On the importance of avoiding shortcuts in applying cognitive models to hierarchical data

Assessing the Longitudinal Associations Between Decision-Making Processes and Attention Problems in Early Adolescence

Cognitive functions and psychopathology develop in parallel in childhood and adolescence, but the temporal dynamics of their associations are poorly understood. The present study sought to elucidate the intertwined development of decision-making processes and attention problems using longitudinal data from late childhood (9-10 years) to mid-adolescence (11-13 years) from the Adolescent Brain Cognitive Development (ABCD) Study (n = 8918). We utilised hierarchical drift-diffusion modelling of behavioural data from the stop-signal task, parent-reported attention problems from the Child Behavior Checklist (CBCL), and multigroup univariate and bivariate latent change score models. The results showed faster drift rate was associated with lower levels of inattention at baseline, as well as a greater reduction of inattention over time. Moreover, baseline drift rate negatively predicted change in attention problems in females, and baseline attention problems negatively predicted change in drift rate. Neither response caution (decision threshold) nor encoding- and responding processes (non-decision time) were significantly associated with attention problems. There were no significant sex differences in the associations between decision-making processes and attention problems. The study supports previous findings of reduced evidence accumulation in attention problems and additionally shows that development of this aspect of decision-making plays a role in developmental changes in attention problems in youth.

Does context recollection depend on the base-rate of contextual features?

Episodic recollection is defined by the re-experiencing of contextual and target details of a past event. The base-rate dependency hypothesis assumes that the retrieval of one contextual feature from an integrated episodic trace cues the retrieval of another associated feature, and that the more often a particular configuration of features occurs, the more effective this mutual cueing will be. Alternatively, the conditional probability of one feature given another feature may be neglected in memory for contextual features since they are not directly bound to one another. Three conjoint recognition experiments investigated whether memory for context is sensitive to the base-rates of features. Participants studied frequent versus infrequent configurations of features and, during the test, they were asked to recognise one of these features with (vs. without) another feature reinstated. The results showed that the context recollection parameter, representing the re-experience of contextual features in the dual-recollection model, was higher for frequent than infrequent feature configurations only when the binding of feature information was made easier and the differences in the base-rates were extreme, otherwise no difference was found. Similarly, base-rates of features influenced response guessing only in the condition with salient differences in base-rates. The Bayes factor analyses showed that the evidence from two of our experiments favoured the base-rate neglect hypothesis over the base-rate dependency hypothesis; the opposite result was obtained in the third experiment, but only when high base-rate disproportion and facilitated feature binding conditions were used.

Modelling orthographic similarity effects in recognition memory reveals support for open bigram representations of letter coding

A variety of letter string representations has been proposed in the reading literature to account for empirically established orthographic similarity effects from masked priming studies. However, these similarity effects have not been explored in episodic memory paradigms and very few memory models have employed orthographic representation of words. In the current work, through two recognition memory experiments employing word and pseudoword stimuli respectively, we empirically established a set of key orthographic similarity effects for the first time in recognition memory - namely the substitution effect, transposition effect and reverse effect in recognition memory of words and pseudowords, and a start-letter importance in recognition memory of words. Subsequently, we compared orthographic representations from the reading literature including slot coding, closed-bigram, open-bigram and the overlap model. Each of these representations was situated in a global matching model and fitted to recognition performance via Luce's choice rule in a hierarchical Bayesian framework. Model selection results showed support for the open-bigram representation in both experiments.

Reinforcement learning and working memory in mood disorders: A computational analysis in a developmental transdiagnostic sample

BACKGROUND

Mood disorders commonly onset during adolescence and young adulthood and are conceptually and empirically related to reinforcement learning abnormalities. However, the nature of abnormalities associated with acute symptom severity versus lifetime diagnosis remains unclear, and prior research has often failed to disentangle working memory from reward processes.

METHODS

The present sample (N = 220) included adolescents and young adults with a lifetime history of unipolar disorders (n = 127), bipolar disorders (n = 28), or no history of psychopathology (n = 62), and varying severity of mood symptoms. Analyses fitted a reinforcement learning and working memory model to an instrumental learning task that varied working memory load, and tested associations between model parameters and diagnoses or current symptoms.

RESULTS

Current severity of manic or anhedonic symptoms negatively correlated with task performance. Participants reporting higher severity of current anhedonia, or with lifetime unipolar or bipolar disorders, showed lower reward learning rates. Participants reporting higher severity of current manic symptoms showed faster working memory decay and reduced use of working memory.

LIMITATIONS

Computational parameters should be interpreted in the task environment (a deterministic reward learning paradigm), and developmental population. Future work should test replication in other paradigms and populations.

CONCLUSIONS

Results indicate abnormalities in reinforcement learning processes that either scale with current symptom severity, or correspond with lifetime mood diagnoses. Findings may have implications for understanding reward processing anomalies related to state-like (current symptom) or trait-like (lifetime diagnosis) aspects of mood disorders.

Integrating word-form representations with global similarity computation in recognition memory

In recognition memory, retrieval is thought to occur by computing the global similarity of the probe to each of the studied items. However, to date, very few global similarity models have employed perceptual representations of words despite the fact that false recognition errors for perceptually similar words have consistently been observed. In this work, we integrate representations of letter strings from the reading literature with global similarity models. Specifically, we employed models of absolute letter position (slot codes and overlap models) and relative letter position (closed and open bigrams). Each of the representations was used to construct a global similarity model that made contact with responses and RTs at the individual word level using the linear ballistic accumulator (LBA) model (Brown & Heathcote Cognitive Psychology, 57 , 153-178, 2008). Relative position models were favored in three of the four datasets and parameter estimates suggested additional influence of the initial letters in the words. When semantic representations from the word2vec model were incorporated into the models, results indicated that orthographic representations were almost equally consequential as semantic representations in determining inter-item similarity and false recognition errors, which undermines previous suggestions that long-term memory is primarily driven by semantic representations. The model was able to modestly capture individual word variability in the false alarm rates, but there were limitations in capturing variability in the hit rates that suggest that the underlying representations require extension.

Reliability of gamified reinforcement learning in densely sampled longitudinal assessments

Reinforcement learning is a core facet of motivation and alterations have been associated with various mental disorders. To build better models of individual learning, repeated measurement of value-based decision-making is crucial. However, the focus on lab-based assessment of reward learning has limited the number of measurements and the test-retest reliability of many decision-related parameters is therefore unknown. In this paper, we present an open-source cross-platform application Influenca that provides a novel reward learning task complemented by ecological momentary assessment (EMA) of current mental and physiological states for repeated assessment over weeks. In this task, players have to identify the most effective medication by integrating reward values with changing probabilities to win (according to random Gaussian walks). Participants can complete up to 31 runs with 150 trials each. To encourage replay, in-game screens provide feedback on the progress. Using an initial validation sample of 384 players (9729 runs), we found that reinforcement learning parameters such as the learning rate and reward sensitivity show poor to fair intra-class correlations (ICC: 0.22-0.53), indicating substantial within- and between-subject variance. Notably, items assessing the psychological state showed comparable ICCs as reinforcement learning parameters. To conclude, our innovative and openly customizable app framework provides a gamified task that optimizes repeated assessments of reward learning to better quantify intra- and inter-individual differences in value-based decision-making over time.

Reinforcement learning establishes a minimal metacognitive process to monitor and control motor learning performance

Humans and animals develop learning-to-learn strategies throughout their lives to accelerate learning. One theory suggests that this is achieved by a metacognitive process of controlling and monitoring learning. Although such learning-to-learn is also observed in motor learning, the metacognitive aspect of learning regulation has not been considered in classical theories of motor learning. Here, we formulated a minimal mechanism of this process as reinforcement learning of motor learning properties, which regulates a policy for memory update in response to sensory prediction error while monitoring its performance. This theory was confirmed in human motor learning experiments, in which the subjective sense of learning-outcome association determined the direction of up- and down-regulation of both learning speed and memory retention. Thus, it provides a simple, unifying account for variations in learning speeds, where the reinforcement learning mechanism monitors and controls the motor learning process.

Attribute attention and option attention in risky choice

Probability weighting is one of the most powerful theoretical constructs in descriptive models of risky choice and constitutes a central component of cumulative prospect theory (CPT). Probability weighting has been shown to be related to two facets of attention allocation: one analysis showed that differences in the shape of CPT's probability-weighting function are linked to differences in how attention is allocated across attributes (i.e., probabilities vs. outcomes); another analysis (that used a different measure of attention) showed a link between probability weighting and differences in how attention is allocated across options. However, the relationship between these two links is unclear. We investigate to what extent attribute attention and option attention independently contribute to probability weighting. Reanalyzing data from a process-tracing study, we first demonstrate links between probability weighting and both attribute attention and option attention within the same data set and the same measure of attention. We then find that attribute attention and option attention are at best weakly related and have independent and distinct effects on probability weighting. Moreover, deviations from linear weighting mainly emerged when attribute attention or option attention were imbalanced. Our analyses enrich the understanding of the cognitive underpinnings of preferences and illustrate that similar probability-weighting patterns can be associated with very different attentional policies. This complicates an unambiguous psychological interpretation of psycho-economic functions. Our findings indicate that cognitive process models of decision making should aim to concurrently account for the effects of different facets of attention allocation on preference. In addition, we argue that the origins of biases in attribute attention and option attention need to be better understood.

Troubleshooting Bayesian cognitive models

Using Bayesian methods to apply computational models of cognitive processes, or Bayesian cognitive modeling, is an important new trend in psychological research. The rise of Bayesian cognitive modeling has been accelerated by the introduction of software that efficiently automates the Markov chain Monte Carlo sampling used for Bayesian model fitting-including the popular Stan and PyMC packages, which automate the dynamic Hamiltonian Monte Carlo and No-U-Turn Sampler (HMC/NUTS) algorithms that we spotlight here. Unfortunately, Bayesian cognitive models can struggle to pass the growing number of diagnostic checks required of Bayesian models. If any failures are left undetected, inferences about cognition based on the model's output may be biased or incorrect. As such, Bayesian cognitive models almost always require troubleshooting before being used for inference. Here, we present a deep treatment of the diagnostic checks and procedures that are critical for effective troubleshooting, but are often left underspecified by tutorial papers. After a conceptual introduction to Bayesian cognitive modeling and HMC/NUTS sampling, we outline the diagnostic metrics, procedures, and plots necessary to detect problems in model output with an emphasis on how these requirements have recently been changed and extended. Throughout, we explain how uncovering the exact nature of the problem is often the key to identifying solutions. We also demonstrate the troubleshooting process for an example hierarchical Bayesian model of reinforcement learning, including supplementary code. With this comprehensive guide to techniques for detecting, identifying, and overcoming problems in fitting Bayesian cognitive models, psychologists across subfields can more confidently build and use Bayesian cognitive models in their research. (PsycInfo Database Record (c) 2023 APA, all rights reserved).

A cognitive process modeling framework for the ABCD study stop-signal task

The Adolescent Brain Cognitive Development (ABCD) Study is a longitudinal neuroimaging study of unprecedented scale that is in the process of following over 11,000 youth from middle childhood though age 20. However, a design feature of the study's stop-signal task violates "context independence", an assumption critical to current non-parametric methods for estimating stop-signal reaction time (SSRT), a key measure of inhibitory ability in the study. This has led some experts to call for the task to be changed and for previously collected data to be used with caution. We present a cognitive process modeling framework, the RDEX-ABCD model, that provides a parsimonious explanation for the impact of this design feature on "go" stimulus processing and successfully accounts for key behavioral trends in the ABCD data. Simulation studies using this model suggest that failing to account for the context independence violations in the ABCD design can lead to erroneous inferences in several realistic scenarios. However, we demonstrate that RDEX-ABCD effectively addresses these violations and can be used to accurately measure SSRT along with an array of additional mechanistic parameters of interest (e.g., attention to the stop signal, cognitive efficiency), advancing investigators' ability to draw valid and nuanced inferences from ABCD data. AVAILABILITY OF DATA AND MATERIALS: Data from the ABCD Study are available through the NIH Data Archive (NDA): nda.nih.gov/abcd. Code for all analyses featured in this study is openly available on the Open Science Framework (OSF): osf.io/2h8a7/.

Self-judgment dissected: A computational modeling analysis of self-referential processing and its relationship to trait mindfulness facets and depression symptoms

Cognitive theories of depression, and mindfulness theories of well-being, converge on the notion that self-judgment plays a critical role in mental health. However, these theories have rarely been tested via tasks and computational modeling analyses that can disentangle the information processes operative in self-judgments. We applied a drift-diffusion computational model to the self-referential encoding task (SRET) collected before and after an 8-week mindfulness intervention (n = 96). A drift-rate regression parameter representing positive-relative to negative-self-referential judgment strength positively related to mindful awareness and inversely related to depression, both at baseline and over time; however, this parameter did not significantly relate to the interaction between mindful awareness and nonjudgmentalness. At the level of individual depression symptoms, at baseline, a spectrum of symptoms (inversely) correlated with the drift-rate regression parameter, suggesting that many distinct depression symptoms relate to valenced self-judgment between subjects. By contrast, over the intervention, changes in only a smaller subset of anhedonia-related depression symptoms showed substantial relationships with this parameter. Both behavioral and model-derived measures showed modest split-half and test-retest correlations. Results support cognitive theories that implicate self-judgment in depression and mindfulness theories, which imply that mindful awareness should lead to more positive self-views.

Behavioural and neural indices of perceptual decision-making in autistic children during visual motion tasks

Many studies report atypical responses to sensory information in autistic individuals, yet it is not clear which stages of processing are affected, with little consideration given to decision-making processes. We combined diffusion modelling with high-density EEG to identify which processing stages differ between 50 autistic and 50 typically developing children aged 6-14 years during two visual motion tasks. Our pre-registered hypotheses were that autistic children would show task-dependent differences in sensory evidence accumulation, alongside a more cautious decision-making style and longer non-decision time across tasks. We tested these hypotheses using hierarchical Bayesian diffusion models with a rigorous blind modelling approach, finding no conclusive evidence for our hypotheses. Using a data-driven method, we identified a response-locked centro-parietal component previously linked to the decision-making process. The build-up in this component did not consistently relate to evidence accumulation in autistic children. This suggests that the relationship between the EEG measure and diffusion-modelling is not straightforward in autistic children. Compared to a related study of children with dyslexia, motion processing differences appear less pronounced in autistic children. Exploratory analyses also suggest weak evidence that ADHD symptoms moderate perceptual decision-making in autistic children.

Reinforcement learning and bayesian inference provide complementary models for the unique advantage of adolescents in stochastic reversal

During adolescence, youth venture out, explore the wider world, and are challenged to learn how to navigate novel and uncertain environments. We investigated how performance changes across adolescent development in a stochastic, volatile reversal-learning task that uniquely taxes the balance of persistence and flexibility. In a sample of 291 participants aged 8–30, we found that in the mid-teen years, adolescents outperformed both younger and older participants. We developed two independent cognitive models, based on Reinforcement learning (RL) and Bayesian inference (BI). The RL parameter for learning from negative outcomes and the BI parameters specifying participants’ mental models were closest to optimal in mid-teen adolescents, suggesting a central role in adolescent cognitive processing. By contrast, persistence and noise parameters improved monotonically with age. We distilled the insights of RL and BI using principal component analysis and found that three shared components interacted to form the adolescent performance peak: adult-like behavioral quality, child-like time scales, and developmentally-unique processing of positive feedback. This research highlights adolescence as a neurodevelopmental window that can create performance advantages in volatile and uncertain environments. It also shows how detailed insights can be gleaned by using cognitive models in new ways.

Neural Encoding of Active Multi-Sensing Enhances Perceptual Decision-Making via a Synergistic Cross-Modal Interaction

Most perceptual decisions rely on the active acquisition of evidence from the environment involving stimulation from multiple senses. However, our understanding of the neural mechanisms underlying this process is limited. Crucially, it remains elusive how different sensory representations interact in the formation of perceptual decisions. To answer these questions, we used an active sensing paradigm coupled with neuroimaging, multivariate analysis, and computational modeling to probe how the human brain processes multisensory information to make perceptual judgments. Participants of both sexes actively sensed to discriminate two texture stimuli using visual (V) or haptic (H) information or the two sensory cues together (VH). Crucially, information acquisition was under the participants' control, who could choose where to sample information from and for how long on each trial. To understand the neural underpinnings of this process, we first characterized where and when active sensory experience (movement patterns) is encoded in human brain activity (EEG) in the three sensory conditions. Then, to offer a neurocomputational account of active multisensory decision formation, we used these neural representations of active sensing to inform a drift diffusion model of decision-making behavior. This revealed a multisensory enhancement of the neural representation of active sensing, which led to faster and more accurate multisensory decisions. We then dissected the interactions between the V, H, and VH representations using a novel information-theoretic methodology. Ultimately, we identified a synergistic neural interaction between the two unisensory (V, H) representations over contralateral somatosensory and motor locations that predicted multisensory (VH) decision-making performance.SIGNIFICANCE STATEMENT In real-world settings, perceptual decisions are made during active behaviors, such as crossing the road on a rainy night, and include information from different senses (e.g., car lights, slippery ground). Critically, it remains largely unknown how sensory evidence is combined and translated into perceptual decisions in such active scenarios. Here we address this knowledge gap. First, we show that the simultaneous exploration of information across senses (multi-sensing) enhances the neural encoding of active sensing movements. Second, the neural representation of active sensing modulates the evidence available for decision; and importantly, multi-sensing yields faster evidence accumulation. Finally, we identify a cross-modal interaction in the human brain that correlates with multisensory performance, constituting a putative neural mechanism for forging active multisensory perception.

Beyond rates: time-varying dynamics of high frequency oscillations as a biomarker of the seizure onset zone

Objective. High frequency oscillations (HFOs) recorded by intracranial electrodes have generated excitement for their potential to help localize epileptic tissue for surgical resection. However, the number of HFOs per minute (i.e. the HFO 'rate') is not stable over the duration of intracranial recordings; for example, the rate of HFOs increases during periods of slow-wave sleep. Moreover, HFOs that are predictive of epileptic tissue may occur in oscillatory patterns due to phase coupling with lower frequencies. Therefore, we sought to further characterize between-seizure (i.e. 'interictal') HFO dynamics both within and outside the seizure onset zone (SOZ).Approach. Using long-term intracranial EEG (mean duration 10.3 h) from 16 patients, we automatically detected HFOs using a new algorithm. We then fit a hierarchical negative binomial model to the HFO counts. To account for differences in HFO dynamics and rates between sleep and wakefulness, we also fit a mixture model to the same data that included the ability to switch between two discrete brain states that were automatically determined during the fitting process. The ability to predict the SOZ by model parameters describing HFO dynamics (i.e. clumping coefficients and coefficients of variation) was assessed using receiver operating characteristic curves.Main results. Parameters that described HFO dynamics were predictive of SOZ. In fact, these parameters were found to be more consistently predictive than HFO rate. Using concurrent scalp EEG in two patients, we show that the model-found brain states corresponded to (1) non-REM sleep and (2) awake and rapid eye movement sleep. However the brain state most likely corresponding to slow-wave sleep in the second model improved SOZ prediction compared to the first model for only some patients.Significance. This work suggests that delineation of SOZ with interictal data can be improved by the inclusion of time-varying HFO dynamics.

Visual Motion and Decision-Making in Dyslexia: Reduced Accumulation of Sensory Evidence and Related Neural Dynamics

Children with and without dyslexia differ in their behavioral responses to visual information, particularly when required to pool dynamic signals over space and time. Importantly, multiple processes contribute to behavioral responses. Here we investigated which processing stages are affected in children with dyslexia when performing visual motion processing tasks, by combining two methods that are sensitive to the dynamic processes leading to responses. We used a diffusion model which decomposes response time and accuracy into distinct cognitive constructs, and high-density EEG. Fifty children with dyslexia (24 male) and 50 typically developing children (28 male) 6-14 years of age judged the direction of motion as quickly and accurately as possible in two global motion tasks (motion coherence and direction integration), which varied in their requirements for noise exclusion. Following our preregistered analyses, we fitted hierarchical Bayesian diffusion models to the data, blinded to group membership. Unblinding revealed reduced evidence accumulation in children with dyslexia compared with typical children for both tasks. Additionally, we identified a response-locked EEG component which was maximal over centro-parietal electrodes which indicated a neural correlate of reduced drift rate in dyslexia in the motion coherence task, thereby linking brain and behavior. We suggest that children with dyslexia tend to be slower to extract sensory evidence from global motion displays, regardless of whether noise exclusion is required, thus furthering our understanding of atypical perceptual decision-making processes in dyslexia.SIGNIFICANCE STATEMENT Reduced sensitivity to visual information has been reported in dyslexia, with a lively debate about whether these differences causally contribute to reading difficulties. In this large preregistered study with a blind modeling approach, we combine state-of-the art methods in both computational modeling and EEG analysis to pinpoint the stages of processing that are atypical in children with dyslexia in two visual motion tasks that vary in their requirement for noise exclusion. We find reduced evidence accumulation in children with dyslexia across both tasks, and identify a neural marker, allowing us to link brain and behavior. We show that children with dyslexia exhibit general difficulties with extracting sensory evidence from global motion displays, not just in tasks that require noise exclusion.

Neurocomputational models of altruistic decision-making and social motives: Advances, pitfalls, and future directions

This article discusses insights from computational models and social neuroscience into motivations, precursors, and mechanisms of altruistic decision-making and other-regard. We introduce theoretical and methodological tools for researchers who wish to adopt a multilevel, computational approach to study behaviors that promote others' welfare. Using examples from recent studies, we outline multiple mental and neural processes relevant to altruism. To this end, we integrate evidence from neuroimaging, psychology, economics, and formalized mathematical models. We introduce basic mechanisms-pertinent to a broad range of value-based decisions-and social emotions and cognitions commonly recruited when our decisions involve other people. Regarding the latter, we discuss how decomposing distinct facets of social processes can advance altruistic models and the development of novel, targeted interventions. We propose that an accelerated synthesis of computational approaches and social neuroscience represents a critical step towards a more comprehensive understanding of altruistic decision-making. We discuss the utility of this approach to study lifespan differences in social preference in late adulthood, a crucial future direction in aging global populations. Finally, we review potential pitfalls and recommendations for researchers interested in applying a computational approach to their research. This article is categorized under: Economics > Interactive Decision-Making Psychology > Emotion and Motivation Neuroscience > Cognition Economics > Individual Decision-Making.

How peer influence shapes value computation in moral decision-making

Moral behavior is susceptible to peer influence. How does information from peers influence moral preferences? We used drift-diffusion modeling to show that peer influence changes the value of moral behavior by prioritizing the choice attributes that align with peers' goals. Study 1 (N = 100; preregistered) showed that participants accurately inferred the goals of prosocial and antisocial peers when observing their moral decisions. In Study 2 (N = 68), participants made moral decisions before and after observing the decisions of a prosocial or antisocial peer. Peer observation caused participants' own preferences to resemble those of their peers. This peer influence effect on value computation manifested as an increased weight on choice attributes promoting the peers' goals that occurred independently from peer influence on initial choice bias. Participants' self-reported awareness of influence tracked more closely with computational measures of prosocial than antisocial influence. Our findings have implications for bolstering and blocking the effects of prosocial and antisocial influence on moral behavior.

Guess what? Different source-guessing strategies for old versus new information

The probability-matching account states that learned specific episodic contingencies of item types and source dominate over general schematic expectations in source guessing. However, recent evidence from Bell et al. [(2020). Source attributions for detected new items: Persistent evidence for schematic guessing. Quarterly Journal of Experimental Psychology, 73(9), 1407-1422] suggest that this only applies to source guessing for information that is recognised as belonging to a previously encoded episode. When information was detected as being new, participants persisted in applying schematic knowledge about the sources' profession. This dissociation in source guessing for detected-old and detected-new information may have been fostered by the specific source-monitoring paradigm by Bell et al. (2020) in which sources were a group of individuals in a certain profession rather than fixed persons from that profession for whom episodic contingencies are more likely to persist also for new information. The aim of the present study was to test whether source guessing for detected-old versus detected-new information also dissociates in a more typical source-monitoring task, the doctor-lawyer paradigm, in which one individual doctor and one lawyer present profession-related information. Despite this change in paradigm, source guessing was based on the item-source contingency only for detected-old information, whereas schematic knowledge persisted for detected-new information. The present study thus adds evidence for persistent schema-based source guessing for new information.

Dissociation between asymmetric value updating and perseverance in human reinforcement learning

The learning rate is a key parameter in reinforcement learning that determines the extent to which novel information (outcome) is incorporated in guiding subsequent actions. Numerous studies have reported that the magnitude of the learning rate in human reinforcement learning is biased depending on the sign of the reward prediction error. However, this asymmetry can be observed as a statistical bias if the fitted model ignores the choice autocorrelation (perseverance), which is independent of the outcomes. Therefore, to investigate the genuine process underlying human choice behavior using empirical data, one should dissociate asymmetry in learning and perseverance from choice behavior. The present study addresses this issue by using a Hybrid model incorporating asymmetric learning rates and perseverance. First, by conducting simulations, we demonstrate that the Hybrid model can identify the true underlying process. Second, using the Hybrid model, we show that empirical data collected from a web-based experiment are governed by perseverance rather than asymmetric learning. Finally, we apply the Hybrid model to two open datasets in which asymmetric learning was reported. As a result, the asymmetric learning rate was validated in one dataset but not another.

Revisiting the importance of model fitting for model-based fMRI: It does matter in computational psychiatry

Computational modeling has been applied for data analysis in psychology, neuroscience, and psychiatry. One of its important uses is to infer the latent variables underlying behavior by which researchers can evaluate corresponding neural, physiological, or behavioral measures. This feature is especially crucial for computational psychiatry, in which altered computational processes underlying mental disorders are of interest. For instance, several studies employing model-based fMRI-a method for identifying brain regions correlated with latent variables-have shown that patients with mental disorders (e.g., depression) exhibit diminished neural responses to reward prediction errors (RPEs), which are the differences between experienced and predicted rewards. Such model-based analysis has the drawback that the parameter estimates and inference of latent variables are not necessarily correct-rather, they usually contain some errors. A previous study theoretically and empirically showed that the error in model-fitting does not necessarily cause a serious error in model-based fMRI. However, the study did not deal with certain situations relevant to psychiatry, such as group comparisons between patients and healthy controls. We developed a theoretical framework to explore such situations. We demonstrate that the parameter-misspecification can critically affect the results of group comparison. We demonstrate that even if the RPE response in patients is completely intact, a spurious difference to healthy controls is observable. Such a situation occurs when the ground-truth learning rate differs between groups but a common learning rate is used, as per previous studies. Furthermore, even if the parameters are appropriately fitted to individual participants, spurious group differences in RPE responses are observable when the model lacks a component that differs between groups. These results highlight the importance of appropriate model-fitting and the need for caution when interpreting the results of model-based fMRI.

Auditory information enhances post-sensory visual evidence during rapid multisensory decision-making

Despite recent progress in understanding multisensory decision-making, a conclusive mechanistic account of how the brain translates the relevant evidence into a decision is lacking. Specifically, it remains unclear whether perceptual improvements during rapid multisensory decisions are best explained by sensory (i.e., ‘Early’) processing benefits or post-sensory (i.e., ‘Late’) changes in decision dynamics. Here, we employ a well-established visual object categorisation task in which early sensory and post-sensory decision evidence can be dissociated using multivariate pattern analysis of the electroencephalogram (EEG). We capitalize on these distinct neural components to identify when and how complementary auditory information influences the encoding of decision-relevant visual evidence in a multisensory context. We show that it is primarily the post-sensory, rather than the early sensory, EEG component amplitudes that are being amplified during rapid audiovisual decision-making. Using a neurally informed drift diffusion model we demonstrate that a multisensory behavioral improvement in accuracy arises from an enhanced quality of the relevant decision evidence, as captured by the post-sensory EEG component, consistent with the emergence of multisensory evidence in higher-order brain areas.

A conclusive account on how the brain translates audiovisual evidence into a rapid decision is still lacking. Here, using a neurally-informed modelling approach, the authors show that sounds amplify visual evidence later in the decision process, in line with higher-order multisensory effects.

The Reflection Effect in Memory-Based Decisions

Previous research has indicated a bias in memory-based decision-making, with people preferring options that they remember better. However, the cognitive mechanisms underlying this memory bias remain elusive. Here, we propose that choosing poorly remembered options is conceptually similar to choosing options with uncertain outcomes. We predicted that the memory bias would be reduced when options had negative subjective value, analogous to the reflection effect, according to which uncertainty aversion is stronger in gains than in losses. In two preregistered experiments ( N = 36 each), participants made memory-based decisions between appetitive and aversive stimuli. People preferred better-remembered options in the gain domain, but this behavioral pattern reversed in the loss domain. This effect was not related to participants’ ambiguity or risk attitudes, as measured in a separate task. Our results increase the understanding of memory-based decision-making and connect this emerging field to well-established research on decisions under uncertainty.

Computational Evidence for Underweighting of Current Error and Overestimation of Future Error in Anxious Individuals

BACKGROUND

Real-time control of goal-directed actions requires continuous adjustments in response to both current error (i.e., distance from goal state) and predicted future error. Proportion-integral-derivative control models, which are extensively used in the automated control of industrial processes, formalize this intuition. Previous computational approaches to anxiety have separately addressed behavioral inhibition and exaggerated error processing, but a proportion-integral-derivative control approach that decomposes error processing into current and anticipated error could integrate these accounts and extend them to a real-time sensorimotor control domain.

METHODS

We applied a simplified proportion-derivative control model to a virtual driving task in a transdiagnostic psychiatric sample of 317 individuals and computed a drive parameter (weighting of current error) and a damping parameter (weighting of the rate of change of error, enabling adjustment based on future error).

RESULTS

Self-reported fear, but not negative affect, was selectively associated with lower drive and lower damping. Those individuals that were characterized by lower drive and damping also exhibited lower caudal anterior cingulate cortex, but not insula, volume in a structural magnetic resonance imaging analysis.

CONCLUSIONS

The proportion-derivative control approach reveals that fear is specifically associated with reduced weighting of current error and overestimation of future error, resulting in both approach inhibition and overcorrecting overshoots around a goal state.

Where perception meets belief updating: Computational evidence for slower updating of visual expectations in anxious individuals

BACKGROUND

Surprising events are important sources of internal model updating which adjusts expectations for both decision-making and perceptual processing circuits. Anxious individuals display relatively intact updating of internal models used to make decisions, however how these individuals update their perceptual expectations remains poorly understood. Based on previous work, we hypothesized that anxious individuals experienced exaggerated surprise to predictable events, which imbues them with undue salience.

METHODS

To model the rate of updating of internal models for both decision-making and perceptual processing, we applied a hybrid Rescorla Wagner (RW)/Drift Diffusion Model (DDM) to a change point detection task in a transdiagnostic group of individuals with mood and anxiety disorders and examined the relationship between learning rates and anxiety and negative affect.

RESULTS

Model comparison provided evidence that decision-making and perceptual processing rely on separate internal models with different learning rates. Anxiety and older age were associated with slower updating of models used in perceptual processing, but not those used in decision-making.

LIMITATIONS

This was a cross-sectional study and lacked neural data to examine the role of specific brain circuits in updating of perceptual predictions.

CONCLUSIONS

Anxious individuals display slower updating of internal models used in perceptual processing, but not those used in decision-making. This deficit could contribute to exaggerated salience of harmless stimuli in anxiety. The results have implications for the assessment and treatment of basic processing dysfunctions in anxiety.

Large data and Bayesian modeling-aging curves of NBA players

Researchers interested in changes that occur as people age are faced with a number of methodological problems, starting with the immense time scale they are trying to capture, which renders laboratory experiments useless and longitudinal studies rather rare. Fortunately, some people take part in particular activities and pastimes throughout their lives, and often these activities are systematically recorded. In this study, we use the wealth of data collected by the National Basketball Association to describe the aging curves of elite basketball players. We have developed a new approach rooted in the Bayesian tradition in order to understand the factors behind the development and deterioration of a complex motor skill. The new model uses Bayesian structural modeling to extract two latent factors, those of development and aging. The interaction of these factors provides insight into the rates of development and deterioration of skill over the course of a player's life. We show, for example, that elite athletes have different levels of decline in the later stages of their career, which is dependent on their skill acquisition phase. The model goes beyond description of the aging function, in that it can accommodate the aging curves of subgroups (e.g., different positions played in the game), as well as other relevant factors (e.g., the number of minutes on court per game) that might play a role in skill changes. The flexibility and general nature of the new model make it a perfect candidate for use across different domains in lifespan psychology.

Assessing the practical differences between model selection methods in inferences about choice response time tasks

Evidence accumulations models (EAMs) have become the dominant modeling framework within rapid decision-making, using choice response time distributions to make inferences about the underlying decision process. These models are often applied to empirical data as "measurement tools", with different theoretical accounts being contrasted within the framework of the model. Some method is then needed to decide between these competing theoretical accounts, as only assessing the models on their ability to fit trends in the empirical data ignores model flexibility, and therefore, creates a bias towards more flexible models. However, there is no objectively optimal method to select between models, with methods varying in both their computational tractability and theoretical basis. I provide a systematic comparison between nine different model selection methods using a popular EAM-the linear ballistic accumulator (LBA; Brown & Heathcote, Cognitive Psychology 57(3), 153-178 2008)-in a large-scale simulation study and the empirical data of Dutilh et al. (Psychonomic Bulletin and Review, 1-19 2018). I find that the "predictive accuracy" class of methods (i.e., the Akaike Information Criterion [AIC], the Deviance Information Criterion [DIC], and the Widely Applicable Information Criterion [WAIC]) make different inferences to the "Bayes factor" class of methods (i.e., the Bayesian Information Criterion [BIC], and Bayes factors) in many, but not all, instances, and that the simpler methods (i.e., AIC and BIC) make inferences that are highly consistent with their more complex counterparts. These findings suggest that researchers should be able to use simpler "parameter counting" methods when applying the LBA and be confident in their inferences, but that researchers need to carefully consider and justify the general class of model selection method that they use, as different classes of methods often result in different inferences.

Characterizing the role of the pre-SMA in the control of speed/accuracy trade-off with directed functional connectivity mapping and multiple solution reduction

Several plausible theories of the neural implementation of speed/accuracy trade-off (SAT), the phenomenon in which individuals may alternately emphasize speed or accuracy during the performance of cognitive tasks, have been proposed, and multiple lines of evidence point to the involvement of the pre-supplemental motor area (pre-SMA). However, as the nature and directionality of the pre-SMA's functional connections to other regions involved in cognitive control and task processing are not known, its precise role in the top-down control of SAT remains unclear. Although recent advances in cross-sectional path modeling provide a promising way of characterizing these connections, such models are limited by their tendency to produce multiple equivalent solutions. In a sample of healthy adults (N = 18), the current study uses the novel approach of Group Iterative Multiple Model Estimation for Multiple Solutions (GIMME-MS) to assess directed functional connections between the pre-SMA, other regions previously linked to control of SAT, and regions putatively involved in evidence accumulation for the decision task. Results reveal a primary role of the pre-SMA for modulating activity in regions involved in the decision process but suggest that this region receives top-down input from the DLPFC. Findings also demonstrate the utility of GIMME-MS and solution-reduction methods for obtaining valid directional inferences from connectivity path models.

A Simple Method for Comparing Complex Models: Bayesian Model Comparison for Hierarchical Multinomial Processing Tree Models Using Warp-III Bridge Sampling

Multinomial processing trees (MPTs) are a popular class of cognitive models for categorical data. Typically, researchers compare several MPTs, each equipped with many parameters, especially when the models are implemented in a hierarchical framework. A Bayesian solution is to compute posterior model probabilities and Bayes factors. Both quantities, however, rely on the marginal likelihood, a high-dimensional integral that cannot be evaluated analytically. In this case study, we show how Warp-III bridge sampling can be used to compute the marginal likelihood for hierarchical MPTs. We illustrate the procedure with two published data sets and demonstrate how Warp-III facilitates Bayesian model averaging.

Some Evidence for an Association Between Early Life Adversity and Decision Urgency

The relationship between early life adversity and adult outcomes is traditionally investigated relative to risk and protective factors (e.g., resilience, cognitive appraisal), and poor self-control or decision-making. However, life history theory suggests this relationship may be adaptive-underpinned by mechanisms that use early environmental cues to alter the developmental trajectory toward more short-term strategies. These short-term strategies have some theoretical overlap with the most common process models of decision-making-evidence accumulation models-which model decision urgency as a decision threshold. The current study examined the relationship between decision urgency (through the linear ballistic accumulator) and early life adversity. A mixture of analysis methods, including a joint model analysis designed to explicitly account for uncertainty in estimated decision urgency values, revealed weak-to-strong evidence in favor of a relationship between decision urgency and early life adversity, suggesting a possible effect of life history strategy on even the most basic decisions.