Taking a Step in the Right Direction for Radiation Oncology

No Longer a Match: Trends in Radiation Oncology National Resident Matching Program (NRMP) Data from 2010-2020 and Comparison Across Specialties

PURPOSE

To report trends in the number and types of applicants and matched trainees to radiation oncology in comparison to other specialties participating in the National Resident Matching Program (NRMP) between 2010 and 2020.

METHODS AND MATERIALS

Data from the NRMP and Electronic Residency Application System (ERAS) were obtained for 18 medical specialties between 2010 and 2020. We assessed the numbers and types of applicants and matched trainees relative to available positions in the NRMP and Supplemental Offer and Acceptance Program (SOAP).

RESULTS

In the 2020 NRMP, 122 US MD senior graduates preferentially ranked radiation oncology, a significant decrease from a median of 187 between 2010 to 2019 (interquartile range [IQR], 170-192; P < .001). Across all 18 specialties, radiation oncology experienced the greatest declines in the 2020 NRMP cycle relative to 2010 to 2019, in both the number of ERAS applicants from the United States and Canada (-31%) and the percentage of positions filled by US MD or DO senior graduates (-28%). Of 189 available positions, 81% (n = 154) filled in the NRMP prior to the SOAP, of which 65% (n = 122) were "matched" by US MD senior graduates who preferentially ranked radiation oncology as their top choice of specialty, representing a significant decrease from a median of 92% between 2010 to 2019 (IQR, 88%-94%; P = .002). The percentages of radiation oncology programs and positions unfilled in the NRMP prior to the SOAP were significantly increased in 2020 compared with 2010 to 2019 (programs: 29% vs 8% [IQR, 5%-8%; P < .001]; positions: 19% vs 4% [IQR, 2%-4%; P <.001]). Despite >99% (n = 127 of 128) of US MD or DO senior applicants preferring radiation oncology successfully matching to a radiation oncology position in the 2020 NRMP, 16 of 35 remaining unfilled positions were filled via the SOAP. Radiation oncology was the top user of the SOAP across all specialties participating in the 2020 NRMP, filling 15% of total positions versus a median of 0.9% (IQR, 0.3%-2.3%; P <.001).

CONCLUSIONS

The supply of radiation oncology residency positions now far exceeds demand by graduating US medical students. Efforts to nullify a market correction revealed by medical student behavior via continued reliance on the SOAP to fill historical levels of training positions may not be in the best of interest of trainees, individual programs, or the specialty as a whole.

Radiation Oncology Resident Quality by National Resident Matching Program Metrics From 2007 to 2018

PURPOSE

To quantify how the quality of US medical students accepted to radiation oncology (RO) training programs, as defined by National Resident Matching Program (NRMP) metrics, has changed over time.

METHODS AND MATERIALS

We examined NRMP data of senior US medical students matched into RO training programs from 2007 to 2018. Metrics include United States Medical Licensing Exam (USMLE) Step 1 and 2-Clinical Knowledge scores, research output, percentage with PhD, and percentage in Alpha Omega Alpha (AOA), among others. Linear regression analysis assessed the statistical significance of changes in available metrics of matched RO residents over time. The Student t test and χ² test compared quality metrics between matched students in RO versus all other specialties.

RESULTS

From 2007 to 2018, the mean USMLE Step 1 and 2-Clinical Knowledge for RO residents significantly increased from 235 to 247 (1.0 point/year; 95% confidence interval [CI], 0.70-1.52; P = .002) and from 237 to 253 (1.3 points/year; 95% CI, 1.27-1.62; P <.001), respectively. The mean number of research experiences and abstracts/presentations/publications increased from 3.7 to 6.1 (0.2/year; 95% CI, 0.12-0.29; P = .003) and from 6.3 to 15.6 (0.78/year; 95% CI, 0.60-1.04; P <.001), respectively. The percentage of RO residents inducted into AOA increased from 24.2% to 35.2%, whereas those with a PhD remained stable (∼21%). Matched RO residents had statistically superior metrics versus all other specialties for USMLE Step 1 scores (mean +13.5 points; 95% CI, 7.26-19.67; P <.001), research experience (mean +2.04; 95% CI, 1.11-2.97; P <.001), abstracts/presentations/publications (mean +6.80; 95% CI, 3.38-10.22; P = .001), percentage with a PhD (22.2% vs 4.1%; P <.001), and percentage in AOA (29.5% vs 15.8%; P <.001).

CONCLUSIONS

RO resident quality, defined by routinely reported NRMP metrics, increased from 2007 to 2018. Furthermore, RO resident quality is significantly higher than in all other specialties combined for most metrics. Whether the recent decline in medical student interest in RO will correlate with reduced NRMP quality metrics is unknown.