Understanding newsworthiness of an emerging pandemic: international newspaper coverage of the H1N1 outbreak

Association between public attention and monkeypox epidemic: A global lag-correlation analysis

The human monkeypox has become a public health problem globally. Google Trends Index (GTI) is an indicator of public attention, being potential for infectious disease outbreak surveillance. In this study, we used lag-correlation analysis to evaluate the spearman correlation coefficients between public attention and monkeypox epidemic by -36 to +36 days-lag in top 20 countries with most cumulated cases until September 30, 2022, the meta-analyses were performed to pool the coefficients of countries among all lags. We also constructed vector autoregression model and Granger-causality test to probe the significance of GTI in monkeypox forecasting. The strongest spearman correlation was found at lag +13 day (r = 0.53, 95% confidence interval: 0.371-0.703, p < 0.05). Meta-analysis showed significantly positive correlation when the lag was from -12 to +36 day, which was most notable on the third posterior day (lag +3 day). The pooled spearman correlation coefficients were all above 0.200 when the lag ranged from +1 to +20 day, and the causality of GTI for daily case was significant in worldwide and multiple countries. The findings suggested a robust association between 13-days-priority GTI and daily cases worldwide. This work introduced a potential monitor indicator on the early warning and surveillance of monkeypox outbreak.

Understanding Health Communication Through Google Trends and News Coverage for COVID-19: A Multinational Study in Eight Countries

Background

Due to the COVID-19 pandemic, health information related to COVID-19 has spread across news media worldwide. Google is among the most used internet search engines, and the Google Trends tool can reflect how the public seeks COVID-19–related health information during the pandemic.

Objective

The aim of this study was to understand health communication through Google Trends and news coverage and to explore their relationship with prevention and control of COVID-19 at the early epidemic stage.

Methods

To achieve the study objectives, we analyzed the public’s information-seeking behaviors on Google and news media coverage on COVID-19. We collected data on COVID-19 news coverage and Google search queries from eight countries (ie, the United States, the United Kingdom, Canada, Singapore, Ireland, Australia, South Africa, and New Zealand) between January 1 and April 29, 2020. We depicted the characteristics of the COVID-19 news coverage trends over time, as well as the search query trends for the topics of COVID-19–related “diseases,” “treatments and medical resources,” “symptoms and signs,” and “public measures.” The search query trends provided the relative search volume (RSV) as an indicator to represent the popularity of a specific search term in a specific geographic area over time. Also, time-lag correlation analysis was used to further explore the relationship between search terms trends and the number of new daily cases, as well as the relationship between search terms trends and news coverage.

Results

Across all search trends in eight countries, almost all search peaks appeared between March and April 2020, and declined in April 2020. Regarding COVID-19–related “diseases,” in most countries, the RSV of the term “coronavirus” increased earlier than that of “covid-19”; however, around April 2020, the search volume of the term “covid-19” surpassed that of “coronavirus.” Regarding the topic “treatments and medical resources,” the most and least searched terms were “mask” and “ventilator,” respectively. Regarding the topic “symptoms and signs,” “fever” and “cough” were the most searched terms. The RSV for the term “lockdown” was significantly higher than that for “social distancing” under the topic “public health measures.” In addition, when combining search trends with news coverage, there were three main patterns: (1) the pattern for Singapore, (2) the pattern for the United States, and (3) the pattern for the other countries. In the time-lag correlation analysis between the RSV for the topic “treatments and medical resources” and the number of new daily cases, the RSV for all countries except Singapore was positively correlated with new daily cases, with a maximum correlation of 0.8 for the United States. In addition, in the time-lag correlation analysis between the overall RSV for the topic “diseases” and the number of daily news items, the overall RSV was positively correlated with the number of daily news items, the maximum correlation coefficient was more than 0.8, and the search behavior occurred 0 to 17 days earlier than the news coverage.

Conclusions

Our findings revealed public interest in masks, disease control, and public measures, and revealed the potential value of Google Trends in the face of the emergence of new infectious diseases. Also, Google Trends combined with news media can achieve more efficient health communication. Therefore, both news media and Google Trends can contribute to the early prevention and control of epidemics.

Public Information, Traditional Media and Social Networks during the COVID-19 Crisis in Spain

This research presents a diachronic study of the information given about COVID-19 by the main Spanish mass media through their accounts on social networks. The time frame of the analysis ranges from 1 March to 21 June 2020. Data were collected from the days prior to the proclamation of the state of alarm in Spain, in order to observe the growth in the demand for information about COVID-19, and ended on the day that the Spanish government allowed mobility between provinces and, consequently, the expiration of the alarm. It begins with a quantitative and qualitative analysis, the results of which allow us to explain the demand for public information, the degree of interest in the news and the level of interaction that developed. By adapting the Kübler-Ross model, it has been possible to identify the different stages of this public health and communication crisis in relation to public information and media sustainability. It has established the effectiveness of Facebook as an information platform with direct links to news, superior to other networks; the users’ predilection for issues of a social nature over political and technical–health issues; or the relationship found between the rate of publication of messages and the number of deaths from COVID-19.

Tuberculosis and foreign-born populations in the United States: A mixed methods pilot study of media reporting and political identification

Background

Media reporting on communicable diseases has been demonstrated to affect the perception of the public. Communicable disease reporting related to foreign-born persons has not yet been evaluated.

Objective

Examine how political leaning in the media affects reporting on tuberculosis (TB) in foreign-born persons.

Methods

HealthMap, a digital surveillance platform that aggregates news sources on global infectious diseases, was used. Data was queried for media reports from the U.S. between 2011–2019, containing the term “TB” or “tuberculosis” and “foreign born”, “refugee (s),” or “im (migrants).” Reports were reviewed to exclude duplicates and non-human cases. Each media source was rated using two independent media bias indicators to assess political leaning. Forty-six non-tuberculosis reports were randomly sampled and evaluated as a control. Two independent reviewers performed sentiment analysis on each report.

Results

Of 891 TB-associated reports in the US, 46 referenced foreign-born individuals, and were included in this analysis. 60.9% (28) of reports were published in right-leaning news media and 6.5% (3) of reports in left-leaning media, while 39.1% (18) of the control group reports were published in left- leaning media and 10.9% (5) in right-leaning media (p < .001). 43% (20) of all study reports were posted in 2016. Sentiment analysis revealed that right-leaning reports often portrayed foreign-born persons negatively.

Conclusion

Preliminary data from this pilot suggest that political leaning may affect reporting on TB in US foreign-born populations. Right-leaning news organizations produced the most reports on TB, and the majority of these reports portrayed foreign-born persons negatively. In addition, the control group comprised of non-TB, non-foreign born reports on communicable diseases featured a higher percentage of left-leaning news outlets, suggesting that reporting on TB in foreign-born individuals may be of greater interest to right-leaning outlets. Further investigation both in the U.S. and globally is needed.

The impact of news exposure on collective attention in the United States during the 2016 Zika epidemic

In recent years, many studies have drawn attention to the important role of collective awareness and human behaviour during epidemic outbreaks. A number of modelling efforts have investigated the interaction between the disease transmission dynamics and human behaviour change mediated by news coverage and by information spreading in the population. Yet, given the scarcity of data on public awareness during an epidemic, few studies have relied on empirical data. Here, we use fine-grained, geo-referenced data from three online sources—Wikipedia, the GDELT Project and the Internet Archive—to quantify population-scale information seeking about the 2016 Zika virus epidemic in the U.S., explicitly linking such behavioural signal to epidemiological data. Geo-localized Wikipedia pageview data reveal that visiting patterns of Zika-related pages in Wikipedia were highly synchronized across the United States and largely explained by exposure to national television broadcast. Contrary to the assumption of some theoretical epidemic models, news volume and Wikipedia visiting patterns were not significantly correlated with the magnitude or the extent of the epidemic. Attention to Zika, in terms of Zika-related Wikipedia pageviews, was high at the beginning of the outbreak, when public health agencies raised an international alert and triggered media coverage, but subsequently exhibited an activity profile that suggests nonlinear dependencies and memory effects in the relation between information seeking, media pressure, and disease dynamics. This calls for a new and more general modelling framework to describe the interaction between media exposure, public awareness and disease dynamics during epidemic outbreaks.

Despite its importance for public health policy-makers, understanding the impact of media coverage on collective attention during disease outbreaks remains an elusive research task, due to the lack of available data, especially at high spatial granularity. In this paper, we study the dynamics of collective attention received by the 2016 Zika epidemic in the USA and its interplay with the media coverage of the outbreak, at level of US states and cities. We measure the attention to Zika through geo-localized Wikipedia page view data, and we compare it with mentions of Zika in US news outlets and TV shows. We also compare the collective attention received by the outbreak with the incidence of Zika reported by the US Centers for Disease Control and Prevention in each state. We find that the attention dynamics was highly synchronized across states, irrespective of the local risk of transmission of the virus. By building a linear regression model, we show that the dynamics of collective attention is highly predictable, even at state level, only based on the national media coverage received by the outbreak.

Investigating the Effects of Mass Media Exposure on the Uptake of Preventive Measures by Hong Kong Residents during the 2015 MERS Outbreak: The Mediating Role of Interpersonal Communication and the Perception of Concern

In 2015, South Korea experienced the largest outbreak to date of the Middle East Respiratory Syndrome (MERS-CoV) outside the Middle East. Fears related to a potential spread of the disease led to an increased alert level as well as heightened media coverage in the neighboring Hong Kong. A cross-sectional survey (N = 533) among residents of Hong Kong was conducted to assess the relationships between the effects of outbreak-related mass media coverage, interpersonal communication, the perceived level of concern in one's close environment, and the uptake of preventive measures. A serial multiple mediator model finds that interpersonal communication and higher perceived concern indirectly influence the effects of media coverage on the engagement in preventive actions. These results expand previous research on the mediating role of interpersonal communication and support assumptions about a modified two-step flow of communication in the context of a public health emergency.

The Effects of Media Reports on Disease Spread and Important Public Health Measurements

Controlling the spread of influenza to reduce the effects of infection on a population is an important mandate of public health. Mass media reports on an epidemic or pandemic can provide important information to the public, and in turn, can induce positive healthy behaviour practices (i.e., handwashing, social distancing) in the individuals, that will reduce the probability of contracting the disease. Mass media fatigue, however, can dampen these effects. Mathematical models can be used to study the effects of mass media reports on epidemic/pandemic outcomes. In this study we employ a stochastic agent based model to provide a quantification of mass media reports on the variability in important public health measurements. We also include mass media report data compiled by the Global Public Health Intelligence Network, to study the effects of mass media reports in the 2009 H1N1 pandemic. We find that the report rate and the rate at which individuals relax their healthy behaviours (media fatigue) greatly affect the variability in important public health measurements. When the mass media reporting data is included in the model, two peaks of infection result.

Modelling the effects of media during an influenza epidemic

BACKGROUND

Mass media is used to inform individuals regarding diseases within a population. The effects of mass media during disease outbreaks have been studied in the mathematical modelling literature, by including 'media functions' that affect transmission rates in mathematical epidemiological models. The choice of function to employ, however, varies, and thus, epidemic outcomes that are important to inform public health may be affected.

METHODS

We present a survey of the disease modelling literature with the effects of mass media. We present a comparison of the functions employed and compare epidemic results parameterized for an influenza outbreak. An agent-based Monte Carlo simulation is created to access variability around key epidemic measurements, and a sensitivity analysis is completed in order to gain insight into which model parameters have the largest influence on epidemic outcomes.

RESULTS

Epidemic outcome depends on the media function chosen. Parameters that most influence key epidemic outcomes are different for each media function.

CONCLUSION

Different functions used to represent the effects of media during an epidemic will affect the outcomes of a disease model, including the variability in key epidemic measurements. Thus, media functions may not best represent the effects of media during an epidemic. A new method for modelling the effects of media needs to be considered.

Understanding newsworthiness of an emerging pandemic: international newspaper coverage of the H1N1 outbreak

Background and Objectives

During an evolving public health crisis, news organizations disseminate information rapidly, much of which is uncertain, dynamic, and difficult to verify. We examine factors related to international news coverage of H1N1 during the first month after the outbreak in late April 2009 and consider the news media's role as an information source during an emerging pandemic.

Methods

Data on H1N1 news were compiled in real time from newspaper websites across twelve countries between April 29, 2009 and May 28, 2009. A news sample was purposively constructed to capture variation in countries' prior experience with avian influenza outbreaks and pandemic preparation efforts. We analyzed the association between H1N1 news volume and four predictor variables: geographic region, prior experience of a novel flu strain (H5N1), existence of a national pandemic plan, and existence of a localized H1N1 outbreak.

Results

H1N1 news was initially extensive but declined rapidly (OR = 0·85, P < .001). Pandemic planning did not predict newsworthiness. However, countries with prior avian flu experience had higher news volume (OR = 1·411, P < .05), suggesting that H1N1 newsworthiness was bolstered by past experiences. The proportion of H1N1 news was significantly lower in Europe than elsewhere (OR = 0·388, P < 0·05). Finally, coverage of H1N1 increased after a first in‐country case (OR = 1·415, P < .01), interrupting the pattern of coverage decline.

Conclusions

Findings demonstrate the enhanced newsworthiness of localized threats, even during an emerging pandemic. We discuss implications for news media's role in effective public health communication throughout an epidemic given the demonstrated precipitous decline in news interest.