Predicting Which Children with Juvenile Idiopathic Arthritis Will Not Attain Early Remission with Conventional Treatment: Results from the ReACCh-Out Cohort

Patterns and determinants of response to novel therapies in juvenile and adult-onset polyarthritis

Biologic and targeted synthetic DMARDs (b/tsDMARDs) have revolutionized the management of multiple rheumatic inflammatory conditions. Among these, polyarticular JIA (pJIA) and RA display similarities in terms of disease pathophysiology and response pattern to b/tsDMARDs. Indeed, the therapeutic efficacy of novel targeted drugs is variable among individual patients, in both RA and pJIA. The mechanisms and determinants of this heterogeneous response are diverse and complex, such that the development of true 'precision'-medicine strategies has proven highly challenging. In this review, we will discuss pathophysiological, patient-specific, drug-specific and environmental factors contributing to individual therapeutic response in pJIA in comparison with what is known in RA. Although some biomarkers have been identified that stratify with respect to the likelihood of either therapeutic response or non-response, few have proved useful in clinical practice so far, likely due to the complexity of treatment-response mechanisms. Consequently, we propose a pragmatic, patient-centred and clinically based approach, i.e. personalized instead of biomarker-based precision medicine in JIA.

Baricitinib in juvenile idiopathic arthritis: an international, phase 3, randomised, double-blind, placebo-controlled, withdrawal, efficacy, and safety trial

BACKGROUND

Juvenile idiopathic arthritis can be refractory to some or all treatment regimens, therefore new medications are needed to treat this population. This trial assessed the efficacy and safety of baricitinib, an oral Janus kinase 1/2-selective inhibitor, versus placebo in patients with juvenile idiopathic arthritis.

METHODS

This phase 3, randomised, double-blind, placebo-controlled, withdrawal, efficacy, and safety trial was conducted in 75 centres in 20 countries. We enrolled patients (aged 2 to <18 years) with polyarticular juvenile idiopathic arthritis (positive or negative for rheumatoid factor), extended oligoarticular juvenile idiopathic arthritis, enthesitis-related arthritis, or juvenile psoriatic arthritis, and an inadequate response (after ≥12 weeks of treatment) or intolerance to one or more conventional synthetic or biologic disease-modifying antirheumatic drugs (DMARDs). The trial consisted of a 2-week safety and pharmacokinetic period, a 12-week open-label lead-in period (10 weeks for the safety and pharmacokinetic subcohort), and an up to 32-week placebo-controlled double-blind withdrawal period. After age-based dosing was established in the safety and pharmacokinetic period, patients received a once-daily 4 mg adult-equivalent dose of baricitinib (tablets or suspension) in the open-label lead-in period. Patients meeting Juvenile Idiopathic Arthritis-American College of Rheumatology (JIA-ACR) 30 criteria (JIA-ACR30 responders) at the end of the open-label lead-in (week 12) were eligible for random assignment (1:1) to receive placebo or continue receiving baricitinib, and remained in the double-blind withdrawal period until disease flare or up to the end of the double-blind withdrawal period (week 44). Patients and any personnel interacting directly with patients or sites were masked to group assignment. The primary endpoint was time to disease flare during the double-blind withdrawal period and was assessed in the intention-to-treat population of all randomly assigned patients. Safety was assessed in all patients who received at least one dose of baricitinib throughout the three trial periods. For adverse events in the double-blind withdrawal period, exposure-adjusted incidence rates were calculated. The trial was registered on ClinicalTrials.gov, NCT03773978, and is completed.

FINDINGS

Between Dec 17, 2018 and March 3, 2021, 220 patients were enrolled and received at least one dose of baricitinib (152 [69%] girls and 68 [31%] boys; median age 14·0 years [IQR 12·0-16·0]). 219 patients received baricitinib in the open-label lead-in period, of whom 163 (74%) had at least a JIA-ACR30 response at week 12 and were randomly assigned to placebo (n=81) or baricitinib (n=82) in the double-blind withdrawal period. Time to disease flare was significantly shorter with placebo versus baricitinib (hazard ratio 0·241 [95% CI 0·128-0·453], p<0·0001). Median time to flare was 27·14 weeks (95% CI 15·29-not estimable) in the placebo group, and not evaluable for patients in the baricitinib group (<50% had a flare event). Six (3%) of 220 patients had serious adverse events during the safety and pharmacokinetic period or open-label lead-in period. In the double-blind withdrawal period, serious adverse events were reported in four (5%) of 82 patients (incidence rate [IR] 9·7 [95% CI 2·7-24·9] per 100 patient-years at risk) in the baricitinib group and three (4%) of 81 (IR 10·2 [2·1-29·7]) in the placebo group. Treatment-emergent infections were reported during the safety and pharmacokinetic or open-label lead-in period in 55 (25%) of 220 patients, and during the double-blind withdrawal period in 31 (38%) of 82 (IR 102·1 [95% CI 69·3-144·9]) in the baricitinib group and 15 (19%) of 81 (IR 59·0 [33·0-97·3]) in the placebo group. Pulmonary embolism was reported as a serious adverse event in one patient (1%; IR 2·4 [95% CI 0·1-13·3]) in the baricitinib group in the double-blind withdrawal period, which was judged to be related to study treatment.

INTERPRETATION

Baricitinib was efficacious with an acceptable safety profile in the treatment of polyarticular juvenile idiopathic arthritis, extended oligoarticular juvenile idiopathic arthritis, enthesitis-related arthritis, and juvenile psoriatic arthritis, after inadequate response or intolerance to standard therapy.

FUNDING

Eli Lilly and Company under licence from Incyte.

Biologic Abatement and Capturing Kids' Outcomes and Flare Frequency in Juvenile Spondyloarthritis (BACK-OFF JSpA): study protocol for a randomized pragmatic trial

BACKGROUND

The effectiveness of biologic therapies, primarily tumor necrosis factor inhibitors (TNFi), for children with spondyloarthritis (SpA) has made inactive disease a realistic patient outcome. However, biologic therapies are costly, primarily delivered by subcutaneous or intravenous route, and have non-trivial side effects. Many patients and families want to know if biologic medications can be discontinued after inactive disease is achieved. It remains unclear whether medication dose should remain unchanged, tapered (increase the time between doses), or discontinued once when inactive disease is attained.

METHODS

The Biologic Abatement and Capturing Kids' Outcomes and Flare Frequency in Juvenile SpA (BACK-OFF JSpA) trial is a multicenter pragmatic trial that will randomize 198 participants ages 8-21 years old with SpA and sustained inactive disease on standard TNFi dosing to (1) continue standard TNFi dosing, (2) fixed longer dosing intervals of TNFi, or (3) stop TNFi. The trial will compare the hazard rate of protocol-defined flare and participants' emotional health among the 3 groups over 12 months. Innovative aspects of this trial are the involvement of patient and parent stakeholders in the design and conduct of the study as well as an electronic health record-based enhanced recruitment strategy.

DISCUSSION

This is the first randomized pragmatic trial to assess the efficacy of TNFi de-escalation strategies in children with JSpA with sustained inactive disease. This research will improve the evidence base that patients, caregivers, and rheumatologists use to make shared decisions about continued treatment versus de-escalation of TNFi therapy in this population.

TRIAL REGISTRATION

ClinicalTrials.gov NCT04891640. Registered on 18 May 2021.

Musculoskeletal Ultrasound in Childhood Arthritis Limited Examination: A Comprehensive, Reliable, Time-Efficient Assessment of Synovitis

OBJECTIVE

To develop and initially validate a comprehensive pediatric musculoskeletal ultrasound (MSUS) joint-specific scoring system, and to determine the minimum number of joints needed to identify active disease.

METHODS

A semiquantitative scoring system was developed by consensus and initially validated by interrater reliability using intraclass correlation coefficients (ICCs). Subsequently, newly diagnosed juvenile idiopathic arthritis patients with an active joint count of >4 had a 42-joint MSUS performed at baseline and 3 months using this protocol. A minimum set of joints needed to identify all patients with synovitis on MSUS was obtained through a data reduction process. Spearman's correlation (rs ) was calculated to determine the association between MSUS findings and clinical Juvenile Arthritis Disease Activity Score in 10 joints (cJADAS10). Standardized response means (SMRs) were used to assess change over time.

RESULTS

The final joint-specific scoring system revealed an excellent interrater reliability (ICC 0.81-0.96) for all joints. Thirty patients were enrolled. Scanning 5 joints bilaterally (wrists, second and third metacarpophalangeal joints, knees and ankles) captured 100% of children with B-mode synovitis and had moderate correlation with the cJADAS10 at baseline (rs  = 0.45). Mean ultrasound scores at baseline and follow-up were 28.3 and 22.3, with an SRM of 0.69 (P = 0.002) for 42 joints, and 36 and 27.7, with an SRM of 0.76 (P = 0.003) for the reduced joints, respectively.

CONCLUSION

A limited MSUS examination called musculoskeletal ultrasound in childhood arthritis limited examination (MUSICAL) captures all patients with active synovitis, and our new joint-specific scoring system is highly reliable and sensitive to change.

Stakeholder outcome prioritization in the Biologic Abatement and Capturing Kids' Outcomes and Flare Frequency in Juvenile Spondyloarthritis (BACK-OFF JSpA) trial

BACKGROUND

The Biologic Abatement and Capturing Kids' Outcomes and Flare Frequency in Juvenile Spondyloarthritis (BACK-OFF JSpA) study is a randomized, pragmatic trial investigating different tumour necrosis factor inhibitor de-escalation strategies for children with sustained inactive disease. In this project, we elicited concept rankings that aided in the selection of the patient-reported outcome (PRO) measures that should be examined as part of the BACK-OFF JSpA trial.

METHODS

We conducted a discrete choice experiment to evaluate individuals' preferences regarding PROs. Stakeholders assessed a discrete list of 21 outcome concepts, each of which had a Patient-Reported Outcome Measurement Information System (PROMIS) measure associated with it. PROMIS measures are self- or proxy-reported instruments that are universally applicable to the general population and all chronic conditions. Stakeholders were required to make choices instead of expressing the strength of a preference.

RESULTS

Fourteen caregivers, 12 patients (9-22 years old), 16 rheumatologists and three executives from health insurance companies completed the exercise, which took approximately 10 min. The discrete choice experiment resulted in an estimate of the relative importance of each outcome and rank. All stakeholder groups agreed that the primary PRO should be 'Pain Interference', a measure that evaluates the effect of pain on a child's everyday activities, including its impact on social, emotional, mental and physical functioning. Patients and caregivers were mostly aligned in their top priorities, with patients valuing physical health (50% of the top 10) whereas caregivers were more interested in mental health (60% of the top 10). Rheumatologists and health insurance executives were most interested in physical health outcomes, which were ranked 80% and 60% of their top 10 PROs, respectively. Overall, the patients had the most diverse set of prioritized outcomes, including at least one of each category in their top 10 rank order of importance. Patients were also the only stakeholders to prioritize 'social' health.

CONCLUSIONS

Patients and caregivers were mostly aligned in their outcome priority rankings. The rank-order list directly informed the creation of a profile of PRO measures for our upcoming trial.

PATIENT OR PUBLIC CONTRIBUTION

Stakeholder partners helped with acquisition of data and lead parent partners helped interpret data.

Treat to Target (Drug-Free) Inactive Disease in JIA: To What Extent Is This Possible?

Background: Treat to target (T2T) is a strategy that has been increasingly employed in the management of several chronic diseases, with demonstrated improved outcomes. The use of T2T in juvenile idiopathic arthritis (JIA), a common rheumatic disease of childhood, is still in its infancy, and the feasibility of its use in attaining drug-free clinical remission is unclear. Aims: We aim to explore the current literature of the use of T2T in JIA, and to review the potential benefits and limitations of this approach in regard to this chronic disease. Sources: A comprehensive PubMed search was conducted using relevant keywords, with full text articles in English included in the review. Content: T2T is an appealing strategy for improving outcomes of pediatric rheumatic diseases given the limited availability of therapeutics and potential cumulative effects of long-term immunosuppression. The application in a cohort of children, however, is limited by heterogeneity of disease, availability of high-quality evidence, and patient and parental preferences. Unlike adult rheumatoid arthritis, the 'window of opportunity' has not been definitively demonstrated in large scale trials, and although early studies of T2T in JIA have been favorable, the timing and means of escalation (especially with regard to biologics) need clarification. Implications: This review outlines several issues of implementing T2T in JIA, including the important extra-articular manifestations of disease and non-pharmacological management, that should be considered in future consensus guidelines.

Association Between Patient‐Reported Outcomes and Treatment Failure in Juvenile Idiopathic Arthritis

Objective

Children with juvenile idiopathic arthritis (JIA) frequently exhibit symptoms months before diagnosis. The aims of this study were to assess whether baseline patient‐reported outcomes (PROs) are associated with changes in JIA pharmacotherapy treatment and whether symptom duration prior to JIA diagnosis is associated with disease activity scores over time.

Methods

This is a retrospective cohort study of patients with an incident diagnosis of JIA. Patient‐reported symptom duration, pain, energy, disease activity, sleep, anxiety, and depression screenings, as well as provider‐reported disease activity and joint count, were collected during routine clinical care. Cox proportional hazards evaluated PROs, disease activity scores, and symptom duration with initial medication failure within 9 months of diagnosis. Multivariate mixed effects linear regression evaluated the association of symptom duration with disease activity scores.

Results

There were 58 children (66% female, 35% oligoarticular JIA) in the cohort. Nearly half of patients failed initial therapy within 9 months. Unadjusted analysis showed that higher energy (hazard ratio [HR]: 0.82; 95% confidence interval [CI]: 0.69‐0.99; P = 0.04) and longer symptom duration (HR: 0.96; 95% CI: 0.93‐0.99; P = 0.03) at diagnosis were protective against medication failure. Adjusted analysis showed that symptom duration prior to diagnosis was protective against medication failure (HR: 0.95; 95% CI: 0.92‐0.99; P = 0.02); there was no association between medication failure and pain, psychiatric symptoms, or disease activity scores. There was a positive association with longer symptom duration and higher disease activity at 30 and 60 days, but this was not sustained.

Conclusion

Higher energy levels and longer symptom duration are protective against initial JIA treatment failures. Initial treatments informed by patient‐reported data could lead to more successful outcomes by changes in treatment paradigms.

Probability of Response in the First Sixteen Weeks After Starting Biologics: An Analysis of Juvenile Idiopathic Arthritis Biologics Trials

OBJECTIVES

Most juvenile idiopathic arthritis (JIA) biologic disease-modifying antirheumatic drugs (bDMARDs) trials used an open-label run-in period followed by randomized medication withdrawal. We used data from the run-in period of 4 bDMARD trials to 1) delineate early response trajectory to bDMARDs and 2) identify predictors of early response.

METHODS

Data from the first 16 weeks of 4 bDMARD trials were used. The primary outcome was the American College of Rheumatology (ACR) Pediatric 50 (Pedi 50) response criteria: clinically significant response defined as ACR Pedi 50 or greater. The secondary outcome was the clinical Juvenile Arthritis Disease Activity Score in 10 joints (cJADAS10) minimal disease activity state. Response transition rates and predictors were modeled using an inhomogeneous Markov multistate model.

RESULTS

Five hundred thirty-two participants (70% receiving methotrexate, 41% prednisone) were included. By month 4, the probability of attaining ACR Pedi 50 or greater was 0.698. If ACR Pedi 50 or more was not achieved by month 1, the probability of achieving it by month 4 was 0.60. If ACR Pedi 50 or more was not achieved by month 3, the probability of achieving this by month 4 was 0.31. Age at diagnosis, disease duration, baseline rheumatoid factor, and active joint counts predicted ACR and cJADAS state transitions, adjusted for concomitant treatment.

CONCLUSIONS

No response ACR Pedi 50 or more by month 1 after treatment was associated with a 0.60 probability of responding by month 4, but not responding by month 3 was associated with a 0.31 probability of response by month 4. Baseline disease duration, rheumatoid factor, and active joint counts predicted early treatment response (ACR and cJADAS10 states).

Drivers of non-zero physician global scores during periods of inactive disease in juvenile idiopathic arthritis

Objective

To investigate the frequency in which the physician provides a global assessment of disease activity (PhGA) >0 and an active joint count (AJC)=0 in children with juvenile idiopathic arthritis (JIA) and search for determinants of divergence between the two measures.

Methods

Data were extracted from a multinational cross-sectional dataset of 9966 patients who had JIA by International League of Associations for Rheumatology criteria, were recruited between 2011 and 2016, and had both PhGA and AJC recorded by the caring paediatric rheumatologist at the study visit. Determinants of discordance between PhGA>0 and AJC=0 were searched for by multivariable logistic regression and dominance analyses.

Results

The PhGA was scored >0 in 1647 (32.3%) of 5103 patients who had an AJC of 0. Independent associations with discordant assessment were identified for tender or restricted joint count >0, history of enthesitis, presence of active uveitis or systemic features, enthesitis-related or systemic arthritis, increased acute phase reactants, pain visual analogue scale (VAS)>0, and impaired physical or psychosocial well-being. In dominance analysis, tender joint count accounted for 35.43% of PhGA variance, followed by pain VAS>0 (17.72%), restricted joint count >0 (16.14%) and physical health score >0 (11.42%).

Conclusion

We found that many paediatric rheumatologists did not mark a score of 0 for patients who they found not to have active joints. The presence of pain in joints not meeting the definition of active joint used in JIA was the main determinant of this phenomenon.

Tofacitinib in juvenile idiopathic arthritis: a double-blind, placebo-controlled, withdrawal phase 3 randomised trial

BACKGROUND

Tofacitinib is an oral Janus kinase inhibitor. This trial assessed the efficacy and safety of tofacitinib versus placebo in patients with polyarticular course juvenile idiopathic arthritis (JIA).

METHODS

This double-blind, withdrawal phase 3 trial enrolled patients with polyarticular course JIA (extended oligoarthritis, rheumatoid factor-positive or rheumatoid factor-negative polyarthritis, or systemic JIA without active systemic features) aged 2 years to younger than 18 years, and was done at 64 centres of the Paediatric Rheumatology International Trials Organisation and Pediatric Rheumatology Collaborative Study Group networks in 14 countries. Patients with psoriatic arthritis or enthesitis-related arthritis were enrolled for exploratory endpoints. During part 1 of the study, patients received oral open-label tofacitinib (weight-based doses; 5 mg twice daily or lower) for 18 weeks. Patients achieving at least JIA/American College of Rheumatology 30 response were randomly assigned (1:1) using an Interactive Response Technology system to continue tofacitinib or switch to placebo in part 2 of the study for 26 weeks. The primary endpoint was JIA flare rate by week 44 in part 2 in patients with polyarticular course JIA; the intention-to-treat principle was applied. Safety was evaluated throughout part 1 and part 2 of the study in all patients who received one dose or more of study medication. This trial is registered with ClinicalTrials.gov, NCT02592434.

FINDINGS

Between June 10, 2016, and May 16, 2019, of 225 patients enrolled, 184 (82%) patients had polyarticular course JIA, 20 (9%) had psoriatic arthritis, and 21 (9%) had enthesitis-related arthritis. 147 (65%) of 225 patients received concomitant methotrexate. In part 2, 142 patients with polyarticular course JIA were assigned to tofacitinib (n=72) or placebo (n=70). Flare rate by week 44 was significantly lower with tofacitinib (21 [29%] of 72 patients) than with placebo (37 [53%] of 70 patients; hazard ratio 0·46, 95% CI 0·27-0·79; p=0·0031). In part 2 of the study, adverse events occurred in 68 (77%) of 88 patients receiving tofacitinib and 63 (74%) of 85 in the placebo group. Serious adverse events occurred in one (1%) and two (2%), respectively. In the entire tofacitinib exposure period, 107 (48%) of 225 patients had infections or infestations. There were no deaths during this study.

INTERPRETATION

The results of this pivotal trial show that tofacitinib is an effective treatment in patients with polyarticular course JIA. New oral therapies are particularly relevant for children and adolescents, who might prefer to avoid injections.

FUNDING

Pfizer.

Impact of the COVID-19 Pandemic on Juvenile Idiopathic Arthritis Presentation and Research Recruitment: Results from the CAPRI Registry

OBJECTIVE

The COVID-19 pandemic has disrupted healthcare delivery and clinical research worldwide, with data from areas most affected demonstrating an impact on rheumatology care. This study aimed to characterize the impact of the pandemic on the initial presentation of JIA and JIA-related research in Canada.

METHODS

Data collected from the Canadian Alliance of Pediatric Rheumatology Investigators JIA Registry from the year pre-pandemic (March 11, 2019-March 10, 2020) was compared with data collected during the first year of the pandemic (March 11, 2020-March 10, 2021). Outcomes included time from symptom onset to first assessment, disease severity at presentation and registry recruitment. Proportions and medians were used to describe categorical and continuous variables, respectively.

RESULTS

The median time from symptom onset to first assessment was 138 days (IQR 64-365) pre-pandemic vs 146 days (IQR 83-359) during the pandemic. The JIA category frequencies remained overall stable, (44% oligoarticular JIA pre-pandemic, 46.8% pandemic), except for systemic JIA (12 cases pre-pandemic, 1 pandemic). Clinical features, disease activity (cJADAS10), disability (CHAQ) and quality of life (JAQQ) scores were similar between the two cohorts. Pre-pandemic, 225 patients were enrolled, compared with 111 in the pandemic year, with the greatest decrease from March to June 2020.

CONCLUSIONS

We did not observe the anticipated delay in time to presentation or increased severity at presentation, suggesting that, within Canada, care adapted well to provide support to new patient consults without negative impacts. The COVID-19 pandemic was associated with an initial 50% decrease in registry enrolment but has since improved.

Outcomes in Juvenile-Onset Spondyloarthritis

Some studies have suggested children with juvenile onset spondyloarthritis (JoSpA) have a relatively poor outcome compared to other juvenile idiopathic arthritis (JIA) categories, in regards to functional status and failure to attain remission. Thus, in the interest of earlier recognition and risk stratification, awareness of the unique characteristics of this group is critical. Herein, we review the clinical burden of disease, prognostic indicators and outcomes in JoSpA. Of note, although children exhibit less axial disease at onset compared to adults with spondyloarthritis (SpA), 34–62% have magnetic resonance imaging (MRI) evidence for active inflammation in the absence of reported back pain. Furthermore, some studies have reported that more than half of children with “enthesitis related arthritis” (ERA) develop axial disease within 5 years of diagnosis. Axial disease, and more specifically sacroiliitis, portends continued active disease. The advent of TNF inhibitors has promised to be a “game changer,” given their relatively high efficacy for enthesitis and axial disease. However, the real world experience in various cohorts since the introduction of more widespread TNF inhibitor usage, in which greater than a third still have persistently active disease, suggests there is still work to be done in developing new therapies and improving the outlook for JoSpA.

Recent progress in the treatment of non-systemic juvenile idiopathic arthritis

Juvenile idiopathic arthritis (JIA) is a chronic inflammatory disease affecting the joints and other organs that occurs in 1 in 1,000 children in the United States. Given the various categories of JIA, interpretation of the literature can be difficult. In this review, new developments in understanding non-systemic JIA and its treatment will be covered. Recent advances in the journey toward personalized treatment in JIA will be highlighted, including a review of currently available biologic modifiers. Uveitis and the temporomandibular joint will be discussed as particularly challenging treatment issues. Recent guideline updates and literature-guided treatment decisions will be reviewed.

Clinical and associated inflammatory biomarker features predictive of short-term outcomes in non-systemic juvenile idiopathic arthritis

OBJECTIVE

To identify early predictors of disease activity at 18 months in JIA using clinical and biomarker profiling.

METHODS

Clinical and biomarker data were collected at JIA diagnosis in a prospective longitudinal inception cohort of 82 children with non-systemic JIA, and their ability to predict an active joint count of 0, a physician global assessment of disease activity of ≤1 cm, and inactive disease by Wallace 2004 criteria 18 months later was assessed. Correlation-based feature selection and ReliefF were used to shortlist predictors and random forest models were trained to predict outcomes.

RESULTS

From the original 112 features, 13 effectively predicted 18-month outcomes. They included age, number of active/effused joints, wrist, ankle and/or knee involvement, ESR, ANA positivity and plasma levels of five inflammatory biomarkers (IL-10, IL-17, IL-12p70, soluble low-density lipoprotein receptor-related protein 1 and vitamin D), at enrolment. The clinical plus biomarker panel predicted active joint count = 0, physician global assessment ≤ 1, and inactive disease after 18 months with 0.79, 0.80 and 0.83 accuracy and 0.84, 0.83, 0.88 area under the curve, respectively. Using clinical features alone resulted in 0.75, 0.72 and 0.80 accuracy, and area under the curve values of 0.81, 0.78 and 0.83, respectively.

CONCLUSION

A panel of five plasma biomarkers combined with clinical features at the time of diagnosis more accurately predicted short-term disease activity in JIA than clinical characteristics alone. If validated in external cohorts, such a panel may guide more rationally conceived, biologically based, personalized treatment strategies in early JIA.

Outcomes and predictors of juvenile idiopathic arthritis in Southeast Asia: a Singapore longitudinal study over a decade

OBJECTIVE

To assess short- and long-term outcomes and predictors of juvenile idiopathic arthritis (JIA) children treated with contemporary therapy and compare those with reports elsewhere.

METHODS

Children with JIA were recruited from our web-based REgistry for Childhood Onset Rheumatic Diseases (RECORD) from 1997 to 2015. Disease status was defined using modified Wallace criteria. Nonparametric statistics described the data. Kaplan-Meier survival and logistic regression analyses were used to estimate probabilities and to determine predictors of outcomes.

RESULTS

A total of 251 children with JIA (62% males, 71% Chinese) were included. Median follow-up duration was 2.9 years (range 0.1-17.5). Short-term clinical inactive disease (CID) was attained in 37% with 62% systemic JIA (sJIA) and 47% persistent oligoarthritis (oJIA). Methotrexate (OR 0.34) decreased but sJIA (OR 3.25) increased chance of attaining CID at 6 months. Overall, 79% of patients achieved CID within 2 years (sJIA 92%, the highest, and RF+ polyarthritis 50%, the lowest probability). Biologics were associated with CID attainment (OR 2.73). One-half of patients flare after CID, median 1.2 years (IQR 0.71-1.97). Late CID achievement predicted flare (OR 2.15). Only 15% had clinical remission off medication (none RF+ polyarthritis and 7% ERA). Only 13% of patients had active arthritis as young adults and 22% had active arthritis at last visit.

CONCLUSION

Despite high proportion of JIA patients attaining CID, only one-fourth could stop all medications for at least 1 year. Persistent oJIA patients were less likely to achieve clinical remission on medication and ERA patients had the least chance stopping medications. One-tenth of patients had active arthritis as young adults. Key Points • Majority of Asian children with JIA attained inactive disease within 2 years after diagnosis. • Outcome predictors were different from reports from the West. • Despite high inactive disease numbers, only one-in-four JIA patients discontinued treatment within 5 years.

Treating juvenile idiopathic arthritis to target: what is the optimal target definition to reach all goals?

In 2018, an international Task Force formulated recommendations for treating Juvenile Idiopathic Arthritis (JIA) to target. The Task Force has not yet resolved three issues. The first issue is the lack of a single "best" target. The Task Force decided not to recommend the use of a specific instrument to assess inactive disease or remission. Recent studies underscore the use of a broad target definition. The second issue is the basic assumption that a treatment aggressively aimed at the target will have 'domino effects' on other treatment goals as well. Thus far, this assumption was not confirmed for pain, fatigue and stiffness. The third issue is shared decision-making, and the role of individual patient targets. Nowadays, patients and parents should have a more active role in choosing targets and their personal treatment goals. In our department the electronic medical records have been restructured in such a way that the patient's personal treatment goals with a target date appears on the front page. The visualization of their specific personal goals helps us to have meaningful discussions on the individualized treatment strategy and to share decisions. In conclusion, a joint treat to target (T2T) strategy is a promising approach for JIA. The Task Force formulated valuable overarching principles and a first version of recommendations. However, implementation of T2T needs to capture more than just inactive disease. Patients and parents should have an active role in choosing personal targets as well.

Validation of prediction models of severe disease course and non-achievement of remission in juvenile idiopathic arthritis part 2: results of the Nordic model in the Canadian cohort

Background

Validated clinical prediction models to identify children with poor prognosis at the time of juvenile idiopathic arthritis (JIA) diagnosis would be very helpful for tailoring treatments, and avoiding under- or over-treatment. Our objective was to externally validate Nordic clinical prediction models in Canadian patients with JIA.

Methods

We used data from 513 subjects at the 3-year follow-up from the Research in Arthritis in Canadian Children emphasizing Outcomes (ReACCh-Out) cohort. The predicted outcomes were non-achievement of remission, severe disease course, and functional disability. The Nordic models were evaluated exactly as published and after fine-tuning the logistic regression coefficients using multiple data splits of the Canadian cohort. Missing data was handled with multiple imputation, and prediction ability was assessed with C-indices. C-index values > 0.7 were deemed to reflect helpful prediction.

Results

Overall, 81% of evaluable patients did not achieve remission off medications, 15% experienced a severe disease course, and 38% reported disability (CHAQ score > 0). The Nordic model for predicting non-achievement of remission had a C-index of 0.68 (95% CI 0.62–0.74), and 0.74 (0.67–0.80) after fine-tuning. For prediction of severe disease course, it had a C-index of 0.69 (0.61–0.78), and 0.79 (0.68–0.91) after fine-tuning. The fine-tuned Nordic model identified 85% of the cohort as low risk for a severe disease course (< 20% chance) and 7% as high risk (> 60% chance). The Nordic model to predict functional disability had a C-index of 0.57 (0.50–0.63), and 0.51 (0.39–0.63) after fine-tuning.

Conclusions

Fine-tuned Nordic models, combining active joint count, physician global assessment of disease activity, morning stiffness, and ankle involvement, predicted well non-achievement of remission and severe disease course in Canadian patients with JIA. The Nordic model for predicting disability could not predict functional disability in Canadian patients.

Validation of prediction models of severe disease course and non-achievement of remission in juvenile idiopathic arthritis: part 1-results of the Canadian model in the Nordic cohort

Background

Models to predict disease course and long-term outcome based on clinical characteristics at disease onset may guide early treatment strategies in juvenile idiopathic arthritis (JIA). Before a prediction model can be recommended for use in clinical practice, it needs to be validated in a different cohort than the one used for building the model. The aim of the current study was to validate the predictive performance of the Canadian prediction model developed by Guzman et al. and the Nordic model derived from Rypdal et al. to predict severe disease course and non-achievement of remission in Nordic patients with JIA.

Methods

The Canadian and Nordic multivariable logistic regression models were evaluated in the Nordic JIA cohort for prediction of non-achievement of remission, and the data-driven outcome denoted severe disease course. A total of 440 patients in the Nordic cohort with a baseline visit and an 8-year visit were included. The Canadian prediction model was first externally validated exactly as published. Both the Nordic and Canadian models were subsequently evaluated with repeated fine-tuning of model coefficients in training sets and testing in disjoint validation sets. The predictive performances of the models were assessed with receiver operating characteristic curves and C-indices. A model with a C-index above 0.7 was considered useful for clinical prediction.

Results

The Canadian prediction model had excellent predictive ability and was comparable in performance to the Nordic model in predicting severe disease course in the Nordic JIA cohort. The Canadian model yielded a C-index of 0.85 (IQR 0.83–0.87) for prediction of severe disease course and a C-index of 0.66 (0.63–0.68) for prediction of non-achievement of remission when applied directly. The median C-indices after fine-tuning were 0.85 (0.80–0.89) and 0.69 (0.65–0.73), respectively. Internal validation of the Nordic model for prediction of severe disease course resulted in a median C-index of 0.90 (0.86–0.92).

Conclusions

External validation of the Canadian model and internal validation of the Nordic model with severe disease course as outcome confirm their predictive abilities. Our findings suggest that predicting long-term remission is more challenging than predicting severe disease course.

Predicting disease outcomes in juvenile idiopathic arthritis: challenges, evidence, and new directions

The aims of treating juvenile idiopathic arthritis are to elicit treatment response toward remission, while preventing future flares. Understanding patient and disease characteristics that predispose young people with this condition to these outcomes would allow the forecasting of disease process and the tailoring of therapies. The strongest predictor of remission is disease category, particularly oligoarthritis, although a few additional clinical predictors of treatment response have been identified. Novel evidence using biomarkers, such as S100 proteins and novel single nucleotide polymorphism data, could add value to clinical models. The future aim of personalised medicine in the treatment of juvenile idiopathic arthritis will be aided with international collaborations, allowing for the analysis of larger datasets with novel biomarker data. Combined clinical and biomarker panels will probably be required for predicting outcomes in such a complex disease.