Effects of stochasticity in early life history on steepness and population growth rate estimates: an illustration on Atlantic bluefin tuna

Influence of temperature on hatching success of skipjack tuna (Katsuwonus pelamis): Implications for spawning availability of warm habitats

Exploring the effects of water temperature on egg development in skipjack tuna (Katsuwonus pelamis) has substantial implications for evaluations of wild spawning habitats. In the present study, we examined the hatching success and duration as a function of temperature from 21 to 33°C under captive environments. A high hatching rate of over 50% between 23 and 31°C was observed, with the shortest hatching duration at 31°C. Because the egg period is vulnerable to predators, a shortened hatching duration with warming water would be ecologically advantageous for K. pelamis, as its main spawning grounds are located in tropical areas.

Effects of environmental change and early-life stochasticity on Pacific bluefin tuna population growth

Species conservation and fisheries management require approaches that relate environmental conditions to population-level dynamics, especially because environmental conditions shift due to climate change. We combined an individual-level physiological model and a conceptually simple matrix population model to develop a novel tool that relates environmental change to population dynamics, and used this tool to analyze effects of environmental changes and early-life stochasticity on Pacific bluefin tuna (PBT) population growth. We found that (i) currently, PBT population experiences a positive growth rate, (ii) somewhat surprisingly, stochasticity in early life survival increases this growth rate, (iii) sexual maturation age strongly depends on food and temperature, (iv) current fishing pressure, though high, is tolerable as long as the environment is such that PBT mature in less than 9 years of age (maturation age of up to 10 is possible in some environments), (v) PBT population growth rate is much more susceptible to changes in juvenile survival than changes in total reproductive output or adult survival. These results suggest that, to be effective, fishing regulations need to (i) focus on smaller tuna (i.e., juveniles and young adults), and (ii) mitigate adverse effects of climate change by taking into the account how future environments may affect the population growth.

Global reconstruction of life-history strategies: A case study using tunas

Measuring the demographic parameters of exploited populations is central to predicting their vulnerability and extinction risk. However, current rates of population decline and species loss greatly outpace our ability to empirically monitor all populations that are potentially threatened.The scale of this problem cannot be addressed through additional data collection alone, and therefore it is a common practice to conduct population assessments based on surrogate data collected from similar species. However, this approach introduces biases and imprecisions that are difficult to quantify. Recent developments in hierarchical modelling have enabled missing values to be reconstructed based on the correlations between available life-history data, linking similar species based on phylogeny and environmental conditions.However, these methods cannot resolve life-history variability among populations or species that are closely placed spatially or taxonomically. Here, theoretically motivated constraints that align with life-history theory offer a new avenue for addressing this problem. We describe a Bayesian hierarchical approach that combines fragmented, multispecies and multi-population data with established life-history theory, in order to objectively determine similarity between populations based on trait correlations (life-history trade-offs) obtained from model fitting.We reconstruct 59 unobserved life-history parameters for 23 populations of tuna that sustain some of the world's most valuable fisheries. Testing by cross-validation across different scenarios indicated that life-histories were accurately reconstructed when information was available for other populations of the same species. The reconstruction of several traits was also accurate for species represented by a single population, although credible intervals increased dramatically. Synthesis and applications. The described Bayesian hierarchical method provides access to life-history traits that are difficult to measure directly and reconstructs missing life-history information useful for assessing populations and species that are directly or indirectly affected by human exploitation of natural resources. The method is particularly useful for examining populations that are spatially or taxonomically similar, and the reconstructed life-history strategies described for the principal market tunas have immediate application to the world-wide management of these fisheries.

Atlantic bluefin tuna spawn at suboptimal temperatures for their offspring

Life-history traits such as spawning migrations and timing of reproduction are adaptations to specific environmental constraints and seasonal cycles in many organisms' annual routines. In this study we analyse how offspring fitness constrains spawning phenology in a large migratory apex predator, the Atlantic bluefin tuna. The reproductive schedule of Atlantic bluefin tuna varies between spawning sites, suggesting plasticity to local environmental conditions. Generally, temperature is considered to be the main constraint on tuna spawning phenology. We combine evidence from long-term field data, temperature-controlled rearing experiments on eggs and larvae, and a model of egg fitness, and show that Atlantic bluefin tuna do not spawn to optimize egg and larval temperature exposure. The timing of spawning leads to temperature exposure considerably lower than optimal at all spawning grounds across the Atlantic Ocean. The early spawning is constrained by thermal inhibition of egg hatching and larval growth rates, but some other factors must prevent later spawning. Matching offspring with ocean productivity and the prey peak might be an important driver for bluefin tuna spawning phenology. This finding is important for predictions of reproductive timing in future climate warming scenarios for bluefin tuna.

Impact of biology knowledge on the conservation and management of large pelagic sharks

Population growth rate, which depends on several biological parameters, is valuable information for the conservation and management of pelagic sharks, such as blue and shortfin mako sharks. However, reported biological parameters for estimating the population growth rates of these sharks differ by sex and display large variability. To estimate the appropriate population growth rate and clarify relationships between growth rate and relevant biological parameters, we developed a two-sex age-structured matrix population model and estimated the population growth rate using combinations of biological parameters. We addressed elasticity analysis and clarified the population growth rate sensitivity. For the blue shark, the estimated median population growth rate was 0.384 with a range of minimum and maximum values of 0.195–0.533, whereas those values of the shortfin mako shark were 0.102 and 0.007–0.318, respectively. The maturity age of male sharks had the largest impact for blue sharks, whereas that of female sharks had the largest impact for shortfin mako sharks. Hypotheses for the survival process of sharks also had a large impact on the population growth rate estimation. Both shark maturity age and survival rate were based on ageing validation data, indicating the importance of validating the quality of these data for the conservation and management of large pelagic sharks.

Spawning behaviour and post-spawning migration patterns of atlantic bluefin tuna (Thunnus thynnus) ascertained from satellite archival tags

Spawning behaviour of Atlantic bluefin tuna (Thunnus thynnus) was investigated using electronic satellite tags deployed in the western Mediterranean spawning ground, around the Balearic Islands (years 2009-2011). All the fish were tagged underwater and released within schools. In general, the fish tagged in the same year/school displayed common migratory trends. Following extended residency around the Balearic Islands, most tagged tuna crossed the Strait of Gibraltar heading for the North Atlantic. Discrepancies between the migratory tracks reconstructed from this and previous electronic tagging studies suggest that the bluefin tuna Mediterranean population may comprise distinct units exhibiting differing migratory behaviours. The diving behaviour varied between oceanic regions throughout the migratory pathways, the shallowest distribution taking place in the spawning ground and the deepest at the Strait of Gibraltar. A unique diving pattern was found on the majority of nights while the fish stayed at the spawning ground; it consisted of frequent and brief oscillatory movements up and down through the mixed layer, resulting in thermal profiles characterized by oscillations about the thermocline. Such a pattern is believed to reflect recent courtship and spawning activity. Reproductive parameters inferred from the analysis of vertical profiles are consistent with those estimated in previous studies based on biological samples.