Estimating Disability-Adjusted Life Years (DALYs) in Community Cases of Norovirus in England

Predicted norovirus resurgence in 2021-2022 due to the relaxation of nonpharmaceutical interventions associated with COVID-19 restrictions in England: a mathematical modeling study

BACKGROUND

To reduce the coronavirus disease burden in England, along with many other countries, the government implemented a package of non-pharmaceutical interventions (NPIs) that have also impacted other transmissible infectious diseases such as norovirus. It is unclear what future norovirus disease incidence is likely to look like upon lifting these restrictions.

METHODS

Here we use a mathematical model of norovirus fitted to community incidence data in England to project forward expected incidence based on contact surveys that have been collected throughout 2020-2021.

RESULTS

We report that susceptibility to norovirus infection has likely increased between March 2020 and mid-2021. Depending upon assumptions of future contact patterns incidence of norovirus that is similar to pre-pandemic levels or an increase beyond what has been previously reported is likely to occur once restrictions are lifted. Should adult contact patterns return to 80% of pre-pandemic levels, the incidence of norovirus will be similar to previous years. If contact patterns return to pre-pandemic levels, there is a potential for the expected annual incidence to be up to 2-fold larger than in a typical year. The age-specific incidence is similar across all ages.

CONCLUSIONS

Continued national surveillance for endemic diseases such as norovirus will be essential after NPIs are lifted to allow healthcare services to adequately prepare for a potential increase in cases and hospital pressures beyond what is typically experienced.

Predicted Norovirus Resurgence in 2021-2022 Due to the Relaxation of Nonpharmaceutical Interventions Associated with COVID-19 Restrictions in England: A Mathematical Modelling Study

BACKGROUND

To reduce the coronavirus disease burden in England, along with many other countries, the Government implemented a package of non-pharmaceutical interventions (NPIs) that have also impacted other transmissible infectious diseases such as norovirus. It is unclear what future norovirus disease incidence is likely to look like upon lifting these restrictions.

METHODS

Here we use a mathematical model of norovirus fitted to community incidence data in England to project forward expected incidence based on contact surveys that have been collected throughout 2020-2021.

RESULTS

We report that susceptibility to norovirus infection has likely increased between March 2020 to mid-2021. Depending upon assumptions of future contact patterns incidence of norovirus that is similar to pre-pandemic levels or an increase beyond what has been previously reported is likely to occur once restrictions are lifted. Should adult contact patterns return to 80% of pre-pandemic levels the incidence of norovirus will be similar to previous years. If contact patterns return to pre-pandemic levels there is a potential for the expected annual incidence to be up to 2-fold larger than in a typical year. The age-specific incidence is similar across all ages.

CONCLUSIONS

Continued national surveillance for endemic diseases such as norovirus will be essential after NPIs are lifted to allow healthcare services to adequately prepare for a potential increase in cases and hospital pressures beyond what is typically experienced.

Understanding norovirus reporting patterns in England: a mixed model approach

BACKGROUND

Norovirus has a higher level of under-reporting in England compared to other intestinal infectious agents such as Campylobacter or Salmonella, despite being recognised as the most common cause of gastroenteritis globally. In England, this under-reporting is a consequence of the frequently mild/self-limiting nature of the disease, combined with the passive surveillance system for infectious diseases reporting. We investigated heterogeneity in passive surveillance system in order to improve understanding of differences in reporting and laboratory testing practices of norovirus in England.

METHODS

The reporting patterns of norovirus relating to age and geographical region of England were investigated using a multivariate negative binomial model. Multiple model formulations were compared, and the best performing model was determined by proper scoring rules based on one-week-ahead predictions. The reporting patterns are represented by epidemic and endemic random intercepts; values close to one and less than one imply a lower number of reports than expected in the given region and age-group.

RESULTS

The best performing model highlighted atypically large and small amounts of reporting by comparison with the average in England. Endemic random intercept varied from the lowest in East Midlands in those in the under 5 year age-group (0.36, CI 0.18-0.72) to the highest in the same age group in South West (3.00, CI 1.68-5.35) and Yorkshire & the Humber (2.93, CI 1.74-4.94). Reporting by age groups showed the highest variability in young children.

CONCLUSION

We identified substantial variability in reporting patterns of norovirus by age and by region of England. Our findings highlight the importance of considering uncertainty in the design of forecasting tools for norovirus, and to inform the development of more targeted risk management approaches for norovirus disease.

Recent advances in human norovirus research and implications for candidate vaccines

INTRODUCTION

Noroviruses are a leading cause of acute gastroenteritis worldwide. An estimated 21 million illnesses in the United States and upwards of 684 million illnesses worldwide are attributed to norovirus infection. There are no licensed vaccines to prevent norovirus, but several candidates are in development.

AREAS COVERED

We review recent advances in molecular epidemiology of noroviruses, immunology, and in-vitro cultivation of noroviruses using human intestinal enteroids. We also provide an update on the status of norovirus vaccine candidates.

EXPERT OPINION

Molecular epidemiological studies confirm the tremendous genetic diversity of noroviruses, the continuous emergence of new recombinant strains, and the predominance of GII.4 viruses worldwide. Duration of immunity, extent of cross protection between different genotypes, and differences in strain distribution for young children compared with adults remain key knowledge gaps. Recent discoveries regarding which epitopes are targeted by neutralizing antibodies using the novel in vitro culture of human noroviruses in human intestinal enteroids are enhancing our understanding of mechanisms of protection and providing guidance for vaccine development. A future norovirus vaccine has the potential to substantially reduce the burden of illnesses due to this ubiquitous virus.