Retrospective study of the recurrence risk of preterm birth in Japan

Does vaginal progesterone prevent recurrent preterm birth in women with a singleton gestation and a history of spontaneous preterm birth? Evidence from a systematic review and meta-analysis

OBJECTIVE

To assess the efficacy and safety of vaginal progesterone to prevent recurrent preterm birth and adverse perinatal outcomes in singleton gestations with a history of spontaneous preterm birth.

DATA SOURCES

MEDLINE, Embase, LILACS, and CINAHL (from their inception to February 28, 2022), Cochrane databases, Google Scholar, bibliographies, and conference proceedings.

STUDY ELIGIBILITY CRITERIA

Randomized controlled trials that compared vaginal progesterone to placebo or no treatment in asymptomatic women with a singleton gestation and a history of spontaneous preterm birth.

METHODS

The primary outcomes were preterm birth <37 and <34 weeks of gestation. The secondary outcomes included adverse maternal and perinatal outcomes. Pooled relative risks with 95% confidence intervals were calculated. We assessed the risk of bias in the included studies, heterogeneity (I2 test), small-study effects, publication bias, and quality of evidence; performed subgroup and sensitivity analyses; and calculated 95% prediction intervals and adjusted relative risks.

RESULTS

Ten studies (2958 women) met the inclusion criteria: 7 with a sample size <150 (small studies) and 3 with a sample size >600 (large studies). Among the 7 small studies, 4 were at high risk of bias, 2 were at some concerns of bias, and only 1 was at low risk of bias. All the large studies were at low risk of bias. Vaginal progesterone significantly decreased the risk of preterm birth <37 weeks (relative risk, 0.64; 95% confidence interval, 0.50-0.81; I2=75%; 95% prediction interval, 0.31-1.32; very low-quality evidence) and <34 weeks (relative risk, 0.62; 95% confidence interval, 0.42-0.92; I2=66%; 95% prediction interval, 0.23-1.68; very low-quality evidence), and the risk of admission to the neonatal intensive care unit (relative risk, 0.53; 95% confidence interval, 0.33-0.85; I2=67%; 95% prediction interval, 0.16-1.79; low-quality evidence). There were no significant differences between the vaginal progesterone and the placebo or no treatment groups in other adverse perinatal and maternal outcomes. Subgroup analyses revealed that vaginal progesterone decreased the risk of preterm birth <37 weeks (relative risk, 0.43; 95% confidence interval, 0.33-0.55; I2=0%) and <34 weeks (relative risk, 0.27; 95% confidence interval, 0.15-0.49; I2=0%) in the small but not in the large studies (relative risk, 0.98; 95% confidence interval, 0.88-1.09; I2=0% for preterm birth <37 weeks; and relative risk, 0.94; 95% confidence interval, 0.78-1.13; I2=0% for preterm birth <34 weeks). Sensitivity analyses restricted to studies at low risk of bias indicated that vaginal progesterone did not reduce the risk of preterm birth <37 weeks (relative risk, 0.96; 95% confidence interval, 0.84-1.09) and <34 weeks (relative risk, 0.90; 95% confidence interval, 0.71-1.15). There was clear evidence of substantial small-study effects in the meta-analyses of preterm birth <37 and <34 weeks of gestation because of funnel plot asymmetry and the marked differences in the pooled relative risks obtained from fixed-effect and random-effects models. The adjustment for small-study effects resulted in a markedly reduced and nonsignificant effect of vaginal progesterone on preterm birth <37 weeks (relative risk, 0.86; 95% confidence interval, 0.68-1.10) and <34 weeks (relative risk, 0.92; 95% confidence interval, 0.60-1.42).

CONCLUSION

There is no convincing evidence supporting the use of vaginal progesterone to prevent recurrent preterm birth or to improve perinatal outcomes in singleton gestations with a history of spontaneous preterm birth.

Recurrent preterm birth: data from the study "Birth in Brazil"

OBJECTIVE

Describe and estimate the rate of recurrent preterm birth in Brazil according to the type of delivery, weighted by associated factors.

METHODS

We obtained data from the national hospital-based study "Birth in Brazil", conducted in 2011 and 2012, from interviews with 23,894 women. Initially, we used the chi-square test to verify the differences between newborns according to previous prematurity and type of recurrent prematurity. Sequentially, we applied the propensity score method to balance the groups according to the following covariates: maternal age, socio-economic status, smoking during pregnancy, parity, previous cesarean section, previous stillbirth or neonatal death, chronic hypertension and chronic diabetes. Finally, we performed multiple logistic regression to estimate the recorrence.

RESULTS

We analyzed 6,701 newborns. The rate of recurrence was 42.0%, considering all women with previous prematurity. Among the recurrent premature births, 62.2% were spontaneous and 37.8% were provider-initiated. After weighting by propensity score, we found that women with prematurity have 3.89 times the chance of having spontaneous recurrent preterm birth (ORaj = 3.89; 95%CI 3.01-5.03) and 3.47 times the chance of having provider-initiated recurrent preterm birth (ORaj = 3.47; 95%CI 2.59-4.66), compared to women who had full-term newborns.

CONCLUSIONS

Previous prematurity showed to be a strong predictor for its recurrence. Thus, expanding and improving the monitoring and management of pregnant women who had occurrence of prematurity strongly influence the reduction of rates and, consequently, the reduction of infant morbidity and mortality risks in the country.

Gestational age as a predictor for subsequent preterm birth in New South Wales, Australia

Background

There is no validated evidence base on predictive ability and absolute risk of preterm birth by gestational age of the previous pregnancy.

Methods

We conducted a retrospective cohort study of mothers who gave birth to their first two children in New South Wales, 1994–2016 (N = 517,558 mothers). For each week of final gestational age of the first birth, we calculated relative and absolute risks of subsequent preterm birth.

Results

For mothers whose first birth had a gestational age of 22 to 30 weeks the absolute risks of clinically significant preterm second birth (before 28, 32, and 34 weeks) were all less than 14%. For all gestational ages of the first child the median gestational ages of the second child were all at least 38 weeks. Sensitivity and positive predictive values were all below 30%.

Conclusion

Previous gestational age alone is a poor predictor of subsequent risk of preterm birth.