Redefining pandemic preparedness: Multidisciplinary insights from the CERP modelling workshop in infectious diseases, workshop report

In July 2023, the Center of Excellence in Respiratory Pathogens organized a two-day workshop on infectious diseases modelling and the lessons learnt from the Covid-19 pandemic. This report summarizes the rich discussions that occurred during the workshop. The workshop participants discussed multisource data integration and highlighted the benefits of combining traditional surveillance with more novel data sources like mobility data, social media, and wastewater monitoring. Significant advancements were noted in the development of predictive models, with examples from various countries showcasing the use of machine learning and artificial intelligence in detecting and monitoring disease trends. The role of open collaboration between various stakeholders in modelling was stressed, advocating for the continuation of such partnerships beyond the pandemic. A major gap identified was the absence of a common international framework for data sharing, which is crucial for global pandemic preparedness. Overall, the workshop underscored the need for robust, adaptable modelling frameworks and the integration of different data sources and collaboration across sectors, as key elements in enhancing future pandemic response and preparedness.

Changing epidemiology of COVID-19: potential future impact on vaccines and vaccination strategies

INTRODUCTION

COVID-19 was an unprecedented challenge worldwide; however, disease epidemiology has evolved, and COVID-19 no longer constitutes a public health emergency of international concern. Nonetheless, COVID-19 remains a global threat and uncertainties remain, including definition of the end of the pandemic and transition to endemicity, and understanding true rates of SARS-CoV-2 infection/transmission.

AREAS COVERED

Six international experts convened (April 2023) to interpret changing COVID-19 epidemiology and public health challenges. We report the panel's recommendations and knowledge gaps in COVID-19 epidemiology, SARS-CoV-2 evolution, and future vaccination strategies, informed by peer-reviewed publications, surveillance data, health authority assessments, and clinical experience.

EXPERT OPINION

High population SARS-CoV-2 immunity indicates the likely end to the pandemic's acute phase. Continued emergence of variants/sublineages that can evade the vaccine-induced antibody response are likely, but widespread immunity reduces the risk of disease severity.Continued surveillance is required to capture transition to endemicity, seasonality, and emergence of novel variants/sublineages, to inform future vaccination strategies. COVID-19 vaccination should be integrated into routine vaccination programs throughout life.Co-circulation with other respiratory viruses should be monitored to avoid a combined peak, which could overrun healthcare systems. Effective, combined vaccines and improved education may help overcome vaccine hesitancy/booster fatigue and increase vaccination uptake.

Predictors of Severity of Influenza-Related Hospitalizations: Results From the Global Influenza Hospital Surveillance Network (GIHSN)

BACKGROUND

The Global Influenza Hospital Surveillance Network (GIHSN) has since 2012 provided patient-level data on severe influenza-like-illnesses from >100 participating clinical sites worldwide based on a core protocol and consistent case definitions.

METHODS

We used multivariable logistic regression to assess the risk of intensive care unit admission, mechanical ventilation, and in-hospital death among hospitalized patients with influenza and explored the role of patient-level covariates and country income level.

RESULTS

The data set included 73 121 patients hospitalized with respiratory illness in 22 countries, including 15 660 with laboratory-confirmed influenza. After adjusting for patient-level covariates we found a 7-fold increase in the risk of influenza-related intensive care unit admission in lower middle-income countries (LMICs), compared with high-income countries (P = .01). The risk of mechanical ventilation and in-hospital death also increased by 4-fold in LMICs, though these differences were not statistically significant. We also find that influenza mortality increased significantly with older age and number of comorbid conditions. Across all severity outcomes studied and after controlling for patient characteristics, infection with influenza A/H1N1pdm09 was more severe than with A/H3N2.

CONCLUSIONS

Our study provides new information on influenza severity in underresourced populations, particularly those in LMICs.

The genomic evolutionary dynamics and global circulation patterns of respiratory syncytial virus

Respiratory syncytial virus (RSV) is a leading cause of acute lower respiratory tract infection in young children and the second leading cause of infant death worldwide. While global circulation has been extensively studied for respiratory viruses such as seasonal influenza, and more recently also in great detail for SARS-CoV-2, a lack of global multi-annual sampling of complete RSV genomes limits our understanding of RSV molecular epidemiology. Here, we capitalise on the genomic surveillance by the INFORM-RSV study and apply phylodynamic approaches to uncover how selection and neutral epidemiological processes shape RSV diversity. Using complete viral genome sequences, we show similar patterns of site-specific diversifying selection among RSVA and RSVB and recover the imprint of non-neutral epidemic processes on their genealogies. Using a phylogeographic approach, we provide evidence for air travel governing the global patterns of RSVA and RSVB spread, which results in a considerable degree of phylogenetic mixing across countries. Our findings highlight the potential of systematic global RSV genomic surveillance for transforming our understanding of global RSV spread.

Assessing New York City's COVID-19 Vaccine Rollout Strategy: A Case for Risk-Informed Distribution

This study reviews the impact of eligibility policies in the early rollout of the COVID-19 vaccine on coverage and probable outcomes, with a focus on New York City. We conducted a retrospective ecological study assessing age  65+, area-level income, vaccination coverage, and COVID-19 mortality rates, using linked Census Bureau data and New York City Health administrative data aggregated at the level of modified zip code tabulation areas (MODZCTA). The population for this study was all individuals in 177 MODZCTA in New York City. Population data were obtained from Census Bureau and New York City Health administrative data. The total mortality rate was examined through an ordinary least squares (OLS) regression model, using area-level wealth, the proportion of the population aged 65 and above, and the vaccination rate among this age group as predictors. Low-income areas with high proportions of older people demonstrated lower coverage rates (mean vaccination rate 52.8%; maximum coverage 67.9%) than wealthier areas (mean vaccination rate 74.6%; maximum coverage 99% in the wealthiest quintile) in the first 3 months of vaccine rollout and higher mortality over the year. Despite vaccine shortages, many younger people accessed vaccines ahead of schedule, particularly in high-income areas (mean coverage rate 60% among those 45-64 years in the wealthiest quintile). A vaccine program that prioritized those at greatest risk of COVID-19-associated morbidity and mortality would have prevented more deaths than the strategy that was implemented. When rolling out a new vaccine, policymakers must account for local contexts and conditions of high-risk population groups. If New York had focused limited vaccine supply on low-income areas with high proportions of residents 65 or older, overall mortality might have been lower.

SARS-CoV-2 Viral Replication Persists in the Human Lung for Several Weeks after Symptom Onset

Rationale: In the upper respiratory tract, replicating (culturable) severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) is recoverable for ∼4-8 days after symptom onset, but there is a paucity of data about the frequency and duration of replicating virus in the lower respiratory tract (i.e., the human lung).Objectives: We undertook lung tissue sampling (needle biopsy) shortly after death in 42 mechanically ventilated decedents during the Beta and Delta waves. An independent group of 18 ambulatory patients served as a control group.Methods: Lung biopsy cores from decedents underwent viral culture, histopathological analysis, electron microscopy, transcriptomic profiling, and immunohistochemistry.Measurements and Main Results: Thirty-eight percent (16 of 42) of mechanically ventilated decedents had culturable virus in the lung for a median of 15 days (persisting for up to 4 wk) after symptom onset. Lung viral culture positivity was not associated with comorbidities or steroid use. Delta but not Beta variant lung culture positivity was associated with accelerated death and secondary bacterial infection (P < 0.05). Nasopharyngeal culture was negative in 23.1% (6 of 26) of decedents despite lung culture positivity. This hitherto undescribed biophenotype of lung-specific persisting viral replication was associated with an enhanced transcriptomic pulmonary proinflammatory response but with concurrent viral culture positivity.Conclusions: Concurrent rather than sequential active viral replication continues to drive a heightened proinflammatory response in the human lung beyond the second week of illness and was associated with variant-specific increased mortality and morbidity. These findings have potential implications for the design of interventional strategies and clinical management of patients with severe coronavirus disease (COVID-19).

Epidemiology of community-acquired pneumonia caused by S treptococcus pneumoniae in older adults: a narrative review

PURPOSE OF REVIEW

This review covers updated perspectives on different aspects of pneumococcal community-acquired pneumonia (pCAP), including the epidemiology, clinical presentation, risk factors, antibiotic treatment, and existing preventive strategies in older adults.

RECENT FINDINGS

pCAP remains the most prevalent condition among lower respiratory tract infections in the older adults according to Global Burden of Diseases 2019. Older adults can display atypical symptoms such as confusion, general clinical deterioration, new onset of and exacerbation of underlying illness that might trigger clinical suspicion of pCAP. Older adults with pCAP often experience increased disease severity and a higher risk of pulmonary complications compared with younger individuals, owing to age-related changes in immunity and a higher prevalence of comorbidities. Vaccination stands fundamental for prevention, emphasizing the need for effective immunization strategies, specifically tailored for older adults. There is a pressing need to reinforce efforts aimed at boosting pneumococcal vaccination rates.

SUMMARY

Despite a high morbidity and mortality, the burden of pCAP, in particular hospital admission and occurrence of invasive infections, among the elderly population is not sufficiently documented. This review findings emphasize the substantial burden of pCAP in this vulnerable population, driven by factors such as advancing age and underlying comorbidities. The emergence of antibiotic-resistant pneumococcal strains further complicates treatment decisions and highlights the importance of tailored approaches for managing pCAP in older adults.

Global disease burden of and risk factors for acute lower respiratory infections caused by respiratory syncytial virus in preterm infants and young children in 2019: a systematic review and meta-analysis of aggregated and individual participant data

BACKGROUND

Infants and young children born prematurely are at high risk of severe acute lower respiratory infection (ALRI) caused by respiratory syncytial virus (RSV). In this study, we aimed to assess the global disease burden of and risk factors for RSV-associated ALRI in infants and young children born before 37 weeks of gestation.

METHODS

We conducted a systematic review and meta-analysis of aggregated data from studies published between Jan 1, 1995, and Dec 31, 2021, identified from MEDLINE, Embase, and Global Health, and individual participant data shared by the Respiratory Virus Global Epidemiology Network on respiratory infectious diseases. We estimated RSV-associated ALRI incidence in community, hospital admission, in-hospital mortality, and overall mortality among children younger than 2 years born prematurely. We conducted two-stage random-effects meta-regression analyses accounting for chronological age groups, gestational age bands (early preterm, <32 weeks gestational age [wGA], and late preterm, 32 to <37 wGA), and changes over 5-year intervals from 2000 to 2019. Using individual participant data, we assessed perinatal, sociodemographic, and household factors, and underlying medical conditions for RSV-associated ALRI incidence, hospital admission, and three severity outcome groups (longer hospital stay [>4 days], use of supplemental oxygen and mechanical ventilation, or intensive care unit admission) by estimating pooled odds ratios (ORs) through a two-stage meta-analysis (multivariate logistic regression and random-effects meta-analysis). This study is registered with PROSPERO, CRD42021269742.

FINDINGS

We included 47 studies from the literature and 17 studies with individual participant-level data contributed by the participating investigators. We estimated that, in 2019, 1 650 000 (95% uncertainty range [UR] 1 350 000-1 990 000) RSV-associated ALRI episodes, 533 000 (385 000-730 000) RSV-associated hospital admissions, 3050 (1080-8620) RSV-associated in-hospital deaths, and 26 760 (11 190-46 240) RSV-attributable deaths occurred in preterm infants worldwide. Among early preterm infants, the RSV-associated ALRI incidence rate and hospitalisation rate were significantly higher (rate ratio [RR] ranging from 1·69 to 3·87 across different age groups and outcomes) than for all infants born at any gestational age. In the second year of life, early preterm infants and young children had a similar incidence rate but still a significantly higher hospitalisation rate (RR 2·26 [95% UR 1·27-3·98]) compared with all infants and young children. Although late preterm infants had RSV-associated ALRI incidence rates similar to that of all infants younger than 1 year, they had higher RSV-associated ALRI hospitalisation rate in the first 6 months (RR 1·93 [1·11-3·26]). Overall, preterm infants accounted for 25% (95% UR 16-37) of RSV-associated ALRI hospitalisations in all infants of any gestational age. RSV-associated ALRI in-hospital case fatality ratio in preterm infants was similar to all infants. The factors identified to be associated with RSV-associated ALRI incidence were mainly perinatal and sociodemographic characteristics, and factors associated with severe outcomes from infection were mainly underlying medical conditions including congenital heart disease, tracheostomy, bronchopulmonary dysplasia, chronic lung disease, or Down syndrome (with ORs ranging from 1·40 to 4·23).

INTERPRETATION

Preterm infants face a disproportionately high burden of RSV-associated disease, accounting for 25% of RSV hospitalisation burden. Early preterm infants have a substantial RSV hospitalisation burden persisting into the second year of life. Preventive products for RSV can have a substantial public health impact by preventing RSV-associated ALRI and severe outcomes from infection in preterm infants.

FUNDING

EU Innovative Medicines Initiative Respiratory Syncytial Virus Consortium in Europe.

Gut Microbiota and Other Factors Associated With Increased Regulatory T Cells in Hiv-exposed Uninfected Infants

HIV-exposed uninfected infants (HEU) have higher infectious morbidity than HIV-unexposed infants (HUU). HEU have multiple immune defects of unknown origin. We hypothesized that HEU have higher regulatory T cells (Treg) than HUU, which may dampen their immune defenses against pathogens. We compared 25 Treg subsets between HEU and HUU and sought the factors that may affect Treg frequencies. At birth, 3 Treg subsets, including CD4 + FOXP3 + and CD4 + FOXP3 + CD25+, had higher frequencies in 123 HEU than 117 HUU and 3 subsets were higher in HUU. At 28 and 62 weeks of life, 5 Treg subsets were higher in HEU, and none were higher in HUU. The frequencies of the discrepant Treg subsets correlated at birth with differential abundances of bacterial taxas in maternal gut microbiome and at subsequent visits in infant gut microbiomes. In vitro, bacterial taxa most abundant in HEU expanded Treg subsets with higher frequencies in HEU, recapitulating the in vivo observations. Other factors that correlated with increased Treg were low maternal CD4 + T cells in HEU at birth and male sex in HUU at 28 weeks. We conclude that maternal and infant gut dysbiosis are central to the Treg increase in HEU and may be targeted by mitigating interventions.

Bacterial nasopharyngeal colonisation in children in South Africa before and during the COVID-19 pandemic: an observational study

BACKGROUND

Deployment of non-pharmaceutical interventions such as face masking and physical distancing during the COVID-19 pandemic could have altered the transmission dynamics and carriage of respiratory organisms. We evaluated colonisation with Streptococcus pneumoniae and other upper respiratory tract bacterial colonisers before and during the COVID-19 pandemic.

METHODS

We did two cross-sectional surveys in Soweto, South Africa from July 3 to Dec 13, 2018 (pre-COVID-19 period) and from Aug 4, 2021, to March 31, 2022 (COVID-19 period) in healthy children (aged ≤60 months) who had recorded HIV status and had not received antibiotics in the 21 days before enrolment. At enrolment, we collected nasopharyngeal swab samples from child participants. Following nucleic acid extraction, nanofluidic quantitative PCR was used to screen all samples for 92 S pneumoniae serotypes and 14 other bacteria. The primary objective was to compare the prevalence and density of pneumococcal nasopharyngeal colonisation, overall and stratified by 13-valent pneumococcal conjugate vaccine (PCV13) serotypes and non-vaccine serotypes. Secondary study objectives included a comparison of serotype-specific pneumococcal colonisation and density, as well as colonisation by the 14 other bacteria in the COVID-19 versus pre-COVID-19 period. We used an adjusted multiple logistic and linear regression model to compare the colonisation prevalence and density between study periods.

FINDINGS

We analysed nasopharyngeal swabs from 1107 children (n=571 in the pre-COVID-19 period; n=536 in the COVID-19 period). We observed no change in overall pneumococcal colonisation between periods (274 [51%] of 536 in the COVID-19 period vs 282 [49%] of 571 in the pre-COVID-19 period; adjusted odds ratio [aOR] 1·03 [95% CI 0·95-1·12]). The prevalence of PCV13 serotypes was lower in the COVID-19 than in the pre-COVID-19 period (72 [13%] vs 106 [19%]; 0·87 [0·78-0·97]), whereas the prevalence of non-typeable S pneumoniae was higher (34 [6%] vs 63 [12%]; 1·30 [1·12-1·50]). The mean log10 density for overall pneumococcal colonisation was lower in the COVID-19 period than in the pre-COVID-19 period (3·96 [95% CI 3·85-4·07] vs 4·72 [4·63-4·80] log10 genome equivalents per mL; p<0·0001). A lower density of non-vaccine serotypes (3·63 [3·51-3·74] vs 4·08 [3·95-4·22] log10 genome equivalents per mL; p<0·0001) and non-typeable S pneumoniae (3·11 [2·94-3·29] vs 4·41 [4·06-4·75] log10 genome equivalents per mL; p<0·00001) was also observed in the COVID-19 period. There was no difference in the density of PCV13 serotypes between the periods. The prevalence of colonisation during the COVID-19 versus pre-COVID-19 period was lower for non-typeable Haemophilus influenzae (280 [49%] vs 165 [31%]; aOR 0·77 [95% CI 0·71-0·84]), Moraxella catarrhalis (328 [57%] vs 242 [45%]; 0·85 [0·79-0·92]), and Neisseria lactamica (51 [9%] vs 13 [2%]; 0·64 [0·52-0·78]), but higher for Acinetobacter baumannii (34 [6%] vs 102 [19%]; 1·55 [1·35-1·77]) and Staphylococcus aureus (29 [5%] vs 52 [10%]; 1·28 [1·10-1·50]).

INTERPRETATION

There were variable effects on the colonisation prevalence and density of bacterial organisms during the COVID-19 compared with the pre-COVID-19 period. The lower prevalence of PCV13 serotype together with other respiratory organisms including non-typeable H influenzae and M catarrhalis could have in part contributed to a decrease in all-cause lower respiratory tract infections observed in South Africa during the initial stage of the COVID-19 pandemic. The pathophysiological mechanism for the increase in A baumannii and S aureus colonisation warrants further investigation, as does the clinical relevance of these findings.

FUNDING

The Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation.

Nanofluidic qPCR unable to detect and serotype Streptococcus pneumoniae in urine samples of hospitalized South African patients with community-acquired pneumonia

Pneumonia is a major cause of death among adults living with HIV in South Africa, but the etiology of many cases remains unknown. This study evaluated the utility of a nanofluidic qPCR assay to detect and serotype Streptococcus pneumoniae in urine samples from patients hospitalized with community-acquired pneumonia (CAP). The nanofluidic qPCR assay was optimized to target 13 pneumococcal serotypes and 4 reference genes. Archived urine samples collected from patients > 15 years of age hospitalized with pneumonia between April 2018 and August 2019 were retrospectively tested using the nanofluidic qPCR assay, BinaxNOW urine antigen test, and standard LytA qPCR. Blood culture was undertaken on a subset of the samples at the discretion of the attending physician. Cohens' Kappa statistics were used to determine the concordance between the methods. Of the 828 adults hospitalized for CAP, urine samples were available in 53% (n = 439). Of those, a random subset of 96 (22%) samples underwent testing. Of the participants included in the final analysis, the mean age was 45.8 years (SD 16.2), 49% (n = 47) were female, 98% (n = 94) were black, and 66% (n = 63) were living with HIV infection. The nanofluidic qPCR method was able to detect PCV13 vaccine strains spiked into urine samples; however, the method failed to detect any pneumococcus in clinical samples. In comparison, 19% of the pneumonia cases were attributed to S. pneumoniae using urine antigen testing. Nanofluidic qPCR is unable to detect and serotype Streptococcus pneumoniae in urine samples of South Africans hospitalized with CAP.

Genomic characterization of Bordetella pertussis in South Africa, 2015-2019

Pertussis remains a public health concern in South Africa, with an increase in reported cases and outbreaks in recent years. Whole genome sequencing was performed on 32 Bordetella pertussis isolates sourced from three different surveillance programmes in South Africa between 2015 and 2019. Genome sequences were characterized using multilocus sequence typing, vaccine antigen genes (ptxP, ptxA, ptxB, prn and fimH) and overall genome structure. All isolates were sequence type 2 and harboured the pertussis toxin promoter allele ptxP3. The dominant genotype was ptxP3-ptxA1-ptxB2-prn2-fimH2 (31/32, 96.9 %), with no pertactin-deficient or other mutations in vaccine antigen genes identified. Amongst 21 isolates yielding closed genome assemblies, eight distinct genome structures were detected, with 61.9 % (13/21) of the isolates exhibiting three predominant structures. Increases in case numbers are probably not due to evolutionary changes in the genome but possibly due to other factors such as the cyclical nature of B. pertussis disease, waning immunity due to the use of acellular vaccines and/or population immunity gaps.

Immunogenicity of tetanus, diphtheria and acellular pertussis vaccination among pregnant women living with and without HIV

OBJECTIVE

Vaccination during pregnancy with tetanus-diphtheria-acellular pertussis (Tdap) vaccine is recommended to protect the young infants against pertussis. There is a paucity of data on immune responses to Tdap in pregnant women with HIV (PWWH), and its impact on the protection of their infants has not been described.

METHODS

In an open label phase IV clinical trial in South Africa, we evaluated the immunogenicity and safety of Tdap in PWWH compared with HIV-uninfected women. Antigen-specific immunoglobulin G (IgG) to pertussis toxoid, filamentous haemagglutinin, pertactin, fimbriae, diphtheria and tetanus were measured by electrochemiluminescence-based multiplex assay.

RESULTS

Overall, 91 PWWH and 136 HIV-uninfected pregnant women were enrolled. All PWWH were on antiretroviral treatment and 94.5% had HIV viral loads <40 copies per millilitre. Antibody levels prevaccination were lower among PWWH compared with HIV-uninfected women for all antigens. At 1 month postvaccination PWWH compared with HIV-uninfected women had lower fold-increase and antibody concentrations for all epitopes. Also, a lower proportion of PWWH achieved ≥4-fold increase from pre to postvaccination for pertussis toxoid and pertactin, or diphtheria IgG levels ≥0.1 IU/ml and ≥1 IU/ml postvaccination. Adverse events postvaccination were similar in PWWH and HIV-uninfected.

CONCLUSION

Tdap vaccination was safe and immunogenic. PWHW had, however, attenuated humoral immune responses, which could affect the effectiveness of protecting their infants against pertussis compared with those born to women without HIV.ClinicalTrials.gov identifier: NCT05264662.

Proteomic Profiling of Urine From Hospitalized Patients With Severe Pneumonia due to SARS-CoV-2 vs Other Causes: A Preliminary Report

The pathogenesis of coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) pneumonia remains poorly understood. The urine proteome of hospitalized patients with severe COVID-19 pneumonia, compared with severe non-COVID-19 pneumonia controls, was distinct and associated with lower abundance of several host proteins. Protein-specific machine learning analysis outlined biomarker combinations able to differentiate COVID-19 pneumonia from non-COVID-19 pneumonia controls.

Streptococcus pneumoniae and other bacterial nasopharyngeal colonization seven years post-introduction of 13-valent pneumococcal conjugate vaccine in South African children

OBJECTIVES

Pneumococcal conjugate vaccines (PCVs) reduce pneumococcal-associated disease by reducing vaccine-serotype (VT) acquisition in vaccinated children, thereby interrupting VT transmission. The 7-valent-PCV was introduced in the South African immunization program in 2009 (13-valent-PCV since 2011) using a 2+1 schedule (at 6, 14, and 40 weeks of age). We aimed to evaluate temporal changes in VT and non-vaccine-serotype (NVT) colonization after 9 years of childhood PCV immunization in South Africa.

METHODS

Nasopharyngeal swabs were collected from healthy children <60-month-old (n = 571) in 2018 (period-2) and compared with samples (n = 1135) collected during early PCV7-introduction (period-1, 2010-11) in an urban low-income setting (Soweto). Pneumococci were tested for using a multiplex quantitative-polymerase chain reaction serotyping reaction-set.

RESULTS

Overall pneumococcal colonization in period-2 (49.4%; 282/571) was 27.5% lower than period-1 (68.1%; 773/1135; adjusted odds ratio [aOR]: 0.66; 95% confidence interval [CI]: 0.54-0.88). Colonization by VT was reduced by 54.5% in period-2 (18.6%; 106/571) compared with period-1 (40.9%; 465/1135; aOR: 0.41; 95% CI: 0.3-0.56). Nevertheless, serotype 19F carriage prevalence was higher (8.1%; 46/571) in period-2 compared with period-1 (6.6%; 75/1135; aOR: 2.0; 95% CI: 1.09-3.56). NVT colonization prevalence was similar in period-2 and period-1 (37.8%; 216/571 and 42.4%; 481/1135).

CONCLUSION

There remains a high residual prevalence of VT, particularly 19F, colonization nine years post-introduction of PCV in the South African childhood immunization program.

All-cause and pathogen-specific lower respiratory tract infection hospital admissions in children younger than 5 years during the COVID-19 pandemic (2020-22) compared with the pre-pandemic period (2015-19) in South Africa: an observational study

BACKGROUND

Non-pharmaceutical interventions affected the circulation of and illness due to endemic respiratory pathogens during the COVID-19 pandemic. We investigated the incidence of admissions to hospital for overall and specific pathogen-associated lower respiratory tract infection (LRTI) during the COVID-19 pandemic compared with incidence in the pre-pandemic period.

METHODS

In this observational study, we analysed surveillance data for children younger than 5 years from two public hospitals in Soweto, South Africa, for all-cause LRTI, respiratory syncytial virus (RSV), influenza, human metapneumovirus, and Bordetella pertussis from Jan 1, 2015 to Dec 31, 2022. Data were obtained from an electronic database that includes information for all admissions to the general paediatric wards at the two hospitals, automatically identified by a computer program. We excluded children admitted to hospital with incidental SARS-CoV-2 infection or COVID-19 without LRTI diagnosis. Incidence during COVID-19 pandemic years (2020, 2021, and 2022) were compared with pre-pandemic rates (2015-19).

FINDINGS

Overall, there were 42 068 all-cause hospital admissions, including 18 303 all-cause LRTI hospital admissions, from Jan 1, 2015, to Dec 31, 2022, 17 822 (42·4%) of whom were female, 23 893 (57·0%) were male, and 353 (0·8%) had missing data. All-cause LRTI incidence risk ratio (IRR) was 30% lower in 2020 (IRR 0·70, 95% CI 0·67-0·74) and 13% lower in 2021 (0·87, 0·83-0·91), but 16% higher in 2022 (1·16, 1·11-1·21) compared with the pre-pandemic period. Furthermore, compared with the pre-pandemic period, incidence of RSV-associated LRTI (0·52, 0·45-0·58), influenza-associated LRTI (0·05, 0·02-0·11), and pulmonary tuberculosis (0·52, 0·41-0·65) were lower in 2020, with similar trends observed for human-metapneumovirus-associated LRTI, pertussis, and invasive pneumococcal disease (IPD). Compared with the pre-pandemic period, by 2022, RSV-associated LRTI incidence was similar (1·04, 0·95-1·14) and influenza-associated LRTI showed a non-significant increase (1·14, 0·92-1·39), whereas incidence remained lower for tuberculosis (0·79, 0·65-0·94) and IPD (0·51, 0·24-0·99). In 2022, the incidence of COVID-19-associated LRTI hospital admission (65 per 100 000 children younger than 5 years) was lower than pre-pandemic RSV-associated LRTI (0·23, 0·19-0·27) but higher than pre-pandemic influenza-associated LRTI (1·19, 0·97-1·45), although the difference was not significant. All-cause LRTI death in 2022 (57 per 100 000 children younger than 5 years) was 28% higher than in the pre-pandemic period (1·28, 1·03-1·58).

INTERPRETATION

The higher incidence of all-cause LRTI admissions to hospital in 2022 compared with the pre-pandemic period is partly due to ongoing COVID-19 admission to hospital, and could worsen if other endemic respiratory pathogens revert to pre-pandemic incidence. Interventions, including the introduction of vaccines for people who are pregnant that aim to prevent RSV and possibly COVID-19 in young children, are warranted.

FUNDING

The Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation.

Patient influenza vaccination reduces the risk of hospital-acquired influenza: An incident test negative-case control study in Lyon university hospital, France (2004-2020)

BACKGROUND

Literature is limited on the impact of patient vaccination on the risk of hospital-acquired influenza (HAI). This test negative case-control study nested in a surveillance program aimed at evaluating the effectiveness of influenza vaccination in reducing the risk of HAI in hospitalized patients during 15 influenza seasons (2004-05 to 2019-20).

METHODS

HAI cases were those who developed influenza like illness (ILI) symptoms at least 72 h after hospitalization and had a positive reverse transcriptase-polymerase chain reaction (RT-PCR). Controls were those with ILI symptoms and a negative RT-PCR test. A nasal swab as well as socio-demographic, clinical data and information on influenza vaccination were collected.

RESULTS

Of the 296 patients included, 67 were confirmed HAI cases. Influenza vaccine coverage was significantly higher among controls compared to HAI cases (p = 0.002). The risk of HAI was reduced by almost 60 % in vaccinated patients.

CONCLUSIONS

A better control of HAI can be achieved by vaccinating hospitalized patients.

Nirsevimab binding-site conservation in respiratory syncytial virus fusion glycoprotein worldwide between 1956 and 2021: an analysis of observational study sequencing data

BACKGROUND

Nirsevimab is an extended half-life monoclonal antibody to the respiratory syncytial virus (RSV) fusion protein that has been developed to protect infants for an entire RSV season. Previous studies have shown that the nirsevimab binding site is highly conserved. However, investigations of the geotemporal evolution of potential escape variants in recent (ie, 2015-2021) RSV seasons have been minimal. Here, we examine prospective RSV surveillance data to assess the geotemporal prevalence of RSV A and B, and functionally characterise the effect of the nirsevimab binding-site substitutions identified between 2015 and 2021.

METHODS

We assessed the geotemporal prevalence of RSV A and B and nirsevimab binding-site conservation between 2015 and 2021 from three prospective RSV molecular surveillance studies (the US-based OUTSMART-RSV, the global INFORM-RSV, and a pilot study in South Africa). Nirsevimab binding-site substitutions were assessed in an RSV microneutralisation susceptibility assay. We contextualised our findings by assessing fusion-protein sequence diversity from 1956 to 2021 relative to other respiratory-virus envelope glycoproteins using RSV fusion protein sequences published in NCBI GenBank.

FINDINGS

We identified 5675 RSV A and RSV B fusion protein sequences (2875 RSV A and 2800 RSV B) from the three surveillance studies (2015-2021). Nearly all (25 [100%] of 25 positions of RSV A fusion proteins and 22 [88%] of 25 positions of RSV B fusion proteins) amino acids within the nirsevimab binding site remained highly conserved between 2015 and 2021. A highly prevalent (ie, >40·0% of all sequences) nirsevimab binding-site Ile206Met:Gln209Arg RSV B polymorphism arose between 2016 and 2021. Nirsevimab neutralised a diverse set of recombinant RSV viruses, including new variants containing binding-site substitutions. RSV B variants with reduced susceptibility to nirsevimab neutralisation were detected at low frequencies (ie, prevalence <1·0%) between 2015 and 2021. We used 3626 RSV fusion-protein sequences published in NCBI GenBank between 1956 and 2021 (2024 RSV and 1602 RSV B) to show that the RSV fusion protein had lower genetic diversity than influenza haemagglutinin and SARS-CoV-2 spike proteins.

INTERPRETATION

The nirsevimab binding site was highly conserved between 1956 and 2021. Nirsevimab escape variants were rare and have not increased over time.

FUNDING

AstraZeneca and Sanofi.

Age Differences in Comorbidities, Presenting Symptoms, and Outcomes of Influenza Illness Requiring Hospitalization: A Worldwide Perspective From the Global Influenza Hospital Surveillance Network

Background

The Global Influenza Hospital Surveillance Network (GIHSN) was established in 2012 to conduct coordinated worldwide influenza surveillance. In this study, we describe underlying comorbidities, symptoms, and outcomes in patients hospitalized with influenza.

Methods

Between November 2018 and October 2019, GIHSN included 19 sites in 18 countries using a standardized surveillance protocol. Influenza infection was laboratory-confirmed with reverse-transcription polymerase chain reaction. A multivariate logistic regression model was utilized to analyze the extent to which various risk factors predict severe outcomes.

Results

Of 16 022 enrolled patients, 21.9% had laboratory-confirmed influenza; 49.2% of influenza cases were A/H1N1pdm09. Fever and cough were the most common symptoms, although they decreased with age (P < .001). Shortness of breath was uncommon among those <50 years but increased with age (P < .001). Middle and older age and history of underlying diabetes or chronic obstructive pulmonary disease were associated with increased odds of death and intensive care unit (ICU) admission, and male sex and influenza vaccination were associated with lower odds. The ICU admissions and mortality occurred across the age spectrum.

Conclusions

Both virus and host factors contributed to influenza burden. We identified age differences in comorbidities, presenting symptoms, and adverse clinical outcomes among those hospitalized with influenza and benefit from influenza vaccination in protecting against adverse clinical outcomes. The GIHSN provides an ongoing platform for global understanding of hospitalized influenza illness.

Effects of pneumococcal conjugate vaccines on reducing the risk of respiratory disease associated with coronavirus infection

Pneumococcal conjugate vaccines (PCVs) provide protection against vaccine-type pneumococcal disease in both children and adults. Growing evidence suggests that PCVs also reduce pneumonia and lower respiratory tract infections (LRTIs) more broadly, including protecting against viral-associated respiratory diseases. In this short narrative review, we highlight clinical studies investigating whether PCVs might have a role in reducing coronavirus disease, both those caused by endemic human coronaviruses (HCoVs) and severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus-2 (SARS-CoV-2). These studies include two randomized controlled trials assessing HCoV-associated pneumonia, one each in children and older adults, and two observational studies of PCV13 effectiveness against HCoV-associated LRTI and COVID-19 in adults. We discuss possible mechanisms for PCV protection including preventing viral pneumococcal co-infections and the possibility that pneumococci in the upper respiratory tract might modify the host immune response to SARS-CoV-2. Lastly, we identify knowledge gaps and further questions on the potential role of PCVs during the COVID-19 pandemic.

In-hospital mortality risk stratification in children aged under 5 years with pneumonia with or without pulse oximetry: A secondary analysis of the Pneumonia REsearch Partnership to Assess WHO REcommendations (PREPARE) dataset

OBJECTIVES

We determined the pulse oximetry benefit in pediatric pneumonia mortality risk stratification and chest-indrawing pneumonia in-hospital mortality risk factors.

METHODS

We report the characteristics and in-hospital pneumonia-related mortality of children aged 2-59 months who were included in the Pneumonia Research Partnership to Assess WHO Recommendations dataset. We developed multivariable logistic regression models of chest-indrawing pneumonia to identify mortality risk factors.

RESULTS

Among 285,839 children, 164,244 (57.5%) from hospital-based studies were included. Pneumonia case fatality risk (CFR) without pulse oximetry measurement was higher than with measurement (5.8%, 95% confidence interval [CI] 5.6-5.9% vs 2.1%, 95% CI 1.9-2.4%). One in five children with chest-indrawing pneumonia was hypoxemic (19.7%, 95% CI 19.0-20.4%), and the hypoxemic CFR was 10.3% (95% CI 9.1-11.5%). Other mortality risk factors were younger age (either 2-5 months [adjusted odds ratio (aOR) 9.94, 95% CI 6.67-14.84] or 6-11 months [aOR 2.67, 95% CI 1.71-4.16]), moderate malnutrition (aOR 2.41, 95% CI 1.87-3.09), and female sex (aOR 1.82, 95% CI 1.43-2.32).

CONCLUSION

Children with a pulse oximetry measurement had a lower CFR. Many children hospitalized with chest-indrawing pneumonia were hypoxemic and one in 10 died. Young age and moderate malnutrition were risk factors for in-hospital chest-indrawing pneumonia-related mortality. Pulse oximetry should be integrated in pneumonia hospital care for children under 5 years.

Optimization of a high-throughput nanofluidic real-time PCR to detect and quantify of 15 bacterial species and 92 Streptococcus pneumoniae serotypes

Sensitive tools for detecting concurrent colonizing pneumococcal serotypes are needed for detailed evaluation of the direct and indirect impact of routine pneumococcal conjugate vaccine (PCV) immunization. A high-throughput quantitative nanofluidic real-time PCR (Standard BioTools 'Fluidigm') reaction-set was developed to detect and quantify 92 pneumococcal serotypes in archived clinical samples. Nasopharyngeal swabs collected in 2009-2011 from South African children ≤ 5 years-old, previously serotyped with standard culture-based methods were used for comparison. The reaction-set within the 'Fluidigm' effectively amplified all targets with high efficiency (90-110%), reproducibility (R² ≥ 0.98), and at low limit-of-detection (< 10² CFU/ml). A blind analysis of 1 973 nasopharyngeal swab samples showed diagnostic sensitivity > 80% and specificity > 95% compared with the referent standard, culture based Quellung method. The qPCR method was able to serotype pneumococcal types with good discrimination compared with Quellung (ROC-AUC: > 0.73). The high-throughput nanofluidic real-time PCR method simultaneously detects 57 individual serotypes, and 35 serotypes within 16 serogroups in 96 samples (including controls), within a single qPCR run. This method can be used to evaluate the impact of current PCV formulations on vaccine-serotype and non-vaccine-serotype colonization, including detection of multiple concurrently colonizing serotypes. Our qPCR method can allow for monitoring of serotype-specific bacterial load, as well as emergence or ongoing transmission of minor or co-colonizing serotypes that may have invasive disease potential.

Human Metapneumovirus-Associated Hospitalization in HIV-1 Exposed Uninfected and HIV-1 Uninfected Children Less Than 5 Years in South Africa

Using hospital surveillance data, we estimated Human metapneumovirus (hMPV) hospitalization incidence by age and HIV-exposure status. hMPV-associated hospitalization incidence was highest in <1-year children. Incidence rate ratios of HIV-exposed over unexposed children were 1.5 (95%CI 0.9-2.4) for <6-month children, 1.4 (95%CI 0.7-2.4) for 6- to 11-month children and 0.9 (95%CI 0.4-1.9) for 12- to 59-month children.

Clinical risk factors of adverse outcomes among women with COVID-19 in the pregnancy and postpartum period: a sequential, prospective meta-analysis

OBJECTIVE

This sequential, prospective meta-analysis sought to identify risk factors among pregnant and postpartum women with COVID-19 for adverse outcomes related to disease severity, maternal morbidities, neonatal mortality and morbidity, and adverse birth outcomes.

DATA SOURCES

We prospectively invited study investigators to join the sequential, prospective meta-analysis via professional research networks beginning in March 2020.

STUDY ELIGIBILITY CRITERIA

Eligible studies included those recruiting at least 25 consecutive cases of COVID-19 in pregnancy within a defined catchment area.

METHODS

We included individual patient data from 21 participating studies. Data quality was assessed, and harmonized variables for risk factors and outcomes were constructed. Duplicate cases were removed. Pooled estimates for the absolute and relative risk of adverse outcomes comparing those with and without each risk factor were generated using a 2-stage meta-analysis.

RESULTS

We collected data from 33 countries and territories, including 21,977 cases of SARS-CoV-2 infection in pregnancy or postpartum. We found that women with comorbidities (preexisting diabetes mellitus, hypertension, cardiovascular disease) vs those without were at higher risk for COVID-19 severity and adverse pregnancy outcomes (fetal death, preterm birth, low birthweight). Participants with COVID-19 and HIV were 1.74 times (95% confidence interval, 1.12-2.71) more likely to be admitted to the intensive care unit. Pregnant women who were underweight before pregnancy were at higher risk of intensive care unit admission (relative risk, 5.53; 95% confidence interval, 2.27-13.44), ventilation (relative risk, 9.36; 95% confidence interval, 3.87-22.63), and pregnancy-related death (relative risk, 14.10; 95% confidence interval, 2.83-70.36). Prepregnancy obesity was also a risk factor for severe COVID-19 outcomes including intensive care unit admission (relative risk, 1.81; 95% confidence interval, 1.26-2.60), ventilation (relative risk, 2.05; 95% confidence interval, 1.20-3.51), any critical care (relative risk, 1.89; 95% confidence interval, 1.28-2.77), and pneumonia (relative risk, 1.66; 95% confidence interval, 1.18-2.33). Anemic pregnant women with COVID-19 also had increased risk of intensive care unit admission (relative risk, 1.63; 95% confidence interval, 1.25-2.11) and death (relative risk, 2.36; 95% confidence interval, 1.15-4.81).

CONCLUSION

We found that pregnant women with comorbidities including diabetes mellitus, hypertension, and cardiovascular disease were at increased risk for severe COVID-19-related outcomes, maternal morbidities, and adverse birth outcomes. We also identified several less commonly known risk factors, including HIV infection, prepregnancy underweight, and anemia. Although pregnant women are already considered a high-risk population, special priority for prevention and treatment should be given to pregnant women with these additional risk factors.

Adverse maternal, fetal, and newborn outcomes among pregnant women with SARS-CoV-2 infection: an individual participant data meta-analysis

INTRODUCTION

Despite a growing body of research on the risks of SARS-CoV-2 infection during pregnancy, there is continued controversy given heterogeneity in the quality and design of published studies.

METHODS

We screened ongoing studies in our sequential, prospective meta-analysis. We pooled individual participant data to estimate the absolute and relative risk (RR) of adverse outcomes among pregnant women with SARS-CoV-2 infection, compared with confirmed negative pregnancies. We evaluated the risk of bias using a modified Newcastle-Ottawa Scale.

RESULTS

We screened 137 studies and included 12 studies in 12 countries involving 13 136 pregnant women.Pregnant women with SARS-CoV-2 infection-as compared with uninfected pregnant women-were at significantly increased risk of maternal mortality (10 studies; n=1490; RR 7.68, 95% CI 1.70 to 34.61); admission to intensive care unit (8 studies; n=6660; RR 3.81, 95% CI 2.03 to 7.17); receiving mechanical ventilation (7 studies; n=4887; RR 15.23, 95% CI 4.32 to 53.71); receiving any critical care (7 studies; n=4735; RR 5.48, 95% CI 2.57 to 11.72); and being diagnosed with pneumonia (6 studies; n=4573; RR 23.46, 95% CI 3.03 to 181.39) and thromboembolic disease (8 studies; n=5146; RR 5.50, 95% CI 1.12 to 27.12).Neonates born to women with SARS-CoV-2 infection were more likely to be admitted to a neonatal care unit after birth (7 studies; n=7637; RR 1.86, 95% CI 1.12 to 3.08); be born preterm (7 studies; n=6233; RR 1.71, 95% CI 1.28 to 2.29) or moderately preterm (7 studies; n=6071; RR 2.92, 95% CI 1.88 to 4.54); and to be born low birth weight (12 studies; n=11 930; RR 1.19, 95% CI 1.02 to 1.40). Infection was not linked to stillbirth. Studies were generally at low or moderate risk of bias.

CONCLUSIONS

This analysis indicates that SARS-CoV-2 infection at any time during pregnancy increases the risk of maternal death, severe maternal morbidities and neonatal morbidity, but not stillbirth or intrauterine growth restriction. As more data become available, we will update these findings per the published protocol.

Respiratory syncytial virus prevention within reach: the vaccine and monoclonal antibody landscape

Respiratory syncytial virus is the second most common cause of infant mortality and a major cause of morbidity and mortality in older adults (aged >60 years). Efforts to develop a respiratory syncytial virus vaccine or immunoprophylaxis remain highly active. 33 respiratory syncytial virus prevention candidates are in clinical development using six different approaches: recombinant vector, subunit, particle-based, live attenuated, chimeric, and nucleic acid vaccines; and monoclonal antibodies. Nine candidates are in phase 3 clinical trials. Understanding the epitopes targeted by highly neutralising antibodies has resulted in a shift from empirical to rational and structure-based vaccine and monoclonal antibody design. An extended half-life monoclonal antibody for all infants is likely to be within 1 year of regulatory approval (from August, 2022) for high-income countries. Live-attenuated vaccines are in development for older infants (aged >6 months). Subunit vaccines are in late-stage trials for pregnant women to protect infants, whereas vector, subunit, and nucleic acid approaches are being developed for older adults. Urgent next steps include ensuring access and affordability of a respiratory syncytial virus vaccine globally. This review gives an overview of respiratory syncytial virus vaccines and monoclonal antibodies in clinical development highlighting different target populations, antigens, and trial results.

Assembling a global database of child pneumonia studies to inform WHO pneumonia management algorithm: Methodology and applications

Background

The existing World Health Organization (WHO) pneumonia case management guidelines rely on clinical symptoms and signs for identifying, classifying, and treating pneumonia in children up to 5 years old. We aimed to collate an individual patient-level data set from large, high-quality pre-existing studies on pneumonia in children to identify a set of signs and symptoms with greater validity in the diagnosis, prognosis, and possible treatment of childhood pneumonia for the improvement of current pneumonia case management guidelines.

Methods

Using data from a published systematic review and expert knowledge, we identified studies meeting our eligibility criteria and invited investigators to share individual-level patient data. We collected data on demographic information, general medical history, and current illness episode, including history, clinical presentation, chest radiograph findings when available, treatment, and outcome. Data were gathered separately from hospital-based and community-based cases. We performed a narrative synthesis to describe the final data set.

Results

Forty-one separate data sets were included in the Pneumonia Research Partnership to Assess WHO Recommendations (PREPARE) database, 26 of which were hospital-based and 15 were community-based. The PREPARE database includes 285 839 children with pneumonia (244 323 in the hospital and 41 516 in the community), with detailed descriptions of clinical presentation, clinical progression, and outcome. Of 9185 pneumonia-related deaths, 6836 (74%) occurred in children <1 year of age and 1317 (14%) in children aged 1-2 years. Of the 285 839 episodes, 280 998 occurred in children 0-59 months old, of which 129 584 (46%) were 2-11 months of age and 152 730 (54%) were males.

Conclusions

This data set could identify an improved specific, sensitive set of criteria for diagnosing clinical pneumonia and help identify sick children in need of referral to a higher level of care or a change of therapy. Field studies could be designed based on insights from PREPARE analyses to validate a potential revised pneumonia algorithm. The PREPARE methodology can also act as a model for disease database assembly.

Active Intrapartum SARS-CoV-2 Infection and Pregnancy Outcomes

OBJECTIVE

Severe acute respiratory syndrome-coronavirus-2 (SARS-CoV-2) infection during pregnancy has been associated with poor pregnancy outcomes. There is, however, not much information on the impact of the timing of SARS-CoV-2 infection on pregnancy outcomes, and studies from low-middle income settings are also scarce.

STUDY DESIGN

We conducted a cross-sectional study from April to December 2020, in South Africa, to assess the association of SARS-CoV-2 infection on a nasal swab at the time of labor with fetal death, preterm birth, low birth weight, or pregnancy-induced complications. When possible, maternal blood, cord blood, and placenta were collected. SARS-CoV-2 infection was investigated by a nucleic acid amplification test (NAAT).

RESULTS

Overall, 3,117 women were tested for SARS-CoV-2 on a nasal swab, including 1,562 (50%) healthy women with uncomplicated term delivery. A positive NAAT was detected among 132 (4%) women. Adverse birth outcomes or pregnancy-related complications were not associated with SARS-CoV-2 infection at the time of labor. Among SARS-CoV-2-infected women, an NAAT-positive result was also obtained from 6 out of 98 (6%) maternal blood samples, 8 out of 93 (9%) cord-blood samples, 14 out of 54 (26%) placentas, and 3 out of 22 (14%) nasopharyngeal swabs from newborns collected within 72 hours of birth. Histological assessment of placental tissue revealed that women with SARS-CoV-2 nasal infection had a higher odds (3.82, 95% confidence interval: 1.20, 12.19) of chronic chorioamnionitis compared with those without SARS-CoV-2 infection.

CONCLUSION

Our study demonstrates that intrapartum, SARS-CoV-2 infection was not associated with evaluated poor outcomes. In utero fetal and placental infections and possible vertical and/or horizontal viral transfer to the newborn were detected among women with nasal SARS-CoV-2 infection.

KEY POINTS

· Intrapartum SARS-CoV-2 infection was not associated with evaluated poor outcomes.. · In utero fetal and placental infections were detected among women with nasal SARS-CoV-2 infection.. · Women with SARS-CoV-2 nasal infection had a higher odds of chronic chorioamnionitis..

Effectiveness of Influenza Vaccination of Pregnant Women for Prevention of Maternal and Early Infant Influenza-Associated Hospitalizations in South Africa: A Prospective Test-Negative Study

BACKGROUND

Influenza vaccination during pregnancy reduces influenza-associated illness in the women and their infants, but effectiveness estimates against influenza-associated hospitalization are limited and lacking from settings with high human immunodeficiency virus (HIV) infection prevalence. We assessed the effect of maternal vaccination in HIV-uninfected women and women with HIV in preventing influenza-associated hospitalizations in infants and the women.

METHODS

During 2015-2018, influenza vaccination campaigns targeting pregnant women were augmented at selected antenatal clinics; these were coupled with prospective hospital-based surveillance for acute respiratory or febrile illness in infants aged <6 months and cardiorespiratory illness among pregnant or postpartum women. Vaccine effectiveness (VE) was assessed using a test-negative case-control study.

RESULTS

Overall, 71 influenza-positive and 371 influenza-negative infants were included in the analysis; mothers of 26.8% of influenza-positive infants were vaccinated during pregnancy compared with 35.6% of influenza-negative infants, corresponding to an adjusted VE (aVE) of 29.0% (95% confidence interval [CI], -33.6% to 62.3%). When limited to vaccine-matched strains, aVE was 65.2% (95% CI, 11.7%-86.3%). For maternal hospitalizations, 56 influenza-positive and 345 influenza-negative women were included in the analysis, with 28.6% of influenza-positive women being vaccinated compared with 38.3% of influenza-negatives, for an aVE of 46.9% (95% CI, -2.8% to 72.5%). Analysis restricted to HIV-uninfected women resulted in 82.8% (95% CI, 40.7%-95.0%) aVE. No significant aVE (-32.5% [95% CI, -208.7% to 43.1%]) was detected among women with HIV.

CONCLUSIONS

Influenza vaccination during pregnancy prevented influenza-associated hospitalizations among young infants when infected with vaccine strains and among HIV-uninfected women.

Use of financial incentives to increase adult vaccination coverage: A narrative review of lessons learned from COVID-19 and other adult vaccination efforts

To encourage COVID-19 vaccination, governments have offered a wide range of incentives to their populations ranging from cash to cows. Often these programs were rolled out at scale before assessing potential effectiveness. To inform future policy, we conducted a narrative review to understand the evidence base informing these programs and the extent to which they are effective. While we found evidence on cash transfers increasing both the coverage and intention to be vaccinated for COVID-19 and other adult vaccines, improvements in coverage were limited. With mixed evidence, lottery programs did not appear to have a consistent meaningful impact on vaccination for COVID-19, and no evidence was identified on the positive effects of other non-cash incentives for COVID-19 or other adult vaccines. We conclude that the impact of cash transfers in incentivizing adult vaccination is marginal and their effectiveness in addressing vaccine hesitancy remains inconclusive.

T-cell responses to SARS-CoV-2 in unexposed South African women

Background: A potential explanation for the fact that the high rate of infection of SARS-CoV-2 in South Africa did not translate into high rates of severe illness and death may be the presence of cross-reactive immunity induced by common cold coronaviruses (CCoV).

Methods: We used SARS-CoV-2 peptide pools and whole virus antigen to stimulate peripheral blood mononuclear cells collected pre-2020 from South African women. Dual-colour FluoroSpot assay was used to measure interferon gamma (IFNγ) and interleukin 2 (IL2) production.

Results: Among the 97 study participants, IFNγ responses were observed in 29.9% of the women and IL2 among 39.2%. Overall, 51.6% of women demonstrated response to at least one stimulant.

Conclusion: We demonstrate the presence of cross-reactive immunity to SARS-CoV-2, which might have been induced by past exposure to CCoV.

Influenza Vaccination Results in Differential Hemagglutinin Stalk-Specific Fc-Mediated Functions in Individuals Living With or Without HIV

Influenza virus hemagglutinin (HA) stalk-specific antibodies have been shown to potently induce Fc-mediated effector functions which are important in protection from disease. In placebo-controlled maternal influenza (MatFlu) vaccination trials of pregnant women living with or without HIV, reduced risk of influenza illness was associated with high HA stalk antibody titers following trivalent inactivated vaccination (TIV). However, the mechanisms of immunity conferred by the HA stalk antibodies were not well understood. Here, we investigated HA stalk-specific Fc effector functions including antibody-dependent cellular phagocytosis (ADCP), antibody-dependent cellular cytotoxicity (ADCC), antibody-dependent complement deposition (ADCD), and FcγRIIa and FcγRIIIa binding in response to seasonal influenza vaccination. These were measured pre- and 1-month post-vaccination in 141 HIV-uninfected women (67 TIV and 74 placebo recipients) and 119 women living with HIV (WLWH; 66 TIV and 53 placebo recipients). In contrast to HIV-uninfected women, where HA stalk-specific ADCP and FcγRIIa binding were significantly boosted, WLWH showed no increase in response to vaccination. HA stalk-specific ADCC potential and FcγRIIIa binding were not boosted regardless of HIV status but were higher in WLWH compared with HIV-uninfected women prior to vaccination. HA stalk-specific ADCD was significantly increased by vaccination in all women, but was significantly lower in the WLWH both pre- and post- vaccination. Co-ordination between HA stalk-specific ADCP and ADCD in WLWH was improved by vaccination. Fc polyfunctionality was enhanced by vaccination in HIV-uninfected women and driven by the HA stalk antibody titers. However, in the WLWH, higher pre-vaccination Fc polyfunctionality was maintained post-vaccination but was decoupled from titer. Overall, we showed differential regulation of Fc effector HA stalk responses, suggesting that HIV infection results in unique humoral immunity in response to influenza vaccination, with relevance for future strategies that aim to target the HA stalk in this population.

SARS-CoV-2 Omicron Symptomatic Infections in Previously Infected or Vaccinated South African Healthcare Workers

We investigated Omicron infections among healthcare workers (HCW) presenting with symptoms of SARS-CoV-2 infection and evaluated the protective effect of vaccination or prior infection. Between 24 November and 31 December 2021, HCW in Johannesburg, South Africa, were tested for SARS-CoV-2 infection by Nucleic Acid Amplification Test (NAAT). Blood samples collected either at the symptomatic visit or in the 3 months prior, were tested for spike protein immunoglobulin G (IgG). Overall, 433 symptomatic HCW were included in the analysis, with 190 (43.9%) having an Omicron infection; 69 (16.7%) were unvaccinated and 270 (62.4%) received a single dose of the Ad26.COV.2 vaccine. There was no difference in the odds of identifying Omicron between unvaccinated and Ad26.COV.2 vaccinated HCW (adjusted odds ratio (aOR) 0.81, 95% confidence interval (CI): 0.46, 1.43). One-hundred and fifty-four (35.3%) HCW had at least one SARS-CoV-2 NAAT-confirmed prior infection; these had lower odds of Omicron infection compared with those without past infection (aOR 0.55, 95%CI: 0.36, 0.84). Anti-spike IgG concentration of 1549 binding antibody unit/mL was suggestive of significant reduction in the risk of symptomatic Omicron infection. We found high reinfection and vaccine breakthrough infection rates with the Omicron variant among HCW. Prior infection and high anti-spike IgG concentration were protective against Omicron infection.

SARS-CoV-2 Omicron-B.1.1.529 leads to widespread escape from neutralizing antibody responses

On 24th November 2021, the sequence of a new SARS-CoV-2 viral isolate Omicron-B.1.1.529 was announced, containing far more mutations in Spike (S) than previously reported variants. Neutralization titers of Omicron by sera from vaccinees and convalescent subjects infected with early pandemic Alpha, Beta, Gamma, or Delta are substantially reduced, or the sera failed to neutralize. Titers against Omicron are boosted by third vaccine doses and are high in both vaccinated individuals and those infected by Delta. Mutations in Omicron knock out or substantially reduce neutralization by most of the large panel of potent monoclonal antibodies and antibodies under commercial development. Omicron S has structural changes from earlier viruses and uses mutations that confer tight binding to ACE2 to unleash evolution driven by immune escape. This leads to a large number of mutations in the ACE2 binding site and rebalances receptor affinity to that of earlier pandemic viruses.

Clinical characteristics and histopathology of COVID-19 related deaths in South African adults

Comparisons of histopathological features and microbiological findings between decedents with respiratory symptoms due to SARS-CoV-2 infection or other causes, in settings with high prevalence of HIV and Mycobacterium tuberculosis (MTB) infections have not been reported. Deaths associated with a positive ante-mortem SARS-CoV-2 PCR test and/or respiratory disease symptoms at Chris Hani Baragwanath Academic Hospital in Soweto, South Africa from 15th April to 2nd November 2020, during the first wave of the South African COVID-19 epidemic, were investigated. Deceased adult patients had post-mortem minimally-invasive tissue sampling (MITS) performed to investigate for SARS-CoV-2 infection and molecular detection of putative pathogens on blood and lung samples, and histopathology examination of lung, liver and heart tissue. During the study period MITS were done in patients displaying symptoms of respiratory disease including 75 COVID-19-related deaths (COVID+) and 42 non-COVID-19-related deaths (COVID-). The prevalence of HIV-infection was lower in COVID+ (27%) than in the COVID- (64%), MTB detection was also less common among COVID+ (3% vs 13%). Lung histopathology findings showed differences between COVID+ and COVID- in the severity of the morphological appearance of Type-II pneumocytes, alveolar injury and repair initiated by SARS-CoV-2 infection. In the liver necrotising granulomatous inflammation was more common among COVID+. No differences were found in heart analyses. The prevalence of bacterial co-infections was higher in COVID+. Most indicators of respiratory distress syndrome were undifferentiated between COVID+ and COVID- except for Type-II pneumocytes. HIV or MTB infection does not appear in these data to have a meaningful correspondence with COVID-related deaths.

Identifying the research, advocacy, policy and implementation needs for the prevention and management of respiratory syncytial virus lower respiratory tract infection in low- and middle-income countries

INTRODUCTION

The high burden of respiratory syncytial virus (RSV) infection in young children disproportionately occurs in low- and middle-income countries (LMICs). The PROUD (Preventing RespiratOry syncytial virUs in unDerdeveloped countries) Taskforce of 24 RSV worldwide experts assessed key needs for RSV prevention in LMICs, including vaccine and newer preventive measures.

METHODS

A global, survey-based study was undertaken in 2021. An online questionnaire was developed following three meetings of the Taskforce panellists wherein factors related to RSV infection, its prevention and management were identified using iterative questioning. Each factor was scored, by non-panellists interested in RSV, on a scale of zero (very-low-relevance) to 100 (very-high-relevance) within two scenarios: (1) Current and (2) Future expectations for RSV management.

RESULTS

Ninety questionnaires were completed: 70 by respondents (71.4% physicians; 27.1% researchers/scientists) from 16 LMICs and 20 from nine high-income (HI) countries (90.0% physicians; 5.0% researchers/scientists), as a reference group. Within LMICs, RSV awareness was perceived to be low, and management was not prioritised. Of the 100 factors scored, those related to improved diagnosis particularly access to affordable point-of-care diagnostics, disease burden data generation, clinical and general education, prompt access to new interventions, and engagement with policymakers/payers were identified of paramount importance. There was a strong need for clinical education and local data generation in the lowest economies, whereas upper-middle income countries were more closely aligned with HI countries in terms of current RSV service provision.

CONCLUSION

Seven key actions for improving RSV prevention and management in LMICs are proposed.

Omicron-B.1.1.529 leads to widespread escape from neutralizing antibody responses

On the 24 th November 2021 the sequence of a new SARS CoV-2 viral isolate spreading rapidly in Southern Africa was announced, containing far more mutations in Spike (S) than previously reported variants. Neutralization titres of Omicron by sera from vaccinees and convalescent subjects infected with early pandemic as well as Alpha, Beta, Gamma, Delta are substantially reduced or fail to neutralize. Titres against Omicron are boosted by third vaccine doses and are high in cases both vaccinated and infected by Delta. Mutations in Omicron knock out or substantially reduce neutralization by most of a large panel of potent monoclonal antibodies and antibodies under commercial development. Omicron S has structural changes from earlier viruses, combining mutations conferring tight binding to ACE2 to unleash evolution driven by immune escape, leading to a large number of mutations in the ACE2 binding site which rebalance receptor affinity to that of early pandemic viruses.

High-throughput nanofluidic real-time PCR to discriminate Pneumococcal Conjugate Vaccine (PCV)-associated serogroups 6, 18, and 22 to serotypes using modified oligonucleotides

Current real-time high-throughput Polymerase Chain Reaction (qPCR) methods do not distinguish serotypes 6A from 6B, 18C from 18A/B and 22F from 22A. We established a nanofluidic real-time PCR (Fluidigm) for serotyping that included Dual-Priming-Oligonucleotides (DPO), a Locked-Nucleic-Acid (LNA) probe and TaqMan assay-sets for high-throughput serotyping. The designed assay-sets target capsular gene wciP in serogroup 6, wciX and wxcM in serogroup 18, and wcwA in serogroup 22. An algorithm combining results from published assay-sets (6A/B/C/D; 6C/D; 18A/B/C; 22A/F) and designed assay-sets for 6A/C; 18B/C/F; 18C/F, 18F and 22F was validated through blind analysis of 1973 archived clinical samples collected from South African children ≤ 5-years-old (2009–2011), previously serotyped with the culture-based Quellung method. All assay-sets were efficient (92–101%), had low variation between replicates (R² > 0.98), and were able to detect targets at a limit of detection (LOD) of < 100 Colony-Forming-Units (CFU)/mL of sample. There was high concordance (Kappa = 0.73–0.92); sensitivity (85–100%) and specificity (96–100%) for Fluidigm compared with Quellung for serotyping 6A; 6B; 6C; 18C and 22F. Fluidigm distinguishes vaccine-serotypes 6A, 6B, 18C, next-generation PCV-serotype 22F and non-vaccine-serotypes 6C, 6D, 18A, 18B, 18F and 22A. Discriminating single serotypes is important for assessing serotype replacement and the impact of PCVs on vaccine- and non-vaccine serotypes.

RSV: perspectives to strengthen the need for protection in all infants

Respiratory syncytial virus (RSV)-the most common viral cause of bronchiolitis-is a significant cause of serious illness among young children between the ages of 0-5 years and is especially concerning in the first year of life. Globally, RSV is a common cause of childhood acute lower respiratory illness (ALRI) and a major cause of hospital admissions in young children and infants and represents a substantial burden for health-care systems. This burden is strongly felt as there are currently no effective preventative options that are available for all infants. However, a renaissance in RSV prevention strategies is unfolding, with several new prophylactic options such as monoclonal antibodies and maternal vaccinations that are soon to be available. A key concern is that health decision makers and systems may not be ready to take full advantage of forthcoming technological innovations. A multi-stakeholder approach is necessary to bridge data gaps to fully utilise upcoming options. Knowledge must be made available at multiple levels to ensure that parents and doctors are aware of preventative options, but also to ensure that stakeholders and policymakers are given the necessary information to best advise implementation strategies.

T-cell responses to SARS-CoV-2 in unexposed South African women

Background: A potential explanation for the fact that the high rate of infection of SARS-CoV-2 in South Africa did not translate into high rates of severe illness and death may be the presence of cross-reactive immunity induced by common cold coronaviruses (CCoV). Methods: We used SARS-CoV-2 peptide pools and whole virus antigen to stimulate peripheral blood mononuclear cells collected pre-2020 from South African women. Dual-colour FluoroSpot assay was used to measure interferon gamma (IFNγ) and interleukin 2 (IL2) production. Results: Among the 97 study participants, IFNγ responses were observed in 29.9% of the women and IL2 among 39.2%. Overall, 51.6% of women demonstrated response to at least one stimulant. Conclusion: We demonstrate the presence of cross-reactive immunity to SARS-CoV-2, which might have been induced by past exposure to CCoV.

Reduced neutralization of SARS-CoV-2 B.1.617 by vaccine and convalescent serum

Severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) has undergone progressive change, with variants conferring advantage rapidly becoming dominant lineages, e.g., B.1.617. With apparent increased transmissibility, variant B.1.617.2 has contributed to the current wave of infection ravaging the Indian subcontinent and has been designated a variant of concern in the United Kingdom. Here we study the ability of monoclonal antibodies and convalescent and vaccine sera to neutralize B.1.617.1 and B.1.617.2, complement this with structural analyses of Fab/receptor binding domain (RBD) complexes, and map the antigenic space of current variants. Neutralization of both viruses is reduced compared with ancestral Wuhan-related strains, but there is no evidence of widespread antibody escape as seen with B.1.351. However, B.1.351 and P.1 sera showed markedly more reduction in neutralization of B.1.617.2, suggesting that individuals infected previously by these variants may be more susceptible to reinfection by B.1.617.2. This observation provides important new insights for immunization policy with future variant vaccines in non-immune populations.

Estimated impact of maternal vaccination on global paediatric influenza-related in-hospital mortality: A retrospective case series

BACKGROUND

Influenza virus infection is an important cause of under-five mortality. Maternal vaccination protects children younger than 3 months of age from influenza infection. However, it is unknown to what extent paediatric influenza-related mortality may be prevented by a maternal vaccine since global age-stratified mortality data are lacking.

METHODS

We invited clinicians and researchers to share clinical and demographic characteristics from children younger than 5 years who died with laboratory-confirmed influenza infection between January 1, 1995 and March 31, 2020. We evaluated the potential impact of maternal vaccination by estimating the number of children younger than 3 months with in-hospital influenza-related death using published global mortality estimates.

FINDINGS

We included 314 children from 31 countries. Comorbidities were present in 166 (53%) children and 41 (13%) children were born prematurely. Median age at death was 8·6 (IQR 4·5-16·6), 11·5 (IQR 4·3-24·0), and 15·5 (IQR 7·4-27·0) months for children from low- and lower-middle-income countries (LMICs), upper-middle-income countries (UMICs), and high-income countries (HICs), respectively. The proportion of children younger than 3 months at time of death was 17% in LMICs, 12% in UMICs, and 7% in HICs. We estimated that 3339 annual influenza-related in-hospital deaths occur in the first 3 months of life globally.

INTERPRETATION

In our study, less than 20% of children is younger than 3 months at time of influenza-related death. Although maternal influenza vaccination may impact maternal and infant influenza disease burden, additional immunisation strategies are needed to prevent global influenza-related childhood mortality. The missing data, global coverage, and data quality in this study should be taken into consideration for further interpretation of the results.

FUNDING

Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation.

SARS-CoV-2 infection among healthcare workers in South Africa: a longitudinal cohort study

From April to September 2020, we investigated severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) infections in a cohort of 396 healthcare workers (HCWs) from 5 departments at Chris Hani Baragwanath Hospital, South Africa. Overall, 34.6% of HCWs had polymerase chain reaction–confirmed SARS-CoV-2 infection (132.1 [95% confidence interval, 111.8–156.2] infections per 1000 person-months); an additional 27 infections were identified by serology. HCWs in the internal medicine department had the highest rate of infection (61.7%). Among polymerase chain reaction–confirmed cases, 10.4% remained asymptomatic, 30.4% were presymptomatic, and 59.3% were symptomatic.

Hemagglutinin Stalk Antibody Responses Following Trivalent Inactivated Influenza Vaccine Immunization of Pregnant Women and Association With Protection From Influenza Virus Illness

BACKGROUND

The conserved, immuno-subdominant influenza virus hemagglutinin (HA) stalk region is a potential universal group-specific influenza virus vaccine epitope. We analyzed antibody responses to H1 hemagglutinin stalk domain (H1/stalk) following trivalent influenza inactivated vaccine (IIV3) immunization in pregnant women, and association with protection against influenza virus illness.

METHODS

One hundred forty-five human immunodeficiency virus (HIV)-uninfected pregnant women (68 IIV3 and 77 placebo recipients) and 140 pregnant women with HIV infection (72 IIV3 and 68 placebo recipients) were independently randomized in placebo-controlled efficacy trials of IIV3. Plasma samples were tested for H1/stalk immunoglobulin G (IgG) and hemagglutination inhibition (HAI) antibodies prevaccination and 1 month postvaccination. Women had weekly surveillance for influenza illness, confirmed by polymerase chain reaction.

RESULTS

Increases in H1/stalk IgG (and HAI) antibody levels were elicited post-IIV3, with responses being higher in HIV-uninfected women than in women living with HIV. Among HIV-uninfected vaccinees, there was no correlation (postvaccination) between H1/stalk and HAI antibody responses, whereas a strong correlation was observed in vaccinees with HIV. The H1/stalk IgG concentration was lower among women developing A/H1N1 illness (85.3 arbitrary units [AU]/mL) than those without A/H1N1 illness (219.6 AU/mL; P = .001). H1/stalk IgG concentration ≥215 AU/mL was associated with 90% lower odds (odds ratio, 0.09; P = .005) of A/H1N1 illness. Also, H1/stalk IgG was significantly lower among women with influenza B illness (93.9 AU/mL) than among their counterparts (215.5 AU/mL) (P = .04); however, no association was observed after adjusting for HAI titers.

CONCLUSIONS

H1/stalk IgG concentration was associated with lower odds for A/H1N1 influenza virus illness, indicating its potential as an epitope for a universal vaccine against group 1 influenza virus.

Bacterial nasopharyngeal carriage following infant immunization with pneumococcal conjugate vaccines according to a 2+1 schedule in children in South Africa: an exploratory analysis of two clinical trials

Background: We evaluated bacterial nasopharyngeal carriage (NPC) prevalence and cumulative acquisition following 7-valent pneumococcal conjugate vaccine (PCV7) or pneumococcal non-typeable Haemophilus influenzae protein D conjugate vaccine (PHiD-CV) administration. Methods: Participants were children from two clinical trials in a South African center who received PCV7 (n = 250) or PHiD-CV (n = 100) at ~6 weeks, ~14 weeks, and ~9-10 months of age, and were enrolled between Dec2009-Apr2010 and Mar2009-May2010 in the PCV7 and PHiD-CV studies, respectively. Sample collection, most microbiological assessments, and data re-analysis methods were identical. Results: NPC prevalence of any pneumococcal serotype was 18.5% and 17.0% at pre-vaccination, and 63.1% and 67.3% in 24-27 month-old children among PCV7 and PHiD-CV recipients, respectively. In 24-27 month-old children, 96.1% and 99.0% of PCV7 and PHiD-CV recipients had acquired ≥1 pneumococcal serotype, 53.7% and 62.9% ≥1 PCV7 serotype, 1.5%, and 3.1% ≥1 of serotypes 1, 5 or 7F, 23.2% and 19.6% serotype 6A, 23.2% and 21.7% serotype 19A, 88.7%, and 91.0% H. influenzae, and 50.3% and 62.9% Staphylococcus aureus, respectively. Conclusions: This analysis of two concurrent clinical trials did not reveal differences in bacterial NPC prevalence or acquisition in PCV7- and PHiD-CV-vaccinated children. Trial registration: South African National Clinical Trial Register (NHREC DOH-27-0511-299); ClinicalTrials.gov (NCT00829010).

The disease burden of influenza beyond respiratory illness

Although influenza is primarily considered a respiratory infection and causes significant respiratory mortality, evidence suggests that influenza has an additional burden due to broader consequences of the illness. Some of these broader consequences include cardiovascular events, exacerbations of chronic underlying conditions, increased susceptibility to secondary bacterial infections, functional decline, and poor pregnancy outcomes, all of which may lead to an increased risk for hospitalization and death. Although it is methodologically difficult to measure these impacts, epidemiological and interventional study designs have evolved over recent decades to better take them into account. Recognizing these broader consequences of influenza virus infection is essential to determine the full burden of influenza among different subpopulations and the value of preventive approaches. In this review, we outline the main influenza complications and societal impacts beyond the classical respiratory symptoms of the disease.