Risk calculators for hepatocellular carcinoma in patients affected with chronic hepatitis B in Asia

Epidemiology of Virus Infection and Human Cancer

Seven viruses including the Epstein-Barr virus (EBV), hepatitis B virus (HBV), hepatitis C virus (HCV), Kaposi's sarcoma herpes virus (KSHV), human immunodeficiency virus, type-1 (HIV-1), human T cell lymphotrophic virus, type-1 (HTLV-1), and human papillomavirus (HPV) have been classified as Group 1 human carcinogens by the International Agency for Research on Cancer (IARC). The conclusions are based on the findings of epidemiological and mechanistic studies. EBV, HPV, HTLV-1, and KSHV are direct carcinogens; HBV and HCV are indirect carcinogens through chronic inflammation; and HIV-1 is an indirect carcinogen through immune suppression. Some viruses may cause more than one cancer, while some cancers may be caused by more than one virus. However, only a proportion of persons infected by these oncogenic viruses will develop specific cancers. A series of studies have been carried out to assess the viral, host, and environmental cofactors of EBV-associated nasopharyngeal carcinoma, HBV/HCV-associated hepatocellular carcinoma, and HPV-associated cervical carcinoma. Persistent infection, high viral load, and viral genotype are important risk predictors of these virus-caused cancers. Risk calculators incorporating host and viral risk predictors have been developed for the prediction of long-term risk of hepatocellular carcinoma, nasopharyngeal carcinoma and cervical cancer. These risk calculators are useful for the triage and clinical management of infected patients. Both clinical trials and national programs of immunization, antiviral therapy and screening have demonstrated a significant reduction in the incidence of cancers caused by HBV, HCV, and HPV. Future research on gene-gene and gene-environment interactions of oncogenic viruses and the human host using large-scale longitudinal studies with serial measurements of biosignatures are in urgent need.

Chronic hepatitis B in remote, tropical Australia; successes and challenges

INTRODUCTION

Aboriginal and Torres Strait Islander Australians living in remote locations suffer disproportionately from chronic hepatitis B (CHB). Defining the temporospatial epidemiology of the disease-and assessing the ability of local clinicians to deliver optimal care-is crucial to improving patient outcomes in these settings.

METHODS

The demographic, laboratory and radiology findings in all patients diagnosed with CHB after 1990, and presently residing in remote Far North Queensland (FNQ), tropical Australia, were correlated with their management and clinical course.

RESULTS

Of the 602 patients, 514 (85%) identified as Aboriginal and Torres Strait Islander Australians, 417 (69%) of whom had Torres Strait Islander heritage. Among the 514 Aboriginal and Torres Strait Islander Australians, there were only 61 (12%) born after universal postnatal vaccination was introduced in 1985. Community CHB prevalence varied significantly across the region from 7/1707 (0.4%) in western Cape York to 55/806 (6.8%) in the Eastern Torres Strait Islands. Although 240/602 (40%) are engaged in care, with 65 (27%) meeting criteria for antiviral therapy, only 43 (66%) were receiving this treatment. Among 537 with complete data, 32 (6%) were cirrhotic, of whom 15 (47%) were engaged in care and 10 (33%) were receiving antiviral therapy. Only 64/251 (26%) in whom national guidelines would recommend hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) surveillance are receiving screening, however, only 20 patients have been diagnosed with HCC since 1999.

CONCLUSION

Vaccination has had a dramatic effect on CHB prevalence in FNQ in only a generation. However, although engagement in care is the highest in Australia, this is not translating into initiation of antiviral therapy in all those that should be receiving it, increasing their risk of developing cirrhosis and HCC. New strategies are necessary to improve the care of Indigenous Australians living with CHB to reduce the morbidity and mortality of this preventable disease.

IL-18 and IL-1β Gene Polymorphisms: The Plausible Risk Factors for Chronic Hepatitis B

Chronic inflammation is the main risk factor for induction of liver cirrhosis and also hepatocellular carcinoma in chronic hepatitis B (CHB) patients. Although our knowledge is growing regarding molecular mechanisms of immune responses against viruses, the main mechanisms that lead to the progression of chronic inflammation and then CHB are yet to be clarified. IL-18 and IL-1β are the members of the IL-1 family and produced in the cytoplasm of a wide range of immune and nonimmune cells and activated by inflammasome pathways. The cytokines play key roles in the pathologies of CHB. IL-18 and IL-1β productions are altered in CHB patients. It has been hypothesized that the polymorphisms within IL-18 and IL-1β genes may be the main reasons for the induction of chronic inflammation in CHB patients. This review article discusses the related investigations regarding the main correlation between the polymorphisms within IL-18 and IL-1β genes and CHB pathogenesis.

Using a chronic hepatitis B Registry to support population-level liver cancer prevention in Sydney, Australia

Background

Approximately 1% of Australians have chronic hepatitis B (CHB), which disproportionately affects people born in hepatitis B-endemic countries. Currently, approximately half of the people affected remain undiagnosed and antiviral treatment uptake is suboptimal (~5%). This increases the likelihood of developing end-stage disease complications, particularly hepatocellular cancer (HCC), and largely accounts for the significant increases in HCC incidence and mortality in Australia over the last decades. As our previous economic modeling suggested that CHB screening and treatment is cost-effective, we tested the feasibility of a primary care-based model of CHB diagnosis and management to prevent HCC.

Materials and methods

From 2009 to 2016, the B Positive program trialed a CHB screening and management program in an area of high disease prevalence in Sydney, Australia. Trained local primary care providers (general practitioners) screened and managed their CHB patients using a purpose-built CHB Registry and a risk stratification algorithm, which allocated patients to ongoing primary care-based management or specialist referral.

Results

The program enrolled and followed up >1,500 people (25% of the target population). Their median age was 48 years, with most participants being born in China (50%) or Vietnam (32%). The risk stratification algorithm allocated most Registry participants (n=847 or 79%) to primary care-based management, reducing unnecessary specialist referrals. The level of antiviral treatment uptake in Registry patients was 18%, which was the optimal level in this population group.

Conclusion

This pilot program demonstrated that primary care-based hepatitis B diagnosis and management is acceptable to patients and their care providers and significantly increases compliance with treatment guidelines. This would suggest that scaling up access to hepatitis B treatment is achievable and can provide a means to operationalize a population-level approach to CHB management and liver cancer prevention.

Review article: hepatitis B core-related antigen (HBcrAg): an emerging marker for chronic hepatitis B virus infection

BACKGROUND

Chronic hepatitis B (CHB) cannot be completely eradicated due to the presence of covalently closed circular DNA (cccDNA) in the nuclei of infected hepatocytes. While quantification of intrahepatic cccDNA requires liver biopsies, serological markers can be non-invasive alternatives to reflect intrahepatic viral replicative activity. Recently, hepatitis B core-related antigen (HBcrAg) has been advocated as a novel serum marker for disease monitoring and prognostication of CHB.

AIM

To examine the virological aspect and clinical application of HBcrAg with respect to the natural history and treatment of CHB.

METHODS

We reviewed all papers published in the PubMed journal list and abstracts from major international meetings that included the keyword "HBcrAg" or "hepatitis B core-related antigen" until March 2017. Selected studies were compared and summarised on the basis of existing theories, as well as the authors' experience.

RESULTS

HBcrAg exhibited good correlation with intrahepatic (ih) cccDNA, ih total hepatitis B virus (HBV) DNA, serum HBV DNA and to a lesser extent HBV surface antigen (HBsAg). In situations where serum HBV DNA levels become undetectable or HBsAg loss is achieved, HBcrAg can still be detectable. This marker is helpful in differentiation of HBeAg-negative chronic hepatitis from HBeAg-negative chronic infection, predicting spontaneous or treatment-induced HBeAg seroconversion, sustained response to nucleos(t)ide analogue (NA), risk of HBV reactivation in occult HBV infection under immunosuppressive therapies, and risk of hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) development as well as post-operative HCC recurrence.

CONCLUSIONS

HBcrAg is a potential surrogate marker of cccDNA. It may soon become a useful marker for disease monitoring, predicting treatment response and disease outcome of chronic hepatitis B.

Serum Levels of M2BPGi as Short-Term Predictors of Hepatocellular Carcinoma in Untreated Chronic Hepatitis B Patients

This study examines the role of M2BPGi, a novel seromarker for chronic hepatitis, in predicting hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) among untreated chronic hepatitis B (CHB) patients. In this nested case-control study, 1070 samples were assayed for M2BPGi, including 357 samples from HCC cases, and 713 samples from non-HCC controls, collected at various times throughout follow-up. HCC case samples were stratified according to years prior to diagnosis. Associations between M2BPGi and HCC were examined with multivariate logistic regression. M2BPGi, α-fetoprotein (AFP), and hepatitis B surface antigen (HBsAg) levels were significant independent short-term predictors of HCC, while M2BPGi was insignificant in long-term analyses. Compared to M2BPGi levels <1.0 cut-off index (COI), those with levels ≥2.0 COI had multivariate odds ratios (95% CI) for HCC of 7.40 (2.40-22.78), 6.46 (2.58-16.18), and 2.24 (0.97-5.15), respectively, for prediction of HCC within 1-2, 2-5, and ≥5 years. Higher proportions of individuals had M2BPGi levels ≥2.0 COI in samples closer to HCC diagnosis. Areas under receiver operating characteristic curves for models with M2BPGi, AFP, and HBsAg levels predicting HCC within 1-2, 2-5, and >5 years were 0.84, 0.81, and 0.75. M2BPGi is a strong and independent short-term predictor of HCC in CHB patients.

Risk and predictors of hepatocellular carcinoma for chronic hepatitis B patients with newly developed cirrhosis

BACKGROUND AND AIMS

Most studies on risk predictors of hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) among cirrhotic chronic hepatitis B patients do not confirm the date at cirrhosis diagnosis. We examined HCC risk and predictors in chronic hepatitis B patients with newly diagnosed cirrhosis.

METHODS

4155 HBsAg seropositive participants were followed every 6-12 months with seromarker testing. Cirrhosis was ascertained through abdominal ultrasonography and computerized linkage with national health insurance profiles. Predictors included in Cox proportional hazards models were age, HBeAg serostatus, serum levels of HBsAg, alanine aminotransferase (ALT), alpha-fetoprotein (AFP), and ALDH2 rs671 genotypes.

RESULTS

A total of 301 patients developed cirrhosis, 76 of whom later developed HCC after 2462 person-years, showing an average annual incidence of 3.1%. The 15-year cumulative HCC risk among cirrhotics was 39.8% with a lifetime (30-80 years old) HCC risk of 78.5%. The adjusted HR's (95% CI, P-value) were 14.26 (3.17-64.08, P = 0.0005) for age at cirrhosis diagnosis of ≥60 years (vs 30-39 years), 2.85 (1.49-5.46, P = 0.0015) for HBeAg seropositivity (vs HBeAg seronegativity with HBsAg levels <1000 IU/mL), 0.35 (0.20-0.59, P < 0.0001) for AA/AG genotypes of rs671 (vs GG genotype), 3.68 (1.70-7.99, P = 0.0010) for ALT levels >45 U/L (vs <15 U/L), 3.52 (1.78-6.93, P = 0.0003) for AFP levels >20 ng/mL (vs <10 ng/mL), and 2.64 (1.38-5.07, P = 0.0035) for HBsAg levels ≥1000 IU/mL (vs <1000 IU/mL among HBeAg seronegatives).

CONCLUSIONS

Older age, GG genotype of ALDH2 rs671, HBeAg seropositivity, and elevated serum levels of ALT, AFP, and HBsAg at cirrhosis diagnosis were HCC risk predictors in cirrhotic chronic hepatitis B patients.

The rs2296651 (S267F) variant on NTCP (SLC10A1) is inversely associated with chronic hepatitis B and progression to cirrhosis and hepatocellular carcinoma in patients with chronic hepatitis B

OBJECTIVE

The sodium taurocholate co-transporting polypeptide (NTCP), encoded by SLC10A1, was recently identified as a receptor for HBV. We assessed the association of the p.Ser267Phe variant (rs2296651) with chronic hepatitis B (CHB) serostatus, cirrhosis and hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) in patients with CHB.

DESIGN

The variant was genotyped in 3801 patients with CHB and 3801 matched hepatitis B surface antigen (HBsAg) seronegative individuals. ORs with 95% CIs for the variant's association with CHB, cirrhosis and HCC were estimated using logistic regression.

RESULTS

In patients with CHB, the S267F variant was observed in 515 (18.5%) controls, 40 (17.2%) cirrhosis only cases, 49 (13.2%) non-cirrhotic HCC cases, and 52 (12.7%) cirrhotic-HCC cases. After adjustment for known risk factors, S267F was significantly associated with decreased risk for cirrhosis (OR 0.65 (95% CI 0.49 to 0.86), p=0.002) and HCC (OR 0.55 (95% CI 0.42 to 0.72), p<0.001). This association persisted for non-cirrhotic and cirrhotic-HCC. Compared with patients with HBV DNA levels greater than 10(5) copies/mL who carried the GG genotype, patients who had undetectable HBV DNA and the GA or AA genotypes had a 25-fold decreased risk of developing HCC (OR 0.04 (95% CI 0.02 to 0.11), p<0.001). The AA genotype was also associated with HBsAg seronegativity (OR 0.13 (95% CI 0.05 to 0.34), p<0.001).

CONCLUSIONS

The SLC10A1 (NTCP) S267F variant is independently associated with decreased risk of cirrhosis and HCC, and resistance to CHB infection. Together with serum HBV DNA levels, S267F may help to identify patients with CHB with very low risk of HCC.

Hepatocellular Carcinoma in Chronic Hepatitis B Patients on Third Generation Nucleos(t)ides Analogs: Risk Factors and Performance of a Risk Score

Objective

To investigate hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) incidence, risk factors and the performance of baseline REACH-B risk score in a Portuguese chronic hepatitis B (CHB) population on antiviral therapy.

Methods

Retrospective study of CHB patients who were treated with tenofovir or entecavir for at least 12 months. Multivariate analysis was performed to identify factors associated with HCC. The Kaplan–Meier method was used to estimate the cumulative incidence of HCC at 1, 3 and 5 years on therapy. The performance of the REACH-B score at baseline was assessed.

Results

One hundred and twenty patients initiated nucleos(t)ide analogs (NUC) therapy (age, 47 ± 14 years-old; 83 male; 11% had cirrhosis; 71% tenofovir; 73% HBeAg-negative; 61% treatment-naïve). After a median time under NUC of 39 months, 9 patients (7.5%) developed HCC. The calculated cumulative incidence rates of HCC at 1, 3 and 5 years on therapy were 5.1%, 7.3% and 8.8%, respectively. Independent predictors for HCC occurrence: age and cirrhosis at baseline. Diagnostic accuracy of baseline REACH-B score in predicting HCC development: AUC 0.738, 95%CI: 0.521–0.955. The cutoff value of 8 points had a sensitivity, specificity, positive predictive value and negative predictive value of 75%, 52%, 6% and 98%, respectively in predicting HCC occurrence during therapy.

Conclusions

Older age and cirrhosis at baseline were independent predictors for HCC development. Discriminatory performance of baseline REACH-B score was limited.

Incorporating Serum Level of Hepatitis B Surface Antigen or Omitting Level of Hepatitis B Virus DNA Does not Affect Calculation of Risk for Hepatocellular Carcinoma in Patients Without Cirrhosis

BACKGROUND & AIMS

Tests for hepatitis B virus (HBV) DNA are expensive, and levels of hepatitis B surface antigen (HBsAg) can help determine the risk for hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) in patients with chronic HBV infection. We investigated how adding data to knowing the level of HBsAg or excluding measurement of HBV DNA affected the accuracy of the Risk Estimation for Hepatocellular Carcinoma in Chronic Hepatitis B (REACH-B) scoring system in determining the risk for HCC.

METHODS

We collected data from 3584 patients with chronic HBV infection who were positive for HBsAg, free of cirrhosis, and participated in the community-based Risk Evaluation of Viral Load Elevation and Associated Liver Disease/Cancer (REVEAL)-HBV cohort (208 cases of HCC) from 1991 through 1992; they were followed up until December 31, 2008. Data from this cohort were used to derive our scoring system. We validated our system using data from 2688 HBsAg-seropositive patients (191 cases of HCC) who participated in the hospital-based Elucidation of Risk Factors for Disease Control or Advancement in Taiwanese Hepatitis B Carriers (ERADICATE-B) study at the National Taiwan University Hospital from 1985 through 2000; they were followed up until December 31, 2010. We also validated the system using data from 426 patients with chronic HBV infection who participated in the Chinese University of Hong Kong (CUHK) study (46 cases of HCC) from 1997 through 2000; patients were followed up for a median of 225 weeks. Discrimination and calibration were evaluated using area under the receiver operating characteristic (AUROC) curves and calibration charts.

RESULTS

When data on HBsAg were added to the REACH-B scoring system, it identified patients in the ERADICATE-B study who developed HCC within 3, 5, and 10 years, with AUROC curve values of 0.92 (95% confidence interval [CI], 0.82-1.02), 0.78 (95% CI, 0.70-0.86), and 0.80 (95% CI, 0.76-0.84), respectively. It identified patients in the CUHK study who developed HCC in 3, 5, and 10 years, with AUROC curve values of 0.85 (95% CI, 0.75-0.95), 0.82 (95% CI, 0.70-0.93), and 0.78 (95% CI, 0.70-0.870), respectively. When data on HBV DNA were removed from the REACH-B scoring system, it identified patients in the ERADICATE-B cohort who developed HCC in 3, 5, and 10 years, with AUROC curve values of 0.90 (95% CI, 0.81-1.0), 0.76 (95% CI, 0.68-0.85), and 0.78 (95% CI, 0.73-0.82), respectively. It identified patents in the CUHK cohort who developed HCC in 3, 5, and 10 years, with AUROC curve values of 0.84 (95% CI, 0.79-0.92), 0.81 (95% CI, 0.71-0.91), and 0.79 (95% CI, 0.72-0.87). These modified systems identified patients who developed HCC with similar levels of accuracy as the original REACH-B score (P > .05 in tests of noninferiority).

CONCLUSIONS

Including data on serum level of HBsAg or removing data on level of HBV DNA do not alter the accuracy of the REACH-B scoring system in determining HCC risk in patients with chronic HBV infection without cirrhosis. It might be cost effective to replace the test for HBV DNA with assays to measure HBsAg in determining HCC risk. These modified scoring systems might replace the REACH-B system in specific situations.

Asian-Pacific clinical practice guidelines on the management of hepatitis B: a 2015 update

Worldwide, some 240 million people have chronic hepatitis B virus (HBV), with the highest rates of infection in Africa and Asia. Our understanding of the natural history of HBV infection and the potential for therapy of the resultant disease is continuously improving. New data have become available since the previous APASL guidelines for management of HBV infection were published in 2012. The objective of this manuscript is to update the recommendations for the optimal management of chronic HBV infection. The 2015 guidelines were developed by a panel of Asian experts chosen by the APASL. The clinical practice guidelines are based on evidence from existing publications or, if evidence was unavailable, on the experts' personal experience and opinion after deliberations. Manuscripts and abstracts of important meetings published through January 2015 have been evaluated. This guideline covers the full spectrum of care of patients infected with hepatitis B, including new terminology, natural history, screening, vaccination, counseling, diagnosis, assessment of the stage of liver disease, the indications, timing, choice and duration of single or combination of antiviral drugs, screening for HCC, management in special situations like childhood, pregnancy, coinfections, renal impairment and pre- and post-liver transplant, and policy guidelines. However, areas of uncertainty still exist, and clinicians, patients, and public health authorities must therefore continue to make choices on the basis of the evolving evidence. The final clinical practice guidelines and recommendations are presented here, along with the relevant background information.

What can we learn from hepatitis B virus clinical cohorts?

Chronic hepatitis, cirrhosis and hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) are considered to be sequential adverse outcomes in patients with persistent hepatitis B virus (HBV) infection. HBV infection is endemic in Taiwan and most HBV carriers acquire the virus early in life. The impact of HBV factors on the natural course of patients with chronic HBV infection has been investigated in three cohort studies. The first Risk Evaluation of Viral Load Elevation and Associated Liver Disease/Cancer-Hepatitis B Virus (REVEAL-HBV) cohort study revealed that HBV viral load is a strong predictive factor for the risk of cirrhosis and HCC and baseline serum HBV DNA levels >2000 IU/ml may increase the risk of cirrhosis and HCC in adult HBV carriers. In the second Study of E Antigen seRoClearance of Hepatitis B (SEARCH-B), HBsAg level <100 IU/ml at 1-year post HBeAg seroconversion was shown to be a predictor of HBsAg seroclearance over time. Recently, the third Elucidation of Risk Factors for Disease Control or Advancement in Taiwanese Hepatitis B Carriers (ERADICATE-B) cohort study also suggested that HBsAg levels were a complementary predictive risk factor to HBV DNA levels for predicting HBV-related adverse events in patients with low viral load (HBV DNA level <2000 IU/ml). An HBsAg level >1000 IU/ml in HBeAg-negative patients with low viral load, is associated with higher risks of HCC, cirrhosis, and HBeAg-negative hepatitis. Based on results of the REVEAL-HBV cohort study, a risk calculator to predict HCC in non-cirrhotic patients was developed and validated by independent international cohorts (REACH-B). In the recent update of the REVEAL-HBV study, HBsAg level was incorporated into the HCC risk prediction model with excellent accuracy. In conclusion, evidence from these HBV clinical cohorts confirms the progression and integration of viral biomarkers for the prediction of the prognosis of Asian chronic hepatitis B (CHB) patients. If the predictive power of the HCC risk calculator could be validated in non-Asian populations, it could be used in clinical practice to individualize the management of HBV carriers with different levels of HCC risk.

Viral hepatitis B: clinical and epidemiological characteristics

It is now 50 years since the discovery of the hepatitis B virus (HBV), and, despite the availability of a prophylactic vaccine for more than 20 years, HBV infection remains a disease of significant global health burden. It is estimated that more than 240 million people are chronically infected with HBV and, therefore, are at risk for the development of cirrhosis, hepatic decompensation, and hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC). The risk of clinical complications has traditionally been higher in older males with hepatitis B e antigen (HBeAg)-positive disease, high-grade liver necroinflammation, and progressive fibrosis. Recent advances in the understanding of the natural history of chronic HBV infection have identified an important role for plasma HBV DNA levels as a marker of risk for clinical outcomes. Among adults, persistent high-level HBV replication is associated with an increased risk of cirrhosis, as well as HCC development. This has led to the therapeutic focus on achieving sustained viral suppression. There is an emerging role for quantitative hepatitis B surface antigen (HBsAg) levels as a marker of natural history. Low levels of HBsAg have been associated with sustained immune control, HBsAg seroclearance, as well as lower risk of HCC. In this work, we review the natural history of HBV infection, with a focus on the determinants of clinical outcomes in patients with chronic hepatitis B (CHB) infection.