Evaluating the spike in the symptomatic proportion of SARS-CoV-2 in China in 2022 with variolation effects: a modeling analysis

Despite most COVID-19 infections being asymptomatic, mainland China had a high increase in symptomatic cases at the end of 2022. In this study, we examine China's sudden COVID-19 symptomatic surge using a conceptual SIR-based model. Our model considers the epidemiological characteristics of SARS-CoV-2, particularly variolation, from non-pharmaceutical intervention (facial masking and social distance), demography, and disease mortality in mainland China. The increase in symptomatic proportions in China may be attributable to (1) higher sensitivity and vulnerability during winter and (2) enhanced viral inhalation due to spikes in SARS-CoV-2 infections (high transmissibility). These two reasons could explain China's high symptomatic proportion of COVID-19 in December 2022. Our study, therefore, can serve as a decision-support tool to enhance SARS-CoV-2 prevention and control efforts. Thus, we highlight that facemask-induced variolation could potentially reduces transmissibility rather than severity in infected individuals. However, further investigation is required to understand the variolation effect on disease severity.

Pharmacodynamics and mechanism of Erigeron breviscapus granules in the treatment of ischemic stroke in mice by regulating sphingolipid metabolism based on metabolomics

AIM

Erigeron breviscapus (Vant.) Hand.-Mazz. (EB) granules is the extract preparation of EB, with clear curative effect and unclear mechanism. This study intends to systematically explore the specific mechanism of EB granules in the treatment of IS from the metabolic perspective.

METHODS

The model of transient middle cerebral artery occlusion (tMCAO) in mice was established by the suture-occluded method. The therapeutic effect of EB granules on tMCAO mice was evaluated by behavioral evaluation, brain water content determination, 2,3,5-triphenyltetrazolium chloride (TTC) staining, hematoxylin-eosin (HE) staining, and levels of lactate dehydrogenase (LDH) and neuron specific enolase (NSE) in serum. In order to screen differential metabolites, non-targeted metabolomics technology was used to detect the metabolites in serum before and after administration. Univariate statistics, multivariate statistics and bioinformatics were used to analyze the changes of metabolites in serum of tMCAO mice. The possible related mechanism of EB granules in treating IS was screened by pathway enrichment analysis, and the preliminary verification was carried out at animal level by enzyme linked immunosorbent assay (ELISA) and western blot (WB).

RESULTS

EB granules could significantly improve behavior of tMCAO mice, reduce brain water content and cerebral infarction volume, improve morphology of brain tissue, reduce the levels of LDH and NSE in serum. A total of 232 differential metabolites were screened, which were mainly enriched in many biological processes such as sphingolipid metabolism. The differential metabolite S1P and its receptors S1PR1 and S1PR2 in sphingolipid metabolism were verified. The results showed that the level of S1P in brain tissue increased and the protein expression of S1PR1 decreased significantly after modeling, and reversed after administration, but there was no significant difference in the protein expression of S1PR2.

CONCLUSION

The therapeutic effects of EB granules may be related to affecting sphingolipid metabolism through regulating S1P/S1PR1.

Cardiac MRI feature-tracking-derived torsion mechanics in systolic and diastolic dysfunction in systemic light-chain cardiac amyloidosis

AIM

To describe the myocardial torsion mechanics in cardiac amyloidosis (CA), and evaluate the correlations between left ventricle (LV) torsion mechanics and conventional parameters using cardiac magnetic resonance imaging feature tracking (CMR-FT).

MATERIALS AND METHODS

One hundred and thirty-nine patients with light-chain CA (AL-CA) were divided into three groups: group 1 with preserved systolic function (LV ejection fraction [LVEF] ≥50%, n=55), group 2 with mildly reduced systolic function (40% ≤ LVEF <50%, n=51), and group 3 with reduced systolic function (LVEF <40%, n=33), and compared with age- and gender-matched healthy controls (n=26). All patients underwent cine imaging and late gadolinium-enhancement (LGE). Cine images were analysed offline using CMR-FT to estimate torsion parameters.

RESULTS

Global torsion, base-mid torsion, and peak diastolic torsion rate (diasTR) were significantly impaired in patients with preserved systolic function (p<0.05 for all), whereas mid-apex torsion and peak systolic torsion rate (sysTR) were preserved (p>0.05 for both) compared with healthy controls. In patients with mildly reduced systolic function, global torsion and base-mid torsion were lower compared to those with preserved systolic function (p<0.05 for both), while mid-apex torsion, sysTR, and diasTR were preserved (p>0.05 for all). In patients with reduced systolic function, only sysTR was significantly worse compared with mildly reduced systolic function (p<0.05). At multivariable analysis, right ventricle (RV) end-systolic volume RVESV index and NYHA class were independently related to global torsion, whereas LVEF was independently related to sysTR. RV ejection fraction (RVEF) was independently related to diasTR. LV global torsion performed well (AUC 0.71; 95% confidence interval [CI]: 0.61, 0.77) in discriminating transmural from non-transmural LGE in AL-CA patients.

CONCLUSION

LV torsion mechanics derived by CMR-FT could help to monitor LV systolic and diastolic function in AL-CA patients and function as a new imaging marker for LV dysfunction and LGE transmurality.

Association of glycogen synthase kinase-3β with cognitive impairment in type 2 diabetes patients: a six-year follow-up study

Background

Our previous multicenter case-control study showed that aging, up-regulation of platelet glycogen synthase kinase-3β (GSK-3β), impaired olfactory function, and ApoE ϵ4 genotype were associated with cognitive decline in type 2 diabetes mellitus (T2DM) patients. However, the causal relationship between these biomarkers and the development of cognitive decline in T2DM patients remains unclear.

Methods

To further investigate this potential relationship, we designed a 6-year follow-up study in 273 T2DM patients with normal cognitive in our previous study. Baseline characteristics of the study population were compared between T2DM patients with and without incident mild cognitive impairment (MCI). We utilized Cox proportional hazard regression models to assess the risk of cognitive impairment associated with various baseline biomarkers. Receiver operating characteristic curves (ROC) were performed to evaluate the diagnostic accuracy of these biomarkers in predicting cognitive impairment.

Results

During a median follow-up time of 6 years (with a range of 4 to 9 years), 40 patients (16.13%) with T2DM developed MCI. Participants who developed incident MCI were more likely to be older, have a lower education level, have more diabetic complications, a higher percentage of ApoE ϵ4 allele and a higher level of platelet GSK-3β activity (rGSK-3β) at baseline (P<0.05). In the longitudinal follow-up, individuals with higher levels of rGSK-3β were more likely to develop incident MCI, with an adjusted hazard ratio (HR) of 1.60 (95% confidence interval [CI] 1.05, 2.46), even after controlling for potential confounders. The AUC of the combination of age, rGSK-3β and ApoEϵ4 allele predicted for incident MCI was 0.71.

Conclusion

Platelet GSK-3β activity could be a useful biomarker to predict cognitive decline, suggesting the feasibility of identifying vulnerable population and implementing early prevention for dementia.

Pharmacodynamics and Mechanism of Astragali Radix and Anemarrhenae Rhizoma in Treating Chronic Heart Failure by Inhibiting Complement Activation

Astragali radix (AR) and anemarrhenae rhizoma (AAR) are used clinically in Chinese medicine for the treatment of chronic heart failure (CHF), but the exact therapeutic mechanism is unclear. In this study, a total of 60 male C57BL/6 mice were divided into 5 groups, namely sham, model, AR, AAR, and AR-AAR. In the sham group, the chest was opened without ligation. In the other groups, the chest was opened and the transverse aorta was ligated to construct the transverse aortic constriction model. After 8 weeks of feeding, mice were given medicines by gavage for 4 weeks. Left ventricular ejection fraction (LVEF) and left ventricular fractional shortening (LVFS) were detected by echocardiography. Heart weight index (HWI) and wheat germ agglutinin staining were used to evaluate cardiac hypertrophy. Hematoxylin-eosin staining was used to observe the pathological morphology of myocardial tissue. Masson staining was used to evaluate myocardial fibrosis. The content of serum brain natriuretic peptide (BNP) was detected by enzyme-linked immunosorbent assay kit. The content of serum immunoglobulin G (IgG) was detected by immunoturbidimetry. The mechanism of AR-AAR in the treatment of CHF was explored by proteomics. Western blot was used to detect the protein expressions of complement component 1s (C1s), complement component 9 (C9), and terminal complement complex 5b-9 (C5b-9). The results show that AR-AAR inhibits the expression of complement proteins C1s, C9, and C5b-9 by inhibiting the production of IgG antibodies from B cell activation, which further inhibits the complement activation, attenuates myocardial fibrosis, reduces HWI and cardiomyocyte cross-sectional area, improves cardiomyocyte injury, reduces serum BNP release, elevates LVEF and LVFS, improves cardiac function, and exerts myocardial protection.

The impact of the physical activity intervention on sleep in children and adolescents with autism spectrum disorder: A systematic review and meta-analysis

Pharmacological treatments (i.e., melatonin) and non-pharmacological therapies (e.g., parent-based sleep education programs and behavioural interventions) have been found to result in improved sleep in children and adolescents with autism spectrum disorder (ASD). However, there are several limitations to these treatment approaches, including concerns about the possible side-effects and safety, high-cost and uncertainties of long-term effects. Physical activity (PA) intervention is a promising behavioural intervention that has received increasing attention. However, the effects of PA intervention on sleep are still unclear in this clinical group. This study aimed to synthesize available empirical studies concerning the effects of PA interventions on sleep in children and adolescents with ASD. Following PRISMA guidelines, seven electronic databases: APA PsychInfo, CINAHL Ultimate, ERIC, MEDLINE, PubMed, SPORTDiscus, and Web of Science, were searched from inception to March 2023. Randomized controlled trials/quasi-experimental designs with comparison groups were included. Initially, 444 articles were identified, 13 articles underwent systematic review, and 8 studies with control groups and sufficient statistical data were selected for meta-analysis. Compared to no-treatment control groups, PA interventions had a large positive effect on parent-reported general sleep problems, night awakenings, sleep resistance, sleep duration and actigraphy-assessed sleep efficiency in children and adolescents with ASD.

Predictive evolutionary modelling for influenza virus by site-based dynamics of mutations

Influenza virus continuously evolves to escape human adaptive immunity and generates seasonal epidemics. Therefore, influenza vaccine strains need to be updated annually for the upcoming flu season to ensure vaccine effectiveness. We develop a computational approach, beth-1, to forecast virus evolution and select representative virus for influenza vaccine. The method involves modelling site-wise mutation fitness. Informed by virus genome and population sero-positivity, we calibrate transition time of mutations and project the fitness landscape to future time, based on which beth-1 selects the optimal vaccine strain. In season-to-season prediction in historical data for the influenza A pH1N1 and H3N2 viruses, beth-1 demonstrates superior genetic matching compared to existing approaches. In prospective validations, the model shows superior or non-inferior genetic matching and neutralization against circulating virus in mice immunization experiments compared to the current vaccine. The method offers a promising and ready-to-use tool to facilitate vaccine strain selection for the influenza virus through capturing heterogeneous evolutionary dynamics over genome space-time and linking molecular variants to population immune response.

All cause and cause specific mortality associated with transition to daylight saving time in US: nationwide, time series, observational study

Objectives

To estimate the association between the transition to daylight saving time and the risks of all cause and cause specific mortality in the US.

Design

Nationwide time series observational study based on weekly data.

Setting

US state level mortality data from the National Center for Health Statistics, with death counts from 50 US states and the District of Columbia, from the start of 2015 to the end of 2019.

Population

13 912 837 reported deaths in the US.

Main outcome measures

Weekly counts of mortality for any cause, and for Alzheimer's disease, dementia, circulatory diseases, malignant neoplasms, and respiratory diseases.

Results

During the study period, 13 912 837 deaths were reported. The analysis found no evidence of an association between the transition to spring daylight saving time (when clocks are set forward by one hour on the second Sunday of March) and the risk of all cause mortality during the first eight weeks after the transition (rate ratio 1.003, 95% confidence interval 0.987 to 1.020). Autumn daylight saving time is defined in this study as the time when the clocks are set back by one hour (ie, return to standard time) on the first Sunday of November. Evidence indicating a substantial decrease in the risk of all cause mortality during the first eight weeks after the transition to autumn daylight saving time (0.974, 0.958 to 0.990). Overall, when considering the transition to both spring and autumn daylight saving time, no evidence of any effect of daylight saving time on all cause mortality was found (0.988, 0.972 to 1.005). These patterns of changes in mortality rates associated with transition to daylight saving time were consistent for Alzheimer's disease, dementia, circulatory diseases, malignant neoplasms, and respiratory diseases. The protective effect of the transition to autumn daylight saving time on the risk of mortality was more pronounced in elderly people aged ≥75 years, in the non-Hispanic white population, and in those residing in the eastern time zone.

Conclusions

In this study, transition to daylight saving time was found to affect mortality patterns in the US, but an association with additional deaths overall was not found. These findings might inform the ongoing debate on the policy of shifting daylight saving time.

Ambient fine particulate matter constituents and semen quality among adult men in China

Exposure to ambient fine particulate matter (PM2.5) was associated with decreased semen quality, but the relationship between PM2.5 constituents and semen quality was unclear. We recruited 27,824 adult men attending an infertility clinic in Wuhan, China, between 2014 and 2020. We used a four-dimensional spatiotemporal deep forest model to estimate concentrations of PM2.5 mass and its chemical constituents, including organic matter (OM), black carbon (BC), sulfate (SO42-), nitrate (NO3-), ammonium (NH4+), and chloride (Cl-). We employed linear regression models to estimate the association between PM2.5 mass and its constituents with various sperm parameters. Exposure to PM2.5 was associated with a reduction in sperm quality, with a percent change of - 5.69% (95% confidence interval [CI]: -8.53%, -2.85%) for sperm density, - 15.09% (95% CI: -22.24%, -7.94%) for sperm total count, - 1.63% (95% CI: -2.36%, -0.91%) for sperm progressive motility, and - 2.30% (95% CI: -3.04%, -1.55%) for sperm total motility. Among specific constituents, exposure to OM, BC, Cl-, or NO3- was associated with a reduction in these four semen quality parameters. The association was more pronounced among older men or individuals with lower levels of education. Our findings suggest that PM2.5 mass and each constituent were associated with decreased semen quality in adult men.

Risk of Dementia Among Patients With Diabetes in a Multidisciplinary, Primary Care Management Program

Importance

Although poorly controlled diabetes is associated with a higher incidence of dementia, few studies have examined the association of diabetes management interventions with dementia incidence.

Objective

To examine the association of receiving a multidisciplinary diabetes management program (the Risk Assessment and Management Program-Diabetes Mellitus [RAMP-DM]) that enables better glycemic control with subsequent risk of dementia incidence and the association of dementia with glycemic control.

Design, Setting, and Participants

This territory-wide, retrospective, matched cohort study with more than 8 years of follow-up was conducted using electronic health care records from all the patients who used public health care services in Hong Kong from 2011 to 2019. Eligible participants included all patients with type 2 diabetes (T2D) who were managed in primary care settings. Patients who received RAMP-DM were matched in a 1:1 ratio with patients who received usual care only. Data analysis occurred from April 2023 to July 2023.

Exposures

Diagnosis of T2D, hemoglobin A1C (HbA1C) level, and attendance at a general outpatient clinic or family medicine clinic. Patients received either RAMP-DM or usual care.

Main Outcomes and Measures

Incidence of all-cause dementia and subtypes of dementia were compared between the RAMP-DM and usual care participants using a Cox proportional hazard model with other baseline characteristics, biomarkers, and medication history adjusted. HbA1C levels were measured as a secondary outcome.

Results

Among the 55 618 matched participants (mean [SD] age, 62.28 [11.90] years; 28 561 female [51.4%]; 27 057 male [48.6%]), including the 27 809 patients in the RAMP-DM group and 27 809 patients in the usual care group, patients had been diagnosed with T2D for a mean (SD) of 5.90 (4.20) years. During a median (IQR) follow-up period of 8.4 (6.8-8.8) years, 1938 patients in the RAMP-DM group (6.97%) and 2728 patients in the usual care group (9.81%) received a diagnosis of dementia. Compared with those receiving usual care, RAMP-DM participants had a lower risk of developing all-cause dementia (adjusted hazard ratio [aHR], 0.72; 95% CI, 0.68-0.77; P < .001), Alzheimer disease (aHR, 0.85; 95% CI, 0.76-0.96; P = .009), vascular dementia (aHR, 0.61; 95% CI, 0.51-0.73; P < .001), and other or unspecified dementia (aHR, 0.71; 95% CI, 0.66-0.77; P < .001). Compared with having a mean HbA1C level during the first 3 years after cohort entry between 6.5% and 7.5%, a higher risk of dementia incidence was detected for patients with a 3-year mean HbA1C level greater than 8.5% (aHR, 1.54; 95% CI, 1.31-1.80]), between 7.5% and 8.5% (aHR, 1.33; 95% CI, 1.19-1.48), between 6% and 6.5% (aHR, 1.17; 95% CI, 1.07-1.29), and 6% or less (aHR, 1.39; 95% CI, 1.24-1.57).

Conclusions and Relevance

In this cohort study of patients with T2D, the findings strengthened evidence of an association of glycemic control with dementia incidence, and revealed that a multidisciplinary primary care diabetes management program was associated with beneficial outcomes for T2D patients against dementia and its major subtypes. A moderate glycemic control target of HbA1C between 6.5% and 7.5% was associated with lower dementia incidence.

Inferring Incidence of Unreported SARS-CoV-2 Infections Using Seroprevalence of Open Reading Frame 8 Antigen, Hong Kong

We tested seroprevalence of open reading frame 8 antigens to infer the number of unrecognized SARS-CoV-2 Omicron infections in Hong Kong during 2022. We estimate 33.6% of the population was infected, 72.1% asymptomatically. Surveillance and control activities during large-scale outbreaks should account for potentially substantial undercounts.

Vegetation-fire feedbacks increase subtropical wildfire risk in scrubland and reduce it in forests

Climate dictates wildfire activity around the world. But East and Southeast Asia are an apparent exception as fire-activity variation there is unrelated to climatic variables. In subtropical China, fire activity decreased by 80% between 2003 and 2020 amid increased fire risks globally. Here, we assessed the fire regime, vegetation structure, fuel flammability and their interactions across subtropical Hubei, China. We show that tree basal area (TBA) and fuel flammability explained 60% of fire-frequency variance. Fire frequency and fuel flammability, in turn, explained 90% of TBA variance. These results reveal a novel system of scrubland-forest stabilized by vegetation-fire feedbacks. Frequent fires promote the persistence of derelict scrubland through positive vegetation-fire feedbacks; in forest, vegetation-fire feedbacks are negative and suppress fire. Thus, we attribute the decrease in wildfire activity to reforestation programs that concurrently increase forest coverage and foster negative vegetation-fire feedbacks that suppress wildfire.

Effects of empagliflozin on progression of chronic kidney disease: a prespecified secondary analysis from the empa-kidney trial

BACKGROUND

Sodium-glucose co-transporter-2 (SGLT2) inhibitors reduce progression of chronic kidney disease and the risk of cardiovascular morbidity and mortality in a wide range of patients. However, their effects on kidney disease progression in some patients with chronic kidney disease are unclear because few clinical kidney outcomes occurred among such patients in the completed trials. In particular, some guidelines stratify their level of recommendation about who should be treated with SGLT2 inhibitors based on diabetes status and albuminuria. We aimed to assess the effects of empagliflozin on progression of chronic kidney disease both overall and among specific types of participants in the EMPA-KIDNEY trial.

METHODS

EMPA-KIDNEY, a randomised, controlled, phase 3 trial, was conducted at 241 centres in eight countries (Canada, China, Germany, Italy, Japan, Malaysia, the UK, and the USA), and included individuals aged 18 years or older with an estimated glomerular filtration rate (eGFR) of 20 to less than 45 mL/min per 1·73 m2, or with an eGFR of 45 to less than 90 mL/min per 1·73 m2 with a urinary albumin-to-creatinine ratio (uACR) of 200 mg/g or higher. We explored the effects of 10 mg oral empagliflozin once daily versus placebo on the annualised rate of change in estimated glomerular filtration rate (eGFR slope), a tertiary outcome. We studied the acute slope (from randomisation to 2 months) and chronic slope (from 2 months onwards) separately, using shared parameter models to estimate the latter. Analyses were done in all randomly assigned participants by intention to treat. EMPA-KIDNEY is registered at ClinicalTrials.gov, NCT03594110.

FINDINGS

Between May 15, 2019, and April 16, 2021, 6609 participants were randomly assigned and then followed up for a median of 2·0 years (IQR 1·5-2·4). Prespecified subgroups of eGFR included 2282 (34·5%) participants with an eGFR of less than 30 mL/min per 1·73 m2, 2928 (44·3%) with an eGFR of 30 to less than 45 mL/min per 1·73 m2, and 1399 (21·2%) with an eGFR 45 mL/min per 1·73 m2 or higher. Prespecified subgroups of uACR included 1328 (20·1%) with a uACR of less than 30 mg/g, 1864 (28·2%) with a uACR of 30 to 300 mg/g, and 3417 (51·7%) with a uACR of more than 300 mg/g. Overall, allocation to empagliflozin caused an acute 2·12 mL/min per 1·73 m2 (95% CI 1·83-2·41) reduction in eGFR, equivalent to a 6% (5-6) dip in the first 2 months. After this, it halved the chronic slope from -2·75 to -1·37 mL/min per 1·73 m2 per year (relative difference 50%, 95% CI 42-58). The absolute and relative benefits of empagliflozin on the magnitude of the chronic slope varied significantly depending on diabetes status and baseline levels of eGFR and uACR. In particular, the absolute difference in chronic slopes was lower in patients with lower baseline uACR, but because this group progressed more slowly than those with higher uACR, this translated to a larger relative difference in chronic slopes in this group (86% [36-136] reduction in the chronic slope among those with baseline uACR <30 mg/g compared with a 29% [19-38] reduction for those with baseline uACR ≥2000 mg/g; ptrend<0·0001).

INTERPRETATION

Empagliflozin slowed the rate of progression of chronic kidney disease among all types of participant in the EMPA-KIDNEY trial, including those with little albuminuria. Albuminuria alone should not be used to determine whether to treat with an SGLT2 inhibitor.

FUNDING

Boehringer Ingelheim and Eli Lilly.

Impact of primary kidney disease on the effects of empagliflozin in patients with chronic kidney disease: secondary analyses of the EMPA-KIDNEY trial

BACKGROUND

The EMPA-KIDNEY trial showed that empagliflozin reduced the risk of the primary composite outcome of kidney disease progression or cardiovascular death in patients with chronic kidney disease mainly through slowing progression. We aimed to assess how effects of empagliflozin might differ by primary kidney disease across its broad population.

METHODS

EMPA-KIDNEY, a randomised, controlled, phase 3 trial, was conducted at 241 centres in eight countries (Canada, China, Germany, Italy, Japan, Malaysia, the UK, and the USA). Patients were eligible if their estimated glomerular filtration rate (eGFR) was 20 to less than 45 mL/min per 1·73 m2, or 45 to less than 90 mL/min per 1·73 m2 with a urinary albumin-to-creatinine ratio (uACR) of 200 mg/g or higher at screening. They were randomly assigned (1:1) to 10 mg oral empagliflozin once daily or matching placebo. Effects on kidney disease progression (defined as a sustained ≥40% eGFR decline from randomisation, end-stage kidney disease, a sustained eGFR below 10 mL/min per 1·73 m2, or death from kidney failure) were assessed using prespecified Cox models, and eGFR slope analyses used shared parameter models. Subgroup comparisons were performed by including relevant interaction terms in models. EMPA-KIDNEY is registered with ClinicalTrials.gov, NCT03594110.

FINDINGS

Between May 15, 2019, and April 16, 2021, 6609 participants were randomly assigned and followed up for a median of 2·0 years (IQR 1·5-2·4). Prespecified subgroupings by primary kidney disease included 2057 (31·1%) participants with diabetic kidney disease, 1669 (25·3%) with glomerular disease, 1445 (21·9%) with hypertensive or renovascular disease, and 1438 (21·8%) with other or unknown causes. Kidney disease progression occurred in 384 (11·6%) of 3304 patients in the empagliflozin group and 504 (15·2%) of 3305 patients in the placebo group (hazard ratio 0·71 [95% CI 0·62-0·81]), with no evidence that the relative effect size varied significantly by primary kidney disease (pheterogeneity=0·62). The between-group difference in chronic eGFR slopes (ie, from 2 months to final follow-up) was 1·37 mL/min per 1·73 m2 per year (95% CI 1·16-1·59), representing a 50% (42-58) reduction in the rate of chronic eGFR decline. This relative effect of empagliflozin on chronic eGFR slope was similar in analyses by different primary kidney diseases, including in explorations by type of glomerular disease and diabetes (p values for heterogeneity all >0·1).

INTERPRETATION

In a broad range of patients with chronic kidney disease at risk of progression, including a wide range of non-diabetic causes of chronic kidney disease, empagliflozin reduced risk of kidney disease progression. Relative effect sizes were broadly similar irrespective of the cause of primary kidney disease, suggesting that SGLT2 inhibitors should be part of a standard of care to minimise risk of kidney failure in chronic kidney disease.

FUNDING

Boehringer Ingelheim, Eli Lilly, and UK Medical Research Council.

Myokines and Biomarkers of Frailty in Older Inpatients with Undernutrition: A Prospective Study

BACKGROUND

Population aging might increase the prevalence of undernutrition in older people, which increases the risk of frailty. Numerous studies have indicated that myokines are released by skeletal myocytes in response to muscular contractions and might be associated with frailty. This study aimed to evaluate whether myokines are biomarkers of frailty in older inpatients with undernutrition.

METHODS

The frailty biomarkers were extracted from the Gene Expression Omnibus and Genecards datasets. Relevant myokines and health-related variables were assessed in 55 inpatients aged ≥ 65 years from the Peking Union Medical College Hospital prospective longitudinal frailty study. Serum was prepared for enzyme-linked immunosorbent assay using the appropriate kits. Correlations between biomarkers and frailty status were calculated by Spearman's correlation analysis. Multiple linear regression was performed to investigate the association between factors and frailty scores.

RESULTS

The prevalence of frailty was 13.21%. The bioinformatics analysis indicated that leptin, adenosine 5'-monophosphate-activated protein kinase (AMPK), irisin, decorin, and myostatin were potential biomarkers of frailty. The frailty group had significantly higher concentrations of leptin, AMPK, and MSTN than the robust group (p < 0.05). AMPK was significantly positively correlated with frailty (p < 0.05). The pre-frailty and frailty groups had significantly lower concentrations of irisin than the robust group (p < 0.05), whereas the DCN concentration did not differ among the groups. Multiple linear regression suggested that the 15 factors influencing the coefficients of association, the top 50% were the ADL score, MNA-SF score, serum albumin concentration, urination function, hearing function, leptin concentration, GDS-15 score, and MSTN concentration.

CONCLUSIONS

Proinflammatory myokines, particularly leptin, myostatin, and AMPK, negatively affect muscle mass and strength in older adults. ADL and nutritional status play major roles in the development of frailty. Our results confirm that identification of frailty relies upon clinical variables, myokine concentrations, and functional parameters, which might enable the identification and monitoring of frailty.

An established abdominal wall multidisciplinary team improves patient care and aids surgical decision making with complex ventral hernia patients

INTRODUCTION

Abdominal wall reconstruction (AWR) is an emerging subspecialty within general surgery. The practice of multidisciplinary team (MDT) meetings to aid decision making and improve patient care has been demonstrated, with widespread acceptance. This study presents our initial experience of over 150 cases of complex hernia patients discussed in a newly established MDT setting.

METHODS

From February 2020 to July 2022 (30-month period), abdominal wall MDTs were held bimonthly. Key stakeholders included upper and lower gastrointestinal surgeons, a gastrointestinal specialist radiologist, a plastic surgeon, a high-risk anaesthetist and two junior doctors integrated into the AWR clinical team. Meetings were held online, where patient history, past medical and surgical history, hernia characteristics and up-to-date computed tomography scans were discussed.

RESULTS

Some 156 patients were discussed over 18 meetings within the above period. Ninety-five (61%) patients were recommended for surgery, and 61 (39%) patients were recommended for conservative management or referred elsewhere. Seventy-eight (82%) patients were directly waitlisted, whereas seventeen (18%) required preoperative optimisation: three (18%) for smoking cessation, eleven (65%) for weight-loss management and three (18%) for specialist diabetic assessment and management. In total, 92 (59%) patients (including operative and nonoperative management) have been discharged to primary care.

DISCUSSION

A multidisciplinary forum for complex abdominal wall patients is a safe process that facilitates decision making, promotes education and improves patient care. As the AWR subspecialty evolves, our view is that the "complex hernia MDT" will become commonplace. We present our experience and share advice for others planning to establish an AWR centre.

Nano and microparticle drug delivery systems for the treatment of Brucella infections

Nano-based drug delivery systems are increasingly used for diagnosis, prevention and treatment of several diseases, thanks to several beneficial properties, including the ability to target specific cells or organs, allowing to reduce treatment costs and side effects frequently associated with chemotherapeutic medications, thereby improving treatment compliance of patients. In the field of communicable diseases, especially those caused by intracellular bacteria, the delivery of antibiotics targeting specific cells is of critical importance to maximize their treatment efficacy. Brucella melitensis, an intracellular obligate bacterium surviving and replicating inside macrophages is hard to be eradicated, mainly because of the low ability of antibiotics to enter these phagocityc cells . Although different antibiotics regimens including gentamicin, doxycycline and rifampicin are in fact used against the Brucellosis, no efficient treatment has been attained yet, due to the intracellular life of the respective pathogen. Nano-medicines responding to environmental stimuli allow to maximize drug delivery targeting macropages, thereby boosting treatment efficacy. Several drug delivery nano-technologies, including solid lipid nanoparticles, liposomes, chitosan, niosomes, and their combinations with chitosan sodium alginate can be employed in combination of antibiotics to successfully eradicate Brucellosis infection from patients.

Association between ambient temperature, PM2.5 and tuberculosis in Northwest China

   Existing evidence suggested that the risk of tuberculosis (TB) infection was associated to the variations in temperature and PM2.5. A total of 9,111 cases of TB were reported in Ningxia Hui Autonomous Region, China from 2013 to 2015 on a daily basis, and 57.2% of them were male. The TB risk was more prominent for a lower temperature in males (RR of 1.724, 95% CI: 1.241, 2.394), the aged over 64 years (RR of 2.241, 95% CI: 1.554, 3.231), and the high mobility occupation subpopulation (RR of 2.758, 95% CI: 1.745, 4.359). High concentration of PM2.5 showed a short-term effect and was only associated with an increased risk in the early stages of exposure for the female, and aged 36-64 years group. There were 15.06% (1370 cases) of cases of TB may be attributable to the temperature, and 2.94% (268 cases) may be attributable to the increase of PM2.5 exposures. Low temperatures may be associated with significantly increase in the risk of TB, and high PM2.5 concentrations have a short-term association on increasing the risk of TB. Strengthening the monitoring and regular prevention and control of high risk groups will provide scientific guidance to reduce the incidence of TB.

Styrax (Liquidambar orientalis Mill.) promotes mitochondrial function and reduces cardiac damage following myocardial ischemic injury: the role of the AMPK-PGC1α signaling pathway

OBJECTIVES

To explore the effect of extract of Styrax (ES) on myocardial ischemic injury and its molecular mechanism, indirectly providing a theoretical basis for the development of ES.

METHODS

In order to assess the impact of ES treatment on ischemic heart disease, both a left anterior descending ligation-induced myocardial infarction (MI) model and an ischemia/hypoxia (I/H)-induced H9c2 cell injury model have been constructed. Specifically, Sprague-Dawley rats were randomly assigned to the following groups (n = 8) and administered intragastrically once a day for seven consecutive days: Sham group, MI group, ES-L (0.2 g/kg) group, ES-M (0.4 g/kg) group, ES-H (0.8 g/kg) group, and trimetazidine (TMZ, 0.02 g/kg) group. The cardiac functions and biochemical assessment of rats were detected. Then, we validated experimentally the targets and mechanism of ES on these pathological processes in I/H-induced H9c2 cell injury model.

KEY FINDINGS

These results showed that different doses of ES (0.2 g/kg, 0.4 g/kg, 0.8 g/kg, intragastric) significantly improved myocardial structure and function when compared to the MI group. The results of 2,3,5-triphenyltetrazolium chloride (TTC), hematoxylin-eosin, and masson staining indicated that ES could significantly reduce infarct size, inhibit myocardium apoptosis, and decrease myocardial fibrosis. Moreover, ES distinctly suppressed the serum levels of lactate dehydrogenase (LDH), cardiac troponin T (cTnT), and creatine kinase-MB (CK-MB), alleviated myocardial mitochondrial morphology, and stimulated adenosine triphosphate (ATP) production, increased the level of succinate dehydrogenase (SDH), complex I and complex V activity. Different doses of ES (5 μg/ml, 10 μg/ml, 20 μg/ml) also improved cardiomyocyte morphology and decreased the apoptosis rate in H9c2 cells that had been exposed to I/H. Furthermore, the results of western blotting and qRT-PCR indicated that ES promoted the expression of proteins and mRNA related to energy metabolism, including phosphorylated adenosine monophosphate activated protein kinase (p-AMPK), peroxisome proliferator activated receptor gamma coactivator 1 alpha (PCG-1α), nuclear respiratory factor 1, and mitochondrial transcription factor A (TFAM). Mechanically, after the administration of Compound C (dorsomorphin), an AMPK inhibitor, these effects of myocardial protection produced by ES were reversed.

CONCLUSIONS

Collectively, these results demonstrated that ES could improve myocardial mitochondrial function and reduce ischemic injury by activating AMPK/PCG-1α signaling pathway, while indicating its potential advantages as a dietary supplement.

Saponin of Aralia taibaiensis promotes angiogenesis through VEGF/VEGFR2 signaling pathway in cerebral ischemic mice

ETHNOPHARMACOLOGICAL RELEVANCE

Aralia taibaiensis is known for its ability to promote blood circulation and dispel blood stasis, activate meridians and remove arthralgia. The saponins of Aralia taibaiensis (sAT) are the main active components that are often used to treat cardiovascular and cerebrovascular diseases. However, it has not been reported whether sAT can improve ischemic stroke (IS) by promoting angiogenesis.

AIM OF THE STUDY

In this study, we investigated the potential of sAT to promote post-ischemic angiogenesis in mice and determined the underlying mechanism through in vitro experiments.

METHODS

To establish the middle cerebral artery occlusion (MCAO) mice model in vivo. First of all, we examined the neurological function, brain infarct volume, and degree of brain swelling in MCAO mice. We also observed pathological changes in brain tissue, ultrastructural changes in blood vessels and neurons, and the degree of vascular neovascularization. Additionally, we established the oxygen-glucose deprivation/reoxygenation (OGD/R) -human umbilical vein endothelial cells (HUVECs) model in vitro to detect the survival, proliferation, migration and tube formation of OGD/R HUVECs. Finally, we verified the regulatory mechanism of Src and PLCγ1 siRNA on sAT promoting angiogenesis by cell transfection technique.

RESULTS

In the cerebral ischemia-reperfusion mice, sAT distinctly improved the cerebral infarct volume, brain swelling degree, neurological dysfunction, and brain histopathological morphology due to cerebral ischemia/reperfusion injury. It also increased the double positive expression of BrdU and CD31 in brain tissue, promoted the release of VEGF and NO and decreased the release of NSE and LDH. In the OGD/R HUVECs, sAT significantly improved cell survival, proliferation, migration and tube formation, promoted the release of VEGF and NO, and increased the expression of VEGF, VEGFR2, PLCγ1, ERK1/2, Src and eNOS. Surprisingly, the effect of sAT on angiogenesis was inhibited by Src siRNA and PLCγ1 siRNA in OGD/R HUVECs.

CONCLUSION

The results proved that sAT promotes angiogenesis in cerebral ischemia-reperfusion mice and its mechanism is to regulate VEGF/VEGFR2 and then regulate Src/eNOS and PLCγ1/ERK1/2.

Cytokine profile and antioxidants status in the moderate and severe COVID-19 patients: a trial of ozone therapy impact as a medicinal supplement

BACKGROUND

Complementary ozone therapy has been identified as a revolutionary medical technique for a number of goals and ailments. At the present, it has been shown that ozone has medicinal qualities, such as antibacterial, antifungal, and antiparasitic properties. Coronavirus (SARS-CoV-2) is quickly spread over the globe. Cytokine storms and oxidative stress seem to play a substantial role in the most of acute attacks of the disease. The aim of this research was to assess the therapeutic advantages of complementary ozone therapy on the cytokine profile and antioxidant status in COVID-19 patients.

METHODS

The statistical sample of this study included two hundred patients with COVID-19. One hundred COVID-19 patients (treatment group) received 240 ml of the patient's blood and an equal volume of O2/O3 gas at a concentration of 35-50 μg/ml daily, which gradually increased in concentration, and were kept for 5-10 days and one hundred patients (control group) received standard treatment. The secretion levels of IL-6, TNF-α, IL-1β, IL-10 cytokines, SOD, CAT and GPx were compared between control patients (standard treatment) and standard treatment plus intervention (ozone) before and after treatment.

RESULTS

The findings indicated a significant decrease in the level of IL-6, TNF-α, IL-1β in group receiving complementary ozone therapy in compared with control group. Furthermore, a significant increase was found in the level of IL-10 cytokine. Moreover, SOD, CAT and GPx levels revealed a significant increase in complementary ozone therapy group compared to control group.

CONCLUSIONS

Our results revealed that complementary ozone therapy can be used as a medicinal complementary therapy to reduce and control inflammatory cytokines and oxidative stress status in patients with COVID-19 as revealed its antioxidant and anti-inflammatory effects.

Polarization multiplexing silicon photonic optical phased array with a wide scanning range

We propose and experimentally demonstrate a polarization multiplexed silicon optical phased array (OPA) with a wide scanning range. The two polarization states share the same power splitter tree and the phase shifter array. A polarization switch is introduced in front of the power splitter tree to manipulate the polarization state of the light in OPA. Through a polarization splitter-rotator (PSR), the light of two polarization states propagates into the superlattice grating antenna array. The wavelength tuning efficiency could be doubled by optimizing the parameters of the waveguide grating. We demonstrate the scheme on the commonly used 220 nm silicon-on-insulator (SOI) platform. Experimental results indicate that the 24.8° vertical scanning range could be realized with a high wavelength tuning efficiency of 0.31°/nm. The measured field of view (FOV) is 24.8 × 60°.

Dynamical modeling the effect of glucagon-like peptide on glucose-insulin regulatory system based on mice experimental observation

As an emerging global epidemic, type 2 diabetes mellitus (T2DM) represents one of the leading causes of morbidity and mortality worldwide. Existing evidences demonstrated that glucagon-like peptide-1 (GLP-1) modulate the glucose regulatory system by enhancing the β-cell function. However, the detailed process of GLP-1 in glycaemic regulator for T2DM remains to be clarified. Thus, in this study, we propose an Institute of Cancer Research (ICR) mice high fat and cholesterol dietary experimental data-driven mathematical model to investigate the secretory effect of GLP-1 on the dynamics of glucose-insulin regulatory system. Specifically, we develop a mathematical model of GLP-1 dynamics as part of the interaction model of β-cell, insulin, and glucose dynamics. The parameter estimation and data fitting are in agreement with the data in mice experiments In addition, uncertainty quantification is performed to explore the possible factors that influence the pathways leading to the pathological state. Model analyses reveal that the high fat or high cholesterol diet stimulated GLP-1 plays an important role in the dynamics of glucose, insulin and β cells in short-term. These results show that enhanced GLP-1 may mitigate the dysregulation of glucose-insulin regulatory system via promoting the β cells function and stimulating secretion of insulin, which offers an in-depth insights into the mechanistic of hyperglycemia from dynamical approach and provide the theoretical basis for GLP-1 served as a potential clinical targeted drug for treatment of T2DM.

[Primary hepatic angiosarcoma: a clinicopathological analysis of nine cases]

Objective: To investigate the clinical manifestations, histomorphology, and differential diagnosis of primary hepatic angiosarcoma. Methods: Nine cases of primary hepatic angiosarcoma diagnosed in the Department of Pathology, the First Affiliated Hospital of Nanjing Medical University from January 2014 to December 2021 were collected, including biopsy and surgical specimens. The histomorphology, clinical, and radiologic findings were analyzed. The relevant literature was also reviewed. Results: There were six males and three females, aged 30 to 73 years (mean 57 years). Grossly, the growth pattern of the tumor was classified as either mass formation or non-mass formation (sinusoidal). Microscopically, the mass-forming primary hepatic angiosarcoma were further subdivided into vasoformative or non-vasoformative growth patterns; and those non-vasoformative tumors had either epithelioid, spindled, or undifferentiated sarcomatoid features. Sinusoidal primary hepatic angiosarcoma on the other hand presented with markedly dilated and congested blood vessels of varying sizes, with mild to moderately atypical endothelial cells. Follow-up in all nine cases revealed 8 mortality ranging from 1 to 18 months (mean 5 months) from initial diagnosis. One patient was alive with disease within a period of 48 months. Conclusions: Primary hepatic angiosarcoma is a rare entity with a wide spectrum of histomorphology, and often misdiagnosed. It should be considered when there are dilated and congested sinusoids, with overt nuclear atypia. The overall biological behavior is aggressive, and the prognosis is worse.

Relationship between temperature variability and daily hospitalisations in Hong Kong over two decades

Background

Studies have highlighted the impacts of temperature variability (TV) on mortality from respiratory diseases and cardiovascular diseases, with inconsistent results specifically in subtropical urban areas than temperate ones. We aimed to fully determine TV-associated health risks over a spectrum of diseases and various subgroups in a subtropical setting.

Methods

Using inpatient data from all public hospitals in Hong Kong from 1999 to 2019, we examined the TV-hospitalisation associations by causes, ages, and seasons by fitting a quasi-Poisson regression. We presented the results as estimated percentage changes of hospitalisations per interquartile range (IQR) of TV.

Results

TVs in exposure days from 0-5 days (TV0-5) to 0-7 days (TV0-7) had detrimental effects on hospitalisation risks in Hong Kong. The overall population was significantly affected over TV0-5 to TV0-7 in endocrine, nutritional and metabolic (from 0.53% to 0.58%), respiratory system (from 0.38% to 0.53%), and circulatory systems diseases (from 0.47% to 0.56%). While we found no association with seasonal disparities, we did observe notable disparities by age, highlighting older adults' vulnerability to TVs. For example, people aged ≥65 years experienced the highest change of 0.88% (95% CI = 0.34%, 1.41%) in hospitalizations for injury and poisoning per IQR increase in TV0-4.

Conclusions

Our population-based study highlighted that TV-related health burden, usually regarded as minimal compared to other environmental factors, should receive more attention and be addressed in future relevant health policies, especially for vulnerable populations during the cold seasons.

Effectiveness of the booster dose of inactivated COVID-19 vaccine against Omicron BA.5 infection: a matched cohort study of adult close contacts

BACKGROUND

Although COVID-19 vaccines and their booster regimens protect against symptomatic infections and severe outcomes, there is limited evidence about their protection against asymptomatic and symptomatic infections in real-world settings, particularly when considering that the majority of SARS-CoV-2 Omicron infections were asymptomatic. We aimed to assess the effectiveness of the booster dose of inactivated vaccines in mainland China, i.e., Sinopharm (BBIBP-CorV) and Sinovac (CoronaVac), against Omicron infection in an Omicron BA.5 seeded epidemic.

METHODS

Based on an infection-naive but highly vaccinated population in Urumqi, China, the study cohort comprised all 37,628 adults who had a contact history with individuals having SARS-CoV-2 infections, i.e., close contacts, between August 1 and September 7, 2022. To actively detect SARS-CoV-2 infections, RT-PCR tests were performed by local authorities on a daily basis for all close contacts, and a testing-positive status was considered a laboratory-confirmed outcome. The cohort of close contacts was matched at a ratio of 1:5 with the fully vaccinated (i.e., 2 doses) and booster vaccinated groups (i.e., 3 doses) according to sex, age strata, calendar date, and contact settings. Multivariate conditional logistic regression models were adopted to estimate the marginal effectiveness of the booster dose against Omicron BA.5 infection after adjusting for confounding variables. Subgroup analyses were performed to assess vaccine effectiveness (VE) in different strata of sex, age, the time lag from the last vaccine dose to exposure, and the vaccination status of the source case. Kaplan-Meier curves were employed to visualize the follow-up process and testing outcomes among different subgroups of the matched cohort.

FINDINGS

Before matching, 37,099 adult close contacts were eligible for cohort enrolment. After matching, the 2-dose and 3-dose groups included 3317 and 16,051 contacts, and the proportions with Omicron infections were 1.03% and 0.62% among contacts in the 2-dose and 3-dose groups, respectively. We estimated that the adjusted effectiveness of the inactivated booster vaccine versus 2 doses against Omicron infection was 35.5% (95% CI 2.0, 57.5). The booster dose provided a higher level of protection, with an effectiveness of 60.2% (95% CI 22.8, 79.5) for 15-180 days after vaccination, but this VE decreased to 35.0% (95% CI 2.8, 56.5) after 180 days. Evidence for the protection of the booster dose was detected among young adults aged 18-39 years, but was not detected for those aged 40 years or older.

INTERPRETATION

The receipt of the inactivated vaccine booster dose was associated with a significantly lower Omicron infection risk, and our findings confirmed the vaccine effectiveness (VE) of booster doses against Omicron BA.5 variants. Given the rapid evolution of SARS-CoV-2, we highlight the importance of continuously monitoring the protective performance of vaccines against the genetic variants of SARS-CoV-2, regardless of existing vaccine coverage.

Age-Related Differences in Accelerometer-Assessed Physical Activity and Sleep Parameters Among Children and Adolescents With and Without Autism Spectrum Disorder: A Meta-Analysis

Importance

Physical inactivity and sleep disorders are health-related concerns of youth with autism spectrum disorder (ASD) that can persist from childhood and exacerbate core symptoms. However, evidence on group differences in accelerometer-assessed physical activity and sleep parameters among youth with and without ASD is inconclusive and age-specific effects remain unclear.

Objective

To synthesize evidence on group differences in accelerometer-assessed physical activity and sleep parameters and examine the moderating effects of age between children and adolescents with and without ASD.

Data Sources

American Psychological Association PsychInfo, CINAHL Ultimate, ERIC, MEDLINE, SPORTDiscus with Full Text, and Web of Science from inception to February 2023.

Study Selection

Two independent reviewers screened articles for observational research comparing accelerometer-assessed physical activity levels and sleep parameters in children and adolescents with and without ASD.

Data Extraction and Synthesis

After developing a standardized form, relevant data were extracted. Quality was assessed using the McMaster Critical Review Form and rated based on sample, measurement, and analyses. The Preferring Reporting Items for Systematic Reviews and Meta-Analyses guideline was followed.

Main Outcomes and Measures

The primary outcomes were actigraphy-measured MVPA, sleep latency, sleep efficiency, total sleep time, and wake after sleep onset. Data were pooled using a random-effects model. Hedges g was used to express the effect size index. Meta-regression on age was also performed to investigate the potential moderating effects.

Results

Collectively, 1757 studies were initially identified. Among 104 articles that were assessed, 28 were included, comprising moderate-to-vigorous physical activity (MVPA), 4 sleep parameters, and 73 independent effect sizes. A total of 28 studies were included in analysis, comprising 805 children and adolescents with ASD and 1573 without ASD (age range, 5.1-16.9 years). Compared with peers without ASD, children and adolescents with ASD had a small-to-moderate difference in MVPA (g = -0.450; 95% CI, -0.622 to -0.277), total sleep time (g = -0.332; 95% CI, -0.574 to -0.090), sleep efficiency (g = -0.424; 95% CI, -0.645 to -0.203), and a moderate difference in sleep latency (g = 0.514; 95% CI, 0.351 to 0.677) measured by actigraphy. Children and adolescents with ASD experienced an age-related decline in moderate-to-vigorous physical activity (β = -0.049 [95% CI, -0.097 to -0.001]; P = .045), indicating that younger children with ASD showed a smaller difference in MVPA compared with their peers without ASD. Moderating effects of age on sleep parameters were not significant.

Conclusions and Relevance

The findings of this meta-analysis suggested that children and adolescents with ASD had lower MVPA and worse sleep than peers without ASD, and the difference in MVPA varied with age. These findings reinforce the need for public health initiatives aimed at reducing these group disparities.

Sarcopenia as a Predictor of Neoadjuvant Therapy-Related Toxicity in Esophageal Squamous Cell Carcinoma Patients

PURPOSE/OBJECTIVE(S)

Sarcopenia, characterized by loss of muscle mass, plays a critical role in patients with esophageal squamous cell cancer (ESCC). Preoperative chemoradiotherapy and immunotherapy in ESCC patients has been reported to improve survival. Therefore, we sought to evaluate the predictive value of preoperative sarcopenia for toxicity and pathological tumor response to neoadjuvant therapy (NAT) in ESCC patients.

MATERIALS/METHODS

A retrospective analysis was performed using a prospectively collected patient cohort of an academic cancer center diagnosed with cT2-4N0-3M0 ESCC between 2019-2022 and treated with neoadjuvant chemoradiotherapy ± pembrolizumab. Sarcopenia was assessed by skeletal muscle index at the third lumbar vertebra in computed tomography scans before NAT (men: 43cm²/m² for body mass index (BMI) < 25kg/m², 53cm²/m² for BMI≥25 kg/m²; women: 41cm²/m²). Logistic regression was performed to assess the association between sarcopenia and preoperative therapy-related toxicity and tumor response.

RESULTS

The study included 59 locally advanced ESCC patients (53 male and 6 female), 48 (81.4%) in the non-sarcopenia group, and 11 (18.6%) in the sarcopenia group. Mean age at diagnosis was 62±8 years. Mean BMI at diagnosis was 22.13±2.85 kg/m². 19 patients (32.2%) were stage ⅢA, 25 patients (42.4%) were ⅢB, 15 patients (25.4%) were ⅣA. No significant differences were found between both groups regarding sex, age, BMI, and clinical stage. Acute grade ≥3 toxicity occurred significantly more frequently in the sarcopenia group (54.5% vs. 22.9%, p = 0.045), which mainly included leukopenia, neutropenia, anemia and thrombocytopenia. The discontinuation of NAT owing to toxicity occurred in 8 patients (13.5%), which was significantly associated with sarcopenia (p = 0.003). All patients proceeded to surgery and 33 patients (55.9%) had a pathological complete response (pCR). Univariate analysis revealed no significant association between sarcopenia and pCR (p = 0.071).

CONCLUSION

Among patients with locally advanced EC, sarcopenia is not a predictor of poor NAT response, but it is strongly associated with discontinuation of NAT due to toxicity.

Low-Dose Fractionated Radiotherapy Combined with Neoadjuvant Chemotherapy for T3-4 Nasopharyngeal Carcinoma Patients: The Preliminary Results of a Phase II Randomized Controlled Trial

PURPOSE/OBJECTIVE(S)

Over 70% of NPC patients were local advanced NPC (LANPC). The 5-year local recurrence-free survival rate is only 70% in T3-4 patients. Neoadjuvant chemotherapy (NACT) followed with concurrent chemoradiotherapy (CCRT) was recommended for LANPC patients. Low-dose fractionated radiotherapy (LDFRT), which is <100cGy, induces enhanced cell killing by the hyper-radiation sensitivity phenomenon and potentiates effects of chemotherapy. The synergy of LDFRT and NACT has not been used in the clinical practice and few studies focused on it. A single arm study found the ORR of primary site was improved to 90% for head and neck squamous carcinoma patients treated with LDFRT and NACT. Our previous study found the ORR of lymph nodes was higher in LDFRT group for high-risk LANPC patients. However, another study showed there was no significant difference between LDFRT and control group for LANPC patients. So, we aimed to investigate the potential efficacy of this novel neoadjuvant therapy for T3-4 NPC patients.

MATERIALS/METHODS

A total of 60 pathological confirmed T3-4 (UICC/AJCC8th) NPC patients were prospectively enrolled in our study. They were randomly assigned to two groups. For the LDFRT group, the patients received 3 cycles of NACT (docetaxel 75mg/m2 D1, cisplatin 80mg/m2 D1) with LDFRT, and followed with CCRT. LDFRT was delivered as 50cGy per fraction twice a day to primary site on D1,2 for each cycle of NACT. The patients in the control group only received NACT and followed with CCRT. All the patients underwent IGRT. RECIST criteria and CTCAE 5.0 was used to evaluate the ORR and toxicity at post-NACT and the completion of CCRT.

RESULTS

From February 2022 to December 2022, 60 T3-4 NPC patients were included, and 30 patients for each group. For the primary site, the median volume reduction rate and the ORR after NACT was significantly improved in LDFRT group (69.27% vs 40.10%, p<0.001;93.33% vs 73.33%, p = 0.038). For the median volume reduction rate of primary site and lymph node, it was also obviously improved in LDFRT group (86.59% vs 55.43%, p<0.001). Though there was a tendency of ORR improvement in LDFRT group, but no significant difference (96.67% vs 83.33%, p = 0.195). After the completion of CCRT, the median volume reduction rate of primary site had an increased tendency in LDFRT group (96.16% vs 88.3%, p = 0.065), but the ORR had no statistical significance (LDFRT group: CR 45.8%, PR 54.2%; control group: CR 37.5%, PR 62.5%). For the toxicity, the incidence of grade 3-4 adverse events had no difference between two groups (p = 0.786). No grade 5 adverse events occurred.

CONCLUSION

LDFRT combined with NACT could obviously improve the median volume reduction rate and ORR of primary tumor for T3-4 NPC patients, and the toxicity was similar and tolerable. This novel treatment could be a promising strategy to improve treatment response and needed to be confirmed further.

Long-Term Survival Outcome for Metastatic Nasopharyngeal Carcinoma Patients Receiving Radiation to Primary and Metastatic Sites with Palliative Chemotherapy

PURPOSE/OBJECTIVE(S)

A total of 6% - 8% of NPC patients were initial diagnosed as distant metastatic disease. The median overall survival (OS) is only 10-15 months with palliative chemotherapy for these patients. A phase III study showed that palliative chemotherapy combined with radical radiotherapy to primary site could be a newly effective treatment method for metastatic NPC. Another phase 2, RCT found that the patients who had the solid tumors with 1-5 metastases received standard palliative care plus stereotactic body radiation therapy (SABR), and the 5-year OS were improved to 42.3%. Nevertheless, there was few studies focus on the radiation to both primary site and metastatic lesions. Therefore, we aimed to investigate the potential clinical benefits for initial diagnosed metastatic NPC patients with radiation to both primary site and distant metastatic lesions plus palliative chemotherapy.

MATERIALS/METHODS

Metastatic NPC patients treated with radiation to both primary site and distant metastatic lesions plus palliative chemotherapy were retrospectively collected in our hospital from May 2008 to May 2022. For treatment group, all patients underwent IGRT according to ICRU reports 50 and 62. The prescribed dose for primary site: GTVT: ≥66Gy, GTVn: ≥66Gy, CTV1: 60-66Gy, CTV2 54-60Gy, CTVln 50-54Gy. And the prescribed dose for distant metastatic lesions was more than 30Gy. For the control group, the patients treated with palliative chemotherapy were selected by propensity score matching from our hospital. The regimen for palliative chemotherapy was cisplatin-based chemotherapy every three weeks (100mg/m2 D1) for both groups. Kaplan-Meier method was used to analyze the OS. Cox regression model was used for multivariate analysis.

RESULTS

A total of 54 metastatic NPC patients with radiation to both primary site and distant metastatic lesions were retrospectively included in the treatment group, and another 54 patients were selected as the control group. The median follow-up time was 52 months. In the treatment group, the median age was 52 years (37-82), male (68%), female (32%), the main metastatic sites were bone (36 cases, 66%), lung (18 cases, 33%) and liver (10 cases, 18%). There were 23 oligometastasis cases and 31 cases. 3-year and 5-year OS in the treatment group were both dramatically improved than control group (63.2% vs 50.6%, p<0.05; 49.6% vs 38.9%, p<0.05). Multivariate analysis showed that T stage, liver metastatic lesion and oligometastases were the independent prognostic factors for them.

CONCLUSION

Palliative chemotherapy combined with radiation to primary sites and distant metastatic lesions might improve the OS for initial diagnosed distant metastatic NPC patients. More prospective clinical trials were needed to confirm it further.

Prediction of Response to Neoadjuvant Chemoradiotherapy Combined with Pembrolizumab in Esophageal Squamous Cell Carcinoma with CT/FDG PET Radiomic Signatures Based on Machine Learning Classification

PURPOSE/OBJECTIVE(S)

PALACE-1 trial has confirm that the addition of pembrolizumab to neoadjuvant chemoradiotherapy (NCRT) improves the pathological complete response(pCR) for esophageal squamous cell carcinoma (ESCC), which might be a novel treatment strategy for ESCC. In the present study, we aim to establish a machine learning model to predict the local response to NCRT+ pembrolizumab for ESCC by using pretreatment 18-fluorodeoxyglucose positron emission tomography (FDG PET) and contrast-enhanced plan CT images.

MATERIALS/METHODS

A total of 65 cases treated with NCRT+ pembrolizumab followed by surgery were prospectively enrolled for analysis from 2019-2022. Each patient contains a contrast-enhanced plan CT and FDG PET images. 52 patients were randomly divided into training set and 13 patients were used as test set. The Extraction of radiomics features was performed using an open-source Python library PyRadiomics automatically. Features were computed according to the radiologist-drawn ROIs on both CT and PET images. In the feature selection stage least absolute shrinkage and selection operator (LASSO) was utilized on CT features and PET features separately. Four different machine learning models were implemented: Support Vector Machine (SVM), Logistic Regression (LR), Random Forest (RF) and XGBoost (XGB). The features selected by LASSO regression were used as model input and the output of the model is "pCR" or "non-pCR". To find the optimal parameter, the 5-fold cross-validation method was used in the training stage. In this study, we use accuracy, sensitivity and specificity as the metrics to evaluate the performance of the model on the testing cohort. The predictive performance of the model was assessed using the area under curve (AUC) of the receiver operating characteristics curve (ROC).

RESULTS

Of the 65 cases treated with NCRT+pembrolizumab, 35 patients archived pCR (53.8%), and 30 archived non-pCR. 1684 radiomics features were extracted from each case, and half of them (842 features) were from CT and others were from PET. Among the machine learning models mentioned above SVM achieves the most promising performance on the evaluation metrics. Accuracy, sensitivity, specificity and AUC score on test set were 0.692, 0.833, 0.571 and 0.786 for CT features and 0.615, 0.667, 0.571 and 0.762 for PET features, respectively. For CT+FDG PET fused features accuracy, sensitivity, specificity and AUC score on test set were 0.769, 0.667, 0.857 and 0.833.

CONCLUSION

In this study, we performed several different machine learning models to predict the response to NCRT+ pembrolizumab among ESCC based on the extracted radiomics features from CT and FDG PET images. The best-performing model based on radiomics features of CT and PET images could identify non-pCR to NCRT + pembrolizumab in EC patients.

Distinguishing the Vaccine Effectiveness of Inactivated BBIBP-CorV Vaccine Booster Against the Susceptibility, Infectiousness, and Transmission of Omicron Stains: A Retrospective Cohort Study in Urumqi, China

INTRODUCTION

With COVID-19 vaccination rolled out globally, increasing numbers of studies have shown that booster vaccines can enhance an individual's protection against the infection, hospitalization, and death caused by SARS-CoV-2. This study evaluated the effectiveness of COVID-19 vaccine BBIBP-CorV booster against being infected (susceptibility), infecting others (infectiousness), and spreading the disease from one to another (transmission).

METHODS

This retrospective cohort study investigated the close contacts of all officially ascertained COVID-19 confirmed cases in Urumqi, China between August 1 and September 7, 2022. Eligible records were divided into four subcohorts based on the vaccination status of both the close contact and their source case: group 2-2, 2-dose contacts seeded by 2-dose source case (as the reference level); group 2-3, 3-dose contacts seeded by 2-dose source case; group 3-2, 2-dose contacts seeded by 3-dose source case; and group 3-3, 3-dose contacts seeded by 3-dose source case. In the four subcohorts, multivariate logistic regression models were used to examine the vaccine effectiveness (VE) for the BBIBP-CorV booster dose. We adjusted for potential confounding variables, including the sex and age of source cases and close contacts, the calendar week of contact history and contact settings. We evaluated the statistical uncertainty using a 95% confidence interval (CI). In addition, we conducted subgroup analyses to evaluate VE by sex.

RESULTS

The sample sizes of groups 2-2, 2-3, 3-2, and 3-3 were 1184, 3773, 4723, and 27,136 individuals, respectively. Overall VE against susceptibility (group 2-3 vs 2-2) was 42.1% (95% CI 10.6, 62.5), VE against infectiousness (group 3-2 vs 2-2) was 62.0% (95% CI 37.2, 77.0), and VE against transmission (group 3-3 vs 2-2) was 83.7% (95% CI 75.1, 89.4). In the sex-stratified subgroups, male close contacts showed similar VE compared to the overall. However, among female close contacts, while the booster dose improved VE against infectiousness and VE against susceptibility, the VEs were not significantly different from zero.

CONCLUSION

BBIBP-CorV vaccine booster was associated with mild to moderate levels of protection against Omicron susceptibility, infectiousness, and transmission. Real-world assessment of protective performance of COVID-19 vaccines against the risk of Omicron strains is continuously needed, and may provide information that helps vaccination strategy.

Improving Interfraction Robustness for IMPT Treatment Planning for Lung Cancer Using Multiple-CT Incorporated Robust Optimization

PURPOSE/OBJECTIVE(S)

Dose deterioration due to motion-induced density variation is a major concern in intensity-modulated proton therapy (IMPT) for lung cancer. Robust optimization is capable to address the intrafraction motion issue but not the interfraction variation. This study aims to investigate the potential of a new robust optimization technique of IMPT in mitigating the interfraction variation of lung cancer patients.

MATERIALS/METHODS

Two optimization techniques were used to create an IMPT plan for a lung cancer case, one was conventional robust optimization (ROcon) considering the perturbation of 3 mm setup uncertainty and 3.5% range uncertainty, and the other was multiple-CT incorporated robust optimization (ROmul) considering one more perturbation quantified using the end-of-inhalation-phase (T0) and end-of-exhalation-phase (T50) CTs. The ROcon plan was optimized on the average-intensity-projection (AIP) planning CT (pCT), and the ROmul plan was optimized on the AIP, T0, and T50 pCTs. The dose prescription was 40 Gy (RBE) in 5 fractions. The patient underwent a verification 4DCT (vCT) scan on six successive days. Both plans were recalculated on the T0 pCT, T50 pCT, and AIP vCT. The dose to the target and organ at risk of the ROcon and ROmul plans on pCT and vCT were compared.

RESULTS

Compared with the ROcon plan, the ROmul plan reduced the deviation of target coverage by greater than 50% in presence of intrafraction motion (ROmul:0.38-0.88%, ROcon:1.90-2.23%) and interfraction variation (ROmul: 0.62-1.63% vs ROcon:0.50-2.75%) while meeting the dose criteria on the planning AIP CT. As for the dose to the organ at risk, the ROmul plan had a slightly high lung V20 (0.3%) than did the ROcon plan on the AIP pCT. The deviations in lung V20 of the ROmul plan (mean 0.15%) on the vCTs were similar to that of the ROcon plan (mean 0.17%).

CONCLUSION

This study indicates that dose variation of an IMPT plan can be reduced in presence of interfraction variation along the treatment course by combining conventional robust optimization and novel multiple-CT optimization using only the planning CT.

[Y-shaped osteotomy in the apical vertebra for treating congenital complex rigid scoliosis:at least 2-year follow-up]

Objective: To investigate the clinical outcome of the coronal Y-shaped osteotomy in the apical vertebra for treating congenital complex rigid scoliosis. Methods: A retrospective analysis was conducted on 66 cases who underwent Y-shaped osteotomy treatment for congenital complex rigid scoliosis in the uppermost vertebra at the Department of Orthopedics,the Second Hospital of Shanxi Medical University from June 2007 to August 2020. There were 19 males and 47 females,with an age of (13.1±5.3) years(range:2 to 30 years).Classification of congenital scoliosis:25 cases (37.9%) were incomplete,13 cases (19.7%) were dysarthritic,and 28 cases (42.4%) were mixed. There were 25 cases (37.9%) with thoracic or rib malformations. 45 cases (68.2%) were complicated with spinal cord malformation.The main radiological indicators included Cobb angle of the curvature,Cobb angle of the local bend,apical vertebral translation (AVT),trunk shift (TS),thoracic trunk shift (TTS),radiographic shoulder height (RSH),coronal balance and sagittal vertebral axis. The preoperative,postoperative immediate,and last follow-up radiological indicators were collected and the operation time,blood loss,hospitalization time,and operation-related complications were recorded. Data were compared by repeated measure ANOVA and paired-t test. Results: All patients underwent surgery successfully. The duration of the first surgery was (221.4±52.8) minutes,and the blood loss during the first surgery was (273.2±41.8) ml. The length of the first hospital stay was (8.8±1.7) days.Unilateral fixation was performed in 19 cases (28.8%),while bilateral fixation was performed in 47 cases (71.2%). The fused segments were 7.5±2.9,and the vertebral pedicle screw density was (68.5±20.6)%. The follow-up time for the 66 patients was (36.7±17.0) months(range:24 to 102 months).The main curve Cobb Angle was improved from (58.5±18.9)°before surgery to (21.1±11.8)°after surgery,and was (23.6±15.3) ° at the last follow-up(F=273.957,P<0.01),with a correction rate of 66.2%. Segmental curve Cobb Angle was improved from (47.9±18.0)° to (16.0±11.3)° after surgery,and was (16.8±12.8) °at the last follow-up (F=270.483,P<0.01)with a correction rate of 69.2%. The AVT,TS,TTS and RSH values improved significantly at the final follow-up (all P<0.05),while coronal balance and sagittal vertical axis were maintained without significant differences between pre-operation and post-operation(both P>0.05). A total of 5 patients underwent staged operation,all of which were residual scoliosis aggravated after the first stage of orthosis operation and had good prognosis after the second stage of operation. Conclusions: Y-shaped osteotomy for the treatment of congenital rigid scoliosis results in good clinical and radiological outcomes without serious complications. This procedure can be considered as an option for the treatment of congenital complex rigid scoliosis.

Influenza vaccine effectiveness against influenza A during the delayed 2022/23 epidemic in Shihezi, China

After the temporary end of COVID-19 in China in February 2023, the influenza epidemic peaked in March across many Chinese places. We recruited a total of 258 all-age subjects presenting influenza-like illness (ILI) in Shihezi city, China from January 1 to March 16, 2023, and tested for influenza virus infection. Using a test-negative design, we assessed influenza vaccine effectiveness (VE) of 56.3% (95% CrI: 13.6, 73.6) against medically attended, influenza illness during the delayed 2022/23 influenza epidemic. The findings contributed to the continuous monitoring of the influenza vaccine performance across the world, especially in the "post-COVID" pandemic era.

Deep learning classification of ex vivo human colon tissues using spectroscopic OCT

Screening programs for colorectal cancer (CRC) have had a profound impact on the morbidity and mortality of this disease by detecting and removing early cancers and precancerous adenomas with colonoscopy. However, CRC continues to be the third leading cause of cancer-related mortality in both men and woman, partly because of limitations in colonoscopy-based screening. Thus, novel strategies to improve the efficiency and effectiveness of screening colonoscopy are urgently needed. Here, we propose to address this need using an optical biopsy technique based on spectroscopic optical coherence tomography (OCT). The depth resolved images obtained with OCT are analyzed as a function of wavelength to measure optical tissue properties. The optical properties can be used as input to machine learning algorithms as a means to classify adenomatous tissue in the colon. In this study, biopsied tissue samples from the colonic epithelium are analyzed ex vivo using spectroscopic OCT and tissue classifications are generated using a novel deep learning architecture, informed by machine learning methods including LSTM and KNN. The overall classification accuracy obtained was 88.9%, 76.0% and 97.9% in discriminating tissue type for these methods. Further, we apply an approach using false coloring of en face OCT images based on SOCT parameters and deep learning predictions to enable visual identification of tissue type. This study advances the spectroscopic OCT towards clinical utility for analyzing colonic epithelium for signs of adenoma.

Association of Vaccine Pass policy and Omicron incidence with COVID vaccine uptakes in Hong Kong

We observed the association of vaccine coverage with the implementation of the Vaccine Pass policy and the intensity of the Omicron outbreak in Hong Kong. Vaccine policy and transparent information dissemination are indispensable interventions promoting vaccination uptake.

Low-loss and power-efficient phase shifter based on an optimized multimode spiral silicon waveguide

Low-loss and energy-efficient phase shifters are an effective tool to reduce the power consumption of large-scale photonic integrated circuits. In this work, a low-loss and power-efficient thermo-optic phase shifter has been demonstrated on the silicon-on-insulator platform. The multimode spiral waveguide is optimized to obtain lower power consumption and low cross talk. The waveguide width is beyond the single-mode region in consideration of low propagation loss. The optimized ultra-low loss 180° Bezier bends are used to further reduce the bending loss. The experimental results show that the excess loss of the phase shifter is only 0.36 dB at 1550-nm wavelength and the power consumption is 4.87 mW/π.

TNF inhibitors associated with cardiovascular diseases and cardiometabolic risk factors: a Mendelian randomization study

OBJECTIVE

There is still disagreement about whether anti-tumor necrosis factor (TNF) therapy is beneficial or detrimental to cardiovascular conditions. This two-sample Mendelian randomization (MR) study aimed to evaluate the effects of long-term tumor necrosis factor (TNF) inhibition on cardiovascular diseases (CVDs) and cardiometabolic risk factors via genetically proxied inhibition of tumor necrosis factor receptor 1 (TNFR1) and TNF.

MATERIALS AND METHODS

Two genetic instruments were examined to mimic the long-term effect of TNF inhibitors. The first were single-nucleotide polymorphisms (SNPs) within or nearby drug-target genes TNFRSF1A and TNF (encoding TNFR1 and TNF) associated with circulating CRP levels. The other instruments were the expression quantitative trait loci (eQTLs) near the genes. Inverse variance-weighted MR (IVW-MR) and summary-based MR (SMR) methods were employed to estimate causal effects.

RESULTS

In IVW-MR analysis, TNF-mediated circulating CRP levels were significantly associated with 4 out of 12 CVDs, including hypertension [odds ratio (OR) = 1.13; 95% CI, 1.09-1.18], coronary artery disease (OR = 3.18; 95% CI, 1.77-5.71), coronary atherosclerosis (OR = 1.05; 95% CI, 1.02-1.08) and type 2 diabetes (OR = 3.48; 95% CI, 1.98-6.10). These findings were also validated in the FinnGen study. Moreover, TNF inhibition was also associated with total cholesterol, triglycerides, apolipoprotein B, systolic blood pressure, serum cystatin C, height, weight, and body mass index.

CONCLUSIONS

In this study, the decrease in several CVDs and cardiometabolic risk factors has been found to be causally associated with genetically proxied TNF inhibitors.

The reinfection threshold, revisited

One mode by which infection-derived immunity fails is when recovery leads to a reduced but nonzero risk of reinfection. This type of partial protection is called leaky immunity with the degree of leakiness quantified by the relative probability a previously infected individual will get infected upon exposure compared to a naively susceptible individual. Previous authors have defined the reinfection threshold, which occurs when the basic reproduction number equals the inverse of the leakiness, however, there has been some debate about whether or not this is a real threshold. Here we show how the reinfection threshold relates to two important occurrences: (1) the point at which the endemic equilibrium changes from being a stable spiral to a stable node, and (2) the point at which the rate of change of the prevalence increases the most relative to leakiness. When the recovery period is short relative to the average lifetime then both occurrences are close to the reinfection threshold. We show how these results are related to the reinfection threshold found in other models of imperfect immunity. To further demonstrate the significance of this threshold in modeling, we conducted a simulation study to evaluate some of the consequences the reinfection threshold might have in parameter estimation and modeling. Using specific parameter values chosen to reflect an acute infection, we found that the basic reproduction number values larger than that of the reinfection threshold value were less identifiable than those below the threshold.

Effectiveness of BNT162b2 and Sinovac vaccines against the transmission of SARS-CoV-2 during Omicron-predominance in Hong Kong: A retrospective cohort study of COVID-19 cases

BACKGROUND

In 2022, SARS-CoV-2 Omicron variants circulated globally, generating concerns about increased transmissibility and immune escape. Hong Kong, having an infection-naive population with a moderate 2-dose vaccine coverage (63% by the end of 2021), experienced a COVID-19 epidemic largely seeded by Omicron BA.2 variants that led to the greatest outbreak in the region to date. Little remains known about the protection of commonly-administered vaccines against transmission of Omicron BA.2 variants.

METHODS

In this retrospective cohort study, we identified 17 535 laboratory-confirmed COVID-19 cases using contact tracing information during the Omicron-predominant period between January and June 2022 in Hong Kong. Demographic characteristics, time from positive test result to case reporting, isolation, or hospital admission, as well as contact tracing history and contact setting were extracted. Transmission pairs were reconstructed through suspected epidemiological links according to contact tracing history, and the number of secondary cases was determined for each index case as a measurement for risk of transmission. The effectiveness of mRNA vaccine (BNT162b2) and inactivated vaccine (Sinovac) against transmission of BA.2 variants was estimated using zero-inflated negative binomial regression models.

RESULTS

Vaccine effectiveness against transmission for patients who received the 2-dose BNT162b2 vaccine was estimated at 56.2% (95% CI: 14.5, 77.6), 30.6% (95% CI: 13.0, 44.6), and 21.3% (95% CI: 2.9, 36.2) on 15 - 90, 91 - 180, and 181 - 270 days after vaccination, respectively, showing a significant decrease over time. For 3-dose vaccines, vaccine effectiveness estimates were 41.0% (95% CI: 11.3, 60.7) and 41.9% (95% CI: 6.1, 64.0) on 15 - 180 days after booster doses of Sinovac and BNT162b2, respectively. Although significant vaccine effectiveness was detected in household settings, no evidence of such protective association was detected in non-household settings for either Sinovac or BNT162b2.

CONCLUSION

Moderate and significant protection against Omicron BA.2 variants' transmission was found for 2 and 3 doses of Sinovac or BNT162b2 vaccines. Although protection by 2-dose BNT162b2 may evidently wane with time, protection could be restored by the booster dose. Here, we highlight the importance of continuously evaluating vaccine effectiveness against transmission for emerging SARS-CoV-2 variants.

Impact of climate change on dengue fever epidemics in South and Southeast Asian settings: A modelling study

The potential for dengue fever epidemic due to climate change remains uncertain in tropical areas. This study aims to assess the impact of climate change on dengue fever transmission in four South and Southeast Asian settings. We collected weekly data of dengue fever incidence, daily mean temperature and rainfall from 2012 to 2020 in Singapore, Colombo, Selangor, and Chiang Mai. Projections for temperature and rainfall were drawn for three Shared Socioeconomic Pathways (SSP126, SSP245, and SSP585) scenarios. Using a disease transmission model, we projected the dengue fever epidemics until 2090s and determined the changes in annual peak incidence, peak time, epidemic size, and outbreak duration. A total of 684,639 dengue fever cases were reported in the four locations between 2012 and 2020. The projected change in dengue fever transmission would be most significant under the SSP585 scenario. In comparison to the 2030s, the peak incidence would rise by 1.29 times in Singapore, 2.25 times in Colombo, 1.36 times in Selangor, and >10 times in Chiang Mai in the 2090s under SSP585. Additionally, the peak time was projected to be earlier in Singapore, Colombo, and Selangor, but be later in Chiang Mai under the SSP585 scenario. Even in a milder emission scenario of SSP126, the epidemic size was projected to increase by 5.94%, 10.81%, 12.95%, and 69.60% from the 2030s-2090s in Singapore, Colombo, Selangor, and Chiang Mai, respectively. The outbreak durations in the four settings were projected to be prolonged over this century under SSP126 and SSP245, while a slight decrease is expected in 2090s under SSP585. The results indicate that climate change is expected to increase the risk of dengue fever transmission in tropical areas of South and Southeast Asia. Limiting greenhouse gas emissions could be crucial in reducing the transmission of dengue fever in the future.

Alcanivorax borkumensis biofilms enhance oil degradation by interfacial tubulation

During the consumption of alkanes, Alcanivorax borkumensis will form a biofilm around an oil droplet, but the role this plays during degradation remains unclear. We identified a shift in biofilm morphology that depends on adaptation to oil consumption: Longer exposure leads to the appearance of dendritic biofilms optimized for oil consumption effected through tubulation of the interface. In situ microfluidic tracking enabled us to correlate tubulation to localized defects in the interfacial cell ordering. We demonstrate control over droplet deformation by using confinement to position defects, inducing dimpling in the droplets. We developed a model that elucidates biofilm morphology, linking tubulation to decreased interfacial tension and increased cell hydrophobicity.

Excess Deaths of Gastrointestinal, Liver, and Pancreatic Diseases During the COVID-19 Pandemic in the United States

Objectives: To evaluate excess deaths of gastrointestinal, liver, and pancreatic diseases in the United States during the COVID-19 pandemic. Methods: We retrieved weekly death counts from National Vital Statistics System and fitted them with a quasi-Poisson regression model. Cause-specific excess deaths were calculated by the difference between observed and expected deaths with adjustment for temporal trend and seasonality. Demographic disparities and temporal-spatial patterns were evaluated for different diseases. Results: From March 2020 to September 2022, the increased mortality (measured by excess risks) for Clostridium difficile colitis, gastrointestinal hemorrhage, and acute pancreatitis were 35.9%; 24.8%; and 20.6% higher than the expected. For alcoholic liver disease, fibrosis/cirrhosis, and hepatic failure, the excess risks were 1.4-2.8 times higher among younger inhabitants than older inhabitants. The excess deaths of selected diseases were persistently observed across multiple epidemic waves with fluctuating trends for gastrointestinal hemorrhage and fibrosis/cirrhosis and an increasing trend for C. difficile colitis. Conclusion: The persistently observed excess deaths of digestive diseases highlights the importance for healthcare authorities to develop sustainable strategies in response to the long-term circulating of SARS-CoV-2 in the community.

Effectiveness of mRNA and inactivated COVID-19 vaccines: A test-negative study in an infection-naïve Hong Kong population

OBJECTIVE

Assess real-world effectiveness of vaccines against COVID-19.

METHODS

A test-negative study was conducted in January-May 2022 during an Omicron BA.2 wave in Hong Kong. COVID-19 was identified by RT-PCR. 1-1 case-control matching was based on propensity score with vaccine effectiveness adjusted for confounders.

RESULTS

Altogether, 1781 cases and 1737 controls aged 3-105 years were analysed. The mean lag time from the last dose of vaccination to testing for SARS-CoV-2 was 133.9 (SD: 84.4) days. Two doses of either vaccine within 180 days offered a low effectiveness against COVID-19 of all severity combined (VEadj [95% CI] for BNT162b2: 27.0% [4.2-44.5], CoronaVac: 22.9% [1.3-39.7]), and further decreased after 180 days. Two doses of CoronaVac were poorly protective 39.5% [4.9-62.5] against severe diseases for age ≥ 60 years, but the effectiveness increased substantially after the third dose (79.1% [25.7-96.7]). Two doses of BNT162b2 protected age ≥ 60 years against severe diseases (79.3% [47.2, 93.9]); however, the uptake was not high enough to assess three doses.

CONCLUSIONS

The current real-world analysis indicates a high vaccine effectiveness of three doses of inactivated virus (CoronaVac) vaccines against Omicron variant, whereas the effectiveness of two doses is suboptimal.

Trends and Disparities in Stage-Specific Incidence of Hepatocellular Carcinoma among US Adults, 2004-2019

Introduction

The aim of this study was to determine the stage-specific incidence trend of hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) among US adults.

Methods

The age-adjusted incidence rate was extracted from Surveillance, Epidemiology, and End Results database for localized, regional, and distant HCC. Trend analyses were conducted in the overall population and stratified by demographic and sociodemographic variables. The annual percentage change (APC) in 2014-2019 was estimated to determine the stage-specific incidence trend.

Results

Although the incidence of localized HCC significantly declined, the incidence for regional and distant HCC plateaued in 2014-2019 (APCs, 4.4% [95% CI, -0.2% to 9.3%] and -0.7% [95% CI, -1.8% to 0.5%], respectively) with age and race/ethnicity disparities. More pronounced increases for regional and distant HCC were observed among the elderly (APCs, 8.4% [95% CI, 4.8-12.2%] and 2.2% [95% CI, 1.7-2.7%] for regional and distant HCC, respectively), non-Hispanic white individuals (APCs, 4.0% [95% CI, 2.9-5.1%] and 1.5% [95% CI, 0.7-2.4%] for regional and distant HCC, respectively).

Conclusions

Disparities in incidence trends may reflect the inequalities in access to primary health care. More efforts are still in great demand for the vulnerable population.