Predicting fertility from seminal traits: Performance of several parametric and non-parametric procedures

The use of machine learning methods to predict sperm quality in Holstein bulls

The aim of this study was to develop prediction models for total sperm motility, morphological abnormalities and sperm output based on 1,551 ejaculate records of 58 Holstein bulls. The data was collected from September 2019 to November 2020 in a single artificial insemination (AI) center located in Eastern Germany. Factors considered for the prediction models include barn climate conditions, semen collector, number of false mounts, libido, semen collection frequency, breed and age (10-74 months). In this study, the prediction models Lasso, Group Lasso and Gradient Boosting were evaluated. The best model for each sperm quality parameter was chosen using cross validation. The models were estimated with five algorithms for sperm motility and sperm morphology and three algorithms for the number of total sperm per ejaculate (sperm output). For sperm motility and morphology a binary classification algorithm was applied, reaching an accuracy of over 80% for all models. For sperm output, no such classification was used and the only variable selected by all three algorithms was age. Furthermore, for sperm morphology, climate variables were frequently selected. Additionally, network diagrams from Group Lasso show the interdependencies between the major variable groups influencing sperm motility and morphology. In conclusion, the implementation of such prediction tools could help AI centers to optimize management factors and stabilize bull semen production in the future.

Adolescent HIV-related behavioural prediction using machine learning: a foundation for precision HIV prevention

BACKGROUND

Precision prevention is increasingly important in HIV prevention research to move beyond universal interventions to those tailored for high-risk individuals. The current study was designed to develop machine learning algorithms for predicting adolescent HIV risk behaviours.

METHODS

Comprehensive longitudinal data on adolescent risk behaviours, perceptions, peer and family influence, and neighbourhood risk factors were collected from 2564 grade-10 students at baseline followed for 24 months over 2008-2012. Machine learning techniques [support vector machine (SVM) and random forests] were applied to innovatively leverage longitudinal data for robust HIV risk behaviour prediction. In this study, we focused on two adolescent risk behaviours: had ever had sex and had multiple sex partners. Twenty percent of the data were withheld for model testing.

RESULTS

The SVM model with cost-sensitive learning achieved the highest sensitivity, at 79.1%, specificity of 75.4% with AUC of 0.86 in predicting multiple sex partners on the training data (10-fold cross-validation), and sensitivity of 79.7%, specificity of 76.5% with AUC of 0.86 on the testing data. The random forest model obtained the best performance in predicting had ever had sex, yielding the sensitivity of 78.5%, specificity of 73.1% with AUC of 0.84 on the training data and sensitivity of 82.7%, specificity of 75.3% with AUC of 0.87 on the testing data.

CONCLUSION

Machine learning methods can be used to build effective prediction model(s) to identify adolescents who are likely to engage in HIV risk behaviours. This study builds a foundation for targeted intervention strategies and informs precision prevention efforts in school-setting.

Finding Meanings in Low Dimensional Structures: Stochastic Neighbor Embedding Applied to the Analysis of Indri indri Vocal Repertoire

Simple Summary

The description of the vocal repertoire represents a critical step before deepening other aspects of animal behaviour. Repertoires may contain both discrete vocalizations—acoustically distinct and distinguishable from each other—or graded ones, with a less rigid acoustic structure. The gradation level is one of the causes that make repertoires challenging to be objectively quantified. Indeed, the higher the level of gradation in a system, the higher the complexity in grouping its components. A large sample of Indri indri calls was divided into ten putative categories from the acoustic similarity among them. We extracted frequency and duration parameters and then performed two different analyses that were able to group the calls accordingly to the a priori categories, indicating the presence of ten robust vocal classes. The analyses also showed a neat grouping of discrete vocalizations and a weaker classification of graded ones.

Abstract

Although there is a growing number of researches focusing on acoustic communication, the lack of shared analytic approaches leads to inconsistency among studies. Here, we introduced a computational method used to examine 3360 calls recorded from wild indris (Indri indri) from 2005–2018. We split each sound into ten portions of equal length and, from each portion we extracted spectral coefficients, considering frequency values up to 15,000 Hz. We submitted the set of acoustic features first to a t-distributed stochastic neighbor embedding algorithm, then to a hard-clustering procedure using a k-means algorithm. The t-distributed stochastic neighbor embedding (t-SNE) mapping indicated the presence of eight different groups, consistent with the acoustic structure of the a priori identification of calls, while the cluster analysis revealed that an overlay between distinct call types might exist. Our results indicated that the t-distributed stochastic neighbor embedding (t-SNE), successfully been employed in several studies, showed a good performance also in the analysis of indris’ repertoire and may open new perspectives towards the achievement of shared methodical techniques for the comparison of animal vocal repertoires.