Machine-Learning-Based Prediction of a Missed Scheduled Clinical Appointment by Patients With Diabetes

Enhancing Health Equity by Predicting Missed Appointments in Health Care: Machine Learning Study

BACKGROUND

The phenomenon of patients missing booked appointments without canceling them-known as Did Not Show (DNS), Did Not Attend (DNA), or Failed To Attend (FTA)-has a detrimental effect on patients' health and results in massive health care resource wastage.

OBJECTIVE

Our objective was to develop machine learning (ML) models and evaluate their performance in predicting the likelihood of DNS for hospital outpatient appointments at the MidCentral District Health Board (MDHB) in New Zealand.

METHODS

We sourced 5 years of MDHB outpatient records (a total of 1,080,566 outpatient visits) to build the ML prediction models. We developed 3 ML models using logistic regression, random forest, and Extreme Gradient Boosting (XGBoost). Subsequently, 10-fold cross-validation and hyperparameter tuning were deployed to minimize model bias and boost the algorithms' prediction strength. All models were evaluated against accuracy, sensitivity, specificity, and area under the receiver operating characteristic (AUROC) curve metrics.

RESULTS

Based on 5 years of MDHB data, the best prediction classifier was XGBoost, with an area under the curve (AUC) of 0.92, sensitivity of 0.83, and specificity of 0.85. The patients' DNS history, age, ethnicity, and appointment lead time significantly contributed to DNS prediction. An ML system trained on a large data set can produce useful levels of DNS prediction.

CONCLUSIONS

This research is one of the very first published studies that use ML technologies to assist with DNS management in New Zealand. It is a proof of concept and could be used to benchmark DNS predictions for the MDHB and other district health boards. We encourage conducting additional qualitative research to investigate the root cause of DNS issues and potential solutions. Addressing DNS using better strategies potentially can result in better utilization of health care resources and improve health equity.

Decision analysis framework for predicting no-shows to appointments using machine learning algorithms

BACKGROUND

No-show to medical appointments has significant adverse effects on healthcare systems and their clients. Using machine learning to predict no-shows allows managers to implement strategies such as overbooking and reminders targeting patients most likely to miss appointments, optimizing the use of resources.

METHODS

In this study, we proposed a detailed analytical framework for predicting no-shows while addressing imbalanced datasets. The framework includes a novel use of z-fold cross-validation performed twice during the modeling process to improve model robustness and generalization. We also introduce Symbolic Regression (SR) as a classification algorithm and Instance Hardness Threshold (IHT) as a resampling technique and compared their performance with that of other classification algorithms, such as K-Nearest Neighbors (KNN) and Support Vector Machine (SVM), and resampling techniques, such as Random under Sampling (RUS), Synthetic Minority Oversampling Technique (SMOTE) and NearMiss-1. We validated the framework using two attendance datasets from Brazilian hospitals with no-show rates of 6.65% and 19.03%.

RESULTS

From the academic perspective, our study is the first to propose using SR and IHT to predict the no-show of patients. Our findings indicate that SR and IHT presented superior performances compared to other techniques, particularly IHT, which excelled when combined with all classification algorithms and led to low variability in performance metrics results. Our results also outperformed sensitivity outcomes reported in the literature, with values above 0.94 for both datasets.

CONCLUSION

This is the first study to use SR and IHT methods to predict patient no-shows and the first to propose performing z-fold cross-validation twice. Our study highlights the importance of avoiding relying on few validation runs for imbalanced datasets as it may lead to biased results and inadequate analysis of the generalization and stability of the models obtained during the training stage.

Attempt to Establish Prognostic Predictive System for Hepatocellular Carcinoma Using Artificial Intelligence for Assistance with Selection of Treatment Modality

Introduction

Because of recent developments in treatments for hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC), methods for determining suitable therapy for initial or recurrent HCC have become important. This study used artificial intelligence (AI) findings to establish a system for predicting prognosis of HCC patients at time of reoccurrence based on clinical data as a reference for selection of treatment modalities.

Methods

As a training cohort, 5,701 observations obtained at the initial and each subsequent treatment for recurrence from 1,985 HCC patients at a single center from 2000 to 2021 were used. The validation cohort included 5,692 observations from patients at multiple centers obtained at the time of the initial treatment. An AI calculating system (PRAID) was constructed based on 25 clinical factors noted at each treatment from the training cohort, and then predictive prognostic values for 1- and 3-year survival in both cohorts were evaluated.

Results

After exclusion of patients lacking clinical data regarding albumin-bilirubin (ALBI) grade or tumor-node-metastasis stage of the Liver Cancer Study Group of Japan, 6th edition (TNM-LCSGJ 6th), ALBI-TNM-LCSGJ 6th (ALBI-T) and modified ALBI-T scores confirmed that prognosis for patients in both cohorts was similar. The area under the curve for prediction of both 1- and 3-year survival in the validation cohort was 0.841 (sensitivity 0.933 [95% CI: 0.925-0.940], specificity 0.517 [95% CI: 0.484-0.549]) and 0.796 (sensitivity 0.806 [95% CI: 0.790-0.821], specificity 0.646 [95% CI: 0.624-0.668]), respectively.

Conclusion

The present PRAID system might provide useful prognostic information related to short and medium survival for decision-making regarding the best therapeutic modality for both initial and recurrent HCC cases.

Machine Learning Predictions on Outpatient No-Show Appointments in a Malaysia Major Tertiary Hospital

Introduction

A no-show appointment occurs when a patient does not attend a previously booked appointment. This situation can cause other problems, such as discontinuity of patient treatments as well as a waste of both human and financial resources. One of the latest approaches to address this issue is predicting no-shows using machine learning techniques. This study aims to propose a predictive analytical approach for developing a patient no-show appointment model in Hospital Kuala Lumpur (HKL) using machine learning algorithms.

Methods

This study uses outpatient data from the HKL's Patient Management System (SPP) throughout 2019. The final data set has 246,943 appointment records with 13 attributes used for both descriptive and predictive analyses. The predictive analysis was carried out using seven machine learning algorithms, namely, logistic regression (LR), decision tree (DT), k-near neighbours (k-NN), Naïve Bayes (NB), random forest (RF), gradient boosting (GB) and multilayer perceptron (MLP).

Results

The descriptive analysis showed that the no-show rate was 28%, and attributes such as the month of the appointment and the gender of the patient seem to influence the possibility of a patient not showing up. Evaluation of the predictive model found that the GB model had the highest accuracy of 78%, F1 score of 0.76 and area under the curve (AUC) value of 0.65.

Conclusion

The predictive model could be used to formulate intervention steps to reduce no-shows, improving patient care quality.

Development of an evidence-based model for predicting patient, provider, and appointment factors that influence no-shows in a rural healthcare system

BACKGROUND

No-show appointments pose a significant challenge for healthcare providers, particularly in rural areas. In this study, we developed an evidence-based predictive model for patient no-shows at the Marshfield Clinic Health System (MCHS) rural provider network in Wisconsin, with the aim of improving overbooking approaches in outpatient settings and reducing the negative impact of no-shows in our underserved rural patient populations.

METHODS

Retrospective data (2021) were obtained from the MCHS scheduling system, which included 1,260,083 total appointments from 263,464 patients, as well as their demographic, appointment, and insurance information. We used descriptive statistics to associate variables with show or no-show status, logistic regression, and random forests utilized, and eXtreme Gradient Boosting (XGBoost) was chosen to develop the final model, determine cut-offs, and evaluate performance. We also used the model to predict future no-shows for appointments from 2022 and onwards.

RESULTS

The no-show rate was 6.0% in both the train and test datasets. The train and test datasets both yielded 5.98. Appointments scheduled further in advance (> 60 days of lead time) had a higher (7.7%) no-show rate. Appointments for patients aged 21-30 had the highest no-show rate (11.8%), and those for patients over 60 years of age had the lowest (2.9%). The model predictions yielded an Area Under Curve (AUC) of 0.84 for the train set and 0.83 for the test set. With the cut-off set to 0.4, the sensitivity was 0.71 and the positive predictive value was 0.18. Model results were used to recommend 1 overbook for every 6 at-risk appointments per provider per day.

CONCLUSIONS

Our findings demonstrate the feasibility of developing a predictive model based on administrative data from a predominantly rural healthcare system. Our new model distinguished between show and no-show appointments with high performance, and 1 overbook was advised for every 6 at-risk appointments. This data-driven approach to mitigating the impact of no-shows increases treatment availability in rural areas by overbooking appointment slots on days with an elevated risk of no-shows.

The promise and limitations of artificial intelligence in musculoskeletal imaging

With the recent developments in deep learning and the rapid growth of convolutional neural networks, artificial intelligence has shown promise as a tool that can transform several aspects of the musculoskeletal imaging cycle. Its applications can involve both interpretive and non-interpretive tasks such as the ordering of imaging, scheduling, protocoling, image acquisition, report generation and communication of findings. However, artificial intelligence tools still face a number of challenges that can hinder effective implementation into clinical practice. The purpose of this review is to explore both the successes and limitations of artificial intelligence applications throughout the muscuskeletal imaging cycle and to highlight how these applications can help enhance the service radiologists deliver to their patients, resulting in increased efficiency as well as improved patient and provider satisfaction.

The Application of Digital Technologies and Artificial Intelligence in Healthcare: An Overview on Nutrition Assessment

In the last decade, artificial intelligence (AI) and AI-mediated technologies have undergone rapid evolution in healthcare and medicine, from apps to computer software able to analyze medical images, robotic surgery and advanced data storage system. The main aim of the present commentary is to briefly describe the evolution of AI and its applications in healthcare, particularly in nutrition and clinical biochemistry. Indeed, AI is revealing itself to be an important tool in clinical nutrition by using telematic means to self-monitor various health metrics, including blood glucose levels, body weight, heart rate, fat percentage, blood pressure, activity tracking and calorie intake trackers. In particular, the application of the most common digital technologies used in the field of nutrition as well as the employment of AI in the management of diabetes and obesity, two of the most common nutrition-related pathologies worldwide, will be presented.

Development and validation of nonattendance predictive models for scheduled adult outpatient appointments in different medical specialties

INTRODUCTION

Nonattendance is a critical problem that affects health care worldwide. Our aim was to build and validate predictive models of nonattendance in all outpatients appointments, general practitioners, and clinical and surgical specialties.

METHODS

A cohort study of adult patients, who had scheduled outpatient appointments for General Practitioners, Clinical and Surgical specialties, was conducted between January 2015 and December 2016, at the Italian Hospital of Buenos Aires. We evaluated potential predictors grouped in baseline patient characteristics, characteristics of the appointment scheduling process, patient history, characteristics of the appointment, and comorbidities. Patients were divided between those who attended their appointments, and those who did not. We generated predictive models for nonattendance for all appointments and the three subgroups.

RESULTS

Of 2,526,549 appointments included, 703,449 were missed (27.8%). The predictive model for all appointments contains 30 variables, with an area under the ROC (AUROC) curve of 0.71, calibration-in-the-large (CITL) of 0.046, and calibration slope of 1.03 in the validation cohort. For General Practitioners the model has 28 variables (AUROC of 0.72, CITL of 0.053, and calibration slope of 1.01). For clinical subspecialties, the model has 23 variables (AUROC of 0.71, CITL of 0.039, and calibration slope of 1), and for surgical specialties, the model has 22 variables (AUROC of 0.70, CITL of 0.023, and calibration slope of 1.01).

CONCLUSION

We build robust predictive models of nonattendance with adequate precision and calibration for each of the subgroups.

Exploring potential barriers in equitable access to pediatric diagnostic imaging using machine learning

In this work, we examine magnetic resonance imaging (MRI) and ultrasound (US) appointments at the Diagnostic Imaging (DI) department of a pediatric hospital to discover possible relationships between selected patient features and no-show or long waiting room time endpoints. The chosen features include age, sex, income, distance from the hospital, percentage of non-English speakers in a postal code, percentage of single caregivers in a postal code, appointment time slot (morning, afternoon, evening), and day of the week (Monday to Sunday). We trained univariate Logistic Regression (LR) models using the training sets and identified predictive (significant) features that remained significant in the test sets. We also implemented multivariate Random Forest (RF) models to predict the endpoints. We achieved Area Under the Receiver Operating Characteristic Curve (AUC) of 0.82 and 0.73 for predicting no-show and long waiting room time endpoints, respectively. The univariate LR analysis on DI appointments uncovered the effect of the time of appointment during the day/week, and patients' demographics such as income and the number of caregivers on the no-shows and long waiting room time endpoints. For predicting no-show, we found age, time slot, and percentage of single caregiver to be the most critical contributors. Age, distance, and percentage of non-English speakers were the most important features for our long waiting room time prediction models. We found no sex discrimination among the scheduled pediatric DI appointments. Nonetheless, inequities based on patient features such as low income and language barrier did exist.

Investigation on factors related to poor CPAP adherence using machine learning: a pilot study

To improve patients' adherence to continuous positive airway pressure (CPAP) therapy, this study aimed to clarify whether machine learning-based data analysis can identify the factors related to poor CPAP adherence (i.e., CPAP usage that does not reach four hours per day for five days a week). We developed a CPAP adherence prediction model using logistic regression and learn-to-rank machine learning with a pairwise approach. We then investigated adherence prediction performance targeting a 12-week period and the top ten factors correlating to poor CPAP adherence. The CPAP logs of 219 patients with obstructive sleep apnea (OSA) obtained from clinical treatment at Kyoto University Hospital were used. The highest adherence prediction accuracy obtained was an F1 score of 0.864. Out of the top ten factors obtained with the highest prediction accuracy, four were consistent with already-known clinical knowledge. The factors for better CPAP adherence indicate that air leakage should be avoided, mask pressure should be kept constant, and CPAP usage duration should be longer and kept constant. The results indicate that machine learning is an adequate method for investigating factors related to poor CPAP adherence.

Artificial intelligence, machine learning and deep learning in musculoskeletal imaging: Current applications

Artificial intelligence is rapidly expanding in all technological fields. The medical field, and especially diagnostic imaging, has been showing the highest developmental potential. Artificial intelligence aims at human intelligence simulation through the management of complex problems. This review describes the technical background of artificial intelligence, machine learning, and deep learning. The first section illustrates the general potential of artificial intelligence applications in the context of request management, data acquisition, image reconstruction, archiving, and communication systems. In the second section, the prospective of dedicated tools for segmentation, lesion detection, automatic diagnosis, and classification of musculoskeletal disorders is discussed.

Prospective Evaluation of a Machine-Learning Prediction Model for Missed Radiology Appointments

The term “no-show” refers to scheduled appointments that a patient misses, or for which she arrives too late to utilize medical resources. Accurately predicting no-shows creates opportunities to intervene, ensuring that patients receive needed medical resources. A machine-learning (ML) model can accurately identify individuals at high no-show risk, to facilitate strategic and targeted interventions. We used 4,546,104 non-same-day scheduled appointments in our medical system from 1/1/2017 through 1/1/2020 for training data, including 631,386 no-shows. We applied eight ML techniques, which yielded cross-validation AUCs of 0.77–0.93. We then prospectively tested the best performing model, Gradient Boosted Regression Trees, over a 6-week period at a single outpatient location. We observed 123 no-shows. The model accurately identified likely no-show patients retrospectively (AUC 0.93) and prospectively (AUC 0.73, p < 0.0005). Individuals in the highest-risk category were three times more likely to no-show than the average of all other patients. No-show prediction modeling based on machine learning has the potential to identify patients for targeted interventions to improve their access to medical resources, reduce waste in the medical system and improve overall operational efficiency. Caution is advised, due to the potential for bias to decrease the quality of service for patients based on race, zip code, and gender.

Overview of Noninterpretive Artificial Intelligence Models for Safety, Quality, Workflow, and Education Applications in Radiology Practice

Artificial intelligence has become a ubiquitous term in radiology over the past several years, and much attention has been given to applications that aid radiologists in the detection of abnormalities and diagnosis of diseases. However, there are many potential applications related to radiologic image quality, safety, and workflow improvements that present equal, if not greater, value propositions to radiology practices, insurance companies, and hospital systems. This review focuses on six major categories for artificial intelligence applications: study selection and protocoling, image acquisition, worklist prioritization, study reporting, business applications, and resident education. All of these categories can substantially affect different aspects of radiology practices and workflows. Each of these categories has different value propositions in terms of whether they could be used to increase efficiency, improve patient safety, increase revenue, or save costs. Each application is covered in depth in the context of both current and future areas of work. Keywords: Use of AI in Education, Application Domain, Supervised Learning, Safety © RSNA, 2022.

Artificial Intelligence in Diagnostic Radiology: Where Do We Stand, Challenges, and Opportunities

ABSTRACT

Artificial intelligence (AI) is the most revolutionizing development in the health care industry in the current decade, with diagnostic imaging having the greatest share in such development. Machine learning and deep learning (DL) are subclasses of AI that show breakthrough performance in image analysis. They have become the state of the art in the field of image classification and recognition. Machine learning deals with the extraction of the important characteristic features from images, whereas DL uses neural networks to solve such problems with better performance. In this review, we discuss the current applications of machine learning and DL in the field of diagnostic radiology.Deep learning applications can be divided into medical imaging analysis and applications beyond analysis. In the field of medical imaging analysis, deep convolutional neural networks are used for image classification, lesion detection, and segmentation. Also used are recurrent neural networks when extracting information from electronic medical records and to augment the use of convolutional neural networks in the field of image classification. Generative adversarial networks have been explicitly used in generating high-resolution computed tomography and magnetic resonance images and to map computed tomography images from the corresponding magnetic resonance imaging. Beyond image analysis, DL can be used for quality control, workflow organization, and reporting.In this article, we review the most current AI models used in medical imaging research, providing a brief explanation of the various models described in the literature within the past 5 years. Emphasis is placed on the various DL models, as they are the most state-of-art in imaging analysis.

Artificial intelligence and diabetes technology: A review

Artificial intelligence (AI) is widely discussed in the popular literature and is portrayed as impacting many aspects of human life, both in and out of the workplace. The potential for revolutionizing healthcare is significant because of the availability of increasingly powerful computational platforms and methods, along with increasingly informative sources of patient data, both in and out of clinical settings. This review aims to provide a realistic assessment of the potential for AI in understanding and managing diabetes, accounting for the state of the art in the methodology and medical devices that collect data, process data, and act accordingly. Acknowledging that many conflicting definitions of AI have been put forth, this article attempts to characterize the main elements of the field as they relate to diabetes, identifying the main perspectives and methods that can (i) affect basic understanding of the disease, (ii) affect understanding of risk factors (genetic, clinical, and behavioral) of diabetes development, (iii) improve diagnosis, (iv) improve understanding of the arc of disease (progression and personal/societal impact), and finally (v) improve treatment.

Noninterpretive Uses of Artificial Intelligence in Radiology

We deem a computer to exhibit artificial intelligence (AI) when it performs a task that would normally require intelligent action by a human. Much of the recent excitement about AI in the medical literature has revolved around the ability of AI models to recognize anatomy and detect pathology on medical images, sometimes at the level of expert physicians. However, AI can also be used to solve a wide range of noninterpretive problems that are relevant to radiologists and their patients. This review summarizes some of the newer noninterpretive uses of AI in radiology.

Factors associated with missed appointments by adults with type 2 diabetes mellitus: a systematic review

Keeping regular medical appointments is a key indicator of patient engagement in diabetes care. Nevertheless, a significant proportion of adults with type 2 diabetes mellitus (T2DM) miss their regular medical appointments. In order to prevent and delay diabetes-related complications, it is essential to understand the factors associated with missed appointments among adults with T2DM. We synthesized evidence concerning factors associated with missed appointments among adults with T2DM. Using five electronic databases, including PubMed, Embase, Cumulative Index to Nursing and Allied Health Literature, PsycINFO and Web of Science, a systematic literature search was done to identify studies that describe factors related to missed appointments by adults with T2DM. A total of 18 articles met the inclusion criteria. The majority of studies included in this review were cohort studies using medical records. While more than half of the studies were of high quality, the operational definitions of missed appointments varied greatly across studies. Factors associated with missed appointments were categorized as patient characteristics, healthcare system and provider factors and interpersonal factors with inconsistent findings. Patient characteristics was the most commonly addressed category, followed by health system and provider factors. Only three studies addressed interpersonal factors, two of which were qualitative. An increasing number of people live with one or more chronic conditions which require more careful attention to patient-centered care and support. Future research is warranted to address interpersonal factors from patient perspectives to better understand the underlying causes of missed appointments among adults with T2DM.

Artificial intelligence in paediatric radiology: Future opportunities

Artificial intelligence (AI) has received widespread and growing interest in healthcare, as a method to save time, cost and improve efficiencies. The high-performance statistics and diagnostic accuracies reported by using AI algorithms (with respect to predefined reference standards), particularly from image pattern recognition studies, have resulted in extensive applications proposed for clinical radiology, especially for enhanced image interpretation. Whilst certain sub-speciality areas in radiology, such as those relating to cancer screening, have received wide-spread attention in the media and scientific community, children's imaging has been hitherto neglected.In this article, we discuss a variety of possible 'use cases' in paediatric radiology from a patient pathway perspective where AI has either been implemented or shown early-stage feasibility, while also taking inspiration from the adult literature to propose potential areas for future development. We aim to demonstrate how a 'future, enhanced paediatric radiology service' could operate and to stimulate further discussion with avenues for research.

Potential predictors of type-2 diabetes risk: machine learning, synthetic data and wearable health devices

BACKGROUND

The aim of a recent research project was the investigation of the mechanisms involved in the onset of type 2 diabetes in the absence of familiarity. This has led to the development of a computational model that recapitulates the aetiology of the disease and simulates the immunological and metabolic alterations linked to type-2 diabetes subjected to clinical, physiological, and behavioural features of prototypical human individuals.

RESULTS

We analysed the time course of 46,170 virtual subjects, experiencing different lifestyle conditions. We then set up a statistical model able to recapitulate the simulated outcomes.

CONCLUSIONS

The resulting machine learning model adequately predicts the synthetic dataset and can, therefore, be used as a computationally-cheaper version of the detailed mathematical model, ready to be implemented on mobile devices to allow self-assessment by informed and aware individuals. The computational model used to generate the dataset of this work is available as a web-service at the following address: http://kraken.iac.rm.cnr.it/T2DM .

Non-attendance at diabetes outpatient appointments: a systematic review

BACKGROUND

Non-attendance at diabetes outpatient appointments is a sizeable problem worldwide and has been associated with suboptimal health outcomes. We aimed to describe the characteristics, health outcomes and reasons given for non-attendance at doctor- or nurse-led diabetes appointments, and interventions to improve attendance.

METHODS

PubMed, EMBASE, CINAHL and PsychInfo were searched from database inception to February 2019. Included articles were peer-reviewed, published in English, related to adults or young people with type 1 or type 2 diabetes, and addressed one of the above aspects of non-attendance. Studies were excluded if reporting on other types of diabetes or reviewing attendance at structured education, retinal screening, paediatric, antenatal, podiatry or dietetic clinics.

RESULTS

Thirty-four studies of varied designs were identified (15 observational, 1 randomized control trial, 9 qualitative, 5 surveys, 4 service improvements). The definition of non-attendance varied. Younger adults, smokers and those with financial pressures were less likely to attend. Non-attendance was associated with higher HbA_1c ; other outcomes were varied but typically worse in non-attenders. Reasons for non-attendance in qualitative studies fell into three categories: balancing the costs and benefits of attendance, coping strategies, and the relationships between the person with diabetes and healthcare professionals. Interventions included appointment management strategies, service improvements, patient navigators and WebCam appointments.

CONCLUSIONS

Non-attendance is only partially explained by logistical issues. Qualitative studies suggest complex psychosocial factors are involved. Interventions have progressed from simple appointment reminders in an attempt to address some of the psycho-social determinants, but more work is needed to improve attendance.

Patient No-Show Prediction: A Systematic Literature Review

Nowadays, across the most important problems faced by health centers are those caused by the existence of patients who do not attend their appointments. Among others, these patients cause loss of revenue to the health centers and increase the patients’ waiting list. In order to tackle these problems, several scheduling systems have been developed. Many of them require predicting whether a patient will show up for an appointment. However, obtaining these estimates accurately is currently a challenging problem. In this work, a systematic review of the literature on predicting patient no-shows is conducted aiming at establishing the current state-of-the-art. Based on a systematic review following the PRISMA methodology, 50 articles were found and analyzed. Of these articles, 82% were published in the last 10 years and the most used technique was logistic regression. In addition, there is significant growth in the size of the databases used to build the classifiers. An important finding is that only two studies achieved an accuracy higher than the show rate. Moreover, a single study attained an area under the curve greater than the 0.9 value. These facts indicate the difficulty of this problem and the need for further research.

Prediction of hospital no-show appointments through artificial intelligence algorithms

BACKGROUND

No-shows, a major issue for healthcare centers, can be quite costly and disruptive. Capacity is wasted and expensive resources are underutilized. Numerous studies have shown that reducing uncancelled missed appointments can have a tremendous impact, improving efficiency, reducing costs and improving patient outcomes. Strategies involving machine learning and artificial intelligence could provide a solution.

OBJECTIVE

Use artificial intelligence to build a model that predicts no-shows for individual appointments.

DESIGN

Predictive modeling.

SETTING

Major tertiary care center.

PATIENTS AND METHODS

All historic outpatient clinic scheduling data in the electronic medical record for a one-year period between 01 January 2014 and 31 December 2014 were used to independently build predictive models with JRip and Hoeffding tree algorithms.

MAIN OUTCOME MEASURES

No show appointments.

SAMPLE SIZE

1 087 979 outpatient clinic appointments.

RESULTS

The no show rate was 11.3% (123 299). The most important information-gain ranking for predicting no-shows in descending order were history of no shows (0.3596), appointment location (0.0323), and specialty (0.025). The following had very low information-gain ranking: age, day of the week, slot description, time of appointment, gender and nationality. Both JRip and Hoeffding algorithms yielded a reasonable degrees of accuracy 76.44% and 77.13%, respectively, with area under the curve indices at acceptable discrimination power for JRip at 0.776 and at 0.861 with excellent discrimination for Hoeffding trees.

CONCLUSION

Appointments having high risk of no-shows can be predicted in real-time to set appropriate proactive interventions that reduce the negative impact of no-shows.

LIMITATIONS

Single center. Only one year of data.

CONFLICT OF INTEREST

None.

Artificial Intelligence in Musculoskeletal Imaging: Current Status and Future Directions

OBJECTIVE. The objective of this article is to show how artificial intelligence (AI) has impacted different components of the imaging value chain thus far as well as to describe its potential future uses. CONCLUSION. The use of AI has the potential to greatly enhance every component of the imaging value chain. From assessing the appropriateness of imaging orders to helping predict patients at risk for fracture, AI can increase the value that musculoskeletal imagers provide to their patients and to referring clinicians by improving image quality, patient centricity, imaging efficiency, and diagnostic accuracy.

Bayesian hierarchical vector autoregressive models for patient-level predictive modeling

Predicting health outcomes from longitudinal health histories is of central importance to healthcare. Observational healthcare databases such as patient diary databases provide a rich resource for patient-level predictive modeling. In this paper, we propose a Bayesian hierarchical vector autoregressive (VAR) model to predict medical and psychological conditions using multivariate time series data. Compared to the existing patient-specific predictive VAR models, our model demonstrated higher accuracy in predicting future observations in terms of both point and interval estimates due to the pooling effect of the hierarchical model specification. In addition, by adopting an elastic-net prior, our model offers greater interpretability about the associations between variables of interest on both the population level and the patient level, as well as between-patient heterogeneity. We apply the model to two examples: 1) predicting substance use craving, negative affect and tobacco use among college students, and 2) predicting functional somatic symptoms and psychological discomforts.

Artificial Intelligence for Diabetes Management and Decision Support: Literature Review

Background

Artificial intelligence methods in combination with the latest technologies, including medical devices, mobile computing, and sensor technologies, have the potential to enable the creation and delivery of better management services to deal with chronic diseases. One of the most lethal and prevalent chronic diseases is diabetes mellitus, which is characterized by dysfunction of glucose homeostasis.

Objective

The objective of this paper is to review recent efforts to use artificial intelligence techniques to assist in the management of diabetes, along with the associated challenges.

Methods

A review of the literature was conducted using PubMed and related bibliographic resources. Analyses of the literature from 2010 to 2018 yielded 1849 pertinent articles, of which we selected 141 for detailed review.

Results

We propose a functional taxonomy for diabetes management and artificial intelligence. Additionally, a detailed analysis of each subject category was performed using related key outcomes. This approach revealed that the experiments and studies reviewed yielded encouraging results.

Conclusions

We obtained evidence of an acceleration of research activity aimed at developing artificial intelligence-powered tools for prediction and prevention of complications associated with diabetes. Our results indicate that artificial intelligence methods are being progressively established as suitable for use in clinical daily practice, as well as for the self-management of diabetes. Consequently, these methods provide powerful tools for improving patients’ quality of life.

Machine Learning in Radiology: Applications Beyond Image Interpretation

Much attention has been given to machine learning and its perceived impact in radiology, particularly in light of recent success with image classification in international competitions. However, machine learning is likely to impact radiology outside of image interpretation long before a fully functional "machine radiologist" is implemented in practice. Here, we describe an overview of machine learning, its application to radiology and other domains, and many cases of use that do not involve image interpretation. We hope that better understanding of these potential applications will help radiology practices prepare for the future and realize performance improvement and efficiency gains.