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Gu T, Yao L, Meng X, Graff JC, Thomason D, Li J, Dong W, Jiao Y, Aleya L, Maida M, Wang CY, Zangerl B, Genini S, Ray K, Goldman E, Ji J, Alexandrov AV, Sun D, Gu W, Wang Y. A cost-effective plan for global testing - an infection rate stratified, algorithm guided, multiple-level, continuously pooled testing strategy. Sci Total Environ 2021; 765:144251. [PMID: 33387925 PMCID: PMC7833620 DOI: 10.1016/j.scitotenv.2020.144251] [Citation(s) in RCA: 1] [Impact Index Per Article: 0.3] [Reference Citation Analysis] [What about the content of this article? (0)] [Affiliation(s)] [Abstract] [Key Words] [MESH Headings] [Grants] [Track Full Text] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 09/22/2020] [Revised: 11/23/2020] [Accepted: 11/25/2020] [Indexed: 05/05/2023]
Abstract
The most effective measure to prevent or stop the spread of infectious diseases is the early identification and isolation of infected individuals through comprehensive screening. At present, in the COVID-19 pandemic, such screening is often limited to isolated regions as determined by local governments. Screening of potentially infectious individuals should be conducted through coordinated national or global unified actions. Our current research focuses on using resources to conduct comprehensive national and regional regular testing with a risk rate based, algorithmic guided, multiple-level, pooled testing strategy. Here, combining methodologies with mathematical logistic models, we present an analytic procedure of an overall plan for coordinating state, national, or global testing. The proposed plan includes three parts 1) organization, resource allocation, and distribution; 2) screening based on different risk levels and business types; and 3) algorithm guided, multiple level, continuously screening the entire population in a region. This strategy will overcome the false positive and negative results in the polymerase chain reaction (PCR) test and missing samples during initial tests. Based on our proposed protocol, the population screening of 300,000,000 in the US can be done weekly with between 15,000,000 and 6,000,000 test kits. The strategy can be used for population screening for current COVID-19 and any future severe infectious disease when drugs or vaccines are not available.
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Affiliation(s)
- Tianshu Gu
- College of Graduate Health Sciences, University of Tennessee Health Science Center, Memphis, TN 38103, USA; Department of Neurology, Beijing Tiantan Hospital, Capital Medical University, Beijing 100050, PR China
| | - Lan Yao
- Health Outcomes and Policy Research, College of Graduate Health Sciences, University of Tennessee Health Science Center, Memphis, TN 38103, USA; Center for Endemic Disease Control, Chinese Center for Disease Control and Prevention, Harbin Medical University, Key Laboratory of Etiologic Epidemiology, Education Bureau of Heilongjiang Province & Ministry of Health [23618104], 157 Baojian Road, Harbin, Heilongjiang 150081, PR China
| | - Xia Meng
- Department of Neurology, Beijing Tiantan Hospital, Capital Medical University, Beijing 100050, PR China
| | - J Carolyn Graff
- College of Nursing, University of Tennessee Health Science Center, Memphis, TN 38105, USA
| | - Donald Thomason
- Department of Physiology and Biophysics, University of Tennessee Health Science Center, Memphis, TN 38163, USA
| | - Jing Li
- Department of Orthopedic Surgery and Biomedical Engineering-Campbell Clinic, University of Tennessee Health Science Center, Memphis, TN 38163, USA
| | - Wei Dong
- Department of Orthopedic Surgery and Biomedical Engineering-Campbell Clinic, University of Tennessee Health Science Center, Memphis, TN 38163, USA
| | - Yan Jiao
- Department of Orthopedic Surgery and Biomedical Engineering-Campbell Clinic, University of Tennessee Health Science Center, Memphis, TN 38163, USA
| | - Lotfi Aleya
- Chrono-Environnement Laboratory, UMR CNRS 6249, Bourgogne Franche-Comté University, F-25030 Besançon Cedex, France
| | - Marcello Maida
- Gastroenterology and Endoscopy Unit, S. Elia-Raimondi Hospital, 93100 Caltanissetta, Italy
| | - Cong-Yi Wang
- The Center for Biomedical Research, Department of Respiratory and Critical Care Medicine, NHC Key Laboratory of Respiratory Diseases, Tongji Hospital, Tongji Medical College, Huazhong University of Science and Technology, Wuhan 430030, PR China
| | - Barbara Zangerl
- Centre for Eye Health and School of Optometry and Vision Science, UNSW Sydney, Sydney, NSW, Australia
| | - Sem Genini
- Unione Contadini Ticinesi, via Gorelle 7, 6592 S. Antonino, Switzerland
| | - Kunal Ray
- Academy of Scientific & Innovative Research [AcSIR], CSIR - HRDC Campus, Ghaziabad, Uttar Pradesh 201002, India
| | - Emanuel Goldman
- Department of Microbiology, Biochemistry and Molecular Genetics, New Jersey Medical School, Rutgers University, Newark, NJ 07103, USA
| | - Jiafu Ji
- Beijing Cancer Hospital and Key Laboratory of Carcinogenesis and Translational Research, Department of Gastrointestinal Surgery, Peking University Cancer Hospital and Institute, Beijing, PR China
| | - Andrei V Alexandrov
- Department of Neurology, The University of Tennessee Health Science Center, Memphis, TN 38163, USA
| | - Dianjun Sun
- Center for Endemic Disease Control, Chinese Center for Disease Control and Prevention, Harbin Medical University, Key Laboratory of Etiologic Epidemiology, Education Bureau of Heilongjiang Province & Ministry of Health [23618104], 157 Baojian Road, Harbin, Heilongjiang 150081, PR China
| | - Weikuan Gu
- Department of Orthopedic Surgery and Biomedical Engineering-Campbell Clinic, University of Tennessee Health Science Center, Memphis, TN 38163, USA; Research Service, Memphis VA Medical Center, 1030 Jefferson Avenue, Memphis, TN 38104, USA.
| | - Yongjun Wang
- Department of Neurology, Beijing Tiantan Hospital, Capital Medical University, Beijing 100050, PR China.
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