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Kraemer MUG, Yang CH, Gutierrez B, Wu CH, Klein B, Pigott DM, du Plessis L, Faria NR, Li R, Hanage WP, Brownstein JS, Layan M, Vespignani A, Tian H, Dye C, Pybus OG, Scarpino SV. The effect of human mobility and control measures on the COVID-19 epidemic in China. Science 2020. [PMID: 32213647 DOI: 10.1126/science:abb4218] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [MESH Headings] [Grants] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Indexed: 05/04/2023]
Abstract
The ongoing coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) outbreak expanded rapidly throughout China. Major behavioral, clinical, and state interventions were undertaken to mitigate the epidemic and prevent the persistence of the virus in human populations in China and worldwide. It remains unclear how these unprecedented interventions, including travel restrictions, affected COVID-19 spread in China. We used real-time mobility data from Wuhan and detailed case data including travel history to elucidate the role of case importation in transmission in cities across China and to ascertain the impact of control measures. Early on, the spatial distribution of COVID-19 cases in China was explained well by human mobility data. After the implementation of control measures, this correlation dropped and growth rates became negative in most locations, although shifts in the demographics of reported cases were still indicative of local chains of transmission outside of Wuhan. This study shows that the drastic control measures implemented in China substantially mitigated the spread of COVID-19.
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Affiliation(s)
- Moritz U G Kraemer
- Department of Zoology, University of Oxford, Oxford, UK.
- Harvard Medical School, Harvard University, Boston, MA, USA
- Boston Children's Hospital, Boston, MA, USA
| | - Chia-Hung Yang
- Network Science Institute, Northeastern University, Boston, MA, USA
| | - Bernardo Gutierrez
- Department of Zoology, University of Oxford, Oxford, UK
- School of Biological and Environmental Sciences, Universidad San Francisco de Quito USFQ, Quito, Ecuador
| | - Chieh-Hsi Wu
- Mathematical Sciences, University of Southampton, Southampton, UK
| | - Brennan Klein
- Network Science Institute, Northeastern University, Boston, MA, USA
| | - David M Pigott
- Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation, Department of Health Metrics, University of Washington, Seattle, WA, USA
| | | | - Nuno R Faria
- Department of Zoology, University of Oxford, Oxford, UK
| | - Ruoran Li
- Harvard T.H. Chan School of Public Health, Boston, MA, USA
| | | | - John S Brownstein
- Harvard Medical School, Harvard University, Boston, MA, USA
- Boston Children's Hospital, Boston, MA, USA
| | - Maylis Layan
- Mathematical Modelling of Infectious Diseases Unit, Institut Pasteur, UMR2000, CNRS, Paris, France
- Sorbonne Université, Paris, France
| | - Alessandro Vespignani
- Network Science Institute, Northeastern University, Boston, MA, USA
- ISI Foundation, Turin, Italy
| | - Huaiyu Tian
- State Key Laboratory of Remote Sensing Science, College of Global Change and Earth System Science, Beijing Normal University, Beijing, China
| | | | - Oliver G Pybus
- Department of Zoology, University of Oxford, Oxford, UK.
- Department of Pathobiology and Population Sciences, The Royal Veterinary College, London, UK
| | - Samuel V Scarpino
- Network Science Institute, Northeastern University, Boston, MA, USA.
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Kraemer MUG, Yang CH, Gutierrez B, Wu CH, Klein B, Pigott DM, du Plessis L, Faria NR, Li R, Hanage WP, Brownstein JS, Layan M, Vespignani A, Tian H, Dye C, Pybus OG, Scarpino SV. The effect of human mobility and control measures on the COVID-19 epidemic in China. Science 2020; 368:493-497. [PMID: 32213647 DOI: 10.5281/zenodo.3714914] [Citation(s) in RCA: 1] [Impact Index Per Article: 0.3] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [MESH Headings] [Grants] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 03/03/2020] [Accepted: 03/23/2020] [Indexed: 05/21/2023]
Abstract
The ongoing coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) outbreak expanded rapidly throughout China. Major behavioral, clinical, and state interventions were undertaken to mitigate the epidemic and prevent the persistence of the virus in human populations in China and worldwide. It remains unclear how these unprecedented interventions, including travel restrictions, affected COVID-19 spread in China. We used real-time mobility data from Wuhan and detailed case data including travel history to elucidate the role of case importation in transmission in cities across China and to ascertain the impact of control measures. Early on, the spatial distribution of COVID-19 cases in China was explained well by human mobility data. After the implementation of control measures, this correlation dropped and growth rates became negative in most locations, although shifts in the demographics of reported cases were still indicative of local chains of transmission outside of Wuhan. This study shows that the drastic control measures implemented in China substantially mitigated the spread of COVID-19.
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Affiliation(s)
- Moritz U G Kraemer
- Department of Zoology, University of Oxford, Oxford, UK.
- Harvard Medical School, Harvard University, Boston, MA, USA
- Boston Children's Hospital, Boston, MA, USA
| | - Chia-Hung Yang
- Network Science Institute, Northeastern University, Boston, MA, USA
| | - Bernardo Gutierrez
- Department of Zoology, University of Oxford, Oxford, UK
- School of Biological and Environmental Sciences, Universidad San Francisco de Quito USFQ, Quito, Ecuador
| | - Chieh-Hsi Wu
- Mathematical Sciences, University of Southampton, Southampton, UK
| | - Brennan Klein
- Network Science Institute, Northeastern University, Boston, MA, USA
| | - David M Pigott
- Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation, Department of Health Metrics, University of Washington, Seattle, WA, USA
| | | | - Nuno R Faria
- Department of Zoology, University of Oxford, Oxford, UK
| | - Ruoran Li
- Harvard T.H. Chan School of Public Health, Boston, MA, USA
| | | | - John S Brownstein
- Harvard Medical School, Harvard University, Boston, MA, USA
- Boston Children's Hospital, Boston, MA, USA
| | - Maylis Layan
- Mathematical Modelling of Infectious Diseases Unit, Institut Pasteur, UMR2000, CNRS, Paris, France
- Sorbonne Université, Paris, France
| | - Alessandro Vespignani
- Network Science Institute, Northeastern University, Boston, MA, USA
- ISI Foundation, Turin, Italy
| | - Huaiyu Tian
- State Key Laboratory of Remote Sensing Science, College of Global Change and Earth System Science, Beijing Normal University, Beijing, China
| | | | - Oliver G Pybus
- Department of Zoology, University of Oxford, Oxford, UK.
- Department of Pathobiology and Population Sciences, The Royal Veterinary College, London, UK
| | - Samuel V Scarpino
- Network Science Institute, Northeastern University, Boston, MA, USA.
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