A Dynamic Approach to Economic Priority Setting to Invest in Youth Mental Health and Guide Local Implementation: Economic Protocol for Eight System Dynamics Policy Models

Economic Evaluation of 9 Intersectoral Strategies to Improve Youth Mental Health and Alleviate Financial Burden in Colombia Using System Dynamics Modeling

OBJECTIVES

Limited evidence exists for strategic actions in improving mental health at the youth population-level, particularly in low- and middle-income countries. This study investigates the health and economic impacts of intersectoral mental health programs to inform the optimal suite of interventions for young people in Bogotá, Colombia, where many are at risk of mental disorders and lack access to appropriate health services.

METHODS

This study evaluated 9 interventions compared with business as usual over a projected 10-year time horizon using a system dynamics model developed through a participatory process involving diverse local stakeholders. Sensitivity analyses were performed to account for uncertainties from a healthcare payer perspective.

RESULTS

Anti-bullying, community-based rehabilitation, and online mental health programs were dominant. General practitioner mental health training and gatekeeper suicide prevention training could significantly improve mental health outcomes at an incremental cost-effectiveness ratio below the threshold of US dollars $4890/quality-adjusted life-years. Nevertheless, simultaneously implementing all 9 strategies could produce a synergistic effect, yielding the greatest benefit relative to business as usual with an incremental net monetary benefit of $465 million and an incremental cost-effectiveness ratio of $586 per quality-adjusted life-years gained.

CONCLUSIONS

Combined intersectoral mental health strategies were synergistic and resulted in optimal health outcomes relative to business as usual. The system dynamics approach offers additional attributes to economic evaluation in mental health settings by considering capacity constraints, unintended consequences, and interactions between multiple interventions. It is a valuable approach for decision-makers to effectively and efficiently prioritize and allocate scarce resources in complex public health systems.

Incorporating Complexity and System Dynamics into Economic Modelling for Mental Health Policy and Planning

Care as usual has failed to stem the tide of mental health challenges in children and young people. Transformed models of care and prevention are required, including targeting the social determinants of mental health. Robust economic evidence is crucial to guide investment towards prioritised interventions that are effective and cost-effective to optimise health outcomes and ensure value for money. Mental healthcare and prevention exhibit the characteristics of complex dynamic systems, yet dynamic simulation modelling has to date only rarely been used to conduct economic evaluation in this area. This article proposes an integrated decision-making and planning framework for mental health that includes system dynamics modelling, cost-effectiveness analysis, and participatory model-building methods, in a circular process that is constantly reviewed and updated in a 'living model' ecosystem. We describe a case study of this approach for mental health system policy and planning that synergises the unique attributes of a system dynamics approach within the context of economic evaluation. This kind of approach can help decision makers make the most of precious, limited resources in healthcare. The application of modelling to organise and enable better responses to the youth mental health crisis offers positive benefits for individuals and their families, as well as for taxpayers.

Cost-effectiveness of system-level mental health strategies for young people in the Australian Capital Territory: a dynamic simulation modelling study

BACKGROUND

Regional mental health planning is a key challenge for decision makers because mental health care is a complex, dynamic system. Economic evaluation using a system dynamics modelling approach presents an opportunity for more sophisticated planning and important evidence on the value of alternative investments. We aimed to investigate the cost-effectiveness of eight systems-based interventions targeted at improving the mental health and wellbeing of children, adolescents, and young adults in the Australian Capital Territory (ACT).

METHODS

We assessed eight interventions for children and young people (aged ≤25 years) with low, moderate, and high-to-very-high psychological distress: technology-enabled integrated care, emergency department-based suicide prevention, crisis response service, family education programme, online parenting programme, school-based suicide prevention programme, trauma service for youths, and multicultural-informed care. We developed a system dynamics model for the ACT through a participatory process and calibrated the model with historical data, including population demographics, the prevalence of psychological distress, and mental health services provision. We calculated incremental cost-effectiveness ratios compared with business as usual for cost (AU$) per: quality-adjusted life-year (QALY), suicide death avoided, self-harm related hospital admissions avoided, and mental health-related emergency department presentation, using a 10-year time horizon for health-care and societal perspectives. We investigated uncertainty through probabilistic sensitivity analysis and deterministic sensitivity analysis, including using a 30-year timeframe.

FINDINGS

From a societal perspective, increased investment in technology-enabled integrated care, family education, an online parenting programme, and multicultural-informed care were expected to improve health outcomes (incremental QALYs 4517 [95% UI -3135 to 14 507] for technology-enabled integrated care; 339 [91 to 661] for family education; 724 [114 to 1149] for the online parenting programme; and 137 [88 to 194] for multicultural-informed care) and reduce costs ($-91·4 million [-382·7 to 100·7]; $-12·8 million [-21·0 to -6·6]; $-3·6 million  [-6·3 to 0·2]; and $-3·1 million [-4·5 to -1·8], respectively) compared with business as usual using a 10-year time horizon. The incremental net monetary benefit for the societal perspective for these four interventions was $452 million (-351 to 1555), $40 million (14 to 74), $61 million (9 to 98), and $14 million (9 to 20), respectively, compared with business as usual, when QALYs were monetised using a willingness to pay of $79 930 per QALY. Synergistic effects are anticipated if these interventions were to be implemented concurrently. The univariate and probabilistic sensitivity analyses indicated a high level of certainty in the results. Although emergency department-based suicide prevention and school-based suicide prevention were not cost effective in the base case (41 QALYs [0 to 48], incremental cost $4·1 million [1·2 to 8·2] for emergency department-based suicide prevention; -234 QALYs [-764 to 12], incremental cost $90·3 million [72·2 to 111·0] for school-based suicide prevention) compared with business as usual, there were scenarios for which these interventions could be considered cost effective. A dedicated trauma service for young people (9 QALYs gained [4 to 16], incremental cost $8·3 million [6·8 to 10·0]) and a crisis response service (-11 QALYs gained [-12 to -10], incremental cost $7·8 million [5·1 to 11·0]) were unlikely to be cost effective in terms of QALYs.

INTERPRETATION

Synergistic effects were identified, supporting the combined implementation of technology-enabled integrated care, family education, an online parenting programme, and multicultural-informed care. Synergistic effects, emergent outcomes in the form of unintended consequences, the capability to account for service capacity constraints, and ease of use by stakeholders are unique attributes of a system dynamics modelling approach to economic evaluation.

FUNDING

BHP Foundation.

The economic costs of alcohol-related harms at the local level in New South Wales

INTRODUCTION

Alcohol is a harmful, toxic and addictive substance that causes many diseases and injuries. Alcohol use also incurs a financial cost to the health care system and wider economy. This project aimed to undertake a cost impact analysis of alcohol-related harms at the local level in New South Wales (NSW). The alcohol-related harms costing model is an interactive tool designed for use by local health districts, stakeholders such as Liquor and Gaming NSW, NSW Independent Liquor and Gaming Authority and community stakeholders.

METHODS

Costs included in the analysis were alcohol-related hospitalisations, deaths, crimes, emergency department attendances, outpatient presentations and their impacts on productivity. Two local government areas (LGA) were used as case studies to demonstrate local impacts.

RESULTS

In 2019-2020, the total cost of alcohol-related harms for NSW was estimated at $9 billion, at a rate of $120.3 million per 100,000 population. The total costs were comprised of alcohol-attributable premature mortality ($8.3 billion), non-fatal health care costs ($275 million) and crime costs ($457 million). A comparative analysis of two case study LGAs estimated that alcohol-related harms cost $195 million for the Northern Beaches LGA and $351 million for the Central Coast LGA.

DISCUSSION AND CONCLUSIONS

This research has developed a 'proof-of-concept' model to estimate the cost of alcohol-related harms at the local level in Australia, empowering health agencies and local community stakeholders to use economic evidence in their submissions in response to new liquor licence applications and other policies that impact their local community. This economic evidence can be used to improve the quality of decisions on alcohol regulation and policies. There are a number of future research opportunities that would enhance the economic evidence available to liquor licensing decision-makers.

Guidance on the use of complex systems models for economic evaluations of public health interventions

To help health economic modelers respond to demands for greater use of complex systems models in public health. To propose identifiable features of such models and support researchers to plan public health modeling projects using these models. A working group of experts in complex systems modeling and economic evaluation was brought together to develop and jointly write guidance for the use of complex systems models for health economic analysis. The content of workshops was informed by a scoping review. A public health complex systems model for economic evaluation is defined as a quantitative, dynamic, non-linear model that incorporates feedback and interactions among model elements, in order to capture emergent outcomes and estimate health, economic and potentially other consequences to inform public policies. The guidance covers: when complex systems modeling is needed; principles for designing a complex systems model; and how to choose an appropriate modeling technique. This paper provides a definition to identify and characterize complex systems models for economic evaluations and proposes guidance on key aspects of the process for health economics analysis. This document will support the development of complex systems models, with impact on public health systems policy and decision making.

ForWhen Australian perinatal and infant mental health navigation programme: evaluation protocol

INTRODUCTION

Many parents and carers experience mental health challenges during pregnancy and early postpartum years, and there are cumulative shortfalls in the identification, follow-up, and treatment of those experiencing perinatal and infant mental health (PIMH) challenges. ForWhen is a new national navigation programme in Australia that aims to improve outcomes for families by supporting parents and carers to access PIMH services that best meet their needs. This paper presents the protocol of an evaluation of the ForWhen programme, to be conducted over the first 3 years of its implementation. The specific objectives of the evaluation include examining the characteristics of navigation service delivery, its implementation and clinical impact, and identifying potential moderators of change.

METHODS AND ANALYSIS

Utilising a mixed-methods design, this evaluation will incorporate three phases that reflect the stages of the programme life-cycle: (1) programme description, (2) implementation evaluation and (3) outcomes evaluation. The evaluation will use a mix of quantitative and qualitative data including deidentified routinely collected service data, participant observations, semistructured interviews, surveys and questionnaires, and a resource audit.

DISCUSSION

Evaluation findings will be used to inform the development of a refined clinical navigation model, identify barriers and facilitators to successful navigation programme implementation, examine the impact of the ForWhen programme on client clinical outcomes and health service utilisation, understand how the programme is/can be best embedded in the evolving service system, and assess the cost-effectiveness and sustainability of a national navigation programme in improving health outcomes for PIMH in Australia.

ETHICS AND DISSEMINATION

This research was approved by South Western Sydney Local Health District Human Research Ethics Committee (2021/ETH11611). This study was registered on the Australian New Zealand Clinical Trials Registry (ACTRN12622001443785). Results will be disseminated at conferences, in scientific journals, and in a final evaluation report.

Partnering with Aboriginal and Torres Strait Islander Peoples: An Evaluation Study Protocol to Strengthen a Comprehensive Multi-Scale Evaluation Framework for Participatory Systems Modelling through Indigenous Paradigms and Methodologies

The social and emotional wellbeing of young Aboriginal and Torres Strait Islander peoples should be supported through an Indigenous-led and community empowering approach. Applying systems thinking via participatory approaches is aligned with Aboriginal and Torres Strait Islander research paradigms and can be an effective method to deliver a decision support tool for mental health systems planning for Indigenous communities. Evaluations are necessary to understand the effectiveness and value of such methods, uncover protective and healing factors of social and emotional wellbeing, as well as to promote Aboriginal and Torres Strait Islander self-determination over allocation of funding and resources. This paper presents modifications to a published evaluation protocol for participatory systems modelling to align with critical Aboriginal and Torres Strait Islander guidelines and recommendations to support the social and emotional wellbeing of young people. This paper also presents a culturally relevant participatory systems modelling evaluation framework. Recognizing the reciprocity, strengths, and expertise Aboriginal and Torres Strait Islander methodologies can offer to broader research and evaluation practices, the amended framework presented in this paper facilitates empowering evaluation practices that should be adopted when working with Aboriginal and Torres Strait Islander peoples as well as when working with other diverse, non-Indigenous communities.