Predicting Hotspots and Prioritizing Protected Areas for Endangered Primate Species in Indonesia under Changing Climate

Understanding Multi-Scale and Multi-Species Habitat Selection by Mammals in the Eastern Himalayan Biodiversity Hotspot

Human-induced habitat loss and fragmentation threaten biodiversity in the Eastern Himalayas, a crucial part of the Indo-Myanmar biodiversity hotspot. This study examines the distribution of 10 mammal species in Arunachal Pradesh using a multi-scale ensemble modeling approach, integrating Generalized Linear Models (GLM), Generalized Additive Models (GAM), and MaxEnt to assess habitat suitability. By analyzing 57 environmental predictor variables across multiple spatial scales, we found that elevation is a key determinant for carnivores such as the dhole and the Asiatic golden cat, while herbivores like the northern red muntjac and the mainland serow prefer broadleaf forests. Species distributions showed distinct patterns, with most carnivores concentrated in the south, except for the widely distributed yellow-throated marten. Dhole and leopard cat preferred elevated broadleaf forests, while the Asiatic golden cat favored mixed forests. Herbivores like the northern red muntjac and mainland serow were found at higher elevations, whereas the Indian wild pig preferred grasslands and degraded habitats near human settlements. While protected areas (PAs) exhibited higher species richness, significant suitable habitats also exist outside these regions, underscoring the need for landscape-level conservation strategies. Precipitation seasonality and human population density emerged as significant predictors, highlighting the influence of climatic and anthropogenic factors on habitat suitability. Our findings emphasize the necessity of conserving large, connected landscapes to mitigate human-induced pressures and climate change impacts on these species. By combining spatial modeling with ecological insights, this study provides a framework for prioritizing conservation efforts. Future research should expand data collection across broader temporal and geographic scales and incorporate climate change projections to anticipate species distribution shifts. These findings are critical for guiding effective conservation planning and habitat management in this ecologically rich yet vulnerable region.

Climate change extinctions

Climate change is expected to cause irreversible changes to biodiversity, but predicting those risks remains uncertain. I synthesized 485 studies and more than 5 million projections to produce a quantitative global assessment of climate change extinctions. With increased certainty, this meta-analysis suggests that extinctions will accelerate rapidly if global temperatures exceed 1.5°C. The highest-emission scenario would threaten approximately one-third of species, globally. Amphibians; species from mountain, island, and freshwater ecosystems; and species inhabiting South America, Australia, and New Zealand face the greatest threats. In line with predictions, climate change has contributed to an increasing proportion of observed global extinctions since 1970. Besides limiting greenhouse gases, pinpointing which species to protect first will be critical for preserving biodiversity until anthropogenic climate change is halted and reversed.

Modeling the richness and spatial distribution of the wild relatives of Iranian pears (Pyrus L.) for conservation management

The preservation of the genetic resources of crop wild relatives (CWRs) is crucial for food production systems and is considered a vital measure for global agricultural health and food security. The identification of potential areas where CWRs can thrive is one of the first steps towards their conservation. In this study, we used a maximum entropy model (MaxEnt) to determine the habitat suitability of seven wild relatives of pears (Pyrus L.) for the first time. We aimed to identify high-priority areas for conservation and determine the hotspots for rich biodiversity in Iran. The study showed excellent predictive performance for all species studied (AUC value ≥ 90). The soil depth, solar radiation, minimum temperature of the coldest month (Bio6), and precipitation of the wettest quarter (Bio16) were the main environmental factors that influenced the habitat suitability of all seven species, according to permutation importance. The projected maps revealed that P. elaeagnifolia had the largest suitable habitat area, while P. glabra had the lowest. The results also showed that less than 5% of the suitable habitats for these seven species were in protected areas. This research highlights the need for national preservation policies and the development of cultivation and rehabilitation strategies for these threatened species.

Exploring the distribution and habitat preferences of Polytrichaceae (Bryophyta) in Tibet, China

The Qinghai-Tibet Plateau stands as one of the most ecologically fragile and biodiversity-rich regions globally. Understanding the distribution of different taxa and their relationship with environmental factors is crucial for effective conservation and sustainable management. Polytrichaceae, a significant bryophyte family widely distributed in Tibet, displays distinct structural, morphological, and phylogenetic traits compared to other mosses. Despite its importance, the distribution of Polytrichaceae in Tibet and its correlation with environmental factors have yet to be explored. In this study, we used an optimized Maximum Entropy (MaxEnt) model to explore the potential suitable habitats of Polytrichaceae in Tibet, aiming to clarify their geographic distribution pattern as well as the key environmental influence factors. The model had high accuracy with an average Area Under the Curve (AUC) of 0.933 and True Skill Statistics (TSS) value of 0.789. The results showed that the potential suitability habitats of Polytrichaceae were mainly located in southeastern Tibet, and the low suitable, moderately suitable, and highly suitable habitats accounted for 12.53 %, 6.84 %, and 3.31 % of the total area of Tibet respectively. Unsuitable habitats were mainly located in northwestern Tibet, accounting for about 77.32 %. In Tibet, temperature factors (Mean Temperature of Coldest Quarter (Bio11) and Annual Mean Temperature (Bio1)) played a pivotal role in determining the potential suitable habitats for Polytrichaceae, and elevation, precipitation, and vegetation coverage also had an important influence. The family preferred warm, moist and densely vegetated habitats in Tibet. This study enriched our ecological understanding of bryophyte ecology in this region and provided data-driven support for biodiversity conservation and ecosystem management in Tibet.

Potential impacts of climate change on the geographic distribution of Achillea eriophora DC., a medicinal species endemic to Iran in southwestern Asia

Climate change is considered to rank among the most important global issues affecting species' geographic distributions and biodiversity. Understanding effects of climate change on species can enhance conservation efficacy. In this study, we applied ecological niche modeling (ENM) using maximum entropy (MaxEnt) approaches to predict the potential geographic distribution of Achillea eriophora DC., a medicinal plant species to Iran in southwestern Asia, under current and future climate scenarios. We evaluated potential distributional areas of the species, under two shared socioeconomic pathways (SSP2-4.5 and SSP5-8.5) for the period 2041-2060. Most current potential suitable areas were identified for A. eriophora in montane regions. Our results anticipated that the potential distribution of A. eriophora will expand geographically toward higher elevations and northward. However, the species is expected to experience relatively high losses of suitability in its actual habitats under future climate scenarios. Consequently, we recommend regional-to-national conservation action plans for A. eriophora in its natural habitats.

Human activity and climate change accelerate the extinction risk to non-human primates in China

Human activity and climate change affect biodiversity and cause species range shifts, contractions, and expansions. Globally, human activities and climate change have emerged as persistent threats to biodiversity, leading to approximately 68% of the ~522 primate species being threatened with extinction. Here, we used habitat suitability models and integrated data on human population density, gross domestic product (GDP), road construction, the normalized difference vegetation index (NDVI), the location of protected areas (PAs), and climate change to predict potential changes in the distributional range and richness of 26 China's primate species. Our results indicate that both PAs and NDVI have a positive impact on primate distributions. With increasing anthropogenic pressure, species' ranges were restricted to areas of high vegetation cover and in PAs surrounded by buffer zones of 2.7-4.5 km and a core area of PAs at least 0.1-0.5 km from the closest edge of the PA. Areas with a GDP below the Chinese national average of 100,000 yuan were found to be ecologically vulnerable, and this had a negative impact on primate distributions. Changes in temperature and precipitation were also significant contributors to a reduction in the range of primate species. Under the expected influence of climate change over the next 30-50 years, we found that highly suitable habitat for primates will continue to decrease and species will be restricted to smaller and more peripheral parts of their current range. Areas of high primate diversity are expected to lose from 3 to 7 species. We recommend that immediate action be taken, including expanding China's National Park Program, the Ecological Conservation Redline Program, and the Natural Forest Protection Program, along with a stronger national policy promoting alternative/sustainable livelihoods for people in the local communities adjacent to primate ranges, to offset the detrimental effects of anthropogenic activities and climate change on primate survivorship.

Climate Change May Pose Additional Threats to the Endangered Endemic Species Encalypta buxbaumioidea in China

Rare and endangered plant species (REPs) are important in biodiversity conservation, and some REPs with narrow habitats are facing serious challenges from climate change. Encalypta buxbaumioidea T. Cao, C, Gao & X, L. Bai is an endangered bryophyte species that is endemic to China. To explore the consequences of climate change on the geographic distribution of this endangered species, we used maximum entropy to predict the potential distribution of this species in China under current and three future scenarios (RCP 2.6, RCP 4.5, and RCP 8.5) of two time periods (2050 and 2070) in China and assessed its conservation gaps. Twelve species occurrence sites and nine environmental variables were used in the modeling process. The results show that E. buxbaumioidea distribution is affected mainly by the annual mean temperature, isothermality, precipitation of the coldest quarter, and NDVI. According to species response curves, this species preferred habitats with annual mean temperature from −3 to 6 °C, precipitation of the coldest quarter from 14 to 77 mm, isothermality of more than 70%, and NDVI in the second quarter from 0.15 to 0.68. Currently, the most suitable habitat for this species is mainly distributed in the Qinghai–Tibet plateau, which is about 1.97 × 105 km2. The range would sharply reduce to 0.13–0.56% under future climate change. Nature reserves overlap with only 7.32% of the current distribution and would cover a much less portion of the area occupied by the species in the future scenarios, which means the current protected areas network is insufficient. Our results show that endangered bryophyte species are susceptible to environmental stress, especially climate change; therefore, the habitats of bryophytes should be taken into account when it comes to setting up protected areas.

Prioritizing Areas for Primate Conservation in Argentina

Argentina lies within the southernmost distributional range of five neotropical primates, the brown howler monkey Alouatta guariba, the black-and-gold howler monkey Alouatta caraya, the black-horned capuchin Sapajus nigritus, the Azara’s capuchin Sapajus cay, and the Azara’s owl monkey Aotus azarae; the first three of which are globally threatened. These species occupy different ecoregions: the Alto Paraná Atlantic forest, the Araucaria moist forest, the humid Chaco, the Southern Cone Mesopotamian savanna, the Paraná Ffooded savanna, and the Southern Andean Yungas. The recently approved National Primate Conservation Plan of Argentina calls for identifying priority areas to focus conservation actions for these species. We used species distribution models to estimate species ranges and then used the Zonation software to perform a spatial conservation prioritization analysis based on primate habitat quality and connectivity to identify potential areas of importance at national and ecoregional levels. Only 7.2% (19,500 km2) of the area inhabited by primates in Argentina is under protection. Outside the current protected areas, the top-ranked 1% and 5% priority areas identified in our analysis covered 1894 and 7574 km2, respectively. The top 1% areas were in the Atlantic forest of Misiones province, where S. nigritus, A. guariba, and A. caraya are distributed, and in the humid portion of eastern Chaco and Formosa provinces, where A. azarae and A. caraya are present. The top 5% areas included portions of the Yungas, where S. cay is the only primate present. Priority areas in Chaco and Formosa provinces are particularly relevant because of the paucity of protected areas and the high deforestation rate. The endangered A. guariba population will benefit from the better protection of the priority areas of Misiones. The potential priority areas proposed herein, considered within a context of a broad participatory process involving relevant stakeholders and local people, will help guide new and innovative conservation policies and practices while supporting management objectives.

Ecotourism Disturbance on an Endemic Endangered Primate in the Huangshan Man and the Biosphere Reserve of China: A Way to Move Forward

Simple Summary

How to realize the sustainability of economic development and animal protection is a significant problem faced by Man and the Biosphere reserves. Although there are many theoretical frameworks, there is still a lack of supportive ecological evidence. This study analyzed aspects of the local human population, economic growth, number of tourists, and ticket income data of Huangshan Man and Biosphere Reserve (HMBR) as well as population and distribution changes in the flagship species (Tibetan macaque) in HMBR over a 30 year period. We found that after 30 years of implementing a sustainable development strategy in HMBR, the local economy and the population of Tibetan macaques have increased simultaneously. With economic growth, more funds for protection have been invested, improving the local environment significantly and expanding the existing distribution of the Tibetan macaque population. This study provides strong evidence for the sustainable development of Man and Biosphere reserves. We propose that economic and wildlife population growth and distribution area measures constitute a critical standard for the evaluation of sustainable development.

Abstract

The primary purpose of the Man and the Biosphere Program is the sustainable development of both the economy and nature conservation activities. Although the effectiveness of eco-tourism to reach this goal has been proposed, due to the lack of long-term monitoring data and a model species, there has been no obvious mechanism to evaluate the effectiveness of this policy. This study explored the effectiveness of the sustainable development policy of HMBR based on 30 years data of monitoring the Tibetan macaque, local human population, visitors, and annual ecotourism income in Huangshan by estimating species habitat suitability and the impact of ecotourism. The results showed increases in the income for the local human population, the number of visitors, and annual eco-tourism. Simultaneously, the reserve’s Tibetan macaque population size and suitable habitat areas increased. The macaques expanded their habitat to the low-altitude buffer zone (400–800 m), an area with lower eco-tourism disturbance. Scenic spots had a significant negative impact on habitat suitability (the substantially increased contributions of scenic spots from 0.71% to 32.88%). Our results and methods provide a suitable evaluation framework for monitoring the sustainable development and effectiveness of eco-tourism and wildlife conservation in Man and the Biosphere reserves.

Modeling of Valeriana wallichii Habitat Suitability and Niche Dynamics in the Himalayan Region under Anticipated Climate Change

An increase in atmospheric greenhouse gases necessitates the use of species distribution models (SDMs) in modeling suitable habitats and projecting the impact of climate change on the future range shifts of the species. The present study is based on the BIOMOD ensemble approach to map the currently suitable habitats and predict the impact of climate change on the niche shift of Valeriana wallichii. We also studied its niche dynamics using the ecospat package in R software. Values of the area under curve (AUC) and true skill statistics (TSS) were highly significant (>0.9), which shows that the model has run better. From 19 different bioclimatic variables, only 8 were retained after correlation, among which bio_17 (precipitation of driest quarter), bio_1 (annual mean temperature), and bio_12 (annual mean precipitation) received the highest gain. Under future climate change, the suitable habitats will be significantly contracted by −94% (under representative concentration pathway RCP 8.5 for 2070) and −80.22% (under RCP 8.5 for 2050). There is a slight increase in habitat suitability by +16.69% (RCP 4.5 for 2050) and +8.9% (RCP 8.5 for 2050) under future climate change scenarios. The equivalency and similarity tests of niche dynamics show that the habitat suitability for current and future climatic scenarios is comparable but not identical. Principal Component Analysis (PCA) analysis shows that climatic conditions will be severely affected between current and future scenarios. From this study, we conclude that the habitats of Valeriana wallichii are highly vulnerable to climate shifts. This study can be used to alleviate the threat to this plant by documenting the unexplored populations, restoring the degraded habitats through rewilding, and launching species recovery plans in the natural habitats.

Bird Assemblages in Coffee Agroforestry Systems and Other Human Modified Habitats in Indonesia

Simple Summary

Given the high degree of deforestation in the tropics due to shifting agriculture, it is a priority for conservation to find sustainable agriculture systems. We assessed bird communities over 1228 plots from 21 sites in the highly populated island of Java, Indonesia. We found that commercial coffee polycultures (i.e., fields comprised of coffee plants, other crops and/or fruit trees, and diverse shade trees) could sustain similar levels of bird abundance, diversity, and richness than coffee systems under natural forests and community managed forests. Commercial coffee polyculture fields host higher bird abundance, diversity, and richness than sun-exposed coffee fields, fields with other crops or fruit trees, and tree farms. We provide evidence that complex commercial agroforestry systems can host similar levels of biodiversity to agroforestry systems under natural forest.

Abstract

Deforestation in the tropics is mainly driven by the need to expand agriculture and forestry land. Tropical cropland has also undergone a process of intensification, particularly evident in regions that are the main exporters of deforestation-driven commodities. Around 25 million people in the world depend on coffee production, which has a profound contribution to global biodiversity loss through agricultural extensification and intensification. Nevertheless, coffee agroforestry systems have been postulated to serve as an alternative refuge for biodiversity across different regions. We aim to compare bird abundance, diversity, and richness in commercial polyculture coffee systems (i.e., the highest degree of habitat complexity that can be achieved in coffee fields after deforestation) with other coffee agroforestry systems and human modified habitats in Java, Indonesia. We collected data in 21 sites (1228 points) on Java from February to August 2021 using the point sampling method. Via generalised additive models, we tested whether the abundance, diversity, and richness of birds were different between different human modified habitats including other potential predictors such as elevation, distance to protected areas, shade tree richness, and plant diversity. Using the non-metric multidimensional scaling, we tested whether there was a difference in terms of the composition of foraging guilds between habitats. Commercial polyculture coffee fields can sustain levels of bird abundance, diversity, and richness comparable to agroforestry systems under natural forest, and higher than sun coffee and shaded monoculture coffee, and of other human modified habitats such as crop/fruit fields and tree farms. Coffee agroforestry systems have a higher proportion of nectarivores, insectivores, and frugivores than other systems that can sustain high diversity and richness of birds such as paddy fields that mainly have granivores and carnivores. Complex polycultures can represent an avenue for the future of sustainable agriculture in conditions where deforestation rates are high and in crops such as coffee, which maintain high yield in the presence of diverse shade.

Climate Change Increases the Expansion Risk of Helicoverpa zea in China According to Potential Geographical Distribution Estimation

Helicoverpa zea, a well-documented and endemic pest throughout most of the Americas, affecting more than 100 species of host plants. It is a quarantine pest according to the Asia and Pacific Plant Protection Commission (APPPC) and the catalog of quarantine pests for plants imported to the People's Republic of China. Based on 1781 global distribution records of H. zea and eight bioclimatic variables, the potential geographical distributions (PGDs) of H. zea were predicted by using a calibrated MaxEnt model. The contribution rate of bioclimatic variables and the jackknife method were integrated to assess the significant variables governing the PGDs. The response curves of bioclimatic variables were quantitatively determined to predict the PGDs of H. zea under climate change. The results showed that: (1) four out of the eight variables contributed the most to the model performance, namely, mean diurnal range (bio2), precipitation seasonality (bio15), precipitation of the driest quarter (bio17) and precipitation of the warmest quarter (bio18); (2) PGDs of H. zea under the current climate covered 418.15 × 104 km2, and were large in China; and (3) future climate change will facilitate the expansion of PGDs for H. zea under shared socioeconomic pathways (SSP) 1-2.6, SSP2-4.5, and SSP5-8.5 in both the 2030s and 2050s. The conversion of unsuitable to low suitability habitat and moderately to high suitability habitat increased by 8.43% and 2.35%, respectively. From the present day to the 2030s, under SSP1-2.6, SSP2-4.5 and SSP5-8.5, the centroid of the suitable habitats of H. zea showed a general tendency to move eastward; from 2030s to the 2050s, under SSP1-2.6 and SSP5-8.5, it moved southward, and it moved slightly northward under SSP2-4.5. According to bioclimatic conditions, H. zea has a high capacity for colonization by introduced individuals in China. Customs ports should pay attention to host plants and containers of H. zea and should exchange information to strengthen plant quarantine and pest monitoring, thus enhancing target management.

Antimicrobial Activity of Ethanolic Extract of Sempur (Dillenia suffruticosa (Griff.) Martelli) Leaves against Pathogenic Microorganisms

Sempur (Dillenia suffruticosa) leaves are known as a traditional medicine for the people of Bangka-Belitung Island. The local people empirically utilize the boiled water of D. suffruticosa leaves as anti-diarrhea. However, the antimicrobial activity of the ethanol extract of D. suffruticosa leaves has not been reported. This study aims to determine the antimicrobial activity of the ethanol extract of D. suffruticosa leaves against several microorganisms: Staphylococcus aureus as Gram-positive bacteria, Escherichia coli as Gram-negative bacteria, and Candida albicans as fungi. Extraction was carried out by maceration method with 70% ethanol, then screened for phytochemical constituents. The antimicrobial test was carried out by the disc diffusion method using Nutrient Agar (NA) for bacteria, and Sabouraud Dextrose Agar (SDA) for fungi. The results of phytochemical screening showed that the ethanol extract of D. suffruticosa leaves contained alkaloids, flavonoids, tannins, and saponins. The antimicrobial test showed that the extract of D. suffruticosa leaves could inhibit the growth of S. aureus at concentrations of 10%, 20%, and 40% were 8.35±0.05; 9.34±0.32; and 10.52±0.22, respectively. The ethanol extract of D. suffruticosa leaves could inhibit the growth of S. aureus, whereas E. coli and C. albicans did not show any activity.