Projection of invertebrate populations in the headwater streams of a temperate catchment under a changing climate

Pharmaceuticals and endocrine disrupting compounds modulate adverse effects of climate change on resource quality in freshwater food webs

Freshwater biodiversity, ecosystem functions and services are changing at an unprecedented rate due to the impacts of vast number of stressors overlapping in time and space. Our study aimed at characterizing individual and combined impacts of pollution with pharmaceuticals (PhACs) and endocrine disrupting compounds (EDCs) and increased water temperature (as a proxy for climate change) on primary producers and first level consumers in freshwaters. We conducted a microcosm experiment with a simplified freshwater food web containing moss (Bryophyta) and shredding caddisfly larvae of Micropterna nycterobia (Trichoptera). The experiment was conducted with four treatments; control (C), increased water temperature + 4 °C (T2), emerging contaminants' mix (EC = 15 PhACs & 5 EDCs), and multiple stressor treatment (MS = EC + T2). Moss exhibited an overall mild response to selected stressors and their combination. Higher water temperature negatively affected development of M. nycterobia through causing earlier emergence of adults and changes in their lipidome profiles. Pollution with PhACs and EDCs had higher impact on metabolism of all life stages of M. nycterobia than warming. Multiple stressor effect was recorded in M. nycterobia adults in metabolic response, lipidome profiles and as a decrease in total lipid content. Sex specific response to stressor effects was observed in adults, with impacts on metabolome generally more pronounced in females, and on lipidome in males. Thus, our study highlights the variability of both single and multiple stressor impacts on different traits, different life stages and sexes of a single insect species. Furthermore, our research suggests that the combined impacts of warming, linked to climate change, and contamination with PhACs and EDCs could have adverse consequences on the population dynamics of aquatic insects. Additionally, these findings point to a potential decrease in the quality of resources available for both aquatic and potentially terrestrial food webs.

Contrasting adaptive genetic consequences of stream insects under changing climate

Freshwater biodiversity undergoes degradation due to climate change. Researchers have inferred the effects of climate change on neutral genetic diversity, assuming the fixed spatial distributions of alleles. However, the adaptive genetic evolution of populations that may change the spatial distribution of allele frequencies along environmental gradients (i.e., evolutionary rescue) have largely been overlooked. We developed a modeling approach that projects the comparatively adaptive and neutral genetic diversities of four stream insects, using empirical neutral/ putative adaptive loci, ecological niche models (ENMs), and a distributed hydrological-thermal simulation at a temperate catchment under climate change. The hydrothermal model was used to generate hydraulic and thermal variables (e.g., annual current velocity and water temperature) at the present and the climatic change conditions, projected based on the eight general circulation models and the three representative concentration pathways scenarios for the two future periods (2031-2050, near future; 2081-2100, far future). The hydraulic and thermal variables were used for predictor variables of the ENMs and adaptive genetic modeling based on machine learning approaches. The increases in annual water temperature in the near- (+0.3-0.7 °C) and far-future (+0.4-3.2 °C) were projected. Of the studied species, with different ecologies and habitat ranges, Ephemera japonica (Ephemeroptera) was projected to lose rear-edge habitats (i.e., downstream) but retain the adaptive genetic diversity owing to evolutionary rescue. In contrast, the habitat range of the upstream-dwelling Hydropsyche albicephala (Trichoptera) was found to remarkably decline, resulting in decreases in the watershed genetic diversity. While the other two Trichoptera species expanded their habitat ranges, the genetic structures were homogenized over the watershed and experienced moderate decreases in gamma diversity. The findings emphasize the evolutionary rescue potential, depending on the extent of species-specific local adaptation.

Climatically promoted taxonomic homogenization of macroinvertebrates in unaffected streams varies along the river continuum

Biotic homogenization appears to be a global consequence of anthropogenic change. However, the underlying environmental factors contributing to homogenization are difficult to identify because their effects usually interact and confound each other. This can be the reason why there is very little evidence on the role of climate warming in homogenization. By analysing macroinvertebrate assemblages in 65 streams that were as close to natural conditions as possible, we avoided the confounding effects of common anthropogenic stressors. This approach resulted in revealing a significant effect of increased temperature (both summer and winter) on changes in macroinvertebrate compositional over the past two decades. However, homogenization was significant only at opposite ends of the river continuum (submontane brooks, low-altitude rivers). Surprisingly, species of native origin predominated overall, increasing in frequency and abundance ("winners"), while only a minority of species declined or disappeared ("losers"). We hypothesise that undisturbed conditions mitigate species declines and thus homogenization, and that the temperature increase has so far been beneficial to most native species. Although we may have only captured a transitional state due to extinction debt, this underscores the importance of maintaining ecological conditions in stream to prevent species loss due to climate change.