Drifting Phenologies Cause Reduced Seasonality of Butterflies in Response to Increasing Temperatures

Winter Rains Support Butterfly Diversity, but Summer Monsoon Rainfall Drives Post-Monsoon Butterfly Abundance in the Arid Southwest of the US

Butterfly populations are declining worldwide, reflecting our current global biodiversity crisis. Because butterflies are a popular and accurate indicator of insect populations, these declines reflect an even more widespread threat to insects and the food webs upon which they rely. As small ectotherms, insects have a narrow range of habitable conditions; hence, extreme fluctuations and shifts caused by climate change may increase insects' risk of extinction. We evaluated trends of butterfly richness and abundance and their relationship with relevant climate variables in Arizona, U.S.A., using the past 40 years of community science data. We focused on precipitation and temperature as they are known to be influential for insect survival, particularly in arid areas like southwestern U.S.A. We found that preceding winter precipitation is a driver of both spring and summer/fall butterfly richness and spring butterfly abundance. In contrast, summer/fall butterfly abundance was driven by summer monsoon precipitations. The statistically significant declines over the 40-year period were summer/fall butterfly abundance and spring butterfly richness. When controlling for the other variables in the model, there was an average annual 1.81% decline in summer/fall season butterfly abundance and an average annual decline of 2.13 species in the spring season. As climate change continues to negatively impact winter precipitation patterns in this arid region, we anticipate the loss of butterfly species in this region and must consider individual butterfly species trends and additional management and conservation needs.

Seasonal timing on a cyclical Earth: Towards a theoretical framework for the evolution of phenology

Phenology refers to the seasonal timing patterns commonly exhibited by life on Earth, from blooming flowers to breeding birds to human agriculture. Climate change is altering abiotic seasonality (e.g., longer summers) and in turn, phenological patterns contained within. However, how phenology should evolve is still an unsolved problem. This problem lies at the crux of predicting future phenological changes that will likely have substantial ecosystem consequences, and more fundamentally, of understanding an undeniably global phenomenon. Most studies have associated proximate environmental variables with phenological responses in case-specific ways, making it difficult to contextualize observations within a general evolutionary framework. We outline the complex but universal ways in which seasonal timing maps onto evolutionary fitness. We borrow lessons from life history theory and evolutionary demography that have benefited from a first principles-based theoretical scaffold. Lastly, we identify key questions for theorists and empiricists to help advance our general understanding of phenology.

Bloom evenness modulates the influence of bloom abundance on insect community structure in suburban gardens

As land use change drives global insect declines, the value of enhancing habitat in urban and suburban landscapes has become increasingly important for flower-visiting insects. In order to help identify best landscaping practices, we conducted plant surveys and insect bowl-trap surveys in 34 suburban yards for 21 months in Gainesville, FL, USA, which resulted in 274 paired days of plant and insect survey data. We assessed the impact of nearest greenspace size, distance to greenspace, yard area, plant richness, plant type, bloom abundance, bloom richness and bloom evenness on insect abundance and richness. Our samples include 34,972 insects captured, 485,827 blooms counted and 774 species of plants recorded. We found that bloom evenness had a modulating effect on bloom abundance—a more even sample of the same number of blooms would have a disproportionately greater positive impact on flower visitor richness, insect richness and insect abundance. Bloom abundance was also highly significant and positively associated with flower visitor abundance, but nearest greenspace size, distance to greenspace, plant type (native vs. non-native vs. Florida Friendly), and yard area were not found to be important factors. Plant richness was a highly significant factor, but its effect size was very small.