Vegetation Dynamics and Food Security against the Background of Ecological Restoration in Hubei Province, China

A series of ecological restoration projects have been proposed to solve ecological problems resulting from human activities. The project of returning farmlands to forests, initiated in 1999, was the most widely implemented ecological restoration project in China. Large amounts of cropland with steep slopes have been converted to forests or grasslands to promote vegetation restoration, reduce soil erosion, and control nonpoint source pollution. Therefore, identifying the dynamics of vegetation and food security is crucial for further decision making. Based on the mean normalized difference vegetation index (NDVI) and grain yield data, this study explored the vegetation dynamics and food security of Hubei Province against the background of ecological restoration. The results show that, on a whole, the NDVI significantly increased from 2000 to 2018. The spatial agglomeration of the NDVI decreased between 2000 and 2008 and then increased from 2009 onwards. High-high NDVI agglomerations were more concentrated in mountainous areas. Food security was not threatened, and the grain yield in Hubei Province and most of the cities exhibited significant upward trends, as a whole. The change trend of the grain yield was not stable during the period from 2000 to 2018. The grain yield for Hubei Province and almost all of the cities decreased during the first 5 to 11 years, probably due to the sharp decrease in the sloping cropland areas against the background of ecological restoration. Grain yield was more sensitive and had a longer downward trend in regions with steeper slopes. Increasing trends in grain yield were detected during the last 6 to 10 years for most of the cities, and this can mainly be attributed to the newly added croplands that were created from land with other kinds of land uses, the increase in grain productivity, and strict cropland protection policies. The project of returning farmlands to forests is suggested as a long-term policy from the perspective of ecological restoration, and effective measures should also be continuously taken to maintain grain production and food security.

Species richness, relative abundance and occupancy of ground-dwelling mammals denote the ineffectiveness of chimpanzee as flagship species

In conservation biology, flagship species are defined as species that can raise support for biodiversity conservation in a given place or social context. In the newly established Gishwati–Mukura National Park in Rwanda, the Eastern chimpanzee was considered such an ambassador. To test whether the flagship species concept was effective in the park, we studied species richness, relative abundance, and species distribution (occupancy) of medium- to large-sized, ground-dwelling mammals using camera trapping technology. The impact of three environmental and three anthropogenic variables on species distribution was investigated and the ecological diversity of the fauna in the national park assessed. Over a period of 9 months, two 4 × 4 camera trapping grids were deployed in Gishwati and Mukura Forest. Sampling effort in each forest equated to 32 and 29 camera trapping locations, yielding 258 and 242 independent photographic events of eight and six species, respectively. In both forests, the Emin's giant poached rat was the most frequently encountered species, while all other species showed high relative abundance only in Gishwati Forest. The relative abundance of the endangered Eastern chimpanzee in Gishwati Forest was 0.54, the estimated occupancy was 0.31. Single-species, single-season occupancy models revealed that forest cover, altitude and distance to forest edge influenced the detectability of L'Hoest's monkey and squirrel species, while no effect was found on their occupancy. Notably, no larger herbivore or carnivore species were observed in the park, while the flagship species, i.e., the Eastern chimpanzee, was relatively abundant. Moreover, in both forests, all detected carnivores were small- to medium-sized, suggesting a meso-predator release phenomenon, i.e., populations of medium-sized predators increased after the removal of larger, top carnivores, due to relaxed competition. It appears that the prioritization of the flagship species resulted in the neglect of other mammalian species, leading eventually into the demise of entire functional guilds. Based on these results, the Gishwati–Mukura NP was categorized as a ‘depleted forest’. We, therefore, strongly object chimpanzees as a suitable flagship species—at least in the Gishwati–Mukura NP—and recommend collating more knowledge on the release of meso-predators and the loss of forest ungulates to improve their future conservation in Afro-montane forest habitats.

Higher Maximum Temperature Increases the Frequency of Water Drinking in Mountain Gorillas (Gorilla beringei beringei)

Water plays a vital role in many aspects of sustaining life, including thermoregulation. Given that increasing temperatures and more extreme weather events due to climate change are predicted to influence water availability, understanding how species obtain and use water is critical. This is especially true for endangered species in small isolated populations which are vulnerable to drought and the risk of extinction. We examined the relationship between the frequency of water drinking and maximum temperature and rainfall in 21 groups of wild gorillas from the two mountain gorilla populations (Bwindi and Virunga), between 2010 and 2020. In both populations, we found that the frequency of water drinking significantly increased at higher maximum temperatures than cooler ones, but we found no consistent relationship between water drinking and rainfall. We also found that Virunga gorillas relied more on foods with higher water content than Bwindi gorillas, which in part likely explains why they drink water much less frequently. These findings highlight that even in rainforest mammals that gain most of their water requirements from food, access to free-standing water may be important because it likely facilitates evaporative cooling in response to thermoregulatory stress. These results have important implications for conservation and behavior of mountain gorillas in the face of continued increases in temperature and frequency of extreme weather events associated with climate change.

Sources and Sectoral Trend Analysis of CO2 Emissions Data in Nigeria Using a Modified Mann-Kendall and Change Point Detection Approaches

In Nigeria, the high dependence on fossil fuels for energy generation and utilization in various sectors of the economy has resulted in the emission of a large quantity of carbon dioxide (CO2), which is one of the criteria gaseous pollutants that is frequently encountered in the environment. The high quantity of CO2 has adverse implications on human health and serious damaging effects on the environment. In this study, multi-decade (1971–2014) CO2-emissions data for Nigeria were obtained from the World Development Indicator (WDI). The data were disaggregated into various emission sources: gaseous fuel consumption (GFC), liquid fuel consumption (LFC), solid fuel consumption (SFC), transport (TRA), electricity and heat production (EHP), residential buildings and commercial and public services (RSCPS), manufacturing industries and construction (MINC), and other sectors excluding residential buildings and commercial and public services (OSEC). The analysis was conducted for a sectorial trend using a rank-based non-parametric modified Mann–Kendall (MK) statistical approach and a change point detection method. The results showed that the CO2 emissions from TRA were significantly high, followed by LFC. The GFC, LFC, EHP, and OSEC had a positive Sen’s slope, while SFC, TRA, and MINC had a negative Sen’s slope. The trend analysis indicated multiple changes for TRA and OSEC, while other sources had a change point at a particular year. These results are useful for knowledge of CO2-emission sources in Nigeria and for future understanding of the trend of its emission for proper environmental planning. The severe effects of CO2 on the atmospheric environment of Nigeria may be worsened in the future due to some major sources such as transportation services and electricity generation that are inevitable for enviable standard of living in an urban setting.

The Relationship between Climate Change, Variability, and Food Security: Understanding the Impacts and Building Resilient Food Systems in West Pokot County, Kenya

This study integrated local and scientific knowledge to assess the impacts of climate change and variability on food security in West Pokot County, Kenya from 1980–2012. It characterized rainfall and temperature from 1980–2011 and the phenology of agricultural vegetation, assessed land use and land cover (LULC) changes, and surveyed local knowledge and perceptions of the relationships between climate change and variability, land use decisions, and food (in)security. The 124 respondents were aware of long-term changes in their environment, with 68% strongly believing that climate has become more variable. The majority of the respondents (88%) reported declining rainfall and rising temperatures, with respondents in the lowland areas reporting shortened growing seasons that affected food production. Meteorological data for 1980–2011 confirmed high inter-annual rainfall variability around the mean value of 973.4 mm/yr but with no notable trend. Temperature data showed an increasing trend between 1980 and 2012 with lowlands and highlands showing changes of +1.25 °C and +1.29 °C, respectively. Land use and land cover changes between 1984 and 2010 showed cropland area increased by +4176% (+33,138 ha), while grassland and forest areas declined by –49% (–96,988 ha) and –38% (–65,010 ha), respectively. These area changes illustrate human-mediated responses to the rainfall variability, such as increased stocking after good rainfall years and crop area expansion. The mean Normalized Difference Vegetation Index (NDVI) values ranged from 0.36–0.54 within a year, peaking in May and September. For weather-related planning, respondents relied on radio (64%) and traditional forecasters (26%) as predominant information sources. Supporting continuous climate change monitoring, intensified early warning systems, and disseminating relevant information to farmers could help farmers adopt appropriate adaptation strategies.

Trend Analysis of Temperature Data for the Narayani River Basin, Nepal

The study of spatiotemporal variation in temperature is vital to assess changes in climate, especially in the Himalayan region, where the livelihoods of billions of people living downstream depends on water coming from the melting of snow and glacier ice. To this end, temperature trend analysis is carried out in the Narayani River basin, a major river basin of Nepal, characterized by three climatic regions: tropical, subtropical and alpine. Temperature data from six stations located within the basin were analyzed. The elevation of these stations ranges from 460 to 3800 m a.s.l. and the time period of available temperature data ranges from 1960–2015. Multiple regression and empirical mode decomposition (EMD) methods were applied to fill in missing data and to detect trends. Annual as well as seasonal trends were analyzed and a Mann–Kendall test was employed to test the statistical significance of detected trends. The results indicate significant cooling trends before 1970s, and warming trends after 1970s in the majority of the stations. The warming trends range from 0.028 to 0.035 °C year−1 with a mean increasing trend of 0.03 °C year−1 after 1971. Seasonal trends show the highest warming trends in the monsoon season, followed by winter and the premonsoon and postmonsoon season. However, the difference in warming rates between different seasons was not significant. An average temperature lapse rate of −0.006 °C m−1 with the steepest value (−0.0064 °C m−1) in the premonsoon season and the least negative (−0.0052 °C m−1) in the winter season was observed for this basin. A comparative analysis of the gap-filled data with freely available global climate dataset show reasonable correlation, thus confirming the suitability of the gap filling methods.

Trend Analysis of Temperature Data for Narayani River Basin, Nepal

Study of spatiotemporal dynamics of temperature is vital to assess changes in climate, especially in the Himalayan region where livelihoods of billions of people living downstream depends on water coming from the melting of snow and glacier ice. To this end, temperature trend analysis is carried out in Narayani river basin, a major river basin of Nepal characterized by three climatic regions: tropical, subtropical and alpine. Temperature data from six stations located within the basin were analyzed. The elevation of these stations ranges from 460 to 3800 m a.s.l. and the time period of available temperature data ranges from 1960–2015. Multiple regression and empirical mode decomposition (EMD) methods were applied to fill in missing data and to detect trends. Annual as well as seasonal trends were analyzed and a Mann-Kendall test was employed to test the statistical significance of detected trends. Results indicate significant cooling trends before 1970s, and warming trends after 1970s in the majority of the stations. The warming trends range from 0.028 ∘C year−1 to 0.035 ∘C year−1 with a mean increasing trend of 0.03 ∘C year−1 after 1971. Seasonal trends show highest warming trends in the monsoon season followed by winter, pre-monsoon, and the post-monsoon season. However, difference in warming rates between different seasons was not significant. An average temperature lapse rate of −0.006 ∘C m−1 with the steepest value (−0.0064 ∘C m−1) in pre-monsoon season and least negative (−0.0052 ∘C m−1) in winter season was observed for this basin. A comparative analysis of the gap-filled data with freely available global climate datasets show reasonable correlation thus confirming the suitability of the gap filling methods.

Trend Analysis of Temperature Data for Narayani River Basin, Nepal

Study of spatiotemporal dynamics of temperature is vital to assess changes in climate, especially in the Himalayan region where livelihoods of billions of people living downstream depends on water coming from the melting of snow and glacier ice. To this end, temperature trend analysis is carried out in Narayani river basin, a major river basin of Nepal characterized by three climatic regions: tropical, subtropical and alpine. Temperature data from six stations located within the basin were analyzed. The elevation of these stations ranges from 460 to 3800 m a.s.l. and the time period of available temperature data ranges from 1960–2015. Multiple regression and empirical mode decomposition (EMD) methods were applied to fill in missing data and to detect trends. Annual as well as seasonal trends were analyzed and a Mann-Kendall test was employed to test the statistical significance of detected trends. Results indicate significant cooling trends before 1970s, and warming trends after 1970s in the majority of the stations. The warming trends range from 0.028 °C year−1 to 0.035 °C year−1 with a mean increasing trend of 0.03 °C year−1 after 1971. Seasonal trends show highest warming trends in the monsoon season followed by winter, pre-monsoon, and the post-monsoon season. However, difference in warming rates between different seasons was not significant. An average temperature lapse rate of −0.006 °C m−1 with the steepest value (−0.0064 °C m−1) in pre-monsoon season and least negative (−0.0052 °C m−1) in winter season was observed for this basin. A comparative analysis of the gap-filled data with freely available global climate datasets shows reasonable correlation thus confirming the suitability of the gap filling methods.

Solar Irradiance and Temperature Variability and Projected Trends Analysis in Burundi

This paper assessed the variability and projected trends of solar irradiance and temperature in the East of Burundi. Observed temperature from meteorological stations and the MERRA-2 data set provided by NASA/Goddard Space Flight Center are used over the historical period 1976–2005. In addition, solar irradiance data provided by SoDa database were considered. Furthermore, projection data from eight Regional Climate Models were used over the periods 2026–2045 and 2066–2085. The variability analysis was performed using a standardized index. Projected trends and changes in the future climate were respectively detected through Mann-Kendall and t-tests. The findings over the historical period revealed increase temperature and decrease in solar irradiance over the last decades of the 20th century. At a monthly scale, the variability analysis showed that excesses in solar irradiance coincide with the dry season, which led to the conclusion that it may be a period of high production for solar energy. In the future climate, upward trends in temperature are expected over the two future periods, while no significant trends are forecasted in solar irradiance over the entire studied region. However, slight decreases and significant changes in solar irradiance have been detected over all regions.

Social and ecological factors alter stress physiology of Virunga mountain gorillas (Gorilla beringei beringei)

Living in a rapidly changing environment can alter stress physiology at the population level, with negative impacts on health, reproductive rates, and mortality that may ultimately result in species decline. Small, isolated animal populations where genetic diversity is low are at particular risks, such as endangered Virunga mountain gorillas (Gorilla beringei beringei). Along with climate change-associated environmental shifts that are affecting the entire population, subpopulations of the Virunga gorillas have recently experienced extreme changes in their social environment. As the growing population moves closer to the forest's carrying capacity, the gorillas are coping with rising population density, increased frequencies of interactions between social units, and changing habitat use (e.g., more overlapping home ranges and routine ranging at higher elevations). Using noninvasive monitoring of fecal glucocorticoid metabolites (FGM) on 115 habituated Virunga gorillas, we investigated how social and ecological variation are related to baseline FGM levels, to better understand the adaptive capacity of mountain gorillas and monitor potential physiological indicators of population decline risks. Generalized linear mixed models revealed elevated mean monthly baseline FGM levels in months with higher rainfall and higher mean maximum and minimum temperature, suggesting that Virunga gorillas might be sensitive to predicted warming and rainfall trends involving longer, warmer dry seasons and more concentrated and extreme rainfall occurrences. Exclusive use of smaller home range areas was linked to elevated baseline FGM levels, which may reflect reduced feeding efficiency and increased travel efforts to actively avoid neighboring groups. The potential for additive effects of stress-inducing factors could have short- and long-term impacts on the reproduction, health, and ultimately survival of the Virunga gorilla population. The ongoing effects of environmental changes and population dynamics must be closely monitored and used to develop effective long-term conservation strategies that can help address these risk factors.

Modal analysis of annual runoff volume and sediment load in the Yangtze river-lake system for the period 1956-2013

This study focuses on detecting trends in annual runoff volume and sediment load in the Yangtze river-lake system. Times series of annual runoff volume and sediment load at 19 hydrological gauging stations for the period 1956-2013 were collected. Based on the Mann-Kendall test at the 1% significance level, annual sediment loads in the Yangtze River, the Dongting Lake and the Poyang Lake were detected with significantly descending trends. The power spectrum estimation indicated predominant oscillations with periods of 8 and 20 years are embedded in the runoff volume series, probably related to the El Niño Southern Oscillation (2-7 years) and Pacific Decadal Oscillation (20-30 years). Based on dominant components (capturing more than roughly 90% total energy) extracted by the proper orthogonal decomposition method, total change ratios of runoff volume and sediment load during the last 58 years were evaluated. For sediment load, the mean CRT value in the Yangtze River is about -65%, and those in the Dongting Lake and the Poyang Lake are -92.2% and -87.9% respectively. Particularly, the CRT value of the sediment load in the channel inflow of the Dongting Lake is even -99.7%. The Three Gorges Dam has intercepted a large amount of sediment load and decreased the sediment load downstream.

How to Regenerate and Protect Desert Riparian Populus euphratica Forest in Arid Areas

We found that the most suitable flooding disturbance model for regenerating Populus euphratica forest was two to three times per year with a duration of 15-20 days and an intensity of 25-30 m(3)/s. The flooding should take place during the seed emergence to young tree growth stages, and should be based on flooding experiments and data from vegetation quadrats and ecological water conveyance. Furthermore, we found that tree-ring width index for P. euphratica declined as the groundwater depth increased, and ascertained that the minimum groundwater depths for young trees, near-mature trees, mature trees and over-mature trees were 4.0 m, 5.0-5.4 m, 6.9 m and 7.8 m, respectively. These were derived from a quantitative relationship model between groundwater depth and tree-ring width index. The range for ecological water conveyance volume was 311-320 million m(3) in the lower reaches of the Tarim River. This study not only provides a technical basis for sustainable ecological water conveyance in the Tarim River Basin, but also offers a theoretical guide and scientific information that could be used in similar areas to regenerate and protect Populus euphratica around the world.