Age and Sex Modulate SARS-CoV-2 Viral Load Kinetics: A Longitudinal Analysis of 1735 Subjects

Kinetics of SARS-CoV-2 Shedding in Nursing Home Residents and Staff

BACKGROUND

Nursing homes (NHs) were disproportionately affected by the COVID-19 pandemic. However, little is known regarding the kinetics of SARS-CoV-2 shedding in NH residents and staff, which could inform treatment and infection prevention.

METHODS

We enrolled NH residents and staff in eight US states from April to November 2023 and analyzed the kinetics of SARS-CoV-2 using serial antigen and molecular (RT-PCR) tests, whole genome sequencing, and viral culture (VC). Symptoms, vaccination, and treatment were collected via interviews and chart review. Viral load trajectories were modeled with gamma distribution functional forms. Antigen and VC test positivity over time were assessed using a Chi-squared test.

RESULTS

Of the 587 enrolled participants, 86 tested positive and 73 underwent testing for ≥ 10 days; most residents (78%) and staff (87%) had ≥ 3 COVID-19 vaccine doses. The modeled SARS-CoV-2 proliferation period (period prior to reaching peak viral load) had ended for 48% (14/29) of residents and 56% (9/16) of staff when they took the initial RT-PCR test. Both antigen and VC showed higher positivity rates early in the course of disease (Days 0-5 vs. Days ≥ 6) (antigen: p < 0·001, VC: p < 0·001). VC positivity was 15% after Day 5 (14/96); two participants were VC positive after Day 10.

CONCLUSIONS

Peak viral load occurs early in the disease, suggesting asymptomatic and presymptomatic transmission may be a significant driver of transmission. Only two participants had a positive VC after Day 10, supporting current isolation and return to work recommendations.

COVID-19 symptom severity and duration among outpatients, July 2021-May 2023: The PROTECT observational study

INTRODUCTION

With the emergence of new SARS-CoV-2 variants has come significant variations in disease manifestation, severity, and duration in non-hospitalized infected patients. To characterize symptom patterns and risk factors associated with symptom severity and duration, COVID-19 and influenza-like illness (ILI) outpatients and their contacts were enrolled at two sites in the United States of America and one site in Thailand.

METHODS

COVID-19 infection was confirmed at enrollment with a positive antigen or PCR test. Baseline demographics and medical histories were collected from participants at enrollment and daily self-reported symptom questionnaires were obtained to assess symptom severity and duration. Risk factors associated with symptom severity and duration were determined by multivariate logistic regression and Cox proportional hazards model.

RESULTS

Two hundred and forty one participants meeting the eligibility criteria were enrolled, including 174 confirmed COVID-19 cases (9% Delta and 90% Omicron), 33 ILI cases, and 34 healthy contacts. COVID-19 participants had a shorter median symptom duration of 9.0 (95% CI, 8.0-11.0) days than ILI participants. Infection with the Delta variant resulted in a longer symptom alleviation period compared to infection with the Omicron variant. The most commonly reported symptoms among COVID-19 participants were reported in the nasal and chest/respiratory domains of the FLU-PRO Plus. Participants infected with the Delta variant reported more symptoms overall, with significantly more symptoms affecting eyes and senses reported. 55% of SARS-CoV-2-positive participants reached a negative N1 Ct value by the day 14 study time point. No risk factors for moderate to severe symptoms were identified in this outpatient cohort. Male sex was associated with a shorter symptom duration.

CONCLUSION

Symptom manifestation varied among Delta and Omicron variants. Few risk factors were identified for increased symptom severity or duration.

Heterogeneous SARS-CoV-2 kinetics due to variable timing and intensity of immune responses

The viral kinetics of documented SARS-CoV-2 infections exhibit a high degree of interindividual variability. We identified 6 distinct viral shedding patterns, which differed according to peak viral load, duration, expansion rate, and clearance rate, by clustering data from 768 infections in the National Basketball Association cohort. Omicron variant infections in previously vaccinated individuals generally led to lower cumulative shedding levels of SARS-CoV-2 than other scenarios. We then developed a mechanistic mathematical model that recapitulated 1,510 observed viral trajectories, including viral rebound and cases of reinfection. Lower peak viral loads were explained by a more rapid and sustained transition of susceptible cells to a refractory state during infection as well as by an earlier and more potent late, cytolytic immune response. Our results suggest that viral elimination occurs more rapidly during Omicron infection, following vaccination, and following reinfection due to enhanced innate and acquired immune responses. Because viral load has been linked with COVID-19 severity and transmission risk, our model provides a framework for understanding the wide range of observed SARS-CoV-2 infection outcomes.

SARS-CoV-2 variant with the spike protein mutation F306L in the southern border provinces of Thailand

The southernmost part of Thailand is a unique and culturally diverse region that has been greatly affected by the severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus-2 (SARS-CoV-2) outbreak during the coronavirus disease-2019 pandemic. To gain insights into this situation, we analyzed 1942 whole-genome sequences of SARS-CoV-2 obtained from the five southernmost provinces of Thailand between April 2021 and March 2022, together with those publicly available in the Global Initiative on Sharing All Influenza Data database. Our analysis revealed evidence for transboundary transmissions of the virus in and out of the five southernmost provinces during the study period, from both domestic and international sources. The most prevalent viral variant in our sequence dataset was the Delta B.1.617.2.85 variant, also known as the Delta AY.85 variant, with many samples carrying a non-synonymous mutation F306L in their spike protein. Protein-protein docking and binding interface analyses suggested that the mutation may enhance the binding between the spike protein and host cell receptor protein angiotensin-converting enzyme 2, and we found that the mutation was significantly associated with an increased fatality rate. This mutation has also been observed in other SARS-CoV-2 variants, suggesting that it is of particular interest and should be monitored.

Characterizing SARS-CoV-2 Transcription of Subgenomic and Genomic RNAs During Early Human Infection Using Multiplexed Droplet Digital Polymerase Chain Reaction

BACKGROUND

Control of severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) transmission requires understanding SARS-CoV-2 replication dynamics.

METHODS

We developed a multiplexed droplet digital polymerase chain reaction (ddPCR) assay to quantify SARS-CoV-2 subgenomic RNAs (sgRNAs), which are only produced during active viral replication, and discriminate them from genomic RNAs (gRNAs). We applied the assay to specimens from 144 people with single nasopharyngeal samples and 27 people with >1 sample. Results were compared to quantitative PCR (qPCR) and viral culture.

RESULTS

sgRNAs were quantifiable across a range of qPCR cycle threshold (Ct) values and correlated with Ct values. The ratio sgRNA:gRNA was stable across a wide range of Ct values, whereas adjusted amounts of N sgRNA to a human housekeeping gene declined with higher Ct values. Adjusted sgRNA and gRNA amounts were quantifiable in culture-negative samples, although levels were significantly lower than in culture-positive samples. Daily testing of 6 persons revealed that sgRNA is concordant with culture results during the first week of infection but may be discordant with culture later in infection. sgRNA:gRNA is constant during infection despite changes in viral culture.

CONCLUSIONS

Ct values from qPCR correlate with active viral replication. More work is needed to understand why some cultures are negative despite presence of sgRNA.

Quantifying the impact of immune history and variant on SARS-CoV-2 viral kinetics and infection rebound: A retrospective cohort study

Background

The combined impact of immunity and SARS-CoV-2 variants on viral kinetics during infections has been unclear.

Methods

We characterized 1,280 infections from the National Basketball Association occupational health cohort identified between June 2020 and January 2022 using serial RT-qPCR testing. Logistic regression and semi-mechanistic viral RNA kinetics models were used to quantify the effect of age, variant, symptom status, infection history, vaccination status and antibody titer to the founder SARS-CoV-2 strain on the duration of potential infectiousness and overall viral kinetics. The frequency of viral rebounds was quantified under multiple cycle threshold (Ct) value-based definitions.

Results

Among individuals detected partway through their infection, 51.0% (95% credible interval [CrI]: 48.3-53.6%) remained potentially infectious (Ct <30) 5 days post detection, with small differences across variants and vaccination status. Only seven viral rebounds (0.7%; N=999) were observed, with rebound defined as 3+days with Ct <30 following an initial clearance of 3+days with Ct ≥30. High antibody titers against the founder SARS-CoV-2 strain predicted lower peak viral loads and shorter durations of infection. Among Omicron BA.1 infections, boosted individuals had lower pre-booster antibody titers and longer clearance times than non-boosted individuals.

Conclusions

SARS-CoV-2 viral kinetics are partly determined by immunity and variant but dominated by individual-level variation. Since booster vaccination protects against infection, longer clearance times for BA.1-infected, boosted individuals may reflect a less effective immune response, more common in older individuals, that increases infection risk and reduces viral RNA clearance rate. The shifting landscape of viral kinetics underscores the need for continued monitoring to optimize isolation policies and to contextualize the health impacts of therapeutics and vaccines.

Funding

Supported in part by CDC contract #200-2016-91779, a sponsored research agreement to Yale University from the National Basketball Association contract #21-003529, and the National Basketball Players Association.

Analysis of Genetic Variants Associated with COVID-19 Outcome Highlights Different Distributions among Populations

The clinical spectrum of SARS-CoV-2 infection ranges from asymptomatic status to mild infections, to severe disease and death. In this context, the identification of specific susceptibility factors is crucial to detect people at the higher risk of severe disease and improve the outcome of COVID-19 treatment. Several studies identified genetic variants conferring higher risk of SARS-CoV-2 infection and COVID-19 severity. The present study explored their genetic distribution among different populations (AFR, EAS, EUR and SAS). As a result, the obtained data support the existence of a genetic basis for the observed variability among populations, in terms of SARS-CoV-2 infection and disease outcomes. The comparison of ORs distribution for genetic risk of infection as well as for disease outcome shows that each population presents its own characteristics. These data suggest that each country could benefit from a population-wide risk assessment, aimed to personalize the national vaccine programs and the preventative measures as well as the allocation of resources and the access to proper therapeutic interventions. Moreover, the host genetics should be further investigated in order to realize personalized medicine protocols tailored to improve the management of patients suffering from COVID-19.

Tracking the Initial Diffusion of SARS-CoV-2 Omicron Variant in Italy by RT-PCR and Comparison with Alpha and Delta Variants Spreading

The emergence of the Omicron SARS-CoV-2 variant caused public health concerns worldwide, raising the need for the improvement of rapid monitoring strategies. The present manuscript aimed at providing evidence of the utility of a diagnostic kit for the routine testing of SARS-CoV-2 infection as a cost-effective method for tracking the Omicron variant in Italy. The study was conducted on patients’ naso-oropharyngeal-swab-derived RNA samples. These samples were subjected to RT-PCR using the TaqPath COVID-19 RT PCR CE IVD kit. Nonparametric testing and polynomial models fitting were used to compare the spreading of Alpha, Delta and Omicron variants. The samples of interest were correctly amplified and displayed the presence of S gene-target failure, suggesting that these patients carry the Omicron variant. The trend of diffusion was found to be significantly different and more rapid compared with that of the Alpha and Delta variants in our cohorts. Overall, these results highlight that the S gene target failure was a very useful tool for the immediate and inexpensive tracking of Omicron variant in the three weeks from the first detection. Thus, our approach could be used as a first-line screening to reduce the time and costs of monitoring strategies, facilitating the management of preventive and counteracting measures against COVID-19.

COVID-19 Pandemic: Public Health Risk Assessment and Risk Mitigation Strategies

A newly emerged respiratory viral disease called severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus-2 (SARS-CoV-2) is also known as pandemic coronavirus disease (COVID-19). This pandemic has resulted an unprecedented global health crisis and devastating impact on several sectors of human lives and economies. Fortunately, the average case fatality ratio for SARS-CoV-2 is below 2%, much lower than that estimated for MERS (34%) and SARS (11%). However, COVID-19 has a much higher transmissibility rate, as evident from the constant increase in the count of infections worldwide. This article explores the reasons behind how COVID-19 was able to cause a global pandemic crisis. The current outbreak scenario and causes of rapid global spread are examined using recent developments in the literature, epidemiological features relevant to public health awareness, and critical perspective of risk assessment and mitigation strategies. Effective pandemic risk mitigation measures have been established and amended against COVID-19 diseases, but there is still much scope for upgrading execution and coordination among authorities in terms of organizational leadership's commitment and diverse range of safety measures, including administrative control measures, engineering control measures, and personal protective equipment (PPE). The significance of containment interventions against the COVID-19 pandemic is now well established; however, there is a need for its effective execution across the globe, and for the improvement of the performance of risk mitigation practices and suppression of future pandemic crises.