Genomic vulnerability to rapid climate warming in a tree species with a long generation time

Translating genomic advances into biodiversity conservation

A key action of the new Global Biodiversity Framework is the maintenance of genetic diversity in all species to safeguard their adaptive potential. To achieve this goal, a translational mindset, which aims to convert results of basic research into direct practical benefits, needs to be applied to biodiversity conservation. Despite much discussion on the value of genomics to conservation, a disconnect between those generating genomic resources and those applying it to biodiversity management remains. As global efforts to generate reference genomes for non-model species increase, investment into practical biodiversity applications is critically important. Applications such as understanding population and multispecies diversity and longitudinal monitoring need support alongside education for policymakers on integrating the data into evidence-based decisions. Without such investment, the opportunity to revolutionize global biodiversity conservation using genomics will not be fully realized.

How useful are genomic data for predicting maladaptation to future climate?

Methods using genomic information to forecast potential population maladaptation to climate change or new environments are becoming increasingly common, yet the lack of model validation poses serious hurdles toward their incorporation into management and policy. Here, we compare the validation of maladaptation estimates derived from two methods-Gradient Forests (GFoffset) and the risk of non-adaptedness (RONA)-using exome capture pool-seq data from 35 to 39 populations across three conifer taxa: two Douglas-fir varieties and jack pine. We evaluate sensitivity of these algorithms to the source of input loci (markers selected from genotype-environment associations [GEA] or those selected at random). We validate these methods against 2- and 52-year growth and mortality measured in independent transplant experiments. Overall, we find that both methods often better predict transplant performance than climatic or geographic distances. We also find that GFoffset and RONA models are surprisingly not improved using GEA candidates. Even with promising validation results, variation in model projections to future climates makes it difficult to identify the most maladapted populations using either method. Our work advances understanding of the sensitivity and applicability of these approaches, and we discuss recommendations for their future use.

Genomic evidence for climate-linked diversity loss and increased vulnerability of wild barley spanning 28 years of climate warming

The information on how plant populations respond genetically to climate warming is scarce. Here, landscape genomic and machine learning approaches were integrated to assess genetic response of 10 wild barley (Hordeum vulgare ssp. spontaneum; WB) populations in the past and future, using whole genomic sequencing (WGS) data. The WB populations were sampled in 1980 and again in 2008. Phylogeny of accessions was roughly in conformity with sampling sites, which accompanied by admixture/introgressions. The 28-y climate warming resulted in decreased genetic diversity, increased selection pressure, and an increase in deleterious single nucleotide polymorphism (dSNP) numbers, heterozygous deleterious and total deleterious burdens for WB. Genome-environment associations identified some candidate genes belonging to peroxidase family (HORVU2Hr1G057450, HORVU4Hr1G052060 and HORVU4Hr1G057210) and heat shock protein 70 family (HORVU2Hr1G112630). The gene HORVU2Hr1G120170 identified by selective sweep analysis was under strong selection during the climate warming of the 28-y, and its derived haplotypes were fixed by WB when faced with the 28-y increasingly severe environment. Temperature variables were found to be more important than precipitation variables in influencing genomic variation, with an eco-physiological index gdd5 (growing degree-days at the baseline threshold temperature of 5 °C) being the most important determinant. Gradient forest modelling revealed higher predicted genomic vulnerability in Sede Boqer under future climate scenarios at 2041-2070 and 2071-2100. Additionally, estimates of effective population size (Ne) tracing back to 250 years indicated a forward decline in all populations over time. Our assessment about past genetic response and future vulnerability of WB under climate warming is crucial for informing conservation efforts for wild cereals and rational use strategies.

Populus cathayana genome and population resequencing provide insights into its evolution and adaptation

Populus cathayana Rehder, an indigenous poplar species of ecological and economic importance, is widely distributed in a high-elevation range from southwest to northeast China. Further development of this species as a sustainable poplar resource has been hindered by a lack of genome information the at the population level. Here, we produced a chromosome-level genome assembly of P. cathayana, covering 406.55 Mb (scaffold N50 = 20.86 Mb) and consisting of 19 chromosomes, with 35 977 protein-coding genes. Subsequently, we made a genomic variation atlas of 438 wild individuals covering 36 representative geographic areas of P. cathayana, which were divided into four geographic groups. It was inferred that the Northwest China regions served as the genetic diversity centers and a population bottleneck happened during the history of P. cathayana. By genotype-environment association analysis, 947 environment-association loci were significantly associated with temperature, solar radiation, precipitation, and altitude variables. We identified local adaptation genes involved in DNA repair and UV radiation response, among which UVR8, HY5, and CUL4 had key roles in high-altitude adaptation of P. cathayana. Predictions of adaptive potential under future climate conditions showed that P. cathayana populations in areas with drastic climate change were anticipated to have greater maladaptation risk. These results provide comprehensive insights for understanding wild poplar evolution and optimizing adaptive potential in molecular breeding.

Geographic distribution and impacts of climate change on the suitable habitats of Rhamnus utilis Decne in China

BACKGROUND

Rhamnus utilis Decne (Rhamnaceae) is an ecologically and economically important tree species. The growing market demands and recent anthropogenic impacts to R. utilis forests has negatively impacted its populations severely. However, little is known about the potential distribution of this species and environmental factors that affect habitat suitability for this species. By using 219 occurrence records along with 51 environmental factors, present and future suitable habitats were estimated for R. utilis using Maxent modeling; the important environmental factors affecting its distribution were analyzed.

RESULTS

January water vapor pressure, normalized difference vegetation index, mean diurnal range, and precipitation of the warmest quarter represented the critical factors explaining the environmental requirements of R. utilis. The potential habitat of R. utilis included most provinces from central to southeast China. Under the climate change scenario SSP 245, Maxent predicted a cumulative loss of ca. 0.73 × 105 km2 in suitable habitat for R. utilis during 2041-2060 while an increase of ca. 0.65 × 105 km2 occurred during 2081-2100. Furthermore, under this climate change scenario, the suitable habitat will geographically expand to higher elevations.

CONCLUSIONS

The findings of our study provide a foundation for targeted conservation efforts and inform future research on R. utilis. By considering the identified environmental factors and anticipating the potential impacts of climate change, conservation strategies can be developed to preserve and restore suitable habitats for R. utilis. Protecting this species is not only crucial for maintaining biodiversity but also for sustaining the economic benefits associated with its ecological services.

Genomic signals of local adaptation in Picea crassifolia

BACKGROUND

Global climate change poses a grave threat to biodiversity and underscores the importance of identifying the genes and corresponding environmental factors involved in the adaptation of tree species for the purposes of conservation and forestry. This holds particularly true for spruce species, given their pivotal role as key constituents of the montane, boreal, and sub-alpine forests in the Northern Hemisphere.

RESULTS

Here, we used transcriptomes, species occurrence records, and environmental data to investigate the spatial genetic distribution of and the climate-associated genetic variation in Picea crassifolia. Our comprehensive analysis employing ADMIXTURE, principal component analysis (PCA) and phylogenetic methodologies showed that the species has a complex population structure with obvious differentiation among populations in different regions. Concurrently, our investigations into isolation by distance (IBD), isolation by environment (IBE), and niche differentiation among populations collectively suggests that local adaptations are driven by environmental heterogeneity. By integrating population genomics and environmental data using redundancy analysis (RDA), we identified a set of climate-associated single-nucleotide polymorphisms (SNPs) and showed that environmental isolation had a more significant impact than geographic isolation in promoting genetic differentiation. We also found that the candidate genes associated with altitude, temperature seasonality (Bio4) and precipitation in the wettest month (Bio13) may be useful for forest tree breeding.

CONCLUSIONS

Our findings deepen our understanding of how species respond to climate change and highlight the importance of integrating genomic and environmental data in untangling local adaptations.

Adaptive divergence and genetic vulnerability of relict species under climate change: a case study of Pterocarya macroptera

BACKGROUND AND AIMS

Understanding adaptive genetic variation and whether it can keep pace with predicted future climate change is critical in assessing the genetic vulnerability of species and developing conservation management strategies. The lack of information on adaptive genetic variation in relict species carrying abundant genetic resources hinders the assessment of genetic vulnerability. Using a landscape genomics approach, this study aimed to determine how adaptive genetic variation shapes population divergence and to predict the adaptive potential of Pterocarya macroptera (a vulnerable relict species in China) under future climate scenarios.

METHODS

We applied restriction site-associated DNA sequencing (RAD-seq) to obtain 8244 single-nucleotide polymorphisms (SNPs) from 160 individuals across 28 populations. We examined the pattern of genetic diversity and divergence, and then identified outliers by genetic differentiation (FST) and genotype-environment association (GEA) methods. We further dissected the effect of geographical/environmental gradients on genetic variation. Finally, we predicted genetic vulnerability and adaptive risk under future climate scenarios.

KEY RESULTS

We identified three genetic lineages within P. macroptera: the Qinling-Daba-Tianmu Mountains (QDT), Western Sichuan (WS) and Northwest Yunnan (NWY) lineages, which showed significant signals of isolation by distance (IBD) and isolation by environment (IBE). IBD and IBE explained 3.7-5.7 and 8.6-12.8 % of the genetic structure, respectively. The identified GEA SNP-related genes were involved in chemical defence and gene regulation and may exhibit higher genetic variation to adapt to the environment. Gradient forest analysis revealed that the genetic variation was mainly shaped by temperature-related variables, indicating its adaptation to local thermal environments. A limited adaptive potential was suggested by the high levels of genetic vulnerability in marginal populations.

CONCLUSIONS

Environmental gradient mainly shaped the population differentiation of P. macroptera. Marginal populations may be at high risk of extinction, and thus proactive management measures, such as assisted gene flow, are required to ensure the survival of these populations.

Warming appears as the main risk of non-adaptedness for western Mediterranean relict fir forests under expected climate change scenarios

Circum-Mediterranean firs are considered among the most drought-sensitive species to climate change. Understanding the genetic basis of trees' adaptive capacity and intra-specific variability to drought avoidance is mandatory to define conservation measures, thus potentially preventing their extinction. We focus here on Abies pinsapo and Abies marocana, both relict tree species, endemic from south Spain and north Morocco, respectively. A total of 607 samples were collected from eight nuclei: six from Spanish fir and two from Moroccan fir. A genotyping by sequencing technique called double digestion restriction site-associated DNA sequencing (ddRAD-seq) was performed to obtain a genetic matrix based on single-nucleotide polymorphisms (SNPs). This matrix was utilized to study the genetic structure of A. pinsapo populations and to carry out selection signature studies. In order to understand how Spanish fir and Moroccan fir cope with climate change, genotype-environment associations (GEAs) were identified. Further, the vulnerability of these species to climate variations was estimated by the risk of non-adaptedness (RONA). The filtering of the de novo assembly of A. pinsapo provided 3,982 SNPs from 504 out of 509 trees sequenced. Principal component analysis (PCA) genetically separated Grazalema from the rest of the Spanish populations. However, FST values showed significant differences among the sampling points. We found 51 loci potentially under selection. Homolog sequences were found for some proteins related to abiotic stress response, such as dehydration-responsive element binding transcription factor, regulation of abscisic acid signaling, and methylation pathway. A total of 15 associations with 11 different loci were observed in the GEA studies, with the maximum temperature of the warmest month being the variable with the highest number of associated loci. This temperature sensitivity was also supported by the risk of non-adaptedness, which yielded a higher risk for both A. pinsapo and A. marocana under the high emission scenario (Representative Concentration Pathway (RCP) 8.5). This study sheds light on the response to climate change of these two endemic species.

Re-thinking the environment in landscape genomics

Detecting the extrinsic selective pressures shaping genomic variation is critical for a better understanding of adaptation and for forecasting evolutionary responses of natural populations to changing environmental conditions. With increasing availability of geo-referenced environmental data, landscape genomics provides unprecedented insights into how genomic variation and underlying gene functions affect traits potentially under selection. Yet, the robustness of genotype-environment associations used in landscape genomics remains tempered due to various limitations, including the characteristics of environmental data used, sampling designs employed, and statistical frameworks applied. Here, we argue that using complementary or new environmental data sources and well-informed sampling designs may help improve the detection of selective pressures underlying patterns of local adaptation in various organisms and environments.

Genomic signals of local adaptation and hybridization in Asian white birch

Disentangling the numerous processes that affect patterns of genome-wide diversity in widespread tree species has important implications for taxonomy, conservation, and forestry. Here, we investigate the population genomic structure of Asian white birch (Betula platyphylla) in China and seek to explain it in terms of hybridization, demography and adaptation. We generate whole genome sequence data from 83 individuals across the species range in China. Combining this with an existing data set for 79 European and Russian white birches, we show a clear distinction between B. pendula and B. platyphylla, which have sometimes been lumped taxonomically. Genomic diversity of B. platyphylla in north-western China and Central Russia is affected greatly by hybridization with B. pendula. Excluding these hybridized populations, B. platyphylla in China has a linear distribution from north-eastern to south-western China, along the edge of the inland mountainous region. Within this distribution, three genetic clusters are found, which we model as long diverged with subsequent episodes of gene flow. Patterns of covariation between allele frequencies and environmental variables in B. platyphylla suggest the role of natural selection in the distribution of diversity at 7609 SNPs of which 3767 were significantly differentiated among the genetic clusters. The putative adaptive SNPs are distributed throughout the genome and span 1633 genic regions. Of these genic regions, 87 were previously identified as candidates for selective sweeps in Eurasian B. pendula. We use the 7609 environmentally associated SNPs to estimate the risk of nonadaptedness for each sequenced B. platyphylla individual under a scenario of future climate change, highlighting areas where populations may be under future threat from rising temperatures.

Tree-ring anatomy of Pinus cembra trees opens new avenues for climate reconstructions in the European Alps

Tree rings form the backbone of high-resolution palaeoclimatology and represent one of the most frequently used proxy to reconstruct climate variability of the Common Era. In the European Alps, reconstructions were often based on tree-ring width (TRW) and maximum latewood density (MXD) series, with a focus on European larch. By contrast, only a very limited number of dendroclimatic studies exists for long-lived, multi-centennial Pinus cembra, despite the widespread occurrence of the species at treeline sites across the European Alps. This lack of reconstructions can be ascribed to the difficulties encountered in past studies in extracting a robust climate signal from TRW and MXD chronologies. In this study, we tested various wood anatomical parameters from P. cembra as proxies for the reconstruction of past air temperatures. To this end, we measured anatomical cell parameters and TRW of old-growth trees from the God da Tamangur forest stand, known for being the highest pure, and continuous P. cembra forest in Europe. We demonstrate that several wood anatomical parameters allow robust reconstruction of past temperature variability at annual to multidecadal timescales. Best results are obtained with maximum latewood radial cell wall thickness (CWTrad) measured at 40 μm radial band width. Over the 1920-2017 period, the CWTrad chronology explains 62 % and >80 % of interannual and decadal variability of air temperatures during a time window corresponding roughly with the growing season. These values exceed those found in past work on P. cembra and even exceed the values reported for MXD chronologies built with L. decidua and hitherto considered the gold standard for dendroclimatic reconstructions in the European Alps. The wood anatomical analysis of P. cembra records therefore unveils a dormant potential and opens new avenues for a species that has been considered unsuitable for climate reconstructions so far.

Genomic vulnerability to climate change in Quercus acutissima, a dominant tree species in East Asian deciduous forests

Understanding the evolutionary processes that shape the landscape of genetic variation and influence the response of species to future climate change is critical for biodiversity conservation. Here, we sampled 27 populations across the distribution range of a dominant forest tree, Quercus acutissima, in East Asia, and applied genome-wide analyses to track the evolutionary history and predict the fate of populations under future climate. We found two genetic groups (East and West) in Q. acutissima that diverged during Pliocene. We also found a heterogeneous landscape of genomic variation in this species, which may have been shaped by population demography and linked selections. Using genotype-environment association analyses, we identified climate-associated SNPs in a diverse set of genes and functional categories, indicating a model of polygenic adaptation in Q. acutissima. We further estimated three genetic offset metrics to quantify genomic vulnerability of this species to climate change due to the complex interplay between local adaptation and migration. We found that marginal populations are under higher risk of local extinction because of future climate change, and may not be able to track suitable habitats to maintain the gene-environment relationships observed under the current climate. We also detected higher reverse genetic offsets in northern China, indicating that genetic variation currently present in the whole range of Q. acutissima may not adapt to future climate conditions in this area. Overall, this study illustrates how evolutionary processes have shaped the landscape of genomic variation, and provides a comprehensive genome-wide view of climate maladaptation in Q. acutissima.

Cryptic population structure at the northern range margin of the service tree Sorbus domestica

Climate change has aroused interest in planting warm- and drought-adapted trees in managed forests and urban areas. An option is to focus on tree species that occur naturally, but have centers of distribution in warmer and drier areas. However, in order to protect the species pool of genetic diversity, efforts of planting and promotion should be informed by knowledge on the local genetic diversity. Here, we studied the macro- and micro-scale population genetic structure of the rare European fruit tree Sorbus domestica at its northern range margin, in western Switzerland. New microsatellite data were combined with published data from across the European distribution of the species. Analyses revealed the presence of mainly one of two species-wide ancestral clusters, i.e., the western European cluster, with evidence that it consists of two cryptic sub-clusters. Average pairwise F _ST of 0.118 was low across the range, and only allelic richness was reduced in the northern margin compared to more southern and southeastern areas of Europe. Based on our finding of considerable genetic diversity of the species in western and northern Switzerland, we suggest that a national propagation program should focus on collecting seeds from natural, high-density tree stands and propagate locally. More generally, our study shows that rare tree species in marginal areas of their distributions do not necessarily have low genetic diversity or heightened levels of inbreeding, and in those cases probably need no assisted migration in efforts to propagate them.

Teasing apart the joint effect of demography and natural selection in the birth of a contact zone

Vast population movements induced by recurrent climatic cycles have shaped the genetic structure of plant species. During glacial periods species were confined to low-latitude refugia from which they recolonized higher latitudes as the climate improved. This multipronged recolonization led to many lineages that later met and formed large contact zones. We utilize genomic data from 5000 Picea abies trees to test for the presence of natural selection during recolonization and establishment of a contact zone in Scandinavia. Scandinavian P. abies is today made up of a southern genetic cluster originating from the Baltics, and a northern one originating from Northern Russia. The contact zone delineating them closely matches the limit between two major climatic regions. We show that natural selection contributed to its establishment and maintenance. First, an isolation-with-migration model with genome-wide linked selection fits the data better than a purely neutral one. Second, many loci show signatures of selection or are associated with environmental variables. These loci, regrouped in clusters on chromosomes, are often related to phenology. Altogether, our results illustrate how climatic cycles, recolonization and selection can establish strong local adaptation along contact zones and affect the genetic architecture of adaptive traits.

Genomic insights into local adaptation and future climate-induced vulnerability of a keystone forest tree in East Asia

Rapid global climate change is posing a substantial threat to biodiversity. The assessment of population vulnerability and adaptive capacity under climate change is crucial for informing conservation and mitigation strategies. Here we generate a chromosome-scale genome assembly and re-sequence genomes of 230 individuals collected from 24 populations for Populus koreana, a pioneer and keystone tree species in temperate forests of East Asia. We integrate population genomics and environmental variables to reveal a set of climate-associated single-nucleotide polymorphisms, insertion/deletions and structural variations, especially numerous adaptive non-coding variants distributed across the genome. We incorporate these variants into an environmental modeling scheme to predict a highly spatiotemporal shift of this species in response to future climate change. We further identify the most vulnerable populations that need conservation priority and many candidate genes and variants that may be useful for forest tree breeding with special aims. Our findings highlight the importance of integrating genomic and environmental data to predict adaptive capacity of a key forest to rapid climate change in the future.

Genetic basis of growth reaction to drought stress differs in contrasting high-latitude treeline ecotones of a widespread conifer

Climate change is increasing the frequency and intensity of drought events in many boreal forests. Trees are sessile organisms with a long generation time, which makes them vulnerable to fast climate change and hinders fast adaptations. Therefore, it is important to know how forests cope with drought stress and to explore the genetic basis of these reactions. We investigated three natural populations of white spruce (Picea glauca) in Alaska, located at one drought-limited and two cold-limited treelines with a paired plot design of one forest and one treeline plot. We obtained individual increment cores from 458 trees and climate data to assess dendrophenotypes, in particular the growth reaction to drought stress. To explore the genetic basis of these dendrophenotypes, we genotyped the individual trees at 3000 single nucleotide polymorphisms in candidate genes and performed genotype-phenotype association analysis using linear mixed models and Bayesian sparse linear mixed models. Growth reaction to drought stress differed in contrasting treeline populations. Therefore, the populations are likely to be unevenly affected by climate change. We identified 40 genes associated with dendrophenotypic traits that differed among the treeline populations. Most genes were identified in the drought-limited site, indicating comparatively strong selection pressure of drought-tolerant phenotypes. Contrasting patterns of drought-associated genes among sampled sites and in comparison to Canadian populations in a previous study suggest that drought adaptation acts on a local scale. Our results highlight genes that are associated with wood traits which in turn are critical for the establishment and persistence of future forests under climate change.

Scatter-hoarding birds disperse seeds to sites unfavorable for plant regeneration

Scatter-hoarding birds provide effective long-distance seed dispersal for plants. Transporting seeds far promotes population spread, colonization of new areas, and connectivity between populations. However, whether seeds transported over long distances are deposited in habitats favorable to plant regeneration has rarely been investigated, mainly due to methodological constraints. To investigate dispersal patterns and distances of Swiss stone pine (Pinus cembra) seeds we utilized advances in tracking technology to track the movements of their sole disperser, the spotted nutcracker (Nucifraga caryocatactes). We found routine individual movements between single seed harvesting and seed caching site. Harvesting sites of individual birds overlapped, whereas seed caching sites were separated and located on average 5.3 km away from the harvesting site. Interestingly, most distant caching sites were located at low elevations and in spruce forest, where Swiss stone pine does not naturally occur. This suggests that nutcrackers disperse seeds over long distances but that a large portion of these seeds are cached outside the known pine habitat. Therefore, we conclude that the implications of such long-distance seed dispersal movements for plant populations should be carefully considered in combination with the effects of habitat quality on plant recruitment.

The untapped potential of macrofossils in ancient plant DNA research

The rapid development of ancient DNA analysis in the last decades has induced a paradigm shift in ecology and evolution. Driven by a combination of breakthroughs in DNA isolation techniques, high-throughput sequencing, and bioinformatics, ancient genome-scale data for a rapidly growing variety of taxa are now available, allowing researchers to directly observe demographic and evolutionary processes over time. However, the vast majority of paleogenomic studies still focus on human or animal remains. In this article, we make the case for a vast untapped resource of ancient plant material that is ideally suited for paleogenomic analyses: plant remains, such as needles, leaves, wood, seeds, or fruits, that are deposited in natural archives, such as lake sediments, permafrost, or even ice caves. Such plant remains are commonly found in large numbers and in stratigraphic sequence through time and have so far been used primarily to reconstruct past local species presences and abundances. However, they are also unique repositories of genetic information with the potential to revolutionize the fields of ecology and evolution by directly studying microevolutionary processes over time. Here, we give an overview of the current state-of-the-art, address important challenges, and highlight new research avenues to inspire future research.

Ecological and genomic vulnerability to climate change across native populations of Robusta coffee (Coffea canephora)

The assessment of population vulnerability under climate change is crucial for planning conservation as well as for ensuring food security. Coffea canephora is, in its native habitat, an understorey tree that is mainly distributed in the lowland rainforests of tropical Africa. Also known as Robusta, its commercial value constitutes a significant revenue for many human populations in tropical countries. Comparing ecological and genomic vulnerabilities within the species' native range can provide valuable insights about habitat loss and the species' adaptive potential, allowing to identify genotypes that may act as a resource for varietal improvement. By applying species distribution models, we assessed ecological vulnerability as the decrease in climatic suitability under future climatic conditions from 492 occurrences. We then quantified genomic vulnerability (or risk of maladaptation) as the allelic composition change required to keep pace with predicted climate change. Genomic vulnerability was estimated from genomic environmental correlations throughout the native range. Suitable habitat was predicted to diminish to half its size by 2050, with populations near coastlines and around the Congo River being the most vulnerable. Whole-genome sequencing revealed 165 candidate SNPs associated with climatic adaptation in C. canephora, which were located in genes involved in plant response to biotic and abiotic stressors. Genomic vulnerability was higher for populations in West Africa and in the region at the border between DRC and Uganda. Despite an overall low correlation between genomic and ecological vulnerability at broad scale, these two components of vulnerability overlap spatially in ways that may become damaging. Genomic vulnerability was estimated to be 23% higher in populations where habitat will be lost in 2050 compared to regions where habitat will remain suitable. These results highlight how ecological and genomic vulnerabilities are relevant when planning on how to cope with climate change regarding an economically important species.

Population structure in Quercus suber L. revealed by nuclear microsatellite markers

Quercus suber L. is a sclerophyllous tree species native to the western Mediterranean, a region that is considered highly vulnerable to increased temperatures and severe dry conditions due to environmental changes. Understanding the population structure and demographics of Q. suber is essential in order to anticipate whether populations at greater risk and the species as a whole have the genetic background and reproductive dynamics to enable rapid adaptation. The genetic diversity of Q. suber has been subject to different studies using both chloroplast and nuclear data, but population structure patterns remain unclear. Here, we perform genetic analyses on Q. suber using 13 nuclear microsatellite markers, and analysed 17 distinct locations across the entire range of the species. Structure analyses revealed that Q. suber may contain three major genetic clusters that likely result from isolation in refugia combined with posterior admixture and putative introgression from other Quercus species. Our results show a more complex structure scenario than previously inferred for Q. suber using nuclear markers and suggest that different southern populations contain high levels of genetic variation that may contribute to the resilience of Q. suber in a context of environmental change and adaptive pressure.

Genomic insights into the genotype‐environment mismatch and conservation units of a Qinghai‐Tibet Plateau endemic cypress under climate change

Habitat loss induced by climate warming is a major threat to biodiversity, particularly to threatened species. Understanding the genetic diversity and distributional responses to climate change of threatened species is critical to facilitate their conservation and management. Cupressus gigantea, a rare conifer found in the eastern Qinghai–Tibet Plateau (QTP) at 3000–3600 m.a.s.l., is famous for its largest specimen, the King Cypress, which is >55 m tall. Here, we obtained transcriptome data from 96 samples of 10 populations covering its whole distribution and used these data to characterize genetic diversity, identify conservation units, and elucidate genomic vulnerability to future climate change. After filtering, we identified 145,336, 26,103, and 2833 single nucleotide polymorphisms in the whole, putatively neutral, and putatively adaptive datasets, respectively. Based on the whole and putatively neutral datasets, we found that populations from the Yalu Tsangpo River (YTR) and Nyang River (NR) catchments could be defined as separate management units (MUs), due to distinct genetic clusters and demographic histories. Results of gradient forest models suggest that all populations of C. gigantea may be at risk due to the high expected rate of climate change, and the NR MU had a higher risk than the YTR MU. This study deepens our understanding of the complex evolutionary history and population structure of threatened tree species in extreme environments, such as dry river valleys above 3000 m.a.s.l. in the QTP, and provides insights into their susceptibility to global climate change and potential for adaptive responses.

Genomics and adaptation in forest ecosystems

Rapid human-induced environmental changes like climate warming represent a challenge for forest ecosystems. Due to their biological complexity and the long generation time of their keystone tree species, genetic adaptation in these ecosystems might not be fast enough to keep track with conditions changing at such a fast pace. The study of adaptation to environmental change and its genetic mechanisms is therefore key for ensuring a sustainable support and management of forests. The 4-day conference of the European Research Group EvolTree (https://www.evoltree.eu) on the topic of "Genomics and Adaptation in Forest Ecosystems" brought together over 130 scientists to present and discuss the latest developments and findings in forest evolutionary research. Genomic studies in forest trees have long been hampered by the lack of high-quality genomics resources and affordable genotyping methods. This has dramatically changed in the last few years; the conference impressively showed how such tools are now being applied to study past demography, adaptation and interactions with associated organisms. Moreover, genomic studies are now finally also entering the world of conservation and forest management, for example by measuring the value or cost of interspecific hybridization and introgression, assessing the vulnerability of species and populations to future change, or accurately delineating evolutionary significant units. The newly launched conference series of EvolTree will hopefully play a key role in the exchange and synthesis of such important investigations.

SUPPLEMENTARY INFORMATION

The online version contains supplementary material available at 10.1007/s11295-022-01542-1.

Post-glacial re-colonization and natural selection have shaped growth responses of silver fir across Europe

Warmer climate and more frequent extreme droughts will pose major threats to forest ecosystems. Past demography processes due to post-glacial recolonization and adaptation to local environmental conditions are among the main contributors to genetic differentiation processes among provenances. Assessing the intra-specific variability of tree growth responses to such changes is crucial to explore a species' potential to cope with climate warming. We combined growth-related traits derived from tree-ring width series with neutral genetic information of 18 European provenances of silver fir (Abies alba Mill.) growing in two common garden experiments in Switzerland. Analyses based on neutral single nucleotide polymorphisms revealed that the studied provenances grouped into three longitudinal clusters. These three genetic clusters showed differences in growth traits (height and DBH), with the provenances from the eastern cluster exhibiting the highest growth. The Pyrenees cluster showed significantly lower recovery and resilience to the extreme drought of 2003 as well as lower values of growth autocorrelation. Q_ST-F_ST and correlation analyses with climate of provenance origin suggest that the differences among provenances found in some traits result from natural selection. Our study suggests that the last post-glacial re-colonization and natural selection are the major drivers explaining the intra-specific variability in growth of silver fir across Europe. These findings highlight the importance of combining dendroecology and genetic analyses on fitness-related traits to assess the potential of a species to cope with global environmental change and provide insights to support assisted gene flow to ensure the persistence of the species in European forests.

Prospects and limitations of genomic offset in conservation management

In nature conservation, there is keen interest in predicting how populations will respond to environmental changes such as climate change. These predictions can help determine whether a population can be self-sustaining under future alterations of its habitat or whether it may require human intervention such as protection, restoration, or assisted migration. An increasingly popular approach in this respect is the concept of genomic offset, which combines genomic and environmental data from different time points and/or locations to assess the degree of possible maladaptation to new environmental conditions. Here, we argue that the concept of genomic offset holds great potential, but an exploration of its risks and limitations is needed to use it for recommendations in conservation or assisted migration. After briefly describing the concept, we list important issues to consider (e.g., statistical frameworks, population genetic structure, migration, independent evidence) when using genomic offset or developing these methods further. We conclude that genomic offset is an area of development that still lacks some important features and should be used in combination with other approaches to inform conservation measures.

Experimental support for genomic prediction of climate maladaptation using the machine learning approach Gradient Forests

Gradient Forests (GF) is a machine learning algorithm that is gaining in popularity for studying the environmental drivers of genomic variation and for incorporating genomic information into climate change impact assessments. Here we (i) provide the first experimental evaluation of the ability of "genomic offsets" - a metric of climate maladaptation derived from Gradient Forests - to predict organismal responses to environmental change, and (ii) explore the use of GF for identifying candidate SNPs. We used high-throughput sequencing, genome scans, and several methods, including GF, to identify candidate loci associated with climate adaptation in balsam poplar (Populus balsamifera L.). Individuals collected throughout balsam poplar's range also were planted in two common garden experiments. We used GF to relate candidate loci to environmental gradients and predict the expected magnitude of the response (i.e., the genetic offset metric of maladaptation) of populations when transplanted from their "home" environment to the common gardens. We then compared the predicted genetic offsets from different sets of candidate and randomly selected SNPs to measurements of population performance in the common gardens. We found the expected inverse relationship between genetic offset and performance: populations with larger predicted genetic offsets performed worse in the common gardens than populations with smaller offsets. Also, genetic offset better predicted performance than did "naive" climate transfer distances. However, sets of randomly selected SNPs predicted performance slightly better than did candidate SNPs. Our study provides evidence that genetic offsets represent a first order estimate of the degree of expected maladaptation of populations exposed to rapid environmental change and suggests GF may have some promise as a method for identifying candidate SNPs.