Incidence of Newly Diagnosed Type 1 Diabetes Mellitus in Children and Adolescents in Henan Province of China from 2017 to 2020: A Retrospective Multicenter Study Based on Hospitalization Data

Global type 1 diabetes prevalence, incidence, and mortality estimates 2025: Results from the International diabetes Federation Atlas, 11th Edition, and the T1D Index Version 3.0

AIMS

Globally, symptomatic type 1 diabetes (T1D) prevalence varies markedly. The International Diabetes Federation 11thEdition Atlas/T1D Index Version 3.0 estimated 2025 numbers for 202 countries/territories ("countries"), and projected to2040.

METHODS

The T1D Index model, a Markov model with sub-models for incidence-over-time, adult incidence, and mortality-over-time, was updated with recent population-based T1D incidence, mortality and prevalence studies. For countries without studies, data were extrapolated from countries with similarsettings.

RESULTS

There are estimated 9.5 million people living with T1D globally (compared to 8.4 million in 2021, a 13 % increase), with 1.0 million of these aged 0-14, and 0.8 million aged 15-19 years. In lower-income countries, prevalent cases increased by 20 % from 1.8 million in 2021 to 2.1 million in 2025. Incident cases in 2025 are an estimated 513,000 (164,000 aged 0-14 and 58,000 aged 15-19 years), with incidence increasing by 2.4 % in the last year. Premature deaths are estimated at 174,000, with 17.2 % of these due to non-diagnosis soon after clinical onset. The estimated remaining life expectancy of a 10-year-old child diagnosed with T1D in 2025 varies between countries from 6 to 66 years. There are still no data available for 119 countries. The projectedT1D population for 2040 is estimated to be14.7 million.

CONCLUSIONS

The number of global T1D cases is rising quickly, especially in lower-income settings, due to increasing diagnosed incidence, falling mortality and ageing, and population growth. Contemporary data are unavailable for over 50% of all countries, highlighting need for epidemiological studies.

Incidence of type 1 diabetes in Gansu Province, Northwest China from 2018 to 2022: a multicenter, hospitalization-based study

OBJECTIVE

To survey the epidemiology of type 1 diabetes in all age groups living in the Gansu Province, China during 2018-2022.

METHODS

Using the data from the Gansu Province Health Commission Information Center and medical records, the crude incidence and 95%CI were calculated by region, age group, and sex assuming a Poisson distribution. The incidence differences were evaluated using the χ2 test. Spearman correlation was used to analyze the relation between latitude and incidence. The seasonality was analyzed using concentration, seasonal index and circular distribution method.

RESULTS

1393 cases of newly diagnosed type 1 diabetes were ascertained. The crude incidence of type 1 diabetes per 100,000 person-years in all individuals in Gansu Province was 1.09(95% confidence interval 1.03 to 1.15). The estimated incidence per 100,000 person-years by age group was 1.39 (95%CI:1.24-1.54) for 0-14 years, 3.58 (95%CI:3.33-3.83) for 15-29 years, 0.33(95%CI:0.29-0.37) for ≥ 30 years, with a peak in age group 15-19 years. There was a difference between males and females. Incidence of type 1 diabetes in Gansu Province was strongly correlated with latitude among children aged 0-29 years, and all age groups, but such correlation was not observed in adults aged ≥ 30 years. The seasonality of the type 1 diabetes is not obvious.

CONCLUSION

The incidence of type 1 diabetes was relatively lower from 2018 to 2022 in Gansu Province, with variations across different regions and a positive correlation with latitude observed in all age groups. The incidence peak was noted in the 15-19 years group, and the incidence among males was higher than in females in all age groups. There was no significant seasonal variation in the incidence of type 1 diabetes.

[Risk factors for ketoacidosis in children/adolescents with type 1 diabetes mellitus and establishment of a predictive model]

OBJECTIVES

To investigate the risk factors for diabetic ketoacidosis (DKA) in children/adolescents with type 1 diabetes mellitus (T1DM) and to establish a model for predicting the risk of DKA.

METHODS

A retrospective analysis was performed on 217 children/adolescents with T1DM who were admitted to General Hospital of Ningxia Medical University from January 2018 to December 2021. Among the 217 children/adolescents,169 cases with DKA were included as the DKA group and 48 cases without DKA were included as the non-DKA group. The risk factors for DKA in the children/adolescents with T1DM were analyzed, and a nomogram model was established for predicting the risk of DKA in children/adolescents with T1DM.

RESULTS

For the 217 children/adolescents with T1DM, the incidence rate of DKA was 77.9% (169/217). The multivariate logistic regression analysis showed that high levels of random blood glucose, hemoglobin A1c (HbA1c), blood ketone body, and triglyceride on admission were closely associated with the development of DKA in the children/adolescents with T1DM (OR=1.156, 3.2031015, 20.131, and 9.519 respectively; P<0.05). The nomogram prediction model had a C-statistic of 0.95, with a mean absolute error of 0.004 between the risk of DKA predicted by the nomogram model and the actual risk of DKA, indicating that the model had a good overall prediction ability.

CONCLUSIONS

High levels of random blood glucose, HbA1c, blood ketone body, and triglyceride on admission are closely associated with the development of DKA in children/adolescents with T1DM, and targeted intervention measures should be developed to reduce the risk of DKA.

Incidence of Childhood Type 1 Diabetes in Beijing During 2011-2020 and Predicted Incidence for 2025-2035: A Multicenter, Hospitalization-Based Study

INTRODUCTION

China has a low incidence of type 1 diabetes mellitus (T1DM); however, based on the large population, the absolute numbers are high. Our aim was to assess the incidence of childhood T1DM in Beijing during 2011-2020, predicted incidence for 2025-2035, and to determine the incidence of diabetic ketosis or diabetic ketoacidosis (DK/DKA) in this population.

METHODS

Data on patients aged less than 15 years of age with newly diagnosed T1DM between January 1, 2011 and December 31, 2020 was obtained from five tertiary hospitals in Beijing and retrospectively analyzed.

RESULTS

In all, 636 children aged less than 15 years were diagnosed with T1DM during 2011-2020. The incidence of T1DM was 3.11-5.46 per 100,000 per year, with an average increase of 5.10% per year. The age-specific incidence for ages 0-4 years, 5-9 years, and 10-14 years was 2.97, 4.69, and 4.68 per 100,000 per year, respectively. The highest average annual increase (7.07%) in incidence was for the youngest age group. DK or DKA was present at the time of diagnosis of T1DM in 84.6% of patients. The age-specific incidence of T1DM among children aged less than 15 years was predicted to be 7.32, 11.4, and 11.52 per 100,000 in 2035 for ages 0-4 years, 5-9 years, and 10-14 years, respectively.

CONCLUSIONS

The was a gentle increase in the incidence of childhood T1DM during 2011-2020 in Beijing. This increase is expected to continue for the next 15 years.