A Long-Term Trend Study of Tuberculosis Incidence in China, India and United States 1992-2017: A Joinpoint and Age-Period-Cohort Analysis

Prevalence and spatial distribution characteristics of human echinococcosis: A county-level modeling study in southern Xinjiang, China

Objectives

Human echinococcosis remains an important public health problem. The aim of this study was to analyze the prevalence and spatial distribution characteristics of human echinococcosis cases in southern Xinjiang, China from 2005 to 2021.

Methods

Human echinococcosis cases were collected from the National Infectious Disease Reporting System. Joinpoint regression analysis was performed to explore the trends. Spatial autocorrelation, hot spot analysis, as well as spatial-temporal clustering analysis were conducted to confirm the distribution and risk factors.

Results

A total of 4580 cases were reported in southern Xinjiang during 2005-2021, with a mean annual incidence of 2.56/100,000. Echinococcosis incidence showed an increasing trend from 2005 to 2017 (APC = 17.939, 95%CI: 13.985 to 22.029) and a decreasing trend from 2017 to 2021 (APC = -18.769, 95%CI: 28.157 to -8.154). Echinococcosis cases had a positive spatial autocorrelation in 2005-2021 (Moran's I = 0.19, P < 0.05). The disease hotspots were located in the east and west in these areas, then returned to the east clusters, including Hejing, Heshuo, Wuqia, Atushi, Aheqi, and Yanqi Hui Autonomous County. Meanwhile, spatial-temporal analysis identified the first cluster comprised of five counties (cities): Yanqi Hui Autonomous County, Korla City, Bohu County, Hejing County, and Heshuo County. And secondary clusters 1-3 are predominantly in Wushi County, Aheqi County, Keping County, Atushi City, Wuqia County and Cele County.

Conclusions

Our findings suggest that echinococcosis is still an important zoonotic parasitic disease in southern Xinjiang, yet it showed a certain degree of spatial clustering. It is crucial to implement comprehensive prevention and control measures to effectively combat the epidemic of echinococcosis.

Comparison of different classification systems for pulmonary nodules: a multicenter retrospective study in China

BACKGROUND

To compare the diagnostic performance of Lung-RADS (lung imaging-reporting and data system) 2022 and PNI-GARS (pulmonary node imaging-grading and reporting system).

METHODS

Pulmonary nodules (PNs) were selected at four centers, namely, CQ Center (January 1, 2018-December 31, 2021), HB Center (January 1, 2021-June 30, 2022), SC Center (September 1, 2021-December 31, 2021), and SX Center (January 1, 2021-December 31, 2021). PNs were divided into solid nodules (SNs), partial solid nodules (PSNs) and ground-glass nodules (GGNs), and they were then classified by the Lung-RADS and PNI-GARS. The sensitivity, specificity and agreement rate were compared between the two systems by the χ2 test.

RESULTS

For SN and PSN, the sensitivity of PNI-GARS and Lung-RADS was close (SN 99.8% vs. 99.4%, P < 0.001; PSN 99.9% vs. 98.4%, P = 0.015), but the specificity (SN 51.2% > 35.1%, PSN 13.3% > 5.7%, all P < 0.001) and agreement rate (SN 81.1% > 74.5%, P < 0.001, PSN 94.6% > 92.7%, all P < 0.05) of PNI-GARS were superior to those of Lung-RADS. For GGN, the sensitivity (96.5%) and agreement rate (88.6%) of PNI-GARS were better than those of Lung-RADS (0, 18.5%, P < 0.001). For the whole sample, the sensitivity (98.5%) and agreement rate (87.0%) of PNI-GARS were better than Lung-RADS (57.5%, 56.5%, all P < 0.001), whereas the specificity was slightly lower (49.8% < 53.4%, P = 0.003).

CONCLUSION

PNI-GARS was superior to Lung-RADS in diagnostic performance, especially for GGN.

Trends and Projection of the Incidence of Active Pulmonary Tuberculosis in Southwestern China: Age-Period-Cohort Analysis

BACKGROUND

The control of pulmonary tuberculosis (PTB) is critical for achieving the vision of World Health Organization's End TB goal.

OBJECTIVE

This study analyzes the temporal trends in PTB incidence associated with age, period, and birth cohorts from 2006 to 2020 in Yunnan, China; projects the PTB burden till 2030; and explores the drivers of PTB incidence.

METHODS

The aggregated PTB incidence rates between 2005 and 2020 were obtained from the National Notifiable Disease Reporting System. We used the age-period-cohort model to evaluate the age, period, and cohort effects on PTB incidence. We applied the Bayesian age-period-cohort model to project future PTB incidence from 2021 to 2030. We applied the decomposition algorithm to attribute the incidence trends to population aging, population growth, and age-specific changes from 2006 to 2030.

RESULTS

From 2006 to 2020, the PTB incidence in Yunnan was relatively stable, although the absolute number showed an increase. The net drift was -1.56% (95% CI -2.41% to -0.70%). An M-shaped bimodal local drift and a longitudinal age curve were observed. The overall local drift was below zero for most age groups except for the age groups of 15-19 years (2.37%, 95% CI -0.28% to 5.09%) and 50-54 years (0.41%, 95% CI -1.78% to 2.64%). The highest risk of PTB incidence was observed in the age group of 65-69 years, and another peak was observed in the age group of 20-24 years. Downward trends were observed for both period and cohort effects, but the cohort effect trends were uneven. A higher risk was observed for the birth cohorts of 1961-1970 (rate ratio [RR]1961-1965=1.10, 95% CI 0.88-1.38; RR1966-1970=1.11, 95% CI 0.92-1.37) and 2001-2010 (RR2001-2005=0.92, 95% CI 0.63-1.34; RR2006-2010=0.84, 95% CI 0.45-1.58) than for the adjacent cohorts. The Bayesian age-period-cohort model projected that PTB incidence will continually increase from 2021 to 2030 and that PTB incidence in 2030 will be 2.28 times higher than that in 2006. The age-specific change was the leading cause for the growing PTB disease burden.

CONCLUSIONS

Although there are several levels and measures for PTB control, the disease burden is likely to increase in the future. To bridge the gap of TB-free vision, our study suggests that public health policies be put in place soon, including large-scale active case-finding, priority prevention policies for high-risk older adult and young adult populations, and reduction of possible grandparent-grandchildren transmission patterns.

Decline of tuberculosis notification rate in different populations and regions in Portugal, 2010-2017

BACKGROUND

Tuberculosis (TB) incidence declined in Portugal in recent decades, but trends differ between regions and population subgroups. We investigated these differences to inform prevention and control programmes.

METHODS

We extracted TB notifications from the Portuguese National TB Surveillance System (SVIG-TB) in 2010-2017, disaggregated by region, age group, nationality and HIV status. We calculated notification rates using denominators from the Portuguese National Institute of Statistics and the Joint United Nations Programme on HIV/AIDS and performed stratified time series analysis. We estimated interannual decline percentages and 95% confidence intervals (CI) using Poisson and binomial negative regression models.

RESULTS

The overall TB notification rate decreased from 25.7 to 17.5/100,000 population from 2010 to 2017 (5.2%/year) in Portugal. Interannual decline did not differ significantly between regions, but it was smaller amongst non-Portuguese nationals (-1.57% [CI: -4.79%, 1.75%] vs -5.85% [CI: -6.98%, -4.70%] in Portuguese nationals); children under five years of age (+1.77% [CI: -4.61%, 8.58%] vs -5.38% [CI: -6.33%, -4.42%] in other age groups); and HIV-negative people (-6.47% [CI: -9.10%, -3.77%] vs -11.29% [CI; -17.51%, -4.60%] in HIV-positive).

CONCLUSIONS

The decline in TB notification rates in Portugal during the study period has been steady. However, the decline amongst non-Portuguese nationals, children under five years of age and non-infected-HIV patients was lower. No significant differences were observed between regions. Changes in TB epidemiology in specific risk groups and geographical areas should be closely monitored to achieve the objectives of the End TB Strategy. We recommend intensifying screening of TB in the subpopulations identified.

Spatial-temporal patterns and influencing factors for pulmonary tuberculosis transmission in China: an analysis based on 15 years of surveillance data

Profiting from a series of anti-tuberculosis programs in China, the number of tuberculosis (TB) cases has diminished dramatically in the past decades. However, long-term spatial-temporal variations, regional trends of prevalence, and mechanisms of determinant factors remain unclear. Age-period-cohort analysis and Bayesian space-time hierarchy statistics were conducted to identify high-risk populations and areas in mainland China, and the geographical detector model was used to evaluate the important drivers of the disease. The prevalence of pulmonary TB has declined from 73.3/100,000 in 2004 to 55.45/100,000 in 2018. A bimodal distribution was found in age groups, and the birth cohorts before 1978 had relative higher risk. The high-risk areas were mainly distributed in western China and south-central China, and several provinces in eastern China showed a potential increasing trend, including Beijing, Shanghai, Liaoning, and Guangdong province. The index of night light (Q = 0.46), the population density (Q = 0.41), PM10 (Q = 0.38), urbanization rate (Q = 0.32), and PM 2.5 (Q = 0.31) contributed substantially to the spatial distribution of pulmonary tuberculosis. The identifications of epidemic patterns, high-risk areas and influence factors would help design targeted intervention measures to achieve milestones of the end TB strategy.

Epidemiological features and trends in the mortality rates of 10 notifiable respiratory infectious diseases in China from 2004 to 2020: Based on national surveillance

Objectives

The aim of this study is to describe, visualize, and compare the trends and epidemiological features of the mortality rates of 10 notifiable respiratory infectious diseases in China from 2004 to 2020.

Setting

Data were obtained from the database of the National Infectious Disease Surveillance System (NIDSS) and reports released by the National and local Health Commissions from 2004 to 2020. Spearman correlations and Joinpoint regression models were used to quantify the temporal trends of RIDs by calculating annual percentage changes (APCs) in the rates of mortality.

Results

The overall mortality rate of RIDs was stable across China from 2004 to 2020 (R = -0.38, P = 0.13), with an APC per year of -2.2% (95% CI: -4.6 to 0.3; P = 0.1000). However, the overall mortality rate of 10 RIDs in 2020 decreased by 31.80% (P = 0.006) compared to the previous 5 years before the COVID-19 pandemic. The highest mortality occurred in northwestern, western, and northern China. Tuberculosis was the leading cause of RID mortality, and mortality from tuberculosis was relatively stable throughout the 17 years (R = -0.36, P = 0.16), with an APC of -1.9% (95% CI -4.1 to 0.4, P = 0.1000). Seasonal influenza was the only disease for which mortality significantly increased (R = 0.73, P = 0.00089), with an APC of 29.70% (95% CI 16.60-44.40%; P = 0.0000). The highest yearly case fatality ratios (CFR) belong to avian influenza A H5N1 [687.5 per 1,000 (33/48)] and epidemic cerebrospinal meningitis [90.5748 per 1,000 (1,010/11,151)]. The age-specific CFR of 10 RIDs was highest among people over 85 years old [13.6551 per 1,000 (2,353/172,316)] and was lowest among children younger than 10 years, particularly in 5-year-old children [0.0552 per 1,000 (58/1,051,178)].

Conclusions

The mortality rates of 10 RIDs were relatively stable from 2004 to 2020 with significant differences among Chinese provinces and age groups. There was an increased mortality trend for seasonal influenza and concerted efforts are needed to reduce the mortality rate of seasonal influenza in the future.

Trends and disparities in 44 national notifiable infectious diseases in China: An analysis of national surveillance data from 2010 to 2019

Research assessing the changing epidemiology of infectious diseases in China after the implementation of new healthcare reform in 2009 was scarce. We aimed to get the latest trends and disparities of national notifiable infectious diseases by age, sex, province, and season in China from 2010 to 2019. The number of incident cases and deaths, incidence rate, and mortality of 44 national notifiable infectious diseases by sex, age groups, and provincial regions from 2010 to 2019 were extracted from the China Information System for Disease Control and Prevention and official reports and divided into six kinds of infectious diseases by transmission routes and three classes (A-C) in this descriptive study. Estimated annual percentage changes (EAPCs) were calculated to quantify the temporal trends of incidence and mortality rate. We calculated the concentration index to measure economic-related inequality. Segmented interrupted time-series analysis was used to estimate the impact of the COVID-19 pandemic on the epidemic of notifiable infectious diseases. The trend of incidence rate on six kinds of infectious diseases by transmission routes was stable, while only mortality of sexual, blood-borne, and mother-to-child-borne infectious diseases increased from 0.6466 per 100 000 population in 2010 to 1.5499 per 100 000 population in 2019 by 8.76% per year (95% confidence interval [CI]: 6.88-10.68). There was a decreasing trend of incidence rate on Class-A infectious diseases (EAPC = -16.30%; 95% CI: -27.93 to -2.79) and Class-B infectious diseases (EAPC = -1.05%; 95% CI: -1.56 to -0.54), while an increasing trend on Class-C infectious diseases (EAPC = 6.22%; 95% CI: 2.13-10.48). For mortality, there was a decreasing trend on Class-C infectious diseases (EAPC = -14.76%; 95% CI: -23.46 to -5.07), and an increasing trend on Class-B infectious diseases (EAPC = 4.56%; 95% CI: 2.44-6.72). In 2019, the infectious diseases with the highest incidence rate and mortality were respiratory diseases (340.95 per 100 000 population), and sexual, blood-borne, and mother-to-child-borne infectious diseases (1.5459 per 100 000 population), respectively. The greatest increasing trend of incidence rate was observed in seasonal influenza, from 4.83 per 100 000 population in 2010 to 253.36 per 100 000 population in 2019 by 45.16% per year (95% CI: 29.81-62.33), especially among females and children aged 0-4 years old. The top disease with the highest mortality was still AIDs, which had the highest average yearly mortality in 24 provinces from 2010 to 2019, and its incidence rate (EAPC = 14.99%; 95% CI: 8.75-21.59) and mortality (EAPC = 9.65; 95%CI: 7.71-11.63) both increased from 2010 to 2019, especially among people aged 44-59 years old and 60 or older. Male incidence rate and mortality were higher than females each year from 2010 to 2018 on 29 and 10 infectious diseases, respectively. Additionally, sex differences in the incidence and mortality of AIDS were becoming larger. The curve lay above the equality line, with the negative value of the concentration index, which indicated that economic-related health disparities exist in the distribution of incidence rate and mortality of respiratory diseases (incidence rate: the concentration index = -0.063, p < 0.0001; mortality: the concentration index = -0.131, p < 0.001), sexual, blood-borne, and mother-to-child-borne infectious diseases (incidence rate: the concentration index = -0.039, p = 0.0192; mortality: the concentration index = -0.207, p < 0.0001), and the inequality disadvantageous to the poor (pro-rich). Respiratory diseases (Dec-Jan), intestinal diseases (May-Jul), zoonotic infectious diseases (Mar-Jul), and vector-borne infectious diseases (Sep-Oct) had distinct seasonal epidemic patterns. In addition, segmented interrupted time-series analyses showed that, after adjusting for potential seasonality, autocorrelation, GDP per capita, number of primary medical institutions, and other factors, there was no significant impact of COVID-19 epidemic on the monthly incidence rate of six kinds of infectious diseases by transmission routes from 2018 to 2020 (all p > 0.05). The incidence rates of six kinds of infectious diseases were stable in the past decade, and incidence rates of Class-A and Class-B infectious diseases were decreasing because of comprehensive prevention and control measures and a strengthened health system after the implementation of the new healthcare reform in China since 2009. However, age, gender, regional, and economic disparities were still observed. Concerted efforts are needed to reduce the impact of seasonal influenza (especially among children aged 0-4 years old) and the mortality of AIDs (especially among people aged 44-59 years old and 60 or older). More attention should be paid to the disparities in the burden of infectious diseases.

Time trends in tuberculosis mortality across the BRICS: an age-period-cohort analysis for the GBD 2019

BACKGROUND

Tuberculosis is the leading cause of death from a single infectious agent among the HIV-negative population and ranks first among the HIV-positive population. However, few studies have assessed tuberculosis trends in Brazil, Russia, India, China and South Africa (BRICS) or with an emphasis on HIV status. This study assesses the time trends of tuberculosis mortality across the BRICS with an emphasis on HIV status from 1990 to 2019.

METHODS

We obtained tuberculosis data from the Global Burden of Disease 2019 study (GBD 2019). We calculated the relative proportion of tuberculosis to all communicable, maternal, neonatal, and nutritional diseases by HIV status across the BRICS. We used age-period-cohort modelling to estimate cohort and period effects in tuberculosis from 1990 to 2019, and calculated net drift (overall annual percentage change), local drift (annual percentage change in each age group), longitudinal age curves (expected longitudinal age-specific rate), and period (cohort) relative risks.

FINDINGS

There were 549,522 tuberculosis deaths across the BRICS in 2019, accounting for 39.3% of global deaths. Among HIV-negative populations, the age-standardised mortality rate (ASMR) of tuberculosis in BRICS remained far higher than that of high-income Asia Pacific countries, especially in India (36.1 per 100 000 in 2019, 95% UI [30.7, 42.6]) and South Africa (40.1 per 100 000 in 2019, 95% UI [36.8, 43.7]). China had the fastest ASMR reduction across the BRICS, while India maintained the largest tuberculosis death numbers with an annual decrease much slower than China's (-4.1 vs -8.0%). Among HIV-positive populations, the ASMR in BRICS surged from 0.24 per 100 000 in 1990 to 5.63 per 100 000 in 2005, and then dropped quickly to 1.70 per 100 000 in 2019. Brazil was the first country to reverse the upward trend of HIV/AIDS-tuberculosis (HIV-TB) mortality in 1995, and achieved the most significant reduction (-3.32% per year). The HIV-TB mortality in South Africa has realised much progress since 2006, but still has the heaviest HIV-TB burden across the BRICS (ASMR: 70.0 per 100 000 in 2019). We also found unfavourable trends among HIV-negative middle-aged (35-55) adults of India, men over 50 in the HIV-negative population and whole HIV-positive population of South Africa, and women aged 45-55 years of Russia. China had little progress in its HIV-positive population with worsening period risks from 2010 to 2019, and higher risks in the younger cohorts born after 1980.

INTERPRETATION

BRICS' actions on controlling tuberculosis achieved positive results, but the overall improvements were less than those in high-income Asia Pacific countries. BRICS and other high-burden countries should strengthen specified public health approaches and policies targeted at different priority groups in each country.

FUNDING

National Natural Science Foundation of China (82073573; 72074009), Peking University Global Health and Infectious Diseases Group.

Investigation of 3-year inpatient TB cases in Zunyi, China: Increased TB burden but improved bacteriological diagnosis

Background

As one of the top three high tuberculosis (TB) burden countries, China is a country where the overall TB incidence continues to decline. However, due to its large population and area, the increased TB burden exists in regional areas.

Methods

This retrospective study analyzed local inpatient pulmonary TB cases in the Affiliated Hospital of Zunyi Medical University (AHZMU) from January 2016 to December 2018 in a high TB incidence and economically-less-developed area of China. Four methods, acid-fast bacilli stain, culture, Xpert and LAMP, were used to detect Mycobacterium tuberculosis (M.tb), while proportional method and Xpert were used to identify rifampicin-resistant TB (RR-TB). Case number, treatment history, M.tb confirmed TB and rifampicin resistant proportion were analyzed to investigate the local TB epidemic.

Results

Total 3,910 local inpatient cases with pulmonary TB were admitted to AHZMU during this study period. The annual numbers of total TB cases increased 26.4% (from 1,173 to 1,483), while new cases increased 29.6% (from 936 to 1,213) and RR-TB cases increased 2.7 times (from 31 to 84). Meanwhile, the percentage of previously treated cases declined from 20.2 to 18.2% and the M.tb confirmed TB proportion increased from 34.7 to 49.7%.

Conclusion

The elevated M.tb confirmed TB proportion and the declined percentage of previously treated cases indicated the improved TB diagnosis and treatment of AHZMU. However, the increasing number of total TB cases, new and RR-TB cases showed an upward trend and increased TB burden in a relatively underdeveloped area of China.

Age-period-cohort analysis of pulmonary tuberculosis reported incidence, China, 2006-2020

Background

Tuberculosis (TB) poses a severe public health challenge in China and worldwide. This study evaluated the effects of age, period, and birth cohort on reported incidence trends of TB based on population and refined the characteristics of high-risk groups.

Methods

Aggregate data that reported pulmonary tuberculosis (PTB) cases from China Tuberculosis Management Information System (TBIMS) from 2006 to 2020 were used to analyze effect coefficients through the age–period–cohort (APC) model based on intrinsic estimator (IE) method, and converted them into relative risk (RR) to estimate trends.

Results

A total of 14.82 million cases of PTB were reported in China from 2006 to 2020, showing a continuous downward trend. The reporting rate increased with age by age group, with 70–74 years old being 2–3 times higher than that in 20–24 years old. APC analysis model showed that age effects were bimodal in 20–24 years old [RR = 2.29, 95% confidence interval (CI): 1.73–3.03] and 70–74 years old (RR = 1.95, 95% CI: 1.67–2.27), and lower than the overall average in the groups under 15 years old. Stratified results showed that the risk was higher for women under age 40 than men and higher for men over 40. The risk was higher in urban than in rural areas under 30 years old and slightly higher in rural than in urban between 30 and 64 years old. The risk for 15–34 years old was significantly higher in the east than in other regions. The period effects showed a decreasing trend, and the risk was higher in rural in recent years. Except for cohorts born in 1961–1965 and 2001–2005, where the RR increased, the later the cohort was born, the lower the risk. The cohort 1926–1930 in eastern had the highest risk (RR = 3.49, 95% CI: 2.44–4.98).

Conclusions

The reported incidence of PTB continued to decline in China from 2006 to 2020. The young (20–24 years old) and the elderly (70–74 years old) were equally at high risk. There were differences in the age, period and cohort effects on PTB incidence among gender, urban–rural and regions. Our findings better reflected the characteristics of high-risk populations, thus contributing to the development of timely and effective intervention strategies, and providing clues for etiological research.

Graphical abstract

Supplementary Information

The online version contains supplementary material available at 10.1186/s40249-022-01009-4.

Global trends, regional differences and age distribution for the incidence of HIV and tuberculosis co-infection from 1990 to 2019: results from the global burden of disease study 2019

BACKGROUND

People living with human immunodeficiency virus (HIV) are more likely to develop tuberculosis (TB), and their co-infection (HIV-TB) increases the risk of death. We aimed to describe the global trends, regional differences and age distribution of HIV-TB.

METHODS

Annual new cases, age-standardized incidence rates (ASRs) and age-specific incidence rates with 95% uncertainty intervals (UIs) of HIV-infected drug-susceptible tuberculosis (HIV-DS-TB), HIV-infected multidrug-resistant tuberculosis without extensive drug resistance (HIV-MDR-TB) and HIV-infected extensively drug-resistant tuberculosis (HIV-XDR-TB) during 1990-2019 were collected from the Global Burden of Disease Study 2019. To reveal the trends of HIV-TB by region and age, the percentage change of new cases and estimated annual percentage change (EAPC) of ASRs were calculated.

RESULTS

The ASR of HIV-XDR-TB increased significantly by an average of 14.77% (95% CI: 11.05%-18.62%) per year during 1990-2019 worldwide, while the ASRs of HIV-DS-TB and HIV-MDR-TB decreased after 2005. HIV-XDR-TB was a great threat to Eastern Europe for the largest number of new cases (792, 95% UI: 487-1167) and the highest ASR (0.34 per 100,000 population, 95% UI: 0.21-0.50). In addition, Oceania had the largest rise in ASRs of HIV-MDR-TB (EAPC = 22.56, 95% CI: 18.62-26.64) and HIV-XDR-TB (EAPC = 32.95, 95% CI: 27.90-38.20) during 1990-2019. Recently, age-specific incidence rates of HIV-XDR-TB increased in all age groups, especially in the 50-69 age groups among high, low-middle and low Socio-Demographic Index regions. Additionally, the proportion of patients aged <15 years was nearly 10% of new cases in sub-Saharan Africa in 2019, which was higher than in other regions.

CONCLUSIONS

HIV-infected drug-resistant TB is common in Oceania and Eastern Europe. Moreover, HIV-XDR-TB among elderly people became increasingly prevalent. In the future, the collaboration of management for HIV and TB should be intensified in Oceania and Eastern Europe, and more concerns need to be paid in elderly people.

Does tuberculosis affect surgical outcomes following pericardiectomy for chronic constrictive pericarditis? Twelve years’ experience from a tertiary care center in India

Introduction and purpose

Tuberculosis (TB) is the commonest cause of chronic constrictive pericarditis (CCP) in India, unlike in the western countries. Pericardiectomy is the treatment of choice for CCP. Surgery in TB CCP is considerably more difficult than it is for other etiologies. The role of TB as an independent predictor for adverse surgical outcomes had not been properly evaluated in the Indian scenario. Hence, the aim of this study was to retrospectively analyze our results of surgery for CCP and the pre-operative factors that influenced post-operative outcomes.

Methods

The data of all adult patients who underwent pericardiectomy for CCP, between the years 2009 and 2020, maintained in a live database in our institute, were retrieved and analyzed.

Results

There were 124 patients in the study. The average age was 32 years. The male to female ratio was 3:1. TB was the commonest cause of CCP, identified in 64 (51.6%) patients. Complete anterior pericardiectomy (CAP) was possible in 122 (98.3%) patients. All the patients had significant drop in their central venous pressure (CVP) (10.25 ± 3.47 mmHg) after surgery. The operative time (p = 0.008), intra-operative blood loss (p = 0.02), intensive care unit (ICU) stay (p = 0.03), and hospital stay (p = 0.028) were significantly higher in the TB group. Apart from TB, the other pre-operative variables that predicted adverse outcomes were male sex, presence of pleural effusion or ascites, and advanced New York Heart Association (NYHA) class. There were 7 (5.6%) post-operative complications and 3 (2.4%) in-hospital deaths.

Conclusion

The high incidence of TB CCP makes a pericardiectomy in developing countries technically more challenging resulting in increased operative time, more blood loss, and prolonged ICU and hospital stay, but did not affect in-hospital mortality or morbidity.

Designing of a Chimeric Vaccine Using EIS (Rv2416c) Protein Against Mycobacterium tuberculosis H37Rv: an Immunoinformatics Approach

Mycobacterium tuberculosis (Mtb) is a respiratory pathogen that causes tuberculosis (TB). There are a large number of proteins that are involved in the pathogenesis of TB. Stimulating the immune response against TB is very important to clear the pathogens from host. In the present study, an immunoinformatics conduit is used for designing an epitope based chimeric vaccine against TB. Enhanced intracellular survival (EIS) protein from Mtb is used for designing the chimeric vaccine. One B cell epitope, 8 cytotoxic T lymphocyte (CTL), and 6 helper T lymphocyte (HTL) epitopes were predicted based on the MHC allele binding, immunogenicity, antigenicity, allergenicity, toxicity and IFN epitopes. The selected epitopes were used for chimeric vaccine designing. Furthermore, 3D structure elucidation, structural refinement and validation of the designed chimeric vaccine were carried out. The 3D structure was used for protein-protein docking studies with Toll-like receptor 4 (TLR-4), followed by molecular dynamic simulation (MDS) and the interaction between the chimeric vaccine and TLR-4 complex was verified.

Trends in incidence and mortality of tuberculosis in India over past three decades: a joinpoint and age-period-cohort analysis

Background

Tuberculosis, as a communicable disease, is an ongoing global epidemic that accounts for high burden of global mortality and morbidity. Globally, with an estimated 10 million new cases and around 1.4 million deaths, TB has emerged as one of the top 10 causes of morbidity and mortality in 2019. Worst hit 8 countries account for two thirds of the new TB cases in 2019, with India leading the count. Despite India's engagement in various TB control activities since its first recognition through the resolution passed in the All-India Sanitary Conference in 1912 and launch of first National Tuberculosis Control Programme in 1962, it has remained a major public health challenge to overcome. To accelerate progress towards the goal of ending TB by 2025, 5 years ahead of the global SDG target, it is imperative to outline the incidence and mortality trends of tuberculosis in India. This study aims to provide deep insights into the recent trends of TB incidence and mortality in India from 1990 to 2019.

Methods

This is an observational study based on the most recent data from the Global Burden of Disease (GBD) Study 2019. We extracted numbers, age-specific and age-standardized incidence and mortality rates of Tuberculosis for the period 1990–2019 from the Global Health Data Exchange. The average annual percent change (AAPC) along with 95% Confidence Interval (CI) in incidence and mortality were derived by joinpoint regression analysis; the net age, period, and cohort effects on the incidence and mortality rates were estimated by using Age–Period–Cohort model.

Results

During the study period, age-standardized incidence and mortality rates of TB in India declines from 390.22 to 223.01 and from 121.72 to 36.11 per 100,000 population respectively. The Joinpoint regression analysis showed a significant decreasing pattern in incidence rates in India between 1990 and 2019 for both male and female; but larger decline was observed in case of females (AAPC: − 2.21; 95% CI: − 2.29 to − 2.12; p < 0.001) as compared to males (AAPC: − 1.63; 95% CI: − 1.71 to − 1.54; p < 0.001). Similar pattern was observed for mortality where the declining trend was sharper for females (AAPC: − 4.35; 95% CI: − 5.12 to − 3.57; p < 0.001) as compared to males (AAPC: − 3.88; 95% CI: − 4.63 to − 3.11; p < 0.001). For age-specific rates, incidence and mortality rates of TB decreased for both male and female across all ages during this period. The age effect showed that both incidence and mortality significantly increased with advancing age; period effect showed that both incidence and mortality decreased with advancing time period; cohort effect on TB incidence and mortality also decreased from earlier birth cohorts to more recent birth cohorts.

Conclusion

Mortality and Incidence of TB decreased across all age groups for both male and female over the period 1990–2019. The incidence as well as mortality was higher among males as compared to females. The net age effect showed an unfavourable trend while the net period effect and cohort effect presented a favourable trend. Aging was likely to drive a continued increase in the mortality of TB. Though the incidence and mortality of tuberculosis significantly decreased from 1990 to 2019, the annual rate of reduction is not sufficient enough to achieve the aim of India’s National Strategic plan 2017–2025. Approximately six decades since the launch of the National Tuberculosis Control Programme, TB still remains a major public health problem in India. Government needs to strengthen four strategic pillars “Detect–Treat–Prevent–Build” (DTPB) in order to achieve TB free India as envisaged in the National Tuberculosis Elimination Programme (2020).

Supplementary Information

The online version contains supplementary material available at 10.1186/s12890-021-01740-y.

Long-term trends of tuberculosis incidence and mortality in four central African countries

Tuberculosis (TB) incidence and mortality rates are still high in Sub-Saharan Africa, and the knowledge about the current patterns is valuable for policymaking to decrease the TB burden. Based on the Global Burden of Disease (GBD) study 2019, we used a Joinpoint regression analysis to examine the variations in the trends of TB incidence and mortality, and the age-period-cohort statistical model to evaluate their risks associated with age, period, and cohort in males and females from Cameroon (CAM), Central African Republic (CAR), Chad, and the Democratic Republic of the Congo (DRC). In the four countries, TB incidence and mortality rates displayed decreasing trends in men and women; except for the males from DRC that recorded an almost steady pattern in the trend of TB incidence between 1990 and 2019. TB incidence and mortality rates decreased according to the overall annual percentage changes over the adjusted age category in men and women of the four countries, and CAM registered the highest decrease. Although TB incidence and mortality rates increased with age between 1990 and 2019, the male gender was mainly associated with the upward behaviors of TB incidence rates, and the female gender association was with the upward behaviors of TB mortality rates. Males and females aged between 15–54 and 15–49 years old were evaluated as the population at high risks of TB incidence and mortality respectively in CAM, CAR, Chad, and DRC. The period and cohort relative risks (RRs) both declined in men and women of the four countries although there were some upward behaviors in their trends. Relatively to the period and cohort RRs, females and males from CAM recorded the most significant decrease compared to the rest of the countries. New public health approaches and policies towards young adults and adults, and a particular focus on elderlies’ health and life conditions should be adopted in CAM, CAR, DRC, and Chad to rapidly decrease TB incidence and mortality in both genders of the four countries.

Temporal Trends in Notification and Mortality of Tuberculosis in China, 2004-2019: A Joinpoint and Age-Period-Cohort Analysis

Tuberculosis (TB) remains a major public health problem in China and worldwide. In this article, we used a joinpoint regression model to calculate the average annual percent change (AAPC) of TB notification and mortality in China from 2004 to 2019. We also used an age–period–cohort (APC) model based on the intrinsic estimator (IE) method to simultaneously distinguish the age, period and cohort effects on TB notification and mortality in China. A statistically downward trend was observed in TB notification and mortality over the period, with AAPCs of −4.2% * (−4.9%, −3.4%) and −5.8% (−7.5%, −4.0%), respectively. A bimodal pattern of the age effect was observed, peaking in the young adult (aged 15–34) and elderly (aged 50–84) groups. More specifically, the TB notification risk populations were people aged 20–24 years and 70–74 years; the TB mortality risk population was adults over the age of 60. The period effect suggested that TB notification and mortality risks were nearly stable over the past 15 years. The cohort effect on both TB notification and mortality presented a continuously decreasing trend, and it was no longer a risk factor after 1978. All in all, the age effect should be paid more attention.

Associations of genetic variants at TAP1 and TAP2 with pulmonary tuberculosis risk among the Chinese population

Tuberculosis (TB) is a common infectious disease, and the present study aims to explore the associations of single nucleotide polymorphisms (SNPs) at rs1135216 and rs1057141 of transporter-associated antigen processing (TAP1) and rs2228396 of TAP2 with pulmonary tuberculosis (PTB) risk. A case-control study including 168 smear-positive PTB cases and 251 controls was conducted. Genotyping of the SNPs at rs1135216, rs1057141 and rs2228396 was performed, and their associations with PTB risk were analysed with SPSS software version 19.0. After conducting stratification for age, a significant association was detected for rs1057141 with increased PTB risk (OR = 0.17, 95% CI 0.04-0.79) among those aged ≥60 years. For those aged <60 years, a marginally significant association was detected between rs1135216 TC/CC and PTB risk (OR = 1.97, 95% CI 0.93-4.19). Haplotype analysis revealed that the haplotype AT at rs1135216 and rs2228396, as well as AAT at rs1057141, rs1135216 and rs2228396, was associated with increased PTB risk, and the ORs were 2.83 (95% CI 1.30-6.14) and 2.89 (95% CI 1.34-6.27), respectively. Rs1057141 is a genetic predictor of reduced PTB risk for those aged ≥60 years, while rs1135216 might be a potential genetic predictor for those aged <60 years. Haplotype AT at rs1135216 and rs2228396, as well as AAT at rs1057141, rs1135216 and rs2228396, is a genetic marker that may predict PTB risk.

Changes in newly notified cases and control of tuberculosis in China: time-series analysis of surveillance data

BACKGROUND

China has made progress in tuberculosis control, but this disease remains a burden in many regions of China. We performed time-series analysis to examine changes in the rates of newly notified and newly smear-positive cases of tuberculosis in different regions of China from 1997 to 2018 and assessed the effect of the current control program.

METHODS

National and provincial notification data on tuberculosis from 1997 to 2018, which covers 31 provinces in the mainland of China, were extracted from the Chinese public health science data center. The annual percentage changes in newly notified and smear-positive cases were analyzed using a joinpoint regression method.

RESULTS

There were 18 646 672 newly notified tuberculosis cases from 1997 to 2018, with the greatest number in 2005. A total of 6 605 414 of these cases (35.42%) were smear-positive cases. The number of newly notified cases in China overall decreased (96.88-59.27 cases per 100 000) significantly during the most recent years. The decline during this period ranged from -3.9% (95% CI -5.7 to -2.9) in the western region to -4.3% (95% CI -4.8 to -3.7) in the eastern region. Most provinces had significant declines in newly notified and smear-positive cases, whereas the decline of newly smear-positive cases in Xinjiang was about half of that observed during the same period in China overall (-4.1% vs -9.9%). In addition to disparities in annual percentage changes, the rate of newly notified cases was higher in the western region than in the eastern and central regions.

CONCLUSIONS

The burden of tuberculosis has been on declining throughout China during recent years, but tuberculosis in western China continues to be a public health emergency that needs to be urgently addressed. Effective prevention and control strategies are needed for regions with high disease burdens and those with increasing or unchanging numbers of newly notified and smear-positive cases of tuberculosis.