Predicting recurrence in patients with sentinel node-negative melanoma: validation of the EORTC nomogram using population-based data

Prognostic and predictive biomarkers in melanoma

Biomarkers help to inform the clinical management of patients with melanoma. For patients with clinically localised primary melanoma, biomarkers can help to predict post-surgical outcome (including via the use of risk prediction tools), better select patients for sentinel lymph node biopsy, and tailor catch-all follow-up protocols to the individual. Systemic drug treatments, including immune checkpoint inhibitor (ICI) therapies and BRAF-targeted therapies, have radically improved the prognosis of metastatic (stage III and IV) cutaneous melanoma patients, and also shown benefit in the earlier setting of stage IIB/C primary melanoma. Unfortunately, a response is far from guaranteed. Here, we review clinically relevant, established, and emerging, prognostic, and predictive pathological biomarkers that refine clinical decision-making in primary and metastatic melanoma patients. Gene expression profile assays and nomograms are emerging tools for prognostication and sentinel lymph node risk prediction in primary melanoma patients. Biomarkers incorporated into clinical practice guidelines include BRAF V600 mutations for the use of targeted therapies in metastatic cutaneous melanoma, and the HLA-A∗02:01 allele for the use of a bispecific fusion protein in metastatic uveal melanoma. Several predictive biomarkers have been proposed for ICI therapies but have not been incorporated into Australian clinical practice guidelines. Further research, validation, and assessment of clinical utility is required before more prognostic and predictive biomarkers are fluidly integrated into routine care.

Cutaneous melanoma

Cutaneous melanoma is a malignancy arising from melanocytes of the skin. Incidence rates are rising, particularly in White populations. Cutaneous melanoma is typically driven by exposure to ultraviolet radiation from natural sunlight and indoor tanning, although there are several subtypes that are not related to ultraviolet radiation exposure. Primary melanomas are often darkly pigmented, but can be amelanotic, with diagnosis based on a combination of clinical and histopathological findings. Primary melanoma is treated with wide excision, with margins determined by tumour thickness. Further treatment depends on the disease stage (following histopathological examination and, where appropriate, sentinel lymph node biopsy) and can include surgery, checkpoint immunotherapy, targeted therapy, or radiotherapy. Systemic drug therapies are recommended as an adjunct to surgery in patients with resectable locoregional metastases and are the mainstay of treatment in advanced melanoma. Management of advanced melanoma is complex, particularly in those with cerebral metastasis. Multidisciplinary care is essential. Systemic drug therapies, particularly immune checkpoint inhibitors, have substantially increased melanoma survival following a series of landmark approvals from 2011 onward.

Clinically Significant Risk Thresholds in the Management of Primary Cutaneous Melanoma: A Survey of Melanoma Experts

BACKGROUND

Risk-based thresholds to guide management are undefined in the treatment of primary cutaneous melanoma but are essential to advance the field from traditional stage-based treatment to more individualized care.

METHODS

To estimate treatment risk thresholds, hypothetical clinical melanoma scenarios were developed and a stratified random sample was distributed to expert melanoma clinicians via an anonymous web-based survey. Scenarios provided a defined 5-year risk of recurrence and asked for recommendations regarding clinical follow-up, imaging, and adjuvant therapy. Marginal probability of response across the spectrum of 5-year recurrence risk was estimated. The risk at which 50% of respondents recommended a treatment was defined as the risk threshold.

RESULTS

The overall response rate was 56% (89/159). Three separate multivariable models were constructed to estimate the recommendations for clinical follow-up more than twice/year, for surveillance cross-sectional imaging at least once/year, and for adjuvant therapy. A 36% 5-year risk of recurrence was identified as the threshold for recommending clinical follow-up more than twice/year. The thresholds for recommending cross-sectional imaging and adjuvant therapy were 30 and 59%, respectively. Thresholds varied with the age of the hypothetical patient: at younger ages they were constant but increased rapidly at ages 60 years and above.

CONCLUSIONS

To our knowledge, these data provide the first estimates of clinically significant treatment thresholds for patients with cutaneous melanoma based on risk of recurrence. Future refinement and adoption of thresholds would permit assessment of the clinical utility of novel prognostic tools and represents an early step toward individualizing treatment recommendations.

Evaluation of the Indications for Sentinel Node Biopsy in Early-Stage Melanoma with the Advent of Adjuvant Systemic Therapy: An International, Multicenter Study

BACKGROUND

Patients presenting with early-stage melanoma (AJCC pT1b-pT2a) reportedly have a relatively low risk of a positive SNB (~5-10%). Those patients are usually found to have low-volume metastatic disease after SNB, typically reclassified to AJCC stage IIIA, with an excellent prognosis of ~90% 5-year survival. Currently, adjuvant systemic therapy is not routinely recommended for most patients with AJCC stage IIIA melanoma. The purpose was to assess the SN-positivity rate in early-stage melanoma and to identify primary tumor characteristics associated with high-risk nodal disease eligible for adjuvant systemic therapy METHODS: An international, multicenter retrospective cohort study from 7 large-volume cancer centers identified 3,610 patients with early primary cutaneous melanomas 0.8-2.0 mm in Breslow thickness (pT1b-pT2a; AJCC 8th edition). Patient demographics, primary tumor characteristics, and SNB status/details were analyzed.

RESULTS

The overall SNB-positivity rate was 11.4% (412/3610). Virtually all SNB-positive patients (409/412; 99.3%) were reclassified to AJCC stage IIIA. Multivariate analysis identified age, T-stage, mitotic rate, primary site and subtype, and lymphovascular invasion as independent predictors of sentinel node status. A mitotic rate of >1/mm2 was associated with a significantly increased SN-positivity rate and was the only significant independent predictor of high-risk SNB metastases (>1 mm maximum diameter).

CONCLUSIONS

The new treatment paradigm brings into question the role of SNB for patients with early-stage melanoma. The results of this large international cohort study suggest that a reevaluation of the indications for SNB for some patients with early-stage melanoma is required.

Using a Clinicopathologic and Gene Expression (CP-GEP) Model to Identify Stage I-II Melanoma Patients at Risk of Disease Relapse

Background: The current standard of care for patients without sentinel node (SN) metastasis (i.e., stage I−II melanoma) is watchful waiting, while >40% of patients with stage IB−IIC will eventually present with disease recurrence or die as a result of melanoma. With the prospect of adjuvant therapeutic options for patients with a negative SN, we assessed the performance of a clinicopathologic and gene expression (CP-GEP) model, a model originally developed to predict SN metastasis, to identify patients with stage I−II melanoma at risk of disease relapse. Methods: This study included patients with cutaneous melanoma ≥18 years of age with a negative SN between October 2006 and December 2017 at the Sahlgrenska University Hospital (Sweden) and Erasmus MC Cancer Institute (The Netherlands). According to the CP-GEP model, which can be applied to the primary melanoma tissue, the patients were stratified into high or low risk of recurrence. The primary aim was to assess the 5-year recurrence-free survival (RFS) of low- and high-risk CP-GEP. A secondary aim was to compare the CP-GEP model with the EORTC nomogram, a model based on clinicopathological variables only. Results: In total, 535 patients (stage I−II) were included. CP-GEP stratification among these patients resulted in a 5-year RFS of 92.9% (95% confidence interval (CI): 86.4−96.4) in CP-GEP low-risk patients (n = 122) versus 80.7% (95%CI: 76.3−84.3) in CP-GEP high-risk patients (n = 413; hazard ratio 2.93 (95%CI: 1.41−6.09), p < 0.004). According to the EORTC nomogram, 25% of the patients were classified as having a ‘low risk’ of recurrence (96.8% 5-year RFS (95%CI 91.6−98.8), n = 130), 49% as ‘intermediate risk’ (88.4% 5-year RFS (95%CI 83.6−91.8), n = 261), and 26% as ‘high risk’ (61.1% 5-year RFS (95%CI 51.9−69.1), n = 137). Conclusion: In these two independent European cohorts, the CP-GEP model was able to stratify patients with stage I−II melanoma into two groups differentiated by RFS.

Risk Stratification and Clinical Characteristics of Patients with Late Recurrence of Melanoma (>10 Years)

Background: Most patients with high-risk melanomas develop metastasis within the first few years after diagnosis. However, late recurrence of melanoma is seen in patients that metastasize more than 10 years after the primary diagnosis; a metastasis after 15 years is considered an ultra-late recurrence. It is critical to better understand the clinical and biological characteristics of this subset of melanoma patients in order to offer an individual treatment plan and prevent metastasis. Methods: We retrospectively analyzed melanoma patients with recurrence ≥10 years after a primary diagnosis documented between 1993 and 2012 at the skin cancer center of the University Medical Center Leipzig, Germany. We conducted a comprehensive review of the literature and compared the results with our data. Available archived primary melanoma tissue was investigated with a seven-marker immunohistochemical signature (immunoprint^®) previously validated to reliably identify high-risk patients within stages IB-III. Results: Out of 36 analyzed patients, a third metastasized ultra-late (≥15 years). The mean age at initial diagnosis was 51 years, with women being diagnosed comparatively younger than men. The largest proportion of patients with late recurrence had primary melanomas located on the trunk. The immunoprint^® signature of the available primary melanomas allowed the accurate prediction of a high risk. However, it is difficult to draw a definitive conclusion from the small number of cases that could be analyzed with immunoprint^® (n = 2) in this study. Apart from the primary tumor characteristics, the laboratory values at time of metastasis, comorbidities and outcome are also shown. Conclusion: Late and ultra-late recurrent melanomas seem not to differ from melanomas in general, apart from a distinctly higher proportion of lower leg localizations in ultra-late recurrent melanomas. The immunoprint^® signature may help to identify high-risk primary tumors at the time of initial diagnosis. However, apart from the risk profile of the primary tumor, it seems that individual immune surveillance can control residual tumor cells for more than a decade. Advanced age and increasing comorbidities may contribute to a disturbed immunological balance.