Accuracy Assessment of Multi-Source Gridded Population Distribution Datasets in China

A population spatialization method based on the integration of feature selection and an improved random forest model

Ascertaining the precise and accurate spatial distribution of population is essential in conducting effective urban planning, resource allocation, and emergency rescue planning. The random forest (RF) model is widely used in population spatialization studies. However, the complexity of population distribution characteristics and the limitations of the RF model in processing unbalanced datasets affect population prediction accuracy. To address these issues, a population spatialization model that integrates feature selection with an improved random forest is proposed herein. Firstly, recursive feature elimination using cross validation (RFECV), maximum information coefficient (MIC), and mean decrease accuracy (MDA) methods were utilized to select population distribution feature factors. The random forest was constructed using feature subsets that were selected via different feature selection methods, namely MIC-RF, RFECV-RF and MDA-RF. Subsequently, the feature factors corresponding to the model with the highest accuracy were selected as the optimal feature subsets and used in the model construction as input data. Additionally, considering the imbalanced in population spatial distribution, we used the K-means ++ clustering algorithm to cluster the optimal feature subset, and we used the bootstrap sampling method to extract the same amount of data from each cluster and fuse it with the training subset to build an improved random forest model. Based on this model, a spatial population distribution dataset of the Southern Sichuan Economic Zone at a 500m resolution was generated. Finally, the population dataset generated in this study was compared and validated with the WorldPop dataset. The results showed that utilizing feature selection methods improves model accuracy to varying degrees compared with RF based on all factors, and the MDA-RF had the lowest MAPE of 0.174 and the highest R2 of 0.913 among them. Therefore, feature factors selection using the MDA method was considered the optimal feature subset. Compared with MDA-RF, the prediction accuracy of the improved RF built on the same subset increased by 1.7%, indicating that improving the bootstrap sampling of random forest by using the K-means++ clustering algorithm can enhance model accuracy to some extent. Compared with the WorldPop dataset, the accuracy of the results predicted using the proposed method was enhanced. The MRE and RMSE of the WorldPop dataset were 57.24 and 23174.98, respectively, while the MRE and RMSE of the proposed method were 25.00 and 15776.50, respectively. This implies that the method proposed in this paper could simulate population spatial distribution more accurately.

Global gridded population datasets systematically underrepresent rural population

Numerous initiatives towards sustainable development rely on global gridded population data. Such data have been calibrated primarily for urban environments, but their accuracy in the rural domain remains largely unexplored. This study systematically validates global gridded population datasets in rural areas, based on reported human resettlement from 307 large dam construction projects in 35 countries. We find large discrepancies between the examined datasets, and, without exception, significant negative biases of -53%, -65%, -67%, -68%, and -84% for WorldPop, GWP, GRUMP, LandScan, and GHS-POP, respectively. This implies that rural population is, even in the most accurate dataset, underestimated by half compared to reported figures. To ensure equitable access to services and resources for rural communities, past and future applications of the datasets must undergo a critical discussion in light of the identified biases. Improvements in the datasets' accuracies in rural areas can be attained through strengthened population censuses, alternative population counts, and a more balanced calibration of population models.

Global population datasets overestimate flood exposure in Sweden

Accurate population data is crucial for assessing exposure in disaster risk assessments. In recent years, there has been a significant increase in the development of spatially gridded population datasets. Despite these datasets often using similar input data to derive population figures, notable differences arise when comparing them with direct ground-level observations. This study evaluates the precision and accuracy of flood exposure assessments using both known and generated gridded population datasets in Sweden. Specifically focusing on WorldPop and GHSPop, we compare these datasets against official national statistics at a 100 m grid cell resolution to assess their reliability in flood exposure analyses. Our objectives include quantifying the reliability of these datasets and examining the impact of data aggregation on estimated flood exposure across different administrative levels. The analysis reveals significant discrepancies in flood exposure estimates, underscoring the challenges associated with relying on generated gridded population data for precise flood risk assessments. Our findings emphasize the importance of careful dataset selection and highlight the potential for overestimation in flood risk analysis. This emphasises the critical need for validations against ground population data to ensure accurate flood risk management strategies.

Using POI and multisource satellite datasets for mainland China's population spatialization and spatiotemporal changes based on regional heterogeneity

Geospatial big data and remote sensing data are widely used in population spatialization studies. However, the relationship between them and population distribution has regional heterogeneity in different geographic contexts. It is necessary to improve data processing methods and spatialization models in areas with large geographical differences. We used land cover data to extract human activity, nighttime light and point-of-interest (POI) data to represent human activity intensity, and considered differences in geographical context to divide mainland China into northern, southern and western regions. We constructed random forest models to generate gridded population distribution datasets with a resolution of 500 m, and quantitatively evaluated the importance of auxiliary data in different geographical contexts. The street-level accuracy assessment showed that our population dataset is more accurate than WorldPop, with a higher R2 and smaller deviation. The improved datasets provided broad potential for exploring the spatial-temporal changes in grid-level population distribution in China from 2010 to 2020. The results indicated that the population density and settlement area have increased, and the overall pattern of population distribution has remained highly stable, but there are significant differences in population change patterns among cities with different urbanization processes. The importance of the ancillary data to the models varied significantly, with POI contributing the most to the southern region and the least to the western region. Moreover, POI had relatively less influence on model improvement in undeveloped areas. Our study could provide a reference for predicting social and economic spatialized data in different geographical context areas using POI and multisource satellite data.

Research on Spatial Delineation Method of Urban-Rural Fringe Combining POI and Nighttime Light Data-Taking Wuhan City as an Example

The boundary delineation of the urban-rural fringe (URF) is the basic work of fine planning and governance of cities, which plays a positive role in promoting the process of global sustainable development and urban and rural integration. In the past, the delineation of URF had shortcomings such as a single selected data source, difficulty in obtaining data, and low spatial and temporal resolution. This study combines Point of Interest (POI) and Nighttime Light (NTL) data, proposes a new spatial recognition method of URF according to the characteristics of urban and rural spatial structure, and conducts empirical analysis with Wuhan as the research object, combining the information entropy of land use structure, NDVI, and population density data to verify and compare the delineation results and field verification was conducted for typical areas. The results show that (1) the fusion of POI and NTL can maximize the use of the characteristics of the differences in facility types, light intensity, and resolution between POI and NTL, compared with the urban-rural fringe boundary identified by POI, NTL or population density data alone, and it is more accurate and time-sensitive; (2) NPP and POI (fusion data of Suomi NPP-VIIRS and POI) can quantitatively identify potential central area and multi-layer structure of the city. It fluctuates between 0.2 and 0.6 in the urban core area of Wuhan and between 0.1 and 0.3 in the new town clusters, while in the URF and rural areas drops sharply to below 0.1; (3) the urban-rural fringe area of Wuhan covers a total area of 1482.35 km², accounting for 17.30% of the total area of the city. Its land use types are mainly construction land, water area, and cultivated land, accounting for 40.75%, 30.03%, and 14.60% of the URF, respectively. Its NDVI and population density are at a medium level, with values of 1.630 and 2556.28 persons/km^2, respectively; (4) the double mutation law of NPP and POI in urban and rural space confirms that the URF exists objectively as a regional entity generated in the process of urban expansion, provides empirical support for the theory of urban and rural ternary structure, and has a positive reference value for the allocation of global infrastructure, industrial division, ecological function division, and other researches.

Mortality Attributable to Ambient Air Pollution: A Review of Global Estimates

Since the publication of the first epidemiological study to establish the connection between long-term exposure to atmospheric pollution and effects on human health, major efforts have been dedicated to estimate the attributable mortality burden, especially in the context of the Global Burden of Disease (GBD). In this work, we review the estimates of excess mortality attributable to outdoor air pollution at the global scale, by comparing studies available in the literature. We find large differences between the estimates, which are related to the exposure response functions as well as the number of health outcomes included in the calculations, aspects where further improvements are necessary. Furthermore, we show that despite the considerable advancements in our understanding of health impacts of air pollution and the consequent improvement in the accuracy of the global estimates, their precision has not increased in the last decades. We offer recommendations for future measurements and research directions, which will help to improve our understanding and quantification of air pollution-health relationships.

Urbanization Impact on Regional Sustainable Development: Through the Lens of Urban-Rural Resilience

The urban-rural system is an economically, socially, and environmentally interlinked space, which requires the integration of industry, space, and population. To achieve sustainable and coordinated development between urban and rural systems, dynamic land use change within the urban-rural system and the ecological and social consequences need to be clarified. This study uses system resilience to evaluate such an impact and explores the impact of land use change, especially land conversion induced by urbanization on regional development through the lens of urban-rural resilience. The empirical case is based on the Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei Urban Agglomeration (BTHUA) in China from 2000 to 2020 when there was rapid urbanization in this region. The results show that along with urbanization in the BTHUA, urban-rural resilience is high in urban core areas and low in peripheral areas. From the urban core to the rural outskirts, there is a general trend that comprehensive resilience decreases with decreased social resilience and increased ecological resilience in this region. Specifically, at the city level, comprehensive resilience decreases sharply from the urban center to its 3-5 km buffer zone and then remains relatively stable in the rural regions. A similar trend goes for social resilience at the city level, while ecological resilience increases sharply from the urban center to its 1-3 km buffer zone, and then remains relatively stable in the rural regions in this region, except for cities in the west and south of Hebei. This study contributes to the conceptualization and measurement of urban-rural resilience in the urban-rural system with empirical findings revealing the impact of rapid urbanization on urban-rural resilience over the last twenty years in the BTHUA in China. In addition, the spatial heterogeneity results could be used for policy reference to make targeted resilience strategies in the study region.

Spatiotemporal dynamics of ecological security in a typical conservation region of southern China based on catastrophe theory and GIS

Ecological security assessment can effectively reflect the ecological status of a region and reveal its level of sustainable development. In this paper, an ecological security-oriented evaluation system was constructed, and the ecological security level of the Dongjiangyuan region from 2000 to 2020 was evaluated based on catastrophe theory and GIS. The results were as follows: (1) As shown in the land use and cover maps, by 2020, the forestland area had decreased the most, and the artificial surface area had increased the most. (2) The ecological security index of the Dongjiangyuan region showed a low trend in the artificial surface area and its surrounding areas. The quite low values of the ecological security index in 2000 and 2010 were improved in 2020 due to the increase in ecological services capacity. The increased vegetation cover from 2000 to 2020 promoted the improved ecological service capacity. (3) The rapid urbanization process in the Dongjiangyuan region resulted in a lower ecological sensitivity index value. Notably, the ecological sensitivity index of the study area had a slightly decreasing trend. (4) The spatial autocorrelation showed that the proportion of hot and cold spots from 2000 to 2020 decreased by 2.96% and 6.91%, respectively. This study can provide a scientific basis and decision-making guidance for ecological management in the Dongjiangyuan region in the future.

Empiric recommendations for population disaggregation under different data scenarios

High-resolution population mapping is of high relevance for developing and implementing tailored actions in several fields: From decision making in crisis management to urban planning. Earth Observation has considerably contributed to the development of methods for disaggregating population figures with higher resolution data into fine-grained population maps. However, which method is most suitable on the basis of the available data, and how the spatial units and accuracy metrics affect the validation process is not fully known. We aim to provide recommendations to researches that attempt to produce high-resolution population maps using remote sensing and geospatial information in heterogeneous urban landscapes. For this purpose, we performed a comprehensive experimental research on population disaggregation methods with thirty-six different scenarios. We combined five different top-down methods (from basic to complex, i.e., binary and categorical dasymetric, statistical, and binary and categorical hybrid approaches) on different subsets of data with diverse resolutions and degrees of availability (poor, average and rich). Then, the resulting population maps were systematically validated with a two-fold approach using six accuracy metrics. We found that when only using remotely sensed data the combination of statistical and dasymetric methods provide better results, while highly-resolved data require simpler methods. Besides, the use of at least three relative accuracy metrics is highly encouraged since the validation depends on level and method. We also analysed the behaviour of relative errors and how they are affected by the heterogeneity of the urban landscape. We hope that our recommendations save additional efforts and time in future population mapping.

High-Precision Population Spatialization in Metropolises Based on Ensemble Learning: A Case Study of Beijing, China

Accurate spatial population distribution information, especially for metropolises, is of significant value and is fundamental to many application areas such as public health, urban development planning and disaster assessment management. Random forest is the most widely used model in population spatialization studies. However, a reliable model for accurately mapping the spatial distribution of metropolitan populations is still lacking due to the inherent limitations of the random forest model and the complexity of the population spatialization problem. In this study, we integrate gradient-boosting decision tree (GBDT), extreme gradient boosting (XGBoost), light gradient-boosting machine (LightGBM) and support vector regression (SVR) through ensemble-learning algorithm-stacking to construct a novel population-spatialization model we name GXLS-Stacking. We integrate socioeconomic data that enhance the characterization of the population’s spatial distribution (e.g., point-of-interest data, building outline data with height, artificial impervious surface data, etc.) and natural environmental data with a combination of census data to train the model to generate a high-precision gridded population density map with a 100 m spatial resolution for Beijing in 2020. Finally, the generated gridded population density map is validated at the pixel level using the highest resolution validation data (i.e., community household registration data) in the current study. The results show that the GXLS-Stacking model can predict the population’s spatial distribution with high precision (R2 = 0.8004, MAE = 34.67 persons/hectare, RMSE = 54.92 persons/hectare), and its overall performance is not only better than the four individual models but also better than the random forest model. Compared to the natural environmental features, a city’s socioeconomic features are more capable in characterizing the spatial distribution of the population and the intensity of human activities. In addition, the gridded population density map obtained by the GXLS-Stacking model can provide highly accurate information on the population’s spatial distribution and can be used to analyze the spatial patterns of metropolitan population density. Moreover, the GXLS-Stacking model has the ability to be generalized to metropolises with comprehensive and high-quality data, whether in China or in other countries. Furthermore, for small and medium-sized cities, our modeling process can still provide an effective reference for their population spatialization methods.

Effectiveness of the Qilian Mountain Nature Reserve of China in Reducing Human Impacts

The management effectiveness of protected areas plays a key role in biodiversity and ecosystem services conservation. We evaluated the effectiveness of Qilian Mountain Nature Reserve (QMNR) in reducing human footprint (HF). Four dominant human activity factors, including population density, land use, road distribution, and night light, were incorporated for HF mapping. Comparisons of the HF value between inside and outside QMNR and its four functional zones were conducted. The results show that both the HF inside and outside of QMNR were increasing, but the difference between them was increasing, indicating partial management effectiveness. The north part of the central reserve has a good effect in reducing human impacts, while the effectiveness was poor at both ends of the reserve. The HF value of the most strictly managed core and buffer zones increased by 10.50 and 6.68%, respectively, for 2010–2020. The QMNR was effective in controlling population density and land use, but ineffective in reducing road construction, mining, and construction of hydropower facilities.

Assessment of Spatial Temporal Changes of Ecological Environment Quality: A Case Study in Huaibei City, China

Under the short-term economic development goal, the excessive exploitation of natural resources and the destruction of the ecological environment make the ecological environment of Huaibei cities increasingly fragile. This study constructed the Remote Sensing Ecological Index (RSEI) to evaluate the ecological environment change trend and its driving factors in Huaibei City from 2000 to 2020. The barycenter migration model was used to determine the RSEI spatial change trend, and the geographic detector was used to analyze the influencing factors of the RSEI value change. The results showed that: (1) the average RSEI value of Huaibei City generally fluctuates within the range of good and excellent grades. (2) The migration direction of the barycenter of RSEI is similar when the level of RSEI improves or decreases from 2000 to 2020, and the barycenter migration is most severe from 2005 to 2015. (3) The driving factors of RSEI change were population density (0.47) > land use (0.24) > slope (0.14) > precipitation (0.08) > temperature (0.04) > altitude (0.03). All the factors had interaction effects on the RSEI, mainly with nonlinear enhancement. (4) From 2000 to 2010, urban construction encroached on all kinds of land, which was the direct reason for the decline in ecological environment quality. From 2010 to 2020, the surge of water and meadow areas improved the ecological environment quality of Huaibei city. Therefore, reducing the expansion of artificial land, returning farmland to forests and meadows, wetland park construction, and other ecological protection measures are the keys to ensuring the sustainable development of regional social and economic development. This study can provide a reference and scientific basis for sustainable development strategy and ecological protection planning to improve the ecological environment quality of Huaibei City.

Population spatialization at building scale based on residential population index—A case study of Qingdao city

The study of population spatialization has provided important basic data for urban planning, development, environment and other issues. With the development of urbanization, urban residential buildings are getting higher and higher, and the difference between urban and rural population density is getting larger and larger. At present, most population spatial studies adopt the grid scale, and the population in buildings is evenly divided into various grids, which will lead to the neglect of the population distribution in vertical space, and the authenticity is not strong. In order to improve the accuracy of the population distribution, this paper studied the spatial distribution of population at the building scale, combined the digital surface model (DSM) and the digital elevation model (DEM) to calculate the floor of buildings, and proposed a new index based on the total floor area of residential buildings, called residential population index (RPI). RPI is directly related to the number of people a building can accommodate, so it can effectively estimate the population of both urban and rural areas even if the structure of urban and rural buildings is very different. In addition, this paper combined remote sensing monitoring data with geographic big data and adopted principal component regression (PCR) method to construct RPI prediction model to obtain building-scale population distribution data of Qingdao in 2018, providing ideas for population spatialization research. Through field sampling survey and overall assessment, the results were basically consistent with the actual residential situation. The average error with field survey samples is 14.5%. The R² is 0.643 and the urbanization rate is 69.7%, which are all higher than WorldPop data set. Therefore, this method can reflect the specific distribution of urban resident population, enhance the heterogeneity and complexity of population distribution, and the estimated results have important reference significance for urban management, urban resource allocation, environmental protection and other fields.

Exploring the Multiscale Relationship between the Built Environment and the Metro-Oriented Dockless Bike-Sharing Usage

Dockless bike-sharing systems have become one of the important transport methods for urban residents as they can effectively expand the metro’s service area. We applied the ordinary least square (OLS) model, the geographically weighted regression (GWR) model and the multiscale geographically weighted regression (MGWR) model to capture the spatial relationship between the urban built environment and the usage of bike-sharing connected to the metro. A case study in Beijing, China, was conducted. The empirical result demonstrates that the MGWR model can explain the varieties of spatial relationship more precisely than the OLS model and the GWR model. The result also shows that, among the proposed built environment factors, the integrated usage of bike-sharing and metro is mainly affected by the distance to central business district (CBD), the Hotels-Residences points of interest (POI) density, and the road density. It is noteworthy that the effect of population density on dockless bike-sharing usage is only significant at weekends. In addition, the effects of the built environment variables on dockless bike-sharing usage also vary across space. A common feature is that most of the built environment factors have a more obvious impact on the metro-oriented dockless bike-sharing usage in the eastern part of the study area. This finding can provide support for governments and urban planners to efficiently develop a bike-sharing-friendly built environment that promotes the integration of bike-sharing and metro.

Towards an Improved Large-Scale Gridded Population Dataset: A Pan-European Study on the Integration of 3D Settlement Data into Population Modelling

Large-scale gridded population datasets available at the global or continental scale have become an important source of information in applications related to sustainable development. In recent years, the emergence of new population models has leveraged the inclusion of more accurate and spatially detailed proxy layers describing the built-up environment (e.g., built-area and building footprint datasets), enhancing the quality, accuracy and spatial resolution of existing products. However, due to the consistent lack of vertical and functional information on the built-up environment, large-scale gridded population datasets that rely on existing built-up land proxies still report large errors of under- and overestimation, especially in areas with predominantly high-rise buildings or industrial/commercial areas, respectively. This research investigates, for the first time, the potential contributions of the new World Settlement Footprint—3D (WSF3D) dataset in the field of large-scale population modelling. First, we combined a Random Forest classifier with spatial metrics derived from the WSF3D to predict the industrial versus non-industrial use of settlement pixels at the Pan-European scale. We then examined the effects of including volume and settlement use information into frameworks of dasymetric population modelling. We found that the proposed classification method can predict industrial and non-industrial areas with overall accuracies and a kappa-coefficient of ~84% and 0.68, respectively. Additionally, we found that both, integrating volume and settlement use information considerably increased the accuracy of population estimates between 10% and 30% over commonly employed models (e.g., based on a binary settlement mask as input), mainly by eliminating systematic large overestimations in industrial/commercial areas. While the proposed method shows strong promise for overcoming some of the main limitations in large-scale population modelling, future research should focus on improving the quality of the WFS3D dataset and the classification method alike, to avoid the false detection of built-up settlements and to reduce misclassification errors of industrial and high-rise buildings.

Full-coverage spatiotemporal mapping of ambient PM2.5 and PM10 over China from Sentinel-5P and assimilated datasets: Considering the precursors and chemical compositions

Ambient concentrations of particulate matters (PM_2.5 and PM₁₀) are significant indicators for monitoring the air quality relevant to living conditions. At present, most remote sensing based approaches for the estimation of PM_2.5 and PM₁₀ employed Aerosol Optical Depth (AOD) products as the main variate. Nevertheless, the coverage of missing data is generally large in AOD products, which can cause deviations in practical applications of estimated PM_2.5 and PM₁₀ (e.g., air quality monitoring and exposure evaluation). To efficiently address this issue, our study explores a novel approach using the datasets of the precursors & chemical compositions for PM_2.5 and PM₁₀ instead of AOD products. Specifically, the daily full-coverage ambient concentrations of PM_2.5 and PM₁₀ are estimated at 5-km (0.05°) spatial girds across China based on Sentinel-5P and assimilated datasets (GEOS-FP). The estimation models are acquired via an advanced ensemble learning method named Light Gradient Boosting Machine in this paper. For comparison, the Deep Blue AOD product from VIIRS is adopted in a similar framework as a baseline (AOD-based). Validation results show that the ambient concentrations are well estimated through the proposed approach, with the space-based Cross-Validation R²s and RMSEs of 0.88 (0.83) and 11.549 (22.9) μg/m³ for PM_2.5 (PM₁₀), respectively. Meanwhile, the proposed approach achieves better performance than the AOD-based in different cases (e.g., overall and seasonal). Compared to the related previous works over China, the estimation accuracy of our method is also satisfactory. Regarding the mapping, the estimated results through the proposed approach display consecutive spatial distribution and can exactly express the seasonal variations of PM_2.5 and PM₁₀. The proposed approach could efficiently present daily full-coverage results at 5-km spatial grids. It has a large potential to be extended for providing global accurate ambient concentrations of PM_2.5 and PM₁₀ at multiple temporal scales (e.g., daily and annual).

Which Gridded Population Data Product Is Better? Evidences from Mainland Southeast Asia (MSEA)

The release of global gridded population datasets, including the Gridded Population of the World (GPW), Global Human Settlement Population Grid (GHS-POP), WorldPop, and LandScan, have greatly facilitated cross-comparison for ongoing research related to anthropogenic impacts. However, little attention is paid to the consistency and discrepancy of these gridded products in the regions with rapid changes in local population, e.g., Mainland Southeast Asia (MSEA), where the countries have experienced fast population growth since the 1950s. This awkward situation is unsurprisingly aggravated because of national scarce demographics and incomplete census counts, which further limits their appropriate usage. Thus, comparative analyses of them become the priority of their better application. Here, the consistency and discrepancy of the four common global gridded population datasets were cross-compared by combing the 2015 provincial population statistics (census and yearbooks) via error-comparison based statistical methods. The results showed that: (1) the LandScan performs the best both in spatial accuracy and estimated errors, then followed by the WorldPop, GHS-POP, and GPW in MSEA. (2) Provincial differences in estimated errors indicated that the LandScan better reveals the spatial pattern of population density in Thailand and Vietnam, while the WorldPop performs slightly better in Myanmar and Laos, and both fit well in Cambodia. (3) Substantial errors among the four gridded datasets normally occur in the provincial units with larger population density (over 610 persons/km2) and a rapid population growth rate (greater than 1.54%), respectively. The new findings in MSEA indicated that future usage of these datasets should pay attention to the estimated population in the areas characterized by high population density and rapid population growth.

Dynamic Assessment of the Impact of Flood Disaster on Economy and Population under Extreme Rainstorm Events

In the context of climate change and rapid urbanization, flood disaster loss caused by extreme rainstorm events is becoming more and more serious. An accurate assessment of flood disaster loss has become a key issue. In this study, extreme rainstorm scenarios with 50- and 100-year return periods based on the Chicago rain pattern were designed. The dynamic change process of flood disaster loss was obtained by using a 1D–2D coupled model, Hazard Rating (HR) method, machine learning, and ArcPy script. The results show that under extreme rainstorm events, the direct economic loss and affected population account for about 3% of the total GDP and 16% of the total population, respectively, and built-up land is the main disaster area. In addition, the initial time and the peak time of flood disaster loss increases with an increasing flood hazard degree and decreases with the increase in the return period. The total loss increases with the increase in the return period, and the unit loss decreases with the increase in the return period. Compared with a static assessment, a dynamic assessment can better reveal the development law of flood disaster loss, which has great significance for flood risk management and the mitigation of flood disaster loss.

How Does Urban Sprawl Affect Public Health? Evidence from Panel Survey Data in Urbanizing China

This study takes urbanizing China as the research object, employs data from three follow-up surveys conducted by the Harmonized China Health and Retirement Longitudinal Study, and examines the effects of urban sprawl on public health from physical and mental health perspectives. Although urban sprawl does not necessarily increase the risk of each specific type of disease or psychological feeling, it has a significant impact on overall physical and mental health. Further analysis reveals significant heterogeneity in the effects of urban sprawl on the physical and mental health of different groups. Specifically, urban sprawl is detrimental to the physical health of males and females, but only has negative impact on the mental health of females. Younger groups are more vulnerable to physical and mental health damage from urban sprawl relative to middle-aged and older groups. In addition, urban sprawl has a significant negative impact on the health of the low-education group but a very limited impact on the health of the high-education counterpart. From an income perspective, however, the preference for suburban housing among middle- and high-income groups makes their health more vulnerable to the negative effects of urban sprawl than low-income groups living in urban centers.

How Does Low-Density Urbanization Reduce the Financial Sustainability of Chinese Cities? A Debt Perspective

Low-density urbanization threatens urban social and ecological sustainability not only directly by excessively encroaching on suburban farmland and ecological space, but may also indirectly do so by undermining the financial basis of sustainable urban development. To address this relationship, this study empirically examines the effect of low-density urbanization on local government debt by using panel data of prefecture-level cities in China from 2006 to 2015. Results show that the scale of local government debt increases significantly with a rise in urban expansion. Furthermore, this study found that low-density urbanization affects local government debt in two ways. First, low-density urban expansion reduces the land output efficiency, which decreases potential fiscal revenue and thus increases local government debt. Second, low-density urban expansion raises the construction and maintenance expenditure of urban infrastructure, which increases the demand for urban construction financing and thus pushes up the scale of debt. The results of the heterogeneous study indicate that low-density urbanization significantly affects local government debt mainly in Central/Western regions, small and medium-sized cities, cities with high fiscal stress and development pressure, and residentially expanding cities. On the contrary, low-density urbanization has no significant effect on the Eastern regions, large cities, cities with low fiscal stress and development pressure, and spatially expanding cities. This study theoretically explored and empirically verified a critical indirect effect of low-density urbanization on urban sustainability by increasing fiscal risks, which is, and will continue to be, a common and vital challenge faced by cities in China and other rapidly urbanizing developing countries.

Gridded population mapping for Germany based on building density, height and type from Earth Observation data using census disaggregation and bottom-up estimates

Gridded population data is widely used to map fine scale population patterns and dynamics to understand associated human-environmental processes for global change research, disaster risk assessment and other domains. This study mapped gridded population across Germany using weighting layers from building density, building height (both from previous studies) and building type datasets, all created from freely available, temporally and globally consistent Copernicus Sentinel-1 and Sentinel-2 data. We first produced and validated a nation-wide dataset of predominant residential and non-residential building types. We then examined the impact of different weighting layers from density, type and height on top-down dasymetric mapping quality across scales. We finally performed a nation-wide bottom-up population estimate based on the three datasets. We found that integrating building types into dasymetric mapping is helpful at fine scale, as population is not redistributed to non-residential areas. Building density improved the overall quality of population estimates at all scales compared to using a binary building layer. Most importantly, we found that the combined use of density and height, i.e. volume, considerably increased mapping quality in general and with regard to regional discrepancy by largely eliminating systematic underestimation in dense agglomerations and overestimation in rural areas. We also found that building density, type and volume, together with living floor area per capita, are suitable to produce accurate large-area bottom-up population estimates.

Using satellite imagery to understand and promote sustainable development

Accurate and comprehensive measurements of a range of sustainable development outcomes are fundamental inputs into both research and policy. We synthesize the growing literature that uses satellite imagery to understand these outcomes, with a focus on approaches that combine imagery with machine learning. We quantify the paucity of ground data on key human-related outcomes and the growing abundance and improving resolution (spatial, temporal, and spectral) of satellite imagery. We then review recent machine learning approaches to model-building in the context of scarce and noisy training data, highlighting how this noise often leads to incorrect assessment of model performance. We quantify recent model performance across multiple sustainable development domains, discuss research and policy applications, explore constraints to future progress, and highlight research directions for the field.

High-Resolution Gridded Population Datasets: Exploring the Capabilities of the World Settlement Footprint 2019 Imperviousness Layer for the African Continent

The field of human population mapping is constantly evolving, leveraging the increasing availability of high-resolution satellite imagery and the advancements in the field of machine learning. In recent years, the emergence of global built-area datasets that accurately describe the extent, location, and characteristics of human settlements has facilitated the production of new population grids, with improved quality, accuracy, and spatial resolution. In this research, we explore the capabilities of the novel World Settlement Footprint 2019 Imperviousness layer (WSF2019-Imp), as a single proxy in the production of a new high-resolution population distribution dataset for all of Africa—the WSF2019-Population dataset (WSF2019-Pop). Results of a comprehensive qualitative and quantitative assessment indicate that the WSF2019-Imp layer has the potential to overcome the complexities and limitations of top-down binary and multi-layer approaches of large-scale population mapping, by delivering a weighting framework which is spatially consistent and free of applicability restrictions. The increased thematic detail and spatial resolution (~10 m at the Equator) of the WSF2019-Imp layer improve the spatial distribution of populations at local scales, where fully built-up settlement pixels are clearly differentiated from settlement pixels that share a proportion of their area with green spaces, such as parks or gardens. Overall, eighty percent of the African countries reported estimation accuracies with percentage mean absolute errors between ~15% and ~32%, and 50% of the validation units in more than half of the countries reported relative errors below 20%. Here, the remaining lack of information on the vertical dimension and the functional characterisation of the built-up environment are still remaining limitations affecting the quality and accuracy of the final population datasets.

Understanding dynamics of population flood exposure in Canada with multiple high-resolution population datasets

In recent years, geospatial data (e.g. remote sensing imagery), and other relevant ancillary datasets (e.g. land use land cover, climate conditions) have been utilized through sophisticated algorithms to produce global population datasets. With a handful of such datasets, their performances and skill in flood exposure assessment have not been explored. This study proposes a comprehensive framework to understand the dynamics and differences in population flood exposure over Canada by employing four global population datasets alongside the census data from Statistics Canada as the reference. The flood exposure is quantified based on a set of floodplain maps (for 2015, 1 in 100-yr and 1 in 200-yr event) for Canada derived from the CaMa-Flood global flood model. To obtain further insights at the regional level, the methodology is implemented over six flood-prone River Basins in Canada. We find that about 9% (3.31 million) and 11% (3.90 million) of the Canadian population resides within 1 in 100-yr and 1 in 200-yr floodplains. We notice an excellent performance of WorldPop, and LandScan in most of the cases, which is unaffected by the representation of flood hazard, while Global Human Settlement and Gridded Population of the World showed large deviations. At last, we determined the long-term dynamics of population flood exposure and vulnerability from 2006 to 2019. Through this analysis, we also identify the regions that contain a significantly larger population exposed to floods. The relevant conclusions derived from the study highlight the need for careful selection of population datasets for preventing further amplification of uncertainties in flood risk. We recommend a detailed assessment of the severely exposed regions by including precise ground-level information. The results derived from this study may be useful not only for flood risk management but also contribute to understanding other disaster impacts on human-environment interrelationships.

Overexpression of the chloroplastic 2-oxoglutarate/malate transporter disturbs carbon and nitrogen homeostasis in rice

The chloroplastic 2-oxaloacetate (OAA)/malate transporter (OMT1 or DiT1) takes part in the malate valve that protects chloroplasts from excessive redox poise through export of malate and import of OAA. Together with the glutamate/malate transporter (DCT1 or DiT2), it connects carbon with nitrogen assimilation, by providing 2-oxoglutarate for the GS/GOGAT (glutamine synthetase/glutamate synthase) reaction and exporting glutamate to the cytoplasm. OMT1 further plays a prominent role in C4 photosynthesis: OAA resulting from phosphoenolpyruvate carboxylation is imported into the chloroplast, reduced to malate by plastidic NADP-malate dehydrogenase, and then exported for transport to bundle sheath cells. Both transport steps are catalyzed by OMT1, at the rate of net carbon assimilation. To engineer C4 photosynthesis into C3 crops, OMT1 must be expressed in high amounts on top of core C4 metabolic enzymes. We report here high-level expression of ZmOMT1 from maize in rice (Oryza sativa ssp. indica IR64). Increased activity of the transporter in transgenic rice was confirmed by reconstitution of transporter activity into proteoliposomes. Unexpectedly, overexpression of ZmOMT1 in rice negatively affected growth, CO2 assimilation rate, total free amino acid content, tricarboxylic acid cycle metabolites, as well as sucrose and starch contents. Accumulation of high amounts of aspartate and the impaired growth phenotype of OMT1 rice lines could be suppressed by simultaneous overexpression of ZmDiT2. Implications for engineering C4 rice are discussed.

The long-term trend of PM2.5-related mortality in China: The effects of source data selection

Quantification of PM_2.5 exposure and associated mortality is critical to inform policy making. Previous studies estimated varying PM_2.5-related mortality in China due to the usage of different source data, but rarely justify the data selection. To quantify the sensitivity of mortality assessment to source data, we first constructed state-of-the-art PM_2.5 predictions during 2000-2018 at a 1-km resolution with an ensemble machine learning model that filled missing data explicitly. We also calibrated and fused various gridded population data with a geostatistical method. Then we assessed the PM_2.5-related mortality with various PM_2.5 predictions, population distributions, exposure-response functions, and baseline mortalities. We found that in addition to the well documented uncertainties in the exposure-response functions, missingness in PM_2.5 prediction, PM_2.5 prediction error, and prediction error in population distribution resulted to a 40.5%, 25.2% and 15.9% lower mortality assessment compared to the mortality assessed with the best-performed source data, respectively. With the best-performed source data, we estimated a total of approximately 25 million PM_2.5-related mortality during 2001-2017 in China. From 2001 to 2017, The PM_2.5 variations, growth and aging of population, decrease in baseline mortality led to a 7.8% increase, a 42.0% increase and a 24.6% decrease in PM_2.5-related mortality, separately. We showed that with the strict clean air policies implemented in 2013, the population-weighted PM_2.5 concentration decreased remarkably at an annual rate of 4.5 μg/m³, leading to a decrease of 179 thousand PM_2.5-related deaths nationwide during 2013-2017. The mortality decrease due to PM_2.5 reduction was offset by the population growth and aging population.

Mapping Changing Population Distribution on the Qinghai–Tibet Plateau since 2000 with Multi-Temporal Remote Sensing and Point-of-Interest Data

Advanced developments have been achieved in urban human population estimation, however, there is still a considerable research gap for the mapping of remote rural populations. In this study, based on demographic data at the town-level, multi-temporal high-resolution remote sensing data, and local population-sensitive point-of-interest (POI) data, we tailored a random forest-based dasymetric approach to map population distribution on the Qinghai–Tibet Plateau (QTP) for 2000, 2010, and 2016 with a spatial resolution of 1000 m. We then analyzed the temporal and spatial change of this distribution. The results showed that the QTP has a sparse population distribution overall; in large areas of the northern QTP, the population density is zero, accounting for about 14% of the total area of the QTP. About half of the QTP showed a rapid increase in population density between 2000 and 2016, mainly located in the eastern and southern parts of Qinghai Province and the central-eastern parts of the Tibet Autonomous Region. Regarding the relative importance of variables in explaining population density, the variables “Distance to Temples” is the most important, followed by “Density of Villages” and “Elevation”. Furthermore, our new products exhibited higher accuracy compared with five recently released gridded population density datasets, namely WorldPop, Gridded Population of the World version 4, and three national gridded population datasets for China. Both the root-mean-square error (RMSE) and mean absolute error (MAE) for our products were about half of those of the compared products except for WorldPop. This study provides a reference for using fine-scale demographic count and local population-sensitive POIs to model changing population distribution in remote rural areas.

Assessment of Population Exposure to Urban Flood at the Building Scale

The assessment of populations affected by urban flooding is crucial for flood prevention and mitigation but is highly influenced by the accuracy of population datasets. The population distribution is related to buildings during the urban floods, so assessing the population at the building scale is more rational for the urban floods, which is possible due to the abundance of multi-source data and advances in GIS technology. Therefore, this study assesses the populations affected by urban floods through population mapping at the building scale using highly correlated point of interest (POI) data. The population distribution is first mapped by downscaling the grid-based WorldPop population data to the building scale. Then, the population affected by urban floods is estimated by superimposing the population data sets onto flood areas, with flooding simulated by the LISFLOOD-FP hydrodynamic model. Finally, the proposed method is applied to Lishui City in southeast China. The results show that the population affected by urban floods is significantly reduced for different rainstorm scenarios when using the building-scale population instead of WorldPop. In certain areas, populations not captured by WorldPop can be identified using the building-scale population. This study provides a new method for estimating populations affected by urban flooding.

Mapping the Population Density in Mainland China Using NPP/VIIRS and Points-Of-Interest Data Based on a Random Forests Model

Understanding the spatial distribution of populations at a finer spatial scale has important value for many applications, such as disaster risk rescue operations, business decision-making, and regional planning. In this study, a random forest (RF)-based population density mapping method was proposed in order to generate high-precision population density data with a 100 m × 100 m grid in mainland China in 2015 (hereafter referred to as ‘Popi’). Besides the commonly used elevation, slope, Normalized Vegetation Index (NDVI), land use/land cover, roads, and National Polar Orbiting Partnership/Visible Infrared Imaging Radiometer Suite (NPP/VIIRS), 16,101,762 records of points of interest (POIs) and 2867 county-level censuses were used in order to develop the model. Furthermore, 28,505 township-level censuses (74% of the total number of townships) were collected in order to evaluate the accuracy of the Popi product. The results showed that the utilization of multi-source data (especially the combination of POIs and NPP/VIIRS data) can effectively improve the accuracy of population mapping at a finer scale. The feature importances of the POIs and NPP/VIIRS are 0.49 and 0.14, respectively, which are higher values than those obtained for other natural factors. Compared with the Worldpop population dataset, the Popi data exhibited a higher accuracy. The number of accurately-estimated townships was 19,300 (67.7%) in the Popi product and 16,237 (56.9%) in the Worldpop product. The Root Mean Squared Error (RMSE) and Mean Absolute Error (MAE) were 14,839 and 7218, respectively, for Popi, and 18,014 and 8572, respectively, for Worldpop. The research method in this paper could provide a reference for the spatialization of other socioeconomic data (such as GDP).

Multiple Global Population Datasets: Differences and Spatial Distribution Characteristics

Spatial data of regional populations are indispensable in studying the impact of human activities on resource utilization and the ecological environment. Because the differences between datasets and their spatial distribution are still unclear, this has become a puzzle in data selection and application. This study is based on four mainstream spatialized population datasets: the History Database of the Global Environment version 3.2.000 (HYDE), Gridded Population of the World version 4 (GPWv4), Global Human Settlement Layer (GHSL), and WorldPop. In view of possible influences of geographical factors, this study analyzes the differences in accuracy of population estimation by computing relative errors and population spatial distribution consistency in different regions by comparing datasets pixel by pixel. The results demonstrate the following: (1) Source data, spatialization methods, and case area features affect the precision of datasets. As the main data source is statistical data and the spatialization method maintains the population in the administrative region, the populations of GPWv4 and GHSL are closest to the statistical data value. (2) The application of remote sensing, mobile communication, and other geospatial data makes the datasets more accurate in the United Kingdom, with rich information, and the absolute value of relative errors is less than 4%. In the Tibet Autonomous Region of China, where data are hard to obtain, the four datasets have larger relative errors. However, the area where the four datasets are completely consistent is as high as 84.73% in Tibet, while in the UK it is only 66.76%. (3) The areas where the spatial patterns of the four datasets are completely consistent are mainly distributed in areas with low population density, or with developed urbanization and concentrated population distribution. Areas where the datasets have poor consistency are mainly distributed in medium population density areas with high urbanization levels. Therefore, in such areas, a more careful assessment should be made during the data application process, and more emphasis should be placed on improving data accuracy when using spatialization methods.

An Improved Method of Determining Human Population Distribution Based on Luojia 1-01 Nighttime Light Imagery and Road Network Data-A Case Study of the City of Shenzhen

Previously published studies on population distribution were based on the provincial level, while the number of urban-level studies is more limited. In addition, the rough spatial resolution of traditional nighttime light (NTL) data has limited their fine application in current small-scale population distribution research. For the purpose of studying the spatial distribution of populations at the urban scale, we proposed a new index (i.e., the road network adjusted human settlement index, RNAHSI) by integrating Luojia 1-01 (LJ 1-01) NTL data, the enhanced vegetation index (EVI), and road network density (RND) data based on population density relationships to depict the spatial distribution of urban human settlements. The RNAHSI updated the high-resolution NTL data and combined the RND data on the basis of human settlement index (HSI) data to refine the spatial pattern of urban population distribution. The results indicated that the mean relative error (MRE) between the population estimation data based on the RNAHSI and the demographic data was 34.80%, which was lower than that in the HSI and WorldPop dataset. This index is suitable primarily for the study of urban population distribution, as the RNAHSI can clearly highlight human activities in areas with dense urban road networks and can refine the spatial heterogeneity of impervious areas. In addition, we also drew a population density map of the city of Shenzhen with a 100 m spatial resolution for 2018 based on the RNAHSI, which has great reference significance for urban management and urban resource allocation.

Changes in spatial patterns of PM2.5 pollution in China 2000-2018: Impact of clean air policies

To improve air quality, China has been implementing strict clean air policies since 2013. These policies not only substantially improved air quality but may also modify the spatial distribution of air pollution, since urban emission sources were under stricter control and some were moved to rural regions with lower air quality improvement targets and lacking of monitoring. Here, we predicted satellite-based monthly PM_2.5 concentrations during 2000-2018 at a 1-km resolution with complete spatial-temporal coverage to analyze changes in the spatial pattern of PM_2.5 pollution in China. We found that the PM_2.5 concentration in urban regions was higher than that in rural regions of the same city by an average of 3.3 μg/m³ during 2000-2018. This urban-rural disparity in PM_2.5 concentration significantly increased from 2.5 μg/m³ in 2000 and peaked in 2007 of 3.8 μg/m³, then it sharply declined by 49% during 2013-2018 with the implementation of clean air policies. This shrinkage in the urban-rural PM_2.5 gap was partly due to the 1.3 μg/m³ greater average decrease in the PM_2.5 level in the urban region than in the rural region of the same town during 2013-2018 on average. We also observed that cities that started monitoring earlier experienced greater decreases in the urban-rural PM_2.5 difference, and regions surrounding monitor showed significantly greater PM_2.5 decrease than regions far away from monitor during 2013-2018. Additionally, clean air policies modified the relationship between PM_2.5 concentrations and per capita gross domestic product (GDP), leading to a lower PM_2.5 level with the same per capita GDP after 2013. Emissions in rural and suburban regions should be considered to further improve air quality in China.

GHS-POP Accuracy Assessment: Poland and Portugal Case Study

The Global Human Settlement Population Grid (GHS-POP) the latest released global gridded population dataset based on remotely sensed data and developed by the EU Joint Research Centre, depicts the distribution and density of the total population as the number of people per grid cell. This study aims to assess the GHS-POP data accuracy based on root mean square error (RMSE), mean absolute error (MAE), and mean absolute percentage error (MAPE) and the correlation coefficient. The study was conducted for Poland and Portugal, countries characterized by different population distribution as well as two spatial resolutions of 250 m and 1 km on the GHS-POP. The main findings show that as the size of administrative zones decreases (from NUTS (Nomenclature of Territorial Units for Statistics) to LAU (local administrative unit)) and the size of the GHS-POP increases, the difference between the population counts reported by the European Statistical Office and estimated by the GHS-POP algorithm becomes larger. At the national level, MAPE ranges from 1.8% to 4.5% for the 250 m and 1 km resolutions of GHS-POP data in Portugal and 1.5% to 1.6%, respectively in Poland. At the local level, however, the error rates range from 4.5% to 5.8% in Poland, for 250 m and 1 km, and 5.7% to 11.6% in Portugal, respectively. Moreover, the results show that for densely populated regions the GHS-POP underestimates the population number, while for thinly populated regions it overestimates. The conclusions of this study are expected to serve as a quality reference for potential users and producers of population density datasets.

Spatially Explicit Mapping of Historical Population Density with Random Forest Regression: A Case Study of Gansu Province, China, in 1820 and 2000

This study established a random forest regression model (RFRM) using terrain factors, climatic and river factors, distances to the capitals of provinces, prefectures (Fu, in Chinese Pinyin), and counties as independent variables to predict the population density. Then, using the RFRM, we explicitly reconstructed the spatial distribution of the population density of Gansu Province, China, in 1820 and 2000, at a resolution of 10 by 10 km. By comparing the explicit reconstruction with census data at the township level from 2000, we found that the RFRM-based approach mostly reproduced the spatial variability in the population density, with a determination coefficient (R2) of 0.82, a positive reduction of error (RE, 0.72) and a coefficient of efficiency (CE) of 0.65. The RFRM-based reconstructions show that the population of Gansu Province in 1820 was mostly distributed in the Lanzhou, Gongchang, Pingliang, Qinzhou, Qingyang, and Ningxia prefecture. The macro-spatial pattern of the population density in 2000 kept approximately similar with that in 1820. However, fine differences could be found. The 79.92% of the population growth of Gansu Province from 1820 to 2000 occurred in areas lower than 2500 m. As a result, the population weighting in the areas above 2500 m was ~9% in 1820 while it was greater than 14% in 2000. Moreover, in comparison to 1820, the population density intensified in Lanzhou, Xining, Yinchuan, Baiyin, Linxia, and Tianshui, while it weakened in Gongchang, Qingyang, Ganzhou, and Suzhou.

New Perspectives for Mapping Global Population Distribution Using World Settlement Footprint Products

In the production of gridded population maps, remotely sensed, human settlement datasets rank among the most important geographical factors to estimate population densities and distributions at regional and global scales. Within this context, the German Aerospace Centre (DLR) has developed a new suite of global layers, which accurately describe the built-up environment and its characteristics at high spatial resolution: (i) the World Settlement Footprint 2015 layer (WSF-2015), a binary settlement mask; and (ii) the experimental World Settlement Footprint Density 2015 layer (WSF-2015-Density), representing the percentage of impervious surface. This research systematically compares the effectiveness of both layers for producing population distribution maps through a dasymetric mapping approach in nine low-, middle-, and highly urbanised countries. Results indicate that the WSF-2015-Density layer can produce population distribution maps with higher qualitative and quantitative accuracies in comparison to the already established binary approach, especially in those countries where a good percentage of building structures have been identified within the rural areas. Moreover, our results suggest that population distribution accuracies could substantially improve through the dynamic preselection of the input layers and the correct parameterisation of the Settlement Size Complexity (SSC) index.

Reliability Analysis of LandScan Gridded Population Data. The Case Study of Poland

The issue of population dataset reliability is of particular importance when it comes to broadening the understanding of spatial structure, pattern and configuration of humans’ geographical location. The aim of the paper was to estimate the reliability of LandScan based on the official Polish Population Grid. The adopted methodology was based on the change detection approach, spatial pattern and continuity analysis, as well as statistical analysis at the grid-cell level. Our results show that the LandScan data can estimate the Polish population very well. The number of grid cells with equal people counts in both datasets amounts to 10.5%. The most and highly reliable data cover 72% of the country territory, while less reliable ones cover only 4.3%. The LandScan algorithm tends to underestimate people counts, with a total value of 79,735 people (0.21%). The highest underestimation was noticed in densely populated areas as well as in the transition areas between urban and rural, while overestimation was observed in moderately populated regions, along main roads and in city centres. The underestimation results mainly from the spatial pattern and size of Polish rural settlements, namely a big number of shadowed single households dispersed over agricultural areas and in the vicinity of forests. An excessive assessment of the number of people may be a consequence of the well-known blooming effect.

Improved population mapping for China using remotely sensed and points-of-interest data within a random forests model

Remote sensing image products (e.g. brightness of nighttime lights and land cover/land use types) have been widely used to disaggregate census data to produce gridded population maps for large geographic areas. The advent of the geospatial big data revolution has created additional opportunities to map population distributions at fine resolutions with high accuracy. A considerable proportion of the geospatial data contains semantic information that indicates different categories of human activities occurring at exact geographic locations. Such information is often lacking in remote sensing data. In addition, the remarkable progress in machine learning provides toolkits for demographers to model complex nonlinear correlations between population and heterogeneous geographic covariates. In this study, a typical type of geospatial big data, points-of-interest (POIs), was combined with multi-source remote sensing data in a random forests model to disaggregate the 2010 county-level census population data to 100 × 100 m grids. Compared with the WorldPop population dataset, our population map showed higher accuracy. The root mean square error for population estimates in Beijing, Shanghai, Guangzhou, and Chongqing for this method and WorldPop were 27,829 and 34,193, respectively. The large under-allocation of the population in urban areas and over-allocation in rural areas in the WorldPop dataset was greatly reduced in this new population map. Apart from revealing the effectiveness of POIs in improving population mapping, this study promises the potential of geospatial big data for mapping other socioeconomic parameters in the future.

Spatial Accessibility of Urban Forests in the Pearl River Delta (PRD), China

The Pearl River Delta (PRD) is one of the most important economic zones both in China and in the world. Its rapid economic development has been associated with many environmental problems such as the loss of forests in urban areas. We estimated the accessibility of forests in the PRD by quantifying spatial proximity and travel time. We found that distances from a large proportion of the points of interest (POIs) (~45%) and urban lands (~38%, where ~49 urban residents live) to the nearest forests were greater than 1000 m; suggesting a low spatial proximity to forests. Urban parks—important outdoor recreational areas—appeared to have insufficient forest coverage within their 1000 m buffer zones. When forest accessibility was measured by travel time under optimal modes of transport; it was less than 15 min for most urban lands (~95%), which accommodates 98% of the total urban population. More importantly; the travel time to the nearest forest was negatively correlated with gross domestic product density (GDPd), but not with population density (POPd). The GDPd and POPd; however; increased log-linearly with the Euclidean distance to the nearest forest. In addition to the low proximity to forests; there existed inequalities among urban residents who live in areas with different levels of GDPd and POPd. Future urban planning needs not only to increase the total coverage of urban forests; but also to improve their spatial evenness across the urban landscapes in the PRD.

Population Mapping with Multisensor Remote Sensing Images and Point-Of-Interest Data

Fine-resolution population distribution mapping is necessary for many purposes, which cannot be met by aggregated census data due to privacy. Many approaches utilize ancillary data that are related to population density, such as nighttime light imagery and land use, to redistribute the population from census to finer-scale units. However, most of the ancillary data used in the previous studies of population modeling are environmental data, which can only provide a limited capacity to aid population redistribution. Social sensing data with geographic information, such as point-of-interest (POI), are emerging as a new type of ancillary data for urban studies. This study, as a nascent attempt, combined POI and multisensor remote sensing data into new ancillary data to aid population redistribution from census to grid cells at a resolution of 250 m in Zhejiang, China. The accuracy of the results was assessed by comparing them with WorldPop. Results showed that our approach redistributed the population with fewer errors than WorldPop, especially at the extremes of population density. The approach developed in this study—incorporating POI with multisensor remotely sensed data in redistributing the population onto finer-scale spatial units—possessed considerable potential in the era of big data, where a substantial volume of social sensing data is increasingly being collected and becoming available.

Fast Identification of Urban Sprawl Based on K-Means Clustering with Population Density and Local Spatial Entropy

As urban sprawl is proven to jeopardize the sustainability system of cities, the identification of urban sprawl is essential for urban studies. Compared with previous related studies which tend to utilize more and more complicated variables to recognize urban sprawl while still retaining an element of uncertainty, this paper instead proposes a simplified model to identify urban sprawl patterns. This is a working theory which is based on a diagram interpretation of the classic urban spatial structure patterns of the Chicago School. The method used in our study is K-means clustering with gridded population density and local spatial entropy. The results and comparison with open population data and mobile phone data verify the assumption and furthermore indicate that the accuracy of source population data will limit the precision of output identification. This article concludes that urban sprawl is mainly dominated by population and surrounding unevenness. Moreover, the Floating Catchment Area (FCA) local spatial entropy method presented in this research brings about an integration of Shannon entropy, Tobler’s first law of geography and the Moore neighborhood, improving the spatial homogeneity and locality of Batty’s Spatial Entropy model which can only be used in a general scope.