Modelling menstrual cycle length in athletes using state-space models

A contemporary understanding of iron metabolism in active premenopausal females

Iron metabolism research in the past decade has identified menstrual blood loss as a key contributor to the prevalence of iron deficiency in premenopausal females. The reproductive hormones estrogen and progesterone influence iron regulation and contribute to variations in iron parameters throughout the menstrual cycle. Despite the high prevalence of iron deficiency in premenopausal females, scant research has investigated female-specific causes and treatments for iron deficiency. In this review, we provide a comprehensive discussion of factors that influence iron status in active premenopausal females, with a focus on the menstrual cycle. We also outline several practical guidelines for monitoring, diagnosing, and treating iron deficiency in premenopausal females. Finally, we highlight several areas for further research to enhance the understanding of iron metabolism in this at-risk population.

A proficient approach to forecast COVID-19 spread via optimized dynamic machine learning models

This study aims to develop an assumption-free data-driven model to accurately forecast COVID-19 spread. Towards this end, we firstly employed Bayesian optimization to tune the Gaussian process regression (GPR) hyperparameters to develop an efficient GPR-based model for forecasting the recovered and confirmed COVID-19 cases in two highly impacted countries, India and Brazil. However, machine learning models do not consider the time dependency in the COVID-19 data series. Here, dynamic information has been taken into account to alleviate this limitation by introducing lagged measurements in constructing the investigated machine learning models. Additionally, we assessed the contribution of the incorporated features to the COVID-19 prediction using the Random Forest algorithm. Results reveal that significant improvement can be obtained using the proposed dynamic machine learning models. In addition, the results highlighted the superior performance of the dynamic GPR compared to the other models (i.e., Support vector regression, Boosted trees, Bagged trees, Decision tree, Random Forest, and XGBoost) by achieving an averaged mean absolute percentage error of around 0.1%. Finally, we provided the confidence level of the predicted results based on the dynamic GPR model and showed that the predictions are within the 95% confidence interval. This study presents a promising shallow and simple approach for predicting COVID-19 spread.

A predictive model for next cycle start date that accounts for adherence in menstrual self-tracking

OBJECTIVE

The study sought to build predictive models of next menstrual cycle start date based on mobile health self-tracked cycle data. Because app users may skip tracking, disentangling physiological patterns of menstruation from tracking behaviors is necessary for the development of predictive models.

MATERIALS AND METHODS

We use data from a popular menstrual tracker (186 000 menstruators with over 2 million tracked cycles) to learn a predictive model, which (1) accounts explicitly for self-tracking adherence; (2) updates predictions as a given cycle evolves, allowing for interpretable insight into how these predictions change over time; and (3) enables modeling of an individual's cycle length history while incorporating population-level information.

RESULTS

Compared with 5 baselines (mean, median, convolutional neural network, recurrent neural network, and long short-term memory network), the model yields better predictions and consistently outperforms them as the cycle evolves. The model also provides predictions of skipped tracking probabilities.

DISCUSSION

Mobile health apps such as menstrual trackers provide a rich source of self-tracked observations, but these data have questionable reliability, as they hinge on user adherence to the app. By taking a machine learning approach to modeling self-tracked cycle lengths, we can separate true cycle behavior from user adherence, allowing for more informed predictions and insights into the underlying observed data structure.

CONCLUSIONS

Disentangling physiological patterns of menstruation from adherence allows for accurate and informative predictions of menstrual cycle start date and is necessary for mobile tracking apps. The proposed predictive model can support app users in being more aware of their self-tracking behavior and in better understanding their cycle dynamics.