Association between a 46-SNP Polygenic Risk Score and melanoma risk in Dutch patients with familial melanoma

Melanoma risk prediction based on a polygenic risk score and clinical risk factors

Melanoma is one of the most commonly diagnosed cancers in the Western world: third in Australia, fifth in the USA and sixth in the European Union. Predicting an individual's personal risk of developing melanoma may aid them in undertaking effective risk reduction measures. The objective of this study was to use the UK Biobank to predict the 10-year risk of melanoma using a newly developed polygenic risk score (PRS) and an existing clinical risk model. We developed the PRS using a matched case-control training dataset ( N  = 16 434) in which age and sex were controlled by design. The combined risk score was developed using a cohort development dataset ( N  = 54 799) and its performance was tested using a cohort testing dataset ( N  = 54 798). Our PRS comprises 68 single-nucleotide polymorphisms and had an area under the receiver operating characteristic curve of 0.639 [95% confidence interval (CI) = 0.618-0.661]. In the cohort testing data, the hazard ratio per SD of the combined risk score was 1.332 (95% CI = 1.263-1.406). Harrell's C-index was 0.685 (95% CI = 0.654-0.715). Overall, the standardized incidence ratio was 1.193 (95% CI = 1.067-1.335). By combining a PRS and a clinical risk score, we have developed a risk prediction model that performs well in terms of discrimination and calibration. At an individual level, information on the 10-year risk of melanoma can motivate people to take risk-reduction action. At the population level, risk stratification can allow more effective population-level screening strategies to be implemented.

Plasma Thermogram Parameters Differentiate Status and Overall Survival of Melanoma Patients

Melanoma is the fifth most common cancer in the United States and the deadliest of all skin cancers. Even with recent advancements in treatment, there is still a 13% two-year recurrence rate, with approximately 30% of recurrences being distant metastases. Identifying patients at high risk for recurrence or advanced disease is critical for optimal clinical decision-making. Currently, there is substantial variability in the selection of screening tests and imaging, with most modalities characterized by relatively low accuracy. In the current study, we built upon a preliminary examination of differential scanning calorimetry (DSC) in the melanoma setting to examine its utility for diagnostic and prognostic assessment. Using regression analysis, we found that selected DSC profile (thermogram) parameters were useful for differentiation between melanoma patients and healthy controls, with more complex models distinguishing melanoma patients with no evidence of disease from patients with active disease. Thermogram features contributing to the third principal component (PC3) were useful for differentiation between controls and melanoma patients, and Cox proportional hazards regression analysis indicated that PC3 was useful for predicting the overall survival of active melanoma patients. With the further development and optimization of the classification method, DSC could complement current diagnostic strategies to improve screening, diagnosis, and prognosis of melanoma patients.

Melanoma susceptibility: an update on genetic and epigenetic findings

Malignant melanoma is one of the most highly ranked cancers in terms of years of life lost. Hereditary melanoma with its increased familial susceptibility is thought to affect up to 12% of all melanoma patients. In the past, only a few high-penetrance genes associated with familial melanoma, such as CDKN2A and CDK4, have been clinically tested. However, findings now indicate that melanoma is a cancer most likely to develop not only due to high-penetrance variants but also due to polygenic inheritance patterns, leaving no clear division between the hereditary and sporadic development of malignant melanoma. Various pathogenic low-penetrance variants were recently discovered through genome-wide association studies, and are now translated into polygenic risk scores. These can show superior sensitivity rates for the prediction of melanoma susceptibility and related mixed cancer syndromes than risk scores based on phenotypic traits of the patients, with odds ratios of up to 5.7 for patients in risk groups. In addition to describing genetic findings, we also review the first results of epigenetic research showing constitutional methylation changes that alter the susceptibility to cutaneous melanoma and its risk factors.

Genomic Risk Score for Melanoma in a Prospective Study of Older Individuals

BACKGROUND

Recent genome-wide association meta-analysis for melanoma doubled the number of previously identified variants. We assessed the performance of an updated polygenic risk score (PRS) in a population of older individuals, where melanoma incidence and cumulative ultraviolet radiation exposure is greatest.

METHODS

We assessed a PRS for cutaneous melanoma comprising 55 variants in a prospective study of 12 712 individuals in the ASPirin in Reducing Events in the Elderly Trial. We evaluated incident melanomas diagnosed during the trial and prevalent melanomas diagnosed preenrolment (self-reported). Multivariable models examined associations between PRS as a continuous variable (per SD) and categorical (low-risk [0%-20%], medium-risk [21%-80%], high-risk [81%-100%] groups) with incident melanoma. Logistic regression examined the association between PRS and prevalent melanoma.

RESULTS

At baseline, mean participant age was 75 years; 55.0% were female, and 528 (4.2%) had prevalent melanomas. During follow-up (median = 4.7 years), 120 (1.0%) incident cutaneous melanomas occurred, 98 of which were in participants with no history. PRS was associated with incident melanoma (hazard ratio = 1.46 per SD, 95% confidence interval [CI] = 1.20 to 1.77) and prevalent melanoma (odds ratio [OR] = 1.55 per SD, 95% CI = 1.42 to 1.69). Participants in the highest-risk PRS group had increased risk compared with the low-risk group for incident melanoma (OR = 2.51, 95% CI = 1.28 to 4.92) and prevalent melanoma (OR = 3.66, 95% CI = 2.69 to 5.05). When stratifying by sex, only males had an association between the PRS and incident melanoma, whereas both sexes had an association between the PRS and prevalent melanoma.

CONCLUSIONS

A genomic risk score is associated with melanoma risk in older individuals and may contribute to targeted surveillance.

Polygenic Panels Predicting the Susceptibility of Multiple Upper Aerodigestive Tract Cancer in Oral Cancer Patients

Head and neck cancer was closely related with habitual use of cigarette and alcohol. Those cancer patients are susceptible to develop multiple primary tumors (MPTs). In this study, we utilized the single nucleotide polymorphisms (SNPs) array (Affymetrix Axion Genome-Wide TWB 2.0 Array Plate) to investigate patients' risks of developing multiple primary cancers. We recruited 712 male head and neck cancer patients between Mar 1996 and Feb 2017. Two hundred and eighty-six patients (40.2%) had MPTs and 426 (59.8%) had single cancer. Four hundred and twelve normal controls were also recruited. A list of seventeen factors was extracted and ten factors were demonstrated to increase the risks of multiple primary cancers (alcohol drinking, rs118169127, rs149089400, rs76367287, rs61401220, rs141057871, rs7129229, older age, rs3760265, rs9554264; all were p value < 0.05). Polygenic scoring model was built and the area under curve to predict the risk developing MPTs is 0.906. Alcohol drinking, among the seventeen factors, was the most important risk factor to develop MPT in upper aerodigestive tract (OR: 7.071, 95% C.I.: 2.134-23.434). For those with high score in polygenic model, routine screening of upper digestive tract including laryngoscope and esophagoscope is suggested to detect new primaries early.