Essential evidence for guiding health system priorities and policies: anticipating epidemiological transition in Africa

Breast cancer morbidity and mortality in rural Ethiopia: data from 788 verbal autopsies

INTRODUCTION

In Ethiopia, breast cancer is the leading cause of cancer among women. Little is known about the duration of disease and symptoms of patients who died from breast cancer in rural Ethiopia. The objective of this study was to assess breast cancer mortality with a particular focus on the self-reported duration of illness including suffering of symptoms, and need for medical care.

METHODS

The cause of death was determined among randomly selected Ethiopian women residing in western Ethiopia. A modified standard verbal autopsy (VA) questionnaire was completed by women whose sisters had died. The questionnaires were reviewed by two independent local physicians to assign a cause of death. We analyzed pattern of cause of deaths, duration of suffering, symptoms, and treatment received.

RESULT

In our study, the age at death was very similar to other population-based data from Ethiopia. We found 32% of 788 deaths were caused by communicable diseases, 12.1% by neoplasms, and 9.4% by pregnancy/maternal mortality. Breast cancer was the second leading neoplasm, responsible for 21 (2.7%) of all deaths (95% CI 1.5-3.7%), and was among the top five causes of non-communicable deaths. The median age of breast cancer death was 37 years, younger than for other causes of death. The median duration of illness with breast cancer was around 1 year. This was substantially more compared to the duration of infectious diseases, but less than the duration of reproductive neoplasms, diabetes, and epilepsy.

DISCUSSION/CONCLUSION

Breast cancer deaths are common causes of death in women of rural Ethiopia. When assessing the total duration of illness according to specific causes of death, breast and other cancers accounted for a large share of the burden. This has practical implications and highlights the need for palliative care for cancer patients. Substantial efforts are necessary to improve early detection and treatment for breast cancer to reduce premature death in women.

Feasibility, acceptability and validation of wearable devices for climate change and health research in the low-resource contexts of Burkina Faso and Kenya: Study protocol

As the epidemiological transition progresses throughout sub-Saharan Africa, life lived with diseases is an increasingly important part of a population's burden of disease. The burden of disease of climate-sensitive health outcomes is projected to increase considerably within the next decades. Objectively measured, reliable population health data is still limited and is primarily based on perceived illness from recall. Technological advances like non-invasive, consumer-grade wearable devices may play a vital role in alleviating this data gap and in obtaining insights on the disease burden in vulnerable populations, such as heat stress on human cardiovascular response. The overall goal of this study is to investigate whether consumer-grade wearable devices are an acceptable, feasible and valid means to generate data on the individual level in low-resource contexts. Three hundred individuals are recruited from the two study locations in the Nouna health and demographic surveillance system (HDSS), Burkina Faso, and the Siaya HDSS, Kenya. Participants complete a structured questionnaire that comprises question items on acceptability and feasibility under the supervision of trained data collectors. Validity will be evaluated by comparing consumer-grade wearable devices to research-grade devices. Furthermore, we will collect demographic data as well as the data generated by wearable devices. This study will provide insights into the usage of consumer-grade wearable devices to measure individual vital signs in low-resource contexts, such as Burkina Faso and Kenya. Vital signs comprising activity (steps), sleep (duration, quality) and heart rate (hr) are important measures to gain insights on individual behavior and activity patterns in low-resource contexts. These vital signs may be associated with weather variables-as we gather them from weather stations that we have setup as part of this study to cover the whole Nouna and Siaya HDSSs-in order to explore changes in behavior and other variables, such as activity, sleep, hr, during extreme weather events like heat stress exposure. Furthermore, wearable data could be linked to health outcomes and weather events. As a result, consumer-grade wearables may serve as a supporting technology for generating reliable measurements in low-resource contexts and investigating key links between weather occurrences and health outcomes. Thus, wearable devices may provide insights to better inform mitigation and adaptation interventions in these low-resource settings that are direly faced by climate change-induced changes, such as extreme weather events.

A network analysis of patient referrals in two district health systems in Tanzania

Patient referral systems are fragile and overlooked components of the health system in Tanzania. Our study aims at exploring patient referral networks in two rural districts in Tanzania, Kilolo and Msalala. Firstly, we ask whether secondary-level facilities act as gatekeepers, mediating referrals from primary- to tertiary-level facilities. Secondly, we explore the facility and network-level determinants of patient referrals focusing on treatment of childhood illnesses and non-communicable diseases. We use data collected across all public health facilities in the districts in 2018. To study gatekeeping, we employ descriptive network analysis tools. To explore the determinants of referrals, we use exponential random graph models. In Kilolo, we find a disproportionate share of patients referred directly to the largest hospital due to geographical proximity. In Msalala, small and specialized secondary-level facilities seem to attract more patients. Overall, the results call for policies to increase referrals to secondary facilities avoiding expensive referrals to hospitals, improving timeliness of care and reducing travel-related financial burden for households.

Adolescent Fertility Is Lower than Expected in Rural Areas: Results from 10 African HDSS

The adolescent birth rate (ABR) is an important indicator of maternal health, adolescent sexual health, and gender equity; it remains high in sub-Saharan Africa. While Demographic and Health Surveys (DHS) are the main source of ABR estimates, Health and Demographic Surveillance Systems (HDSS) also produce ABRs. Studies are lacking, however, to assess the ease of access and accuracy of HDSS ABR measures. In this paper, we use birth and exposure data from 10 HDSS in six African countries to compute local ABRs and compare these rates to DHS regional rates where the HDSS sites are located, standardizing by education and place of residence. In rural HDSS sites, the ABR measure is on average 44 percent lower than the DHS measure, after controlling for education and place of residence. Strong temporary migration of childless young women out of rural areas and different capacities in capturing temporarily absent women in the DHS and HDSS could explain this discrepancy. Further comparisons based on more strictly similar populations and measures seem warranted.

Sugar-sweetened beverage consumption in the early years and implications for type-2 diabetes: a sub-Saharan Africa context

This review aims to explore trends of early consumption of sugar-sweetened beverages (SSB) in sub-Saharan Africa (SSA), within the context of growing child and adolescent obesity and escalating type-2 diabetes prevalence. We explore efforts to mitigate these, drawing on examples from Africa and elsewhere. SSB, including carbonated drinks and fruit juices, play a contributory role in the development of obesity and associated non-communicable diseases (NCD). SSA is an attractive market for beverage companies owing to its rapid economic growth, growing middle class and youthful populations. SSB already contribute significantly to total sugar and energy consumption in SSA where a plethora of marketing techniques targeted at younger people are utilised to ensure brand recognition and influence purchasing and brand loyalty. Coupled with a general lack of nutrition knowledge or engagement with preventative health, this can lead to frequent consumption of sugary drinks at a young age. Public health efforts in many high income and some middle-income countries address increasing prevalence of obesity and type-2 diabetes by focusing on strategies to encourage reduction in sugar consumption via health policy and public education campaigns. However, similar efforts are not as developed or forthcoming in low-income countries. Health care systems across SSA are ill-prepared to cope with epidemic proportions of NCD, particularly when contextualised with the ongoing battle with infectious diseases. We conclude that greater efforts by governments and the nutrition community to educate the public on the health effects of increased and excessive consumption of SSB are necessary to help address this issue.

Trends of mortality attributable to child and maternal undernutrition, overweight/obesity and dietary risk factors of non-communicable diseases in sub-Saharan Africa, 1990-2015: findings from the Global Burden of Disease Study 2015

OBJECTIVE

To assess trends of mortality attributable to child and maternal undernutrition (CMU), overweight/obesity and dietary risks of non-communicable diseases (NCD) in sub-Saharan Africa (SSA) using data from the Global Burden of Disease (GBD) Study 2015.

DESIGN

For each risk factor, a systematic review of data was used to compute the exposure level and the effect size. A Bayesian hierarchical meta-regression analysis was used to estimate the exposure level of the risk factors by age, sex, geography and year. The burden of all-cause mortality attributable to CMU, fourteen dietary risk factors (eight diets, five nutrients and fibre intake) and overweight/obesity was estimated.

SETTING

Sub-Saharan Africa.ParticipantsAll age groups and both sexes.

RESULTS

In 2015, CMU, overweight/obesity and dietary risks of NCD accounted for 826204 (95 % uncertainty interval (UI) 737346, 923789), 266768 (95 % UI 189051, 353096) and 558578 (95 % UI 453433, 680197) deaths, respectively, representing 10·3 % (95 % UI 9·1, 11·6 %), 3·3 % (95 % UI 2·4, 4·4 %) and 7·0 % (95 % UI 5·8, 8·3 %) of all-cause mortality. While the age-standardized proportion of all-cause mortality accounted for by CMU decreased by 55·2 % between 1990 and 2015 in SSA, it increased by 63·3 and 17·2 % for overweight/obesity and dietary risks of NCD, respectively.

CONCLUSIONS

The increasing burden of diet- and obesity-related diseases and the reduction of mortality attributable to CMU indicate that SSA is undergoing a rapid nutritional transition. To tackle the impact in SSA, interventions and international development agendas should also target dietary risks associated with NCD and overweight/obesity.

Effective coverage as a new approach to health system performance assessment: a scoping review

Background

Delivering interventions is the main task of health systems whose accurate measurement is an essential input into tracking performance. Recently, the concept of effective coverage was introduced by World Health Organization to incorporate into health system performance assessment. The aim of present scoping review was mapping the key elements and steps of effective coverage assessment in practical efforts including kinds of interventions, criteria for selecting them and the need, use and quality estimation approaches and strategies of each intervention.

Methods

We conducted a scoping review of health system/program assessments which assessed effective coverage till May 2017. Seven databases were systematically searched with no time and language restriction through applying combined keyword of “effective coverage”.

Results

Eighteen studies contributed findings on monitoring effective coverage of health interventions and they all were included in the review. Only 4 contributed findings on health system and the others were related to specific intervention(s) assessment. The interventions monitored by effective coverage were mainly in child health, prenatal and antenatal care and delivery, and chronic conditions areas. Potential impact on the burden of disease, leading causes of mortality and morbidity, and high occurrence and prevalence rate were among the main intervention selection criteria. Availability of data was the critical prerequisite, especially, in all of the studies applied ex post approach in estimating effective coverage. Estimation based on a norm, self- reporting from surveys and biomarkers were the main strategies and methods of need, utilization and quality measurement, respectively.

Conclusions

More studies are needed to contribute to the ongoing improvement in the development of effective coverage concept and increasing practical efforts, especially through defining prospective approaches and strategies into estimation of composite measures based on the effective coverage framework. Also, further attention needs to be paid to quality measures of effective coverage in a manner that better conceptualizes and measures the connection between coverage rates and interventions’ effectiveness. At the administrative system level, more innovation is needed to develop data systems in order to enhance capacity of routine health service information.

Electronic supplementary material

The online version of this article (10.1186/s12913-018-3692-7) contains supplementary material, which is available to authorized users.

Integrating community-based verbal autopsy into civil registration and vital statistics (CRVS): system-level considerations

Background: Reliable and representative cause of death (COD) statistics are essential to inform public health policy, respond to emerging health needs, and document progress towards Sustainable Development Goals. However, less than one-third of deaths worldwide are assigned a cause. Civil registration and vital statistics (CRVS) systems in low- and lower-middle-income countries are failing to provide timely, complete and accurate vital statistics, and it will still be some time before they can provide physician-certified COD for every death.

Proposals: Verbal autopsy (VA) is a method to ascertain the probable COD and, although imperfect, it is the best alternative in the absence of medical certification. There is extensive experience with VA in research settings but only a few examples of its use on a large scale. Data collection using electronic questionnaires on mobile devices and computer algorithms to analyse responses and estimate probable COD have increased the potential for VA to be routinely applied in CRVS systems. However, a number of CRVS and health system integration issues should be considered in planning, piloting and implementing a system-wide intervention such as VA. These include addressing the multiplicity of stakeholders and sub-systems involved, integration with existing CRVS work processes and information flows, linking VA results to civil registration records, information technology requirements and data quality assurance.

Conclusions: Integrating VA within CRVS systems is not simply a technical undertaking. It will have profound system-wide effects that should be carefully considered when planning for an effective implementation. This paper identifies and discusses the major system-level issues and emerging practices, provides a planning checklist of system-level considerations and proposes an overview for how VA can be integrated into routine CRVS systems.

Validation of verbal autopsy: determination of cause of deaths in Malaysia 2013

Background

Mortality statistics by age, sex and cause are the foundation of basic health data required for health status assessment, epidemiological research and formation of health policy. Close to half the deaths in Malaysia occur outside a health facility, are not attended by medical personnel, and are given a lay opinion as to the cause of death, leading to poor quality of data from vital registration. Verbal autopsy (VA) is a very useful tool in diagnosing broad causes of deaths for events that occur outside health facilities. This article reports the development of the VA methods and our principal finding from a validation study.

Methods

A cross sectional study on nationally representative sample deaths that occurred in Malaysia during 2013 was used. A VA questionnaire suitable for local use was developed. Trained field interviewers visited the family members of the deceased at their homes and conducted face to face interviews with the next of kin. Completed questionnaires were reviewed by trained physicians who assigned multiple and underlying causes. Reference diagnoses for validation were obtained from review of medical records (MR) available for a sample of the overall study deaths.

Results

Corresponding MR diagnosis with matched sample of the VA diagnosis were available in 2172 cases for the validation study. Sensitivity scores were good (>75%) for transport accidents and certain cancers. Moderate sensitivity (50% - 75%) was obtained for ischaemic heart disease (64%) and cerebrovascular disease (72%). The validation sample for deaths due to major causes such as ischaemic heart disease, pneumonia, breast cancer and transport accidents show low cause-specific mortality fraction (CSMF) changes. The scores obtained for the top 10 leading site-specific cancers ranged from average to good.

Conclusion

We can conclude that VA is suitable for implementation for deaths outside the health facilities in Malaysia. This would reduce ill-defined mortality causes in vital registration data, and yield more accurate national mortality statistics.

The Global Epidemiologic Transition: Noncommunicable Diseases and Emerging Health Risk of Allergic Disease in Sub-Saharan Africa

Globally, there has been a shift in the causes of illness and death from infectious diseases to noncommunicable diseases. This changing pattern has been attributed to the effects of an (ongoing) epidemiologic transition. Although researchers have applied epidemiologic transition theory to questions of global health, there have been relatively few studies exploring its relevance especially in the context of emerging allergic disorders in sub-Saharan Africa (SSA). In this article, we address the growing burden of noncommunicable diseases in sub-Saharan Africa through the lens of epidemiologic transition theory. After a brief review of the literature on the evolution of the epidemiologic transition with a particular emphasis on sub-Saharan Africa, we discuss existing frameworks designed to help inform our understanding of changing health trends in the developing world. We subsequently propose a framework that privileges "place" as a key construct informing our understanding. In so doing, we use the example of allergic disease, one of the fastest growing chronic conditions in most parts of the world.

The Evolving Demographic and Health Transition in Four Low- and Middle-Income Countries: Evidence from Four Sites in the INDEPTH Network of Longitudinal Health and Demographic Surveillance Systems

This paper contributes evidence documenting the continued decline in all-cause mortality and changes in the cause of death distribution over time in four developing country populations in Africa and Asia. We present levels and trends in age-specific mortality (all-cause and cause-specific) from four demographic surveillance sites: Agincourt (South Africa), Navrongo (Ghana) in Africa; Filabavi (Vietnam), Matlab (Bangladesh) in Asia. We model mortality using discrete time event history analysis. This study illustrates how data from INDEPTH Network centers can provide a comparative, longitudinal examination of mortality patterns and the epidemiological transition. Health care systems need to be reconfigured to deal simultaneously with continuing challenges of communicable disease and increasing incidence of non-communicable diseases that require long-term care. In populations with endemic HIV, long-term care of HIV patients on ART will add to the chronic care needs of the community.

Naive Bayes classifiers for verbal autopsies: comparison to physician-based classification for 21,000 child and adult deaths

BACKGROUND

Verbal autopsies (VA) are increasingly used in low- and middle-income countries where most causes of death (COD) occur at home without medical attention, and home deaths differ substantially from hospital deaths. Hence, there is no plausible "standard" against which VAs for home deaths may be validated. Previous studies have shown contradictory performance of automated methods compared to physician-based classification of CODs. We sought to compare the performance of the classic naive Bayes classifier (NBC) versus existing automated classifiers, using physician-based classification as the reference.

METHODS

We compared the performance of NBC, an open-source Tariff Method (OTM), and InterVA-4 on three datasets covering about 21,000 child and adult deaths: the ongoing Million Death Study in India, and health and demographic surveillance sites in Agincourt, South Africa and Matlab, Bangladesh. We applied several training and testing splits of the data to quantify the sensitivity and specificity compared to physician coding for individual CODs and to test the cause-specific mortality fractions at the population level.

RESULTS

The NBC achieved comparable sensitivity (median 0.51, range 0.48-0.58) to OTM (median 0.50, range 0.41-0.51), with InterVA-4 having lower sensitivity (median 0.43, range 0.36-0.47) in all three datasets, across all CODs. Consistency of CODs was comparable for NBC and InterVA-4 but lower for OTM. NBC and OTM achieved better performance when using a local rather than a non-local training dataset. At the population level, NBC scored the highest cause-specific mortality fraction accuracy across the datasets (median 0.88, range 0.87-0.93), followed by InterVA-4 (median 0.66, range 0.62-0.73) and OTM (median 0.57, range 0.42-0.58).

CONCLUSIONS

NBC outperforms current similar COD classifiers at the population level. Nevertheless, no current automated classifier adequately replicates physician classification for individual CODs. There is a need for further research on automated classifiers using local training and test data in diverse settings prior to recommending any replacement of physician-based classification of verbal autopsies.

Health information priorities for more effective implementation and monitoring of non-communicable disease programs in low- and middle-income countries: lessons from the Pacific

BACKGROUND

Non-communicable diseases (NCDs) place enormous burdens on individuals and health systems. While there has been significant global progress to guide the development of national NCD monitoring programs, many countries still struggle to adequately establish critical information systems to prioritise NCD control approaches.

DISCUSSION

In this paper, we use the recent experience of the Pacific as a case study to highlight four key lessons about prioritising strategies for health information system development for monitoring NCDs: first, NCD interventions must be chosen strategically, taking into account local disease burden and capacities; second, NCD monitoring efforts must align with those interventions so as to be capable of evaluating progress; third, in order to ensure efficiency and sustainability, NCD monitoring strategies must be integrated into existing health information systems; finally, countries should monitor the implementation of key policies to control food and tobacco industries. Prioritising NCD interventions to suit local needs is critical and should be accompanied by careful consideration of the most appropriate and feasible monitoring strategies to track and evaluate progress.

Prevalence and risk factors for self-reported non-communicable diseases among older Ugandans: a cross-sectional study

Background

There is limited evidence about the prevalence and risk factors for non-communicable diseases (NCDs) among older Ugandans. Therefore, this article is aimed at investigating the prevalence of self-reported NCDs and their associated risk factors using a nationally representative sample.

Design

We conducted a secondary analysis of the 2010 Uganda National Household Survey (UNHS) using a weighted sample of 2,382 older people. Frequency distributions for descriptive statistics and Pearson chi-square tests to identify the association between self-reported NCDs and selected explanatory variables were done. Finally, multivariable complementary log–log regressions to estimate the risk factors for self-reported NCDs among older people in Uganda were done.

Results

About 2 in 10 (23%) older persons reported at least one NCD [including hypertension (16%), diabetes (3%), and heart disease (9%)]. Among all older people, reporting NCDs was higher among those aged 60–69 and 70–79; Muslims; and Pentecostals and Seventh Day Adventists (SDAs). In addition, the likelihood of reporting NCDs was higher among older persons who depended on remittances and earned wages; owned a bicycle; were sick in the last 30 days; were disabled; and were women. Conversely, the odds of reporting NCDs were lower for those who were relatives of household heads and were poor.

Conclusions

In Uganda, self-reported NCDs were associated with advanced age, being a woman, having a disability, ill health in the past 30 days, being rich, depended on remittances and earning wages, being Muslim, Pentecostal and SDAs, and household headship. The Ministry of Health should prevent and manage NCDs by creating awareness in the public and improving the supply of essential drugs for these health conditions. Finally, there is a need for specialised surveillance studies of older people to monitor the trends and patterns of NCDs over time.

Better health intelligence: a new era for civil registration and vital statistics?

The impetus and opportunities for improving birth, death, and cause of death data have never been more propitious. Renewed country commitment to strengthen vital registration systems is clearly evident, supported by nascent regional coalitions of technical and development organisations. The announcement of a major new investment by Bloomberg Philanthropies to strengthen data systems and capacity in selected countries has the potential to catalyse and realise significant improvements in the availability and quality of data for health. This will require technical leadership, strategic intervention choices, strong country partnerships, and efficient delivery and management of multiple technical interventions across participating countries.

The global burden of liver disease: a challenge for methods and for public health

New Global Burden of Disease estimates for liver cirrhosis, published in BMC Medicine, suggest that cirrhosis caused over a million deaths in 2010, with a further million due to liver cancer and acute hepatitis. Cause-specific mortality data were very sparse for some regions, particularly in Africa, with no relevant mortality data for 58/187 countries. Liver disease involves infectious, malignant and chronic aetiologies with overlapping symptoms. Where available mortality data come from verbal autopsies, separating different types of liver disease is challenging. Cirrhosis is a disease of rich and poor alike; key public health risk factors such as alcohol consumption play an important role. Risk-reduction strategies such as controlling the price of alcohol are being widely discussed. Since these estimates used alcohol consumption as a covariate, they cannot be used to explore relationships between alcohol consumption and cirrhosis mortality. There is hope: coming generations of adults will have been vaccinated against hepatitis B, and this is envisaged to reduce the burden of fatal liver disease. But more complete civil registration globally is needed to fully understand the burden of liver disease.Please see related article: http://www.biomedcentral.com/1741-7015/12/145/abstract.

Undertaking cause-specific mortality measurement in an unregistered population: an example from Tigray Region, Ethiopia

BACKGROUND

The lack of adequate documentation of deaths, and particularly their cause, is often noted in African and Asian settings, but practical solutions for addressing the problem are not always clear. Verbal autopsy methods (interviewing witnesses after a death) have developed rapidly, but there remains a lack of clarity as to how these methods can be effectively applied to large unregistered populations. This paper sets out practical details for undertaking a representative survey of cause-specific mortality in a population of several million, taking Tigray Region in Ethiopia as a prototype.

SAMPLING

Sampling was designed around an expected level of maternal mortality ratio of 400 per 100,000 live births, which needed measuring within a 95% confidence interval of approximately ±100. Taking a stratified cluster sample within the region at the district level for logistic reasons, and allowing for a design effect of 2, this required a population of around 900,000 people, equating to six typical districts. Since the region is administered in six geographic zones, one district per zone was randomly selected.

IMPLEMENTATION

The survey was implemented as a two-stage process: first, to trace deaths that occurred in the sampled districts within the preceding year, and second to follow them up with verbal autopsy interviews. The field work for both stages was undertaken by health extension workers, working in their normally assigned areas. Most of the work was associated with tracing the deaths, rather than undertaking the verbal autopsy interviews.

DISCUSSION

This approach to measuring cause-specific mortality in an unregistered Ethiopian population proved to be feasible and effective. Although it falls short of the ideal situation of continuous civil registration and vital statistics, a survey-based strategy of this kind may prove to be a useful intermediate step on the road towards full civil registration and vital statistics implementation.