Development of a risk prediction nomogram for disposition of acute toxic exposure patients to intensive care unit

Evaluation of the rate and pattern of suicide attempts and deaths by self-poisoning among Egyptians before and during the COVID-19 pandemic

Background

Concerns about increased suicidal attempts, especially by self-poisoning as a consequence of Coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) pandemic have been raised worldwide.

Aim of the study

This study aimed to evaluate the rate and pattern of suicide attempts and deaths by self-poisoning among patients admitted to Tanta University Poisoning Control Center one year before and following COVID-19 pandemic declaration in Egypt. It was conducted on the medical records of 3,200 poisoned patients, from March 2019 to February 2021. Demographic, toxicological data and patients' outcomes were collected.

Results

During the pandemic year, 63.8% of total admitted patients alleged suicidal self-poisoning. Adults significantly decreased from 59% to 52.3%, while adolescents significantly increased from 34.6% to 41.7%. Monthly numbers of admitted suicidal self-poisoned patients significantly decreased during the lockdown but significantly increased from 7% to 26.5%, during the peak of the second wave of the pandemic as well as suicidal deaths (increased from 1.9% to 21.2%). Suicidal self-poisoning in females increased late in the pandemic year and suicidal self-poisoning deaths were significantly reported from rural areas (P = 0.025). The delay time was significantly longer, length of hospital stay was significantly shorter, intensive care unit admission rates and suicidal deaths were significantly increased during the pandemic year (P < 0.001, 0.026, <0.001, <0.001, respectively). Phosphides were the most commonly used poison for committing suicide and suicidal deaths during this year.

Conclusion

Psychological support should be directed to females and adolescents, especially from rural areas in Egypt to help reduce suicidal attempts and deaths by self-poisoning during any future pandemics and lockdowns.

A nomogram proposal for early prediction of intensive care unit admission in patients with acute antipsychotic poisoning

Background

Early identification of antipsychotic poisoned patients who may have a potential risk for intensive care unit (ICU) admission is crucial especially when resources are limited. Nomograms were previously used as a practical tool to predict prognosis and planning the treatment of some diseases including some poisoning conditions. However, they were not previously investigated in antipsychotic poisoning.

Aim

The current study aimed to construct a nomogram to predict the need for ICU admission in acute antipsychotic poisoning. Patients and methods: This 2-year study included 140 patients acutely intoxicated with antipsychotics and admitted at Tanta University Poison Control Centre throughout July 2019 to June 2021. Personal and toxicological data, findings of clinical examination and electrocardiography, as well as, results of laboratory investigations at time of admission were recorded. According to the outcome, patients were divided into ICU-admitted and ICU-not admitted groups.

Results

The results of this study provided a proposed nomogram that included five significant independent predictors for ICU admission in acute antipsychotic intoxications; the presence of seizures (OR: 31132.26[108.97-Inf]), corrected QT interval (OR: 1.04[1.01-1.09]), mean arterial blood pressure (OR: 0.83[0.70-0.92]), oxygen saturation (OR: 0.62[0.40 to 0.83)], and Glasgow Coma Scale (OR: 0.25 [0.06-0.56]).

Conclusion

It could be concluded that the developed nomogram is a promising tool for easy and rapid decision making to predict the need for ICU admission in acute antipsychotic poisoning.

Development and validation of a risk prediction nomogram for serious arrhythmias in acute digoxin toxicity among pediatrics: A multicenter study

Digoxin is a cardiac glycoside obtained from the leaves of the foxglove plant, Digitalis lanata. Several studies have described the safety of digoxin including various life-threatening events, notably cardiac arrhythmias. Early identification of high-risk patients and subsequent initiation of the utmost medical care are associated with a better prognosis. The assessment of serum digoxin levels, which is not always convenient, is the only tool used to evaluate the severity of digoxin exposure. However, the feasibility of this tool, particularly in resource-restricted countries, remains unclear. Therefore, the current study aimed to establish and validate a feasible alternative tool, a bedside nomogram, to identify pediatric patients diagnosed with acute digoxin intoxication who are at risk of developing serious arrhythmias. This was a two-phase, multicenter, retrospective study. The prevalence of serious arrhythmias was approximately 17%. Patients diagnosed with serious arrhythmias showed significantly higher serum digoxin, random blood glucose, and potassium levels but lower sodium, magnesium, and hemoglobin levels. Serious arrhythmias were associated with significantly lower P-R intervals, shorter QTc intervals, and more frequent digoxin effects (p < 0.05). The proposed nomogram showed that combining age and initial random blood glucose, sodium, and potassium levels could predict the future incidence of serious arrhythmia with an accuracy of 96.2% (sensitivity = 94.4%, specificity = 96.5%), an area under the curve (AUC) of 0.977, and p < 0.001. Validation of the proposed nomogram yielded an AUC for the nomogram probability of approximately 81%, and the AUC for the predicted probability using the developed model was 98.3%, indicating that both the validated model and the developed nomogram were significant predictors of serious arrhythmia. The utility of using the four-factor nomogram to determine the risk of serious arrhythmia in children exposed to an overdose of digoxin is comparable, if not superior, to the serum digoxin level.

Evaluation of various scoring systems as predictors of the need for intensive care unit admission and other adverse outcomes among patients with acute clozapine poisoning

Acute clozapine poisoning (ACP) is frequently reported worldwide. We evaluated the efficacy of the Poison Severity Score (PSS), Acute Physiology and Chronic Health Evaluation II (APACHE II) score, Rapid Emergency Medicine Score (REMS), and Modified Early Warning Score (MEWS) as predictors for intensive care unit (ICU) admission, mechanical ventilation (MV), mortality, and length of hospital stay in patients with ACP. A retrospective cohort study was conducted using records of patients diagnosed with ACP from January 2017 to June 2022 and admitted to an Egyptian poison control center. Analyzing 156 records showed that all assessed scores were significant predictors of the studied outcomes. The PSS and APACHE II score showed the highest area under the curve (AUC) as ICU admission predictors with insignificant variations. The APACHE II score showed the best discriminatory power in predicting MV and mortality. Nevertheless, MEWS exhibited the highest odds ratio (OR) as an ICU predictor (OR = 2.39, and 95% confidence interval = 1.86-3.27) and as a mortality predictor (OR = 1.98, and 95% confidence interval = 1.16-4.41). REMS and MEWS were better predictors of length of hospital stay compared with the APACHE II score. The simpler, lab-independent nature and the comparable discrimination but higher odds ratio of MEWS compared with APACHE II score justify MEWS' superior utility as an outcome predictor in ACP. We recommend using either the APACHE II score or MEWS, depending on the availability of laboratory investigations, resources, and the case's urgency. Otherwise, the MEWS is a substantially feasible, economical, and bedside alternative outcome predictor in ACP.

Cardioprotective role of the coenzyme Q10 and coconut oil in acute aluminum phosphide poisoning: a randomized controlled clinical trial

Aluminum phosphide (ALP)-induced cardiotoxicity is a major cause of high mortality rates. As there is no specific antidote, restoring cardiac hemodynamics is the cornerstone for saving patients. Based on oxidative stress theory in acute ALP poisoning, we examined the cardioprotective role of coconut oil and Coenzyme Q10 (COQ10) in ALP poisoning, focusing on their antioxidant capacity. This study was a randomized, controlled, single-blind, phase II clinical trial conducted at Tanta Poison Control Center over 1 year. Eighty-four ALP poisoned patients received supportive treatment and were randomly allocated to three equal groups. Gastric lavage was performed using sodium bicarbonate 8.4% with saline in group I. Alternatively, group II received 50 ml coconut oil, and group III initially received 600 mg CoQ10 dissolved in 50 ml coconut oil; and repeated 12 hours later. In addition to patient characteristics, clinical, laboratory, electrocardiography (ECG), and total antioxidant capacity (TAC) data were recorded and repeated 12 hours later. Patient outcomes were evaluated. There was no significant difference among groups considering patient characteristics, initial cardiotoxicity severity, vital, laboratory data, ECG changes, and TAC. However, 12 hours post-admissions, group III was significantly improved in all clinical, laboratory, and ECG parameters than comparable groups. Significant correlations were observed between elevated TAC in groups II and III with hemodynamic, serum troponin, and ECG variables. Accordingly, the need for intubation, mechanical ventilation, and the total vasopressor dose was significantly decreased in group III compared with other groups. Therefore, coconut oil and COQ10 are promising cardioprotective adjuvant therapy ameliorating the ALP-induced cardiotoxicity.

Independent validation of the Tanta University Risk Model for intensive care requirement in acutely poisoned adults

OBJECTIVE

To independently validate the predictive value of the Tanta University Risk Model for intensive care requirement in unselected poisoned patients.

METHOD

Retrospective chart review of 293 poisoned patients. The Tanta University Risk Model was calculated as follows: Tanta University Risk Model = -1.966*Glasgow Coma Scale - 0.329*oxygen saturation - 0.212*diastolic blood pressure + 0.27*respiratory rate - 0.33*standard bicarbonate. It was then compared to a composite endpoint indicating an intensive care unit requirement (death in hospital, vasopressors, need for intubation).

RESULTS

Nineteen of 293 patients had a complicated clinical course as defined by meeting the primary endpoint definition. Receiver operating characteristic analysis revealed the area under the curve to be 0.79 (95% confidence interval 0.73-0.83). A positive Tanta University Risk Model was defined >-73.46. Fifteen out of 84 patients with a positive Tanta University Risk Model had a complicated course, while four of 209 patients with a negative Tanta University risk model had a complicated course (P<0.0001, Fisher's exact test). The negative predictive value of the Tanta University Risk Model was 0.98 (95% confidence interval 0.95-0.99), the sensitivity was 0.79 and that specificity was 0.75.

CONCLUSION

Poisoned patients with a negative Tanta University Risk Model score are unlikely to need an intensive care unit level of care.

Accuracy of Rapid Emergency Medicine Score and Sequential Organ Failure Assessment Score in predicting acute paraphenylenediamine poisoning adverse outcomes

Paraphenylenediamine (PPD) is a commonly used xenobiotic in hair dying, causing deleterious outcomes in acute poisoning. Although many epidemiological studies and case reports explained their clinical presentations and fatal consequences, no studies have evaluated the early determinants of adverse outcomes. Therefore, the present study aimed to assess the initial predictors of acute PPD poisoning adverse outcomes, focusing on the discriminatory accuracy of the Rapid Emergency Medicine Score (REMS) and Sequential Organ Failure Assessment (SOFA) score. A retrospective cohort study included all acute PPD-poisoned patients admitted to three Egyptian emergency hospitals from January 2020 to January 2022. Data was gathered on admission, including demographics, toxicological, clinical, scoring systems, and laboratory investigations. Patients were categorized according to their outcomes (mortality and complications). Ninety-seven patients with acute PPD poisoning were included, with a median age of 23 years, female predominance (60.8%), and suicidal intention (95.9%). Out of all patients, 25.77% died, and 43.29% had complicated outcomes. Respiratory failure was the primary cause of fatalities (10.30%), while acute renal failure (38.14%) was a chief cause of complications. The delay time till hospitalization, abnormal electrocardiogram, initial creatine phosphokinase, bicarbonate level, REMS, and SOFA scores were the significant determinants for adverse outcomes. The REMS exhibited the highest odds ratio (OR = 1.91 [95% confidence interval (CI): 1.41-2.60], p < 0.001) and had the best discriminatory power with the area under the curve (AUC) = 0.918 and overall accuracy of 91.8% in predicting mortality. However, the SOFA score had the highest odds ratio (OR = 4.97 [95% CI: 1.16-21.21], p = 0.001) and only yielded a significant prediction for complicated sequels with AUC = 0.913 and overall accuracy of 84.7%. The REMS is a simple clinical score that accurately predicts mortality, whereas the SOFA score is more practicable for anticipating complications in acute PPD-poisoned patients.

Development and validation of a novel poisoning agitation-sedation score for predicting the need for endotracheal intubation and mechanical ventilation in acutely poisoned patients with disturbed consciousness

BACKGROUND

Accurate assessment of disturbed consciousness level (DCL) is crucial for predicting acutely poisoned patients' outcomes.

AIM

Development of a novel Poisoning Agitation-Sedation Score (PASS) to predict the need for endotracheal intubation (ETI) and mechanical ventilation (MV) in acutely poisoned patients with DCL. Validation of the proposed score on a new set of acutely poisoned patients with DCL.

METHODS

This study was conducted on 187 acutely poisoned patients with DCL admitted to hospital from June 2020 to November 2021 (Derivation cohort). Patients' demographics, toxicological data, neurological examination, calculation of the Glasgow Coma Scale (GCS), Full Outline of Unresponsiveness (FOUR) score, Richmond Agitation-Sedation Scale (RASS), and outcomes were gathered for developing a new score. The proposed score was externally validated on 100 acutely poisoned patients with DCL (Validation cohort).

RESULTS

The PASS assessing sedation consists of FOUR (reflexes and respiration) and GCS (motor) and provides a significantly excellent predictive power (AUC = 0.975) at a cutoff ≤9 with 100% sensitivity and 92.11% specificity for predicting the need for ETI and MV in sedated patients. Additionally, adding RASS (agitation) to the previous model exhibits significantly good predictive power (AUC = 0.893), 90.32% sensitivity, and 73.68% specificity at a cutoff ≤14 for predicting the need for ETI and MV in disturbed consciousness patients with agitation.

CONCLUSION

The proposed PASS could be an excellent, valid and feasible tool to predict the need for ETI and MV in acutely poisoned disturbed consciousness patients with or without agitation.

Development and validation of a risk prediction nomogram for disposition of acute clozapine intoxicated patients to intensive care unit

BACKGROUND

Clozapine is an atypical antipsychotic drug used for the treatment of refractory schizophrenia. It is reported as the most toxic in its class. Using serum clozapine level as a severity indicator is doubtful and unfeasible, particularly in low resourced countries.

METHODS

This is an extended two-phase retrospective study that utilized medical records of patients diagnosed with acute clozapine intoxication and admitted to Tanta University Poison Control Center, Egypt during the past 6 years. Two hundred and eight medical records were used to establish and validate a nomogram for predicting the need for intensive care unit (ICU) admission in acute clozapine intoxicated patients.

RESULTS

A reliable simple bedside nomogram was developed and proved its significant ability to predict the need for ICU admission, with an area under the curve (AUC) of 83.9% and 80.8% accuracy. It encompassed the age of admitted patients (AUC = 64.8%, p = .003), respiratory rate (AUC = 74.7%, p < .001), O₂ saturation (AUC = 71.7%, p < .001), and random blood glucose level upon admission (AUC = 70.5%, p < .001). External validation of the proposed nomogram showed a high AUC (99.2%) with an overall accuracy of 96.2%.

CONCLUSION

There is a need to develop a reliable objective tool predicting the severity and need for ICU admission in acute clozapine intoxication. The proposed nomogram is a substantially valuable tool to estimate ICU admission probabilities among patients with acute clozapine intoxication and will help clinical toxicologists make rapid decisions for ICU admission, especially in countries with low resources.

Prognostic factors in acute poisoning with central nervous system xenobiotics: development of a nomogram predicting risk of intensive care unit admission

Background

Acute intoxication with central nervous system (CNS) xenobiotics is an increasing global problem. Predicting the prognosis of acute toxic exposure among patients can significantly alter the morbidity and mortality. The present study outlined the early risk predictors among patients diagnosed with acute exposure to CNS xenobiotics and endorsed bedside nomograms for identifying patients requiring intensive care unit (ICU) admission and those at risk of poor prognosis or death.

Methods

This study is a 6-year retrospective cohort study conducted among patients presented with acute exposure to CNS xenobiotics.

Results

A total of 143 patients' records were included, where (36.4%) were admitted to the ICU, and a significant proportion of which was due to exposure to alcohols, sedative hypnotics, psychotropic, and antidepressants (P = 0.021). ICU admission was associated with significantly lower blood pressure, pH, and HCO₃ levels and higher random blood glucose (RBG), serum urea, and creatinine levels (P < 0.05). The study findings indicate that the decision of ICU admission could be determined using a nomogram combining the initial HCO₃ level, blood pH, modified PSS, and GCS. HCO₃ level < 17.1 mEq/L, pH < 7.2, moderate-to-severe PSS, and GCS < 11 significantly predicted ICU admission. Moreover, high PSS and low HCO₃ levels significantly predicted poor prognosis and mortality. Hyperglycemia was another significant predictor of mortality. Combining initial GCS, RBG level, and HCO₃ is substantially helpful in predicting the need for ICU admission in acute alcohol intoxication.

Conclusion

The proposed nomograms yielded significant straightforward and reliable prognostic outcomes predictors in acute exposure to CNS xenobiotics.

Characteristics of suicidal poisoned patients admitted to tertiary care center during COVID-19 pandemic

Background

Suicidal poisoning is a major concern during the COVID-19 pandemic that has several physical and mental hazards. This study aimed to evaluate the characteristics of suicidal poisoned patients admitted to a tertiary poison control center during the pandemic lockdown and assess COVID-related knowledge and attitude among those patients to identify the high-risk group for suicide. This cross-sectional study was conducted on acutely poisoned patients admitted to Tanta University Poison Control Center from June to December 2020. Upon admission, socio-demographic data, causative poisoning agents, COVID-related knowledge and attitude, Hamilton Anxiety Rating Scale (HAM-A), and Hamilton Depression Rating Scale (HAM-D) were collected from all participants.

Results

A total of 254 poisoned patients were categorized into suicidal (85.04%) and accidental (14.96%) poisoning groups. The former was caused mainly by phosphides and was significantly associated with a history of using psychotropic medications and high HAM-A and HAM-D results. Logistic regression analysis showed that a history of psychiatric illness, low attitude scores, and high HAM-D scores were significant risk factors for suicidal poisoning.

Conclusions

Considerable number of suicidal poisoned patients had moderate-to-severe depressive symptoms, highlighting the importance of providing specialized psychiatric services in poisoning centers, particularly among vulnerable populations, to prevent the overwhelming repeated suicidal attempts.

Comparison between various scoring systems in predicting the need for intensive care unit admission of acute pesticide-poisoned patients

The decision of intensive care unit (ICU) admission in acute pesticide poisoning is often challenging, especially in developing countries with limited resources. This study was conducted to compare the efficacy of the Acute Physiology and Chronic Health Evaluation II (APACHE II), Modified Early Warning Score (MEWS), and Poisoning Severity Score (PSS) in predicting ICU admission and mortality of acute pesticide-poisoned patients. This prospective cohort study included all patients admitted to Tanta University Poison Control Center with acute pesticide poisoning from the start of March 2018 to the end of March 2019. Patient data, including demographic and toxicological data, clinical examination, laboratory investigation, and score values, were collected on admission. Out of 337 acute pesticide-poisoned patients, 30.5% were admitted to the ICU, including those poisoned with aluminum phosphide (ALP) (81.5%) and organophosphates (OP) (18.5%). Most non-survivors (86.6%) were ALP poisoning. The PSS had the best discriminatory power in predicting ICU admission and mortality, followed by APACHE II and MEWS. However, no significant difference in predicting ICU admission of OP-poisoned patients was detected between the scores. Additionally, no significant difference in mortality prediction of ALP-poisoned patients was found between the PSS and APACHE II. The PSS, APACHE II, and MEWS are good discriminators for outcome prediction of acute pesticide poisoning on admission. Although the PSS showed the best performance, MEWS was simpler, more feasible, and practicable in predicting ICU admission of OP-poisoned patients. Moreover, the APACHE II has better sensitivity for mortality prediction of ALP-poisoned patients.

Factors associated with prolonged intensive care stay among self-poisoned patients

CONTEXT

Since recovery or death is generally observed within a few days after intensive care unit (ICU) admission of self-poisoned patients in the developed countries, reasons for the prolonged ICU stay are of interest as they have been poorly investigated. We aimed to identify the characteristics, risk factors, outcome, and predictors of death in self-poisoned patients requiring prolonged ICU management.

METHODS

We conducted an eight-year single-center cohort study including all self-poisoned patients who stayed at least seven days in the ICU. Patients admitted with drug adverse events and chronic overdoses were excluded. Using multivariate analyses, we investigated risk factors for prolonged ICU stay in comparison with a group of similar size of self-poisoned patients with <7day-ICU stay and studied risk factors for death.

RESULTS

Among 2,963 poisoned patients admitted in the ICU during the study period, the number who stayed beyond seven days was small (398/2,963, 13.1%), including 239 self-poisoned patients (125 F/114M; age, 51 years [38-65] (median [25th-75th percentiles]); SAPSII, 56 [43-69]). Involved toxicants included psychotropic drugs (59%), cardiotoxicants (31%), opioids (15%) and street drugs (13%). When compared with patients who stayed <7days in the ICU, acute kidney injury (odds ratio (OR), 3.15; 95% confidence interval (1.36-7.39); p = .008), multiorgan failure (OR, 8.06 (3.43-19.9); p < .001), aspiration pneumonia (OR, 8.48 (4.28-17.3); p < .001), and delayed awakening related to the persistent toxicant effects, hypoxic encephalopathy and/or oversedation (OR, 8.64 (2.58-40.7); p = .002) were independently associated with prolonged ICU stay. In-hospital mortality rate was 9%. Cardiac arrest occurring in the prehospital setting and during the first hours of ICU management (OR, 27.31 (8.99-158.76); p < .001) and delayed awakening (OR, 14.94 (6.27-117.44); p < .001) were independently associated with increased risk of death, whereas exposure to psychotropic drugs (OR, 0.08 (0.02-0.36); p = .002) was independently associated with reduced risk of death.

CONCLUSION

Self-poisoned patients with prolonged ICU stay of ≥7days are characterized by concerning high rates of morbidities and poisoning-attributed complications. Acute kidney injury, multiorgan failure, aspiration pneumonia, and delayed awakening are associated with ICU stay prolongation. Cardiac arrest occurrence and delayed awakening are predictive of death. Further studies should focus on the role of early goal-directed therapy and patient-targeted sedation in reducing ICU length of stay among self-poisoned patients.