Turning subtypes into disease axes to improve prediction of COPD progression

Joint clinical and molecular subtyping of COPD with variational autoencoders

Chronic Obstructive Pulmonary Disease (COPD) is a complex, heterogeneous disease. Traditional subtyping methods generally focus on either the clinical manifestations or the molecular endotypes of the disease, resulting in classifications that do not fully capture the disease's complexity. Here, we bridge this gap by introducing a subtyping pipeline that integrates clinical and gene expression data with variational autoencoders. We apply this methodology to the COPDGene study, a large study of current and former smoking individuals with and without COPD. Our approach generates a set of vector embeddings, called Personalized Integrated Profiles (PIPs), that recapitulate the joint clinical and molecular state of the subjects in the study. Prediction experiments show that the PIPs have a predictive accuracy comparable to or better than other embedding approaches. Using trajectory learning approaches, we analyze the main trajectories of variation in the PIP space and identify five well-separated subtypes with distinct clinical phenotypes, expression signatures, and disease outcomes. Notably, these subtypes are more robust to data resampling compared to those identified using traditional clustering approaches. Overall, our findings provide new avenues to establish fine-grained associations between the clinical characteristics, molecular processes, and disease outcomes of COPD.

Unsupervised Learning Identifies Computed Tomographic Measurements as Primary Drivers of Progression, Exacerbation, and Mortality in Chronic Obstructive Pulmonary Disease

Rationale: Chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (COPD) is a heterogeneous syndrome with phenotypic manifestations that tend to be distributed along a continuum. Unsupervised machine learning based on broad selection of imaging and clinical phenotypes may be used to identify primary variables that define disease axes and stratify patients with COPD. Objectives: To identify primary variables driving COPD heterogeneity using principal component analysis and to define disease axes and assess the prognostic value of these axes across three outcomes: progression, exacerbation, and mortality. Methods: We included 7,331 patients between 39 and 85 years old, of whom 40.3% were Black and 45.8% were female smokers with a mean of 44.6 pack-years, from the COPDGene (Genetic Epidemiology of COPD) phase I cohort (2008-2011) in our analysis. Out of a total of 916 phenotypes, 147 continuous clinical, spirometric, and computed tomography (CT) features were selected. For each principal component (PC), we computed a PC score based on feature weights. We used PC score distributions to define disease axes along which we divided the patients into quartiles. To assess the prognostic value of these axes, we applied logistic regression analyses to estimate 5-year (n = 4,159) and 10-year (n = 1,487) odds of progression. Cox regression and Kaplan-Meier analyses were performed to estimate 5-year and 10-year risk of exacerbation (n = 6,532) and all-cause mortality (n = 7,331). Results: The first PC, accounting for 43.7% of variance, was defined by CT measures of air trapping and emphysema. The second PC, accounting for 13.7% of variance, was defined by spirometric and CT measures of vital capacity and lung volume. The third PC, accounting for 7.9% of the variance, was defined by CT measures of lung mass, airway thickening, and body habitus. Stratification of patients across each disease axis revealed up to 3.2-fold (95% confidence interval [CI] 2.4, 4.3) greater odds of 5-year progression, 5.4-fold (95% CI 4.6, 6.3) greater risk of 5-year exacerbation, and 5.0-fold (95% CI 4.2, 6.0) greater risk of 10-year mortality between the highest and lowest quartiles. Conclusions: Unsupervised learning analysis of the COPDGene cohort reveals that CT measurements may bolster patient stratification along the continuum of COPD phenotypes. Each of the disease axes also individually demonstrate prognostic potential, predictive of future forced expiratory volume in 1 second decline, exacerbation, and mortality.

Unravelling the mechanisms driving multimorbidity in COPD to develop holistic approaches to patient-centred care

COPD is a major cause of morbidity and mortality worldwide. Multimorbidity is common in COPD patients and a key modifiable factor, which requires timely identification and targeted holistic management strategies to improve outcomes and reduce the burden of disease.We discuss the use of integrative approaches, such as cluster analysis and network-based theory, to understand the common and novel pathobiological mechanisms underlying COPD and comorbid disease, which are likely to be key to informing new management strategies.Furthermore, we discuss the current understanding of mechanistic drivers to multimorbidity in COPD, including hypotheses such as multimorbidity as a result of shared common exposure to noxious stimuli (e.g. tobacco smoke), or as a consequence of loss of function following the development of pulmonary disease. In addition, we explore the links to pulmonary disease processes such as systemic overspill of pulmonary inflammation, immune cell priming within the inflamed COPD lung and targeted messengers such as extracellular vesicles as a result of local damage as a cause for multimorbidity in COPD.Finally, we focus on current and new management strategies which may target these underlying mechanisms, with the aim of holistic, patient-centred treatment rather than single disease management.

Machine Learning Characterization of COPD Subtypes: Insights From the COPDGene Study

COPD is a heterogeneous syndrome. Many COPD subtypes have been proposed, but there is not yet consensus on how many COPD subtypes there are and how they should be defined. The COPD Genetic Epidemiology Study (COPDGene), which has generated 10-year longitudinal chest imaging, spirometry, and molecular data, is a rich resource for relating COPD phenotypes to underlying genetic and molecular mechanisms. In this article, we place COPDGene clustering studies in context with other highly cited COPD clustering studies, and summarize the main COPD subtype findings from COPDGene. First, most manifestations of COPD occur along a continuum, which explains why continuous aspects of COPD or disease axes may be more accurate and reproducible than subtypes identified through clustering methods. Second, continuous COPD-related measures can be used to create subgroups through the use of predictive models to define cut-points, and we review COPDGene research on blood eosinophil count thresholds as a specific example. Third, COPD phenotypes identified or prioritized through machine learning methods have led to novel biological discoveries, including novel emphysema genetic risk variants and systemic inflammatory subtypes of COPD. Fourth, trajectory-based COPD subtyping captures differences in the longitudinal evolution of COPD, addressing a major limitation of clustering analyses that are confounded by disease severity. Ongoing longitudinal characterization of subjects in COPDGene will provide useful insights about the relationship between lung imaging parameters, molecular markers, and COPD progression that will enable the identification of subtypes based on underlying disease processes and distinct patterns of disease progression, with the potential to improve the clinical relevance and reproducibility of COPD subtypes.