Rapid COVID-19 rebound in a severe COVID-19 patient during 20-day course of Paxlovid

Adverse Events of SARS-CoV-2 Therapy: A Pharmacovigilance Study of the FAERS Database

BACKGROUND

Over the past 2 years of the several strategies recommended to help fight COVID-19, nirmatrelvir/ritonavir is a novel drug shown in the EPIC-HR phase 2 to 3 clinical trial to lower COVID-19-related death or hospitalization at day 28 when compared with placebo.

OBJECTIVE

Our study's aim was to explore the reported adverse events (AEs) associated with nirmatrelvir/ritonavir use for COVID-19.

METHOD

We conducted a retrospective analysis using the FDA Adverse Event Reporting System (FAERS) database for AEs, listing nirmatrelvir/ritonavir as the primary drug between January and June 2022. The primary outcome was the incidence of reported AEs associated with nirmatrelvir/ritonavir. The OpenFDA database was queried using Python 3.10 to collect the AEs and Stata 17 was used to analyze the database. Adverse events were analyzed by associated medication, with "Covid-19" excluded.

RESULTS

A total of 8098 reports were identified between January and June 2022. Most reported complaints in the AE system were COVID-19 and disease recurrence. The most common symptomatic AEs were dysgeusia, diarrhea, cough, fatigue, and headache. Event rates significantly rose between April and May. Disease recurrence and dysgeusia were the most commonly reported complaints for the top 8 concomitant drugs identified. Cardiac arrest, tremor, akathisia, and death were reported in 1, 3, 67, and 5 cases, respectively.

CONCLUSIONS AND RELEVANCE

This is the first retrospective study done on reported AEs associated with nirmatrelvir/ritonavir use for COVID-19. COVID-19 and disease recurrence were the most reported AEs. Further monitoring of the FAERS database is warranted to periodically reassess the safety profile of this medication.

A community effort in SARS-CoV-2 drug discovery

The COVID-19 pandemic continues to pose a substantial threat to human lives and is likely to do so for years to come. Despite the availability of vaccines, searching for efficient small-molecule drugs that are widely available, including in low- and middle-income countries, is an ongoing challenge. In this work, we report the results of an open science community effort, the "Billion molecules against COVID-19 challenge", to identify small-molecule inhibitors against SARS-CoV-2 or relevant human receptors. Participating teams used a wide variety of computational methods to screen a minimum of 1 billion virtual molecules against 6 protein targets. Overall, 31 teams participated, and they suggested a total of 639,024 molecules, which were subsequently ranked to find 'consensus compounds'. The organizing team coordinated with various contract research organizations (CROs) and collaborating institutions to synthesize and test 878 compounds for biological activity against proteases (Nsp5, Nsp3, TMPRSS2), nucleocapsid N, RdRP (only the Nsp12 domain), and (alpha) spike protein S. Overall, 27 compounds with weak inhibition/binding were experimentally identified by binding-, cleavage-, and/or viral suppression assays and are presented here. Open science approaches such as the one presented here contribute to the knowledge base of future drug discovery efforts in finding better SARS-CoV-2 treatments.

Mitigating COVID-19 Mortality and Morbidity in China's Aging Population: A Focus on Available Medications and Future Developments

The COVID-19 pandemic, often referred to as the geropandemic, has put immense pressure on global healthcare systems worldwide, leading to a rush in the development and approval of medications for the treatment of the viral infection. Clinical trials on efficacy and safety had a limited spectrum on inclusion and endpoints because of the urgent need for fast results. The chronologically and biologically aged population is especially at risk for severe or lethal disease, as well as treatment-associated toxicity. In China, the growing elderly population segment has been a focus in public health measurements of COVID-19, guiding towards herd immunity with a mild variant, thus minimizing overall deaths and morbidity. While the COVID-19 pandemic has now been reclassified and the virus weakened, there is a clear need for novel therapies to protect the elderly. This paper reviews the current safety and efficacy of available COVID-19 medications in China, with a specific focus on 3CL protease inhibitors and the aging population. The current COVID wave in China has demonstrated a significant impact on the elderly and the need for new drugs that are effective at low doses and can be used alone, without harmful side effects, generation of viral resistance, and drug-drug interactions. The rush to develop and approve COVID-19 medications has brought up important questions about the balance between speed and caution, resulting in a pipeline of novel therapies now moving through clinical trials, including third-generation 3CL protease inhibitors. A majority of those therapeutics are being developed in China.

Unsupervised deep learning for molecular dynamics simulations: a novel analysis of protein-ligand interactions in SARS-CoV-2 Mpro

Molecular dynamics (MD) simulations, which are central to drug discovery, offer detailed insights into protein-ligand interactions. However, analyzing large MD datasets remains a challenge. Current machine-learning solutions are predominantly supervised and have data labelling and standardisation issues. In this study, we adopted an unsupervised deep-learning framework, previously benchmarked for rigid proteins, to study the more flexible SARS-CoV-2 main protease (Mpro). We ran MD simulations of Mpro with various ligands and refined the data by focusing on binding-site residues and time frames in stable protein conformations. The optimal descriptor chosen was the distance between the residues and the center of the binding pocket. Using this approach, a local dynamic ensemble was generated and fed into our neural network to compute Wasserstein distances across system pairs, revealing ligand-induced conformational differences in Mpro. Dimensionality reduction yielded an embedding map that correlated ligand-induced dynamics and binding affinity. Notably, the high-affinity compounds showed pronounced effects on the protein's conformations. We also identified the key residues that contributed to these differences. Our findings emphasize the potential of combining unsupervised deep learning with MD simulations to extract valuable information and accelerate drug discovery.

Clinical characteristics of COVID-19 rebound after nirmatrelvir-ritonavir or molnupiravir therapy: A prospective cohort study

The clinical characteristics of the rebound phenomenon after antiviral therapy in patients with Coronavirus disease-2019 (COVID-19) are largely unknown. There are few data comparing the rebound phenomenon after molnupiravir therapy to that after nirmatrelvir-ritonavir therapy. We investigated the incidence and risk factors associated with COVID-19 rebound after nirmatrelvir-ritonavir or molnupiravir therapy during the Omicron era. This prospective cohort study enrolled patients with mild-to-moderate COVID-19 who received nirmatrelvir-ritonavir or molnupiravir. We conducted weekly questionnaires of symptom scores from day 0 to day 28, with an additional day when patients experienced reappearing symptoms. We defined COVID-19 rebound as when patients experienced a 50% increase in symptom scores compared to the lowest symptom score between days 0 and 14. Among the 150 patients, 93 (62%) and 57 (38%) received nirmatrelvir-ritonavir therapy and molnupiravir, respectively. Of these, 11 patients (7.3%; 95% CI, 3.1-11.5) experienced COVID-19 rebound. The median duration from antiviral therapy to rebound was 12 days. Patients with clinical rebound had a higher symptom score at antiviral therapy initiation than those without (median, 5 vs 4; P = .02). There was no significant difference in the clinical rebounds associated with nirmatrelvir-ritonavir and molnupiravir therapy (5.4% vs 10.5%; P = .39). Approximately one-tenth of patients with mild-to-moderate COVID-19 who received antiviral therapy experienced rebound phenomena after treatment. Regardless of antiviral therapy type, high initial symptom scores were associated with a more frequent rebound phenomenon.

Substitutions in SARS-CoV-2 Mpro Selected by Protease Inhibitor Boceprevir Confer Resistance to Nirmatrelvir

Nirmatrelvir, which targets the SARS-CoV-2 main protease (Mpro), is the first-in-line drug for prevention and treatment of severe COVID-19, and additional Mpro inhibitors are in development. However, the risk of resistance development threatens the future efficacy of such direct-acting antivirals. To gain knowledge on viral correlates of resistance to Mpro inhibitors, we selected resistant SARS-CoV-2 under treatment with the nirmatrelvir-related protease inhibitor boceprevir. SARS-CoV-2 selected during five escape experiments in VeroE6 cells showed cross-resistance to nirmatrelvir with up to 7.3-fold increased half-maximal effective concentration compared to original SARS-CoV-2, determined in concentration-response experiments. Sequence analysis revealed that escape viruses harbored Mpro substitutions L50F and A173V. For reverse genetic studies, these substitutions were introduced into a cell-culture-infectious SARS-CoV-2 clone. Infectivity titration and analysis of genetic stability of cell-culture-derived engineered SARS-CoV-2 mutants showed that L50F rescued the fitness cost conferred by A173V. In the concentration-response experiments, A173V was the main driver of resistance to boceprevir and nirmatrelvir. Structural analysis of Mpro suggested that A173V can cause resistance by making boceprevir and nirmatrelvir binding less favorable. This study contributes to a comprehensive overview of the resistance profile of the first-in-line COVID-19 treatment nirmatrelvir and can thus inform population monitoring and contribute to pandemic preparedness.

Paxlovid as a potential treatment for long COVID

INTRODUCTION

On 31 July 2023, the United States Department of Health and Human Services announced the formation of the Office of Long COVID Research and Practice and the United States National Institutes of Health opened enrollment for RECOVER-Vital, a randomized study to evaluate new treatment options for long Coronavirus (long COVID).

AREAS COVERED

The RECOVER Initiative is a $1.15 billion research platform intended to describe, categorize, treat, and prevent long-term symptoms following infection by Severe Acute Respiratory Syndrome Coronavirus 2 (SARS‑CoV‑2), the virus that causes Coronavirus (COVID-19). More than 200 symptoms have been associated with long COVID, potentially affecting nearly all body systems, and current estimates suggest that between 7 million and 23 million Americans have developed long COVID. However, there are no approved treatments for this condition.

EXPERT OPINION

The first prospective, randomized study of the RECOVER research initiative, RECOVER-Vital, will evaluate the SARS-CoV-2 antiviral nirmatrelvir/ritonavir (Paxlovid) as a potential treatment for long COVID. This manuscript explores what is known about Paxlovid to treat and prevent long COVID and examines the rationale for addressing this condition with an antiviral agent.

Benefits of near-universal vaccination and treatment access to manage COVID-19 burden in the United States

BACKGROUND

As we continue the fourth year of the COVID-19 epidemic, SARS-CoV-2 infections still cause high morbidity and mortality in the United States. During 2020-2022, COVID-19 was one of the leading causes of death in the United States and by far the leading cause among infectious diseases. Vaccination uptake remains low despite this being an effective burden reducing intervention. The development of COVID-19 therapeutics provides hope for mitigating severe clinical outcomes. This modeling study examines combined strategies of vaccination and treatment to reduce the burden of COVID-19 epidemics over the next decade.

METHODS

We use a validated mathematical model to evaluate the reduction of incident cases, hospitalized cases, and deaths in the United States through 2033 under various levels of vaccination and treatment coverage. We assume that future seasonal transmission patterns for COVID-19 will be similar to those of influenza virus and account for the waning of infection-induced immunity and vaccine-induced immunity in a future with stable COVID-19 dynamics. Due to uncertainty in the duration of immunity following vaccination or infection, we consider three exponentially distributed waning rates, with means of 365 days (1 year), 548 days (1.5 years), and 730 days (2 years). We also consider treatment failure, including rebound frequency, as a possible treatment outcome.

RESULTS

As expected, universal vaccination is projected to eliminate transmission and mortality. Under current treatment coverage (13.7%) and vaccination coverage (49%), averages of 81,000-164,600 annual reported deaths, depending on duration of immunity, are expected by the end of this decade. Annual mortality in the United States can be reduced below 50,000 per year with 52-80% annual vaccination coverage and below 10,000 annual deaths with 59-83% annual vaccination coverage, depending on duration of immunity. Universal treatment reduces hospitalizations by 88.6% and deaths by 93.1% under current vaccination coverage. A reduction in vaccination coverage requires a comparatively larger increase in treatment coverage in order for hospitalization and mortality levels to remain unchanged.

CONCLUSIONS

Adopting universal vaccination and universal treatment goals in the United States will likely lead to a COVID-19 mortality burden below 50,000 deaths per year, a burden comparable to that of influenza virus.

The Coronavirus Disease 2019 Rebound Study: A Prospective Cohort Study to Evaluate Viral and Symptom Rebound Differences in Participants Treated With Nirmatrelvir Plus Ritonavir Versus Untreated Controls

BACKGROUND

The uptake of nirmatrelvir plus ritonavir (NPR) in patients with coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) has been limited by concerns around the rebound phenomenon despite the scarcity of evidence around its epidemiology. The purpose of this study was to prospectively compare the epidemiology of rebound in NPR-treated and untreated participants with acute COVID-19 infection.

METHODS

We designed a prospective, observational study in which participants who tested positive for COVID-19 and were clinically eligible for NPR were recruited to be evaluated for either viral or symptom clearance and rebound. Participants were assigned to the treatment or control group based on their decision to take NPR. Following initial diagnosis, both groups were provided 12 rapid antigen tests and asked to test on a regular schedule for 16 days and answer symptom surveys. Viral rebound based on test results and COVID-19 symptom rebound based on patient-reported symptoms were evaluated.

RESULTS

Viral rebound incidence was 14.2% in the NPR treatment group (n = 127) and 9.3% in the control group (n = 43). Symptom rebound incidence was higher in the treatment group (18.9%) compared to controls (7.0%). There were no notable differences in viral rebound by age, gender, preexisting conditions, or major symptom groups during the acute phase or at the 1-month interval.

CONCLUSIONS

This preliminary report suggests that rebound after clearance of test positivity or symptom resolution is higher than previously reported. However, notably we observed a similar rate of rebound in both the NPR treatment and control groups. Large studies with diverse participants and extended follow-up are needed to better understand the rebound phenomena.

Interferon lambda as a potential treatment for COVID-19

INTRODUCTION

Pegylated interferon lambda substantially reduced the risk of COVID-19-related hospitalizations or emergency room visits in a recent phase 3, multi-center, randomized, double-blind, placebo-controlled study of high-risk, non-hospitalized adult patients with SARS-CoV-2 infection compared to treatment with placebo.

AREAS COVERED

Interferons are a family of signaling molecules produced as part of the innate immune response to viral infections. The administration of exogenous interferon may limit disease progression in patients with COVID-19.

EXPERT OPINION

Interferons have been used to treat viral infections, including hepatitis B and hepatitis C, and malignancies such as non-Hodgkin's lymphoma, as well as the autoimmune condition multiple sclerosis. This manuscript examines what is known about the role of interferon lambda in the treatment of COVID-19, including potential limitations, and explores how this approach may be used in the future.

Benefits of near-universal vaccination and treatment access to manage COVID-19 burden in the United States

Background

As we enter the fourth year of the COVID-19 pandemic, SARS-CoV-2 infections still cause high morbidity and mortality in the United States. During 2020-2022, COVID-19 was one of the leading causes of death in the United States and by far the leading cause among infectious diseases. Vaccination uptake remains low despite this being an effective burden reducing intervention. The development of COVID-19 therapeutics provides hope for mitigating severe clinical outcomes. This modeling study examines combined strategies of vaccination and treatment to reduce the burden of COVID-19 epidemics over the next decade.

Methods

We use a validated mathematical model to evaluate the reduction of incident cases, hospitalized cases, and deaths in the United States through 2033 under various levels of vaccination and treatment coverage. We assume that future seasonal transmission patterns for COVID-19 will be similar to those of influenza virus. We account for the waning of infection-induced immunity and vaccine-induced immunity in a future with stable COVID-19 dynamics. Due to uncertainty in the duration of immunity following vaccination or infection, we consider two exponentially-distributed waning rates, with means of 365 days (one year) and 548 days (1.5 years). We also consider treatment failure, including rebound frequency, as a possible treatment outcome.

Results

As expected, universal vaccination is projected to eliminate transmission and mortality. Under current treatment coverage (13.7%) and vaccination coverage (49%), averages of 89,000 annual deaths (548-day waning) and 120,000 annual deaths (365-day waning) are expected by the end of this decade. Annual mortality in the United States can be reduced below 50,000 per year with >81% annual vaccination coverage, and below 10,000 annual deaths with >84% annual vaccination coverage. Universal treatment reduces hospitalizations by 88% and deaths by 93% under current vaccination coverage. A reduction in vaccination coverage requires a comparatively larger increase in treatment coverage in order for hospitalization and mortality levels to remain unchanged.

Conclusions

Adopting universal vaccination and universal treatment goals in the United States will likely lead to a COVID-19 mortality burden below 50,000 deaths per year, a burden comparable to that of influenza virus.

The effect of nirmatrelvir-ritonavir on viral clearance and length of hospital stay in patients infected with SARS-CoV-2 omicron variants

BACKGROUND

The pandemic of coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) has caused heavy burdens on national healthcare systems. Nirmatrelvir-ritonavir (Paxlovid) may be one of the most promising therapeutic drugs, with reports of up to 89% reduction rates in hospitalization risk and death among patients with mild-to-moderate COVID-19 who are at risk of developing severe disease. However, limited studies have investigated the effects of this class of drugs on viral clearance and length of hospital stay.

METHODS

In this study, we retrospectively analyzed the characteristics of patients infected with the Omicron variant of severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) and investigated the effects of oral nirmatrelvir-ritonavir on viral clearance and length of hospital stay in mild-to-moderate COVID-19 patients at high risk for progression to severe disease.

RESULTS

The median SARS-CoV-2 negative conversion time was 16 (13-20) versus 13 (10-16) days (control group versus nirmatrelvir-ritonavir group, p < 0.001), the median length of hospital stay was 13 (10-16) versus 12 (13-14) days (control group versus nirmatrelvir-ritonavir group, p = 0.01), and the SARS-CoV-2 negative conversion time and length of hospital stay were significantly shorter in the nirmatrelvir-ritonavir group than in the control group. When controlling for hypertension, chronic kidney disease, severity status of COVID-19, use of antibiotic agent, and COVID-19 vaccine received, multiple stepwise linear regression analysis showed that nirmatrelvir-ritonavir treatment was negatively associated with the SARS-CoV-2 negative conversion time and length of hospital stay.

CONCLUSION

Nirmatrelvir-ritonavir reduces the viral clearance time and length of hospital stay in hospitalized patients with COVID-19. Nirmatrelvir-ritonavir might be a promising drug to reduce the virus load and the heavy burden of healthcare systems.

Safety and Efficacy of Paxlovid Against Omicron Variants of Coronavirus Disease 2019 in Elderly Patients

INTRODUCTION

Elderly patients are the most affected and vulnerable to COVID-19 and effective therapeutic interventions are urgently required. We clarified the safety and efficacy of Paxlovid in the treatment of elderly patients with coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19).

METHODS

Patients aged over 60 years and with mild to moderate COVID-19 were admitted to the Zhongshan Hospital MinHang MeiLong Branch, Fudan University and received either Paxlovid treatment or only conventional therapy, between April 1 and May 31, 2022. Viral shedding time, duration of hospital stay, disease progression, and adverse events were analyzed, and multivariate Cox regression analysis was performed to detect the independent high-risk factors for COVID-19 progression in the patients.

RESULTS

A total of 163 (82 and 81 in the treatment and control groups, respectively) patients had a median age of 82 (71-89) years, and 89.0% had at least one concomitant disease. The duration of hospitalization reduced from 15 to 13 days, and viral shedding time reduced from 20 to 16.5 days after Paxlovid treatment. The differences of these two variables between the groups were significant (p < 0.01). Moreover, no serious adverse events or obvious changes in laboratory test results were observed in patients treated with Paxlovid. One patient (1.2%) treated with Paxlovid experienced rebound 56 days after negative measurement. Multivariate analysis showed that Paxlovid therapy, age, hemoglobin, and nucleic acid Ct values at admission were independent risk factors for hospitalization within 14 days, and the differences were significant (p < 0.01).

CONCLUSION

The use of Paxlovid in elderly patients may promote recovery from COVID-19 and reduce the viral load without adverse events.

CLINICAL TRIAL REGISTRATION

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Nirmatrelvir Resistance in SARS-CoV-2 Omicron_BA.1 and WA1 Replicons and Escape Strategies

The antiviral component of Paxlovid, nirmatrelvir (NIR), forms a covalent bond with Cys145 of SARS-CoV-2 nsp5. To explore NIR resistance we designed mutations to impair binding of NIR over substrate. Using 12 Omicron (BA.1) and WA.1 SARS-CoV-2 replicons, cell-based complementation and enzymatic assays, we showed that in both strains, E166V imparted high NIR resistance (∼55-fold), with major decrease in WA1 replicon fitness (∼20-fold), but not BA.1 (∼2-fold). WA1 replicon fitness was restored by L50F. These differences may contribute to a potentially lower barrier to resistance in Omicron than WA1. E166V is rare in untreated patients, albeit more prevalent in paxlovid-treated EPIC-HR clinical trial patients. Importantly, NIR-resistant replicons with E166V or E166V/L50F remained susceptible to a) the flexible GC376, and b) PF-00835231, which forms additional interactions. Molecular dynamics simulations show steric clashes between the rigid and bulky NIR t-butyl and β-branched V166 distancing the NIR warhead from its Cys145 target. In contrast, GC376, through "wiggling and jiggling" accommodates V166 and still covalently binds Cys145. PF-00835231 uses its strategically positioned methoxy-indole to form a β-sheet and overcome E166V. Drug design based on strategic flexibility and main chain-targeting may help develop second-generation nsp5-targeting antivirals efficient against NIR-resistant viruses.