What Drives Abdominal Obesity in Peru? A Multilevel Analysis Approach Using a Nationally Representative Survey

Construction and validation of a predictive model for the risk of malnutrition in hospitalized patients over 65 years of age with malignant tumours: a single-centre retrospective cross-sectional study

Background

Nutritional status is a critical indicator of overall health in individuals suffering from malignant tumours, reflecting the complex interplay of various contributing factors. This research focused on identifying and analysing the factors influencing malnutrition among older patients aged ≥65 with malignant tumours and aimed to develop a comprehensive risk model for predicting malnutrition.

Methods

This study conducted a retrospective analysis of clinical data from 3,387 older inpatients aged ≥65 years with malignant tumours collected at our hospital from July 1, 2021, to December 31, 2023. The dataset was subsequently divided into training and validation sets at an 8:2 ratio. The nutritional status of these patients was evaluated using the Nutritional Risk Screening Tool 2002 (NRS-2002) and the 2018 Global Leadership Initiative on Malnutrition (GLIM) Standards for Clinical Nutrition and Metabolism. Based on these assessments, patients were categorized into either malnutrition or non-malnutrition groups. Subsequently, a risk prediction model was developed and presented through a nomogram for practical application.

Results

The analysis encompassed 2,715 individuals in the development cohort and 672 in the validation cohort, with a malnutrition prevalence of 40.42%. A significant positive correlation between the incidence of malnutrition and age was observed. Independent risk factors identified included systemic factors, tumour staging (TNM stage), age, Karnofsky Performance Status (KPS) score, history of alcohol consumption, co-infections, presence of ascites or pleural effusion, haemoglobin (HGB) levels, creatinine (Cr), and the neutrophil-to-lymphocyte ratio (NLR). The predictive model exhibited areas under the curve (AUC) of 0.793 (95% confidence interval (CI) [0.776-0.810]) for the development cohort and 0.832 (95% CI [0.801-0.863]) for the validation cohort. Calibration curves indicated Brier scores of 0.186 and 0.190, while the Hosmer-Lemeshow test yielded chi-square values of 5.633 and 2.875, respectively (P > 0.05). Decision curve analysis (DCA) demonstrated the model's clinical applicability and superiority over the NRS-2002, highlighting its potential for valuable clinical application.

Conclusion

This study successfully devised a straightforward and efficient prediction model for malnutrition among older patients aged 65 and above with malignant tumours. The model represents a significant advancement as a clinical tool for identifying individuals at high risk of malnutrition, enabling early intervention with targeted nutritional support and improving patient outcomes.

Diagnostic Performance of the Measurement of Skinfold Thickness for Abdominal and Overall Obesity in the Peruvian Population: A 5-Year Cohort Analysis

The escalating prevalence of overall and abdominal obesity, particularly affecting Latin America, underscores the urgent need for accessible and cost-effective predictive methods to address the growing disease burden. This study assessed skinfold thicknesses' predictive capacity for overall and abdominal obesity in Peruvian adults aged 30 or older over 5 years. Data from the PERU MIGRANT 5-year cohort study were analyzed, defining obesity using BMI and waist circumference. Receiver operating characteristic curves and area under the curve (AUC) with 95% confidence intervals (CI) were calculated. Adults aged ≥ 30 (n = 988) completed the study at baseline, with 47% male. A total of 682 participants were included for overall and abdominal obesity analysis. The 5-year prevalence values for overall and abdominal obesity were 26.7% and 26.6%, respectively. Subscapular skinfold (SS) best predicted overall obesity in men (AUC = 0.81, 95% CI: 0.75-0.88) and women (AUC = 0.77, 95% CI: 0.67-0.88). Regarding abdominal obesity, SS exhibited the highest AUC in men (AUC = 0.83, 95% CI: 0.77-0.89), while SS and the sum of trunk skinfolds showed the highest AUC in women. In secondary analysis excluding participants with type-2 diabetes mellitus (DM2) at baseline, SS significantly predicted DM2 development in men (AUC = 0.70, 95% CI: 0.58-0.83) and bicipital skinfold (BS) did in women (AUC = 0.73, 95% CI: 0.62-0.84). The findings highlight SS significance as an indicator of overall and abdominal obesity in both sexes among Peruvian adults. Additionally, SS, and BS offer robust predictive indicators for DM2.

Factors Associated with Normal-Weight Abdominal Obesity Phenotype in a Representative Sample of the Peruvian Population: A 4-Year Pooled Cross-Sectional Study

To examine factors associated with abdominal obesity among normal-weight individuals from the Demographic and Health Survey of Peru (2018-2021). Cross-sectional analytical study. The outcome variable was abdominal obesity defined according to JIS criteria. Crude (cPR) and adjusted prevalence ratios (aPR) were estimated for the association between sociodemographic and health-related variables and abdominal obesity using the GLM Poisson distribution with robust variance estimates. A total of 32,109 subjects were included. The prevalence of abdominal obesity was 26.7%. The multivariate analysis showed a statistically significant association between abdominal obesity and female sex (aPR: 11.16; 95% CI 10.43-11.94); categorized age 35 to 59 (aPR: 1.71; 95% CI 1.65-1.78); 60 to 69 (aPR: 1.91; 95% CI 1.81-2.02); and 70 or older(aPR: 1.99; 95% CI 1.87-2.10); survey year 2019 (aPR: 1.22; 95% CI 1.15-1.28); 2020 (aPR: 1.17; 95% CI 1.11-1.24); and 2021 (aPR: 1.12; 95% CI 1.06-1.18); living in Andean region (aPR: 0.91; 95% CI 0.86-0.95); wealth index poor (aPR: 1.26; 95% CI 1.18-1.35); middle (aPR: 1.17; 95% CI 1.08-1.26); rich (aPR: 1.26; 95% CI 1.17-1.36); and richest (aPR: 1.25; 95% CI 1.16-1.36); depressive symptoms (aPR: 0.95; 95% CI 0.92-0.98); history of hypertension (aPR: 1.08; 95% CI 1.03-1.13), type 2 diabetes (aPR: 1.13; 95% CI 1.07-1.20); and fruit intake 3 or more servings/day (aPR: 0.92; 95% CI 0.89-0.96). Female sex, older ages, and low and high income levels increased the prevalence ratio for abdominal obesity, while depressive symptoms, living in the Andean region, and fruit intake of 3 or more servings/day decreased it.