Social autopsy of neonatal mortality suggests needed improvements in maternal and neonatal interventions in Balaka and Salima districts of Malawi

Social autopsy analysis of the determinants of neonatal and under-five mortalities in Nigeria, 2013-2018

Background

Nigeria suffers from one of the world’s highest child mortality rates, with about 900,000 deaths in a single year, despite being classified as a middle-income country. Over the past few years, substantial efforts have been made to reduce child mortality, with under-five mortality declining by 31.6% between 1990 and 2018. However, this decline is slower than needed to reduce child mortality significantly. This study presents the social autopsy component of the 2019 verbal and social autopsy (VASA) survey to provide an in-depth understanding of the social determinants of under-five mortality in Nigeria.

Methods

The study was a cross-sectional inquiry into the social determinants of neonatal and 1-59 months child deaths from the 2018 Nigeria Demographic and Health Survey (NDHS) weighted to represent the Nigerian population. The social autopsy survey asked about maternal care for neonates and 1-59 months children during the final illness.

Results

Child mortality in Nigeria in children aged 1-59 months is strongly associated with levels of wealth, place of residence, and maternal education. The association of these same socio-economic factors with neonatal mortality is weaker. While there were significant associations with wealth quintiles and geopolitical zones, higher maternal education was not significantly associated with lower neonatal death rates. Maternal complications in pregnancy and/or labour and delivery were common and strongly associated with stillbirths and deaths in the first two days. Severity scores at the inception of the illnesses did not show differences between children who only received informal care versus those who went to formal care providers. The main barriers to care were distance, cost, transport, and the need to travel at night, and these barriers were interlinked. More distant facilities usually required vehicle transport, which was expensive for low-income families. Travelling for an emergency at night was even more difficult in terms of finding and paying for transport and involving problems with insecurity and bad roads.

Conclusions

The family, community, and health system factors related to neonatal and 1-59 months child deaths in Nigeria were highlighted in this study. Deaths were commonly associated with numerous factors, each of which could contribute to the sequence of events resulting in a preventable death.

Using health facility deaths to estimate population causes of neonatal and child mortality in four African countries

BACKGROUND

Verbal autopsy is the main method used in countries with weak civil registration systems for estimating community causes of neonatal and 1-59-month-old deaths. However, validation studies of verbal autopsy methods are limited and assessment has been dependent on hospital-based studies, with uncertain implications for its validity in community settings. If the distribution of community deaths by cause was similar to that of facility deaths, or could be adjusted according to related demographic factors, then the causes of facility deaths could be used to estimate population causes.

METHODS

Causes of neonatal and 1-59-month-old deaths from verbal/social autopsy (VASA) surveys in four African countries were estimated using expert algorithms (EAVA) and physician coding (PCVA). Differences between facility and community deaths in individual causes and cause distributions were examined using chi-square and cause-specific mortality fractions (CSMF) accuracy, respectively. Multinomial logistic regression and random forest models including factors from the VASA studies that are commonly available in Demographic and Health Surveys were built to predict population causes from facility deaths.

RESULTS

Levels of facility and community deaths in the four countries differed for one to four of 10 EAVA or PCVA neonatal causes and zero to three of 12 child causes. CSMF accuracy for facility compared to community deaths in the four countries ranged from 0.74 to 0.87 for neonates and 0.85 to 0.95 for 1-59-month-olds. Crude CSMF accuracy in the prediction models averaged 0.86 to 0.88 for neonates and 0.93 for 1-59-month-olds. Adjusted random forest prediction models increased average CSMF accuracy for neonates to, at most, 0.90, based on small increases in all countries.

CONCLUSIONS

There were few differences in facility and community causes of neonatal and 1-59-month-old deaths in the four countries, and it was possible to project the population CSMF from facility deaths with accuracy greater than the validity of verbal autopsy diagnoses. Confirmation of these findings in additional settings would warrant research into how medical causes of deaths in a representative sample of health facilities can be utilized to estimate the population causes of child death.

Predicted effect of regionalised delivery care on neonatal mortality, utilisation, financial risk, and patient utility in Malawi: an agent-based modelling analysis

BACKGROUND

Health-care regionalisation, in which selected services are concentrated in higher-level facilities, has successfully improved the quality of complex medical care. However, the effectiveness of this strategy in routine maternal care is unknown. Malawi has established a national goal of halving its neonatal mortality by 2030. In this study, we aimed to assess the effect of obstetric service regionalisation in pregnant women and their newborn babies in Malawi.

METHODS

In this analysis, we assessed regionalisation through the use of an agent-based simulation model. We used a previously estimated utilisation function, incorporating both patient-specific and health-facility-specific characteristics, to inform patient choice. The model was validated against known utilisation patterns in Malawi. Four regionalisation scenarios were compared with the status quo: scenario 1 restricted deliveries to facilities currently capable of providing caesarean sections; scenario 2 had the same restrictions as scenario 1, but with selected facilities upgraded to provide caesarean sections; scenario 3 restricted delivery to facilities that provided five or more basic emergency obstetric and neonatal care services in the preceding 3 months; and scenario 4 had the same restrictions as scenario 3, but with selected facilities upgraded to provide at least five basic emergency obstetric and neonatal care services. We assessed neonatal mortality, utilisation, travel distance, median out-of-pocket expenditure, and proportion of women facing catastrophic expenditure. The effects of upgrading the obstetric readiness of all facilities, of removing all user fees, and of upgrading without restriction were considered in scenario analyses. Heterogeneity and parameter uncertainty were incorporated to create 95% posterior credible intervals (PCIs).

FINDINGS

Scenarios restricting women to give birth in facilities with caesarean section capabilities reduced neonatal mortality by 11·4 deaths per 1000 livebirths (scenario 1; 95% PCI 9·8-13·1) and 11·6 deaths per 1000 livebirths (scenario 2; 10·2-13·1), whereas scenarios restricting women to facilities that provided five or more basic emergency obstetric and neonatal care services did not affect neonatal mortality. Similarly, the caesarean section rate in Malawi, which is 4·6% under the status quo, was predicted to rise significantly in scenario 1 (14·7%, 95% PCI 14·5-14·9; p<0·0001) and scenario 2 (10·4%, 10·2-10·6; p<0·0001), but not in scenarios 3 and 4. Women were required to travel longer distances in scenario 1 (increase of 7·2 km, 95% PCI 4·5-9·9) and in scenario 2 (4·4 km, 1·5-7·2) than in the status quo (p<0·0001). Out-of-pocket costs tripled (p<0·0001; status quo vs scenario 1 and scenario 2), and the risk of catastrophic expenditure significantly increased from a baseline of 6·4% (95% PCI 6·1-6·6) to 14·7% (14·5-14·9) in scenario 1 and 11·3% (11·0-11·5) in scenario 2. This increase was especially pronounced among the poor (p<0·0001; status quo vs scenario 1 and scenario 2).

INTERPRETATION

Policies restricting women to give birth in facilities with caesarean section capabilities is likely to result in significant decreases in neonatal mortality and might allow Malawi to meet its goal of halving its neonatal mortality by 2030. However, this improvement comes at the cost of increased distances to care and worsening financial risks among women.

FUNDING

Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation, Damon Runyon Cancer Research Foundation.

Place of death, care-seeking and care pathway progression in the final illnesses of children under five years of age in sub-Saharan Africa: a systematic review

Background

Half of all under-5 deaths occur in sub-Saharan Africa. Reducing child mortality requires understanding of the modifiable factors that contribute to death. Social autopsies collect information about place of death, care-seeking and care-provision, but this has not been pooled to learn wider lessons. We therefore undertook a systematic review to collect, evaluate, map, and pool all the available evidence for sub-Saharan Africa.

Methods

We searched PubMed, Embase, Global Health, the Cochrane Library and grey literature for studies relating to under-5 deaths in sub-Saharan Africa with information on place of death and/or care-seeking during a child’s final illness. We assessed study quality with a modified Axis tool. We pooled proportions using random effects meta-analysis for place of death and for each stage of the Pathways to Survival framework. Pre-specified subgroup analysis included age group, national income and user-fee policy. We explored heterogeneity with meta-regression. Our protocol was published prospectively (CRD42018111484).

Results

We included 34 studies from 17 countries. Approximately half of the children died at home, irrespective of age. More children died at home in settings with user-fees (69.1%, 95% confidence interval (CI) = 56.2-80.6, I² = 98.4%) compared to settings without user-fees (43.8%, 95% CI = 34.3-53.5, I² = 96.7%). Signs of illness were present in over 95% of children but care-seeking differed by age. 40.1% of neonates (95% CI = 20.7-61.3, I² = 98.0%) died without receiving any care, compared to 6.4% of older children (95% CI = 4.2%-9.0%, I² = 90.6%). Care-seeking outside the home was less common in neonatal deaths (50.5%, 95% CI = 35.6-65.3, I² = 98.3%) compared to infants and young children (82.4%, 95% CI = 79.4%-85.2%, I² = 87.5%). In both age groups, most children were taken for formal care. Healthcare facilities discharged 69.6% of infants and young children who arrived alive (95% CI = 59.6-78.7, I² = 95.5%), of whom only 34.9% were referred for further care (95% CI = 15.1-57.9, I² = 98.7%).

Conclusions

Despite similar distributions in place of death for neonates and infants and young children, care-seeking behaviour differed by age groups. Poor illness recognition is implicated in neonatal deaths, but death despite care-seeking implies inadequate quality care and referral for older children. Understanding such care-seeking patterns enables targeted interventions to reduce under-5 mortality across the region.

Neonatal deaths in Cambodia: findings from a community-based mortality review

Objectives

The aim of this study was to describe potential factors contributing to neonatal mortality in Takeo, Cambodia through assessment of verbal autopsies collected following newborn deaths in the community. The mortality review was nested within a trial of a behavioral intervention to improve newborn survival, and was conducted after the close of the trial, within the study setting. The World Health Organization standardized definition of neonatal mortality was employed, and two pediatricians independently reviewed data collected from each event to assign a cause of death.

Results

Thirteen newborn deaths of infants born in health facilities participating in a community based, behavioral intervention were reported during February 2015–November 2016. Ten deaths (76.92%) were early neonatal deaths, two (15.38%) were late neonatal deaths, and one was a stillbirth. Five out of 13 deaths (38.46%) occurred within the first day of life. The largest single contributor to mortality was neonatal sepsis; six of 13 deaths (46.15%) were attributed to some form of sepsis. Twenty-three percent of deaths were attributed to asphyxia. The study highlights the continuing need to improve quality of care and infection prevention and control, and to fully address causes of sepsis, in order to effectively reduce mortality in the newborn period.

Latent class analysis of the social determinants of health-seeking behaviour for delivery among pregnant women in Malawi

INTRODUCTION

In the era of Sustainable Development Goals, reducing maternal and neonatal mortality is a priority. With one of the highest maternal mortality ratios in the world, Malawi has a significant opportunity for improvement. One effort to improve maternal outcomes involves increasing access to high-quality health facilities for delivery. This study aimed to determine the role that quality plays in women's choice of delivery facility.

METHODS

A revealed-preference latent class analysis was performed with data from 6625 facility births among women in Malawi from 2013 to 2014. Responses were weighted for national representativeness, and model structure and class number were selected using the Bayesian information criterion.

RESULTS

Two classes of preferences exist for pregnant women in Malawi. Most of the population 65.85% (95% CI 65.847% to 65.853%) prefer closer facilities that do not charge fees. The remaining third (34.15%, 95% CI 34.147% to 34.153%) prefers central hospitals, facilities with higher basic obstetric readiness scores and locations further from home. Women in this class are more likely to be older, literate, educated and wealthier than the majority of women.

CONCLUSION

For only one-third of pregnant Malawian women, structural quality of care, as measured by basic obstetric readiness score, factored into their choice of facility for delivery. Most women instead prioritise closer care and care without fees. Interventions designed to increase access to high-quality care in Malawi will need to take education, distance, fees and facility type into account, as structural quality alone is not predictive of facility type selection in this population.

The effect of antenatal care follow-up on neonatal health outcomes: a systematic review and meta-analysis

Background

Neonatal mortality is one of the major public health problems throughout the world and most notably in developing countries. There exist inconclusive findings on the effect of antenatal care visits on neonatal death worldwide. Thus, the aim of this systematic review and meta-analysis was to reveal the pooled effect of antenatal care visits on neonatal death.

Methods

The present systematic review and meta-analysis was performed using published literature, which was accessed from national and international databases such as, Medline/PubMed, EMBASE, CINAHL, Cochrane Central library, Google Scholar, and HINARI. STATA/SE for windows version 13 software was used to calculate the pooled effect size with 95% confidence intervals (95% CI) of maternal antenatal care visits on neonatal death using the DerSimonian and Laird random effects meta-analysis (random effects model), and results were displayed using forest plot. Statistical heterogeneity was checked using the Cochran Q test (chi-squared statistic) and I² test statistic and by visual examination of the forest plot.

Results

A total of 18 studies, which fulfilled the inclusion criteria, were included in the present systematic review and meta-analysis. The finding of the present systematic review and meta-analysis revealed that antenatal care visits decrease the risk of neonatal mortality [pooled effect size 0.66 (95% CI, 0.54, 0.80)]. Cochrane Q test (P < 0.001) revealed no significant heterogeneity among included studies, but I² statistic revealed sizeable heterogeneity up to 80.5% (I² = 80.5%). In the present meta-analysis traditional funnel plot, Egger’s weighted regression (P = 0.48) as well as Begg’s rank correlation statistic (P = 0.47) revealed no evidence of publication bias.

Conclusions

The present systematic review and meta-analysis revealed that antenatal care visits were significantly associated with lower rates of neonatal death. The risk of neonatal death was significantly reduced by 34% among newborns delivered from mothers who had antenatal care visits. Thus, visiting antenatal care clinics during pregnancy is strongly recommended especially in resource-limited settings like countries of sub-Saharan Africa.

Electronic supplementary material

The online version of this article (10.1186/s40985-018-0110-y) contains supplementary material, which is available to authorized users.

Efforts to alter the trajectory of neonatal mortality in Malawi: evaluating relative effects of access to maternal care services and birth history risk factors

BACKGROUND

The neonatal mortality rate (NMR) in Malawi has remained stagnant at around 27 per 1000 live births over the last 15 years, despite an increase in the uptake of targeted health care interventions. We used the nationally representative 2015/16 Demographic Health Survey data set to evaluate the effect of two types of maternal exposures, namely, lack of access to maternal or intra-partum care services and birth history factors, on the risk of neonatal mortality.

METHODS

A causal inference approach was used to estimate a population attributable risk parameter for each exposure, adjusting for co-exposures and household, maternal and child-specific covariates. The maternal exposures evaluated were unmet family planning needs, less than 4+ antenatal care visits, lack of institutional delivery or skilled birth attendance, having prior neonatal mortality, short (8-24 months) birth interval preceding the index birth, first pregnancy, and two or more pregnancy outcomes within the preceding five years of the survey interview.

RESULTS

We included 9553 women and their most recent live birth within 3 years of the survey. The sample's overall neonatal mortality rate was 18.5 per 1000 live births. The adjusted population attributable risk for first pregnancies was 3.9/1000 (P < 0.001), while non-institutional deliveries and the shortest preceding birth interval (8-24 months) each had an attributable risk of 1.3/1000 (Ps = 0.01). Having 2 or more pregnancy outcomes within the last 5 years had an attributable risk of 3/1000 (P = 0.006). Attending less than 4 ANC visits had, a relatively large attributable risk (2.1/1,000), and it was not statistically significant at alpha level 0.05.

CONCLUSIONS

Our analysis addresses the gap in the literature on evaluating the effect of these exposures on neonatal mortality in Malawi. It also helps inform programs and current efforts such as the Every Newborn Action 2020 Plan. Increasing access to maternal care interventions has an important role to play in changing the trajectory of neonatal mortality, and women who are at an increased risk may not be receiving adequate care. Recent studies indicate an urgent need to assess gaps in service readiness and quality of care at the antenatal and obstetric care facilities.

Using social autopsy to understand maternal, newborn, and child mortality in low-resource settings: a systematic review of the literature

Background: Social, cultural, and behavioral factors are often potent upstream contributors to maternal, neonatal, and child mortality, especially in low- and middle-income countries (LMICs). Social autopsy is one method of identifying the impact of such factors, yet it is unclear how social autopsy methods are being used in LMICs.

Objective: This study aimed to identify the most common social autopsy instruments, describe overarching findings across populations and geography, and identify gaps in the existing social autopsy literature.

Methods: A systematic search of the peer-reviewed literature from 2005 to 2016 was conducted. Studies were included if they were conducted in an LMIC, focused on maternal/neonatal/infant/child health, reported on the results of original research, and explicitly mentioned the use of a social autopsy tool.

Results: Sixteen articles out of 1950 citations were included, representing research conducted in 11 countries. Five different tools were described, with two primary conceptual frameworks used to guide analysis: Pathway to Survival and Three Delays models. Studies varied in methods for identifying deaths, and recall periods for respondents ranged from 6 weeks to 5+ years. Across studies, recognition of danger signs appeared to be high, while subsequent care-seeking was inconsistent. Cost, distance to facility, and transportation issues were frequently cited barriers to care-seeking, however, additional barriers were reported that varied by location. Gaps in the social autopsy literature include the lack of: harmonized tools and analytical methods that allow for cross-study comparisons, discussion of complexity of decision making for care seeking, qualitative narratives that address inconsistencies in responses, and the explicit inclusion of perspectives from husbands and fathers.

Conclusion: Despite the nascence of the field, research across 11 countries has included social autopsy methods, using a variety of tools, sampling methods, and analytical frameworks to determine how social factors impact maternal, neonatal, and child health outcomes.

Social autopsy for identifying causes of adult mortality

Verbal autopsy methods have been developed to determine medical causes of deathforprioritizing disease control programs. Additional information on social causesmay facilitate designing of more appropriate prevention strategies. Use of social autopsy in investigations of causes of adult deaths has been limited. Therefore, acommunity-based study was conducted in NandpurKalour Block of Fatehgarh Sahib District in Punjab (India)for finding social causes of adult deaths. An integrated verbal and social autopsy toolwas developed and verbal autopsies of 600 adult deaths, occurring over a reference period of one year, were conducted in 2014. Quantitative analysis described the socio-demographic characteristics of the deceased, number and type of consultations from health care providers, and type of care received during illness. Qualitative data was analyzed to find out social causes of death by thematic analysis. The median duration of illness from symptom onset till death was 9 days (IQR = 1-45 days). At the onset of illness, 72 (12%) deceased utilized home remedies and 424 (70.7%)received care from a clinic/hospital, and 104 (17.3%) died withoutreceiving any care. The number of medical consultations varied from one to six (median = 2). The utilization of government health facilities and qualified allopathic doctor increased with each consultation (p value<0.05). The top five social causes of adult deaths in a rural area of Punjab in India. (1) Non availability of medical practitioner in the vicinity, (2) communication gaps between doctor and patient on regular intake of medication, (3) delayed referral by service provider, (4) poor communication with family on illness, and (5) perception of illness to be 'mild' by the family or care taker. To conclude, social autopsy tool should be integrated with verbal autopsy tool for identification of individual, community, and health system level factors associated with adult mortality.

Initiating a participatory action research process in the Agincourt health and socio-demographic surveillance site

BACKGROUND

Despite progressive health policy, disease burdens in South Africa remain patterned by deeply entrenched social inequalities. Accounting for the relationships between context, health and risk can provide important information for equitable service delivery. The aims of the research were to initiate a participatory research process with communities in a low income setting and produce evidence of practical relevance.

METHODS

We initiated a participatory action research (PAR) process in the Agincourt health and socio-demographic surveillance site (HDSS) in rural north-east South Africa. Three village-based discussion groups were convened and consulted about conditions to examine, one of which was under-5 mortality. A series of discussions followed in which routine HDSS data were presented and participants' subjective perspectives were elicited and systematized into collective forms of knowledge using ranking, diagramming and participatory photography. The process concluded with a priority setting exercise. Visual and narrative data were thematically analyzed to complement the participants' analysis.

RESULTS

A range of social and structural root causes of under-5 mortality were identified: poverty, unemployment, inadequate housing, unsafe environments and shortages of clean water. Despite these constraints, single mothers were often viewed as negligent. A series of mid-level contributory factors in clinics were also identified: overcrowding, poor staffing, delays in treatment and shortages of medications. In a similar sense, pronounced blame and negativity were directed toward clinic nurses in spite of the systems constraints identified. Actions to address these issues were prioritized as: expanding clinics, improving accountability and responsiveness of health workers, improving employment, providing clean water, and expanding community engagement for health promotion.

CONCLUSIONS

We initiated a PAR process to gain local knowledge and prioritize actions. The process was acceptable to those involved, and there was willingness and commitment to continue. The study provided a basis from which to gain support to develop fuller forms of participatory research in this setting. The next steps are to build deeper involvement of participants in the process, expand to include the perspectives of those most marginalized, and engage in the health system at different levels to move toward an ongoing process of action and learning from action.

Understanding Misclassification between Neonatal Deaths and Stillbirths: Empirical Evidence from Malawi

Improving the counting of stillbirths and neonatal deaths is important to tracking Sustainable Development Goal 3.2 and improving vital statistics in low- and middle-income countries (LMICs). However, the validity of self-reported stillbirths and neonatal deaths in surveys is often threatened by misclassification errors between the two birth outcomes. We assessed the extent and correlates of stillbirths being misclassified as neonatal deaths by comparing two recent and linked population surveys conducted in Malawi, one being a full birth history (FBH) survey, and the other a follow-up verbal/social autopsy (VASA) survey. We found that one-fifth of 365 neonatal deaths identified in the FBH survey were classified as stillbirths in the VASA survey. Neonatal deaths with signs of movements in the last few days before delivery reported were less likely to be misclassified stillbirths (OR = 0.08, p<0.05). Having signs of birth injury was found to be associated with higher odds of misclassification (OR = 6.17, p<0.05). We recommend replicating our study with larger sample size in other settings. Additionally, we recommend conducting validation studies to confirm accuracy and completeness of live births and neonatal deaths reported in household surveys with events reported in a full birth history and the extent of underestimation of neonatal mortality resulting from misclassifications. Questions on fetal movement, signs of life at delivery and improved probing among older mother may be useful to improve accuracy of reported events.

Obstetric Facility Quality and Newborn Mortality in Malawi: A Cross-Sectional Study

BACKGROUND

Ending preventable newborn deaths is a global health priority, but efforts to improve coverage of maternal and newborn care have not yielded expected gains in infant survival in many settings. One possible explanation is poor quality of clinical care. We assess facility quality and estimate the association of facility quality with neonatal mortality in Malawi.

METHODS AND FINDINGS

Data on facility infrastructure as well as processes of routine and basic emergency obstetric care for all facilities in the country were obtained from 2013 Malawi Service Provision Assessment. Birth location and mortality for children born in the preceding two years were obtained from the 2013-2014 Millennium Development Goals Endline Survey. Facilities were classified as higher quality if they ranked in the top 25% of delivery facilities based on an index of 25 predefined quality indicators. To address risk selection (sicker mothers choosing or being referred to higher-quality facilities), we employed instrumental variable (IV) analysis to estimate the association of facility quality of care with neonatal mortality. We used the difference between distance to the nearest facility and distance to a higher-quality delivery facility as the instrument. Four hundred sixty-seven of the 540 delivery facilities in Malawi, including 134 rated as higher quality, were linked to births in the population survey. The difference between higher- and lower-quality facilities was most pronounced in indicators of basic emergency obstetric care procedures. Higher-quality facilities were located a median distance of 3.3 km further from women than the nearest delivery facility and were more likely to be in urban areas. Among the 6,686 neonates analyzed, the overall neonatal mortality rate was 17 per 1,000 live births. Delivery in a higher-quality facility (top 25%) was associated with a 2.3 percentage point lower newborn mortality (95% confidence interval [CI] -0.046, 0.000, p-value 0.047). These results imply a newborn mortality rate of 28 per 1,000 births at low-quality facilities and of 5 per 1,000 births at the top 25% of facilities, accounting for maternal and newborn characteristics. This estimate applies to newborns whose mothers would switch from a lower-quality to a higher-quality facility if one were more accessible. Although we did not find an indication of unmeasured associations between the instrument and outcome, this remains a potential limitation of IV analysis.

CONCLUSIONS

Poor quality of delivery facilities is associated with higher risk of newborn mortality in Malawi. A shift in focus from increasing utilization of delivery facilities to improving their quality is needed if global targets for further reductions in newborn mortality are to be achieved.