Extension of a haplotype-based genomic prediction model to manage multi-environment wheat data using environmental covariates

Sparse Phenotyping and Haplotype-Based Models for Genomic Prediction in Rice

The multi-environment genomic selection enables plant breeders to select varieties resilient to diverse environments or particularly adapted to specific environments, which holds a great potential to be used in rice breeding. To realize the multi-environment genomic selection, a robust training set with multi-environment phenotypic data is of necessity. Considering the huge potential of genomic prediction enhanced sparse phenotyping on the cost saving of multi-environment trials (MET), the establishment of a multi-environment training set could also benefit from it. Optimizing the genomic prediction methods is also crucial to enhance the multi-environment genomic selection. Using haplotype-based genomic prediction models is able to capture local epistatic effects which could be conserved and accumulated across generations much like additive effects thereby benefitting breeding. However, previous studies often used fixed length haplotypes composed by a few adjacent molecular markers disregarding the linkage disequilibrium (LD) which is of essential role in determining the haplotype length. In our study, based on three rice populations with different sizes and compositions, we investigated the usefulness and effectiveness of multi-environment training sets with varying phenotyping intensities and different haplotype-based genomic prediction models based on LD-derived haplotype blocks for two agronomic traits, i.e., days to heading (DTH) and plant height (PH). Results showed that phenotyping merely 30% records in multi-environment training set is able to provide a comparable prediction accuracy to high phenotyping intensities; the local epistatic effects are much likely existent in DTH; dividing the LD-derived haplotype blocks into small segments with two or three single nucleotide polymorphisms (SNPs) helps to maintain the predictive ability of haplotype-based models in large populations; modelling the covariances between environments improves genomic prediction accuracy. Our study provides means to improve the efficiency of multi-environment genomic selection in rice.

Haplotype-tagged SNPs improve genomic prediction accuracy for Fusarium head blight resistance and yield-related traits in wheat

Linkage disequilibrium (LD)-based haplotyping with subsequent SNP tagging improved the genomic prediction accuracy up to 0.07 and 0.092 for Fusarium head blight resistance and spike width, respectively, across six different models. Genomic prediction is a powerful tool to enhance genetic gain in plant breeding. However, the method is accompanied by various complications leading to low prediction accuracy. One of the major challenges arises from the complex dimensionality of marker data. To overcome this issue, we applied two pre-selection methods for SNP markers viz. LD-based haplotype-tagging and GWAS-based trait-linked marker identification. Six different models were tested with preselected SNPs to predict the genomic estimated breeding values (GEBVs) of four traits measured in 419 winter wheat genotypes. Ten different sets of haplotype-tagged SNPs were selected by adjusting the level of LD thresholds. In addition, various sets of trait-linked SNPs were identified with different scenarios from the training-test combined and only from the training populations. The BRR and RR-BLUP models developed from haplotype-tagged SNPs had a higher prediction accuracy for FHB and SPW by 0.07 and 0.092, respectively, compared to the corresponding models developed without marker pre-selection. The highest prediction accuracy for SPW and FHB was achieved with tagged SNPs pruned at weak LD thresholds (r² < 0.5), while stringent LD was required for spike length (SPL) and flag leaf area (FLA). Trait-linked SNPs identified only from training populations failed to improve the prediction accuracy of the four studied traits. Pre-selection of SNPs via LD-based haplotype-tagging could play a vital role in optimizing genomic selection and reducing genotyping costs. Furthermore, the method could pave the way for developing low-cost genotyping methods through customized genotyping platforms targeting key SNP markers tagged to essential haplotype blocks.

Prediction of near-term climate change impacts on UK wheat quality and the potential for adaptation through plant breeding

Wheat is a major crop worldwide, mainly cultivated for human consumption and animal feed. Grain quality is paramount in determining its value and downstream use. While we know that climate change threatens global crop yields, a better understanding of impacts on wheat end-use quality is also critical. Combining quantitative genetics with climate model outputs, we investigated UK-wide trends in genotypic adaptation for wheat quality traits. In our approach, we augmented genomic prediction models with environmental characterisation of field trials to predict trait values and climate effects in historical field trial data between 2001 and 2020. Addition of environmental covariates, such as temperature and rainfall, successfully enabled prediction of genotype by environment interactions (G × E), and increased prediction accuracy of most traits for new genotypes in new year cross validation. We then extended predictions from these models to much larger numbers of simulated environments using climate scenarios projected under Representative Concentration Pathways 8.5 for 2050-2069. We found geographically varying climate change impacts on wheat quality due to contrasting associations between specific weather covariables and quality traits across the UK. Notably, negative impacts on quality traits were predicted in the East of the UK due to increased summer temperatures while the climate in the North and South-west may become more favourable with increased summer temperatures. Furthermore, by projecting 167,040 simulated future genotype-environment combinations, we found only limited potential for breeding to exploit predictable G × E to mitigate year-to-year environmental variability for most traits except Hagberg falling number. This suggests low adaptability of current UK wheat germplasm across future UK climates. More generally, approaches demonstrated here will be critical to enable adaptation of global crops to near-term climate change.

Envirome-wide associations enhance multi-year genome-based prediction of historical wheat breeding data

Linking high-throughput environmental data (enviromics) to genomic prediction (GP) is a cost-effective strategy for increasing selection intensity under genotype-by-environment interactions (G × E). This study developed a data-driven approach based on Environment-Phenotype Association (EPA) aimed at recycling important G × E information from historical breeding data. EPA was developed in two applications: (1) scanning a secondary source of genetic variation, weighted from the shared reaction-norms of past-evaluated genotypes and (2) pinpointing weights of the similarity among trial-sites (locations), given the historical impact of each envirotyping data variable for a given site. These results were then used as a dimensionality reduction strategy, integrating historical data to feed multi-environment GP models, which led to the development of four new G × E kernels considering genomics, enviromics, and EPA outcomes. The wheat trial data used included 36 locations, 8 years, and three target populations of environments (TPEs) in India. Four prediction scenarios and six kernel models within/across TPEs were tested. Our results suggest that the conventional GBLUP, without enviromic data or when omitting EPA, is inefficient in predicting the performance of wheat lines in future years. Nevertheless, when EPA was introduced as an intermediary learning step to reduce the dimensionality of the G × E kernels while connecting phenotypic and environmental-wide variation, a significant enhancement of G × E prediction accuracy was evident. EPA revealed that the effect of seasonality makes strategies such as "covariable selection" unfeasible because G × E is year-germplasm specific. We propose that the EPA effectively serves as a "reinforcement learner" algorithm capable of uncovering the effect of seasonality over the reaction-norms, with the benefits of better forecasting the similarities between past and future trialing sites. EPA combines the benefits of dimensionality reduction while reducing the uncertainty of genotype-by-year predictions and increasing the resolution of GP for the genotype-specific level.

Multi-Trait Genomic Prediction Models Enhance the Predictive Ability of Grain Trace Elements in Rice

Multi-trait (MT) genomic prediction models enable breeders to save phenotyping resources and increase the prediction accuracy of unobserved target traits by exploiting available information from non-target or auxiliary traits. Our study evaluated different MT models using 250 rice accessions from Asian countries genotyped and phenotyped for grain content of zinc (Zn), iron (Fe), copper (Cu), manganese (Mn), and cadmium (Cd). The predictive performance of MT models compared to a traditional single trait (ST) model was assessed by 1) applying different cross-validation strategies (CV1, CV2, and CV3) inferring varied phenotyping patterns and budgets; 2) accounting for local epistatic effects along with the main additive effect in MT models; and 3) using a selective marker panel composed of trait-associated SNPs in MT models. MT models were not statistically significantly (p &lt; 0.05) superior to ST model under CV1, where no phenotypic information was available for the accessions in the test set. After including phenotypes from auxiliary traits in both training and test sets (MT-CV2) or simply in the test set (MT-CV3), MT models significantly (p &lt; 0.05) outperformed ST model for all the traits. The highest increases in the predictive ability of MT models relative to ST models were 11.1% (Mn), 11.5 (Cd), 33.3% (Fe), 95.2% (Cu) and 126% (Zn). Accounting for the local epistatic effects using a haplotype-based model further improved the predictive ability of MT models by 4.6% (Cu), 3.8% (Zn), and 3.5% (Cd) relative to MT models with only additive effects. The predictive ability of the haplotype-based model was not improved after optimizing the marker panel by only considering the markers associated with the traits. This study first assessed the local epistatic effects and marker optimization strategies in the MT genomic prediction framework and then illustrated the power of the MT model in predicting trace element traits in rice for the effective use of genetic resources to improve the nutritional quality of rice grain.

Genome-wide association studies dissect the G × E interaction for agronomic traits in a worldwide collection of safflowers (Carthamus tinctorius L.)

Genome-wide association studies were conducted using a globally diverse safflower (Carthamus tinctorius L.) Genebank collection for grain yield (YP), days to flowering (DF), plant height (PH), 500 seed weight (SW), seed oil content (OL), and crude protein content (PR) in four environments (sites) that differed in water availability. Phenotypic variation was observed for all traits. YP exhibited low overall genetic correlations (rGoverall) across sites, while SW and OL had high rGoverall and high pairwise genetic correlations (rGij) across all pairwise sites. In total, 92 marker-trait associations (MTAs) were identified using three methods, single locus genome-wide association studies (GWAS) using a mixed linear model (MLM), the Bayesian multi-locus method (BayesR), and meta-GWAS. MTAs with large effects across all sites were detected for OL, SW, and PR, and MTAs specific for the different water stress sites were identified for all traits. Five MTAs were associated with multiple traits; 4 of 5 MTAs were variously associated with the three traits of SW, OL, and PR. This study provided insights into the phenotypic variability and genetic architecture of important safflower agronomic traits under different environments.

Supplementary Information

The online version contains supplementary material available at 10.1007/s11032-022-01295-8.

Improving Selection Efficiency of Crop Breeding With Genomic Prediction Aided Sparse Phenotyping

Increasing the number of environments for phenotyping of crop lines in earlier stages of breeding programs can improve selection accuracy. However, this is often not feasible due to cost. In our study, we investigated a sparse phenotyping method that does not test all entries in all environments, but instead capitalizes on genomic prediction to predict missing phenotypes in additional environments without extra phenotyping expenditure. The breeders' main interest - response to selection - was directly simulated to evaluate the effectiveness of the sparse genomic phenotyping method in a wheat and a rice data set. Whether sparse phenotyping resulted in more selection response depended on the correlations of phenotypes between environments. The sparse phenotyping method consistently showed statistically significant higher responses to selection, compared to complete phenotyping, when the majority of completely phenotyped environments were negatively (wheat) or lowly positively (rice) correlated and any extension environment was highly positively correlated with any of the completely phenotyped environments. When all environments were positively correlated (wheat) or any highly positively correlated environments existed (wheat and rice), sparse phenotyping did not improved response. Our results indicate that genomics-based sparse phenotyping can improve selection response in the middle stages of crop breeding programs.

Genomic selection can accelerate the biofortification of spring wheat

Genomic selection enabled accurate prediction for the concentration of 13 nutritional element traits in wheat. Wheat biofortification is one of the most sustainable strategies to alleviate mineral deficiency in human diets. Here, we investigated the potential of genomic selection using BayesR and Bayesian ridge regression (BRR) models to predict grain yield (YLD) and the concentration of 13 nutritional elements in grains (B, Ca, Co, Cu, Fe, K, Mg, Mn, Mo, Na, Ni, P and Zn) using a population of 1470 spring wheat lines. The lines were grown in replicated field trials with two times of sowing (TOS) at 3 locations (Narrabri-NSW, all lines; Merredin-WA and Horsham-VIC, 200 core lines). Narrow-sense heritability across environments (locations/TOS) ranged from 0.09 to 0.45. Co, K, Na and Ca showed low to negative genetic correlations with other traits including YLD, while the remaining traits were negatively correlated with YLD. When all environments were included in the reference population, medium to high prediction accuracy was observed for the different traits across environments. BayesR had higher average prediction accuracy for mineral concentrations (r = 0.55) compared to BRR (r = 0.48) across all traits and environments but both methods had comparable accuracies for YLD. We also investigated the utility of one or two locations (reference locations) to predict the remaining location(s), as well as the ability of one TOS to predict the other. Under these scenarios, BayesR and BRR showed comparable performance but with lower prediction accuracy compared to the scenario of predicting reference environments for new lines. Our study demonstrates the potential of genomic selection for enriching wheat grain with nutritional elements in biofortification breeding.

Integrating genomic selection with a genotype plus genotype x environment (GGE) model improves prediction accuracy and computational efficiency

Genotype-by-environment interaction (GEI) is one of the major factors affecting the prediction accuracy of genomic selection (GS) models. Standard models have low power to model complex GEI, and they fail to predict phenotypes in unobserved environments. Here, we developed a novel prediction model that account for GEI, named 3GS, that combines genotype plus genotype × environment (GGE) analysis with GS. The model calculates the principal components (PCs) of the environmental phenotypes using GGE analysis and predict the performance of these PCs using standard GS models before converting the GEBVs of these PCs (pcGEBVs) back to the original phenotypes. We demonstrated three advantages of the new model. First, 3GS showed significantly higher prediction accuracy primarily for deviated environments that have low to negative correlations to other environments. Second, 3GS can predict new genotypes in unobserved environments with high accuracy. Third, the computational complexity of 3GS increases linearly with increasing the number of environments and the population size, unlike the standard models that exhibit exponential increase, making it hundreds of times faster than the standard models for large data sets. 3GS can improve prediction accuracy with minimal resources in modern breeding programmes in which massive populations get multi-environment phenotypes with high-throughput techniques.

Achievements and Challenges of Genomics-Assisted Breeding in Forest Trees: From Marker-Assisted Selection to Genome Editing

Forest tree breeding efforts have focused mainly on improving traits of economic importance, selecting trees suited to new environments or generating trees that are more resilient to biotic and abiotic stressors. This review describes various methods of forest tree selection assisted by genomics and the main technological challenges and achievements in research at the genomic level. Due to the long rotation time of a forest plantation and the resulting long generation times necessary to complete a breeding cycle, the use of advanced techniques with traditional breeding have been necessary, allowing the use of more precise methods for determining the genetic architecture of traits of interest, such as genome-wide association studies (GWASs) and genomic selection (GS). In this sense, main factors that determine the accuracy of genomic prediction models are also addressed. In turn, the introduction of genome editing opens the door to new possibilities in forest trees and especially clustered regularly interspaced short palindromic repeats and CRISPR-associated protein 9 (CRISPR/Cas9). It is a highly efficient and effective genome editing technique that has been used to effectively implement targetable changes at specific places in the genome of a forest tree. In this sense, forest trees still lack a transformation method and an inefficient number of genotypes for CRISPR/Cas9. This challenge could be addressed with the use of the newly developing technique GRF-GIF with speed breeding.

Meta-analysis of genome-wide association studies reveal common loci controlling agronomic and quality traits in a wide range of normal and heat stressed environments

Several stable QTL were detected using metaGWAS analysis for different agronomic and quality traits under 26 normal and heat stressed environments. Heat stress, exacerbated by global warming, has a negative influence on wheat production worldwide and climate resilient cultivars can help mitigate these impacts. Selection decisions should therefore depend on multi-environment experiments representing a range of temperatures at critical stages of development. Here, we applied a meta-genome wide association analysis (metaGWAS) approach to detect stable QTL with significant effects across multiple environments. The metaGWAS was applied to 11 traits scored in 26 trials that were sown at optimal or late times of sowing (TOS1 and TOS2, respectively) at five locations. A total of 2571 unique wheat genotypes (13,959 genotypes across all environments) were included and the analysis conducted on TOS1, TOS2 and both times of sowing combined (TOS1&2). The germplasm was genotyped using a 90 k Infinium chip and imputed to exome sequence level, resulting in 341,195 single nucleotide polymorphisms (SNPs). The average accuracy across all imputed SNPs was high (92.4%). The three metaGWAS analyses revealed 107 QTL for the 11 traits, of which 16 were detected in all three analyses and 23 were detected in TOS1&2 only. The remaining QTL were detected in either TOS1 or TOS2 with or without TOS1&2, reflecting the complex interactions between the environments and the detected QTL. Eight QTL were associated with grain yield and seven with multiple traits. The identified QTL provide an important resource for gene enrichment and fine mapping to further understand the mechanisms of gene × environment interaction under both heat stressed and unstressed conditions.