Global Food Security under COVID-19: Comparison and Enlightenment of Policy Responses in Different Countries

Ensuring food sovereignty and nutritional sustainability in Egypt

Understanding Egypt's dependence on wheat imports is crucial for enhancing food security and economic stability. This study aims to identify the extent of Egypt's wheat import dependency and recommend measures for increasing food self-sufficiency. We employed index analysis and an econometric model to analyze data sourced from the Food and Agriculture Organization (FAO), Observatory of Economic Complexity (OEC), Chicago Mercantile Exchange (CME), World Bank (WB), and Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD). Quantitative and qualitative indicators of wheat production and consumption were examined. Key findings include that Egypt's food insecurity levels remain unchanged, and the country faces threats from rising global food prices, low-quality agricultural land, and climate change, which is expected to reduce cereal yields by 6-15 %. Econometric analysis revealed that a 1 % increase in population growth and protein intake results in a 1.09 % and 3.63 % increase in wheat imports, respectively, while a 1 % increase in wheat consumption leads to a 0.87 % decrease in wheat imports. These findings suggest the need for Egypt to diversify its agriculture by adopting less water-intensive crops and improving irrigation efficiency. Future research should explore non-linear models, recent data, and qualitative factors to build on these insights and further inform policy development.

From Attitude to Behavior: The Effect of Residents' Food Waste Attitudes on Their Food Waste Behaviors in Shanghai

Preventing food waste is important. Analyzing the effects of food waste attitudes on urban residents' waste production behaviors is necessary to reduce food waste. As Shanghai is a mega-city with a population of 24 million people, once food is adequately supplied, more attention is paid to the safety of food in terms of quantity, quality, and nutrition. COVID-19 gave a shock to the food supply in Shanghai, which in turn resulted in food waste behavior. The moderating effect of pandemic during the COVID-19 is one that has rarely been mentioned in previous studies. An investigation of urban residents was conducted in Shanghai. A total of 1030 valid questionnaires were collected in October 2020. This study examined the influence of food waste attitudes on food waste behavior under the moderating effects of pandemic expectations, quantity safety, quality safety, and price stability using a multivariate ordered probit model. The results show that food waste attitudes had a significant negative effect on food waste behavior at a p < 0.01 level of significance, which means that the more people feel shame about food waste, the less food waste they will have. The interaction coefficient between food waste attitudes and pandemic expectations was positive at a p < 0.1 level of significance. This paper concludes with strategies for dealing with food waste in the future.

A surge in food insecurity during the COVID-19 pandemic in a cohort in Mexico City

BACKGROUND

The COVID-19 pandemic has not only caused tremendous loss of life and health but has also greatly disrupted the world economy. The impact of this disruption has been especially harsh in urban settings of developing countries. We estimated the impact of the pandemic on the occurrence of food insecurity in a cohort of women living in Mexico City, and the socioeconomic characteristics associated with food insecurity severity.

METHODS

We analyzed data longitudinally from 685 women in the Mexico City-based ELEMENT cohort. Food insecurity at the household level was gathered using the Latin American and Caribbean Food Security Scale and measured in-person during 2015 to 2019 before the pandemic and by telephone during 2020-2021, in the midst of the pandemic. Fluctuations in the average of food insecurity as a function of calendar time were modeled using kernel-weighted local polynomial regression. Fixed and random-effects ordinal logistic regression models of food insecurity were fitted, with timing of data collection (pre-pandemic vs. during pandemic) as the main predictor.

RESULTS

Food insecurity (at any level) increased from 41.6% during the pre-pandemic period to 53.8% in the pandemic stage. This increase was higher in the combined severe-moderate food insecurity levels: from 1.6% pre-pandemic to 16.8% during the pandemic. The odds of severe food insecurity were 3.4 times higher during the pandemic relative to pre-pandemic levels (p<0.01). Socioeconomic status quintile (Q) was significantly related to food insecurity (Q2 OR = 0.35 p<0.1, Q3 OR = 0.48 p = 0.014, Q4 OR = 0.24 p<0.01, and Q5 OR = 0.17 p<0.01), as well as lack of access to social security (OR = 1.69, p = 0.01), and schooling (OR = 0.37, p<0.01).

CONCLUSIONS

Food insecurity increased in Mexico City households in the ELEMENT cohort as a result of the COVID-19 pandemic. These results contribute to the body of evidence suggesting that governments should implement well-designed, focalized programs in the context of economic crisis such as the one caused by COVID-19 to prevent families from the expected adverse health and well-being consequences associated to food insecurity, especially for the most vulnerable.

Impact of COVID-19 on food security and diet quality in Chilanga District, Zambia

INTRODUCTION

Food security and nutrition have been severely impacted during the COVID-19 pandemic, particularly in low- and middle-income countries (LMICs). We aimed to quantify the impacts of the pandemic on food security and diet diversity within Chilanga District in Zambia and identify target areas for high-impact social protection and safety net programs.

METHODS

We conducted a cross-sectional study in Chilanga district immediately after the Omicron variant surge in February 2022. Diet quality and food security were assessed based on a household diet questionnaire and a Minimum Dietary Diversity-Women (MDD-W) score was calculated. A paired t-test was used to determine whether there was a statistically significant change in the MDD-W score and McNemar test was used to investigate the change in food security between the pre- and peri-COVID-19 period.

RESULTS

Compared to the pre-COVID-19 period, there were increases in food prices across the board in the peri-COVID-19 period and decreased consumption of key food categories including legumes, dairy and vitamin A rich foods. Despite high rates of food insecurity, only 6.6% of surveyed households received any cash or in-kind assistance from a government agency, non-profit, or other organization in the post-COVID-19 period.

CONCLUSION

The COVID-19 pandemic had significant impacts on food security and dietary diversity in Chilanga district. This is particularly relevant in the low-income communities that we surveyed, which had pre-existing challenges with food security. Additional resources must be invested in Chilanga District and similarly affected areas to address this gap in access to food and promote national equity. Trial Registration N/A.

Effects of Policy Intervention on Food System Resilience to Emergency Risk Shock: Experience from China during COVID-19 Pandemic

Achieving the goal of zero hunger within the goal of sustainable development requires improving the resilience of food systems to various types of risk shocks; food systems have shown significant vulnerability to COVID-19 outbreaks and transmission. By analyzing the impact of China's lockdown policy and food security emergency policy in 2020 on food prices during the COVID-19 pandemic, we can clarify the role of policy intervention in enhancing the resilience of the food system, which can provide guidance, using China's experience, for dealing with global food safety emergencies in the future. Firstly, we selected Beijing, Shanghai and Guangdong as food-consuming areas, and Shandong, Henan, and Hubei as food-producing areas. We also collected food security emergency policy data from the Chinese government website during the COVID-19 pandemic. Secondly, a difference-in-difference method was used to observe that Chinese cabbage and pork prices in the main food-producing areas and food-consuming areas rose more obviously after the adoption of lockdown policy, and Chinese cabbage and pork prices in the food-consuming areas increased more obviously than those in food-producing areas. However, staple food prices have not risen significantly. Thirdly, the response of four kinds of food prices to the food security emergency policy is analyzed quantitatively and graphically using the food price volatility index and food price increase rate; we observed that the response of food prices to the food security emergency policy is related to the food types and regions. For food types, the fluctuation degree and increase in Chinese cabbage and pork prices decreased significantly after the adoption of the food security emergency policy. For regions, when the food security emergency policy was adopted, the food prices in the main food-consuming areas fluctuated more obviously than those in food-producing areas. Finally, we found that the implementation of the transport policy and the joint supply emergency policy in the main producing and consuming areas has played a very significant and positive role in stabilizing food prices.

Study on the spatio-temporal evolution and influencing factors of farmland abandonment on a county scale

The protection of farmland resources is related to world food security, as well as the smooth realization of the goals of UN 2030 Agenda for Sustainable Development and China's Rural Revitalization Plan. As the most active region in the global economic development and one of the main grain producing areas, the problem of farmland abandonment in the Yangtze River Delta gradually appears with the rapid development of urbanization. Therefore, based on the interpretation data of remote sensing images and field survey data of three periods in 2000, 2010, and 2018, this study used Moran's I and geographical barycenter model to reveal the spatiotemporal evolution law of farmland abandonment in Pingyang County of the Yangtze River Delta. And then, this study selected 10 indicators covering four categories: geography, proximity, distance, and policy, and used random forest model to reveal the main influencing factors of farmland abandonment in the study area. The results showed that the abandoned farmland increased from 441.58 hm² in 2000 to 5797.40 hm² in 2018. The hot spot and barycenter of land abandonment gradually shifted from the western mountainous areas to the eastern plain areas. Altitude and slope were the main factors affecting the farmland abandonment. The high the altitude and the great the slope, the farmland abandonment in mountainous areas were serious. The proximity factors had a greater impact on the expansion of farmland abandonment from 2000 to 2010, and then the impact weakened. In view of the above analysis, the countermeasures and suggestions for maintaining food security were finally put forward.

Impact evaluation of a community nutrition and livelihood program on child nutrition in rural Bangladesh

Given the high prevalence of child undernutrition in Bangladesh, multi-sectoral approaches involving livelihood promotion have potential to mitigate the burden of undernutrition. This study examined the impact of an economic development (ED) program providing poultry assets, gardening skills and saving training added to the Positive Deviant (PD)/Hearth program (PDH/ED), compared to PD/Hearth only (PDH). A total of 1029 children who attended PD/Hearth sessions in September-November 2018 at 6-13 months of age were enrolled in the cohort study in July-August 2019. The cohort, comprised of 532 children in the PDH/ED group and 593 children in the PDH group, was reassessed in November 2020. The program impact on child nutrition, food security, crop production, dietary quality and household income was estimated using a difference-in-differences approach accounting for the sociodemographic differences between PDH/ED and PDH groups. Compared to the PDH group, the PDH/ED group showed increases in child dietary diversity score (DDS) (+0.32), child minimum dietary diversity (13.7 percentage points [pp]), and maternal DDS (+0.28) (all p < 0.05). From 2019 to 2020, the PDH/ED households improved food security by 12.6 pp and diversified crop production (bananas (9.7 pp), papaya (11.1 pp), carrots (3.8 pp) and lemons (5.9 pp)), and increased the proportion of annual income ≥60,000 Taka by 12.4 pp and last month income ≥5000 Taka by 7.8 pp, compared to PDH group (all p < 0.05). However, there was no impact on child nutritional status, morbidity, livestock ownership and total annual/last income. Incorporating an ED program into nutrition programming could benefit food security and dietary diversity in rural Bangladesh.

Effects of the COVID-19 Pandemic on Health Behaviors of Higher Education Students in Ghana: A Cross-Sectional Study

Stressful events can significantly impact health behaviors of tertiary students in various ways. Many studies reported adverse alterations in health behaviors during the COVID-19 pandemic. However, there is limited knowledge about students from sub-Saharan African countries. Therefore, this study aimed to assess effects of the COVID-19 pandemic on the health behaviors of Ghanaian tertiary students, with an emphasis on the association between sleep and other health behaviors. A cross-sectional study with eligible tertiary students from the Kwame Nkrumah University of Science and Technology in Ghana (n = 129) was conducted. An online survey assessed quality and duration of sleep, financial stress, dietary risk, alcohol misuse, and physical exercise using validated tools. Health behaviors did not differ by gender. The COVID-19 pandemic negatively affected health behaviors for many students including dietary intake (20.2%), sleep quality (20.2%) and duration (81.4%), alcohol consumption (3.1%), exercise frequency (4.1%), and exercise intensity (38%). Shorter sleep duration was linked with greater alcohol misuse scores (p < 0.05). A majority of the students (56%) had increased financial stress during the pandemic. This study contributes important insights into the effects that stressful events such as a pandemic have on the health of higher education students in sub-Saharan Africa.

A new face of food security: A global perspective of the COVID-19 pandemic

COVID-19 has impacted the world economy and food system in many aspects. We conducted a comprehensive examination of global food security during the COVID-19 pandemic by considering the food security index and its four key pillars (affordability, availability, quality and safety, and natural resources and resilience) for 102 countries. In addition to the fixed effect panel data estimator, the Method of Moments Quantile regression is useful for disaggregating the impact of the COVID-19 pandemic in relation to inflation, economic growth, urbanization, and agricultural land on global food security among countries with different levels of food security. We found that COVID-19 has negatively affected food security globally, especially in countries with a low food security level. The effect of income per capita and urbanization rate on the food security index is positive and statistically significant across all quantiles. Inflation rate and agricultural land, however, adversely affect food security, and this effect is stronger for countries with lower levels of food security. The results of affordability, availability, quality, and safety, and natural resources and resilience models provide meaningful implications for governments and policymakers to build resilience in food systems and to be better prepared for future crises and disruptions in the food supply.

Parental Perspectives of the Impact of COVID-19 Lockdown on Food-Related Behaviors: Systematic Review

Home confinement during the COVID-19 pandemic has been accompanied by dramatic changes in household food dynamics that can significantly influence health. This systematic literature review presents parental perspectives of the impact of COVID-19 lockdown (up to 30 June 2022) on food preparation and meal routines, as well as other food-related behaviors, capturing both favorable and unfavorable changes in the household food environment. Themes and trends are identified and associations with other lifestyle factors are assessed. Overall, families enjoyed more time together around food, including planning meals, cooking, and eating together. Eating more diverse foods and balanced home-cooked meals (e.g., fresh fruit and vegetables) was combined with overeating and increased snacking (e.g., high-calorie snacks, desserts, and sweets), as parents became more permissive towards food; however, food insecurity increased among families with the lowest income. Adoption of meal planning skills and online shopping behavior emerged alongside behaviors aimed at self-sufficiency, such as bulk purchasing and stockpiling of non-perishable processed foods. These results are an important first step in recognizing how this pandemic may be affecting the family food environment, including low-income families. Future obesity prevention and treatment initiatives, but also ongoing efforts to address food management, parental feeding practices, and food insecurity, can account for these changes moving forward.

Multi-Scenario Simulation Analysis of Grain Production and Demand in China during the Peak Population Period

The transformation of dietary structure brought about by economic development in populous countries is expected to trigger an increase in grain demand, which will put enormous pressure on the grain supply in these nations and even globally. We simulated nine demand scenarios for 2020-2050 based on China's dataset for 15 kinds of grains from 1961-2018. The results show that the maximum difference between the predicted grain demand is 323.8 Mt, equal to the total grain consumption of approximately 600 million Chinese people in one year. To capture which demand scenarios will be met when grain productivity gradually improves within reasonable ranges, we present three projections from the production side. In particular, Projection 1 (P1), which maintains productivity at the current level, only fulfills the projected demand for Scenarios 1-LL, 2-LM, 4-ML, and 7-HL and falls short of the maximum value (Scenario 9-HH) by 117 Mt, which requires an additional 250,000 ha of arable land resources to fill the gap. After raising the preset value of grain yield, the productivity of Projection 2 in turn satisfies the demand scenario 5-MM. When both set variables (grain yields and arable area) increase simultaneously, the output of Projection 3 increases by 15.3% over P1. However, it still lags behind the demand of 68 million tons in Scenario 9-HH, thus implying uncertainty in China's vision of meeting the goal of 95% grain self-sufficiency. Rather than pursuing a single outcome, we discuss multiple possibilities for China's future grain balance and emphasize the adjusting and compensating role of grain trade and storage in the whole system. Ultimately, this paper calls for a better understanding of the supply-demand gap therein and its future trends to support national grain security as well as global sustainable food policies.