Building the U.S. COVID-19 vaccine effectiveness program: Past successes and future directions

Changing epidemiology of COVID-19: potential future impact on vaccines and vaccination strategies

INTRODUCTION

COVID-19 was an unprecedented challenge worldwide; however, disease epidemiology has evolved, and COVID-19 no longer constitutes a public health emergency of international concern. Nonetheless, COVID-19 remains a global threat and uncertainties remain, including definition of the end of the pandemic and transition to endemicity, and understanding true rates of SARS-CoV-2 infection/transmission.

AREAS COVERED

Six international experts convened (April 2023) to interpret changing COVID-19 epidemiology and public health challenges. We report the panel's recommendations and knowledge gaps in COVID-19 epidemiology, SARS-CoV-2 evolution, and future vaccination strategies, informed by peer-reviewed publications, surveillance data, health authority assessments, and clinical experience.

EXPERT OPINION

High population SARS-CoV-2 immunity indicates the likely end to the pandemic's acute phase. Continued emergence of variants/sublineages that can evade the vaccine-induced antibody response are likely, but widespread immunity reduces the risk of disease severity.Continued surveillance is required to capture transition to endemicity, seasonality, and emergence of novel variants/sublineages, to inform future vaccination strategies. COVID-19 vaccination should be integrated into routine vaccination programs throughout life.Co-circulation with other respiratory viruses should be monitored to avoid a combined peak, which could overrun healthcare systems. Effective, combined vaccines and improved education may help overcome vaccine hesitancy/booster fatigue and increase vaccination uptake.

Development of COVID-19 vaccine policy - United States, 2020-2023

COVID-19 vaccines represent a great scientific and public health achievement in the face of overwhelming pressures from a global pandemic, preventing millions of hospitalizations and deaths due to COVID-19 vaccines in the United States. Over 675 million doses of COVID-19 vaccines have been administered in the United States, and over 80% of the U.S. population has had at least 1 dose of a COVID-19 vaccine. Over the course of the COVID-19 pandemic in the United States, over one million people died from COVID-19, and over six million were hospitalized. It has been estimated that COVID-19 vaccines prevented more than 18 million additional hospitalizations and more than 3 million additional deaths due to COVID-19 in the United States. From the beginning of the COVID-19 pandemic in 2020 through June 2023, ACIP had 35 COVID-19 focused meetings and 24 votes for COVID-19 vaccine recommendations. ACIP had the critical task of rapidly and thoroughly reviewing emerging and evolving data on COVID-19 epidemiology and vaccines, as well as making comprehensive population-based recommendations for vaccine policy and considerations for implementation through a transparent and evidence-based framework. Safe and effective COVID-19 vaccines, recommended through transparent policy discussions with ACIP, remain the best tool we have to prevent serious illness, hospitalization and death from COVID-19.