Suicide history and mortality: a follow-up of a national cohort in the United States

Prediction of suicide attempts in a prospective cohort study with a nationally representative sample of the US population

BACKGROUND

There is still little knowledge of objective suicide risk stratification.

METHODS

This study aims to develop models using machine-learning approaches to predict suicide attempt (1) among survey participants in a nationally representative sample and (2) among participants with lifetime major depressive episodes. We used a cohort called the National Epidemiologic Survey on Alcohol and Related Conditions (NESARC) that was conducted in two waves and included a nationally representative sample of the adult population in the United States. Wave 1 involved 43 093 respondents and wave 2 involved 34 653 completed face-to-face reinterviews with wave 1 participants. Predictor variables included clinical, stressful life events, and sociodemographic variables from wave 1; outcome included suicide attempt between wave 1 and wave 2.

RESULTS

The model built with elastic net regularization distinguished individuals who had attempted suicide from those who had not with an area under the ROC curve (AUC) of 0.89, balanced accuracy 81.86%, specificity 89.22%, and sensitivity 74.51% for the general population. For participants with lifetime major depressive episodes, AUC was 0.89, balanced accuracy 81.64%, specificity 85.86%, and sensitivity 77.42%. The most important predictor variables were a diagnosis of borderline personality disorder, post-traumatic stress disorder, and being of Asian descent for the model in all participants; and previous suicide attempt, borderline personality disorder, and overnight stay in hospital because of depressive symptoms for the model in participants with lifetime major depressive episodes. Random forest and artificial neural networks had similar performance.

CONCLUSIONS

Risk for suicide attempt can be estimated with high accuracy.

Mortality following non-fatal suicide attempts by Veterans in Veterans Health Administration care

INTRODUCTION

Little is known regarding long-term mortality outcomes after non-fatal suicide attempts among Veterans Health Administration (VHA) patients, which may inform services delivery and program evaluation.

METHODS

For 4,601,081 Veterans with 2005 VHA encounters, we assessed unadjusted and age-adjusted all-cause and cause-specific mortality through 2017, overall and for Veterans with (N = 8243) versus without (N = 4,592,838) 2005 VHA suicide attempt documentation. Standardized mortality ratios compared mortality rates by suicide attempt status. Multivariable proportional hazards regression models assessed age- and gender-adjusted mortality risk.

RESULTS

Among Veteran VHA users with non-fatal suicide attempt diagnoses, 1.6% died of suicide, 4.6% of non-suicide external causes, and 30.7% of any cause. In age- and gender-adjusted analyses, Veterans who attempted suicide had increased suicide (hazard ratio [HR] = 4.52, 95% confidence interval [CI] = 3.82-5.36), non-suicide external cause (HR = 3.75, 95% CI = 3.38-4.17), and all-cause (separate due to non-proportional hazards: 2006, HR = 2.05, 95% CI = 1.81-2.31; 2007-2017, HR = 1.72, 95% CI = 1.65-1.80) mortality through 2017.

CONCLUSION

Over 12 years, Veteran VHA patients with non-fatal suicide attempt diagnoses had increased risk of suicide, non-suicide external cause, and all-cause mortality. Over 98% of Veteran VHA users who had a diagnosed non-fatal attempt did not die by suicide, highlighting additional program evaluation outcomes and opportunities to support physical and mental health.

Is suicidal behaviour a stronger predictor of later suicide than suicidal ideation? A systematic review and meta-analysis

OBJECTIVE

Suicidal ideation and suicidal behaviour are both regarded as important risk factors for suicide, but it is usually believed that suicidal ideation is less strongly linked to suicide than suicidal behaviours. In this study, we assessed and compared the strengths of the associations that suicidal ideation and suicidal behaviour have with later suicide using meta-analysis of primary studies reporting both these independent variables and the dependent variable of suicide.

METHODS

A total of 51 English language publications describing cohort or controlled studies that reported on both the association between suicidal ideation and suicide and the association between suicidal behaviours and suicide were located using searches for titles in PubMed containing variants of the word suicide (suicid*). Suicides were considered to include reported suicides and open verdicts from mortality registers. The strengths of the two associations were examined in separate random effects meta-analyses and were then compared using mixed effects meta-regression. Subgroups were examined according to study characteristics including the definitions of suicidal ideation or behaviour used, setting (psychiatric or non-psychiatric), diagnostic mix of the study population, study design (cohort or control) and study quality.

RESULTS

Suicidal ideation (odds ratio = 3.11, 95% confidence interval = 2.51, 3.86) and suicidal behaviours (odds ratio = 4.09, 95% confidence interval = 3.05, 5.49) were both significantly associated with suicide but there was no significant difference in the strengths of association (p = 0.14). Nor were there significant differences in the strengths of the two associations in multiple subgroup analyses.

CONCLUSION

Suicidal ideation and suicidal behaviour are both moderately associated with suicide. Existing data cannot conclusively demonstrate that suicidal behaviours are more strongly associated with suicide than suicidal ideation. Clinicians should not strongly prioritise suicidal behaviour over suicidal ideation when considering suicide risk.

Association between suicidal ideation and suicide: meta-analyses of odds ratios, sensitivity, specificity and positive predictive value

BACKGROUND

The expression of suicidal ideation is considered to be an important warning sign for suicide. However, the predictive properties of suicidal ideation as a test of later suicide are unclear.AimsTo assess the strength of the association between suicidal ideation and later suicide measured by odds ratio (OR), sensitivity, specificity and positive predictive value (PPV).

METHOD

We located English-language studies indexed in PubMed that reported the expression or non-expression of suicidal ideation among people who later died by suicide or did not. A random effects meta-analysis was used to assess the pooled OR, sensitivity, specificity and PPV of suicidal ideation for later suicide among groups of people from psychiatric and non-psychiatric settings.

RESULTS

There was a moderately strong but highly heterogeneous association between suicidal ideation and later suicide (n = 71, OR = 3.41, 95% CI 2.59-4.49, 95% prediction interval 0.42-28.1, I2 = 89.4, Q-value = 661, d.f.(Q) = 70, P ≤0.001). Studies conducted in primary care and other non-psychiatric settings had similar pooled odds to studies of current and former psychiatric patients (OR = 3.86 v. OR = 3.23, P = 0.7). The pooled sensitivity of suicidal ideation for later suicide was 41% (95% CI 35-48) and the pooled specificity was 86% (95% CI 76-92), with high between-study heterogeneity. Studies of suicidal ideation expressed by current and former psychiatric patients had a significantly higher pooled sensitivity (46% v. 22%) and lower pooled specificity (81% v. 96%) than studies conducted in non-psychiatric settings. The PPV among non-psychiatric cohorts (0.3%, 95% CI 0.1%-0.5%) was significantly lower (Q-value = 35.6, P < 0.001) than among psychiatric samples (3.9%, 95% CI 2.2-6.6).

CONCLUSIONS

Estimates of the extent of the association between suicidal ideation and later suicide are limited by unexplained between-study heterogeneity. The utility of suicidal ideation as a test for later suicide is limited by a modest sensitivity and low PPV.Declaration interestM.M.L. and C.J.R. have provided expert evidence in civil, criminal and coronial matters. I.B.H. has been a Commissioner in Australia's National Mental Health Commission since 2012. He is the Co-Director, Health and Policy at the Brain and Mind Centre (BMC) University of Sydney. The BMC operates an early-intervention youth services at Camperdown under contract to Headspace. I.B.H. has previously led community-based and pharmaceutical industry-supported (Wyeth, Eli Lily, Servier, Pfizer, AstraZeneca) projects focused on the identification and better management of anxiety and depression. He is a Board Member of Psychosis Australia Trust and a member of Veterans Mental Health Clinical Reference group. He was a member of the Medical Advisory Panel for Medibank Private until October 2017. He is the Chief Scientific Advisor to, and an equity shareholder in, InnoWell. InnoWell has been formed by the University of Sydney and PricewaterhouseCoopers to administer the $30 M Australian Government Funded Project Synergy. Project Synergy is a 3-year programme for the transformation of mental health services through the use of innovative technologies.

Suicidal ideation and subsequent completed suicide in both psychiatric and non-psychiatric populations: a meta-analysis

AIMS

Several authors claimed that expression of suicidal ideation is one of the most important predictors of completed suicide. However, the strength of the association between suicidal ideation and subsequent completed suicide has not been firmly established in different populations. Furthermore, the absolute suicide risk after expression of suicidal ideation is unknown. In this meta-analysis, we examined whether the expression of suicidal ideation predicted subsequent completed suicide in various populations, including both psychiatric and non-psychiatric populations.

METHODS

A meta-analysis of cohort and case-control studies that assessed suicidal ideation as determinant for completed suicide in adults. Two independent reviewers screened 5726 articles for eligibility and extracted data of the 81 included studies. Pooled risk ratios were estimated in a random effects model stratified for different populations. Meta-regression analysis was used to determine suicide risk during the first year of follow-up.

RESULTS

The risk for completed suicide was clearly higher in people who had expressed suicidal ideation compared with people who had not, with substantial variation between the different populations: risk ratio ranging from 2.35 (95% confidence interval (CI) 1.43-3.87) in affective disorder populations to 8.00 (95% CI 5.46-11.7) in non-psychiatric populations. In contrast, the suicide risk after expression of suicidal ideation in the first year of follow-up was higher in psychiatric patients (risk 1.40%, 95% CI 0.74-2.64) than in non-psychiatric participants (risk 0.23%, 95% CI 0.10-0.54). Past suicide attempt-adjusted risk ratios were not pooled due to large underreporting.

CONCLUSIONS

Assessment of suicidal ideation is of priority in psychiatric patients. Expression of suicidal ideation in psychiatric patients should prompt secondary prevention strategies to reduce their substantial increased risk of suicide.

The Modular Assessment of Risk for Imminent Suicide (MARIS): A proof of concept for a multi-informant tool for evaluation of short-term suicide risk

BACKGROUND

To date, no diagnostic tool has demonstrated clinical value for the assessment of short-term suicide risk among high-risk individuals. To this end we have developed the Modular Assessment of Risk for Imminent Suicide (MARIS), a modular patient and clinician informed risk evaluation instrument. Here we assess its predictive validity for suicidal behavior (SB) in psychiatric patients following discharge from an inpatient unit.

METHODS

The MARIS and a psychological test battery were administered to 136 adult psychiatric patients hospitalized for high risk of suicide. Eighty-six participants had complete data at discharge and 59 (69.8%) were reached for follow-up. Logistic regressions were used to assess the predictive validity of the MARIS for SB over the 4-8weeks following hospital discharge and its incremental predictive validity over standard risk factors.

RESULTS

Patients who exhibited SB in the period between initial assessment and follow-up had significantly higher MARIS scores. ROC analysis indicated good sensitivity and specificity of MARIS in identifying risk (OR=19). Further, MARIS total score significantly improved predictive validity by the standard risk factors when added to a model comprising global depression severity, hopelessness, and lifetime number of suicide attempts, and was the only factor that approached independent significance.

CONCLUSION

The MARIS appears to be a practical and effective tool for detecting short-term suicide risk following hospital discharge, supporting the validity of modular multi-informant approach to suicide risk evaluation. Replication of these findings and further investigation of the applications of such an approach are warranted.

How Parental Reactions Change in Response to Adolescent Suicide Attempt

This study examined parental reactions to adolescents' suicide attempts and the association of reactions with future suicidal self-directed violence. Participants were 81 mothers and 49 fathers of 85 psychiatric inpatient adolescents. Maternal hostility and paternal anger and arguing predicted future suicide attempts. From pre- to post-attempt, mothers reported feeling increased sadness, caring, anxiety, guilt, fear, and being overwhelmed; fathers reported increased sadness, anxiety, and fear. Findings have clinical implications; improving parent-child relationships post-suicide attempt may serve as a protective factor for suicide.