What can local and geographic population limits tell us about distributions?

Plant Species' Capacity for Range Shifts at the Habitat and Geographic Scales: A Trade-Off-Based Framework

Climate change is causing rapid shifts in the abiotic and biotic environmental conditions experienced by plant populations, but we lack generalizable frameworks for predicting the consequences for species. These changes may cause individuals to become poorly matched to their environments, potentially inducing shifts in the distributions of populations and altering species' habitat and geographic ranges. We present a trade-off-based framework for understanding and predicting whether plant species may undergo range shifts, based on ecological strategies defined by functional trait variation. We define a species' capacity for undergoing range shifts as the product of its colonization ability and the ability to express a phenotype well-suited to the environment across life stages (phenotype-environment matching), which are both strongly influenced by a species' ecological strategy and unavoidable trade-offs in function. While numerous strategies may be successful in an environment, severe phenotype-environment mismatches result in habitat filtering: propagules reach a site but cannot establish there. Operating within individuals and populations, these processes will affect species' habitat ranges at small scales, and aggregated across populations, will determine whether species track climatic changes and undergo geographic range shifts. This trade-off-based framework can provide a conceptual basis for species distribution models that are generalizable across plant species, aiding in the prediction of shifts in plant species' ranges in response to climate change.

The Centre–Periphery Model, a Possible Explanation for the Distribution of Some Pinus spp. in the Sierra Madre Occidental, Mexico

Genetic diversity is key to survival of species. In evolutionary ecology, the general centre–periphery theory suggests that populations of species located at the margins of their distribution areas display less genetic diversity and greater genetic differentiation than populations from central areas. The aim of this study was to evaluate the genetic diversity and differentiation in six of the main pine species of the Sierra Madre Occidental (northern Mexico). The species considered were Pinus arizonica, P. cembroides, P. durangensis, Pinus engelmannii, P. herrerae and P. leiophylla, which occur at the margins and centre of the geographic distribution. We sampled needles from 2799 individuals belonging to 80 populations of the six species. We analysed amplified fragment length polymorphisms (AFLPs) to estimate diversity and rarity indexes, applied Principal Coordinate Analysis (PCoA), and used the Kruskal–Wallis test to detect genetic differences. Finally, we calculated Spearman’s correlation for association between variables. The general centre–periphery model only explained the traits in P. herrerae. The elevation gradient was an important factor that influenced genetic diversity. However, for elevation as partitioning criterion, most populations showed a central distribution. This information may be useful for establishing seed collections of priority individuals for maintenance in germplasm banks and their subsequent sustainable use.

Rules of Plant Species Ranges: Applications for Conservation Strategies

Earth is changing rapidly and so are many plant species’ ranges. Here, we synthesize eco-evolutionary patterns found in plant range studies and how knowledge of species ranges can inform our understanding of species conservation in the face of global change. We discuss whether general biogeographic “rules” are reliable and how they can be used to develop adaptive conservation strategies of native plant species across their ranges. Rules considered include (1) factors that set species range limits and promote range shifts; (2) the impact of biotic interactions on species range limits; (3) patterns of abundance and adaptive properties across species ranges; (4) patterns of gene flow and their implications for genetic rescue, and (5) the relationship between range size and conservation risk. We conclude by summarizing and evaluating potential species range rules to inform future conservation and management decisions. We also outline areas of research to better understand the adaptive capacity of plants under environmental change and the properties that govern species ranges. We advise conservationists to extend their work to specifically consider peripheral and novel populations, with a particular emphasis on small ranges. Finally, we call for a global effort to identify, synthesize, and analyze prevailing patterns or rules in ecology to help speed conservation efforts.

Range edges in heterogeneous landscapes: Integrating geographic scale and climate complexity into range dynamics

The impacts of climate change have re-energized interest in understanding the role of climate in setting species geographic range edges. Despite the strong focus on species' distributions in ecology and evolution, defining a species range edge is theoretically and empirically difficult. The challenge of determining a range edge and its relationship to climate is in part driven by the nested nature of geography and the multidimensionality of climate, which together generate complex patterns of both climate and biotic distributions across landscapes. Because range-limiting processes occur in both geographic and climate space, the relationship between these two spaces plays a critical role in setting range limits. With both conceptual and empirical support, we argue that three factors-climate heterogeneity, collinearity among climate variables, and spatial scale-interact to shape the spatial structure of range edges along climate gradients, and we discuss several ways that these factors influence the stability of species range edges with a changing climate. We demonstrate that geographic and climate edges are often not concordant across species ranges. Furthermore, high climate heterogeneity and low climate collinearity across landscapes increase the spectrum of possible relationships between geographic and climatic space, suggesting that geographic range edges and climatic niche limits correspond less frequently than we may expect. More empirical explorations of how the complexity of real landscapes shapes the ecological and evolutionary processes that determine species range edges will advance the development of range limit theory and its applications to biodiversity conservation in the context of changing climate.

Evidence for adaptive responses to historic drought across a native plant species range

As climatic conditions change, species will be forced to move or adapt to avoid extinction. Exacerbated by ongoing climate change, California recently experienced a severe and exceptional drought from 2011 to 2017. To investigate whether an adaptive response occurred during this event, we conducted a "resurrection" study of the cutleaf monkeyflower (Mimulus laciniatus), an annual plant, by comparing trait means and variances of ancestral seed collections ("pre-drought") with contemporary descendant collections ("drought"). Plants were grown under common conditions to test whether this geographically restricted species has the capacity to respond evolutionarily to climate stress across its range. We examined if traits shifted in response to the recent, severe drought and included populations across an elevation gradient, including populations at the low- and high-elevation edges of the species range. We found that time to seedling emergence in the drought generation was significantly earlier than in the pre-drought generation, a response consistent with drought adaptation. Additionally, trait variation in days to emergence was reduced in the drought generation, which suggests selection or bottleneck events. Days to first flower increased significantly by elevation, consistent with climate adaptation across the species range. Drought generation plants were larger and had greater reproduction, which was likely a carryover effect of earlier germination. These results demonstrate that rapid shifts in trait means and variances consistent with climate adaptation are occurring within populations, including peripheral populations at warm and cold climate limits, of a plant species with a relatively restricted range that has so far not shifted its elevation distribution during contemporary climate change. Thus, rapid evolution may mitigate, at least temporarily, range shifts under global climate change. This study highlights the need for better understanding rapid adaptation as a means for plant communities to cope with extraordinary climate events.

Incorporating local adaptation into forecasts of species' distribution and abundance under climate change

Populations of many species are genetically adapted to local historical climate conditions. Yet most forecasts of species' distributions under climate change have ignored local adaptation (LA), which may paint a false picture of how species will respond across their geographic ranges. We review recent studies that have incorporated intraspecific variation, a potential proxy for LA, into distribution forecasts, assess their strengths and weaknesses, and make recommendations for how to improve forecasts in the face of LA. The three methods used so far (species distribution models, response functions, and mechanistic models) reflect a trade-off between data availability and the ability to rigorously demonstrate LA to climate. We identify key considerations for incorporating LA into distribution forecasts that are currently missing from many published studies, including testing the spatial scale and pattern of LA, the confounding effects of LA to nonclimatic or biotic drivers, and the need to incorporate empirically based dispersal or gene flow processes. We suggest approaches to better evaluate these aspects of LA and their effects on species-level forecasts. In particular, we highlight demographic and dynamic evolutionary models as promising approaches to better integrate LA into forecasts, and emphasize the importance of independent model validation. Finally, we urge closer examination of how LA will alter the responses of central vs. marginal populations to allow stronger generalizations about changes in distribution and abundance in the face of LA.

Is local trait variation related to total range size of tropical trees?

The reasons why the range size of closely related species often varies significantly have intrigued scientists for many years. Among other hypotheses, species with high trait variation were suggested to occupy more diverse environments, have more continuity in their distributions, and consequently have larger range sizes. Here, using 34 tree species of lowlands tropical rainforest in southern Costa Rica, we explored whether inherent trait variability expressed at the local scale in functional traits is related to the species’ total geographical range size. We formed 17 congeneric pairs of one narrow endemic and one widespread species, sampled 335 individuals and measured eight functional traits: leaf area, leaf thickness, leaf dry matter content, specific leaf area, leaf nitrogen content, leaf phosphorus content, leaf nitrogen to phosphorus ratio, and wood specific gravity. We tested whether there are significant differences in the locally expressed variation of individual traits or in multidimensional trait variance between the species in congeneric pairs and whether species’ range size could hence be predicted from local trait variability. However, we could not find such differences between widely distributed and narrow range species. We discuss the possible reasons for these findings including the fact that higher trait variability of widespread species may result from successive local adaptations during range expansion and may hence often be an effect rather than the cause of larger ranges.

Trait differences in responses to arbuscular mycorrhizal fungi are stronger and more consistent than fixed differences among populations of Asclepias speciosa

PREMISE OF THE STUDY

Arbuscular mycorrhizal (AM) fungi can promote plant growth and reproduction, but other plant physiological traits or traits that provide defense against herbivores can also be affected by AM fungi. However, whether responses of different traits to AM fungi are correlated and whether these relationships vary among plants from different populations are unresolved.

METHODS

In a common garden experiment, we grew Asclepias speciosa plants from seed collected from populations found along an environmental gradient with and without AM fungi to assess whether the responses of six growth and defense traits to AM fungi are correlated.

KEY RESULTS

Although there was strong genetic differentiation in mean trait values among populations, AM fungi consistently increased expression of most growth and defense traits across all populations. Responses of biomass and root to shoot ratio to AM fungi were positively correlated, suggesting that plants that are more responsive to AM fungi allocated more biomass belowground. Responses of biomass and trichome density to AM fungi were negatively correlated, indicating a trade-off in responsiveness between a growth and defensive trait.

CONCLUSIONS

Our results suggest that while there is substantial population differentiation in many traits of A. speciosa, populations respond similarly to AM fungi, and both positive and negative correlations among trait responses occur.

Common garden test of range limits as predicted by a species distribution model in the annual plant Mimulus bicolor

PREMISE OF THE STUDY

Direct tests of a species distribution model (SDM) were used to evaluate the hypothesis that the northern and southern edges of Mimulus bicolor's geographical range are limited by temperature and precipitation.

METHODS

Climatic suitability was predicted using an SDM informed only by temperature and precipitation variables. These predictions were tested by growing plants in growth chambers with temperature and watering treatments informed by weather stations characteristic of environments at the geographic center, edges, and outside the range. An Aster analysis was used to assess whether treatments significantly affected lifetime flower production and to test for local adaptation. The relationship between climatic suitability and lifetime flower number in the growth chambers was also evaluated.

KEY RESULTS

The temperature and watering treatments significantly affected lifetime flower number, although local adaptation was not detected. Flower production was significantly lower under the two edge treatments compared to the central treatment. While no flowers were produced under the beyond-south treatments, flower production was greatest under the beyond-north treatment. These results suggest a hard abiotic limit at the southern edge, and suitable temperature and precipitation conditions beyond the northern edge. While predicted climatic suitability was significantly lower at the range edges, there was no correlation between the climatic suitability of the weather stations' locations and flower production.

CONCLUSIONS

These results suggest that temperature and precipitation play a significant role in defining the distribution of M. bicolor, but also indicate that dispersal limitation or metapopulation dynamics are likely important factors restricting access to habitable sites beyond the northern range limit.

Population-level genetic variation and climate change in a biodiversity hotspot

INTRODUCTION

Estimated future climate scenarios can be used to predict where hotspots of endemism may occur over the next century, but life history, ecological and genetic traits will be important in informing the varying responses within myriad taxa. Essential to predicting the consequences of climate change to individual species will be an understanding of the factors that drive genetic structure within and among populations. Here, I review the factors that influence the genetic structure of plant species in California, but are applicable elsewhere; existing levels of genetic variation, life history and ecological characteristics will affect the ability of an individual taxon to persist in the presence of anthropogenic change.

FACTORS INFLUENCING THE DISTRIBUTION OF GENETIC VARIATION

Persistence in the face of climate change is likely determined by life history characteristics: dispersal ability, generation time, reproductive ability, degree of habitat specialization, plant-insect interactions, existing genetic diversity and availability of habitat or migration corridors. Existing levels of genetic diversity in plant populations vary based on a number of evolutionary scenarios that include endemism, expansion since the last glacial maximum, breeding system and current range sizes.

REGIONAL PRIORITIES AND EXAMPLES

A number of well-documented examples are provided from the California Floristic Province. Some predictions can be made for the responses of plant taxa to rapid environmental changes based on geographic position, evolutionary history, existing genetic variation, and ecological amplitude.

CONCLUSIONS, SOLUTIONS AND RECOMMENDATIONS

The prediction of how species will respond to climate change will require a synthesis drawing from population genetics, geography, palaeontology and ecology. The important integration of the historical factors that have shaped the distribution and existing genetic structure of California's plant taxa will enable us to predict and prioritize the conservation of species and areas most likely to be impacted by rapid climate change, human disturbance and invasive species.

Evolutionary insights from studies of geographic variation: Contemporary variation and looking to the future

In an age of rapid global change, it is imperative that we continue to improve our understanding of factors that govern genetic differentiation in plants to inform biologically reasonable predictions for the future and enlighten conservation and restoration practices. In this special issue, we have assembled a set of original research and reviews that employ diverse approaches, both classic and contemporary, to illuminate patterns of phenotypic and genetic variation, probe the underlying evolutionary processes that have contributed to these patterns, build predictive models, and test evolutionary hypotheses. Our goal was to underscore the unique insights that can be obtained through the complementary and distinct studies of plant populations across species' geographic ranges.