1
|
Sinclair AH, Hakimi S, Stanley ML, Adcock RA, Samanez-Larkin GR. Pairing facts with imagined consequences improves pandemic-related risk perception. Proc Natl Acad Sci U S A 2021; 118:e2100970118. [PMID: 34341120 PMCID: PMC8364212 DOI: 10.1073/pnas.2100970118] [Citation(s) in RCA: 19] [Impact Index Per Article: 6.3] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [MESH Headings] [Grants] [Track Full Text] [Download PDF] [Figures] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Indexed: 12/22/2022] Open
Abstract
The COVID-19 pandemic reached staggering new peaks during a global resurgence more than a year after the crisis began. Although public health guidelines initially helped to slow the spread of disease, widespread pandemic fatigue and prolonged harm to financial stability and mental well-being contributed to this resurgence. In the late stage of the pandemic, it became clear that new interventions were needed to support long-term behavior change. Here, we examined subjective perceived risk about COVID-19 and the relationship between perceived risk and engagement in risky behaviors. In study 1 (n = 303), we found that subjective perceived risk was likely inaccurate but predicted compliance with public health guidelines. In study 2 (n = 735), we developed a multifaceted intervention designed to realign perceived risk with actual risk. Participants completed an episodic simulation task; we expected that imagining a COVID-related scenario would increase the salience of risk information and enhance behavior change. Immediately following the episodic simulation, participants completed a risk estimation task with individualized feedback about local viral prevalence. We found that information prediction error, a measure of surprise, drove beneficial change in perceived risk and willingness to engage in risky activities. Imagining a COVID-related scenario beforehand enhanced the effect of prediction error on learning. Importantly, our intervention produced lasting effects that persisted after a 1- to 3-wk delay. Overall, we describe a fast and feasible online intervention that effectively changed beliefs and intentions about risky behaviors.
Collapse
Affiliation(s)
- Alyssa H Sinclair
- Center for Cognitive Neuroscience, Duke University, Durham, NC 27708;
- Department of Psychology and Neuroscience, Duke University, Durham, NC 27708
| | - Shabnam Hakimi
- Center for Cognitive Neuroscience, Duke University, Durham, NC 27708
| | - Matthew L Stanley
- Center for Cognitive Neuroscience, Duke University, Durham, NC 27708
- Department of Psychology and Neuroscience, Duke University, Durham, NC 27708
| | - R Alison Adcock
- Center for Cognitive Neuroscience, Duke University, Durham, NC 27708
- Department of Psychology and Neuroscience, Duke University, Durham, NC 27708
- Department of Psychiatry and Behavioral Sciences, Duke University, Durham, NC 27708
| | - Gregory R Samanez-Larkin
- Center for Cognitive Neuroscience, Duke University, Durham, NC 27708
- Department of Psychology and Neuroscience, Duke University, Durham, NC 27708
| |
Collapse
|
2
|
Sinclair AH, Hakimi S, Stanley ML, Adcock RA, Samanez-Larkin GR. Pairing facts with imagined consequences improves pandemic-related risk perception. Proc Natl Acad Sci U S A 2021; 118:2100970118. [PMID: 34341120 DOI: 10.17605/osf.io/35us2] [Citation(s) in RCA: 2] [Impact Index Per Article: 0.7] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [MESH Headings] [Grants] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Indexed: 05/27/2023] Open
Abstract
The COVID-19 pandemic reached staggering new peaks during a global resurgence more than a year after the crisis began. Although public health guidelines initially helped to slow the spread of disease, widespread pandemic fatigue and prolonged harm to financial stability and mental well-being contributed to this resurgence. In the late stage of the pandemic, it became clear that new interventions were needed to support long-term behavior change. Here, we examined subjective perceived risk about COVID-19 and the relationship between perceived risk and engagement in risky behaviors. In study 1 (n = 303), we found that subjective perceived risk was likely inaccurate but predicted compliance with public health guidelines. In study 2 (n = 735), we developed a multifaceted intervention designed to realign perceived risk with actual risk. Participants completed an episodic simulation task; we expected that imagining a COVID-related scenario would increase the salience of risk information and enhance behavior change. Immediately following the episodic simulation, participants completed a risk estimation task with individualized feedback about local viral prevalence. We found that information prediction error, a measure of surprise, drove beneficial change in perceived risk and willingness to engage in risky activities. Imagining a COVID-related scenario beforehand enhanced the effect of prediction error on learning. Importantly, our intervention produced lasting effects that persisted after a 1- to 3-wk delay. Overall, we describe a fast and feasible online intervention that effectively changed beliefs and intentions about risky behaviors.
Collapse
Affiliation(s)
- Alyssa H Sinclair
- Center for Cognitive Neuroscience, Duke University, Durham, NC 27708;
- Department of Psychology and Neuroscience, Duke University, Durham, NC 27708
| | - Shabnam Hakimi
- Center for Cognitive Neuroscience, Duke University, Durham, NC 27708
| | - Matthew L Stanley
- Center for Cognitive Neuroscience, Duke University, Durham, NC 27708
- Department of Psychology and Neuroscience, Duke University, Durham, NC 27708
| | - R Alison Adcock
- Center for Cognitive Neuroscience, Duke University, Durham, NC 27708
- Department of Psychology and Neuroscience, Duke University, Durham, NC 27708
- Department of Psychiatry and Behavioral Sciences, Duke University, Durham, NC 27708
| | - Gregory R Samanez-Larkin
- Center for Cognitive Neuroscience, Duke University, Durham, NC 27708
- Department of Psychology and Neuroscience, Duke University, Durham, NC 27708
| |
Collapse
|
3
|
Sinclair AH, Hakimi S, Stanley ML, Adcock RA, Samanez-Larkin GR. Pairing facts with imagined consequences improves pandemic-related risk perception. Proc Natl Acad Sci U S A 2021; 118:2100970118. [PMID: 34341120 DOI: 10.31234/osf.io/53a9f] [Citation(s) in RCA: 2] [Impact Index Per Article: 0.7] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [MESH Headings] [Grants] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Indexed: 05/27/2023] Open
Abstract
The COVID-19 pandemic reached staggering new peaks during a global resurgence more than a year after the crisis began. Although public health guidelines initially helped to slow the spread of disease, widespread pandemic fatigue and prolonged harm to financial stability and mental well-being contributed to this resurgence. In the late stage of the pandemic, it became clear that new interventions were needed to support long-term behavior change. Here, we examined subjective perceived risk about COVID-19 and the relationship between perceived risk and engagement in risky behaviors. In study 1 (n = 303), we found that subjective perceived risk was likely inaccurate but predicted compliance with public health guidelines. In study 2 (n = 735), we developed a multifaceted intervention designed to realign perceived risk with actual risk. Participants completed an episodic simulation task; we expected that imagining a COVID-related scenario would increase the salience of risk information and enhance behavior change. Immediately following the episodic simulation, participants completed a risk estimation task with individualized feedback about local viral prevalence. We found that information prediction error, a measure of surprise, drove beneficial change in perceived risk and willingness to engage in risky activities. Imagining a COVID-related scenario beforehand enhanced the effect of prediction error on learning. Importantly, our intervention produced lasting effects that persisted after a 1- to 3-wk delay. Overall, we describe a fast and feasible online intervention that effectively changed beliefs and intentions about risky behaviors.
Collapse
Affiliation(s)
- Alyssa H Sinclair
- Center for Cognitive Neuroscience, Duke University, Durham, NC 27708;
- Department of Psychology and Neuroscience, Duke University, Durham, NC 27708
| | - Shabnam Hakimi
- Center for Cognitive Neuroscience, Duke University, Durham, NC 27708
| | - Matthew L Stanley
- Center for Cognitive Neuroscience, Duke University, Durham, NC 27708
- Department of Psychology and Neuroscience, Duke University, Durham, NC 27708
| | - R Alison Adcock
- Center for Cognitive Neuroscience, Duke University, Durham, NC 27708
- Department of Psychology and Neuroscience, Duke University, Durham, NC 27708
- Department of Psychiatry and Behavioral Sciences, Duke University, Durham, NC 27708
| | - Gregory R Samanez-Larkin
- Center for Cognitive Neuroscience, Duke University, Durham, NC 27708
- Department of Psychology and Neuroscience, Duke University, Durham, NC 27708
| |
Collapse
|
4
|
Bulley A, Schacter DL. Risks, real and imagined. NATURE AGING 2021; 1:628-630. [PMID: 37117766 DOI: 10.1038/s43587-021-00097-5] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Grants] [Track Full Text] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Indexed: 04/30/2023]
Affiliation(s)
- Adam Bulley
- Department of Psychology, Harvard University, Cambridge, MA, USA.
- The University of Sydney, School of Psychology and Brain and Mind Centre, Sydney, New South Wales, Australia.
| | | |
Collapse
|
5
|
Wichlas F, Hofmann V, Strada G, Deininger C. War surgery in Afghanistan: a model for mass causalities in terror attacks? INTERNATIONAL ORTHOPAEDICS 2020; 44:2521-2527. [PMID: 32915284 PMCID: PMC7483489 DOI: 10.1007/s00264-020-04797-2] [Citation(s) in RCA: 2] [Impact Index Per Article: 0.5] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [MESH Headings] [Grants] [Track Full Text] [Download PDF] [Figures] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 06/19/2020] [Accepted: 09/01/2020] [Indexed: 11/29/2022]
Abstract
PURPOSE The aim of the study was to identify solution strategies from a non-governmental (NGO) hospital in a war region for violence-related injuries and to show how high-income countries (HIC) might benefit from this expertise. METHODS NGO trauma hospital in Lashkar Gah, Afghanistan. Four hundred eighty-four war victims admitted in a three month period (February 2016-May 2016) were included. Patients´ characteristics were analyzed. RESULTS The mean age was 23.5 years. Four hundred thirty-four (89.9%) were male, and 50 (10.1%) were female. The most common cause of injury was bullet injuries, shell injuries, and mine injuries. The most common injured body region was the lower extremity, upper extremity, and the chest or the face. Apart from surgical wound care and debridements, which were performed on every wound in the operation theatre, laparotomy was the most common surgical procedure, followed by installation of a chest drainage and amputation. CONCLUSION The surgical expertise and clear pathways outweigh modern infrastructure. In case of a mass casualty incident, fast decision-making with basic diagnostic means in order to take rapid measurements for life-saving therapies could make the difference.
Collapse
Affiliation(s)
- F Wichlas
- Department of Orthopedics and Traumatology, Paracelsus Medical University, Müllner Hauptstrasse 48, 5020, Salzburg, Austria.
- Emergency NGO, Milan, Italy.
| | - V Hofmann
- Department of Orthopedics and Traumatology, Paracelsus Medical University, Müllner Hauptstrasse 48, 5020, Salzburg, Austria
| | | | - C Deininger
- Department of Orthopedics and Traumatology, Paracelsus Medical University, Müllner Hauptstrasse 48, 5020, Salzburg, Austria
| |
Collapse
|
6
|
Bø S, Wolff K. I Can See Clearly Now: Episodic Future Thinking and Imaginability in Perceptions of Climate-Related Risk Events. Front Psychol 2020; 11:218. [PMID: 32153458 PMCID: PMC7046799 DOI: 10.3389/fpsyg.2020.00218] [Citation(s) in RCA: 6] [Impact Index Per Article: 1.5] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [Track Full Text] [Download PDF] [Figures] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 11/25/2019] [Accepted: 01/31/2020] [Indexed: 11/13/2022] Open
Abstract
Climate change is statistical, abstract and difficult to comprehend directly. Imagining a specific, personal episode where you experience consequences of climate change in the future (episodic future thinking) may bring climate change closer, thus increasing the perceived risk of climate-related risk events. We conducted an experiment to test whether episodic future thinking increased the perceived risk of climate-related risk events and climate change in general, as compared to thinking about the future in a general, abstract manner (semantic future thinking). We also tested whether this effect is moderated by how easy it is to imagine the specific climate-related risk event initially. Participants were randomly assigned to an episodic future thinking-condition or a semantic future thinking-condition, and two of the risk events in each condition were related to flooding (difficult to imagine) and two were related to extreme temperature (easy to imagine). The results show no main effect of episodic future thinking on perceived risk, and no interaction effect with imaginability. Contrary to expectations and earlier research, this suggests that episodic future thinking may not influence risk perception.
Collapse
Affiliation(s)
- Simen Bø
- Department of Psychosocial Science, Faculty of Psychology, University of Bergen, Bergen, Norway
| | - Katharina Wolff
- Department of Psychosocial Science, Faculty of Psychology, University of Bergen, Bergen, Norway
| |
Collapse
|