Ecological security evaluation and early warning in the water source area of the Middle Route of South-to-North Water Diversion Project

Study on the Spatiotemporal Evolution and Driving Factors of Ecological Security in Stages Based on the DPSIRM-SBM Model: A Case Study of the Yangtze River Economic Belt

Scientific assessment of urban ecological security (ES) is an important prerequisite to realize regional sustainable development. Previous studies lack the consideration of quality and poor systematic correlation, which could not reflect the internal dynamic relationship. On the basis of considering the time lag, this study divided the research process into the natural operation stage and the management feedback stage based on the driving forces, pressures, state, impacts, responses, management (DPSIRM) framework model and DEA theory, so as to effectively overcome the above shortcomings. Finally, we analyzed the spatio-temporal characteristics and influencing factors of the ES level of 108 cities in the Yangtze River Economic Belt (YREB) during 2005-2019. The results showed that: (a) both two stages showed a slow and fluctuating upward trend in time series, and the level of urban ES in the management feedback stage was significantly higher than that in the natural operation stage; (b) with the passage of time, the spatial distribution of ES in the natural operation stage gradually developed towards the middle and downstream of the YREB, while the management feedback stage mainly evolved from the midstream to the edge area; (c) the level of urban ES presented a different degree of spatial agglomeration phenomenon, and showed an increasing trend over time; and (d) the key influencing factors gradually changed from pressure to response during 2005-2019. This research aims to provide an innovative perspective for the measurement of urban ES, and provide scientific reference for improving urban ecological sustainable development.

Integrated assessment and prediction of ecological security in typical ecologically fragile areas

In order to safeguard and restore ecological security in ecologically fragile regions, a regionally appropriate land use structure and ecological security pattern should be constructed. Previous ecological security research models for ecologically fragile areas are relatively homogenous, and it is necessary to establish a multi-modeling framework to consider integrated ecological issues. This study proposes a coupled "PLUS-ESI-Circuit Theory" framework for multi-scenario ecological security assessment of the Ningxia Hui Autonomous Region (NHAR). Firstly, the PLUS model was used to complete the simulation of four future development scenarios. Secondly, a new ecological security index (ESI) is constructed by synthesizing ecological service function, ecological health, and ecological risk. Finally, the Circuit Theory is applied to construct the ecological security pattern under multiple scenarios, and the optimization strategy of ecological security zoning is proposed. The results show that (1) from 2000 to 2030, the NHAR has about 80% of grassland and farmland. The built-up area is consistently growing. (2) Between 2000 and 2030, high ecological security areas are primarily located in Helan Mountain, Liupan Mountain, and the central part of NHAR, while the low ecological security areas are dominated by Shapotou District and Yinchuan City. (3) After 2010, the aggregation of high-security areas decreases, and the fragmentation of patches is obvious. Landscape fragmentation would increase under the economic development (ED) scenario and would be somewhat ameliorated by the ecological protection (EP) and balanced development (BD) scenarios. (4) The number of sources increases but the area decreases from 2000 to 2020. The quantity of ecological elements is on the rise. Ecological restoration and protection of this part of the country will improve its ecological security.

Sustainable governance of drinking water conservation areas based on adaptive thresholds

Drinking water quality is integral to the Sustainable Development Goals framework. At the present, China's drinking water conservation faces a number of challenges that are partially brought on by strict conservation measures that don't fully take into account human-land conflict and sustainable development. Taking the idea of adaptive governance, this study seeks to identify adaptive thresholds and adaptive solutions for compatible drinking water conservation and local development. Pressure and resistance to drinking water quality in its status, future potential, and adaptive thresholds were explored to identify sustainable governance for the Baimei Conservation Area, Fujian Province. Field research, local governance forums, and the Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT) model were utilized to explore the drinking water quality pressure and resistance to drinking water quality. In order to uncover potential future changes in pressure and resistance, suitability analyses and multi-scenario simulations were used to examine the status quo, pressure, and resistance scenarios. Adaptive thresholds were then identified through SWAT modeling of each scenario to guarantee the drinking water quality is greater than Class II in the Core Conservation Area and Class Ⅲ in 2nd-grade Conservation Area, respectively. The research finds that construction land development and farming are the key pressures on drinking water quality, and forests and wetlands are the primary resistances. The expansion of construction lands and the increased wetlands was centered on potential future scenarios because farming has no room for growth and forests are already heavily covered. The adaptive threshold of construction land expansion is identified to be 10% without new wetlands but can be 20% by adding 10% wetlands in subbasins, 5, 8, and 9. This study confirms the potential of adaptive sustainability for drinking water conservation areas. A similar analysis procedure can also be adapted to enhance adaptive governance for the sustainability of other conservation areas nationally and globally.

Interpretation of the coupling mechanism of ecological security and urbanization based on a Computation-Verification-Coupling framework: Quantitative analysis of sustainable development

In recent decades, China's rapid urbanization has produced numerous economic benefits while simultaneously creating substantial risks to ecological security. China's 14th Five-Year Plan and the United Nations Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs) have recently explicitly called for the coordinated development of ecological security and urbanization. Given this context, it is important to explore the mechanism by which ecological security and urbanization are coupled and coordinated to promote sustainable development. In this study, an index of the relationship between ecological security and urbanization was established via high-resolution data, and a "Computation-Verification-Coupling" (CVC) framework was constructed. The accuracy of the ecological security index was verified using a linear regression model, and the coordination level between ecological security and urbanization was analyzed via a coupled coordination model (CCM). The results revealed a steady increase in the ecological security index from 2010 to 2020; the proportion of the area above the medium level increased from 63.1 % to 74.1 %. The urbanization index in core counties exhibited rapid growth, with level V urbanized areas expanding from 5.5 % to 9.9 %. The ecological security verification model produced a coefficient of determination (R²) of 0.75685, indicating a satisfactory degree of predictive capability. From 2010-2020, the coupled coordination improved, with the high coordination area accounting for 48.8 % and the extreme discoordination area decreasing from 1.8 % to 1.0 %. Coordinated development exhibited a stable progression, characterized by a cyclical evolution from initial coupling to antagonistic coupling and finally to coordinated development. This framework can be used not only to investigate the relationship between ecological security and urbanization but also to provide a quantifiable measure of progress toward achieving the SDGs.