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Effect of Lockdown Period of COVID-19 Pandemic on Maternal Weight Gain, Gestational Diabetes, and Newborn Birth Weight. Am J Perinatol 2024; 41:e584-e593. [PMID: 35973792 PMCID: PMC10243366 DOI: 10.1055/a-1925-1347] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [MESH Headings] [Grants] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Submit a Manuscript] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Indexed: 11/01/2022]
Abstract
OBJECTIVE This study aimed to determine whether the lockdown period of the initial novel coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) surge in New York affected gestational weight gain (GWG), newborn birth weight (BW), and the frequency of gestational diabetes mellitus (GDM). Maternal and newborn outcomes during the first wave of the pandemic were compared with those during the same timeframe in the previous 2 years. STUDY DESIGN Retrospective cross-sectional study of all live singleton term deliveries from April 1 to July 31 between 2018 and 2020 at seven hospitals within a large academic health system in New York. Patients were excluded for missing data on: BW, GWG, prepregnancy body mass index, and gestational age at delivery. We compared GWG, GDM, and BW during the pandemic period (April-July 2020) with the same months in 2018 and 2019 (prepandemic) to account for seasonality. Linear regression was used to model the continuous outcomes of GWG and BW. Logistic regression was used to model the binary outcome of GDM. RESULTS A total of 20,548 patients were included in the study: 6,672 delivered during the pandemic period and 13,876 delivered during the prepandemic period. On regression analysis, after adjustment for study epoch and patient characteristics, the pandemic period was associated with lower GWG (β = -0.46, 95% confidence interval [CI]: -0.87 to -0.05), more GDM (adjusted odds ratio [aOR] = 1.24, 95% CI: 1.10-1.39), and no change in newborn BW (β = 0.03, 95% CI: -11.7 to 11.8) compared with the referent period. The largest increases in GDM between the two study epochs were noted in patients who identified as Hispanic (8.6 vs. 6.0%; p < 0.005) and multiracial/other (11.8 vs. 7.0%; p < 0.001). CONCLUSION The lockdown period of the pandemic was associated with a decrease in GWG and increase in GDM. Not all groups were affected equally. Hispanic and multiracial patients experienced a larger percentage change in GDM compared with non-Hispanic white patients. KEY POINTS · The COVID-19 lockdown was associated with decreased GWG and increased GDM.. · No change in newborn BW was seen during the lockdown.. · Overall, the lockdown did not have a large clinical effect on these pregnancy outcomes..
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Abstract
OBJECTIVE This study aimed to evaluate fetal biometrics as predictors of shoulder dystocia (SD) in a low-risk obstetrical population. STUDY DESIGN Participants were enrolled as part of a U.S.-based prospective cohort study of fetal growth in low-risk singleton gestations (n = 2,802). Eligible women had liveborn singletons ≥2,500 g delivered vaginally. Sociodemographic, anthropometric, and pregnancy outcome data were abstracted by research staff. The diagnosis of SD was based on the recorded clinical impression of the delivering physician. Simple logistic regression models were used to examine associations between fetal biometrics and SD. Fetal biometric cut points, selected by Youden's J and clinical determination, were identified to optimize predictive capability. A final model for SD prediction was constructed using backward selection. Our dataset was randomly divided into training (60%) and test (40%) datasets for model building and internal validation. RESULTS A total of 1,691 women (98.7%) had an uncomplicated vaginal delivery, while 23 (1.3%) experienced SD. There were no differences in sociodemographic or maternal anthropometrics between groups. Epidural anesthesia use was significantly more common (100 vs. 82.4%; p = 0.03) among women who experienced SD compared with those who did not. Amniotic fluid maximal vertical pocket was also significantly greater among SD cases (5.8 ± 1.7 vs. 5.1 ± 1.5 cm; odds ratio = 1.32 [95% confidence interval: 1.03,1.69]). Several fetal biometric measures were significantly associated with SD when dichotomized based on clinically selected cut-off points. A final prediction model was internally valid with an area under the curve of 0.90 (95% confidence interval: 0.81, 0.99). At a model probability of 1%, sensitivity (71.4%), specificity (77.5%), positive (3.5%), and negative predictive values (99.6%) did not indicate the ability of the model to predict SD in a clinically meaningful way. CONCLUSION Other than epidural anesthesia use, neither sociodemographic nor maternal anthropometrics were significantly associated with SD in this low-risk population. Both individually and in combination, fetal biometrics had limited ability to predict SD and lack clinical usefulness. KEY POINTS · SD unpredictable in low-risk women.. · Fetal biometry does not reliably predict SD.. · Epidural use associated with increased SD risk.. · SD prediction models clinically inefficient..
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Predictors of shoulder dystocia at the time of operative vaginal delivery: a prospective cohort study. Sci Rep 2023; 13:2658. [PMID: 36792626 PMCID: PMC9931691 DOI: 10.1038/s41598-023-29109-7] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [Figures] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 09/29/2021] [Accepted: 01/30/2023] [Indexed: 02/17/2023] Open
Abstract
Our aim was to identify factors associated with shoulder dystocia following an attempted operative vaginal delivery (aOVD) in a prospective cohort study and to evaluate whether these factors can be used to accurately predict shoulder dystocia by building a score of shoulder dystocia risk. This was a planned secondary analysis of a prospective cohort study of deliveries with aOVD at term from 2008-2013. Cases were defined as women with shoulder dystocia following an aOVD defined as a delivery that requires additional obstetric maneuvers following failure of gentle downward traction on the fetal head to effect delivery of the shoulders. Multivariate logistic regression analyses were performed to determine risk factors for shoulder dystocia. Shoulder dystocia occurred in 57 (2.7%) of the 2118 women included. In the whole cohort, women with shoulder dystocia more often had a history of shoulder dystocia (3.5% vs. 0.2%, p = 0.01), and there was a significant interaction between aOVD and gestational age and the duration of the second stage of labor: women with shoulder dystocia more often had a gestational age > 40 weeks and a second stage of labor longer than 3 h specifically for midpelvic aOVD. In multivariable analysis, a history of shoulder dystocia was the only factor independently associated with shoulder dystocia following aOVD (aOR 27.00, 95% CI 4.10-178.00). The AUC for the receiver operating characteristic curve generated using a multivariate model with term interaction with head station was 0.70 (95% CI 0.62-0.77). The model failed to accurately predict shoulder dystocia.
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Schulterdystokie – welche Neugeborenen machen Probleme? Geburtshilfe Frauenheilkd 2022. [DOI: 10.1055/a-1815-2568] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Indexed: 11/06/2022] Open
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Accuracy of Fetal Biacromial Diameter and Derived Ultrasonographic Parameters to Predict Shoulder Dystocia: A Prospective Observational Study. INTERNATIONAL JOURNAL OF ENVIRONMENTAL RESEARCH AND PUBLIC HEALTH 2022; 19:ijerph19095747. [PMID: 35565142 PMCID: PMC9101462 DOI: 10.3390/ijerph19095747] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [MESH Headings] [Track Full Text] [Download PDF] [Figures] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 03/13/2022] [Revised: 05/03/2022] [Accepted: 05/07/2022] [Indexed: 02/05/2023]
Abstract
Background and Objectives: Shoulder dystocia (ShD) is one of most dangerous obstetric complication. The objective of this study was to determine if the ultrasonographic fetal biacromial diameter (BA) and derived parameters could predict ShD in uncomplicated term pregnancies. Materials and Methods: We conducted a prospective observational study in a tertiary care university hospital from March 2021 to February 2022. We included all full-term pregnancies accepted for delivery that received an accurate ultrasonography (USG) scan before delivery. USG biometry and estimated fetal weight (EFW) were collected. Therefore, we evaluated the diameter of the mid-arm, the transverse thoracic diameter (TTD) and the biacromial diameter (BA). BA was estimated using Youssef’s formula: TTD + 2 mid-arm diameters. The primary outcome was the evaluation of BA and its related parameters (BA/biparietal diameter (BPD), BA/head circumference (HC) and BA–BPD in fetuses with ShD versus fetuses without ShD. Diagnostic accuracy for ShD of BA, BA/BPD, BA/HC and BA–BPD was evaluated using receiver operator curve (ROC) analysis. Results: 90 women were included in the analysis, four of these had ShD and required extra maneuvers after head delivery. BA was increased in fetuses with ShD (150.4 cm; 95% CI 133.2 cm to 167.6 cm) compared to no-ShD (133.5 cm; 95% CI 130.1 cm to 137.0 cm; p = 0.04). Significant differences were also found between ShD and no-ShD groups for BA/BPD (1.66 (95% CI 1.46 to 1.86) vs. 1.44 (95% CI 1.41 to 1.48); p = 0.04), BA/HC (0.45 (95% CI 0.40 to 0.49) vs. 0.39 (95% CI 0.38 to 0.40); p = 0.01), BA–BPD (60.0 mm (95% CI 42.4 to 77.6 cm) vs. 41.4 (95% CI 38.2 to 44.6); p = 0.03), respectively. ROC analysis showed an overall good accuracy for ShD, with an AUC of 0.821 (p = 0.001) for BA alone and 0.881 (p = 0.001), 0.857 (p = 0.016) and 0.867 (p = 0.013) for BA/BPD, BA–BPD and BA/HC, respectively. Conclusions: BA alone, as well as BA/BPD, BA/HC and BA–BPD might be useful predictors of ShD in uncomplicated term pregnancies. However, such evidence needs extensive confirmation by means of additional studies with large sample sizes, especially in case of pregnancies at high risk for ShD (i.e., gestational diabetes).
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Antenatal risk prediction of shoulder dystocia: influence of diabetes and obesity: a multicenter study. Arch Gynecol Obstet 2021; 304:1169-1177. [PMID: 34389888 DOI: 10.1007/s00404-021-06041-7] [Citation(s) in RCA: 2] [Impact Index Per Article: 0.7] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 12/08/2020] [Accepted: 03/17/2021] [Indexed: 11/29/2022]
Abstract
PURPOSE To estimate the risk of shoulder dystocia (SD) in pregnancies with/without maternal diabetes or obesity; to identify antenatal maternal and fetal ultrasound-derived risk factors and calculate their contributions. METHODS A multicenter retrospective analysis of 13,428 deliveries in three tertiary hospitals (2014-2017) with fetal ultrasound data ≤ 14 days prior to delivery (n = 7396). INCLUSION CRITERIA singleton pregnancies in women ≥ 18 years old; vertex presentation; vaginal delivery at ≥ 37 weeks of gestation. Estimated fetal weight (EFW) and birth weight (BW) were categorized by steps of 250 g. To evaluate risk factors, a model was performed using ultrasound data with SD as the dependent variable. RESULTS Diabetes was present in 9.3%; BMI ≥ 30 kg/m2 in 10.4% and excessive weight gain in 39.8%. The total SD rate was 0.9%, with diabetes 2.0% and with obesity 1.9%. These increased with BW 4250-4499 g compared to 4000-4249 g in women with diabetes (12.1% vs 1.9%, P = 0.010) and without (6.1% vs 1.6%, P < 0.001) and at the same BW threshold for women with obesity (9.6% vs 0.6%, P = 0.002) or without (6.4% vs 1.8%, P < 0.001). Rates increased similarly for EFW at 4250 g and for AC-HC at 2.5 cm. Independent risk factors for SD were EFW ≥ 4250 g (OR 3.8, 95% CI 1.5-9.4), AC-HC ≥ 2.5 cm (OR 3.1, 95% CI 1.3-7.5) and diabetes (OR 2.2, 95% CI 1.2-4.0). HC/AC ratio, obesity, excessive weight gain and labor induction were not significant. CONCLUSION Independent of diabetes, which remains a risk factor for SD, a significant increase may be expected if the EFW is ≥ 4250 g and AC-HC is ≥ 2.5 cm.
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Risk assessment of shoulder dystocia via the difference between transverse abdominal and biparietal diameters: A retrospective observational cohort study. PLoS One 2021; 16:e0247077. [PMID: 33577577 PMCID: PMC7880486 DOI: 10.1371/journal.pone.0247077] [Citation(s) in RCA: 1] [Impact Index Per Article: 0.3] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Track Full Text] [Download PDF] [Figures] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 11/12/2020] [Accepted: 01/31/2021] [Indexed: 11/19/2022] Open
Abstract
Shoulder dystocia is defined as vaginal cephalic delivery that requires additional obstetric maneuvers to deliver the fetus after the head has been delivered and gentle traction has failed. A bigger difference between the transverse abdominal diameter (TAD) (abdominal circumference [AC]/π) and biparietal diameter (BPD) (TAD-BPD) has been reported as a risk factor for shoulder dystocia in different countries; however, it remains unclear if this relationship is relevant in Japan. This study aimed to clarify the association between TAD-BPD and shoulder dystocia after adjusting for potential confounding factors in a Japanese cohort. We retrospectively examined 1,866 Japanese women who delivered vaginally between 37+0 and 41+6 weeks of gestation at the University of Yamanashi Hospital between June 2012 and November 2018. The cutoff value of TAD-BPD associated with shoulder dystocia and the association between TAD-BPD and shoulder dystocia were evaluated. The mean maternal age was 32.5±5.3 years; the patients included 1,053 nulliparous women (57.5%), 915 male infants (49.0%), 154 women with gestational diabetes mellitus (GDM) (8.3%), and 5 infants with macrosomia (0.3%). The mean TAD-BPD was 9.03±4.7 mm. The overall incidence of shoulder dystocia was 2.4% (44/1866). The cutoff value to predict shoulder dystocia was 12.0 mm (sensitivity, 61.4%; specificity, 73.8%; likelihood ratio, 2.34; positive predictive value, 5.4%; negative predictive value, 98.8%). We then used a multivariable logistic regression analysis to examine the association between TAD-BPD and shoulder dystocia while controlling for the potential confounding factors. In multivariate analyses, TAD-BPD ≥12.0 mm (adjusted odds ratio [OR], 4.39; 95% confidence interval [CI], 2.35-8.18) and GDM (adjusted OR, 3.59; 95% CI, 1.71-7.52) were associated with shoulder dystocia. Although TAD-BPD appears to be a relevant risk factor for shoulder dystocia, sonographic fetal anthropometric measures do not appear to be useful in screening for shoulder dystocia due to a low positive predictive value.
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Universal late pregnancy ultrasound screening to predict adverse outcomes in nulliparous women: a systematic review and cost-effectiveness analysis. Health Technol Assess 2021; 25:1-190. [PMID: 33656977 PMCID: PMC7958245 DOI: 10.3310/hta25150] [Citation(s) in RCA: 6] [Impact Index Per Article: 2.0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [MESH Headings] [Grants] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Indexed: 01/23/2023] Open
Abstract
BACKGROUND Currently, pregnant women are screened using ultrasound to perform gestational aging, typically at around 12 weeks' gestation, and around the middle of pregnancy. Ultrasound scans thereafter are performed for clinical indications only. OBJECTIVES We sought to assess the case for offering universal late pregnancy ultrasound to all nulliparous women in the UK. The main questions addressed were the diagnostic effectiveness of universal late pregnancy ultrasound to predict adverse outcomes and the cost-effectiveness of either implementing universal ultrasound or conducting further research in this area. DESIGN We performed diagnostic test accuracy reviews of five ultrasonic measurements in late pregnancy. We conducted cost-effectiveness and value-of-information analyses of screening for fetal presentation, screening for small for gestational age fetuses and screening for large for gestational age fetuses. Finally, we conducted a survey and a focus group to determine the willingness of women to participate in a future randomised controlled trial. DATA SOURCES We searched MEDLINE, EMBASE and the Cochrane Library from inception to June 2019. REVIEW METHODS The protocol for the review was designed a priori and registered. Eligible studies were identified using keywords, with no restrictions for language or location. The risk of bias in studies was assessed using the Quality Assessment of Diagnostic Accuracy Studies 2 (QUADAS-2) tool. Health economic modelling employed a decision tree analysed via Monte Carlo simulation. Health outcomes were from the fetal perspective and presented as quality-adjusted life-years. Costs were from the perspective of the public sector, defined as NHS England, and the costs of special educational needs. All costs and quality-adjusted life-years were discounted by 3.5% per annum and the reference case time horizon was 20 years. RESULTS Umbilical artery Doppler flow velocimetry, cerebroplacental ratio, severe oligohydramnios and borderline oligohydramnios were all either non-predictive or weakly predictive of the risk of neonatal morbidity (summary positive likelihood ratios between 1 and 2) and were all weakly predictive of the risk of delivering a small for gestational age infant (summary positive likelihood ratios between 2 and 4). Suspicion of fetal macrosomia is strongly predictive of the risk of delivering a large infant, but it is only weakly, albeit statistically significantly, predictive of the risk of shoulder dystocia. Very few studies blinded the result of the ultrasound scan and most studies were rated as being at a high risk of bias as a result of treatment paradox, ascertainment bias or iatrogenic harm. Health economic analysis indicated that universal ultrasound for fetal presentation only may be both clinically and economically justified on the basis of existing evidence. Universal ultrasound including fetal biometry was of borderline cost-effectiveness and was sensitive to assumptions. Value-of-information analysis indicated that the parameter that had the largest impact on decision uncertainty was the net difference in cost between an induced delivery and expectant management. LIMITATIONS The primary literature on the diagnostic effectiveness of ultrasound in late pregnancy is weak. Value-of-information analysis may have underestimated the uncertainty in the literature as it was focused on the internal validity of parameters, which is quantified, whereas the greatest uncertainty may be in the external validity to the research question, which is unquantified. CONCLUSIONS Universal screening for presentation at term may be justified on the basis of current knowledge. The current literature does not support universal ultrasonic screening for fetal growth disorders. FUTURE WORK We describe proof-of-principle randomised controlled trials that could better inform the case for screening using ultrasound in late pregnancy. STUDY REGISTRATION This study is registered as PROSPERO CRD42017064093. FUNDING This project was funded by the National Institute for Health Research (NIHR) Health Technology Assessment programme and will be published in full in Health Technology Assessment; Vol. 25, No. 15. See the NIHR Journals Library website for further project information.
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The Relationship between Fetal Abdominal Wall Thickness and Intrapartum Complications amongst Mothers with Pregestational Type 2 Diabetes. J Diabetes Res 2021; 2021:5544599. [PMID: 34195292 PMCID: PMC8184339 DOI: 10.1155/2021/5544599] [Citation(s) in RCA: 2] [Impact Index Per Article: 0.7] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [MESH Headings] [Track Full Text] [Download PDF] [Figures] [Journal Information] [Submit a Manuscript] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 02/25/2021] [Revised: 04/29/2021] [Accepted: 05/19/2021] [Indexed: 12/12/2022] Open
Abstract
OBJECTIVES To evaluate the utility of fetal abdominal wall thickness (AWT) for predicting intrapartum complications amongst mothers with pregestational type 2 diabetes. METHODS This was a historical cohort study of pregnant mothers with pregestational type 2 diabetes delivering at a Canadian tertiary-care center between January 1, 2014, and December 31, 2018. Delivery records were reviewed to collect information about demographics and peripartum complications. Stored fetal ultrasound images from 36 weeks' gestation were reviewed to collect fetal biometry and postprocessing measurement of AWT performed in a standardized fashion by 2 blinded and independent observers. The relationship between fetal AWT was then correlated with risk of intrapartum complications including emergency Caesarean section (CS) and shoulder dystocia. RESULTS 216 pregnant women with type 2 diabetes had planned vaginal deliveries and were eligible for inclusion. Mean maternal age was 31.3 years, and almost all were overweight or obese at the time of delivery (96.8%). Overall, the incidence of shoulder dystocia and emergency intrapartum CS was 7.4% and 17.6%, respectively. There was no difference in mean fetal AWT between those having a spontaneous vaginal delivery (8.2 mm (95% CI 7.9-8.5)) and those needing emergency intrapartum CS (8.1 mm (95% CI 7.4-8.8); p = 0.71) or shoulder dystocia (8.7 mm (95% CI 7.9-9.5); p = 0.23). There was strong interobserver correlation of AWT measurements (r = 0.838; p < 0.00001). The strongest association with intrapartum complications was birthweight (p = 0.003): with birthweight > 4000 grams, the relative risk of shoulder dystocia or CS is 2.75 (95% CI 1.74-4.36; p < 0.001). CONCLUSIONS There was no obvious benefit of AWT measurement at 36 weeks for predicting shoulder dystocia or intrapartum CS amongst women with type 2 diabetes in our population. The strongest predictor of intrapartum complications remained birthweight, and so studies for improving estimation of fetal weight and evaluating the role of intrapartum ultrasound for predicting risk of delivery complications are still needed.
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Universal third-trimester ultrasonic screening using fetal macrosomia in the prediction of adverse perinatal outcome: A systematic review and meta-analysis of diagnostic test accuracy. PLoS Med 2020; 17:e1003190. [PMID: 33048935 PMCID: PMC7553291 DOI: 10.1371/journal.pmed.1003190] [Citation(s) in RCA: 19] [Impact Index Per Article: 4.8] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [MESH Headings] [Grants] [Track Full Text] [Download PDF] [Figures] [Journal Information] [Submit a Manuscript] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 01/10/2020] [Accepted: 09/09/2020] [Indexed: 02/07/2023] Open
Abstract
BACKGROUND The effectiveness of screening for macrosomia is not well established. One of the critical elements of an effective screening program is the diagnostic accuracy of a test at predicting the condition. The objective of this study is to investigate the diagnostic effectiveness of universal ultrasonic fetal biometry in predicting the delivery of a macrosomic infant, shoulder dystocia, and associated neonatal morbidity in low- and mixed-risk populations. METHODS AND FINDINGS We conducted a predefined literature search in Medline, Excerpta Medica database (EMBASE), the Cochrane library and ClinicalTrials.gov from inception to May 2020. No language restrictions were applied. We included studies where the ultrasound was performed as part of universal screening and those that included low- and mixed-risk pregnancies and excluded studies confined to high risk pregnancies. We used the estimated fetal weight (EFW) (multiple formulas and thresholds) and the abdominal circumference (AC) to define suspected large for gestational age (LGA). Adverse perinatal outcomes included macrosomia (multiple thresholds), shoulder dystocia, and other markers of neonatal morbidity. The risk of bias was assessed using the Quality Assessment of Diagnostic Accuracy Studies (QUADAS-2) tool. Meta-analysis was carried out using the hierarchical summary receiver operating characteristic (ROC) and the bivariate logit-normal (Reitsma) models. We identified 41 studies that met our inclusion criteria involving 112,034 patients in total. These included 11 prospective cohort studies (N = 9986), one randomized controlled trial (RCT) (N = 367), and 29 retrospective cohort studies (N = 101,681). The quality of the studies was variable, and only three studies blinded the ultrasound findings to the clinicians. Both EFW >4,000 g (or 90th centile for the gestational age) and AC >36 cm (or 90th centile) had >50% sensitivity for predicting macrosomia (birthweight above 4,000 g or 90th centile) at birth with positive likelihood ratios (LRs) of 8.74 (95% confidence interval [CI] 6.84-11.17) and 7.56 (95% CI 5.85-9.77), respectively. There was significant heterogeneity at predicting macrosomia, which could reflect the different study designs, the characteristics of the included populations, and differences in the formulas used. An EFW >4,000 g (or 90th centile) had 22% sensitivity at predicting shoulder dystocia with a positive likelihood ratio of 2.12 (95% CI 1.34-3.35). There was insufficient data to analyze other markers of neonatal morbidity. CONCLUSIONS In this study, we found that suspected LGA is strongly predictive of the risk of delivering a large infant in low- and mixed-risk populations. However, it is only weakly (albeit statistically significantly) predictive of the risk of shoulder dystocia. There was insufficient data to analyze other markers of neonatal morbidity.
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Development and validation of a machine-learning model for prediction of shoulder dystocia. ULTRASOUND IN OBSTETRICS & GYNECOLOGY : THE OFFICIAL JOURNAL OF THE INTERNATIONAL SOCIETY OF ULTRASOUND IN OBSTETRICS AND GYNECOLOGY 2020; 56:588-596. [PMID: 31587401 DOI: 10.1002/uog.21878] [Citation(s) in RCA: 28] [Impact Index Per Article: 7.0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [MESH Headings] [Track Full Text] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 04/10/2019] [Revised: 09/04/2019] [Accepted: 09/16/2019] [Indexed: 06/10/2023]
Abstract
OBJECTIVES To develop a machine-learning (ML) model for prediction of shoulder dystocia (ShD) and to externally validate the model's predictive accuracy and potential clinical efficacy in optimizing the use of Cesarean delivery in the context of suspected macrosomia. METHODS We used electronic health records (EHR) from the Sheba Medical Center in Israel to develop the model (derivation cohort) and EHR from the University of California San Francisco Medical Center to validate the model's accuracy and clinical efficacy (validation cohort). Subsequent to application of inclusion and exclusion criteria, the derivation cohort included 686 singleton vaginal deliveries, of which 131 were complicated by ShD, and the validation cohort included 2584 deliveries, of which 31 were complicated by ShD. For each of these deliveries, we collected maternal and neonatal delivery outcomes coupled with maternal demographics, obstetric clinical data and sonographic fetal biometry. Biometric measurements and their derived estimated fetal weight were adjusted (aEFW) according to gestational age at delivery. A ML pipeline was utilized to develop the model. RESULTS In the derivation cohort, the ML model provided significantly better prediction than did the current clinical paradigm based on fetal weight and maternal diabetes: using nested cross-validation, the area under the receiver-operating-characteristics curve (AUC) of the model was 0.793 ± 0.041, outperforming aEFW combined with diabetes (AUC = 0.745 ± 0.044, P = 1e-16 ). The following risk modifiers had a positive beta that was > 0.02, i.e. they increased the risk of ShD: aEFW (beta = 0.164), pregestational diabetes (beta = 0.047), prior ShD (beta = 0.04), female fetal sex (beta = 0.04) and adjusted abdominal circumference (beta = 0.03). The following risk modifiers had a negative beta that was < -0.02, i.e. they were protective of ShD: adjusted biparietal diameter (beta = -0.08) and maternal height (beta = -0.03). In the validation cohort, the model outperformed aEFW combined with diabetes (AUC = 0.866 vs 0.784, P = 0.00007). Additionally, in the validation cohort, among the subgroup of 273 women carrying a fetus with aEFW ≥ 4000 g, the aEFW had no predictive power (AUC = 0.548), and the model performed significantly better (0.775, P = 0.0002). A risk-score threshold of 0.5 stratified 42.9% of deliveries to the high-risk group, which included 90.9% of ShD cases and all cases accompanied by maternal or newborn complications. A more specific threshold of 0.7 stratified only 27.5% of the deliveries to the high-risk group, which included 63.6% of ShD cases and all those accompanied by newborn complications. CONCLUSION We developed a ML model for prediction of ShD and, in a different cohort, externally validated its performance. The model predicted ShD better than did estimated fetal weight either alone or combined with maternal diabetes, and was able to stratify the risk of ShD and neonatal injury in the context of suspected macrosomia. Copyright © 2019 ISUOG. Published by John Wiley & Sons Ltd.
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Sonographic Estimated Fetal Weight among Diabetics at ≥ 34 Weeks and Composite Neonatal Morbidity. AJP Rep 2018; 8:e121-e127. [PMID: 29896442 PMCID: PMC5995726 DOI: 10.1055/s-0038-1660433] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [Track Full Text] [Download PDF] [Journal Information] [Submit a Manuscript] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 10/24/2017] [Accepted: 03/22/2018] [Indexed: 11/18/2022] Open
Abstract
Objectives The objective was to assess the composite neonatal morbidity (CNM) among diabetic women with sonographic estimated fetal weight (SEFW) at 10 to 90th versus >90th percentile for gestational age (GA). Study Design The inclusion criteria for this retrospective study were singleton pregnancies at 34 to 41 weeks, complicated by diabetes, and that had SEFW within 4 weeks of delivery. Odds ratios (ORs) with 95% confidence intervals (CI) were calculated. Results Among the 140 cohorts that met the inclusion criteria, 72% had SEFW at 10th to 90th percentile for GA, and 28% at >90th percentile. Compared with women with diabetes with last SEFW at 10th to 90th percentile, those with estimate > 90th percentile for GA had a significantly higher rate of CNM (13 vs. 28%; OR, 2.65; 95% CI, 1.07-6.59). Among 109 diabetic women who labored, the rate of shoulder dystocia was significantly higher with SEFW at >90th percentile for GA than those at 10th to 90th percentile (25 vs. 2%; p = 0.002); the corresponding rate of CNM was 29 versus 10% ( p = 0.02). Conclusion Among diabetic women with SEFW > 90th percentile for GA, CNM was significantly higher than in women with estimate at 10 to 90th percentile. Despite the increased risk of CNM, these newborns did not have long-term morbid sequela.
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Effect of the use of a video tutorial in addition to simulation in learning the maneuvers for shoulder dystocia. J Gynecol Obstet Hum Reprod 2018; 47:151-155. [PMID: 29391292 DOI: 10.1016/j.jogoh.2018.01.004] [Citation(s) in RCA: 5] [Impact Index Per Article: 0.8] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 05/04/2017] [Revised: 01/21/2018] [Accepted: 01/23/2018] [Indexed: 10/18/2022]
Abstract
The development of video tutorials is flourishing and may make it possible to maintain knowledge learned during instruction with simulation. The aim of this study was to assess the effect of adding a video tutorial to a lecture and simulation for learning the maneuvers and protocol for the management of shoulder dystocia. Student midwives and medical students attended a lecture class including instruction about maneuvers and a presentation of an algorithm for the management of shoulder dystocia. They were randomized into two groups. The video group was reminded every two weeks to watch a short tutorial. The control group was reminded to consult the slide show. At the end of two months, they were evaluated by graders. The practice, theory, and global scores of the students in the video group were significantly higher than those of the students in the control group (14.8 vs. 10.4; 5.6 vs. 3.4; and 9.3 vs. 7.0, P<0.001). The scores for the video group improved at the second simulation session, compared with the first (14.8 vs. 9.9; 5.6 vs. 2.9; and 9.3 vs. 7, P<0.001). The addition of a video tutorial improved learning compared to a standard lecture and simulation session alone.
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Abstract
OBJECTIVE To re-examine the risk factors for shoulder dystocia given the increasing rates of obesity and diabetes in pregnant women. DESIGN Retrospective observational study. SETTING Five hospitals located in Wisconsin, Florida, Maryland, Michigan, and Alabama. PARTICIPANTS We evaluated 19,236 births that occurred between April 1, 2011, and July 25, 2013. METHODS Data were collected from electronic medical records and used to evaluate the risk of shoulder dystocia. Data were analyzed using a generalized linear mixed model, which controlled for clustering due to site. RESULTS When insulin was prescribed, gestational diabetes was associated with an increased risk of shoulder dystocia (odds ratio = 2.10, 95% confidence interval [1.01, 4.37]); however, no similar association was found with regard to gestational diabetes treated with glycemic agents or through diet. Use of epidural anesthesia was associated with an increased risk for shoulder dystocia (odds ratio = 3.47, 95% confidence interval [2.72, 4.42]). Being Black or Hispanic, being covered by Medicaid or having no insurance, infant gestational age of 41 weeks or greater, and chronic diabetes were other significant risk factors. CONCLUSION With the changing characteristics of pregnant women, labor and birth clinicians care for more pregnant women who have an increased risk for shoulder dystocia. Our findings may help prospectively identify women with the greatest risk.
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Sonographic Examination of The Fetus Vis-à-Vis Shoulder Dystocia: A Vexing Promise. Clin Obstet Gynecol 2017; 59:795-802. [PMID: 27681691 DOI: 10.1097/grf.0000000000000241] [Citation(s) in RCA: 5] [Impact Index Per Article: 0.7] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Indexed: 11/26/2022]
Abstract
Since antepartum and intrapartum risk factors are poor at identifying women whose labor is complicated by shoulder dystocia, sonographic examination of the fetus holds promise. Though there are several measurements of biometric parameters to identify the parturient who will have shoulder dystocia, none are currently clinically useful. Three national guidelines confirm that sonographic measurements do not serve as appropriate diagnostic tests to identify women who will have shoulder dystocia with or without concurrent injury. In summary, biometric measurements of the fetus should not be used to alter clinical management with the aim of averting shoulder dystocia.
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[Macrosomia, shoulder dystocia and elongation of the brachial plexus: what is the role of caesarean section?]. Pan Afr Med J 2016; 25:217. [PMID: 28270907 PMCID: PMC5326265 DOI: 10.11604/pamj.2016.25.217.10050] [Citation(s) in RCA: 3] [Impact Index Per Article: 0.4] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [MESH Headings] [Track Full Text] [Download PDF] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 06/13/2016] [Accepted: 11/07/2016] [Indexed: 11/24/2022] Open
Abstract
The delivery of a macrosomic infant is associated with a higher risk for maternofoetal complications. Shoulder dystocia is the most feared fetal complication, leading sometimes to a disproportionate use of caesarean section. This study aims to evaluate the interest of preventive caesarean section. We conducted a retrospective study of 400 macrosomic births between February 2010 and December 2012. We also identified cases of infants with shoulder dystocia occurred in 2012 as well as their respective birthweight. Macrosomic infants weighed between 4000g and 4500g in 86.25% of cases and between 4500 and 5000 in 12.25% of cases. Vaginal delivery was performed in 68% of cases. Out of 400 macrosomic births, 9 cases with shoulder dystocia were recorded (2.25%). All of these cases occurred during vaginal delivery. The risk for shoulder dystocia invaginal delivery has increased significantly with the increase in birth weight (p <10-4). The risk for elongation of the brachial plexus was 11 per thousand vaginal deliveries of macrosomic infants. This risk was not correlated with birthweight (p = 0.38). The risk for post-traumatic sequelae was 0.71%. Shoulder dystocia affectd macrosoic infants in 58% of cases. Shoulder dystocia is not a complication exclusively associated with macrosomia. Screening for risky deliveries and increasing training of obstetricians on maneuvers in shoulder dystocia seem to be the best way to avoid complications.
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The FL/AC ratio for prediction of shoulder dystocia in women with gestational diabetes. J Matern Fetal Neonatal Med 2016; 30:2378-2381. [PMID: 27756157 DOI: 10.1080/14767058.2016.1249842] [Citation(s) in RCA: 5] [Impact Index Per Article: 0.6] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Indexed: 10/20/2022]
Abstract
PURPOSE To determine if sonographic variables, including fetal femur length to abdominal circumference (FL/AC) ratio, are associated with shoulder dystocia in women with gestational diabetes. METHODS This was a retrospective cohort study of women with gestational diabetes who delivered singleton infants at Parkland Hospital from 1997 to 2015. Diagnosis and treatment of gestational diabetes were uniform including sonography at 32-36 weeks. Biometric calculations were evaluated for correlation with shoulder dystocia. RESULTS During the study period, 6952 women with gestational diabetes underwent a sonogram at a mean gestation of 34.8 ± 1.8 weeks. Of 4183 vaginal deliveries, 66 experienced shoulder dystocia (16/1000). The FL/AC was associated with shoulder dystocia (p < 0.001) with an AUC of 0.70 (95% CI: 0.64-0.77). This was similar to age-adjusted AC and head circumference to AC ratio (HC/AC) (both with an AUC of 0.72). All other measurements, including estimated fetal weight, were inferior. When examining the 257 women with multiple sonograms after 32 weeks' gestation, FL/AC was stable with advancing gestational age (p = 0.54) whereas age-adjusted AC and HC/AC were not (p < 0.001). CONCLUSIONS The FL/AC is associated with shoulder dystocia in women with gestational diabetes. Additionally, it is a simple ratio that is independent of the reference used and remains stable, unlike age-adjusted AC and HC/AC ratio.
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Abstract
Shoulder dystocia is a complication of vaginal delivery and the primary factor associated with brachial plexus injury. In this review, we discuss the risk factors for shoulder dystocia and propose a framework for the prediction and prevention of the complication. A recommended approach to management when shoulder dystocia occurs is outlined, with review of the maneuvers used to relieve the obstruction with minimal risk of fetal and maternal injury.
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Abstract
OBJECTIVES To synthetize the available evidence regarding the incidence and risk factors of shoulder dystocia (SD). METHODS Consultation of the Medline database, and of national guidelines. RESULTS Shoulder dystocia is defined as a vaginal delivery that requires additional obstetric manoeuvres to deliver the foetus after the head has delivered and gentle traction has failed. With this definition, the incidence of SD in population-based studies is about 0.5-1% of vaginal deliveries. Many risk factors have been described but most associations are not independent, or have not been constantly found. The 2 characteristics consistently found as independent risk factors for SD in the literature are previous SD (incidence of SD of about 10% in parturients with previous SD) and foetal macrosomia. Maternal diabetes and obesity also are associated with a higher risk of SD (2 to 4 folds) but these associations may be completely explained by foetal macrosomia. However, even factors independently and constantly associated with SD do not allow a valid prediction of SD because they are not discriminant; 50 to 70% of SD cases occur in their absence, and the great majority of deliveries when they are present is not associated with SD. CONCLUSION Shoulder dystocia is defined by the need for additional obstetric manoeuvres to deliver the foetus after the head has delivered and gentle traction has failed, and complicates 0.5-1% of vaginal deliveries. Its main risk factors are previous SD and macrosomia, but they are poorly predictive. SD remains a non-predictable obstetrics emergency. Knowledge of SD risk factors should increase the vigilance of clinicians in at-risk contexts.
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Association of Fetal Abdominal-Head Circumference Size Difference With Shoulder Dystocia: A Multicenter Study. AJP Rep 2015; 5:e099-104. [PMID: 26495163 PMCID: PMC4603871 DOI: 10.1055/s-0035-1548544] [Citation(s) in RCA: 7] [Impact Index Per Article: 0.8] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [Track Full Text] [Download PDF] [Figures] [Journal Information] [Submit a Manuscript] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 10/17/2014] [Accepted: 01/29/2015] [Indexed: 11/28/2022] Open
Abstract
Objective This study aims to determine if shoulder dystocia is associated with a difference in the fetal abdominal (AC) to head circumference (HC) of 50 mm or more noted on antenatal ultrasound. Study Design A multicenter matched case-control study was performed comparing women who had shoulder dystocia to controls who did not. Women with vaginal births of live born nonanomalous singletons ≥ 36 weeks of gestation with an antenatal ultrasound within 4 weeks of delivery were included. Controls were matched for gestational age, route of delivery, and diabetes status. Results We identified 181 matched pairs. Only 5% of the fetuses had an AC to HC of ≥ 50 mm. The proportion of AC to HC difference of ≥ 50 mm was significantly higher in shoulder dystocia cases (8%) than controls (1%, p = 0.002). With multivariate regression, the three significant factors associated with shoulder dystocia were AC to HC ≥ 50 mm (odds ratio [OR], 7.3; confidence interval [CI], 1.6-33.3; p = 0.010), femur length (OR, 1.1; CI, 1.0-1.2; p = 0.002), and induced labor (OR, 1.8; CI, 1.1-3.1; p = 0.027). Conclusion A prenatal ultrasound finding of a difference in AC to HC of ≥ 50 mm while uncommon is associated with shoulder dystocia.
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Fetal sonographic characteristics associated with shoulder dystocia in pregnancies of women with type 1 diabetes. Acta Obstet Gynecol Scand 2015; 94:1105-11. [PMID: 26178663 DOI: 10.1111/aogs.12707] [Citation(s) in RCA: 11] [Impact Index Per Article: 1.2] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 10/16/2014] [Accepted: 06/30/2015] [Indexed: 02/03/2023]
Abstract
INTRODUCTION Shoulder dystocia is a rare but severe complication of vaginal delivery and diabetic women are at high risk. The aim of this study was to identify fetal sonographic and maternal glycemic characteristics associated with shoulder dystocia in pregnant women with type 1 diabetes. MATERIAL AND METHODS Twelve cases (5%) of shoulder dystocia among 241 consecutive vaginal deliveries in women with type 1 diabetes followed at Rigshospitalet University Hospital in 2009-2013 were retrospectively identified in a local database. Fetal sonographic and clinical data were compared with 69 women with type 1 diabetes and uncomplicated vaginal deliveries. RESULTS Women experiencing shoulder dystocia compared with women with uncomplicated deliveries had a higher glycated hemoglobin (HbA1c) in early pregnancy [median 7.0% (range 5.9-8.1) vs. 6.6% (range 5.4-10.0, P = 0.04)], whereas in late pregnancy, HbA1c in the two groups of women was comparable [6.1% (range 5.5-6.9) vs. 6.0% (range 4.7-8.4, P = 0.30)]. Fetal biometry at 36 weeks showed a higher estimated fetal weight of 3597 g (range 3051-4069) vs. 2989 g (range 2165-4025), P < 0.001, corresponding to 20% (4-41%) vs. 5% (-20 to 44%) above the mean estimated fetal weight for gestational age (P = 0.002) and a greater abdominal circumference SD score of 2.51 (range 1.56-4.20) vs. 1.33 (range -1.08 to 4.25), P = 0.001). Head circumference was comparable. Vacuum extraction was more frequent during deliveries with shoulder dystocia (58 vs. 17%, P = 0.005). Seven (58%) newborns with shoulder dystocia had brachial plexus injuries, fractures, intra-abdominal bleeding or needed resuscitation. CONCLUSIONS Excessive estimated fetal weight and abdominal circumference at 36 weeks' sonographic examination may help in identifying diabetic women at high risk of later shoulder dystocia.
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Fetal macrosomia: a problem in need of a policy. ULTRASOUND IN OBSTETRICS & GYNECOLOGY : THE OFFICIAL JOURNAL OF THE INTERNATIONAL SOCIETY OF ULTRASOUND IN OBSTETRICS AND GYNECOLOGY 2014; 43:3-10. [PMID: 24395685 DOI: 10.1002/uog.13268] [Citation(s) in RCA: 35] [Impact Index Per Article: 3.5] [Reference Citation Analysis] [MESH Headings] [Track Full Text] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Indexed: 06/03/2023]
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