Motor vehicle fatalities during Memorial Day weekends, 1981-2016

Ironic effects of political ideology and increased risk-taking in Ohio drivers during COVID-19 shutdown

In March 2020, Ohio, along with many other states, enacted a stay-at-home order (i.e., "shutdown") to limit the spread of COVID-19. As a result of lower traffic, crashes should also have declined. We investigated whether crash rates declined in Ohio during the stay-at-home order and explore possible predictors for the decrease, such as reduced travel in compliance with the order, along with speeding, alcohol, and drug use. In addition, we examined whether support for President Trump would relate to greater travel and greater crashes (particularly during the stay-at-home order, when greater travel indicated lower compliance). The overall rate of crashes fell as people stayed home, mainly due to a decline in minor crashes. In contrast, the rate of serious crashes did not fall. Instead, percentage of alcohol-related crashes increased during the stay-at-home order, and the reduction in travel was associated with greater speeding-related crashes. Because alcohol and speeding tend to increase crash severity, these two factors may explain why severe crash rates were not reduced by lower traffic. Instead, it appears that those drivers remaining on the roads during the shutdown may have been more prone to risky behaviors, evidenced by a greater percentage of alcohol-related crashes across the state during the shutdown and greater speed-related crashes in counties with less traffic. In addition, county-level support for President Trump indirectly predicted greater rates of crashes (of all types) via increased travel (i.e., lower compliance with the shutdown), even while controlling for county-level income, rurality, and Appalachian region. Importantly, this mediated effect was stronger during the weeks of the shutdown, when greater travel indicated lower compliance. Thus, lower compliance with the stay-at-home order and increased risky driving behaviors by remaining drivers may explain why lower traffic did not lead to lower serious crashes.

Daylight saving time affects European mortality patterns

Daylight saving time (DST) consists in a one-hour advancement of legal time in spring offset by a backward transition of the same magnitude in fall. It creates a minimal circadian misalignment that could disrupt sleep and homoeostasis in susceptible individuals and lead to an increased incidence of pathologies and accidents during the weeks immediately following both transitions. How this shift affects mortality dynamics on a large population scale remains, however, unknown. This study examines the impact of DST on all-cause mortality in 16 European countries for the period 1998-2012. It shows that mortality decreases in spring and increases in fall during the first two weeks following each DST transition. Moreover, the alignment of time data around DST transition dates revealed a septadian mortality pattern (lowest on Sundays, highest on Mondays) that persists all-year round, irrespective of seasonal variations, in men and women aged above 40.

Increased motor vehicle fatalities Tuesday through Thursday during the US Thanksgiving holiday (1980-2018)

Traffic crashes remain a leading cause of death in the United States; holidays are known to have increased travel and traffic fatalities. Our purpose was to determine which days during Thanksgiving had the highest crash fatality risk compared to non-holiday periods. Using time series and binomial approximations, we analyzed Fatality Analysis Reporting System data (1980-2018) with a Monday-Sunday holiday and matching comparisons the weeks before and after. Fatalities included 31,263 during the holiday, 30,361 the previous week, and 29,399 the following week. Deadliest days during the holiday were Saturday (16.7% of fatalities) and Wednesday (16.0%), but odds of a traffic fatality (vs. non-holiday) were highest Wednesday [odds ratio (OR) 1.35, 95% confidence interval (CI) 1.29-1.40], Thanksgiving (OR 1.18, 95% CI 1.13-1.23), and Tuesday (OR 1.12, 95% CI 1.06-1.17). The 35 excess holiday fatalities per year may have limited practical significance considering increased holiday travel.