Climate variability, socio-economic conditions and vulnerability to malaria infections in Mozambique 2016-2018: a spatial temporal analysis

Potential impact of climatic factors on malaria in Rwanda between 2012 and 2021: a time-series analysis

BACKGROUND

Malaria remains an important public health problem, particularly in sub-Saharan Africa. In Rwanda, where malaria ranks among the leading causes of mortality and morbidity, disease transmission is influenced by climatic factors. However, there is a paucity of studies investigating the link between climate change and malaria dynamics, which hinders the development of effective national malaria response strategies. Addressing this critical gap, this study analyses how climatic factors influence malaria transmission across Rwanda, thereby informing tailored interventions and enhancing disease management frameworks.

METHODS

The study analysed the potential impact of temperature and cumulative rainfall on malaria incidence in Rwanda from 2012 to 2021 using meteorological data from the Rwanda Meteorological Agency and malaria case records from the Rwanda Health Management and Information System. The analysis was performed in two stages. First, district-specific generalized linear models with a quasi-Poisson distribution were applied, which were enhanced by distributed lag non-linear models to explore non-linear and lagged effects. Second, random effects multivariate meta-analysis was employed to pool the estimates and to refine them through best linear unbiased predictions.

RESULTS

A 1-month lag with specific temperature and rainfall thresholds influenced malaria incidence across Rwanda. Average temperature of 18.5 °C was associated with higher malaria risk, while temperature above 23.9 °C reduced the risk. Rainfall demonstrated a dual effect on malaria risk: conditions of low (below 73 mm per month) and high (above 223 mm per month) precipitation correlated with lower risk, while moderate rainfall (87 to 223 mm per month) correlated with higher risk. Seasonal patterns showed increased malaria risk during the major rainy season, while the short dry season presented lower risk.

CONCLUSION

The study underscores the influence of temperature and rainfall on malaria transmission in Rwanda and calls for tailored interventions that are specific to location and season. The findings are crucial for informing policy that enhance preparedness and contribute to malaria elimination efforts. Future research should explore additional ecological and socioeconomic factors and their differential contribution to malaria transmission.

Spatial-temporal analysis of climate and socioeconomic conditions on cholera incidence in Mozambique from 2000 to 2018: an ecological longitudinal retrospective study

OBJECTIVES

This study aims to assess both socioeconomic and climatic factors of cholera morbidity in Mozambique considering both spatial and temporal dimensions.

DESIGN

An ecological longitudinal retrospective study using monthly provincial cholera cases from Mozambican Ministry of Health between 2000 and 2018. The cholera cases were linked to socioeconomic data from Mozambique Demographic and Health Surveys conducted in the period 2000-2018 and climatic data; relative humidity (RH), mean temperature, precipitation and Normalised Difference Vegetation Index (NDVI). A negative binomial regression model in a Bayesian framework was used to model cholera incidence while adjusting for the spatiotemporal covariance, lagged effect of environmental factors and the socioeconomic indicators.

SETTING

Eleven provinces in Mozambique.

RESULTS

Over the 19-year period, a total of 153 941 cholera cases were notified to the surveillance system in Mozambique. Risk of cholera increased with higher monthly mean temperatures above 24°C in comparison to the reference mean temperature of 23°C. At mean temperature of 19°C, cholera risk was higher at a lag of 5-6 months. At a shorter lag of 1 month, precipitation of 223.3 mm resulted in an 57% increase in cholera risk (relative risk, RR 1.57 (95% CI 1.06 to 2.31)). Cholera risk was greatest at 3 lag months with monthly NDVI of 0.137 (RR 1.220 (95% CI 1.042 to 1.430)), compared with the reference value of 0.2. At an RH of 54%, cholera RR was increased by 62% (RR 1.620 (95% CI 1.124 to 2.342)) at a lag of 4 months. We found that ownership of radio RR 0.29, (95% CI 0.109 to 0.776) and mobile phones RR 0.262 (95% CI 0.097 to 0.711) were significantly associated with low cholera risk.

CONCLUSION

The derived lagged patterns can provide appropriate lead times in a climate-driven cholera early warning system that could contribute to the prevention and management of outbreaks.

Field testing of user-friendly perennial malaria chemoprevention packaging in Benin, Côte d'Ivoire and Mozambique

BACKGROUND

Perennial malaria chemoprevention (PMC) aims to protect children at risk from severe malaria by the administration of anti-malarial drugs to children of defined ages throughout the year. Sulfadoxine-pyrimethamine (SP) has been widely used for chemoprevention in Africa and a child-friendly dispersible tablet formulation has recently become available.

METHODS

This qualitative non-interventional observational study was conducted in Benin, Côte d'Ivoire, and Mozambique between February and June 2022. Prototype blister packs, dispensing boxes and job aids designed to support dispersible SP deployment for PMC were evaluated using focus group discussions (FGD) and semi-structured in-depth individual interviews (IDI) with health authorities, health personnel, community health workers (CHWs) and caregivers. The aim was to evaluate knowledge and perceptions of malaria and chemoprevention, test understanding of the tools and identify gaps in understanding, satisfaction, user-friendliness and acceptability, and assess the potential role of CHWs in PMC implementation. Interviews were transcribed and imported to ATLAS.ti for encoding and categorization. Thematic content analysis used deductive and inductive coding with cross-referencing of findings between countries and participants to enrich data interpretation. Continuous comparison across the IDI and FGD permitted iterative, collaborative development of materials.

RESULTS

Overall, 106 participants completed IDIs and 70 contributed to FGDs. Malaria was widely recognised as the most common disease affecting children, and PMC was viewed as a positive intervention to support child health. The role of CHWs was perceived differently by the target groups, with caregivers appreciating their trusted status in the community, whereas health authorities preferred clinic-based deployment of PMC by health professionals. Empirical testing of the prototype blister packs, dispensing boxes and job aids highlighted the context-specific expectations of respondents, such as familiar situations and equipment, and identified areas of confusion or low acceptance. A key finding was the need for a clear product identity reflecting malaria.

CONCLUSION

Simple modifications profoundly affected the perception of PMC and influenced acceptability. Iterative quantitative investigation resulted in PMC-specific materials suited to the local context and socio-cultural norms of the target population with the aim of increasing access to chemoprevention in children most at risk of severe malaria.

Impact of heat on mental health emergency visits: a time series study from all public emergency centres, in Curitiba, Brazil

OBJECTIVES

Quantify the risk of mental health (MH)-related emergency department visits (EDVs) due to heat, in the city of Curitiba, Brazil.

DESIGN

Daily time series analysis, using quasi-Poisson combined with distributed lag non-linear model on EDV for MH disorders, from 2017 to 2021.

SETTING

All nine emergency centres from the public health system, in Curitiba.

PARTICIPANTS

101 452 EDVs for MH disorders and suicide attempts over 5 years, from patients residing inside the territory of Curitiba.

MAIN OUTCOME MEASURE

Relative risk of EDV (RREDV) due to extreme mean temperature (24.5°C, 99th percentile) relative to the median (18.02°C), controlling for long-term trends, air pollution and humidity, and measuring effects delayed up to 10 days.

RESULTS

Extreme heat was associated with higher single-lag EDV risk of RREDV 1.03(95% CI 1.01 to 1.05-single-lag 2), and cumulatively of RREDV 1.15 (95% CI 1.05 to 1.26-lag-cumulative 0-6). Strong risk was observed for patients with suicide attempts (RREDV 1.85, 95% CI 1.08 to 3.16) and neurotic disorders (RREDV 1.18, 95% CI 1.06 to 1.31). As to demographic subgroups, females (RREDV 1.20, 95% CI 1.08 to 1.34) and patients aged 18-64 (RREDV 1.18, 95% CI 1.07 to 1.30) were significantly endangered. Extreme heat resulted in lower risks of EDV for patients with organic disorders (RREDV 0.60, 95% CI 0.40 to 0.89), personality disorders (RREDV 0.48, 95% CI 0.26 to 0.91) and MH in general in the elderly ≥65 (RREDV 0.77, 95% CI 0.60 to 0.98). We found no significant RREDV among males and patients aged 0-17.

CONCLUSION

The risk of MH-related EDV due to heat is elevated for the entire study population, but very differentiated by subgroups. This opens avenue for adaptation policies in healthcare: such as monitoring populations at risk and establishing an early warning systems to prevent exacerbation of MH episodes and to reduce suicide attempts. Further studies are welcome, why the reported risk differences occur and what, if any, role healthcare seeking barriers might play.