Costs and health impact of delayed implementation of a national hepatitis B treatment program in China

Health economic evaluation of newborn hepatitis B immunization prevention strategies in Ningbo: a Markov modeling study

Background

Hepatitis B virus (HBV) infection poses a significant public health challenge in China. The Prevention of mother-to-child Transmission (PMTCT) strategy of combining universal hepatitis B vaccination with hepatitis B immunoglobulin (HBIG) for newborns is crucial in preventing widespread infection. In this study, we conduct health economic evaluation of three strategies: PMTCT, universal vaccination, and non-vaccination for newborns in Ningbo, China.

Methods

This study developed a decision-Markov model and simulated a cohort of 100,000 newborns to assess the cost-effectiveness and cost-benefit of three strategies from a healthcare system perspective. The primary outputs included total costs, life-years (LYs), quality-adjusted life-years (QALYs), incremental cost-effectiveness ratios (ICERs), benefit-cost ratios (BCRs). One-way and probabilistic sensitivity analyses (PSA) were performed to verify the robustness of the model.

Results

Among the three strategies, the PMTCT results in the least disease burden and mortality related to hepatitis B. In comparison to a cohort of 100,000 unvaccinated infants, the PMTCT is expected to prevent 6,029 cases of acute symptomatic infections, 27,348 HBV carriers, 4,170 chronic infections, 3,597 cases of cirrhosis, 2,911 cases of hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC), and 3,930 HBV-related deaths. The ICERs for PMTCT and universal vaccination were - 56,371.77 yuan/QALY and - 56,654.77 yuan/QALY, respectively. The BCRs for PMTCT and universal vaccination were 19.13 and 15.95, respectively, when compared to no vaccination. The PSA revealed that all ICER scatter points are situated within the fourth quadrant, and the probability of PMTCT being cost-effective exceeds 90%.

Conclusion

Implementing universal hepatitis B vaccination with HBIG for newborns in Ningbo demonstrated high cost-effectiveness, making the continuation of the PMTCT strategy highly recommended.

Evaluating the Macroeconomic Burden of Hepatitis B and the Gains From Timely Coverage Investments in China

BACKGROUND

Hepatitis B (HBV) continues to pose a significant public health challenge in China. This study aimed to assess the macroeconomic burden of HBV and its impact on gross domestic product (GDP) in China and estimate the potential benefits of early and enhanced interventions between 2023 and 2050.

METHODS

A compartmental model was employed to simulate HBV transmission, progression, and patient care. The model was structured by age and sex to calculate the costs and benefits associated with achieving World Health Organisation (WHO) coverage targets by 2030, 2040, and 2050. The macroeconomic burden was estimated using a health-augment model, based on a counterfactual scenario. All costs were reported in 2023 US dollars.

RESULTS

The estimated macroeconomic burden of HBV in China from 2023 to 2050 is projected to reach $2.52 trillion, representing 0.33% of the country's total GDP. Achieving the WHO HBV diagnosis and treatment coverage targets by 2030 could, over the same period, reduce cumulative CHB incidence by 0.27(95% UI 0.24-0.30) million, prevent 1.08(95% UI 0.91-1.24) million HCC cases, avert 2.98(95% UI 2.83-3.14) million HBV-related deaths, and contribute an additional $0.85 trillion (95% UI $0.78-$0.93 trillion) to GDP by 2050.

CONCLUSIONS

These findings underscore the importance of early and increased interventions in the diagnosis and treatment of HBV to mitigate the long-term impact of CHB, HCC, and HBV-related deaths. Achieving WHO coverage targets not only optimises disease burden but also promotes economic growth.

Comprehensive approach to controlling chronic hepatitis B in China

Hepatitis B virus (HBV) infection was highly endemic in China, where the prevalence of HBsAg was 9.7% in 1992. Comprehensive strategies, including universal infant hepatitis B vaccination with emphasis on timely birth-dose and 3-dose coverage, dramatically reduced the mother-to-infant transmission and early childhood acquisition of HBV, resulting in estimated HBsAg prevalence rates of 5.6% and 0.1% in the general population and among children aged <5 years in 2022, respectively. Clinical guidelines on the prevention and treatment of chronic hepatitis B have been periodically updated based on emerging evidence from clinical research. The continuously improved reimbursement policy and the massively reduced price of antiviral drugs through government negotiation and central procurement have increased treatment accessibility and affordability. However, due to the low rates of diagnosis and treatment, China still faces a large challenge in achieving the 2030 goal of lowering HBV-related mortality by 65%. A public health approach involving concerted efforts from the government, medical community, industry, and society as a whole would be necessary to increase the uptake of HBV tests and treatment to achieve the global goal of eliminating viral hepatitis as a public health threat by 2030.

Noninvasive Models to Assess Liver Inflammation and Fibrosis in Chronic HBV Infected Patients with Normal or Mildly Elevated Alanine Transaminase Levels: Which One Is Most Suitable?

The prevalence of substantial inflammation or fibrosis in treatment-naïve patients with chronic hepatitis B (CHB) and normal alanine transaminase (ALT) levels is high. A retrospective analysis was conducted on 559 consecutive patients with hepatitis B virus infection, who underwent liver biopsy, to investigate the value of noninvasive models based on routine serum markers for evaluating liver histology in CHB patients with normal or mildly elevated ALT levels and to provide treatment guidance. After comparing 55 models, we identified the top three models that exhibited excellent performance. The APGA model, based on the area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (AUROC), demonstrated a superior ability to evaluate significant (AUROC = 0.750) and advanced fibrosis (AUROC = 0.832) and demonstrated a good performance in assessing liver inflammation (AUROCs = 0.779 and 0.874 for stages G ≥ 2 and G ≥ 3, respectively). APGA also exhibited significant correlations with liver inflammation and fibrosis stage (correlation coefficients, 0.452 and 0.405, respectively (p < 0.001)). When the patients were stratified into groups based on HBeAg status and ALT level, APGA consistently outperformed the other 54 models. The other top two models, GAPI and XIE, also outperformed models based on other chronic hepatitis diseases. APGA may be the most suitable option for detecting liver fibrosis and inflammation in Chinese patients with CHB.

Real-World Epidemiology, Treatment Patterns, and Disease Burden of Chronic Hepatitis B and HDV Co-Infection in South Korea

INTRODUCTION

Long-term complications of chronic hepatitis B (CHB) viral infection, such as cirrhosis, hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC), and liver failure, cause a large disease burden. This study aimed to describe the epidemiology, clinical outcomes, and treatment patterns of CHB infection and co-infection with hepatitis D virus (HDV) in South Korea.

METHODS

The retrospective, observational study used existing data from the Health Insurance Review and Assessment Service (HIRA) database. Confirmed cases of (CHB) and HBV/HDV co-infection were identified between 2013 and 2019. Hepatitis C virus co-infections and acute HBV infections were excluded. Incident cases diagnosed between 2015 and 2018 with no prior disease history up to 2 years were included. Patient characteristics, clinical outcomes, economic burden, and healthcare-resource utilization were described.

RESULTS

The estimated 7-year prevalence of CHB and HBV/HDV co-infection were 0.9% and 0.0024%, respectively. The prevalence was higher among 45-54 years old (CHB: 1.6%, HBV/HDV: 0.0049%) and males (1.1%, 0.0035%). The 5-year cumulative incidences of compensated cirrhosis, decompensated cirrhosis, HCC, and liver transplantation were 13.3%, 7.1%, 8.4%, and 0.7%, respectively. Hyperlipidemia (40.6%), hypertension (23.5%), and peptic ulcer (23.7%) were the more prevalent comorbidities. Among CHB patients, 48.1% received ≥ 1 prescribed anti-HBV drug including interferon or nucleos(t)ide analogues and 64.4% had ≥ 1 hospitalization compared to 80.4% and 79.4% HBV/HDV patients. Estimated total healthcare costs for CHB and HBV/HDV were US$786 million and $62 million, respectively.

CONCLUSIONS

These findings provide insights to the epidemiology, clinical burden, treatment patterns, and healthcare costs of CHB and HBV/HDV co-infection in South Korea.

A global investment case for hepatitis B elimination: a modelling study

Hepatitis B is estimated to cause 500 000-900 000 deaths globally each year. WHO has targets for elimination by 2030; however, progress has stalled due to multiple barriers, notably a paucity of global funding and insufficient evidence on the economic burden of disease. Using a dynamic mathematical model of hepatitis B transmission, disease progression, and mortality in the six WHO regions, we estimate the costs and benefits of reaching 90% vaccination, 90% diagnosis, and 80% treatment coverage by either 2030 (as targeted), 2040, or 2050. Without increased intervention coverage, hepatitis B mortality was estimated to cost US$784·35 billion (95% Crl 731·63-798·33 billion) globally in lost productivity over 2022-50. Achieving targets by 2030 averted 25·64 million infections (95% Crl 17·39-34·55 million) and 8·63 million hepatitis B-attributable deaths (95% Crl 7·12-9·74 million) over 2022-50. This achievement incurred an incremental cost of $2934·55 (95% Crl 2778·55-3173·52) per disability-adjusted life year averted by 2050 under a health systems perspective, and was cost-saving with a net economic benefit of $99·03 billion (95% Crl 78·66-108·96 billion) by 2050 from a societal perspective. Delayed achievement of intervention coverage targets had reduced health and economic benefits. These findings highlight that hepatitis B is an underappreciated cause of economic burden and show investment toward elimination will probably yield substantial returns.