Novel nomograms to predict lymph node metastasis and liver metastasis in patients with early colon carcinoma

Nomogram predicting survival in patients with lymph node-negative hepatocellular carcinoma based on the SEER database and external validation

BACKGROUND

The relationship between lymph node (LN) status and survival outcome in hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) is a highly controversial topic. The aim of this study was to investigate the prognostic factors in patients without LN metastasis (LNM) and to construct a nomogram to predict cancer-specific survival (CSS) in this group of patients.

METHODS

We screened 6840 eligible HCC patients in the Surveillance, Epidemiology and End Results（SEER）database between 2010 and 2019 and randomized them into a training cohort and an internal validation cohort, and recruited 160 patients from Zhongnan Hospital of Wuhan University as an external validation cohort. Independent prognostic factors obtained from univariate and multivariate analysis were used to construct a nomogram prediction model. The concordance index (C-index), area under curve (AUC), calibration plots and decision curve analysis (DCA) were used to assess the predictive power and clinical application of the model.

RESULTS

Univariate and multivariate analysis revealed age, gender, bone metastasis, lung metastasis, AFP, T stage, surgery and chemotherapy as independent prognostic factors. The C-index of the constructed nomogram for the training cohort, internal validation cohort and external validation cohort are 0.746, 0.740, and 0.777, respectively. In the training cohort, the AUC at 1-, 3-, and 5-year were 0.81, 0.800, and 0.800, respectively. Calibration curves showed great agreement between the actual observations and predictions for the three cohorts. The DCA results suggest that the nomogram model has more clinical application potential.

CONCLUSION

We constructed a nomogram to predict CSS in HCC patients without LNM. The model has been internally and externally validated to have excellent predictive performance and can help clinicians determine prognosis and make treatment decisions.

Unveiling the best predictive models for early‑onset metastatic cancer: Insights and innovations (Review)

Cancer metastasis is the primary cause of cancer deaths. Metastasis involves the spread of cancer cells from the primary tumors to other body parts, commonly through lymphatic and vascular pathways. Key aspects include the high mutation rate and the capability of metastatic cells to form invasive tumors even without a large initial tumor mass. Particular emphasis is given to early metastasis, occurring in initial cancer stages and often leading to misdiagnosis, which adversely affects survival and prognosis. The present review highlighted the need for improved understanding and detection methods for early metastasis, which has not been effectively identified clinically. The present review demonstrated the clinicopathological and molecular characteristics of early‑onset metastatic types of cancer, noting factors such as age, race, tumor size and location as well as the histological and pathological grade as significant predictors. In conclusion, the present review underscored the importance of early detection and management of metastatic types of cancer and called for improved predictive models, including advanced techniques such as nomograms and machine learning, so as to enhance patient outcomes, acknowledging the challenges and limitations of the current research as well as the necessity for further studies.

Predictive modeling algorithms for liver metastasis in colorectal cancer: A systematic review of the current literature

This study aims to assess the quality and performance of predictive models for colorectal cancer liver metastasis (CRCLM). A systematic review was performed to identify relevant studies from various databases. Studies that described or validated predictive models for CRCLM were included. The methodological quality of the predictive models was assessed. Model performance was evaluated by the reported area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (AUC). Of the 117 articles screened, seven studies comprising 14 predictive models were included. The distribution of included predictive models was as follows: radiomics (n = 3), logistic regression (n = 3), Cox regression (n = 2), nomogram (n = 3), support vector machine (SVM, n = 2), random forest (n = 2), and convolutional neural network (CNN, n = 2). Age, sex, carcinoembryonic antigen, and tumor staging (T and N stage) were the most frequently used clinicopathological predictors for CRCLM. The mean AUCs ranged from 0.697 to 0.870, with 86% of the models demonstrating clear discriminative ability (AUC > 0.70). A hybrid approach combining clinical and radiomic features with SVM provided the best performance, achieving an AUC of 0.870. The overall risk of bias was identified as high in 71% of the included studies. This review highlights the potential of predictive modeling to accurately predict the occurrence of CRCLM. Integrating clinicopathological and radiomic features with machine learning algorithms demonstrates superior predictive capabilities.

A nomogram for predicting liver metastasis in patients with gastric gastrointestinal stromal tumor

BACKGROUND

Liver metastasis (LIM) is an important factor in the diagnosis, treatment, follow-up, and prognosis of patients with gastric gastrointestinal stromal tumor (GIST). There is no simple tool to assess the risk of LIM in patients with gastric GIST. Our aim was to develop and validate a nomogram to identify patients with gastric GIST at high risk of LIM.

METHODS

Patient data diagnosed as having gastric GIST between 2010 and 2019 were extracted from the Surveillance, Epidemiology, and End Results (SEER) database and randomly divided into training cohort and internal validation cohort in a 7:3 ratio. For external validation, retrospective data collection was performed on patients diagnosed as having gastric GIST at Yunnan Cancer Center (YNCC) between January 2015 and May 2023. Univariate and multivariate logistic regression analyses were used to identify independent risk factors associated with LIM in patients with gastric GIST. An individualized LIM nomogram specific for gastric GIST was formulated based on the multivariate logistic model; its discriminative performance, calibration, and clinical utility were evaluated.

RESULTS

In the SEER database, a cohort of 2341 patients with gastric GIST was analyzed, of which 173 cases (7.39%) were found to have LIM; 239 patients with gastric GIST from the YNCC database were included, of which 25 (10.46%) had LIM. Multivariate analysis showed tumor size, tumor site, and sex were independent risk factors for LIM (P < .05). The nomogram based on the basic clinical characteristics of tumor size, tumor site, sex, and age demonstrated significant discrimination, with an area under the curve of 0.753 (95% CI, 0.692-0.814) and 0.836 (95% CI, 0.743-0.930) in the internal and external validation cohort, respectively. The Hosmer-Lemeshow test showed that the nomogram was well calibrated, whereas the decision curve analysis and the clinical impact plot demonstrated its clinical utility.

CONCLUSIONS

Tumor size, tumor subsite, and sex were significantly correlated with the risk of LIM in gastric GIST. The nomogram for patients with GIST can effectively predict the individualized risk of LIM and contribute to the planning and decision making related to metastasis management in clinical practice.

Lymph Node Molecular Analysis with OSNA Enables the Identification of pT1 CRC Patients at Risk of Recurrence: A Multicentre Study

Early-stage colorectal carcinoma (CRC)-pT1-is a therapeutic challenge and presents some histological features related to lymph node metastasis (LNM). A significant proportion of pT1 CRCs are treated surgically, resulting in a non-negligible surgical-associated mortality rate of 1.5-2%. Among these cases, approximately 6-16% exhibit LNM, but the impact on survival is unclear. Therefore, there is an unmet need to establish an objective and reliable lymph node (LN) staging method to optimise the therapeutic management of pT1 CRC patients and to avoid overtreating or undertreating them. In this multicentre study, 89 patients with pT1 CRC were included. All histological features associated with LNM were evaluated. LNs were assessed using two methods, One-Step Nucleic Acid Amplification (OSNA) and the conventional FFPE plus haematoxylin and eosin (H&E) staining. OSNA is an RT-PCR-based method for amplifying CK19 mRNA. Our aim was to assess the performance of OSNA and H&E in evaluating LNs to identify patients at risk of recurrence and to optimise their clinical management. We observed an 80.9% concordance in LN assessment using the two methods. In 9% of cases, LNs were found to be positive using H&E, and in 24.7% of cases, LNs were found to be positive using OSNA. The OSNA results are provided as the total tumour load (TTL), defined as the total tumour burden present in all the LNs of a surgical specimen. In CRC, a TTL ≥ 6000 CK19 m-RNA copies/µL is associated with poor prognosis. Three patients had TTL > 6000 copies/μL, which was associated with higher tumour budding. The discrepancies observed between the OSNA and H&E results were mostly attributed to tumour allocation bias. We concluded that LN assessment with OSNA enables the identification of pT1 CRC patients at some risk of recurrence and helps to optimise their clinical management.

Multimodality deep learning radiomics nomogram for preoperative prediction of malignancy of breast cancer: a multicenter study

Background. Breast cancer is the most prevalent cancer diagnosed in women worldwide. Accurately and efficiently stratifying the risk is an essential step in achieving precision medicine prior to treatment. This study aimed to construct and validate a nomogram based on radiomics and deep learning for preoperative prediction of the malignancy of breast cancer (MBC).Methods. The clinical and ultrasound imaging data, including brightness mode (B-mode) and color Doppler flow imaging, of 611 breast cancer patients from multiple hospitals in China were retrospectively analyzed. Patients were divided into one primary cohort (PC), one validation cohort (VC) and two test cohorts (TC1 and TC2). A multimodality deep learning radiomics nomogram (DLRN) was constructed for predicting the MBC. The performance of the proposed DLRN was comprehensively assessed and compared with three unimodal models via the calibration curve, the area under the curve (AUC) of receiver operating characteristics and the decision curve analysis.Results. The DLRN discriminated well between the MBC in all cohorts [overall AUC (95% confidence interval): 0.983 (0.973-0.993), 0.972 (0.952-0.993), 0.897 (0.823-0.971), and 0.993 (0.977-1.000) on the PC, VC, test cohorts1 (TC1) and test cohorts2 TC2 respectively]. In addition, the DLRN performed significantly better than three unimodal models and had good clinical utility.Conclusion. The DLRN demonstrates good discriminatory ability in the preoperative prediction of MBC, can better reveal the potential associations between clinical characteristics, ultrasound imaging features and disease pathology, and can facilitate the development of computer-aided diagnosis systems for breast cancer patients. Our code is available publicly in the repository athttps://github.com/wupeiyan/MDLRN.

A New Online Dynamic Nomogram: Construction and Validation of a Predictive Model for Distant Metastasis Risk and Prognosis in Patients with Gastrointestinal Stromal Tumors

BACKGROUND

Gastrointestinal stromal tumor (GIST) is the most common sarcoma of the digestive tract, among which patients with distant metastases tend to have a poor prognosis. This study aimed to develop a model for predicting distant metastasis in GIST patients and to develop two models for monitoring overall survival (OS) and cancer-specific survival (CSS) in GIST patients with metastasis. This would allow us to develop an optimal, individualized treatment strategy.

METHODS

We reviewed demographic and clinicopathological characteristics data from 2010 to 2017 of patients diagnosed with GIST in the Surveillance, Epidemiology, and End Results (SEER) database. The data of the external validation group was reviewed from the Forth Hospital of Hebei Medical University. Univariate and multivariate logistic regression analyses were used to confirm the independent risk factors for distant metastasis in the GIST patients, and univariate and multivariate Cox regression analyses were performed to identify the independent prognostic factors for OS and CSS in the GIST patients with distant metastasis. Subsequently, three web-based novel nomograms were developed, which were evaluated by the receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curves, calibration curves, and decision curve analysis (DCA).

RESULTS

Of the 3639 patients who met the inclusion criteria, 418 (11.4%) had distant metastases. The risk factors for distant metastasis in GIST patients included sex, primary site, grade, N stage, tumor size, and mitotic count. For OS, the independent prognosis factors for GIST patients with metastasis included age, race, marital, primary site, chemotherapy, mitotic count, and metastasis at the lung, and for CSS, age, race, marital, primary site, and metastasis at the lung were the independent prognosis factors. Three web-based nomograms were constructed based on these independent factors, respectively. The ROC curves, calibration curves, and DCA were performed in the training, testing, and validation sets which confirmed the high accuracy and strong clinical practice power for the nomograms.

CONCLUSION

Population-based nomograms can help clinicians predict the occurrence and prognosis of distant metastases in patients with GIST, which may be helpful for clinicians to formulate clinical management and appropriate treatment strategies.

Construction and validation of a nomogram of risk factors and cancer-specific survival prognosis for combined lymphatic metastases in patients with early-onset colorectal cancer

PURPOSE

This study aimed to investigate the risk and prognostic factors of lymph node metastasis (LNM) in early-onset colorectal cancer (EO-CRC) and to develop nomograms for quantitatively predicting LNM and the cancer-specific survival (CSS).

METHODS

A total of 22,405 EO-CRC patients were included in this study using the SEER database from 2010 to 2017. Logistic and Cox regression were used to identify risk and the potential prognostic factors, respectively, for EO-CRC with LNM. Subsequently, nomograms regarding the risk of LNM in EO-CRC patients and its corresponding CSS were constructed based on these factors. The discriminative ability, calibration and clinical usefulness of the nomograms were assessed by the area under the receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curves (AUC), calibration curves, and decision curve analysis (DCA).

RESULTS

T-stage and pathological grade were the most represented factors in the predicted LNM nomogram, while histological type and combined distant metastases were the most represented in the nomogram for CSS in EO-CRC patients with LNM (all P < 0.05). The nomogram constructed based on the prognostic factors screened by Cox regression had good performance with C-index of 0.807 and 0.802 for the training and validation cohorts, respectively. The calibration curve showed that the nomograms' predictions were in line with actual observations. Additionally, the ROC curves indicated good discrimination, and the DCA curves implied significant clinical utility of the nomograms.

CONCLUSION

The nomograms we constructed have significant performance in predicting the incidence and prognosis of LNM in EO-CRC patients, which may help clinicians to make better treatment decision making.

Prediction models for overall and cancer-specific survival in patients with metastatic early-onset colorectal cancer: a population-based study

PURPOSE

Metastatic early-onset colorectal cancer (EO-CRC) is on the rise, yet there is a dearth of predictive models for this disease. Therefore, it is crucial to develop a nomogram to aid in the early detection and management of metastatic colorectal cancer in young patients.

METHODS

We retrieved data from the SEER database on patients with metastatic colorectal cancer aged 50 or younger between 2010 and 2017. The data were randomly allocated in a 7:3 ratio to training and validation cohorts, and univariate and multivariate Cox regression analyses were used to identify independent prognostic factors for overall survival (OS) and cancer-specific survival (CSS) at 1, 3, and 5 years. The nomograms were developed based on these factors, and their discriminatory and calibration capabilities were validated. Using the nomogram risk scores, patients were stratified into low-risk and high-risk groups.

RESULTS

The study included 2470 patients with metastatic EO-CRC. Univariate and multivariate Cox regression analysis identified 12 independent risk factors that were included in the nomogram. The training cohort had a consistency index (C-index) of 0.71, while the validation cohort had a C-index of 0.70, demonstrating good predictive accuracy. Calibration plots showed a high level of consistency between the observed and predicted values, with overlapping plots along the diagonal. The decision curve analysis (DCA) revealed that the nomogram had a high clinical application value.

CONCLUSIONS

The novel nomograms were created to predict the prognosis of patients with metastatic EO-CRC, which can aid clinicians in developing more effective treatment strategies and contribute to more accurate prognostic assessments.

A novel potential inflammation-nutrition biomarker for predicting lymph node metastasis in clinically node-negative colon cancer

Background

The purpose of this study is to investigate the predictive significance of (platelet × albumin)/lymphocyte ratio (PALR) for lymph node metastasis (LNM) in patients with clinically node-negative colon cancer (cN0 CC).

Methods

Data from 800 patients with primary CC who underwent radical surgery between March 2016 and June 2021 were reviewed. The non-linear relationship between PALR and the risk of LNM was explored using a restricted cubic spline (RCS) function while a receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curve was developed to determine the predictive value of PALR. Patients were categorized into high- and low-PALR cohorts according to the optimum cut-off values derived from Youden's index. Univariate and multivariate logistic regression analyses were used to identify the independent indicators of LNM. Sensitivity analysis was performed to repeat the main analyses with the quartile of PALR.

Results

A total of eligible 269 patients with primary cN0 CC were retrospectively selected. The value of the area under the ROC curve for PALR for predicting LNM was 0.607. RCS visualized the uptrend linear relationship between PALR and the risk of LNM (p-value for non-linearity > 0.05). PALR (odds ratio = 2.118, 95% confidence interval, 1.182-3.786, p = 0.011) was identified as an independent predictor of LNM in patients with cN0 CC. A nomogram incorporating PALR and other independent predictors was constructed with an internally validated concordance index of 0.637. The results of calibration plots and decision curve analysis supported a good performance ability and the sensitivity analysis further confirmed the robustness of our findings.

Conclusion

PALR has promising clinical applications for predicting LNM in patients with cN0 CC.

Nomograms and scoring system for forecasting overall and cancer-specific survival of patients with prostate cancer

BACKGROUND

Estimated life expectancy is one of the most important factors in determining treatment options for prostate cancer (PCa) patients. However, clinicians have few effective prognostic tools to individually assess survival in patients with PCa.

METHODS

We screened 283,252 patients diagnosed with PCa from the Surveillance, Epidemiology, and End Results (SEER) database between 2004 and 2015, and randomly divided them into the training and validation groups. We used univariate and multivariate Cox analyses to identify independent prognostic factors and further established nomograms to predict 1-, 3-, 5-, and 10-year overall survival (OS) and cancer-specific survival (CSS) for PCa patients. The prediction performance of nomograms was tested and externally validated by Concordance index (C-index) and receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curve. Calibration curve and decision curve analysis (DCA) were used for internal validation. We further developed PCa prognostic scoring system based on the impact of available variables on survival.

RESULTS

The variables age, race, marital status, TNM stage, surgery method, radiotherapy, chemotherapy, PSA value, and Gleason score identified as independent prognostic factors were included in the survival nomograms. The results of training (C-index: OS = 0.776, CSS = 0.889; AUC value: OS = 0.772-0.802, CSS = 0.892-0.936) and external validation (C-index: OS = 0.759, CSS = 0.875) indicated our nomograms had good performance in predicting 1-, 3-, 5-, and 10-year OS and CSS prediction. Internal validation using the calibration curves and DCA curves demonstrated the effectiveness of the prediction models. The prognostic scoring system was more effective than the AJCC staging system in predicting the survival of PCa patients, especially for OS.

CONCLUSION

The prognostic nomograms and prognostic scoring system have favorable performance in predicting OS and CSS of PCa patients. These individualized survival prediction tools may contribute to clinical decisions.

A novel ferroptosis-related long noncoding RNA signature for relapse free survival prediction in patients with breast cancer

Ferroptosis is the process of cell death dependent on iron. Growing evidence suggests that ferroptosis plays vital roles in the biological process of many cancers. However, just a small number of ferroptosis-related lncRNAs have been explored in depth. Ferroptosis-related lncRNAs in breast cancer (BC) were identified by co-expression analysis based on The Cancer Genome Atlas database (TCGA). The whole set was divided into a training set and a test set with a 1:1 ratio. Univariate Cox regression and LASSO analyses were performed to establish a signature in the 3 sets. Kaplan-Meier analysis and receiver operating characteristic (ROC) for the 3 sets validated the effectiveness and robustness of the signature. Besides, we also explore the relationship between this and clinical characteristics, immune cell infiltration and tumor microenvironment. Meanwhile, the nomogram was drawn by screening indicators of independent recurrent prediction. Finally, we evaluated the relationships between the signature and tumor microenvironment. We identified 391 ferroptosis-related lncRNAs and constructed a 5 lncRNAs-based signature in the training, test, and whole sets, stratifying patients into high-risk and low-risk groups. According to survival analysis, patients in the high-risk groups had worse relapse free survival (RFS) compared to the low risk-groups. The ROC curves indicated that the recurrent signature had a promising predictive capability for BC patients. Moreover, an independent factors-based nomogram model could offer the quantitative prediction and net benefit for the recurrence of BC patients. Finally, the microenvironment, including tumor mutational burden (TMB), immune cell functions and immune checkpoints, showed big differences between the 2 groups. The 5 ferroptosis-related lncRNAs and their signature might be novel promising biomarkers and immunotherapy targets for patients with BC.

Development and external validation of prognostic nomograms for liver disease-free and overall survival in locally advanced rectal cancer with neoadjuvant therapy: a post cohort study based on the FOWARC trial

Background

There is still a lack of nomograms that can accurately predict liver metastasis and poor prognosis after neoadjuvant therapy for locally advanced rectal cancer (LARC). Effective nomograms may help clinicians better identify LARC patients with potential high-risk risks, so as to carry out more targeted monitoring, treatment and follow-up.

Methods

The nomograms were based on the FOWARC trial (NCT01211210), which included 302 LARC patients who underwent neoadjuvant treatment before surgery at the Sixth Affiliated Hospital of Sun Yat-sen University from 2011 to 2014. The predictive accuracy and discriminative ability of the nomograms were determined by the concordance index (C-index) and calibration curve. The results were validated using bootstrap resampling and a prospective study on 100 patients in 2017.

Results

The 3-year liver disease-free survival (LDFS) rate after neoadjuvant treatment for LARC was 91.65% (training cohort 92.22%, validation cohort 90.01%). Factors associated with LDFS were hepatitis B virus (HBV) infection, anemia, lymph node number, postoperative T stage and tumor nodule, which were all included in the nomogram for LDFS. The C-indies of the nomogram for LDFS were 0.828 and 0.845 in the training and validation cohorts. The 3-year overall survival (OS) rate was 94.14% (training cohort 94.13%, validation cohort 94.05%). Factors in the nomogram for OS were mesorectal fascia involvement (MRF), postoperative N stage, pathological differentiation, tumor nodule and neural invasion. The C-indies of the nomogram for predicting OS were 0.73 and 0.774 in the training and validation cohorts. The calibration curve for the survival probability showed good agreement between the nomogram predictions and the actual observations.

Conclusions

The nomograms established in this study can effectively predict LDFS and has good clinical application potential for OS in LARC patients treated with neoadjuvant therapy.

A web-based prognostic nomogram for the cancer specific survival of elderly patients with T1-T3N0M0 renal pelvic transitional cell carcinoma based on the surveillance, epidemiology, and end results database

Background

At present, there are few studies on renal pelvic transitional cell carcinoma (RPTCC) in elderly patients in the literature. The study aims to establish a new nomogram of cancer-specific survival (CSS) in elderly patients with T1-T3N0M0 RPTCC and validate its reliability.

Methods

This study downloaded the data of 1375 elderly patients with T1-T3N0M0 RPTCC in the Surveillance, Epidemiology, and Final Results (SEER) database from 2004 to 2018. Patients were randomly divided into training cohort (n = 977) and validation cohort (n = 398). Proportional subdistribution hazard analyse was applied to determine independent prognostic factors. Based on these factors, we constructed a compting risk model nomogram. We use the calibration plots, the area under the receiver operating characteristics curve (AUC), concordance index (C-index), and decision curve analysis (DCA) to validate predictive performance and clinical applicability. Patients were divided into low-risk group and high-risk group based on nomogram risk score. Kaplan–Meier curve was applied to analyze the difference in survival curve between the two groups of patients.

Results

We found that the risk factors affecting CSS in elderly patients with T1-T3N0M0 RPTCC are surgery, AJCC stage, laterality, tumor size, histological grade, and tumour laterality. Based on these factors, we established a nomogram to predict the CSS of RPTCC patients at 1-, 3-, and 5-year. The calibration plots showed that the predicted value was highly consistent with the observed value. In the training cohort and validation cohort, the C-index of the nomogram were 0.671(95% CI 0.622–0.72) and 0.679(95% CI 0.608–0.750), respectively, the AUC showed similar results. The DCA suggests that namogram performs better than the AJCC stage system. The Kaplan–Meier curve showed that CSS of patients was significantly higher in the low-risk group.

Conclusions

In this study, the SEER database was used for the first time to create and validate a new nomogram prediction model for elderly patients with T1-T3N0M0 RPTCC. Compared with the traditional AJCC stage system, our new nomogram can more accurately predict the CSS of elderly patients with T1-T3N0M0 RPTCC, which is helpful for patient prognosis assessment and treatment strategies selection.

Supplementary Information

The online version contains supplementary material available at 10.1186/s12894-022-01028-1.

A Web-Based Prediction Model for Overall Survival of Elderly Patients With Malignant Bone Tumors: A Population-Based Study

Background: Malignant bone tumors (MBT) are one of the causes of death in elderly patients. The purpose of our study is to establish a nomogram to predict the overall survival (OS) of elderly patients with MBT.

Methods: The clinicopathological data of all elderly patients with MBT from 2004 to 2018 were downloaded from the SEER database. They were randomly assigned to the training set (70%) and validation set (30%). Univariate and multivariate Cox regression analysis was used to identify independent risk factors for elderly patients with MBT. A nomogram was built based on these risk factors to predict the 1-, 3-, and 5-year OS of elderly patients with MBT. Then, used the consistency index (C-index), calibration curve, and the area under the receiver operating curve (AUC) to evaluate the accuracy and discrimination of the prediction model was. Decision curve analysis (DCA) was used to assess the clinical potential application value of the nomogram. Based on the scores on the nomogram, patients were divided into high- and low-risk groups. The Kaplan-Meier (K-M) curve was used to test the difference in survival between the two patients.

Results: A total of 1,641 patients were included, and they were randomly assigned to the training set (N = 1,156) and the validation set (N = 485). The univariate and multivariate analysis of the training set suggested that age, sex, race, primary site, histologic type, grade, stage, M stage, surgery, and tumor size were independent risk factors for elderly patients with MBT. The C-index of the training set and the validation set were 0.779 [0.759–0.799] and 0.801 [0.772–0.830], respectively. The AUC of the training and validation sets also showed similar results. The calibration curves of the training and validation sets indicated that the observed and predicted values were highly consistent. DCA suggested that the nomogram had potential clinical value compared with traditional TNM staging.

Conclusion: We had established a new nomogram to predict the 1-, 3-, 5-year OS of elderly patients with MBT. This predictive model can help doctors and patients develop treatment plans and follow-up strategies.

A Nomogram for Predicting Cancer-Specific Survival in Children With Wilms Tumor: A Study Based on SEER Database and External Validation in China

Background

Wilms tumor (WT) is the most common tumor in children. We aim to construct a nomogram to predict the cancer-specific survival (CSS) of WT in children and externally validate in China.

Methods

We downloaded the clinicopathological data of children with WT from 2004 to 2018 in the SEER database. At the same time, we used the clinicopathological data collected previously for all children with WT between 2013 and 2018 at Children's Hospital of Chongqing Medical University (Chongqing, China). We analyzed the difference in survival between the patients in the SEER database and our hospital. Cox regression analysis was used to screen for significant risk factors. Based on these factors, a nomogram was constructed to predict the CSS of children with WT. Calibration curve, concordance index (C-index), the area under the receiver operating curve (AUC) and decision curve analysis (DCA) was used to evaluate the accuracy and reliability of the model.

Results

We included 1,045 children with WT in the SEER database. At the same time, we collected 112 children with WT in our hospital. The Kaplan-Meier curve suggested that children in China with WT had a higher mortality rate than those in the United States. Cox regression analysis revealed that age, lymph node density (LND), and tumor stage were significant prognostic factors for the patients in the SEER database. However, the patients in our hospital only confirmed that the tumor stage and the number of positive regional lymph nodes were significant factors. The prediction model established by the SEER database had been validated internally and externally to prove that it had good accuracy and reliability.

Conclusion

We have constructed a survival prognosis prediction model for children with WT, which has been validated internally and externally to prove accuracy and reliability.

A Web-Based Prediction Model for Cancer-Specific Survival of Middle-Aged Patients With Non-metastatic Renal Cell Carcinoma: A Population-Based Study

Background

Renal cell carcinoma (RCC) is one of the most common cancers in middle-aged patients. We aimed to establish a new nomogram for predicting cancer-specific survival (CSS) in middle-aged patients with non-metastatic renal cell carcinoma (nmRCC).

Methods

The clinicopathological information of all patients from 2010 to 2018 was downloaded from the SEER database. These patients were randomly assigned to the training set (70%) and validation set (30%). Univariate and multivariate COX regression analyses were used to identify independent risk factors for CSS in middle-aged patients with nmRCC in the training set. Based on these independent risk factors, a new nomogram was constructed to predict 1-, 3-, and 5-year CSS in middle-aged patients with nmRCC. Then, we used the consistency index (C-index), calibration curve, and area under receiver operating curve (AUC) to validate the accuracy and discrimination of the model. Decision curve analysis (DCA) was used to validate the clinical application value of the model.

Results

A total of 27,073 patients were included in the study. These patients were randomly divided into a training set (N = 18,990) and a validation set (N = 8,083). In the training set, univariate and multivariate Cox regression analysis indicated that age, sex, histological tumor grade, T stage, tumor size, and surgical method are independent risk factors for CSS of patients. A new nomogram was constructed to predict patients' 1-, 3-, and 5-year CSS. The C-index of the training set and validation set were 0.818 (95% CI: 0.802-0.834) and 0.802 (95% CI: 0.777-0.827), respectively. The 1 -, 3 -, and 5-year AUC for the training and validation set ranged from 77.7 to 80.0. The calibration curves of the training set and the validation set indicated that the predicted value is highly consistent with the actual observation value, indicating that the model has good accuracy. DCA also suggested that the model has potential clinical application value.

Conclusion

We found that independent risk factors for CSS in middle-aged patients with nmRCC were age, sex, histological tumor grade, T stage, tumor size, and surgery. We have constructed a new nomogram to predict the CSS of middle-aged patients with nmRCC. This model has good accuracy and reliability and can assist doctors and patients in clinical decision making.

A web-based prediction model for overall survival of elderly patients with early renal cell carcinoma: a population-based study

Background

The number of elderly patients with early renal cell carcinoma (RCC) is on the rise. However, there is still a lack of accurate prediction models for the prognosis of early RCC in elderly patients. It is necessary to establish a new nomogram to predict the prognosis of elderly patients with early RCC.

Methods

The data of patients aged above 65 years old with TNM stage I and II RCC were downloaded from the SEER database between 2010 and 2018. The patients from 2010 to 2017 were randomly assigned to the training cohort (n = 7233) and validation cohort (n = 3024). Patient data in 2018(n = 1360) was used for external validation. We used univariable and multivariable Cox regression model to evaluate independent prognostic factors and constructed a nomogram to predict the 1-, 3-, and 5-year overall survival (OS) rates of patients with early-stage RCC. Multiple parameters were used to validate the nomogram, including the consistency index (C-index), the calibration plots, the area under the receiver operator characteristics (ROC) curve, and the decision curve analysis (DCA).

Results

The study included a total of 11,617 elderly patients with early RCC. univariable and multivariable Cox regression analysis based on predictive variables such as age, sex, histologic type, Fuhrman grade, T stage, surgery type, tumors number, tumor size, and marriage were included to establish a nomogram. The C-index of the training cohort and validation cohort were 0.748 (95% CI: 0.760–0.736) and 0.744 (95% CI: 0.762–0.726), respectively. In the external validation cohort, C-index was 0.893 (95% CI: 0.928–0.858). The calibration plots basically coincides with the diagonal, indicating that the observed OS was almost equal to the predicted OS. It was shown in DCA that the nomogram has more important clinical significance than the traditional TNM stage.

Conclusion

A novel nomogram was developed to assess the prognosis of an elderly patient with early RCC and to predict prognosis and formulate treatment and follow-up strategies.

Establishment and validation of a novel predictive model to quantify the risk of bone metastasis in patients with prostate cancer

Background

Patients with prostate cancer (PCa) commonly suffer from bone metastasis during disease progression. This study aims to construct and validate a nomogram to quantify bone metastasis risk in patients with PCa.

Methods

Clinicopathological data of patients diagnosed with PCa between 2010 and 2015 were retrospectively retrieved from the Surveillance, Epidemiology, and End Results (SEER) database. Predictors for bone metastasis were identified by logistic regression analyses to establish a nomogram. The concordance index (c-index) and calibration plots were generated to assess the nomogram’s discrimination, and the area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (AUC) was used to compare the precision of the nomogram with routine staging systems. The nomogram’s clinical performance was evaluated by decision curve analysis (DCA) and clinical impact curves (CIC). Independent prognostic factors were identified by Cox regression analysis.

Results

A total of 168,414 eligible cases were randomly assigned to the training cohort or validation cohort at a ratio of 1:1. The nomogram, which was established based on independent factors, showed good accuracy, with c-indexes of 0.911 in the training set and 0.910 in the validation set. Calibration plots also approached 45 degrees. After other distant metastatic sites were included in the predictive model, the new nomogram displayed superior prediction performance. The AUCs and net benefit of the nomograms were both higher than those of other routine staging systems. Furthermore, bone metastasis prediction points were shown to be a new risk factor for overall survival.

Conclusions

Novel validated nomograms can effectively predict the risk of bone metastasis in patients with PCa and help clinicians improve cancer management.

BGN and COL11A1 Regulatory Network Analysis in Colorectal Cancer (CRC) Reveals That BGN Influences CRC Cell Biological Functions and Interacts with miR-6828-5p

Purpose

We explored specific expression profiles of BGN and COL11A1 genes and studied their biological functions in CRC using bioinformatics tools.

Patients and Methods

A total of 68 pairs of cancer and non-cancerous tissues from CRC patients were enrolled in this study. Methods we used in this articles including: qRT-PCR, Western blot analysis, ELISA, GO and KEGG regulatory network analysis, tumor infiltration, luciferase reporter-based protein and etc.

Results

According to The Cancer Genome Atlas (TCGA) data, BGN and COL11A1 expression levels were significantly higher in CRC patient samples than in samples from healthy controls. Moreover, levels were much higher in late-stage CRC than in early-stage disease, warranting evaluation of these genes as CRC prognostic biomarkers. Subsequently, qRT-PCR, Western blot analysis, and ELISA results obtained from analyses of CRC cells, tissues, and patient sera aligned with TCGA results. GO and KEGG regulatory network analysis revealed BGN- and COL11A1-associated genes that were functionally related to extracellular matrix (ECM) receptor pathway activation, with transcription factor genes RELA and NFKB1 positively associated with BGN expression and CEBPZ and SIRT1 with COL11A1 expression. Meanwhile, BGN and COL11A1 expression were separately and significantly correlated to tumor infiltration by six immune cell types. Additionally, kinase genes PLK1 and LYN appeared to be downstream targets of differentially expressed BGN and COL11A1, respectively. In addition, the expression of PLK1 mRNA was down-regulated while BGN was down-regulated. Finally, BGN effects on CRC cell proliferation, cycle, apoptosis, invasion, and migration were studied using molecular biological methods, including luciferase reporter-based protein analysis, qRT-PCR, and Western blot results, which revealed that miR-6828-5p may regulate BGN expression.

Conclusion

We speculate that the use of BGN and COL11A1 as CRC biomarkers would improve CRC staging, while also providing several novel targets for use in the development of more effective CRC treatments.

A novel nomogram for predicting liver metastasis in patients with gastrointestinal stromal tumor: a SEER-based study

Background

Liver metastasis (LIM) of gastrointestinal stromal tumor (GIST) is associated with poor prognosis. The present study aimed at developing and validating nomogram to predict LIM in patients with GIST, thus helping clinical diagnosis and treatment.

Methods

The data of GIST patients derived from Surveillance, Epidemiology, and End Results (SEER) database from 2010 to 2016, which were then screened by univariate and multivariate logistic regression for the construction of LIM nomogram. The model discrimination of LIM nomogram was evaluated by concordance index (C-index) and calibration plots, while the predictive accuracy and clinical values were measured by decision curve analysis (DCA) and clinical impact plot. Furthermore, we validated predictive nomogram in the internal testing set.

Results

A total of 3797 patients were enrolled and divided randomly into training and validating groups in a 3-to-1 ratio. After logistic regression, the significant variables were sex, tumor location, tumor size, N stage and mitotic rate. The calibration curves showed the perfect agreement between nomogram predictions and actual observations, while the DCA and clinical impact plot showed the clinical utility of LIM nomogram. C-index of the nomogram was 0.812. What’s more, receiver operating characteristic curves (ROC) also showed good discrimination and calibration in the training set (AUC = 0.794, 95% CI 0.778–0.808) and the testing set (AUC = 0.775, 95% CI 0.748–0.802).

Conclusion

The nomogram for patients with GIST can effectively predict the individualized risk of liver metastasis and provide insightful information to clinicians to optimize therapeutic regimens.

A novel prognostic model for adult patients with Hemophagocytic Lymphohistiocytosis

BACKGROUND

Hemophagocytic Lymphohistiocytosis (HLH) is a type of rare disease with low survival rate. We aimed to develop a model to evaluate the six-month prognosis in adult HLH patients. The data at discharge (will be called as post-treatment) for newly diagnosed adult HLH patients was collected and independent prognostic variables were selected for inclusion in the model.

RESULTS

Three laboratory markers were confirmed to be the independent risk factors (ferritin: hazard ratio (HR) 0.101, 95% confidence interval (CI) 0.036-0.282, P<0.001; platelets: HR 4.799, 95% CI 1.884-12.223, P = 0.001; alanine aminotransferase (ALT): HR 0.423, 95% CI 0.180-0.997, P = 0.049). These were included in the final clinical prediction model. Receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curves disclosed that this model had a better discrimination (area under the curve (AUC) = 0.842, 95% CI 0.773-0.910, P < 0.001) than each of them alone and the calibration curves aligned completely with the model predictions and actual observations. Kaplan-Meier curves revealed a significant difference in the overall survival (OS) in patients stratified by the model with higher values associated with a better OS.

CONCLUSION

These results point out that serum ferritin, platelets and ALT levels are independent elements of OS in adult patients with HLH, and that the proposed model have a better prognostic value than any of these markers alone.

Survival nomogram for patients with metastatic siewert type II adenocarcinoma of the esophagogastric junction: a population-based study

BACKGROUND

The aim of this study was to construct a nomogram to predict the survival of patients with metastatic Siewert Type II adenocarcinomas of the esophagogastric junction (AEG).

METHODS

Patients were identified using the Surveillance, Epidemiology, and End Results (SEER) database. Cox regression analysis was performed to assess the prognostic factors. A nomogram comprising independent prognostic factors was established and evaluated using C-indexes, calibration curves, and decision curve analyses.

RESULTS

In total 1616 eligible patients were enrolled. Race, age, bone metastasis, liver metastasis, lung metastasis, other metastasis sites, and distant lymph nodes metastasis were independent prognostic factors and were integrated to construct the nomogram. The nomogram had a C-index of 0.590 (95% CI: 0.569-0.611) in the training cohort and 0.569 (95% CI: 0.532-0.606) in the validation cohort. The calibration plots for the probabilities of 6-month and 1-year overall survival demonstrated there was an optimum between nomogram prediction and actual observation.

CONCLUSION

We developed and validated a nomogram to predict individual prognosis for patients with metastatic Siewert Type II AEG, and the risk stratification system based on the nomogram could effectively stratify the patients into two risk subgroups, which can help clinicians accurately predict mortality risk and recommend personalized treatment modalities.

Risk factors and predictors of lymph nodes metastasis and distant metastasis in newly diagnosed T1 colorectal cancer

Background

Lymph nodes metastasis (LNM) and distant metastasis (DM) are important prognostic factors in colorectal cancer (CRC) and determine the following treatment approaches. We aimed to find clinicopathological factors associated with LNM and DM, and analyze the prognosis of CRC patients with T1 stage.

Methods

A total of 17 516 eligible patients with T1 CRC were retrospectively enrolled in the study based on the Surveillance, Epidemiology, and End Results (SEER) database during 2004‐2016. Logistic regression analysis was performed to identify risk factors for LNM and DM. Unadjusted and adjusted Cox proportional hazard models were used to identify prognostic factors for overall survival. We performed the cumulative incidence function (CIF) to further determine the prognostic role of LNM and DM in colorectal cancer‐specific death (CCSD). LNM, DM, and OS nomogram were constructed based on these models and evaluated by the C‐index and calibration plots for discrimination and accuracy, respectively. The clinical utility of the nomograms was measured by decision curve analyses (DCAs) and subgroups with different risk scores.

Results

Tumor grade, mucinous adenocarcinoma, and age accounted for the first three largest proportion among the LNM nomogram scores (all, P < .001), whereas N stage, carcinoembryonic antigen (CEA), and tumor size occupied the largest percentage in DM nomogram (all, P < .001). OS nomogram was formulated to visually to predict 3‐, 5‐, and 10‐ year overall survivals for patients with T1 CRC. The calibration curves showed an effectively predictive accuracy of prediction nomograms, of which the C‐index were 0.666, 0.874, and 0.760 for good discrimination, respectively. DCAs and risk subgroups revealed the clinical effectiveness of these nomograms.

Conclusions

Novel population‐based nomograms for T1 CRC patients could objectively and accurately predict the risk of LNM and DM, as well as OS for different stages. These predictive tools may help clinicians to make individual clinical decisions, before clinical management.

Integrated nomogram based on five stage-related genes and TNM stage to predict 1-year recurrence in hepatocellular carcinoma

Background

The primary tumor, regional lymph nodes and distant metastasis (TNM) stage is an independent risk factor for 1-year hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) recurrence but has insufficient predictive efficiency. We attempt to develop and validate a nomogram to predict 1-year recurrence in HCC and improve the predictive efficiency of the TNM stage.

Methods

A total of 541 HCC patients were enrolled in the study. The risk score (RS) model was established with the logistic least absolute shrinkage and selector operation algorithm. The predictive nomogram was further validated in the internal testing cohort and external validation cohort. The area under the receiver operating characteristic curves (AUCs), decision curves and clinical impact curves were used to evaluate the predictive accuracy and clinical value of the nomogram.

Results

In the training cohort, we identified a RS model consisting of five stage-related genes (NUP62, EHMT2, RANBP1, MSH6 and FHL2) for recurrence at 1 year. The 1-year disease-free survival of patients was worse in the high-risk group than in the low-risk group (P < 0.0001), and 1-year recurrence was more likely in the high-risk group (Hazard ratio: 3.199, P < 0.001). The AUC of the nomogram was 0.739, 0.718 and 0.693 in the training, testing and external validation cohort, respectively, and these values were larger than the corresponding AUC of the TNM stage (0.681, 0.688 and 0.616, respectively).

Conclusions

A RS model consisting of five stage-related genes was successfully identified for predicting 1-year HCC recurrence. Then, a novel nomogram based on the RS model and TNM stage to predict 1-year HCC recurrence was also developed and validated.

Construction of Nomograms for Predicting Lung and Bone Metastases in Patients with Intrahepatic Cholangiocarcinoma and Identification of Patients Who Can Benefit from Chemotherapy

OBJECTIVE

The purpose of our study is to build nomograms for predicting the possibility of lung metastasis (LM) and bone metastasis (BM) in patients with intrahepatic cholangiocarcinoma (ICC).

METHODS

1527 patients diagnosed with ICC between 2010 and 2016 were collected from the Surveillance, Epidemiology, and End Results (SEER) database. Univariable and multivariable logistic regression analyses were used to recognize the predictors of LM and BM, respectively. Then two nomograms were established. We applied the C-index, calibration plot, receiver-operating characteristic (ROC) curve, and decision curve analysis (DCA) to evaluate the novel nomograms. The maximum values of the Youden indexes from the ROC curves were utilized to select the cutoff points of the nomograms. The Kaplan-Meier survival curves were used to evaluate the effect of chemotherapy in different groups. The bootstrap resampling method was chosen for internal validation.

RESULTS

Five predictors for LM and three predictors for BM were identified, and two nomograms were constructed. The nomograms had high values of C-indexes, reaching 0.821 (95% CI 0.772-0.871) for LM and 0.759 (95% CI 0.700-0.818) for BM. C-indexes of 0.814 for LM and 0.749 for BM were also observed in internal validation. The calibration plots, ROC curves, and DCAs exhibited favorable performances for predicting LM and BM. The cutoff points of total points in nomograms were 108 for LM and 144 for BM, which could distinguish between high-risk and low-risk groups for LM and BM. Chemotherapy is suggested to undergo for patients in high-risk groups.

CONCLUSIONS

The nomograms could assess the possibility of LM and BM in ICC patients and determine the optimal treatment.

Incidence and survival trends for appendiceal mucinous adenocarcinoma: an analysis of 3237 patients in the Surveillance, Epidemiology, and End Results database

Aim: To characterize the epidemiology of appendiceal mucinous adenocarcinoma. Methods: Prognostic factors were evaluated with univariate and multivariate analyses. The results were used to generate a nomogram. Results: The incidence of appendiceal mucinous adenocarcinoma showed a significant upward trend. Multivariate Cox analysis identified 11 independent prognostic factors. The nomogram was based on independent risk factors that were significant in multivariate Cox analysis, and the concordance-index for overall survival and cancer-specific survival were 0.76 (95% CI: 0.71-0.79) and 0.74 (95% CI: 0.70-0.79), respectively. Conclusion: Advanced age, single relationship status, male sex, black race, the presence of distant and regional lymph node metastases, poor differentiation or lack of differentiation, advanced SEER extent of disease, cancer-directed surgery and chemotherapy were independently associated with prognosis.