Predictors of malignancy in high-risk indeterminate (TIR3B) cytopathology thyroid nodules

Improving the TIR3B oncological stratification: try to bridge the gap through a comprehensive presurgical algorithm

PURPOSE

Indeterminate cytology still puzzles clinicians, due to its wide range of oncological risks. According to the Italian SIAPEC-IAP classification, TIR3B cytology holds up to 30% of thyroid cancer, which justifies the surgical indication, even if more than half of cases do not result in a positive histology. The study aim is to identify potential clinical, ultrasound or cytological features able to improve the surgical indication.

METHODS

Retrospective analysis. A consecutive series of TIR3B nodules referred to the Endocrine Unit of Careggi Hospital from 1st May 2014 to 31st December 2021 was considered for the exploratory analysis (Phase 1). Thereafter, a smaller confirmatory sample of consecutive TIR3B diagnosed and referred to surgery from 1st January 2022 to 31st June 2022 was considered to verify the algorithm (Phase 2). The main clinical, ultrasound and cytological features have been collected. A comprehensive stepwise logistic regression was applied to build a prediction algorithm. The histological results represented the final outcome.

RESULTS

Of 599 TIR3B nodules referred to surgery, 451 cases were included in the exploratory analysis. A final score > 14.5 corresponded to an OR = 4.98 (95% CI 3.24-7.65, p < 0.0001) and showed a PPV and NPV of 57% and 79%, respectively. The Phase 2 analysis on a confirmatory sample of 58 TIR3B cytology confirmed that a threshold of 14.5 points has a comparable PPV and NPV of 53% and 80%, respectively.

CONCLUSIONS

A predictive algorithm which considers the main clinical, US and cytological features can significantly improve the oncological stratification of TIR3B cytology.

The American Thyroid Association risk classification of papillary thyroid cancer according to presurgery cytology

OBJECTIVE

To compare the American Thyroid Association (ATA) risk staging of histologically proven papillary thyroid cancer (PTC) in patients who received a presurgery cytologic result of either indeterminate thyroid nodules (ITNs, Bethesda III/IV) or suspicious for malignancy/malignant (TIR 4/5, Bethesda V/VI).

METHODS

Clinical, ultrasonographic, cytological data from patients with histologically diagnosed PTC were retrospectively collected.

RESULTS

Patients were stratified according to the preoperative fine-needle aspiration cytology into 2 groups: 51 ITNs (TIR3A/3B) and 118 suspicious/malignant (TIR 4/5). Male/female ratio, age, and presurgery TSH level were similar between the 2 groups. At ultrasound, TIR 4/5 nodules were significantly more frequently hypoechoic (P = .037), with irregular margins (P = .041), and with microcalcifications (P = .020) and were more frequently classified as high-risk according to the European Thyroid Imaging and Reporting Data System (EU-TIRADS; P = .021). At histology, the follicular PTC subtype was significantly more prevalent among ITNs while classical PTC subtype was more frequent in TIR 4/5 group (P = .002). In TIR 4/5 group, a higher rate of focal vascular invasion (P < .001) and neck lymph node metastasis (P = .028) was observed. Intermediate-risk category according to ATA was significantly more frequent in TIR 4/5 group while low-risk category was more frequently found among ITNs (P = .021), with a higher number of patients receiving radioiodine in TIR 4/5 group (P = .002). At multivariate logistic regression, having a TIR 4/5 cytology was associated with a significant risk of having a higher ATA risk classification as compared to ITN (OR 4.6 [95% CI 1.523-14.007], P = .007), independently from presurgery findings (nodule size at ultrasound, sex, age, and EU-TIRADS score).

CONCLUSIONS

Papillary thyroid cancers recorded among ITNs are likely less aggressive and are generally assessed as at lower risk according to ATA classification.

Ultrasound Parameters Can Accurately Predict the Risk of Malignancy in Patients with "Indeterminate TIR3b" Cytology Nodules: A Prospective Study

The increase in the incidence of thyroid nodules with cytological findings of TIR3b requires the identification of predictive factors of malignancy. We prospectively evaluated 2160 patients from January 2018 to June 2022 and enrolled 103 patients with indeterminate cytology TIR3b nodules who underwent total (73 patients) and hemi-thyroidectomy (30 patients). Among them, 61 had a histological diagnosis of malignancy (30 classic papillary thyroid carcinoma, 19 had follicular papillary thyroid carcinoma variant, 3 had Hurtle cell carcinoma and 9 had follicular thyroid carcinoma), while 42 had a benign histology. Clinical, ultrasonographic and cytological characteristics were recorded. In addition, BRAF mutation was analysed. Patients with a histological diagnosis of malignancy had a higher frequency of nodule diameter ≤11 mm (p = 0.002), hypoechogenicity (p < 0.001), irregular borders (p < 0.001), peri- and intralesional vascular flows (p = 0.004) and microcalcifications (p = 0.001) compared to patients with benign histology. In contrast, patients with benign histology had more frequent nodules with a halo sign (p = 0.012) compared to patients with histological diagnosis of malignancy. No significant differences were found in BRAF mutation between the two groups. Our study suggests that the combination of ultrasonographic and cytological data could be more accurate and reliable than cytology alone in identifying those patients with TIR3b cytology and a histology of malignancy to be referred for thyroidectomy, thus reducing the number of patients undergoing thyroidectomy for benign thyroid disease.

Nomogram to differentiate benign and malignant thyroid nodules in the American College of Radiology Thyroid Imaging Reporting and Data System level 5

OBJECTIVES

To develop and validate a nomogram for differentiating benign and malignant thyroid nodules of American College of Radiology (ACR) Thyroid Imaging Reporting and Data System (TI-RADS) level 5 (TR5) and improving the performance of the guideline.

METHODS

From May 2018 to December 2019, 640 patients with TR5 nodules were retrospectively included in the primary cohort. Univariate and multivariable analyses were performed to determine the risk factors for thyroid cancer. A nomogram was established on the basis of multivariable analyses; the performance of the nomogram was evaluated with respect to discrimination, calibration, and clinical usefulness. The nomogram model was also compared to the ACR score model. External validation was performed and the independent validation cohort contained 201 patients from April 2021 to January 2022.

RESULTS

Multivariable analyses showed that age, tumour location, multifocality, concomitant Hashimoto's disease, neck lymph node status reported by ultrasound (US) and ACR score were the independent risk factors for thyroid cancer (all p < .05). The nomogram showed good discrimination, with an area under the curve (AUC) of 0.786 (95% confidence interval [CI]: 0.742-0.830) and 0.712 (95% CI: 0.615-0.809) in the primary cohort and external validation cohort, respectively. Decision curve analysis demonstrated the clinical usefulness of the model. Compared to the ACR score model, the nomogram showed higher AUC (0.786 vs. 0.626, p < .001) and specificity (0.783 vs. 0.391).

CONCLUSIONS

The presented nomogram model, based on age, tumour features and ACR score, can differentiate benign and malignant thyroid nodules in TR5 and had a high specificity.

Application of dual-source computed tomography in the diagnosis of thyroid cancer and evaluation of biological behaviors

OBJECTIVE

Thyroid cancer (TC) is an extremely prevailing malignant endocrine tumor. Therefore, effective diagnostic tools are necessary. This study explored the application value of dual-source computed tomography (DSCT) in TC diagnosis and biological behavior assessment.

METHODS

This study retrospectively selected 68 TC patients and another 74 benign patients with thyroid adenoma, nodular goiter, or adenomatous hyperplasia. All patients were confirmed by pathological examination and underwent DSCT examination. The iodine concentration (IC) obtained from plain computed tomography (CT) scanning and normalized iodine concentration (NIC) in the arterial phase and venous phase were recorded. The positive expression rates of estrogen receptor alpha (ERα), estrogen receptors beta (ERβ), and Ki67 in pathological tissues were determined by immunohistochemistry, and their correlation with IC in plain CT was assessed by Pearson correlation analysis, respectively. The diagnostic values of IC in plain CT and venous phase NIC in TC patients were evaluated using the receiver operating characteristic curve.

RESULTS

Malignant patients had lower IC in plain DSCT scanning, venous phase NIC, and ERβ, and higher ERα and Ki67 than benign patients. IC level in plain DSCT scanning was inversely-correlated with ERα and Ki-67 positive expression rates, but positively-related to ERβ to different degrees. For the diagnosis of TC patients, the AUC of IC level in plain DSCT was 0.771, with a cut-off value of 1.250 (97.06% sensitivity and 41.89% specificity), and the AUC of venous phase NIC was 0.738, with a cut-off value of 0.825 (100% sensitivity and 43.24% specificity).

CONCLUSION

The IC level obtained from DSCT scanning could assist in the differential diagnosis of malignant and benign thyroid nodules and evaluation of biological behaviors.

Diagnostic accuracy of ultrasonographic features in detecting thyroid cancer in the transition age: a meta-analysis

Context

Significant uncertainty exists about the diagnostic accuracy of ultrasonographic (US) features used to predict the risk of thyroid cancer in the pediatric population. Moreover, there are no specific indications for thyroid nodule evaluation in patients during the transition age.

Objective

The meta-analysis aimed to address the following question: which thyroid nodule US features have the highest accuracy in predicting malignancy in the transition age.

Methods

We performed a meta-analysis of observational/cohort/diagnostic accuracy studies dealing with thyroid nodule sonography, reporting US features, and using histology as a reference standard for the diagnosis of malignancy and histology or cytology for the diagnosis of benignity in the transition age (mean/median age 12-21 years).

Results

The inclusion criteria were met by 14 studies, published between 2005 and 2020, including 1306 thyroid nodules (mean size 17.9 mm) from 1168 subjects. The frequency of thyroid cancer was 36.6%. The US features with the highest diagnostic odds ratio (DOR) for malignancy were the presence of suspicious lymph nodes (DOR: 56.0 (95% CI: 26.0-119.0)), a 'taller than wide' shape of the nodule (6.0 (95% CI: 2.0-16.0)), the presence of microcalcifications (13.0 (95% CI: 6.0-29.0)) and irregular margins (9.0 (95% CI: 5.0-17.0)). Heterogeneity among the studies was substantial.

Conclusions

Following the diagnosis of a thyroid nodule in the transition age, a thorough US examination of the neck is warranted. The detection of suspicious lymph nodes and/or thyroid nodules with a 'taller than wide' shape, microcalcifications, and irregular margins is associated with the highest risk of malignancy in the selection of nodules candidates for biopsy.

Predictive factors of malignancy in pediatric patients with thyroid nodules and performance of the Italian classification (SIAPEC 2014) in the outcome of the cytological FNA categories

PURPOSE

The rate of malignancy (ROM) among pediatric studies using the Bethesda System is 39.5% and 41.5% for atypia of undetermined significance/follicular lesion of undetermined significance and for suspected follicular neoplasm, respectively. Data reported on the basis of Bethesda System showed lower ROM in adults with indeterminate nodules (30.5 and 28.9% respectively). Studies on adults based on the Italian Society of Anatomic Pathology and Cytology (SIAPEC) classification, report ROM of 14.2% for TIR3a and 44.6% for TIR3b category, showing greater sensitivity in detecting malignancy. To date, no performance data are available about SIAPEC classification in pediatric age.

METHODS

Retrospective data were collected from 200 pediatric subjects with thyroid nodules in the period 2000-2020.

RESULTS

The distribution of cytological categories after fine needle aspiration biopsy (FNAB) was 7 TIR1, 4 TIR1c, 22 TIR2, 14 TIR3a, 9 TIR3b, 3 TIR4, and 16 TIR5. The surgical approach was performed in 40/200 subjects, with total ROM of 65% (0% for TIR1-TIR3a, 77.8% for TIR3b, and 100% for TIR4-TIR5). Total FNAB accuracy was 95%, while the sensibility and specificity were 92.3 and 92.6%, respectively.

CONCLUSIONS

The reported data seem to confirm a greater sensitivity of SIAPEC classification to identify malignancy within the indeterminate category also in pediatric age and not only in adulthood. This finding may orient clinicians toward clinical follow-up for the indeterminate TIR3a group and toward surgical approach with total thyroidectomy in the indeterminate TIR3b group, although this indication should be confirmed in further national multicenter studies including larger cohorts.

TIRADS, SRE and SWE in INDETERMINATE thyroid nodule characterization: Which has better diagnostic performance?

Purpose

To assess Strain Ratio (SRE) and Shear Wave Elastography (SWE) accuracy alone and with TIRADS classification, for the risk stratification of indeterminate thyroid nodules.

Materials and methods

128 Patients with 128 indeterminate nodules candidates for thyroidectomy underwent preoperative staging neck ultrasound and were classified according to K-TIRADS score. After TIRADS evaluation, semi-quantitative (SRE) and quantitative (SWE expressed in kPa) elastosonography were performed and relative diagnostic performances, alone and in combination, were compared through ROC curves analysis. In order to maximize the SRE and SWE sensitivity and specificity, their cut-off values were calculated using the Liu test. Bonferroni test was used to evaluate statistically significant differences with a p value < 0.05.

Results

Sensitivity, specificity, PPV and NPV were, respectively, 71.4%, 82.4%, 62.5%, 87.5% for K-TIRADS baseline US, 85.7%, 94.1%, 85.7%, 94.1% for SRE and 57.1%, 79.4%, 53.3%, 81.8% for SWE (kPa expressed). SRE evaluation showed the best diagnostic accuracy compared to the SWE (kPa expressed) (p < 0.05) and to the K-TIRADS (p > 0.05). The association of SRE with conventional ultrasound with K-TIRADS score increased sensitivity (92.9% vs 71.4%) but decreased the specificity than conventional US alone (76.5% vs 82.4%).

Conclusion

Strain Elastosonography can be associated with K-TIRADS US examination in the thyroid nodule characterization with indeterminate cytology; in fact, adding the SRE to K-TIRADS assessment significantly increases its sensitivity and negative predictive value. However, further multicenter studies on larger population are warranted.

Outcome and diagnostic reproducibility of the thyroid cytology "indeterminate categories" SIAPEC/SIE 2014 in a consecutive series of 302 cases

PURPOSE

The clinical impact of the SIAPEC/SIE 2014 classification for thyroid cytology has been addressed in few studies that evaluated the malignancy rate and the relative prevalence of each category. No study analyzed its intra-observer and inter-observer reproducibility, so far.

METHODS

We retrospectively collected all "indeterminate" lesions diagnosed before (2011-2014) and after (2015-2018) the application of the SIAPEC/SIE 2014 classification at our Institution. Their relative malignancy risks were calculated based on available histological diagnoses. Cytological and clinical features of TIR3A were compared with the surgical outcome. Finally, a large set of samples was re-evaluated in blind of the original cytological and histological diagnoses by two pathologists, independently.

RESULTS

The prevalence of "indeterminate" diagnoses increased in years 2015-2018 (302/1482, 21% with 14% of TIR3A and 7% TIR3B categories) compared to years 2011-2014 (261/1680, 16%). Surgery was performed in 27% TIR3A and in 97% TIR3B cases. Malignancy rates were 40% for TIR3B and 17% for TIR3A, but were greatly influenced by the adoption of the WHO 2017 re-classification of encapsulated follicular-patterned lesions (decreasing to 28% and 6%, respectively). No criteria except for tumor size were associated to malignancy in TIR3A category. Intra-observer agreement of the experienced pathologist was 122/141 (86%), whereas inter-observer agreement between the expert and in-training pathologist was 95/141 (67%).

CONCLUSIONS

In this real-life experience, the sub-classification of TIR3A and TIR3B slightly increased the overall prevalence of "indeterminate" diagnoses. Malignancy rates were higher than estimated for both TIR3A and TIR3B categories. Agreement among observers highly depended on pathologist's training.

Malignancy Analyses of Thyroid Nodules in Patients Subjected to Surgery with Cytological- and Ultrasound-Based Risk Stratification Systems

The fine needle aspiration (FNA) cytology is the gold standard for the preoperative diagnosis of thyroid cancer. However, up to 30% of FNA examinations yield nondiagnostic or indeterminate results and this complicates patient management. Clinical features and ultrasound (US) patterns, including US risk stratification systems, could be useful in the preoperative diagnostic workup and prediction of malignancy, but the evidences are not univocal. Methods: 400 consecutive patients subjected to thyroid surgery were retrospectively enrolled at our institution in Calabria, Southern Italy. Preoperative US and FNA cytological descriptions, formulated according to the “Italian consensus for reporting thyroid fine-needle aspiration cytology” (ICCRTC) classification and three US risk stratification systems (those developed by the American Association of Clinical Endocrinologists, American College of Endocrinology and Associazione Medici Endocrinologi (AACE/ACE/AME), American Thyroid Association (ATA), and American College of Radiology (ACR-TIRADS)), were collected, along with histological results. Results: 147 thyroid cancer cases, in large majority papillary carcinomas, were detected on final histological examination. Almost two-thirds of patients subjected to thyroid surgery for either benign or malignant lesions were female. Patient’s age ≤20 years and between 21–30 years were clinical features associated with increased risk of thyroid cancer in logistic regression analyses. US features associated with thyroid cancer included irregular margins, solid composition, microcalcifications, and marked hypoechogenicity. The AACE/ACE/AME, ATA, and ACR-TIRADS risk categories, corresponding to specific US patterns, were strong predictors of malignancy in both genders, but not in nodules with indeterminate cytology. A measured difference between the longitudinal (L) and the anteroposterior (AP) diameter >5 mm, a proxy for a parallel-oriented oval shape of a nodule, emerged as a robust protective factor against thyroid cancer (OR 0.288 (95%CI 0.817–0.443); p < 0.001), regardless of cytological risk. Conclusions: Some, but not all, well-established predictors of TC have been confirmed in this study. Controversy surrounds the diagnostic performance of US risk stratification systems for the detection of thyroid cancer in the subgroup of nodules with indeterminate cytology, suggesting their use only to set the thresholds for FNA. A measured difference between L and AP diameters >5 mm may represent an additional and practical tool for ruling out malignancy in thyroid nodules, with the potential to reduce unnecessary surgical procedures.