Climate change and its impact on infectious diseases in Asia

Analyzing the impact of COVID-19 on seasonal infectious disease outbreak detection using hybrid SARIMAX-LSTM model

BACKGROUND

This study estimates the incidence of seasonal infectious diseases, including influenza, norovirus, severe fever with thrombocytopenia syndrome (SFTS), and tsutsugamushi disease, in the Republic of Korea from 2005 to 2023. It also examines the impact of the COVID-19 pandemic on their transmission patterns.

METHODS

We employed the Seasonal AutoRegressive Integrated Moving Average with eXogenous variables (SARIMAX) model, long short-term memory (LSTM) neural networks, and a hybrid SARIMAX-LSTM model to predict disease incidence and identify outbreak periods. Meteorological data were incorporated into the models, and change point detection (CPD) was used to identify shifts in outbreak trends. Model predictions were compared with actual data to evaluate the influence of COVID-19 on disease incidence.

RESULTS

The incidence of influenza and norovirus was significantly affected by COVID-19, whereas SFTS and tsutsugamushi disease showed no substantial changes. Influenza did not return to pre-pandemic levels post-COVID-19, while norovirus incidence reverted to previous patterns. Despite a decrease in influenza-like illness (ILI) cases during the pandemic, predictive models indicated a potential resurgence of outbreaks.

CONCLUSIONS

These findings highlight the need for tailored public health strategies for each disease. Early detection and timely interventions are essential for reducing healthcare burdens and improving health outcomes.

Mapping climate change interaction with human health through DPSIR framework: Qatar perspective

This study investigates the interactions between climate change and human health with a particular focus on Qatar, using the DPSIR (Driving Forces, Pressures, States, Impacts, Responses) framework. Key drivers, including economic development and population growth, contribute to increased greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions, exerting pressure on Qatar's climate through rising temperatures and altered precipitation patterns, as modeled by the MIT Regional Climate Model (MRCM). The findings reveal critical gaps in understanding the state of climate-health interactions, including insufficient disease data, incomplete climate-health linkages, and significant research gaps. These limitations hinder targeted responses to climate-sensitive diseases, which have shown an increase over the years. The study identifies the pathways through which climatic shifts contribute to immediate health risks, such as heat-related illnesses and respiratory conditions, as well as long-term impacts, including chronic diseases and mental health challenges. Despite Qatar's efforts through national and international strategies, the DPSIR analysis highlights the urgent need for enhanced research, improved data collection, and tailored actions to address these challenges. Strengthened adaptation, resilience-building, and emission reduction strategies remain essential for safeguarding public health in the face of accelerating climate change.

Identification of climate-sensitive disease incidences in vietnam: A longitudinal retrospective analysis of infectious disease rates between 2014 and 2022

Objective

There is a growing correlation between the rise in infectious diseases and climate change; however, little is known about the interactions and mixed effects of climate factors on infectious diseases.

Method

We conducted a retrospective longitudinal study spanning 108 consecutive months from 2014 to 2022 in Can Tho, Vietnam to identify common infectious diseases (excluding tuberculosis, HIV, and COVID-19) and their associations with climate change and determine which common diseases presented concurrently with the COVID-19 period using multivariate linear regression, receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curve analysis, Bayesian kernel machine regression (BKMR) and orthogonal partial least squares discriminant analysis.

Result

The five infectious diseases with the highest average incidence rates per 100,000 people were diarrhea; hand, foot, and mouth disease (HFMD); dengue fever; viral hepatitis; and influenza. Positive associations with humidity were observed for dengue fever and HFMD. Temperature was positively associated with malaria. Negative associations were found between humidity and both chickenpox and tetanus. Diarrhea (AUC = 0.79; 95 % CL = 0.70-0.87) and dengue fever (AUC = 0.74; 95 % CL = 0.62-0.83) emerged as the most influential diseases both before and during the COVID-19 period. In our BKMR analysis, we found a significant association between the combined influence of temperature and humidity and the occurrence of dengue fever and HFMD, especially when all climate factors were at or above their 60th percentile relative to their values at the 50th percentile. Temperature emerged as the primary driver associated with the occurrence of infectious diseases.

Conclusion

These findings underscore the importance of implementing robust surveillance, prevention, and control measures by public health authorities in Can Tho. Initiatives like vaccination campaigns, vector control programs, public education on hygiene practices, and strengthening healthcare infrastructure are crucial for mitigating the spread of infectious diseases and safeguarding public health in the region.

Harnessing street shade to mitigate heat stress: An in-situ parallel investigation under extreme heat conditions in tropical Singapore

In the face of global rising temperatures and excessive urban heat, developing effective heat mitigation strategies has become increasingly urgent. Street shade, a typical cooling shelter for urban dwellers, has been primarily investigated for outdoor thermal comfort but not extensively under extreme heat conditions. This study explores the cooling efficacy of diverse street shade types in mitigating urban heat, thereby facilitating cities and their residents' adaptation to climatic shifts. We conducted in-situ measurements during an extremely hot afternoon, measuring thermal and visual environments across 20 pairs of parallel sites (sunlit vs. shaded) in a high-density district of tropical Singapore. Subsequently, we analyzed thermal comfort, represented by the Universal Thermal Comfort Index (UTCI), heat stress risks, and view factors of the sky, greenery, and buildings, and their interaction with heat stress relief. Our findings highlight three key points: Firstly, all street shade types improved outdoor thermal conditions, with average decreases of 0.8 °C in air temperature, 10.0 °C in mean radiant temperature, and 3.1 °C in UTCI. Secondly, street shade generally reduced heat stress severity by 20 % in the 'very strong heat stress' category and 12 % in the 'strong heat stress' category. Thirdly, the cooling efficacy of street shade was not solely dependent on changes in any single view factor. The results demonstrate the significant cooling benefits provided by street shade during extreme heat conditions. This study not only underscores the crucial role of street shade in mitigating heat stress but also offers valuable guidance to urban planners and designers in creating more liveable, sustainable, and climate-adaptive cities.

Triple planetary crisis: why healthcare professionals should care

Humanity currently faces an ecological crisis with devastating consequences to all living species. While climate change is estimated to lead to 250,000 extra deaths per year between 2030 and 2050, pollution is known to cause 9 million premature deaths: a figure much greater than the deaths caused by AIDS, tuberculosis and malaria combined. The healthcare sector is both burdened by, and contributes to, the impact of climate change and environmental degradation. Amidst glaring evidence of the interdependence of human health and the eco system, there is an urgent call for healthcare professionals to concern themselves with the triple planetary threat humanity currently faces. Without immediate mitigative measures, the future seems uncertain. Some healthcare systems at local, national and global levels have taken numerous initiatives to address, mitigate and adapt to these changes, however, these are not sufficient. A lack of awareness among healthcare professionals of the ecological crisis, its interconnectedness, and the role of healthcare in it, plays a significant role in the lack responsibility of healthcare professionals in this space. Therefore, this paper presents a discussion of the current landscape of the triple threat of climate change, loss of biodiversity, and pollution, while emphasising the contribution of healthcare professionals to it. Furthermore, interrelated concepts such as planetary health and eco-anxiety are briefly discussed. This perspective paper also presents several key prospective research areas that may lay the foundation for motivating healthcare professionals to play an active role in preventing and mitigating the ecological crises humanity currently faces.