Which is the best predictor of clinically relevant pancreatic fistula after pancreatectomy: drain fluid concentration or total amount of amylase?

A novel prediction model of pancreatic fistula after pancreaticoduodenectomy using only preoperative markers

BACKGROUND

Since clinically relevant postoperative pancreatic fistula (CR-POPF) can cause intra-abdominal hemorrhage and abscesses, leading to surgery-related deaths after pancreaticoduodenectomy (PD), its preoperative prediction is important to develop strategies for surgical procedures and perioperative management. This study aimed to establish a novel prediction model for CR-POPF using preoperative markers.

METHODS

On a training set of 180 patients who underwent PD at the Yamaguchi University Hospital, a combination of CR-POPF predictors were explored using the leave-one-out method with a unique discrete Bayes classifier. This predictive model was confirmed using a validation set of 366 patients who underwent PD at the Osaka University Hospital.

RESULTS

In the training set, CR-POPF occurred in 60 (33%)　of 180 patients and 130 (36%)　of 366 patients in the validation set using selected markers. In patients with pancreatic ductal adenocarcinoma (PDAC), the main pancreatic duct (MPD) index showed the highest prognostic performance and could differentiate CR-POPF with 87% sensitivity and 81% specificity among 84 patients in the training set. In the validation set, the sensitivity and specificity of the MPD index-based model for 130 PDAC samples were 93% and 87%, respectively. In patients with non-PDAC, the MPD index/body mass index (BMI) combination showed the highest prognostic performance and could differentiate CR-POPF with 84% sensitivity and 57% specificity among 96 patients in the training set. In the validation set, the sensitivity and specificity of the MPD index/BMI-based model for 236 non-PDAC samples were 85% and 53%, respectively.

CONCLUSION

We developed a novel prediction model for pancreatic fistulas after PD using only preoperative markers. The MPD index and MPD index/BMI combination will be useful for CR-POPF assessment in PDAC and non-PDAC samples, respectively.

Postoperative Opioid Use Is Associated with Increased Rates of Grade B/C Pancreatic Fistula After Distal Pancreatectomy

BACKGROUND

Clinically relevant postoperative pancreatic fistula (CR-POPF) is a major source of morbidity after distal pancreatectomy. This study examined the association between postoperative opioid use and CR-POPF in the context of opioid-sparing postoperative care.

METHODS

A case-control study was performed on consecutive patients who underwent distal pancreatectomy between October 2016 and April 2022 at a single institution. Patients who developed CR-POPF were compared to controls. Multivariable regression modeling was used to identify factors associated with CR-POPF.

RESULTS

A total of 281 patients underwent 187 open, 20 laparoscopic, and 74 robotic-assisted operations. The rate of CR-POPF was 21% (n = 58). CR-POPF rate declined from 32 to 8% over the study period (p < 0.001). Median oral morphine equivalents (OME) administered on POD 0-1 and 0-3 were 94 and 129 mg, respectively, in patients who did not develop a fistula versus 130 and 180 mg in those who did (both p ≤ 0.001). POD 0-3 OME (OR 1.11, p = 0.044) was independently associated with increased odds of CR-POPF, with each additional 50 mg (equivalent to 10 tramadol pills) increasing the relative risk by 11% and absolute risk by 2%.

CONCLUSION

Early postoperative opioid use after distal pancreatectomy was associated with increased odds of CR-POPF. Decreasing perioperative opioid use through enhanced postoperative management is a low-cost and generalizable approach that may reduce rates of CR-POPF after distal pancreatectomy.

Drain fluid and serum amylase concentration ratio is the most reliable indicator for predicting postoperative pancreatic fistula after distal pancreatectomy

BACKGROUND

Postoperative pancreatic fistula (POPF) is a major complication of pancreatic surgery. Drain fluid amylase concentration (DAC) is considered a predictive indicator of POPF. However, other indicators related to postoperative drain fluid amylase status exist, and the most reliable indicator for predicting POPF remains unclear. The object of this study is to identify the single most accurate indicator related to drain fluid amylase status of POPF after distal pancreatectomy (DP).

METHODS

This single-institution retrospective study included 122 patients who underwent DP. The study was conducted between 2010 and 2022 at Gifu University Hospital. We statistically analyzed DAC, drain fluid amylase amount (DAA) calculated by multiplying DAC and daily drainage volume, and drain and serum amylase concentration ratio (DSACR) to assess the correlation with POPF.

RESULTS

Based on the definition and grading of the International Study Group of Pancreatic Fistula, 24.6 (%) of the 122 patients had Grades B and C POPF. The result of the receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curve for predicting POPF after DP, DSACR had the highest area under curve(AUC) value among DAC, DAA, and DSACR both POD1 and POD3. The cutoff value of DSACR on POD1 was 17 (AUC 0.69, sensitivity 80.0%, specificity 58.2%, and accuracy 63.6%). The cutoff value of DSACR on POD3 was 22 (AUC 0.77, sensitivity 77.7%, specificity 73.3%, and accuracy 73.6%). Overall, DSACR on POD3 had the highest AUC value. Furthermore, a multivariate logistic regression analysis revealed that pancreatic texture (soft; odds ratio [OR] 9.22; 95% confidence interval [CI] 2.22-44.19; p < 0.01) and DSACR on POD3 (> 22; OR 8.76; 95% CI 2.78-31.59; p < 0.001) were independently associated with POPF after DP.

CONCLUSIONS

DSACR is the most reliable indicator of drain fluid amylase status for predicting POPF after DP.

Risk factor analysis and prediction of postoperative clinically relevant pancreatic fistula after distal pancreatectomy

OBJECTIVE

Postoperative pancreatic fistula (POPF) following distal pancreatectomy (DP) is a serious complication. In the present study, we aimed to identify the risk factors associated with clinically relevant postoperative pancreatic fistula (CR-POPF) and establish a nomogram model for predicting CR-POPF after DP.

METHODS

In total, 115 patients who underwent DP at the General Hospital of Northern Theater Command between January 2005 and December 2020 were retrospectively studied. Univariate and multivariable logistic regression analyses were used to identify the independent risk factors associated with CR-POPF. Then, a nomogram was formulated based on the results of multivariable logistic regression analysis. The predictive performance was evaluated with receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curves. Decision curve and clinical impact curve analyses were used to validate the clinical application value of the model.

RESULTS

The incidence of CR-POPF was 33.0% (38/115) in the present study. Multivariate logistic regression analysis identified the following variables as independent risk factors for POPF: body mass index (BMI) (OR 4.658, P = 0.004), preoperative albumin level (OR 7.934, P = 0.001), pancreatic thickness (OR 1.256, P = 0.003) and pancreatic texture (OR 3.143, P = 0.021). We created a nomogram by incorporating the above mentioned risk factors. The nomogram model showed better predictive value, with a concordance index of 0.842, sensitivity of 0.710, and specificity of 0.870 when compared to each risk factor. Decision curve and clinical impact curve analyses also indicated that the nomogram conferred a high clinical net benefit.

CONCLUSION

Our nomogram could accurately and objectively predict the risk of postoperative CR-POPF in individuals who underwent DP, which could help clinicians with early identification of patients who might develop CR-POPF and early development of a suitable fistula mitigation strategy and postoperative management.

LATE POSTPANCREATICODUODENECTOMY HEMORRHAGE: INCIDENCE, RISK FACTORS, MANAGEMENT AND OUTCOME

ABSTRACT

Background:Postpancreaticoduodenectomy (PD) hemorrhage (PPH) is a life-threatening complication after PD. The main objective of this study was to evaluate incidence and factors associated with late PPH as well as the management strategy and outcomes. Methods: Between May 2017 and March 2020, clinical data from 192 patients undergoing PD were collected prospectively in the CHIRPAN Database (NCT02871336) and retrospectively analyzed. In our institution, all patients scheduled for a PD are routinely admitted for monitoring and management in intensive/intermediate care unit (ICU/IMC). Results: The incidence of late PPH was 17% (32 of 192), whereas the 90-day mortality rate of late PPH was 19% (6 of 32). Late PPH was associated with 90-day mortality (P = 0.001). Using multivariate analysis, independent risk factors for late PPH were postoperative sepsis (P = 0.036), and on day 3, creatinine (P = 0.025), drain fluid amylase concentration (P = 0.023), lipase concentration (P < 0.001), and C-reactive protein (CRP) concentration (P < 0.001). We developed two predictive scores for PPH occurrence, the PANCRHEMO scores. Score 1 was associated with 68.8% sensitivity, 85.6% specificity, 48.8% predictive positive value, 93.2% negative predictive value, and an area under the receiver operating characteristic curves of 0.841. Score 2 was associated with 81.2% sensitivity, 76.9% specificity, 41.3% predictive positive value, 95.3% negative predictive value, and an area under the receiver operating characteristic curve of 0.859. Conclusions: Routine ICU/IMC monitoring might contribute to a better management of these complications. Some predicting factors such as postoperative sepsis and biological markers on day 3 should help physicians to determine patients requiring a prolonged ICU/IMC monitoring.

The pancreas-to-muscle signal intensity ratio on T1-weighted MRI as a predictive biomarker for postoperative pancreatic fistula after distal pancreatectomy: a single-center retrospective study

BACKGROUND

Postoperative pancreatic fistula (POPF) is one of the serious complications of pancreatic surgery. When POPF occurs and becomes severe, it causes secondary complications and a longer treatment period. We previously reported a correlation between pancreatic fibrosis and magnetic resonance imaging (MRI) findings, and MRI may have the potential to predict POPF. This study aimed to assess the predictive ability of the pancreas-to-muscle signal intensity ratio on T₁-weighted MRI (SIR on T₁-w MRI) for POPF after distal pancreatectomy (DP).

METHODS

This single-institution retrospective study comprised 117 patients who underwent DP. It was conducted between 2010 and 2021 at the Gifu University Hospital. We statistically analyzed pre-, intra-, and postoperative factors to assess the correlation with POPF.

RESULTS

According to the definition and grading of the International Study Group of Pancreatic Fistula (ISGPF), 29 (24.8%) of the 117 patients had POPF grades B and C. In the univariate analysis, POPF was significantly associated with the pancreas-to-muscle SIR on T₁-w MRI, the drainage fluid amylase concentration (D-Amy) levels on postoperative day (POD) 1 and 3, white blood cell count on POD 1 and 3, C-reactive protein level on POD 3, and heart rate on POD 3. In multivariate analysis, only the pancreas-to-muscle SIR on T₁-w MRI (>1.37; odds ratio [OR] 23.25; 95% confidence interval [CI] 3.93-454.03; p < 0.01) and D-Amy level on POD 3 (>737 U/l; OR 3.91; 95% CI 1.02-16.36; p = 0.046) were identified as independent predictive factors.

CONCLUSIONS

The pancreas-to-muscle SIR on T₁-w MRI and postoperative D-Amy levels were able to predict the development of POPF after DP. The pancreas-to-muscle SIR on T₁-w MRI may be a potential objective biomarker reflecting pancreatic status.

Early Predictive Factors for Postoperative Pancreatic Fistula After Distal Pancreatectomy for Pancreatic Cancer

BACKGROUND/AIM

Postoperative pancreatic fistula (POPF) is the most serious complication of distal pancreatectomy (DP). When POPF occurs and becomes severe, it causes secondary complications and leads to a longer treatment period. This study aimed to identify early predictive factors of POPF after DP for pancreatic cancer (PC).

PATIENTS AND METHODS

This retrospective, single-institution study comprised of 55 patients with PC who underwent DP between 2010 and 2021 at the Gifu University Hospital. We statistically analyzed pre-, intra-, and post-operative factors to identify early predictive factors for POPF.

RESULTS

According to the definition and grading of the International Study Group of Pancreatic Fistula (ISGPF), 12 (21.8%) of 55 patients had POPF grades B and C. In the univariate analysis, POPF was significantly associated with the pancreas-to-muscle signal intensity ratio on T ₁ -weighted magnetic resonance imaging (SIR on T ₁ -w MRI), the drainage fluid amylase (D-Amy) levels on postoperative day 3 (POD3), C-reactive protein (CRP) on POD3, and heart rate on POD3. In multivariate analysis, pancreas-to-muscle SIR on T ₁ -w MRI [>1.37; odds ratio (OR)=17.08; 95% confidence interval (CI)=1.64-598.16; p=0.02], D-Amy levels on POD3 (>1,200 U/l; OR=20.00; 95% CI=1.73-563.83; p=0.02) and heart rate on POD3 (>100 bpm; OR=15.33; 95% CI=1.53-258.45; p=0.02) were identified as independent early predictive factors.

CONCLUSION

Preoperative pancreas-to-muscle SIR on T ₁ -w MRI and postoperative D-Amy levels and heart rate significantly correlated with POPF after DP for PC. Postoperative management based on these predictive factors may improve the postoperative course.

Blumgart anastomosis with polyglycolic acid felt reduces the incidence of pancreatic fistula after pancreaticoduodenectomy: A propensity score analysis

Polyglycolic acid (PGA) felt has been used to prevent clinically relevant postoperative pancreatic fistula (CR‐POPF) after pancreaticoduodenectomy (PD). However, there has been no related research on Blumgart anastomosis. Therefore, this study aimed to investigate the practical significance of Blumgart anastomosis with our new method involving PGA felt to prevent CR‐POPF following PD. Data from 133 consecutive patients who underwent Blumgart anastomosis during PD between June 2015 and November 2021 were reviewed. We applied PGA felt to 35 of these patients starting from July 2020. Surgical outcomes were analyzed by propensity score matching. Thirty‐five (35.7%) of the 98 patients in the without‐PGA group were matched with an equal number from the with‐PGA group after adjusting for covariates. CR‐POPF was found in 17 patients (49%) in the without‐PGA group and two patients (6%) in the with‐PGA group (P < .001). The multivariate analysis results indicated that male sex, pancreatic duct size <3 mm, soft pancreatic texture, and nonuse of PGA were independently associated with CR‐POPF after PD. In conclusion, Blumgart anastomosis with our new penetrating method for PGA felt reduces the incidence of CR‐POPF after PD.