Daylight saving time affects European mortality patterns

All cause and cause specific mortality associated with transition to daylight saving time in US: nationwide, time series, observational study

Objectives

To estimate the association between the transition to daylight saving time and the risks of all cause and cause specific mortality in the US.

Design

Nationwide time series observational study based on weekly data.

Setting

US state level mortality data from the National Center for Health Statistics, with death counts from 50 US states and the District of Columbia, from the start of 2015 to the end of 2019.

Population

13 912 837 reported deaths in the US.

Main outcome measures

Weekly counts of mortality for any cause, and for Alzheimer's disease, dementia, circulatory diseases, malignant neoplasms, and respiratory diseases.

Results

During the study period, 13 912 837 deaths were reported. The analysis found no evidence of an association between the transition to spring daylight saving time (when clocks are set forward by one hour on the second Sunday of March) and the risk of all cause mortality during the first eight weeks after the transition (rate ratio 1.003, 95% confidence interval 0.987 to 1.020). Autumn daylight saving time is defined in this study as the time when the clocks are set back by one hour (ie, return to standard time) on the first Sunday of November. Evidence indicating a substantial decrease in the risk of all cause mortality during the first eight weeks after the transition to autumn daylight saving time (0.974, 0.958 to 0.990). Overall, when considering the transition to both spring and autumn daylight saving time, no evidence of any effect of daylight saving time on all cause mortality was found (0.988, 0.972 to 1.005). These patterns of changes in mortality rates associated with transition to daylight saving time were consistent for Alzheimer's disease, dementia, circulatory diseases, malignant neoplasms, and respiratory diseases. The protective effect of the transition to autumn daylight saving time on the risk of mortality was more pronounced in elderly people aged ≥75 years, in the non-Hispanic white population, and in those residing in the eastern time zone.

Conclusions

In this study, transition to daylight saving time was found to affect mortality patterns in the US, but an association with additional deaths overall was not found. These findings might inform the ongoing debate on the policy of shifting daylight saving time.

The effect of temporal data aggregation to assess the impact of changing temperatures in Europe: an epidemiological modelling study

Background

Daily time-series regression models are commonly used to estimate the lagged nonlinear relation between temperature and mortality. A major impediment to this type of analysis is the restricted access to daily health records. The use of weekly and monthly data represents a possible solution unexplored to date.

Methods

We temporally aggregated daily temperatures and mortality records from 147 contiguous regions in 16 European countries, representing their entire population of over 400 million people. We estimated temperature-lag-mortality relationships by using standard time-series quasi-Poisson regression models applied to daily data, and compared the results with those obtained with different degrees of temporal aggregation.

Findings

We observed progressively larger differences in the epidemiological estimates with the degree of temporal data aggregation. The daily data model estimated an annual cold and heat-related mortality of 290,104 (213,745-359,636) and 39,434 (30,782-47,084) deaths, respectively, and the weekly model underestimated these numbers by 8.56% and 21.56%. Importantly, differences were systematically smaller during extreme cold and heat periods, such as the summer of 2003, with an underestimation of only 4.62% in the weekly data model. We applied this framework to infer that the heat-related mortality burden during the year 2022 in Europe may have exceeded the 70,000 deaths.

Interpretation

The present work represents a first reference study validating the use of weekly time series as an approximation to the short-term effects of cold and heat on human mortality. This approach can be adopted to complement access-restricted data networks, and facilitate data access for research, translation and policy-making.

Funding

The study was supported by the ERC Consolidator Grant EARLY-ADAPT (https://www.early-adapt.eu/), and the ERC Proof-of-Concept Grants HHS-EWS and FORECAST-AIR.

The controversy over daylight saving time: evidence for and against

PURPOSE OF REVIEW

Biannual clock changes to and from daylight saving time have been pervasive in many societies for over 50 years. Governments are considering abandoning this practice and choosing a single permanent time.

RECENT FINDINGS

Our endogenous circadian clock follows our photoperiod, which changes over the year. The acute disruption caused by changing our clocks can affect safety (motor vehicle and on the job accidents), health (cardiovascular disease, drug overdoses, suicide), and human behavior (sport performance, generosity, and procrastination). Although abandoning the clock change could help avoid these acute harms, choosing the wrong permanent time could lead to chronic circadian misalignment, which could have even more profound implications for health, safety, and human behavior.

SUMMARY

Ceasing the biannual clock change may be a good choice, but governments need to be mindful of which permanent time to adopt. Many regions of the world already follow the wrong time during standard time, and circadian misalignment would be amplified by moving to permanent daylight saving time. In many regions, Standard Time better aligns with our circadian clock, thus providing a more natural light cycle that minimizes circadian misalignment.