Increasing nitrogen export to sea: A scenario analysis for the Indus River

Analysis of future nitrogen and phosphorus loading in watershed and the risk of lake blooms under the influence of complex factors: Implications for management

For the management of eutrophic lakes, watershed nitrogen and phosphorus control is oriented to future water quality. Assessing future nutrient dynamics and the risk of lake eutrophication is necessary. However, current assessments often lack integrated consideration of socioeconomic and climatic factors, which reduces the reference value of the results. In this study, a typical large shallow lake Chaohu, which is highly influenced by human activities, was selected as the study area, and the current and future total nitrogen (TN) and total phosphorus (TP) loading in the basin were analysed using the improved MARINA model, and the risk of water bloom were assessed. The results showed that socioeconomic factors alone varied future TN and TP loading by -24% to 32% and -40% to 34%, respectively, under different development patterns. After considering the effect of increased precipitation, the changes of TN and TP loading became -10% to 163% and -29% to 108%, respectively. The effect on loading reduction under the sustainable development pattern was weakened (58% and 28% for TN and TP loading, respectively) and the increase in loading under the brutal development pattern was significantly amplified (409% and 215% for TN and TP loading, respectively). The adoption of active environmental policies remained an effective way of loading control. However, the risk of water bloom in local lake areas might persist due to factors such as urbanization. Timely and comprehensive assessments can provide managers with more information to identify key factors that contribute to the risk of water blooms and to develop diverse water quality improvement measures. The insights from our study are applicable to other watersheds around the world with similar socio-economic background and climatic conditions.

Enhanced food system efficiency is the key to China's 2060 carbon neutrality target

Bioenergy with carbon capture and storage, among other negative-emission technologies, is required for China to achieve carbon neutrality-yet it may hinder land-based Sustainable Development Goals. Using modelling and scenario analysis, we investigate how to mitigate the potential adverse impacts on the food system of ambitious bioenergy deployment in China and its trading partners. We find that producing bioenergy domestically while sticking to the food self-sufficiency ratio redlines would lower China's daily per capita calorie intake by 8% and increase domestic food prices by 23% by 2060. Removing China's food self-sufficiency ratio restrictions could halve the domestic food dilemma but risks transferring environmental burdens to other countries, whereas halving food loss and waste, shifting to healthier diets and narrowing crop yield gaps could effectively mitigate these external effects. Our results show that simultaneously achieving carbon neutrality, food security and global sustainability requires a careful combination of these measures.

Assessment of eutrophication from Xiaoqing River estuary to Laizhou Bay: Further warning of ecosystem degradation in typically polluted estuary

The coast of Laizhou Bay is plagued by a number of environmental issues, such as eutrophication, which are likely to worsen over the next few decades as a result of trends toward industrialization and urbanization. High nutrient levels in the Xiaoqing River are believed to be the main cause of Laizhou Bay becoming eutrophicated. Therefore, we conducted two cruises from the Xiaoqing River estuary to Laizhou Bay in August 2022 and December 2022, respectively, in the wet and dry periods to assess the potential impact of status of eutrophication due to human activities. The results showed that the concentration of DIN was higher than the quality standard for water (f_i > 1) in both the wet season (August 2022) and the dry season (December 2022). DIN has major environmental impacts in Laizhou Bay. The eutrophication level index and organic pollution index have obvious spatial and temporal characteristics. In terms of time, the dry season is higher than the wet season. In space, Xiaoqing estuary is higher than Laizhou Bay. In the two surveys, DIN and DIP concentrations were significantly positively correlated, indicating that N and P pollution in the region had a common source and destination, and the spatial distribution was also similar. In addition, the current environmental conditions in the region are not ideal, reaching moderate and severe eutrophication levels, which proves that the ecosystem has the risk of aggravating degradation. As the Xiaoqing River is about to resume full navigation, human-related nutrient input (especially DIN) will continue to increase, and it is expected that the eutrophication risk in this area will increase in the next few years due to the increase in nutrient load.

Denitrification in hypersaline and coastal environments

As the association of denitrification with global warming and nitrogen removal from ecosystems has gained attention in recent decades, numerous studies have examined denitrification rates and the distribution of denitrifiers across different environments. In this minireview, reported studies focused on coastal saline environments, including estuaries, mangroves, and hypersaline ecosystems, have been analysed to identify the relationship between denitrification and saline gradients. The analyses of the literature and databases stated the direct effect of salinity on the distribution patterns of denitrifiers. However, few works do not support this hypothesis thus making this topic controversial. The specific mechanisms by which salinity influences denitrifier distribution are not fully understood. Nevertheless, several physical and chemical environmental parameters, in addition to salinity, have been shown to play a role in structuring the denitrifying microbial communities. The prevalence of nirS or nirK denitrifiers in ecosystems is a subject of debate in this work. In general terms, in mesohaline environments, the predominant nitrite reductase is NirS type and, NirK is found predominantly in hypersaline environments. Moreover, the approaches used by different researchers are quite different, resulting in a huge amount of unrelated information, making it difficult to establish comparative analysis. The main techniques used to analyse the distribution of denitrifying populations along salt gradients have been also discussed.

Nitrogen in the Yangtze River Basin: Pollution Reduction through Coupling Crop and Livestock Production

Livestock production poses a threat to water quality worldwide. A better understanding of the contribution of individual livestock species to nitrogen (N) pollution in rivers is essential to improve water quality. This paper aims to quantify inputs of dissolved inorganic nitrogen (DIN) to the Yangtze River from different livestock species at multiple scales and explore ways for reducing these inputs through coupling crop and livestock production. We extended the previously developed model MARINA (Model to Assess River Input of Nutrient to seAs) with the NUFER (Nutrient flows in Food chains, Environment, and Resource use) approach for livestock. Results show that DIN inputs to the Yangtze River vary across basins, sub-basins, and 0.5° grids, as well as across livestock species. In 2012, livestock production resulted in 2000 Gg of DIN inputs to the Yangtze River. Pig production was responsible for 55-85% of manure-related DIN inputs. Rivers in the downstream sub-basin received higher manure-related DIN inputs than rivers in the other sub-basins. Around 20% of the Yangtze basin is considered as a manure-related hotspot of river pollution. Recycling manure on cropland can avoid direct discharges of manure from pig production and thus reduce river pollution. The potential for recycling manure is larger in cereal production than in other crop species. Our results can help to identify effective solutions for coupling crop and livestock production in the Yangtze basin.

A high-resolution nutrient emission inventory for hotspot identification in the Yangtze River Basin

A high-resolution nutrient emission inventory can provide reliable and accurate identification of priority control areas, which is crucial for efficient decisions on water quality restoration. However, the inventories widely used in large-scale modeling are usually based on provincial inputs, which induce the challenges of lacking localized parameters and missing localized characteristic when provincial scale inputs are converted to finer scales with the down-scale methods. Based on elaborate investigations and statistical data at the county scale with multi-scale data conversion, the China Emission Inventory of Nutrients (CEIN) was developed with a spatial resolution of a 0.1° grid and sub-basin scales. The Yangtze River Basin was used as a case study to illustrate the potential applications of CEIN. The emissions of total nitrogen (TN) and total phosphorus (TP) of Yangtze River Basin is 0.43 Mt and 0.04 Mt for point sources, 11.09 Mt and 4.64 Mt for diffuse sources in 2017. The hotspot analysis for 2606 sub-basins indicated that cropland is the key source of nutrient emissions, accounting for 58.88% and 79.15% of TN and TP, respectively. Industrial sewage and freshwater aquaculture accounted for 27.39% (TN) and 21.98% (TP) of the point sources, which is substantial due to their direct discharge into surface waters. The current results also reveal that, in contrast to CEIN, the previously used common emission factors based on GDP per capita produced considerable overestimations of 2.37 and 2.65 times the actual TN and TP emissions, respectively. Additional advantages of the CEIN have been demonstrated in identifying priority control areas more accurately with reduced bias and quantifying the effects of policies at much smaller scales. For example, the CEIN helps to distinguish hotspots, which was neglected when identifying sources at the level-III sub-basin scale, and indicates that the management of fractional areas (TN: 16.97%; TP: 13.44%) provides the highest nutrient emissions control (TN: 44.34%; TP: 48.65%) for the entire basin. The evaluation of China's toilet revolution policy demonstrates that achieving equitable access to safe sanitation has resulted in a reduction of 7240 t of TN and 833 t of TP, which is extremely critical for rural water quality and health.

Natural Processes and Anthropogenic Activity in the Indus River Sedimentary Environment in Pakistan: A Critical Review

The Indus River is Asia’s longest river, having its origin in the Tibet Mountain northwest of Pakistan. Routed from northern Gilgit and flowing to the plains, the river passes through several provinces and is connected by numerous small and large tributaries. The river was formed tectonically due to the collusion of the Indian and Eurasian plates, which is referred to as the Indus suture Plains zone (ISPZ). The geological setting of the study area is mainly composed of igneous and metamorphic rocks. The river passed through a variety of climatic zones and areas, although the predominant climate is subtropic arid and sub arid to subequatorial. Locally and globally, anthropogenic activities such as building, dams, and water canals for irrigation purposes, mining exploration, and industries and factories all affected the physical and chemical behaviors of the sediments in various rivers. The main effect of human activities is the reworking of weathered soil smectite, a chemical weathering indicator that rises in the offshore record about 5000 years ago. This material indicates increased transport of stronger chemically weathered material, which may result from agriculture-induced erosion of older soil. However, we also see evidence for the incision of large rivers into the floodplain, which is also driving the reworking of this type of material, so the signal may be a combination of the two. Sediments undergo significant changes in form and size due to clashing with one another in the high-charge river.

Modeling the Contribution of Crops to Nitrogen Pollution in the Yangtze River

Agriculture contributes considerably to nitrogen (N) inputs to the world's rivers. In this study, we aim to improve our understanding of the contribution of different crops to N inputs to rivers. To this end, we developed a new model system by linking the MARINA 2.0 (Model to Assess River Input of Nutrient to seAs) and WOFOST (WOrld FOod STudy) models. We applied this linked model system to the Yangtze as an illustrative example. The N inputs to crops in the Yangtze River basin showed large spatial variability. Our results indicate that approximately 6,000 Gg of N entered all rivers of the Yangtze basin from crop production as dissolved inorganic N (DIN) in 2012. Half of this amount is from the production of single rice, wheat, and vegetables, where synthetic fertilizers were largely applied. In general, animal manure contributes 12% to total DIN inputs to rivers. Three-quarters of manure-related DIN in rivers are from vegetable, fruit, and potato production. The contributions of crops to river pollution differ among sub-basins. For example, potato is an important source of DIN in rivers of some upstream sub-basins. Our results may help to prioritize the dominant crop sources for management to mitigate N pollution in the future.

Quantifying variations in ecosystem services in altitude-associated vegetation types in a tropical region of China

Natural vegetation is important for ecosystem services (ESs) provision, but is decreasing rapidly due to human-driven land use change, especially rapid expansion of commercial plantations. This is leading to a decrease in ESs provision, so measures are urgently needed to protect natural vegetation. Human activities, especially commercial plantations, can also lead to differences in vegetation types and associated ESs provision. This feature varies with altitude, an issue which has received insufficient attention. In this study, four ESs relevant to stakeholders (carbon storage, nitrogen export, sediment retention and water yield) were assessed. InVEST models and statistical methods (ANOVA; exploratory hierarchical clustering) were used to analyse: 1) similarities/differences in ESs provision between different vegetation types and 2) spatial differences in ESs in different altitude zones in the Xishuangbanna region of China. The results showed that vegetation types in Xishuangbanna and their ESs supply capacity differed markedly, with the overall ESs supply capacity of natural forests exceeding that of commercial plantations. Promotion of mixed organic agriculture can be a balanced measure to secure future economic development and ecological protection. This study can act as reference for vegetation protection in other areas within and beyond China.

Community dynamics and activity of nirS-harboring denitrifiers in sediments of the Indus River Estuary

Denitrification is an important pathway for reactive nitrogen removal from aquatic ecosystems. In this study, the biodiversity, abundance, and activity of cytochrome cd₁-type nitrate reductase gene (nirS)-harboring denitrifiers in the sediments of the Indus River Estuary were examined by molecular and isotope-tracing techniques. Results showed that the nirS-harboring denitrifier communities showed significant geographical variations along the estuarine salinity gradient. Real-time quantitative PCR showed that the abundance of nirS-harboring denitrifiers ranged from 5.3 × 10⁶ to 2.5 × 10⁸ copies g^-1, without significant spatiotemporal variation. The potential rates of denitrification varied from 0.01 to 6.27 μmol N kg^-1 h^-1 and correlated significantly to TOC and Fe(II) (P < 0.05). On the basis of ¹⁵N isotope-tracing experiments, the denitrification process contributed 18.4-99.4% to the total nitrogen loss in the sediments of the Indus River Estuary. This study provides novel insights into the microbial mechanism of nitrogen removal process in estuarine ecosystems.